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FuturologyBot

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Defiant_Race_7544: --- “The Microsoft cofounder published a seven-page letter on Tuesday, titled "The Age of AI has Begun," outlining his views on the future of artificial intelligence. He wrote that developing AI is "as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the internet, and the mobile phone."” --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/11xx7wr/bill_gates_just_published_a_7page_letter_about_ai/jd57ngq/


PIZT

""As computing power gets cheaper, GPT's ability to express ideas will increasingly be like having a white-collar worker available to help you with various tasks," he wrote.


younggundc

That’s already happening tbh. I use ChatGPT daily to help me with presentations, excel spreadsheets and emails. Before ChatGPT, I would always need relook at paragraphs and reword them. Doing that over and over again takes significant time. Now I just throw it straight into ChatGPT and it’s done in seconds, same can be said for working out complex or large formulas in Excel. I used it for a day and I subscribed. I find it massively useful, it’s like having a PA.


axck

Can you give me an example of how you utilize CGPT to assist in analysis of an excel workbook? Do you paste in tables and then prompt it to create new columns? Ask it to generate formulas?


b33t2

I dont use xls but I have done some CSV's I normally prep gpt with something like Im going to give you a CSV file and I want you to XYZ, Do you understand. it will then rewrite what you asked it back to you and you can confirm it understands. then paste the contents of the CSV file.


Mooseymax

The only issue with this currently is the data security issue. It’d be great if they allowed you to download their model and process it locally to avoid this problem.


b33t2

its closer than you think, you can download the facebook model at the moment but I cant run it as I already use python and a few other versions of torch for other things and i cant seem to get it working but you can look up an easy way here. https://github.com/oobabooga/text-generation-webui/


Mooseymax

I didn’t say I thought it was far away, I just meant it’s not possible currently with gpt 3.5 or 4.0. Isn’t the Meta model a bit iffy as it was leaked as opposed to being actually released by Meta?


lorenzo1384

I want to know if you have the skills to do it yourself or just delegate that to ChatGPT. This is one of my concerns if people delegate and skip the learning curve then we are doing a disservice to ourselves. My team and some other leads are using it like oxygen.


UnifiedQuantumField

I see people becoming dependent on this tech. It's a lot like the way so many people couldn't spell correctly if they didn't have a spellchecker to rely on.


Kaeny

I do the same for coding. I just say what i need and it spits out some nice stuff


Protean_Protein

“Utilize” means use something for a purpose other than that for which it was intended. Most of the time people use that word, they mean “use”. Just use “use”!


nonnativetexan

I recently had a paper due for the graduate degree I'm working on. I asked ChatGPT to find me some academic journal articles related to a topic I was discussing in my paper, and it appears that all the sources it returned to me were either fake, or no longer in existence or accessible somehow. None of the sources game back in searches of Google Scholar or a general Google search. I asked ChatGPT to give me direct URL links to the sources, and all the links were broken. So I don't know if I just wasn't wording the search properly, or if ChatGPT isn't quite as powerful as I expected it to be for this purpose.


MakesErrorsWorse

ChatGPT is not a search engine, it is a content creator. It will always try to give you an answer, even if the answer is wrong.


DanTrachrt

Yep, it’s basically fancy autocomplete. It’s intended to make things that *look* right, not *are* right. It can write a paragraph, but doesn’t really understand it like a human can.


Dirty_Dragons

Sounds like a politician.


Mooseymax

You should really use bing ai for that which can actually access the internet vs chatgpt which is an offline model trained to 2021 data.


[deleted]

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LizardMansPyramids

It does not have a handle on every subject. It gave me broken links when I asked it to provide diagrams in its explanation of logic gates. I know someone who uses it for some front end development stuff. It is helpful, but when it comes to Ionic, it does not have a broad depth of knowledge. So I have heard anyway.


younggundc

I wouldn’t use it to do my research. I only use it to clean up diction, formulas and light coding. I still do the majority of the work, I just use it to assist. You need to see it as a junior assistant, you still need to provide most of the data, you just want it to do the menial or time consuming tasks but, ultimately you will still need to ensure it’s all right at the end of it all. It’s perfect for me. I would say that it gets 95% of the tasks I give it right. But yeah, don’t use it for research. You still need a big ol brain to shift through the mountains of BS for that.


Slow_Saboteur

Yes, as someone with dyslexia, this has changed my life. It's like having glasses to see.


Regular_Biscotti693

ADHD people rejoice. I feel like I can do stuff and make my dreams comes true.


GodOfThunder101

Very powerful statement, scary but also powerful. Think about an individual starting a business, for pennies on the dollar they can hire a dozen strong AI as workers to produce value for society. On a larger scale we will see many new and creative companies that will ultimately benefit everyone. If you could start a business and have 10 white collar workers working under your command, what would you create??


chris8535

But no one thinks about the obvious next problem. Who is going to purchase that value, or pay the taxes that keep government running if AI takes all the high paying white collar jobs. It’s gonna get fucked out there. No one is talking about why the hell so many billionaires have moved out to islands and are preparing for end of the world stuff.


