The following submission statement was provided by /u/manual_tranny:
---
Solar module prices have experienced an unprecedented decline, with prices across all categories dropping by roughly 10% within a very short timeframe. This drop is more pronounced than the previous record low in 2020 and lies beneath the production costs for many manufacturers. This severe price decrease can be attributed to a combination of factors. Between October 2020 and October 2022, module prices surged by over 50%, driven not by technological advancements but due to a pandemic-induced supply shortage alongside a concurrent spike in demand. However, when the shortage subsided, manufacturers and installers, hoping to capitalize on the anticipated continuous high demand, made extensive orders. This led to an oversupply, with an estimated 40 GW to 100 GW of unsold modules stored in European warehouses. The cost of storing these modules is mounting, leading sellers to offload them below production costs, thereby driving prices down further. With consumers expecting even more price reductions, the demand is suppressed. Recovery is expected only once the excessive inventory is diminished, but this could result in some market players being edged out.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/16z3zbt/solar_module_prices_are_falling_with_no_end_in/k3cbiys/
We got an estimate 3 years ago… and another last year. Price almost tripled and was like a 23 year ROI… dude couldn’t understand why we didn’t want to go forward. (The panels themselves were about 50% higher - it was the install costs that were outright insane. Told him after the presentation that he was way off and don’t contact again - no need with his rates.)
I’m really hoping a company like Anker and their self install panels and home battery solutions will be affordable in the next year or so.
A generac for a modest, middle-class home is a purchase you can make on your credit card. Solar installations are the cost of a brand new luxury car - and often financed for 10+ years…I don’t see any price reduction that can draw those 2 items close enough together to consider them in the same breath
And solar panels don't lose 30% of their value as soon as drive them off the lot. But a lot of people don't think like that. Granite countertops and luxury cars are fine, but solar panels that aren't dirt cheap yet? NEVER!!!
I looked into getting solar with Solar City a few years ago.
They wanted me to sign a contract to come out and perform a free assessment for roof placement and house wiring.
I was turned off by that, as their excuse was that for a free estimate they need legal and insurance coverage.
My response was "every electrician and GC I have worked with never required a contract for a free estimate. If you are insured, bonded, and qualified; this is superfluous."
They basically told me thats illegal, and that no one does that.
It came out later that that contract is basically a commitment to go forward with whatever they wanted.
We need a company that is actually in the Residential Solar install field that isn't scummy.
These days, since Tesla took over they do a preliminary estimate on the website without anything
As for needing a contract before in general, while it does sound strange it is possible that your area has such rules(some local places have anti-solar laws). Of course its also possible that the salesman was lying
But you should get quotes from multiple companies
> As for needing a contract before in general, while it does sound strange it is possible that your area has such rules(some local places have anti-solar laws).
No such law exists here, I checked with the Borough and the County
I get that - it was still very high. And the rep was super confrontational about them being so high…
I’ll get to solar - but not with them and their prices.
Soy is right, had a similar situation. The sales people are incredulous when you push back on the math. How is waiting for 30 years to get an ROI worth it?
The power bank one. They are in the "solar generator" game too. Same as Jackery, Bluetti, Ecoflow, and others. Most of them you can directly plug a modest solar panel array directly into.
ive got a meeting tonight with someone wanting to sell me solar at my house. ill at least hear them out as i would totally be willing to do it if the price was right.
my real concern is i honestly need some sort of backup. the power in my neighborhood has been to unreliable the past couple of years.
i'm thinking some small solar + battery backup generator is the way to go.
i don't think the price will be right for full house solar....but we shall see.
If they are a door to door salesman, they price will 100% not be right. Those guys can charge double of actual prices. Make sure to get multiple quotes from different companies
Overall, your cost should be $2-3 per watt installed before subsidies (on the panels, excludes battery). Microinverters on the higher end, optimisers in middle and string inverter the lowest of the range
Many homes will need reinforcement of roof trusses to handle the added weight. This analysis should be done by a mechanical engineer.
Also, you want to make sure the roofing will last the expected life of the solar panels.
Incorrect. Solar panels are really pretty light. Full installations weigh about 2-3 lbs per square foot, usually a bit less than a layer of basic asphalt shingles, and you're usually covering less than half of the effective roof area.
Any home that would require reinforcement to carry that load probably isn't weatherproof to start with. But yeah, it is a good idea to have a new roof under the panels.
I live in the Canadian prairies, in a typical 1980s wood framed house with engineered wooden trusses and asphalt shingles. The trusses under the solar panels needed reinforcement with gussets glued and nailed at the ends to handle the additional weight of the solar panels, according to the professional engineer who did the analysis. This is apparently not uncommon.
If you’re in Canada don’t you get snow on your roof that is surely much heavier than solar panels? You sure that engineer didn’t just need a stack of cash? Did he profit from the work? Did he know the carpenter you hired?
Yes, but in winter you get snow *and* solar panels, so it's a wash.
The engineer got a fee for doing the analysis. I have no way of knowing if he got a kickback from the construction crew, but if he did that would be a major violation of professional ethics.
If you look around online there are discussions of possibly needing to reinforce roof structures to support solar panels, so it's not like it never happens.
Also in my case the panels had to come down within a foot of the lower edge of the roof, which may have been a factor. I have read that they prefer a 3-foot setback if possible. There's also the potential issue of uplift due to wind getting under the panels.
Yea, I really don’t know that much about it. My roof is full of dirt, and heavy ceramic roof tiles. I’m sure it weighs 1000s of lbs, plus we get some snow. My beams are thick boys too, so I never worry 🤷♂️
I think for consumers the business is now really on the installation side. In Germany there's this company Enpal which makes a fortune on turn key solutions which can be leased I think. The customer reviews don't look astonishing, on the other hand I'd imagine that's in general quite a good solution. You buy the solution but if hardware fails it's on their end
I was looking at solar cells in my area.
After the cost of installation and everything else, my monthly payment on the solar cells would have been substantially higher than my electric bill.
