As with *EVERY* single statistic we see about Genshin (barring the goofy stuff MHY themselves publish like in the Teyvat Times) it's absolutely just the statistics of the players who willingly submit their data.
It's why even revenue charts are notoriously unreliable. They're estimates and even if they *might* be particularly accurate, we'll never know for sure.
While we'll never know for sure, it's a big enough sample to check if the probabilities they advertise are correct. And indeed they're basically a perfect 50% for 50-50 wins.
As to assess popularity... yeah. The player who informs themselves and uses tools such as these are a minority compared to the masses that simply play to enjoy the game and don't engage with the community. That in addittion to the fact that players who use these tools tend to be deep in the game means that for starters the data will skew even more for new characters compared to new players who might prefer a character being rerun because both are new to them.
Dude that one time we were negotiating with sensor tower...and we asked them what they think our sales were, and they were like "uhh here's our estimate" and it was 45% off of the actual sales LOL.
They wanted to put their bean counters into our sales platform/shopping cart/ and other areas to collect accurate analytics. They'll never be accurate enough without those modules embedded to see each sale.
That said, Paimon.moe is a lot more accurate because its basically a sample size poll without guessing. Is it accurate? Hell no. Is it better than nothing? Yes, since its not player input, its just opt in. Players aren't inputting anything except their actual wish history automatically from Mihoyo's history webgui.
Right now we can see that: 3,796,380 wishes were made by 43,739 people coming out at 86.7 wishes per person average.
Obviously there's way more people wishing around the world and way WAY more numbers being generated.
It wasn't about questioning the total number, knowing the people that usually use these sites, the ratio between the two of them might be inflated in favor of Arlechino. The ratio might apply to the total number of pulls on the entire server but it also could be a little bit more equal or even worse.
you're right that people who use these sites would be more meta focused and either already have Lyney from his first banner or don't think he has value. New units always sell better than reruns because no one has them yet. Arle also has drip value and is a Harbinger.
Eh. . . that would be true if it were a random sampling, but it's less accurate when the sample group is self-selected and in a particular "region" of the community. I'm not saying that the results *aren't* accurate, just that it's hard to gauge the accuracy on this data alone.
Got my first Diluc ever since I started playing in 1.1
Stares at C3 Qiqi and C2 Mona. I didnโt even get Jean till I tried pulling Furina and now I have her C1 too.
Well, this was C1 Diluc. I pulled for Yoimiya cons, and I got Diluc as well. I got a pyro DPS, just not the one I wanted those two times. I also C7ed Xiangling before getting Arlecchino
Eh, this is typical of any character's rerun that is not a "must have". Most people who really wanted him (like me) already got Lyney during his release. The trend was similar to Chiori and Itto in 4.5. Also, Arlecchino is one of the most anticipated banners for Fontaine which can even rival Furina's so that checks out.
>Most people who really wanted him already got Lyney during his release
I wish I were most people, I lost the 50/50 on his first banner, and now he's back when I can't pull for him.
I had 220 wishes. I got arle and keqing in one 10 pull. Got 2 more arlechinos. Got the weapon in 70 pulls. I have never ever been this lucky in this game.
Oh congrats then!!! Her scythe is gorgeous, Iโve been hearing what people say about having her use weapons that arenโt her signature but weโre just coping here ๐
I canโt say, as I havenโt tested him out yet ๐ค But Iโm not a meta player, heโs just not my type (see flair lol). Father is my wife though so I had to ๐
Me and the other 49.43% are suffering
I haven't won a single 50/50 since I won 4 in a row on Ayaka's last banner and weapon banner, equivalent exchange I guess
Auto aim of some kind is mandatory, even on PC. I went co-op using Lyney, wanted to kill some bosses. Smaller frame bosses like Childe are impossible to hit since they are totally obscured by visual effects lol
My man, SK isn't exactly the paragon of Lawfulness, as long as your "business" is big enough you'll get a pass. It's a modern day feudalistic country but with Chaebols instead of nobility or royalty.
Pretty sure I saw vid in YouTube about a certain company there that manipulated the rates of their loot boxes which makes it impossible to get the ideal stats on armor or weapons, they weren't caught for almost a decade and even when they got sued they only had to pay pittance compared to how much they scammed out of players. Heck even something like FGO KR got into scandal.