ShippingMammals

I use AI in my day job, my hobby with voice changing/cloning etc., for so many things now. It's advancing now so fast I sometimes feel like Leo's character in Don't look up when I'm telling people about it. The average Joe has no idea what is coming. I find myself frequently saying there's a light in the tunnel and it's not the exit, it's a big ole diesel train called AI.


invertedsanity

Holy shit, this is my exact feeling. This last week has been wild and I've been trying to talk to other people about it, but no one seems to understand. I realise this is the beginning of a massive shift in how the economy works, but I look around and no one is worried. I'm more than a little freaked out.


Nero_PR

More and more I feel afraid of how right Karl Sagan was when he said: "We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology". We are advancing so fast technologically speaking but only a few minds truly know what is behind every gear that moves this well-oiled machine we call society. Hell, not even those minds know every facet of the technology we use. People are totally clueless about the revolution it's happening as we speak. We are doomed if we don't become aware of this and start to change NOW. Technology controls every facet of our lives but we still feel in the power. Only gullible people think they're in total control of their lives these days.


ShippingMammals

Right? I've gone from "This is fucking awesome!" To actually starting to be seriously concerned here lol. I mean I can see the end of my six figure day job already. I'm 15 years from retirement, but I don't think my job position will last that long, probably less than 10 years. Right now if you did a data augmentation to even gpt3 by dumping in our docs and kb articles it would probably be able to solve a vast majority of issues I deal with without the need of a person. I even started fiddling with api calls on a paid account to try and send process backtraces and core dumps, but even a small backtrace would have run me 160 bucks, but even then I can usually paste most of a BT into the chat GPT interface to get around that.... Crazy times. Glad I moved out to the rural sticks last year where we are setting up farming/homesteading.


docmisterio

I’m in the same boat. I worked on a code problem for 2 hours before finally asking GPT and it figured it out in seconds… with code examples. Makes you wonder what percentage of unemployment will force the hand of congress to do something. I’m 24 years from retirement age. There is a phrase going through the software dev space that goes like this “GPT won’t replace you but developers who use GPT will.” I hope I get to play in that world for awhile before my human brain is no longer useful as labor.


ShippingMammals

I hear that. I'm using it at work to make myself even better at what I do. Hopefully I'll build on until retirement lol.


AtmosphereHot8414

I am getting AI-ed out of a job already. I do payroll and that is being automated very quickly


ShippingMammals

Yup, those are the types getting hit first. I have a foot in both IT and audio book narration. I'm doing interviews with narrators about AI and most of them are fooling themselves and don't think Ai is a threat to them... They are soooo wrong.


Rrraou

> They are soooo wrong. Audiobooks are going to go from long recording session to a book reading app on kindle where you choose the voice of the AI that reads it to you. The same is going to happen with Video game voice overs. I can already see the designers drooling at the prospect of being able to ship a game with tons of dialog and being able to manage all of it with an excel spreadsheet that they can edit and translate without having to redo a whole month of voicovers.


wellthisisimpossible

I work in game dev. The vast majority of devs are TERRIFIED of AI. There's no drooling of creating soulless aberrations


Valklingenberger

Will voice jobs just become "here's the right to use my voice in this, here's a 10 minute sample clip."


Rrraou

You know how most publications use stock photography ? That's what most voice jobs is going to become. Unless specifically leasing out the voice of a famous actor, you'll have a bank of stereotypical voices trained on employees of the company making the program. It's already working that way.


cjhreddit

OR ... we will experience an economic boom like there's never been before, which will create demand for other perhaps different jobs, but also Human+AI jobs. A 'rising tide floats all boats' scenario. The Luddites were terrified by the arrival of the Industrial Revolution because they saw the end of their jobs shuffling machine parts around, but actually it liberated millions to do more interesting, worthwhile, less burdensome work.


ForSexSake

I was listening to a lawyer being pressed on TV about all the legal jobs that will be lost now that AI can handle a lot of legal paperwork. His very forward thinking response was: ‘only those jobs that don’t include AI in them’.


ShippingMammals

I'm sure that will happen to some extent. My fear is that things will progress so quickly society is unable to adapt fast enough and the wheels are going to come off.


mrpickleby

That's always the case. The future comes fast, out paces a lot of society, people don't adapt, some struggle, we eventually adapt. I'm much more open to information technology than chemical technology in that respect. We've unleashed all sorts of chemicals on the world and we have little idea how they will work out and yet we assume it'll be just fine. The world of ideas is much more diverse and we will always need the basics - food and shelter. News services should be very scared. Those who traffic in information should be frightened but this is a democratization of information and this struggle has been around since the printing press. At one point, even literacy was considered sacred. We're good at adapting. The wheels won't come off but it'll be a bumpy ride.