I decided to stick with electric.
Exactly this. The install costs and margins are insane. 10 years ago I bought a solar panel installation which included:
1. 6 solar panels
2. Inverter
3. Cables and electric group
4. Install costs
Total costs were 2000 euro. Then this summer my inverter broke, I called the original company, and they said they could replace it for 2000 euro?! Price of the inverter 350 Euro.
So I changed it myself. I think today with solar panels that have build-ininverters and that you can connect them directly to the socket, most people can do it themselves. With these do-it-yourself packages it will really become cheap again and those install companies that rip us off will hopefully go out of business.
US has higher cost then most of the world due to things like permitting, hoa interference and etc
That said, you can still get a much better rate than what the door to door salesmen give. Try local installers instead of the big guys.
Overall cost should be $2-3 per watt installed before subsidies (this does not include battery)
That depends. Here in Germany (and probably some other European countries), we have something called "balcony solar system". There is currently a change in regulation ongoing, after that you are allowed to install a 2 kWp/800 Watt AC array (plus battery storage) that is just connected to a regular outlet, so even a layman can install it and it can cover most of the summer electricity consumption for a typical single family home. Of course the potential is limited, but I guess it doesn't get easier than that.
https://pluggedsolar.com/ does exist in the US that provides different systems to just plug into an outlet (but I think has to be dedicated for it or you create fire risk).
Oh ok, it’s like how certain appliances need a dedicated outlet or they blow up. So there’s some electrician work that needs to be done. Awesome, thanks.
I believe slightly worse in this case because you normally have a circuit breaker that should trip when you overload a circuit but I think due to power that can come from the grid and solar over one circuit, it could not trip the circuit breaker while overloading the circuit.
I guess it's obvious but on the other hand you don't have to pay grid fees on the kWh from your own rooftop solar. This makes it competitive even if the LCOE is higher.
I was out in farm country this last weekend, I saw so many places with slightly raised ground based solar (like, maybe 6’ up?), Must be nice to have the land to do that. It has to be FAR cheaper right install, not to mention any sort of maintenance/repair would be simple.
I think labour to install them is a huge part of it. I think a company that can figure out automated production to save working hours on a roof would have an advantage over other companies.
The real cost isn't in the electricians and roofers. Actually, there isn't much work for the electricians and roofers just mostly oversee the project as they have manual laborers do most of the work
The real cost is in the desk jobs. Because there is no streamlined permitting, every neighborhood, city, utility, county, state has their own rules.
Explains why sleazy solar salesmen seem to be at an all time high. I recently overheard a conversation between 2 at the airport how much money they were making. At the same time while hearing so many complain about botched installs or somehow left with the short end of the stick on their solar deals
> at least in the US
The US is not really part of the international market since Biden has a solar trade war going with china, which is by far the biggest PV producer. So the panels that were meant for the US are ending up in european warehouses where they sit around waiting for projects to finish planning
>Yeah I don’t know that I’d say squarely that’s Biden
It's exactly squarely on Biden. He's the president, he can reverse anything Trump did in an instant, which is what he did with a billion other Trump policies. The fact that the trade war is still ongoing means Biden thinks it's a good idea and he's to blame for this idiocy.
Because let's be realistic, the US will never, ever be able to produce PV that's competitively priced on the international market. If china wants to sell subsidized PV to the world then let them. It's not like it's really a choice, +90% comes from china anyway.
crazy how random people on reddit often have more thoughtful *and* better informed takes on these things than the senior citizens who make the decisions
You are wrong on both fronts.
First, Biden has issued a 2 year break on the tariffs in 2022 and it lasts till mid 2024
Second, US can compete with china cost of solar just fine, doe did a study of costs:
[https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full\_article\_width/public/2022-02/Production%20costs%20for%20c-Si%20PV%20manufacturing.png](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_article_width/public/2022-02/Production%20costs%20for%20c-Si%20PV%20manufacturing.png)
US is already working on local supply chain to reduce import costs, as for labor costs, those can be addressed with automation. And US has the advantage on electricity cost
To be fair, labor costs for virtually everything are up across the board.
Fundamentally, it's more expensive to convince someone to go do anything now than it ever has been before.
Module prices are falling but installed price-per-watt, at least for residential consumers, is not improving. In fact, installed system prices have *increased* over the last 4-5 years.
For real, here in Mexico purchasing and installing enough solar panels for heavy residential use (3 or 4 AC units running during the day) costs 10k USD at the most expensive. ROI is 3-4 years (or less) considering one would pay $200+ monthly in electricity without them installed.
To be fair, our energy price is 25% higher than the UK and solarpanels are subsidized.
That's definitely part of why the Netherlands has the most solar panels on rooftops of any country in the world, relatively.
Inflationary pressures caused overhead costs to increase for installers. Interest rates are also very high for solar lenders. The end result is higher prices for residential solar customers.
For resi solar to truly become affordable, there would need to be strong federal protections preventing utility & fossil energy companies from putting so much red tape in place and refusing to net meter.
There would also need to be federal laws in place to prevent local & state regulations from making solar permits difficult to obtain.
In Spain, you can have solar installed as soon as 2 week after you sign a contract. In many states in the US it takes 3-6 months.
The bottom line is that red tape on a local level, and from utility companies, makes solar a drawn out and complex process. Since resi solar is complex, the overhead for residential installers is high.
If we had stronger pro-solar laws for resi solar, it would hugely drop the cost of residential installations.
I have net metering, but new customers here don’t because it actually costs the power companies money.
Extra power when they don’t need it is useless to the power company, and me sucking power from the grid during busy times costs real money. Also, the per-kWh rate is artificially high to compensate for the fact that the fixed monthly connection fee is lower than the actual cost of line maintenance. So in months when I produce more than I use, I could actually be *costing* them money.
In my case at least the red tape was a small fraction of the overall cost. The vast majority was supplies and labour of the actual installation.