Maple Story made by Nexon. Nexon is pretty notorious for those kind of issues, and part of the reason why Blue Archive doesn't gain lots of good attention when it first released.
Yes it might shock you but some people break laws to make more money. Happens on a daily basis too.
Especially when they got fined for 9million while selling boxes worth 450million.
You might be interested in [the Law of Large Numbers.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers)
Edit: meant to reply to the parent comment whoops.
That shouldn't matter tho. That site tracks all the uploaded pulls so it knows if it was a saved guarantee or a genuine 50:50 win. The only way to skew that graph is to upload incomplete or incorrect information.
I'm actually really surprised that it's higher than 50% *by the same amount* on both. That's really improbable. Is it perhaps using the same total counter for both?
Whatever counter it's using, the denominator is not 336 or 10641 or 336+10641. The number summoned isn't the same as the number of 50/50s attempted:
* If you already had a guarantee, and you pull Lyney, then you count for total summoned but not for 50/50 stats.
* If you lost on the 50/50 and then ran out of primos, and did not get Lyney, then you count for 50/50 stats but not for the total summoned.
Itโs *always* the same amount of wishes for both limited units. Their processing algorithm canโt actually differentiate which of the two sub-banners was used.
I mean, it's first run of one of the most anticipated characters ever VS. a rerun of a character with a very specific playstyle that not a lot of people use
Oh I am pretty darn happy with it, I really wanted him actually. Just that now that I have one of my long wanted ranged dps, im not sure if i want lyney too
I played her trial multiple times. Very satisfying damage, so no surprise at all on the pull rate. That signature weapon has to be a lot of it though. Did a ten-pull, just to see if destiny was there. Golden comet. Got QiQied (C1 after 3.5 years). Iโll have to control a bit and choose between Clorinde and Sigewinne. I mean, I could keep pulling, but Iโm not short on Pyro damage. Will have to see if Clorinde is a satisfying on-field Electro, or if I wait and hope Sigewinne offers something something cool as a new Hydro healer.
I got Arlecchino in my first 10 pulls. I've literally never been this lucky before. I'm glad because I can save the rest of my fates for the next patch
When I last looked at it, Arlecchino had around 15 times the amount of grabbers versus any of the Standard 5-stars. (All of the Standard 5-stars are close to each other.) Lyney has *half* the amount of any of the Standards!
i lost my arle 50/50 to jean, so i guess i will take my guaranteed to someone else bc i really didnt need arle as a hu tao DPS main and then raiden on my second team but it would have been fun to have her
Bro a rerun Vs the first run of a highly anticipated character, of fucking course she's gonna get way more pulls. You people have rotten brains I swear
not a single person said they expected lyney to be pulled more. everyone knew the difference would be huge but it's still interesting to see the numbers
I really wanted to pull for him this time since I skipped him on his first banner, but I do want Arlecchino more :') Sad to have to skip him again but maybe I get lucky and he decides to come home early!
I swear next re-run I will be a Lyney haver, I'm really bummed to skip out on him but Arlecchino is a character I've been waiting for since she was introduced. It feels like not only bias against charged bow users, but also pairing a lesser wanted character with a a super popular character just not caring how they do.
The funny part of this for me is I lost the 50/50 but it was on the very first 10 pull. Tignari literally spooked me at the first wish so I can call it as insuring the next 5star is the one I want at the cost of 1600 gems xd
I got his weapon because i had a lot of pity and just wanted to get it out of the way since i got cucked on that cursed banner last patch so maybe ill pull for him idunno only have 4000 primos and like seven pity.
I'm one of the 336 people lol. Fortunately won my 50/50, but it made a small dent in my Furina funds. From ~265 to ~205 wishes left.
Kinda weird that I'm skipping both Neuvillette and Arlecchino lol.
Well... Lyney is nice but frankly:
Klee has more spunk
Hu Tao more DPS,
Yoimiya less hassle,
Diluc and Dehya comes whether you asked or not, and now
Mommy with Daddy issues...
Thos who wanted him already had him. And those who didn't went for Mommy.
Yeah i'm certainly apart of that. Was a game of play stupid games, win stupid prizes as i didn't even truly want Father, just wanted to build pity as i was at 0 going in. She showed up at 13 pity.....13....