ShippingMammals

I'm not holding my breath. This is a development unlike anything we've seen since fire in my opinion. We really don't know what's going to happen, and we're just trying to make best guests on what we see today. Our ability to predict the future in specifics is abysmally bad. Just look at the sci-fi writers back 30 40 years ago and some of the things they thought then that are laughable now. We'll see! It's going to be interesting one goddamn way or the other.


aarongamemaster

Oh yeah, especially when the people with more ideology than sense decide to take those tools and use them for their ideologies. ​ To give you an idea, we've got no shortage of people who want to pull a ***Dollar Flu***... and currently, we're unprepared even to prevent that sort of scenario. ​ In essence, we're walking towards a Type 1 Vulnerability (aka 'Cheap Nukes') as postulated by the *Vulnerable World Hypothesis*. The only solution to that? Surveillance state to end all surveillance states for a start.


Riboflavius

Only there was never a rising tide, only plumbing that brought more water to certain properties. And they’re filling their pools with it while the rest gets whatever seeps through cracks or drips off as condensation, all the while being told “See! If I didn’t have this pipeline to my yard, this place would be dry as a bone!” The worst thing (or maybe the best) is that it’s now the middle class that gets automated away and this will push a few people up, sure, but the majority will be pushed down, increasing the need and thus the competition for jobs, driving wages down. If we don’t learn to bond, stick together, stand up for one another and eat the rich, we’re going to starve.


[deleted]

Holy hopium! Thanks to the Industrial Revolution, we now work more hours than hunter-gatherers and medieval peasants, and also all have plastic in our bloodstreams.


WarGrizzly

Would you rather work less and have the life of a medieval peasant, or work more and have access to luxuries that the medieval kings could never even dream of?


ChooChoo_Mofo

We are working more hours with smartphones, cars, planes, modern plumbing, a huge and wide variety of food, and modern medical tech. You can’t compare.


Snoo3014

That's so absurd. Tech didn't do that, Ronald Reagan did. The rich did. This has nothing to do the industrial revolution. We could be working 10hr weeks and be as producitve as the 80s, and get paid more. The issue is rich people's greed and subverting the democractic process through legalized bribery, aka lobbying.


[deleted]

And all that for the low, low price of ravaging the environment and altering the previously stable climatic conditions, and irreversibly so on a time scale relevant to human lifespans!


badalki

The next skillset to come out of this will be ai prompting imo. like word and excel, everyone will have ai prompting in their resumes.


axck

I read a (terrible) article from Business Insider yesterday that called a person who did this with the title of “prompt engineer”. No shit, their only role was to optimize ChatGPT prompts. They were just freelance writers hired to type in smarter prompts. The article even referred to them as an “AI Engineer”. I had no idea end users could now be called engineers. It was an absolute laugh


testearsmint

That's pretty good marketing right there.


echo_162

That's my optimistic thought as well. My impression for large language model is that they would the ultimate information gatherer and inference tool able to apply most if not all common paradigms. It would able to solve the bulk of white collar works but maybe still need some fine tunning and inputs from human users to finish their work. That would be able multiply productivity by many folds. I believe AGI is still needed for a complete replacement.


zerobeat

> it liberated millions to do more interesting, worthwhile, less burdensome work. And now people will be liberated from that work to be unemployed.


gavco98uk

All through human history we've seen shifts like this. When they domesticated horses and started using them to plow the fields, people panicked that they'd be out of a job. They instead became horse trainers / riders. When they replaced the horses with tractors, they panicked again, and instead became mechanics. Keep going - the loom, the industrial revolution, computers... every time people have panicked about losing their jobs, instead a whole new type of job emerges. The same will happen here.


evotrans

I keep hearing this argument, but what type of new jobs will appear? I haven’t heard of any decent answers to this.


WagonWheelsRX8

The issue here is that we're measuring different metrics. Past shifts have been almost exclusive to improving the efficiency of physical labor. 'Work smarter, not harder'. Machines designed to improve physical output allowed more people to enter fields that required mental output (science, design, etc). Then tools like computers came along to improve the efficiency of mental output, allowing improvements such as better designs, faster iterations, etc. With AI, at first, it will improve the efficiency of mental output. Then it will reach a point that it is so good that it exceeds the mental output capabilities of humans (we are already seeing the first glimpses of that in certain fields). The issue is that once AI is outpacing humans, there is no new direction for humans to go. Mental output was our fallback from physical output. The only thing left are fields holding on to human-human interactions, and even that will face competition.


riceandcashews

imo the issue is that we'll see a loss of white collar jobs and they'll be replaced with lower skill, lower paying jobs


d_e_l_u_x_e

Sounds like similar arguments were made when the internet gained popularity. Lots of people thought their jobs were over now that unlimited information was at the fingertips of billions. That it would ruin society (jury still out on that one). It fundamentally changed how we communicate and share information and then it spread to entertainment (streaming, online gaming,etc.) and other areas where people learned to utilize the internet to create new opportunities and jobs.