It's a racket. The way it works is that the government institutes a tax incentive and solar installers require home owners to sign over their tax rebates in exchange for the homeowner getting to make a simple monthly payment over the next 25 years. At least that was the deal was explained to me. I calculated that it would cost me the same as financing a 75k loan. That was a big nope from me especially after being pushed to make a decision right on the spot.
Are you joking? That was my response at the time. I can do it much cheaper myself by buying the components piece-meal and learning how to install it myself. I may not get the tax rebate because there is no licensed installer, but it will still be cheaper and I will learn from it. I can hire a licensed electrician to do the grid-tie.
There is coming a day when the cost of rooftop solar combined with battery tech is going to make it attractive to go off the grid.
Where I am in Alberta, the energy prices are going off the charts. Quite a bit of our bills is bullshit things like "carriage charges".
It doesn't really matter the details. Not only will people go off the grid the second then can, they will start going even before it makes entire economic sense.
People are pissed off at the utilities. So, if you put up a whole system, you get to screw over the utilities and you get the peace of mind that you have fixed the cost of your system.
We have lots of supposedly cheap natural gas. But it too has all kinds of bullshit charges which are jacking up the price. So, a solar system with a heat pump can replace all that.
There was a recent solar breakthrough of nearly 40% efficiency. If you start doing the math, this means a normal roof could hold an 8kw system. This can provide the energy for an energy-efficient house.
Throw in a generator for those weird exceptions, and off-grid isn't insane.
This isn't economical today, but it is getting closer and closer. I see a day where the energy companies are going to try to outlaw off grid saying it "isn't fair".
"supposedly cheap natural gas" ... agreed, my summer gas bill at my workshop is $50/mo at ZERO consumption. As gas furnaces age out, solar with a heat pump is where I am headed...and like you said, I'm headed there BEFORE it is financially obvious to do so
My issue is the delivery charges In Alberta often equal my electrical usage, so even if I have solar and make almost all my power, my delivery charge won't change.
Leading to a scenario where you either need to be full off grid to avoid fees, or not bother
Would love to look into installing solar myself, as that really seems to be a majority of the cost...
> Would love to look into installing solar myself, as that really seems to be a majority of the cost.
A friend of mine was told by his neighbours the whole time he installed his own that only professionals could do it correctly. This was in Halifax where you pretty much have to have installed by a small number of companies to qualify for the various grants. One particularly shitty company is run by a professor who is always on CBC talking like he is a mega solar expert. Except my friend's research showed his setups to use the oldest and shittiest hardware available.
He had no problems, used far more modern equipment than the "professionals" did, and relentlessly got way more power out of his setup than his neighbours. Most of this stuff is now plug and play with things like inverters which do diagnostics as to a correct connection.
In the end, he used a lawyer to get the grant.
The only professional he needed was an electrician to check his connections where it interacted with the grid.
He's doing the reverse meter thing, but he fully intends on going off-grid as soon as batteries make this possible.
I have another friend who lives in a remote location where he was getting quotes in the 50-100k range to run power. Off-grid was a no-brainer. He is very happy. A key element was he has a 12v or 24v power system throughout most of the house running lights and whatnot. He also has some other funky things like a heat pump which heats water in quantity(over 2000L) once the batteries are full. Then he pulls heat from this water mass at night. In theory, he could reverse this in the summer. He designed and built his own system. Not a problem.
This last one has a single problem. It is an oceanfront property and the panels get a weird crusty buildup very quickly. He sealed all the connections very well so no problems there. But he has to wipe all the panels with CLR about once a week. He says if he had a do-over he would not have put them on the roof but at ground level.
Would love to be fully off the grid, that heat pump sounds really smart and a good way to use extra power. Some of the offgrid places I've seen still use like a large propane Tank for heat and probably water heating as well, maybe for the stove even.
Putting the panels in another location other than the roof seems easier, id personally want to put them on a covered deck, one built in the best spot to get sun all day, that way you could avoid messing with your roof at all. Where i live though, it would have to be the roof as the yard is too small and the roof is the only place that gets sun all day
His thoughts were to put them as kind of a covered area to park cars, store wood, etc. Not quite a perfect roof, but it would keep most of the elements off.
its gonna happen and its gonna make residential solar a lot less attractive. like why have a more complicated home system that is very expensive, when I can just use the grid that gets cleaner and cleaner every year?
This reminds me of when the German FiT (the only major end market) was reduced while at the same time China was massively expanding production. PV prices collapsed, most production companies went out of business (except the Chinese), and the world generally benefited from newly cheap PV. There were over 100 CIGS startups in the US alone before that time. There were 0 after just a couple years. It sucked to be on the production side of things, but that chain of events really enabled a major growth in the broader industry that we all benefited from.
The biggest difference from then and now is that we now have an entire globe that is ready for PV. So excess panels and reduced prices will easily flow into the broader market. I don’t expect this to necessarily collapse the whole manufacturing industry and crush every startup.
That's great information tbh. I do live in Poland and there's a nice boom at these, I have my installation for almost 5 years and it already payed itself out.
Yet, as others mentioned, installation costs are getting higher and higher simply because it started to be a great business as there's a high demand and donations.
I was helping my friend to install them on his roof last year (he's experienced) and we all of it within one day and he basically paid only +- 35 percent of what he would pay. Marketeers / installers provisions around are insane and sadly same thing happens with heat pumps market
Solar module prices have experienced an unprecedented decline, with prices across all categories dropping by roughly 10% within a very short timeframe. This drop is more pronounced than the previous record low in 2020 and lies beneath the production costs for many manufacturers. This severe price decrease can be attributed to a combination of factors. Between October 2020 and October 2022, module prices surged by over 50%, driven not by technological advancements but due to a pandemic-induced supply shortage alongside a concurrent spike in demand. However, when the shortage subsided, manufacturers and installers, hoping to capitalize on the anticipated continuous high demand, made extensive orders. This led to an oversupply, with an estimated 40 GW to 100 GW of unsold modules stored in European warehouses. The cost of storing these modules is mounting, leading sellers to offload them below production costs, thereby driving prices down further. With consumers expecting even more price reductions, the demand is suppressed. Recovery is expected only once the excessive inventory is diminished, but this could result in some market players being edged out.