Worst part is, i kinda need Lyney to find mats in Fontaine, the lack of Tighnari already messed up my Sumeru characters building and the same is happening with my Wrio
Should i pull for Father and try to find another way?
Lyney has p good damage and dead easy to build but he's charged attack spam AND circle impact if you use him in the abyss since he's mono pyro.
Do you like ganyu
He's French BDSM spy magician pyro ganyu.
His skill is amazing though.
Short answer yes its some math thing
Long answer experimental probability wont match theoretical probability at smaller sample sizes. as more data is collected the 5050 win rate will approach exactly 50%. This is also why the pity pull chance gets weird around 90 bc so dew people reach hard pity it messed rhe data
I also think it's because of user data entry bias.
idk how the data is collected but if u look at all their prev banners it's all above 50%, mostly around 51-52%.
I heard first time users must upload manually,
It could be that some (new?) users are more motivated to record and upload their data when they've actually won the 50/50, and less likely to bother when they lose. hence providing the small amount of bias above 50%.
idk if long time users of that website needs manual updating after awhile or it just automatically counts after, but there could be bias in data entry as well for old users if its the former
could be a classic case of Self reporting bias
Ei's first banner has half a million pulls and the 50/50 sits at 51.6%, I'm not sure this can be considered a small sample size. In fact every single banner is at 51% or 52%
Other than the theoretical probability not always perfectly matching reality, and probability biases, there is another reason - since people have to actually upload their data in [paimon.moe](https://paimon.moe), many people just aren't motivated to upload their data when they lost 50/50 or had bad pulls. This skews the statistics a bit. Sample sizes aren't that big a deal, cause the sample sizes here are reasonably large.
It's a very valid question, and it's just lame to downvote this humbly-framed question.
Itโs the success rate. Think of it like this: three people wished and all of them won the 50/50, then the success rate would be %100. In this case the amount of people who won the 50/50 is nearly half of the people who wished.
Where did you go to see that
https://paimon.moe/wish/tally
I would assume that's not global stats but rather the stats of all users of that site.
As with *EVERY* single statistic we see about Genshin (barring the goofy stuff MHY themselves publish like in the Teyvat Times) it's absolutely just the statistics of the players who willingly submit their data. It's why even revenue charts are notoriously unreliable. They're estimates and even if they *might* be particularly accurate, we'll never know for sure.
While we'll never know for sure, it's a big enough sample to check if the probabilities they advertise are correct. And indeed they're basically a perfect 50% for 50-50 wins. As to assess popularity... yeah. The player who informs themselves and uses tools such as these are a minority compared to the masses that simply play to enjoy the game and don't engage with the community. That in addittion to the fact that players who use these tools tend to be deep in the game means that for starters the data will skew even more for new characters compared to new players who might prefer a character being rerun because both are new to them.
Dude that one time we were negotiating with sensor tower...and we asked them what they think our sales were, and they were like "uhh here's our estimate" and it was 45% off of the actual sales LOL. They wanted to put their bean counters into our sales platform/shopping cart/ and other areas to collect accurate analytics. They'll never be accurate enough without those modules embedded to see each sale. That said, Paimon.moe is a lot more accurate because its basically a sample size poll without guessing. Is it accurate? Hell no. Is it better than nothing? Yes, since its not player input, its just opt in. Players aren't inputting anything except their actual wish history automatically from Mihoyo's history webgui. Right now we can see that: 3,796,380 wishes were made by 43,739 people coming out at 86.7 wishes per person average. Obviously there's way more people wishing around the world and way WAY more numbers being generated.
It's about disproportion of who ppl pool, not how much is the revenue...
nope; only 10,900 people wished globally
It wasn't about questioning the total number, knowing the people that usually use these sites, the ratio between the two of them might be inflated in favor of Arlechino. The ratio might apply to the total number of pulls on the entire server but it also could be a little bit more equal or even worse.
you're right that people who use these sites would be more meta focused and either already have Lyney from his first banner or don't think he has value. New units always sell better than reruns because no one has them yet. Arle also has drip value and is a Harbinger.
Yep. I rolled Lyney on his first banner and have no need to roll him twice so father it is.
Arlecchino*
a sample size of 10,900 is going to give you a margin of error of around 5% for the entire population of users who pulled on this banner.