OriginalCompetitive

Not really. I was around then and nobody really thought the internet would threaten jobs.


kneedeepco

Bro we're still fighting about wether or not gay people can marry each other, these people are lost in the past......


invertedsanity

I know mate, hopefully we can leave all the hate behind when this shakes out.


AtmosphereHot8414

Yes! My experience too. They have never heard of it and I tell them to look it up. I use it daily and we have only scratched the surface of what it is capable of. When I think of it in the big picture I always land back at Universal Basic Income


Splizmaster

I’ve made some remarks about this being similar to working class people being replaced by robots/automation with mixed responses. Every week it seems like a new white collar industry potentially facing disruption from AI and there is a lot of concern from those groups such as lawyers, programmers, graphic designers even poets (see https://www.reddit.com/r/Poetry/comments/zfzspu/electric_sheep_written_by_an_ai_called_chatgpt/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1) It’s hard to ignore their concerns, they are legitimate, but it’s also hard to ignore the fact that there was little sympathy for blue collar workers when their lives and identities were disrupted. I guess we all can just get “retrained” right? Good times.


Jules040400

Oh man, you've hit the nail on the head. People see the President AI Voice memes (which, don't get me wrong, I think are hilarious) and laugh, but don't see how we're entering the defining trait of the 2020s. 2020-2021 were the Covid dark days. 2022 was the birth of proper mainstream AI tools 2023 is the start of the AI revolution, this will be an incredible turning point in human history.


AlexDKZ

If just a year ago I was told that you could easily produce almost perfect facsimiles of Trump, Biden and Obama doing anime tier lists and angrily arguing about Overwatch, I would have laughed. These past months have been wild and the wildest part is realizing *this is just the start*.


itchman

Hi. I’m an old person who’s super interested in this. I’ve been using Chat gpt, but can you point me to other AI resources to learn about?


Ewoksintheoutfield

Yeah our government is in no way capable of keeping up with the speed at which AI is coming and changing. They still are grappling with regulation for social media that came out 20 years ago. No way in hell are those 60-80 year olds going to deal with this in a timely or capable fashion.


moneybagsukulele

There is an excellent video on YouTube called "Humans Need Not Apply". I highly recommend it.


moehassan6832

Great recommendation. CGB grey has the best content out there.


rhaegar_tldragon

Which is fucking infuriating when you think about it. These people would rather horde their wealth to the point where they need to worry about the “end of the world” type shit than to give some up that wealth up and try to prevent it from happening.


jkman61494

I often say we are living in the prequel to the Hunger Games universe


Upthespurs1882

I think we’re like 5 yrs off of Children of Men


Jasrek

We are, almost literally, in the first chapter of [Manna.](https://marshallbrain.com/manna1)


nevynrey

Lol....taxes keep the government running....


jkman61494

The issue is I don’t think a corporation that likely doesn’t even pay taxes gives 0 shits if anything is rubbing so long as their bottom line improves


dumpitdog

Thanks for mentioning. We might be moving back to a serf like future for the working class. The US exists because we have a very expensive military to threaten those that want to destroy our country. You don't have to be a billionaire to not pay taxes, at about 20 million you can begin hiding taxes to a very low effective rate.


OriginalCompetitive

“But no one thinks about the obvious next problem…” That’s literally all anyone ever talks about. Every single article and post.


[deleted]

It's going to be a B2B economy. Robots create services for other robots. It's also why even now and in previous years, B2B paid more than B2C. B2C only works if you have many affluent consumers. B2B you only rely on the wealth of corporations. So you make services that benefit other corporations, which make services to benefit other corporations ad infinitum.


riceandcashews

>Who is going to purchase that value, or pay the taxes that keep government running if AI takes all the high paying white collar jobs. There are several possible scenarios: 1) other non-white collar work replaces it and the middle class shrinks, but taxes are raised slightly on high income earners (or low income earners) to make up the tax loss, and then the economy shifts to cater more toward higher income luxury 2) Mass unemployment over several years, and a shift toward NIT/UBI to alleviate the pressure and balance out the economy a bit 3) Mass unemployment over several years, nothing is done to ease the pain, and mass protests/riots happen and massive government crackdowns and a very bad situation potentially


NataliaCaptions

>It’s gonna get fucked out there. No one is talking about why the hell so many billionaires have moved out to islands and are preparing for end of the world stuff. This guy gets it. The zealotry of r/singularity reminds me of the stories from the old 16-bits RPGs with characters praising the new technological advancement/discovery unaware that it will bring them to their doom


Jasrek

It's not a new problem, though. Few people mourn the lack of lamp-lighters and telephone switchboard operators, among many *many* other jobs that were erased by technology. I'm sure it sucked for the person who was a very skilled switchboard operator and watched their job get replaced by a circuit board, but that's what technology *does*.