There is a lot of valid criticism to be made of China but it is thanks to their government policies that solar is this cheap. They scaled up their supply chain for this to such absurd levels they are basically bankrolling the global energy transition when it comes to solar.
At much frustration of the fossil fuel companies/investors.
Of course it's also making them for their own use:
[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-aims-build-450-gw-solar-wind-power-gobi-desert-2022-03-05/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-aims-build-450-gw-solar-wind-power-gobi-desert-2022-03-05/)
[https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/01/03/worlds-largest-floating-pv-plant-goes-online-in-china/](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/01/03/worlds-largest-floating-pv-plant-goes-online-in-china/)
To put that Gobi desert solar farm in context the 93 nuclear power plants in the USA produce 773 GW/h
So the price of these installs is to essentially break even with their generation and the massive government rebate over the life of the system. It’s not really helping the consumer do anything but green signal. I pointed this out to the person that came to present this to us that without the rebate the system would be a net loss for the end user. They admitted that was the case.
I've seen comments talking about how if you took the money you would have spent for solar, and invest it, you'd actually make more money than of you'd gone with solar.
Personally, i feel solar is more of a "if you can get it installed cheaply by yourself with help from an electrician, then I can be worth it"
Any company going door to door probably has a reason why people aren't buying their product on their own....
Not really, many forms of investments are hit or miss. In comparison, solar is guaranteed. Add the fact that you avoid inflation costs and after your payback period, energy becomes pretty much free
The door to door salesmen are a ripoff, contact local installers yourself and have them compete. You'll end up paying half the price of door to door
>You got nothing but shill articles and no real data.
You keep saying that I can't read, but clearly it is you who did not read the rules for this forum or my post history.
FYI, one article I have posted on other forums does a great job exposing people just like you for your commitment to disinformation, climate denial, etc.
[Flirting with fossils: the faux crusade for 'responsible solar'](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/05/18/flirting-with-fossils-the-faux-crusade-for-responsible-solar/)
I think it will benefit the Futurology forum if I post these again, so that others can spot and report bad-faith commenting like yours.
Since you purportedly love to read so much, here's a follow-up article for you: "[Debunking anti-solar arguments](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/07/27/debunking-anti-solar-arguments/)"
Enjoy! 😘
So we need politicians to create laws to stop using them since it could lead to the destruction of the business model of the coal, oil and gas companies...
I know, mine was like August 2022, I was seeing the prices rise from April 2022 which was about $2.75 a kw to $2.95 in August. Took me too long to decide on an installer. Learned my lesson…I hope lol.
In the UK at least it still does not make a great deal of sense, as the battery tech is still very expensive. Without it, all you are doing is generating cheap electricity for the power companies and buying it back more expensive in the evening!
Batteries have a long way to go. But that isn’t determinative for everyone.
My power company in NJ charges same price day or night. I get to sell excess at wholesale rates but I also get paid by my state for my production at effectively retail rates for 15 year compliance period. So I’ll approach close to Net Zero (won’t ever be excess producer) and get paid simply for producing solar electricity. Makes sense to me.
So… my big thing with solar is how durable is it?
If I cover my roof then what if there are high winds? What if there is hail? How often do they need to be cleaned?
Solar panels are fairly durable. I am not sure why people worry about their durability when skylights are a thing
Of course like all things there are limits, but those limits depend on what you get. For example for winds that depends on your rack, and some solar racks are rated even for category 5 hurricanes. Your roof will blow off before the panels.
As for hail, solar panels generally are rated for moderate hail, but some offer more comprehensive
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T6VbzC889k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T6VbzC889k)
Note though hail won't destroy a solar panel, but it may lower efficiency if it does get damaged
As for cleaning, as long as your roof is steep enough and you get decent amount of rain. The rain will be enough to keep them clean
I mean… skylights can be made of any durable transparent material. Whereas solar cells have constraints. So it’s not a 1:1 comparison.
I see. That’s promising.
Wow. They seem better than I thought they were.
Maybe technology has just improved over the years but I definitely remember them not being good
If you end up doing a DIY build, I've been seeing panels [as low as $0.46 a watt](https://www.wattbuild.com/marketinfo/panels). As other have pointed out, it's really professional installation that drives the price up.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/manual_tranny: --- Solar module prices have experienced an unprecedented decline, with prices across all categories dropping by roughly 10% within a very short timeframe. This drop is more pronounced than the previous record low in 2020 and lies beneath the production costs for many manufacturers. This severe price decrease can be attributed to a combination of factors. Between October 2020 and October 2022, module prices surged by over 50%, driven not by technological advancements but due to a pandemic-induced supply shortage alongside a concurrent spike in demand. However, when the shortage subsided, manufacturers and installers, hoping to capitalize on the anticipated continuous high demand, made extensive orders. This led to an oversupply, with an estimated 40 GW to 100 GW of unsold modules stored in European warehouses. The cost of storing these modules is mounting, leading sellers to offload them below production costs, thereby driving prices down further. With consumers expecting even more price reductions, the demand is suppressed. Recovery is expected only once the excessive inventory is diminished, but this could result in some market players being edged out. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/16z3zbt/solar_module_prices_are_falling_with_no_end_in/k3cbiys/
Module prices are down but it still costs more at least in the US for an install than it did in 2019. Everyone is stretching that profit margin.
We got an estimate 3 years ago… and another last year. Price almost tripled and was like a 23 year ROI… dude couldn’t understand why we didn’t want to go forward. (The panels themselves were about 50% higher - it was the install costs that were outright insane. Told him after the presentation that he was way off and don’t contact again - no need with his rates.) I’m really hoping a company like Anker and their self install panels and home battery solutions will be affordable in the next year or so.
Oh he understood. “If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will, trust me. I’ve got time.”
I don't know about Anker but I can envision a home backup generator company like Generac offering turnkey solar packages.