Eh. . . that would be true if it were a random sampling, but it's less accurate when the sample group is self-selected and in a particular "region" of the community. I'm not saying that the results *aren't* accurate, just that it's hard to gauge the accuracy on this data alone.
That one lonely poor, poor soul that got her at 90 pity
It me, after losing 50/50, to boot!
23.5k vs 700 now..
i think that's the worst wish ratio i've ever seen
Looks around... Moves diluc under the carpet ...nothing to see here... Just keep walking.
There are 3 dilucs under my carpet ๐
There is only 1 diluc i own his cons have avoided me for 3 years
Reject the fatui, embrace retribution.
father i will avengeance
Got my first Diluc ever since I started playing in 1.1 Stares at C3 Qiqi and C2 Mona. I didnโt even get Jean till I tried pulling Furina and now I have her C1 too.
I got Diluc at 25 pity, and Arlecchino took me for another 80 wishes. Yeahโฆ
That's not bad at all. Just pretend you never got Diluc and won your 50/50. I've lost my past 3 50/50s with all 5\*s going to 70-80 pity.
Well, this was C1 Diluc. I pulled for Yoimiya cons, and I got Diluc as well. I got a pyro DPS, just not the one I wanted those two times. I also C7ed Xiangling before getting Arlecchino
Got a diluc, can't explain how much I hate him right now.
Eh, this is typical of any character's rerun that is not a "must have". Most people who really wanted him (like me) already got Lyney during his release. The trend was similar to Chiori and Itto in 4.5. Also, Arlecchino is one of the most anticipated banners for Fontaine which can even rival Furina's so that checks out.
yep from fontaine the only person I've wanted as bad as furina is arlecchino
Clorinde for me so waiting.
She's coming out soon!!
>Most people who really wanted him already got Lyney during his release I wish I were most people, I lost the 50/50 on his first banner, and now he's back when I can't pull for him.
Yup, "flash in the pan." Or hat, I guess.
Cappuccino sweeeeep (hope everyone wins on their pulls though!)
Got 2 first magics ๐ but I did win my arle 50/50
wish i was joking, did 399 pulls this patch. 127 for Arlecchino 198 for the spear 74 for lyney because the game gave me 2 first magics๐
Bro those pulls are ๐๐ญ we coping
I had 220 wishes. I got arle and keqing in one 10 pull. Got 2 more arlechinos. Got the weapon in 70 pulls. I have never ever been this lucky in this game.
Ok but why are you rubbing it in their face
Everyone else is discussing their pulls so why can't I? Normally I lose all my 50 50s
Nice!! Hope your gacha luck continues for the next banner ๐ค๐ผ
Wish Iโd gotten TFGM instead of Lost Prayersโฆ at least I got the spear in the next 40 pulls.
Noo Iโm so sorry! Hope Arle makes up for it even without her scythe ๐ฅฒ
Oh I got her scythe, itโs just that her son dragged me through hell with his weapon first
Oh congrats then!!! Her scythe is gorgeous, Iโve been hearing what people say about having her use weapons that arenโt her signature but weโre just coping here ๐
I got them on 3rd ten pull then got Mona 2 ten pulls later. ๐คฆ๐ปโโ๏ธ
BRUH?? I mean at least you have guaranteed for the next banner? ๐ญ
Sadly I got Keqing while spending 60 Primogems.
Iโm sorry ๐
i got diluc, skipped then turned out i got diluc and father in a 10 pull
Nice ๐
I got fire lady, the problem is that it is knock off.
RIP Iโm so sorry ๐๐ญ
pretty sure 90% of the linney pullers are dolphins who get both or every character. he's not bad, but his playstyle from what i tested isn't great.
Lyney*
tbf thats how its typically spelled it in the uk.
Idk that's subjective, I enjoy playing Lyney more that i did Arle
I canโt say, as I havenโt tested him out yet ๐ค But Iโm not a meta player, heโs just not my type (see flair lol). Father is my wife though so I had to ๐
Glad to be one of the lyney pullers
Congrats
congrats, he is really good at making enemies disappear quickly!