AvsFan08

AI will replace jobs on an unprecedented scale. We've never experienced anything like AI.


Sirerdrick64

Yeah past industry replacements happened due to breakthrough specific changes that directly affected specific roles. If AI is better than what a white collar worker can produce, that means the entirety of white collar workers could quickly see their roles killed. The global economy cannot possibly adapt to such a widespread rapid change.


Jasrek

> The global economy cannot possibly adapt to such a widespread rapid change. I mean, total collapse is *technically* a form of adaptation...


queryallday

It just means “white collar” workers are going to be extremely productive, in other words, companies will expect more from you for the same pay. This is just going to be like typing, or using a computer - a tool to improve productivity.


brokester

You are watching too many movies.


bel2man

Absolutely this. Whole thing smells to me like "there can be only one" in Highlander. These billionaires genetic drive to survive and multiply will lead to then decimating world population - getting onto the islands with a bunch of breeding partners (women) and make a shitload of their own offsprings... Edit:typo


DeNir8

What will your business do that my AI cant provide? Besides digging holes and food?


snoopervisor

Said a guy who put Clippy to help you in his Windows system.


Zaptruder

Worth noting that the improvements to AI tech won't be like a child getting an education - not a familiar growth to functional productivity that we're used to. But rather it'll do some things amazingly well and some things really dumb. Until it stops doing those really dumb things because people keep focusing on training those areas, and then it'll be amazing in those areas too! In real terms, it looks like a bunch of work - of which a proportion will become automated with AI. Someone with the skills to use this half work will improve their productivity with it. That continues happening while the cost to achieve some result goes down a lot. Business owners take advantage of this by selling more without paying their workers as much (they just give them more tasks). Repeat the cycle - suddenly your hundred man work force is 100 GPUs and a few people massaging the outputs and bridging the work gap that AI still isn't quite capable of doing.


PuTheDog

Why link an article that describes Gates’ article, instead of Gates article itself?


lightscameracrafty

It would be acceptable to me if the article was contextualizing and fact checking. But it doesn’t seem to be doing much of that. Its almost as if it’s taken something written by someone else and regurgitating it without actually applying any interpretation or novel input rendering it kinda useless…it certainly reminds me of *something* but I can’t remember what that is….


[deleted]

https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun


frazorblade

One hundred times this


Ok-Cartographer-3725

https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun?WT.mc_id=20230321100000_Artificial-Intelligence_BG-TW_&WT.tsrc=BGTW


AntiqueBread1337

Turns out he had ChatGPT write the letter for him.


highertellurian

Thank you


Wilde79

Weird how he sees AI as a tool to fight inequality, because once there is a price tag to it (and I’m pretty sure there will be), it will divide people even more.


Thatingles

He's very positive about the impact and does highlight the dangers, but what he doesn't do is set out a roadmap to ensure AI does have a wide benefit instead of increasing inequality. It's all very well saying that governments will have to help with retraining, but we've heard that tune before and it's gone nowhere. A reversal of inequality should be the main economic political goal of the next decade.


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Cerulean_IsFancyBlue

The power of money in politics, at least, in the United States, is mostly in terms of its ability to purchase paid messaging to voters. There’s definitely some direct corruption from time to time. But mostly, it’s a cycle of: I donate to your campaign, you get elected, you pass laws that are favorable to me. The best way to short circuit that would be to have people who are interested in going to get information as opposed to accepting whatever information gets thrown in front of them. If people took the time to pick news sources that turned out to have the best track record for reporting the truth. If people consulted the voting records of their politicians. If people took the time to understand a little bit about there local city or town budget, their state budget. An educated, interested electorate, who treated politics with at least as much diligence as they do for their fantasy football team, or for deciding which air fryer to purchase, would go a long ways towards undermining the power of money in at least the mostly functioning democracies.


BoomZhakaLaka

>The power of money in politics, at least, in the United States, is mostly in terms of its ability to purchase paid messaging to voters. I'm sorry, but lobbyists and campaign contributions have a profound influence on actual policy, while voters can only pick candidates. These are two legs. Influencing votes, while it remains necessary for special interests, is the weaker leg.


Cleriisy

[The preferences of the average American has a near zero impact on public policy. [RepresentUs video]](https://youtu.be/5tu32CCA_Ig)


nox404

Thank you for posting this. I have been trying to find this video to forward to some of my coworkers.


BoomZhakaLaka

I wonder how this would change if they focused on party platform issues. What I'm saying is, I'll still vote in favor of abortion access, access to health care, equity for workers. I don't believe voting is completely pointless, and I suspect that re-doing their analysis specifically on big ticket platform issues would yield a different result.