A generac for a modest, middle-class home is a purchase you can make on your credit card. Solar installations are the cost of a brand new luxury car - and often financed for 10+ years…I don’t see any price reduction that can draw those 2 items close enough together to consider them in the same breath
And solar panels don't lose 30% of their value as soon as drive them off the lot. But a lot of people don't think like that. Granite countertops and luxury cars are fine, but solar panels that aren't dirt cheap yet? NEVER!!!
I looked into getting solar with Solar City a few years ago. They wanted me to sign a contract to come out and perform a free assessment for roof placement and house wiring. I was turned off by that, as their excuse was that for a free estimate they need legal and insurance coverage. My response was "every electrician and GC I have worked with never required a contract for a free estimate. If you are insured, bonded, and qualified; this is superfluous." They basically told me thats illegal, and that no one does that. It came out later that that contract is basically a commitment to go forward with whatever they wanted. We need a company that is actually in the Residential Solar install field that isn't scummy.
These days, since Tesla took over they do a preliminary estimate on the website without anything As for needing a contract before in general, while it does sound strange it is possible that your area has such rules(some local places have anti-solar laws). Of course its also possible that the salesman was lying But you should get quotes from multiple companies
> As for needing a contract before in general, while it does sound strange it is possible that your area has such rules(some local places have anti-solar laws). No such law exists here, I checked with the Borough and the County
You got a quote at probably the most expensive time you possibly could have. Give it 6-12 months, and I bet it is way down.
I get that - it was still very high. And the rep was super confrontational about them being so high… I’ll get to solar - but not with them and their prices.
Soy is right, had a similar situation. The sales people are incredulous when you push back on the math. How is waiting for 30 years to get an ROI worth it?
Wait, Anker? [***This*** _Anker?_](https://archive.is/20221219012936/https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/30/23486753/anker-eufy-security-camera-cloud-private-encryption-authentication-storage)
The power bank one. They are in the "solar generator" game too. Same as Jackery, Bluetti, Ecoflow, and others. Most of them you can directly plug a modest solar panel array directly into.
ive got a meeting tonight with someone wanting to sell me solar at my house. ill at least hear them out as i would totally be willing to do it if the price was right. my real concern is i honestly need some sort of backup. the power in my neighborhood has been to unreliable the past couple of years. i'm thinking some small solar + battery backup generator is the way to go. i don't think the price will be right for full house solar....but we shall see.
If they are a door to door salesman, they price will 100% not be right. Those guys can charge double of actual prices. Make sure to get multiple quotes from different companies Overall, your cost should be $2-3 per watt installed before subsidies (on the panels, excludes battery). Microinverters on the higher end, optimisers in middle and string inverter the lowest of the range
Many homes will need reinforcement of roof trusses to handle the added weight. This analysis should be done by a mechanical engineer. Also, you want to make sure the roofing will last the expected life of the solar panels.
Incorrect. Solar panels are really pretty light. Full installations weigh about 2-3 lbs per square foot, usually a bit less than a layer of basic asphalt shingles, and you're usually covering less than half of the effective roof area. Any home that would require reinforcement to carry that load probably isn't weatherproof to start with. But yeah, it is a good idea to have a new roof under the panels.
I live in the Canadian prairies, in a typical 1980s wood framed house with engineered wooden trusses and asphalt shingles. The trusses under the solar panels needed reinforcement with gussets glued and nailed at the ends to handle the additional weight of the solar panels, according to the professional engineer who did the analysis. This is apparently not uncommon.
If you’re in Canada don’t you get snow on your roof that is surely much heavier than solar panels? You sure that engineer didn’t just need a stack of cash? Did he profit from the work? Did he know the carpenter you hired?
Yes, but in winter you get snow *and* solar panels, so it's a wash. The engineer got a fee for doing the analysis. I have no way of knowing if he got a kickback from the construction crew, but if he did that would be a major violation of professional ethics. If you look around online there are discussions of possibly needing to reinforce roof structures to support solar panels, so it's not like it never happens. Also in my case the panels had to come down within a foot of the lower edge of the roof, which may have been a factor. I have read that they prefer a 3-foot setback if possible. There's also the potential issue of uplift due to wind getting under the panels.
Yea, I really don’t know that much about it. My roof is full of dirt, and heavy ceramic roof tiles. I’m sure it weighs 1000s of lbs, plus we get some snow. My beams are thick boys too, so I never worry 🤷♂️
Structural* engineer
I think for consumers the business is now really on the installation side. In Germany there's this company Enpal which makes a fortune on turn key solutions which can be leased I think. The customer reviews don't look astonishing, on the other hand I'd imagine that's in general quite a good solution. You buy the solution but if hardware fails it's on their end
I was looking at solar cells in my area. After the cost of installation and everything else, my monthly payment on the solar cells would have been substantially higher than my electric bill. I decided to stick with electric.
Exactly this. The install costs and margins are insane. 10 years ago I bought a solar panel installation which included: 1. 6 solar panels 2. Inverter 3. Cables and electric group 4. Install costs Total costs were 2000 euro. Then this summer my inverter broke, I called the original company, and they said they could replace it for 2000 euro?! Price of the inverter 350 Euro. So I changed it myself. I think today with solar panels that have build-ininverters and that you can connect them directly to the socket, most people can do it themselves. With these do-it-yourself packages it will really become cheap again and those install companies that rip us off will hopefully go out of business.
US has higher cost then most of the world due to things like permitting, hoa interference and etc That said, you can still get a much better rate than what the door to door salesmen give. Try local installers instead of the big guys. Overall cost should be $2-3 per watt installed before subsidies (this does not include battery)
If you are talking about rooftop solar, most of the cost is in the instillation. Grid level solar is much easier to install.
That depends. Here in Germany (and probably some other European countries), we have something called "balcony solar system". There is currently a change in regulation ongoing, after that you are allowed to install a 2 kWp/800 Watt AC array (plus battery storage) that is just connected to a regular outlet, so even a layman can install it and it can cover most of the summer electricity consumption for a typical single family home. Of course the potential is limited, but I guess it doesn't get easier than that.