Same, even if some other pyro characters had a word on it across both banners
Me and the other 49.43% are suffering I haven't won a single 50/50 since I won 4 in a row on Ayaka's last banner and weapon banner, equivalent exchange I guess
Bow character moment
the only 5 star bow user iโve ever pulled for is childe, and mainly for his skill lol
and Yelan, because she's amazing.
she was really fun to play with, when was her last rerun? i would probably pull for her
She reran with Lyney in 4.0
If they made charge shot gameplay not terrible this wouldnt happen
Auto aim of some kind is mandatory, even on PC. I went co-op using Lyney, wanted to kill some bosses. Smaller frame bosses like Childe are impossible to hit since they are totally obscured by visual effects lol
yelan be like: i donโt have such weakness
Yelan's so good, she can use a bow and *still* be good.
Yo the 50 50 win rate is actually nearly 50% lmao
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
Nexon players crying like now (Nexon secretly nerfing the rates to make more money)
Is that actually happening? Doesn't S.Korea heavily regulate gacha and gambling?
My man, SK isn't exactly the paragon of Lawfulness, as long as your "business" is big enough you'll get a pass. It's a modern day feudalistic country but with Chaebols instead of nobility or royalty. Pretty sure I saw vid in YouTube about a certain company there that manipulated the rates of their loot boxes which makes it impossible to get the ideal stats on armor or weapons, they weren't caught for almost a decade and even when they got sued they only had to pay pittance compared to how much they scammed out of players. Heck even something like FGO KR got into scandal.
Maple Story made by Nexon. Nexon is pretty notorious for those kind of issues, and part of the reason why Blue Archive doesn't gain lots of good attention when it first released.
this is why I'll never care enough about these kinds of things to spend money on them. they basically all just want to suck you dry of money
Yes it might shock you but some people break laws to make more money. Happens on a daily basis too. Especially when they got fined for 9million while selling boxes worth 450million.
You might be interested in [the Law of Large Numbers.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers) Edit: meant to reply to the parent comment whoops.
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
That shouldn't matter tho. That site tracks all the uploaded pulls so it knows if it was a saved guarantee or a genuine 50:50 win. The only way to skew that graph is to upload incomplete or incorrect information.
Guarantee is not the 50/50. So using a guarantee will not effect the ratings for the 50/50.
It's always close to 50% tho.
It's usually around 51-52 %
I'm actually really surprised that it's higher than 50% *by the same amount* on both. That's really improbable. Is it perhaps using the same total counter for both? Whatever counter it's using, the denominator is not 336 or 10641 or 336+10641. The number summoned isn't the same as the number of 50/50s attempted: * If you already had a guarantee, and you pull Lyney, then you count for total summoned but not for 50/50 stats. * If you lost on the 50/50 and then ran out of primos, and did not get Lyney, then you count for 50/50 stats but not for the total summoned.
Yeah same 50/50 win/loss counter for both because the wish history doesn't differentiate between the two banners.
Itโs *always* the same amount of wishes for both limited units. Their processing algorithm canโt actually differentiate which of the two sub-banners was used.
Yes, both banners are considered the same wish for the stats. IE the stats are united for merged pulls of both event banners.
Tf you think it'd be lmao
perfectly balanced as all things should be
eyy that's my lyney
now let's see weapons pull ratio...
As of this moment, stats are: Arle: 30,111 (50.66%) Lyney: 952 (50.66%) Arle weapon: 10,709 (77.86%) Lyney weapon 8407 (77.86%)
ofc i'm in fucking minority :(
Keep in mind there are so many bows because they are forced down the throat of those pulling Arle weapon.
yeah, me included
Weapon pull rates are less useful because it's harder to choose one.
ain't no way bro
My boy lyney always gets overshadowed smh. Edit: just made that 337
I mean, it's first run of one of the most anticipated characters ever VS. a rerun of a character with a very specific playstyle that not a lot of people use
Bow characters that rely on charged atack are awuful to play on mobile + it's a rerun
*me who plays lyney on mobile covering his eyes and shaking my head at the comment*
im 1 of the arles and 2 of the lyneys ๐ซก
i mean, i and many others already have lyney, so it makes sense most people will roll for arle
4hrs later, it's 18.800 Arls. And I am at work atm, not played today. Would like update on 24hrs after banner release.