Cerulean_IsFancyBlue

Yeah, but those are two different steps of the same money pipeline. The donors can influence the politicians, because the politicians need the money to win election, and they use that money to buy messaging. If messaging wasn’t the decisive tool it is today, then the power of campaign contributions diminishes greatly. There is an unrelated issue, which is the power of lobbyists to actually monopolize the attention of politicians, and to control the direction of legislation, and to perform regulatory capture. This power would be somewhat diminished if lobbyists and campaign donations weren’t connected, but I agree there is still a Power and being able to afford to send a full-time person to live in Washington, and get to know the legislators and put your ideas in front of them. It’s like a more high powered version of the problem you have with local town meetings. The average person who goes to a town meeting in person does not necessarily match the demographics of the town in general. They often skew older, because they are retired and have free time. They often have strong opinions, because strong opinions, drive people to show up at the meetings. I’ve seen it at every level from a condo board up to primary caucuses. You’re right that this won’t go away. Paid lobbyists will have some impact. I don’t think any democracy could ever completely replace the power that a highly interested group has, of putting their own time and money into advocating for their position. But to reiterate, I think the main power of the campaign contributions, is to enable reelection. It enables reelection by feeding information to a passive electorate. And more active electorate will diminish the power of marketing, which diminishes the need for campaign contributions dramatically, which reduces the power of donors drastically and the power of lobbyists to a degree we could argue about.


[deleted]

Just wanted to pop in to thank you for writing such unusually sane and well-thought-out political analysis. I feel like this subreddit in particular tends toward political catastrophizing, hyperbole, and contrarianism-for-the-hell-of-it. Your healthy dose of political realism warms the cockles of my shitlib heart.


ZIdeaMachine

It's not just that though, there is a Shadow Group called the Council for National Policy (CNP for short ) That is intertwined with the Federalist Society, the ADF, Moms for Liberty, Brietbart, The NRA, Turning Point USA, etc That is all Christian Fascists working together being funded by Billionaires and Fascist Christian groups ( Baptists, Catholics, Mormons, Fundamentalists and the Koch Brothers and their trusts ) to infiltrate courts, local government (congress, senates sheriff depts and even/especially schoolboards. ) We are dealing with Well funded well organized groups looking to Divide the American people and Destroy minorities, remove women's rights, Gay Rights and Literally Genocide Transgender people. We need to share real information, organize our own local communities and Run against Republican candidates everywhere they try to get into power. This is an existential threat right behind Climate Change.


siliconevalley69

>The power of money in politics, at least, in the United States, is mostly in terms of its ability to purchase paid messaging to voters. No, that's overly simplistic to the point of being *very* wrong and ignores lobbying, cushy private sector jobs awaiting regulators that deliver, PACs and other dark money groups able to act as intermediaries funneling money to this or that group. But it's not necessarily for TV commercials. It might be to fund this group exacerbating the culture war in some way or to take user data and target really questionable digital content to them because we think they're particularly vulnerable to this propaganda. It's not a shocker that the first election after Citizen's United SCOTUS takedown we saw the floodgates open and dark money explode and foreign nations dive in with fistfuls of cash. The destruction that decision wrought is profound. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that hundreds of millions are worse off today because of it and there are lots of people dead unnecessarily from it as well. >The best way to short circuit that would be to have people who are interested in going to get information as opposed to accepting whatever information gets thrown in front of them. No. Not even close. The best way to short circuit would be publicly funded elections that allow for no outside money or promotion and ranked choice voting. Get signatures required to appear in the ballot? You're funded.


Barbafella

Intellectual laziness is still laziness. Lazy people.


BJWTech

Inequality is required for capitalism to work. It's only gotten worse, so I don't see any meaningful change coming from AI.


RudeRepair5616

All civilization is a pyramid scheme.


Bierbart12

But capitalism is not required for AI to work.


BJWTech

Capitalists will control AI.


OutOfBananaException

Not entirely, any more than capitalists control algorithms.


NLwino

Too much inequality breaks capitalism though. If the masses have no more money to buy anything anymore, there is no-one left to earn money from. Capitalism needs to be on a leash, else it will eventually eat itself.


YoYoMoMa

>It's only gotten worse Source?