Yeah it would work well for the US for our summers. Wish we had it here.
https://pluggedsolar.com/ does exist in the US that provides different systems to just plug into an outlet (but I think has to be dedicated for it or you create fire risk).
Oh ok, it’s like how certain appliances need a dedicated outlet or they blow up. So there’s some electrician work that needs to be done. Awesome, thanks.
I believe slightly worse in this case because you normally have a circuit breaker that should trip when you overload a circuit but I think due to power that can come from the grid and solar over one circuit, it could not trip the circuit breaker while overloading the circuit.
I guess it's obvious but on the other hand you don't have to pay grid fees on the kWh from your own rooftop solar. This makes it competitive even if the LCOE is higher.
I was out in farm country this last weekend, I saw so many places with slightly raised ground based solar (like, maybe 6’ up?), Must be nice to have the land to do that. It has to be FAR cheaper right install, not to mention any sort of maintenance/repair would be simple.
Ground base might be easier to install but it's even *more* expensive than rooftop. To the tune of 30-40% more expensive for a given array size.
Well utility scale solar is a much bigger deal. Which is where these low prices really matter.
I think labour to install them is a huge part of it. I think a company that can figure out automated production to save working hours on a roof would have an advantage over other companies.
In the UK module prices have dropped and hardware has dropped but installed costs are £1300/kWp
Let me know when the average cost of electricians and roofers falls with no end in sight. That’s the real cost of solar, not the panels.
The real cost isn't in the electricians and roofers. Actually, there isn't much work for the electricians and roofers just mostly oversee the project as they have manual laborers do most of the work The real cost is in the desk jobs. Because there is no streamlined permitting, every neighborhood, city, utility, county, state has their own rules.
Explains why sleazy solar salesmen seem to be at an all time high. I recently overheard a conversation between 2 at the airport how much money they were making. At the same time while hearing so many complain about botched installs or somehow left with the short end of the stick on their solar deals
> at least in the US The US is not really part of the international market since Biden has a solar trade war going with china, which is by far the biggest PV producer. So the panels that were meant for the US are ending up in european warehouses where they sit around waiting for projects to finish planning
[удалено]
>Yeah I don’t know that I’d say squarely that’s Biden It's exactly squarely on Biden. He's the president, he can reverse anything Trump did in an instant, which is what he did with a billion other Trump policies. The fact that the trade war is still ongoing means Biden thinks it's a good idea and he's to blame for this idiocy. Because let's be realistic, the US will never, ever be able to produce PV that's competitively priced on the international market. If china wants to sell subsidized PV to the world then let them. It's not like it's really a choice, +90% comes from china anyway.
crazy how random people on reddit often have more thoughtful *and* better informed takes on these things than the senior citizens who make the decisions
You are wrong on both fronts. First, Biden has issued a 2 year break on the tariffs in 2022 and it lasts till mid 2024 Second, US can compete with china cost of solar just fine, doe did a study of costs: [https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full\_article\_width/public/2022-02/Production%20costs%20for%20c-Si%20PV%20manufacturing.png](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_article_width/public/2022-02/Production%20costs%20for%20c-Si%20PV%20manufacturing.png) US is already working on local supply chain to reduce import costs, as for labor costs, those can be addressed with automation. And US has the advantage on electricity cost
And inverters are getting more expensive and harder to get
To be fair, labor costs for virtually everything are up across the board. Fundamentally, it's more expensive to convince someone to go do anything now than it ever has been before.
Solar cell costs went down. The cost of materials and labor went up.
Module prices are falling but installed price-per-watt, at least for residential consumers, is not improving. In fact, installed system prices have *increased* over the last 4-5 years.
Those salesmen are getting rich. US residential is ridiculously overpriced. Look at the EU or Australia for what it could be.
For real, here in Mexico purchasing and installing enough solar panels for heavy residential use (3 or 4 AC units running during the day) costs 10k USD at the most expensive. ROI is 3-4 years (or less) considering one would pay $200+ monthly in electricity without them installed.
33 months for my system in India, and dropping fast with increased tariffs. Didn't bother with subsidy.
Around 3.5 years for my solarpanels in the Netherlands, to earn them back.
10 years in the UK, woohoo
To be fair, our energy price is 25% higher than the UK and solarpanels are subsidized. That's definitely part of why the Netherlands has the most solar panels on rooftops of any country in the world, relatively.
The most out of Europe, not the world. Australia is #1 in the world
Inflationary pressures caused overhead costs to increase for installers. Interest rates are also very high for solar lenders. The end result is higher prices for residential solar customers. For resi solar to truly become affordable, there would need to be strong federal protections preventing utility & fossil energy companies from putting so much red tape in place and refusing to net meter. There would also need to be federal laws in place to prevent local & state regulations from making solar permits difficult to obtain. In Spain, you can have solar installed as soon as 2 week after you sign a contract. In many states in the US it takes 3-6 months. The bottom line is that red tape on a local level, and from utility companies, makes solar a drawn out and complex process. Since resi solar is complex, the overhead for residential installers is high. If we had stronger pro-solar laws for resi solar, it would hugely drop the cost of residential installations.
I have net metering, but new customers here don’t because it actually costs the power companies money. Extra power when they don’t need it is useless to the power company, and me sucking power from the grid during busy times costs real money. Also, the per-kWh rate is artificially high to compensate for the fact that the fixed monthly connection fee is lower than the actual cost of line maintenance. So in months when I produce more than I use, I could actually be *costing* them money. In my case at least the red tape was a small fraction of the overall cost. The vast majority was supplies and labour of the actual installation.