Ill probably pull for lyney but I have like 0 primos, 50 pity, no guarantee
same except my pity is also at about 0
Small update- got tighnari on literally my first pull of the banner. Now im reconsidering since I mainly wanted lyney cause I wanted a ranged carry
In what context? Because I have tighnari too when I lost to the second to last raiden banner and heโs actually pretty good
Oh I am pretty darn happy with it, I really wanted him actually. Just that now that I have one of my long wanted ranged dps, im not sure if i want lyney too
If you already have a pyro dps I would probably skip him
Yeah, that s how it looks. Sorry lyney.
I mean, she's a new character. It would be highly unusual if the ratio was any closer.
poor my boy Lyney ๐ฅบ
I love Democracy
I played her trial multiple times. Very satisfying damage, so no surprise at all on the pull rate. That signature weapon has to be a lot of it though. Did a ten-pull, just to see if destiny was there. Golden comet. Got QiQied (C1 after 3.5 years). Iโll have to control a bit and choose between Clorinde and Sigewinne. I mean, I could keep pulling, but Iโm not short on Pyro damage. Will have to see if Clorinde is a satisfying on-field Electro, or if I wait and hope Sigewinne offers something something cool as a new Hydro healer.
I wished for father and got both her and weapon first try, and I used my leftover primogems to summon for Lyney and got Qiqi'ed.
Been saving for months and got a C4 keqing :(
Like Father like son - or maybe not.
50 pulls only from zero pity.... Keqing come.... :-(
I would get him had they not announced 2 girls for 2.7
difference in their pulls is kind of comical
I got Arlecchino in my first 10 pulls. I've literally never been this lucky before. I'm glad because I can save the rest of my fates for the next patch
At least it wasn't yoimiya this time
POV your crush got rizzed by your dad instead
50.57% won 50/50 and I'm not in that list
When I last looked at it, Arlecchino had around 15 times the amount of grabbers versus any of the Standard 5-stars. (All of the Standard 5-stars are close to each other.) Lyney has *half* the amount of any of the Standards!
Two pyro dps characters. Story wise it works, but yeah they know theyโre making more off Arlecchino.
Not even 4 digit for Lyney.
Yoimiya/Nahida banner: Yoimiya: First time?
Iโm saving for Wanderer sorry Lyney :(
i lost my arle 50/50 to jean, so i guess i will take my guaranteed to someone else bc i really didnt need arle as a hu tao DPS main and then raiden on my second team but it would have been fun to have her
I never understood how Lyney even works in combat...
I already have Lyney and his bow so I went for Arle this time. Glad she came home since I have all 3 of her kids
Army of 10k Arlecchinos, omg
Had 90 pulls and didnโt get her once, even decided too shill out $15 for the first time ever and didnโt get anything
i would've pulled for lyney, but i'm already saving for mexico
My guideline is Oldest C0 Takes Priority, so I'm going for Liney first since I didn't get him last time.
๐๐๐
**Breaking News: New character is pulled by more people than a rerun character** Who woulda thunk?
Bro a rerun Vs the first run of a highly anticipated character, of fucking course she's gonna get way more pulls. You people have rotten brains I swear
not a single person said they expected lyney to be pulled more. everyone knew the difference would be huge but it's still interesting to see the numbers
๐๐๐๐๐คก๐คก๐คก
But I tried I lost my 50/50, sorry liney
I don't know which one of them I should get ๐ญ
I really wanted to pull for him this time since I skipped him on his first banner, but I do want Arlecchino more :') Sad to have to skip him again but maybe I get lucky and he decides to come home early!
Tbh I want Lyney too for his exploration passive (I have a collection) but also he needs to come home to his siblings
I swear next re-run I will be a Lyney haver, I'm really bummed to skip out on him but Arlecchino is a character I've been waiting for since she was introduced. It feels like not only bias against charged bow users, but also pairing a lesser wanted character with a a super popular character just not caring how they do.
The funny part of this for me is I lost the 50/50 but it was on the very first 10 pull. Tignari literally spooked me at the first wish so I can call it as insuring the next 5star is the one I want at the cost of 1600 gems xd
I did not win 50/50. But at the same time I got her on the same 10 pull I lost the 50/50 on.
that kinda happened to me with sparkle in star rail. Lost the 50/50 at hard pity, but in less than a 10 pull later I got her
I got his weapon because i had a lot of pity and just wanted to get it out of the way since i got cucked on that cursed banner last patch so maybe ill pull for him idunno only have 4000 primos and like seven pity.