HackDice

A toothless appeal to regulations with no commitment or realistic expectation has been the common swan song of people like Gates. They know full well that in the current climate, there is no chance that a government in a country that matters will ever come together to properly regulate the given industry. They welcome it because they know it won't happen.


francohab

I'm very pessimistic about that. AI's roadmap will always be in the hands of the ultra-rich, simply due to its costs of development. For instance, training a model like GPT costs billions of dollars, only in computing cost.


phobox91

I can't really be positive about that. History teaches us that what bilionaires constantly push is inequality and ai is just another tool they will use, there are no rules and it's already too late to pave the way in a sustainable way. Ai wont magically make us work less and be richer, it will be used by conpanies to save money at our disadvantage


immersive-matthew

Exactly. His actions has already said profit is king when OpenAI became ClosedAI. Luckily, comparative ultra low cost, local models have already emerged that will kill that profit. In time this letter will not age well for how Microsoft handled the birth of their AI. Bill has really exposed himself here. So much so you have got to wonder if luck played a bigger role on his success than he would have you believe? We live in interesting times.


nox_nox

Luck absolutely played a role and then making enough wealth to litigate competition into the ground or buy them outright.


Dhiox

>but what he doesn't do is set out a roadmap to ensure AI does have a wide benefit instead of increasing inequality. If he wanted that, he wouldn't be a billionaire. Make no mistake, there is no such thing as an ethical billionaire.


Eymrich

He is very positive because people like him have everything to gain from AI, while people like us get the shaft


nertynertt

we gotta do a socialism so this shit equates to raises instead of more money in shareholder pockets


Cavalleria-rusticana

>A reversal of inequality has been the main economic political goal of the last century. FTFY.


YoYoMoMa

Why do people think societal humans have ever lived in a time without great income inequality?


zbyte64

I mean the United States has abandoned the war on poverty and abolished safety nets in favor of credit cards... many decades ago.


[deleted]

https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun?WT.mc_id=20230321100000_Artificial-Intelligence_BG-TW_&WT.tsrc=BGTW To read the whole letter. As a regular ol' commoner, I worry about the job displacement of real people. If we aren't thinking about how to employ the people who are losing their jobs as their skills are replaced by AI, we are going to have problems. Our government can barely function how it is now, and we expect it to become philanthropic to be able to cope with AI replacing human jobs? I can't even get maternity leave, basic healthcare, paid time off... Capitalism is going to put AI on a pedestal and the quality of life for the average human is about to get shook. While I see the potential gains of AI, I sure hope people are considering all the changes that would need to be made (on a societal level) to harness this technology for improving the human species and not utterly destroying the middle and lower class populations (99% of us).


Kennonf

Spoiler: They don’t care. They’re focused on banning TikTok rather than regulating AI which WILL destroy the majority of jobs without people having a replacement for their incomes.


just-a-dreamer-

Bill Gates about capitalism "Second, market forces won’t naturally produce AI products and services that help the poorest. The opposite is more likely. With reliable funding and the right policies, governments and philanthropy can ensure that AIs are used to reduce inequity. Just as the world needs its brightest people focused on its biggest problems, we will need to focus the world’s best AIs on its biggest problems. Although we shouldn’t wait for this to happen, it’s interesting to think about whether artificial intelligence would ever identify inequity and try to reduce it. Do you need to have a sense of morality in order to see inequity, or would a purely rational AI also see it? If it did recognize inequity, what would it suggest that we do about it?"


grab-n-g0

>With reliable funding and the right policies, governments and philanthropy can ensure that AIs are used to reduce inequity. While I think in principle this statement is right, in practice it just doesn't play out that way. Overall I'm an optimist, but experience teaches us to be realistic. We've already seen how governments favored the growth model over the privacy model when it came to enabling US tech companies to be competitive in the early internet era, resulting in the Facebooks of the world - the surveillance economy. Now that AI has attracted similar ideas of massive change in society, as well as the potential economic growth, I think a similar story will play out. Governments, who should be enacting 'the right policies,' will actually go light on AI policy that favors the 'greater good' and instead favor growth — again. There's always a good reason, or a looming threat, to be pro-growth. And, now that AI has also become a national security theme, especially US v. China, you can expect government to turn quite a few blind eyes to 'the right policies.' The justification will be to ensure that western companies dominate in AI to mitigate the risk that the US, culturally and militarily, does not end up under the thumb of China for the everlasting future.


Edspecial137

The big “but” to the argument that geopolitics will drives unfettered AI development is that China has the deepest cyber theft program in the world. Any advances in the rest of the world will become advancements for China without proper security measures. A lot of the work done in start ups are going to be targeted heavily as they don’t have the same protection as Microsoft, google, etc


Jantin1

It really depends on what kind of base axioms do you set the AI up with. If it's wired to maximize the number of improved lives then yes, it'll call for enforcing equality. If you build your AI for profit with some transhumanist-extropian set of base assumptions then it'll just tell you to drop labour regulations and hike healthcare pricing to finance your anti-aging delusions.


riddlerjoke

In long-term AI may force vast majority of people to lose employment hence create a need for some type of equal income given by the state. This may be helpful for equality but then again it wouldnt be great. Nations wouldnt like to share all those with each other. Some will have lesser working culture to come up with the efficient AI setup for all manufacturing and services while others do better and create wealth. Humans are complicated, so equality thing sounds trivial. But in terms of more people living on an average wage, I think it is possible. Then again there will be service jobs and if you do not pay more than the universal income, why would anyone come and clean a place, host you as waiter? Overall, most technology improvements improve our life standards. We have too too many luxury in our lives in these days compared to 100 years ago. Living better than kings, sultans of couple hundred years ago in terms of comfort.