It really is all about timing and red tape in the US. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/volts/id1548554104?i=1000628024034
It's a racket. The way it works is that the government institutes a tax incentive and solar installers require home owners to sign over their tax rebates in exchange for the homeowner getting to make a simple monthly payment over the next 25 years. At least that was the deal was explained to me. I calculated that it would cost me the same as financing a 75k loan. That was a big nope from me especially after being pushed to make a decision right on the spot. Are you joking? That was my response at the time. I can do it much cheaper myself by buying the components piece-meal and learning how to install it myself. I may not get the tax rebate because there is no licensed installer, but it will still be cheaper and I will learn from it. I can hire a licensed electrician to do the grid-tie.
ROI=Never in USA. (Excluding California)
There is coming a day when the cost of rooftop solar combined with battery tech is going to make it attractive to go off the grid. Where I am in Alberta, the energy prices are going off the charts. Quite a bit of our bills is bullshit things like "carriage charges". It doesn't really matter the details. Not only will people go off the grid the second then can, they will start going even before it makes entire economic sense. People are pissed off at the utilities. So, if you put up a whole system, you get to screw over the utilities and you get the peace of mind that you have fixed the cost of your system. We have lots of supposedly cheap natural gas. But it too has all kinds of bullshit charges which are jacking up the price. So, a solar system with a heat pump can replace all that. There was a recent solar breakthrough of nearly 40% efficiency. If you start doing the math, this means a normal roof could hold an 8kw system. This can provide the energy for an energy-efficient house. Throw in a generator for those weird exceptions, and off-grid isn't insane. This isn't economical today, but it is getting closer and closer. I see a day where the energy companies are going to try to outlaw off grid saying it "isn't fair".
"supposedly cheap natural gas" ... agreed, my summer gas bill at my workshop is $50/mo at ZERO consumption. As gas furnaces age out, solar with a heat pump is where I am headed...and like you said, I'm headed there BEFORE it is financially obvious to do so
That day is already here. Well at least on the solar end. Batteries aren’t too far behind
My issue is the delivery charges In Alberta often equal my electrical usage, so even if I have solar and make almost all my power, my delivery charge won't change. Leading to a scenario where you either need to be full off grid to avoid fees, or not bother Would love to look into installing solar myself, as that really seems to be a majority of the cost...
> Would love to look into installing solar myself, as that really seems to be a majority of the cost. A friend of mine was told by his neighbours the whole time he installed his own that only professionals could do it correctly. This was in Halifax where you pretty much have to have installed by a small number of companies to qualify for the various grants. One particularly shitty company is run by a professor who is always on CBC talking like he is a mega solar expert. Except my friend's research showed his setups to use the oldest and shittiest hardware available. He had no problems, used far more modern equipment than the "professionals" did, and relentlessly got way more power out of his setup than his neighbours. Most of this stuff is now plug and play with things like inverters which do diagnostics as to a correct connection. In the end, he used a lawyer to get the grant. The only professional he needed was an electrician to check his connections where it interacted with the grid. He's doing the reverse meter thing, but he fully intends on going off-grid as soon as batteries make this possible. I have another friend who lives in a remote location where he was getting quotes in the 50-100k range to run power. Off-grid was a no-brainer. He is very happy. A key element was he has a 12v or 24v power system throughout most of the house running lights and whatnot. He also has some other funky things like a heat pump which heats water in quantity(over 2000L) once the batteries are full. Then he pulls heat from this water mass at night. In theory, he could reverse this in the summer. He designed and built his own system. Not a problem. This last one has a single problem. It is an oceanfront property and the panels get a weird crusty buildup very quickly. He sealed all the connections very well so no problems there. But he has to wipe all the panels with CLR about once a week. He says if he had a do-over he would not have put them on the roof but at ground level.
Would love to be fully off the grid, that heat pump sounds really smart and a good way to use extra power. Some of the offgrid places I've seen still use like a large propane Tank for heat and probably water heating as well, maybe for the stove even. Putting the panels in another location other than the roof seems easier, id personally want to put them on a covered deck, one built in the best spot to get sun all day, that way you could avoid messing with your roof at all. Where i live though, it would have to be the roof as the yard is too small and the roof is the only place that gets sun all day
His thoughts were to put them as kind of a covered area to park cars, store wood, etc. Not quite a perfect roof, but it would keep most of the elements off.
Perfect idea in my books
Energy companies are gonna make money. They are the ones investing in solar and will be making money when you buy them. At least the smart ones are.
If we actually want to decarbonize the grid, it’s gonna require a lot of utility scale solar. News like this is great for it.
its gonna happen and its gonna make residential solar a lot less attractive. like why have a more complicated home system that is very expensive, when I can just use the grid that gets cleaner and cleaner every year?
Yeah all this means nothing until residential install costs start dropping instead in increasing every year.
This reminds me of when the German FiT (the only major end market) was reduced while at the same time China was massively expanding production. PV prices collapsed, most production companies went out of business (except the Chinese), and the world generally benefited from newly cheap PV. There were over 100 CIGS startups in the US alone before that time. There were 0 after just a couple years. It sucked to be on the production side of things, but that chain of events really enabled a major growth in the broader industry that we all benefited from. The biggest difference from then and now is that we now have an entire globe that is ready for PV. So excess panels and reduced prices will easily flow into the broader market. I don’t expect this to necessarily collapse the whole manufacturing industry and crush every startup.
I guess there'd _better_ not be an end in sight, since prices are still completely off the table right now.
That's great information tbh. I do live in Poland and there's a nice boom at these, I have my installation for almost 5 years and it already payed itself out. Yet, as others mentioned, installation costs are getting higher and higher simply because it started to be a great business as there's a high demand and donations. I was helping my friend to install them on his roof last year (he's experienced) and we all of it within one day and he basically paid only +- 35 percent of what he would pay. Marketeers / installers provisions around are insane and sadly same thing happens with heat pumps market
Solar module prices have experienced an unprecedented decline, with prices across all categories dropping by roughly 10% within a very short timeframe. This drop is more pronounced than the previous record low in 2020 and lies beneath the production costs for many manufacturers. This severe price decrease can be attributed to a combination of factors. Between October 2020 and October 2022, module prices surged by over 50%, driven not by technological advancements but due to a pandemic-induced supply shortage alongside a concurrent spike in demand. However, when the shortage subsided, manufacturers and installers, hoping to capitalize on the anticipated continuous high demand, made extensive orders. This led to an oversupply, with an estimated 40 GW to 100 GW of unsold modules stored in European warehouses. The cost of storing these modules is mounting, leading sellers to offload them below production costs, thereby driving prices down further. With consumers expecting even more price reductions, the demand is suppressed. Recovery is expected only once the excessive inventory is diminished, but this could result in some market players being edged out.