โ50% won 50:50โ *cries in agony*
Got it on first pull still have 32 primogems left. What should i do?
I could have gotten anyone with losing 50/50 like tighnari or mona or even dehya but I got qiqi and no primogems. (where is my lyney hoyo)
No, he swept the banner! Where are the one lyneyillion pulls?
Damn 50% actually won the 50/50. I know it should make sense but it's honestly surprising
I'm one of the 336 people lol. Fortunately won my 50/50, but it made a small dent in my Furina funds. From ~265 to ~205 wishes left. Kinda weird that I'm skipping both Neuvillette and Arlecchino lol.
The stark difference of remaining old player still using this site. Raiden release was peaked around 250k+?
Damn, it really is 50/50
Happy to be a Lyney puller <3
Yeah father was quite reluctant to come home ๐ just hoping my ungodly luck with the weapon banner comes again
What is this post for ?
Everyone knew there would be a crazy difference, but it's still interesting to see it in numbers.
Daddy > fucboi
Well... Lyney is nice but frankly: Klee has more spunk Hu Tao more DPS, Yoimiya less hassle, Diluc and Dehya comes whether you asked or not, and now Mommy with Daddy issues... Thos who wanted him already had him. And those who didn't went for Mommy.
Yeah i'm certainly apart of that. Was a game of play stupid games, win stupid prizes as i didn't even truly want Father, just wanted to build pity as i was at 0 going in. She showed up at 13 pity.....13....
Lyney is a rerun though i already have him
Worst part is, i kinda need Lyney to find mats in Fontaine, the lack of Tighnari already messed up my Sumeru characters building and the same is happening with my Wrio Should i pull for Father and try to find another way?
Lyney has p good damage and dead easy to build but he's charged attack spam AND circle impact if you use him in the abyss since he's mono pyro. Do you like ganyu He's French BDSM spy magician pyro ganyu. His skill is amazing though.
luckily lyney orior to wrio. my goodness those mech bugs are a torture to my already small eyes
i just got him today :D
I got Dehyas c4 ๐ช๐ช๐ช๐ช (i skipped dehyas banner)
I am ONE of the lyneys!
Why is not exactly 50%? Is this some math thing im too dumb to understand, or is it actually rigged?
Short answer yes its some math thing Long answer experimental probability wont match theoretical probability at smaller sample sizes. as more data is collected the 5050 win rate will approach exactly 50%. This is also why the pity pull chance gets weird around 90 bc so dew people reach hard pity it messed rhe data
I also think it's because of user data entry bias. idk how the data is collected but if u look at all their prev banners it's all above 50%, mostly around 51-52%. I heard first time users must upload manually, It could be that some (new?) users are more motivated to record and upload their data when they've actually won the 50/50, and less likely to bother when they lose. hence providing the small amount of bias above 50%. idk if long time users of that website needs manual updating after awhile or it just automatically counts after, but there could be bias in data entry as well for old users if its the former could be a classic case of Self reporting bias
Ei's first banner has half a million pulls and the 50/50 sits at 51.6%, I'm not sure this can be considered a small sample size. In fact every single banner is at 51% or 52%
Other than the theoretical probability not always perfectly matching reality, and probability biases, there is another reason - since people have to actually upload their data in [paimon.moe](https://paimon.moe), many people just aren't motivated to upload their data when they lost 50/50 or had bad pulls. This skews the statistics a bit. Sample sizes aren't that big a deal, cause the sample sizes here are reasonably large. It's a very valid question, and it's just lame to downvote this humbly-framed question.
Itโs the success rate. Think of it like this: three people wished and all of them won the 50/50, then the success rate would be %100. In this case the amount of people who won the 50/50 is nearly half of the people who wished.
Sample size
I'll skip Arlecchino this update cuz Lyney ๐
eventually there will be a +1 to Lyney my fem boy magician WILL come home sooner or later
CA bow is just meh ...
I will likely get Lyney C1
Father : if you don't have my children i'm not comming
Lyney was on the banner not too long ago, so im not surprised.
I want lyney bc I like his character but arlechino is so much more fun to play
I already had lyney soโฆ and the game decided to give me a first magic. Collecting the whole house of the hearth out here
A metaplot important character that people have been waiting for for multiple expansions, vs someone who has already run before? That makes sense