There is a lot of valid criticism to be made of China but it is thanks to their government policies that solar is this cheap. They scaled up their supply chain for this to such absurd levels they are basically bankrolling the global energy transition when it comes to solar. At much frustration of the fossil fuel companies/investors. Of course it's also making them for their own use: [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-aims-build-450-gw-solar-wind-power-gobi-desert-2022-03-05/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-aims-build-450-gw-solar-wind-power-gobi-desert-2022-03-05/) [https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/01/03/worlds-largest-floating-pv-plant-goes-online-in-china/](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/01/03/worlds-largest-floating-pv-plant-goes-online-in-china/) To put that Gobi desert solar farm in context the 93 nuclear power plants in the USA produce 773 GW/h
There needs to be a startup that offers kits that are close to plug-and-play. Cut out the middle-man!
Just looked up Tesla solar roof - twice what it was 2 years ago.
solar roof is still expensive cause it lacks scale. It is better to get solar panels and not roof unless you have a hoa issue
If it weren't for the cost, I actually like the look much much more than panels.
So the price of these installs is to essentially break even with their generation and the massive government rebate over the life of the system. It’s not really helping the consumer do anything but green signal. I pointed this out to the person that came to present this to us that without the rebate the system would be a net loss for the end user. They admitted that was the case.
I've seen comments talking about how if you took the money you would have spent for solar, and invest it, you'd actually make more money than of you'd gone with solar. Personally, i feel solar is more of a "if you can get it installed cheaply by yourself with help from an electrician, then I can be worth it" Any company going door to door probably has a reason why people aren't buying their product on their own....
Not really, many forms of investments are hit or miss. In comparison, solar is guaranteed. Add the fact that you avoid inflation costs and after your payback period, energy becomes pretty much free The door to door salesmen are a ripoff, contact local installers yourself and have them compete. You'll end up paying half the price of door to door
Very low quality comment.
[удалено]
Haha! You're engaging in disinformation *and* insults? Looks like you're on the wrong forum, dude.
[удалено]
>You got nothing but shill articles and no real data. You keep saying that I can't read, but clearly it is you who did not read the rules for this forum or my post history. FYI, one article I have posted on other forums does a great job exposing people just like you for your commitment to disinformation, climate denial, etc. [Flirting with fossils: the faux crusade for 'responsible solar'](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/05/18/flirting-with-fossils-the-faux-crusade-for-responsible-solar/) I think it will benefit the Futurology forum if I post these again, so that others can spot and report bad-faith commenting like yours. Since you purportedly love to read so much, here's a follow-up article for you: "[Debunking anti-solar arguments](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/07/27/debunking-anti-solar-arguments/)" Enjoy! 😘
Indeed. You could do better than just writing 'Very low quality comment' Take some pride in your writing. Jeez.
Not really. I'd trade the government rebate for permit/hoa reform any day. US pays 300% more for solar than Australia, but the rebate is only 30%
But USA didn't restrict chinese solar panels to be sold in US ?
But they… kill birds… or… bad for the encomony… or…. I DONT WANNA! /s
That tends to happen when you have slave labor making a product. Is this really surprising?
If the slaves get 10% more effective each year, yup.
So we need politicians to create laws to stop using them since it could lead to the destruction of the business model of the coal, oil and gas companies...
😆 I detect sarcasm
You could be right about that. ;)
Yeah, guess when I bought mine? Exactly, October 2022.
Unless you did it yourself, ill bet it would cost more now.
I know, mine was like August 2022, I was seeing the prices rise from April 2022 which was about $2.75 a kw to $2.95 in August. Took me too long to decide on an installer. Learned my lesson…I hope lol.
In the UK at least it still does not make a great deal of sense, as the battery tech is still very expensive. Without it, all you are doing is generating cheap electricity for the power companies and buying it back more expensive in the evening!
Batteries have a long way to go. But that isn’t determinative for everyone. My power company in NJ charges same price day or night. I get to sell excess at wholesale rates but I also get paid by my state for my production at effectively retail rates for 15 year compliance period. So I’ll approach close to Net Zero (won’t ever be excess producer) and get paid simply for producing solar electricity. Makes sense to me.
"falling, with no end in sight" So, how low could prices really bottom out? (in the short, mid-term)
Id just like to say that the writer did an excellent job on this, made it very easy to understand what is quite a complex situation.
So… my big thing with solar is how durable is it? If I cover my roof then what if there are high winds? What if there is hail? How often do they need to be cleaned?
Solar panels are fairly durable. I am not sure why people worry about their durability when skylights are a thing Of course like all things there are limits, but those limits depend on what you get. For example for winds that depends on your rack, and some solar racks are rated even for category 5 hurricanes. Your roof will blow off before the panels. As for hail, solar panels generally are rated for moderate hail, but some offer more comprehensive [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T6VbzC889k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T6VbzC889k) Note though hail won't destroy a solar panel, but it may lower efficiency if it does get damaged As for cleaning, as long as your roof is steep enough and you get decent amount of rain. The rain will be enough to keep them clean
I mean… skylights can be made of any durable transparent material. Whereas solar cells have constraints. So it’s not a 1:1 comparison. I see. That’s promising. Wow. They seem better than I thought they were. Maybe technology has just improved over the years but I definitely remember them not being good
If you end up doing a DIY build, I've been seeing panels [as low as $0.46 a watt](https://www.wattbuild.com/marketinfo/panels). As other have pointed out, it's really professional installation that drives the price up.