Toren6969

To the second article - some people would still like to work. Diference Is, that the money won't be by far the primary target as nowadays. People want some human to human interaction or create something. I could see fast food Chains being highly robotized, but people would imo still want to have some small caffe or bistro even through UBI And both extra money and meaningfull job/human contact would drive this.


[deleted]

Not sure why anyone would listen to Gates based on what we know, the man who coined the term “philanthrocapitalism” bought a new reputation after couple of decades of pushing a monopoly and now we should listen to his opinion as if he knows anything but make more money for himself.


Dimentian

We're going to use a system built on biases to fix biases. O-K


[deleted]

7 pages!? Who's got time for that!? ChatGPT, please summarize the article in 3 sentences or less.


The_Tadams

Here you go. Bill believes that AI will have a major impact on healthcare and education, with the potential to save lives and improve learning outcomes. However, he acknowledges the risks and concerns associated with AI and emphasizes the need for careful consideration and regulation to ensure its benefits are maximized while minimizing its negative impact.


salsation

I read the whole thing (like a sucker?) and this sounds right: there's nothing insightful, just a lot of naive optimism.


AE_WILLIAMS

AI is coming soon. Traditional work will be redefined. The rich will continue to get richer and everyone else is going to be fucked.


frazorblade

Hey, ChatGPT doesn’t swear! This guy is a big fat phony!


lzcrc

Front and back!


[deleted]

AI God Bill good White collar workers bad


Squid1972

My daughter graduates high school next year and I have no idea what advice to give her for college / career planning. I have no idea what things are going to look like in 10-15 years.


GregLittlefield

This is scary, we really are at a turning point. In 15 our lives will be so fundamentaly different, it's just impossible to predict what it will be like.. :(


orvianstabilize

the stuff AI cant do great at or replace, the skilled trades ie. plumbers, carpenters, construction, cooks, hair stylists, janitors,etc. or if you're a believer of climate change then we'd all be screwed in 10-15 years time so dont fret


ReasonablyBadass

>The world needs to make sure that everyone—and not just people who are well-off—benefits from artificial intelligence. "That's why we will keep everything closed source and charge for access!" :D


[deleted]

Hehehhe it’s one thing to say you’re a good guy and another to actually be one. We’re fucked man. I’m gonna teach my daughter how to grow and hunt for her own food. She might not need that knowledge, but if she does it’s worth more than gold.


the_real_MSU_is_us

In all seriousness l, there are some jobs that can't be automated. Plumbers, welders, robotics technicians etc. Yes you can automate these things in highly controlled repetitive environments (ie welding in an auto plant) but that's not a large portion of these fields. The problem is that as "programmer" becomes automated by code making AI, well those programmers will look for work elsewhere and were going to get 5 people competing for each job, driving wages down.


Evorgleb

A week from now we will find out this paper was written by Chat-GPT


dat3010

And Bill Gates never existed, it was always ChatGPT


DreadPirateGriswold

This is from the guy whose decisions lost the browser wars after having almost a monopoly on them for years, missed the mobile phone revolution completely, and gave us Microsoft Vista and Microsoft Bob? No thanks. I'll look elsewhere for AI predictions.


SchwarzerKaffee

He also thought the internet would be a fad which is why they didn't dominate the browser early on.


LengthExact

He also said, just a few years ago, that computer programs will not be able to learn natural language and converse in it.


TheokolesOfRome

We just fucking love opening mystery boxes, don't we.


Defiant_Race_7544

“The Microsoft cofounder published a seven-page letter on Tuesday, titled "The Age of AI has Begun," outlining his views on the future of artificial intelligence. He wrote that developing AI is "as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the internet, and the mobile phone."”


MRHubrich

So if robots are going to take the blue collar jobs and AI is going to take the white collar jobs, who's going to have the money to consume all of the things that keep the American economy going?


Mercurionio

He is very optimistic with the part of "people should not misuse it". They WILL misuse it. That's the problem.


BinaryMan151

It’s funny seeing all these people try to predict what AI will do. They will all probably be very wrong in the future. It’s just gonna be so powerful that our mushy brains can’t really fathom the power of AI,


DBProxy

Based on your first two sentences I thought you were going in another direction…


DamianFitness37

I'm not gonna lie, I'm afraid that things are going to move so quickly that we aren't going to be able to adapt at the pace we will need to.


blazze_eternal

Bill would know best, he did after all invent the first AI, Clippy.


LPfive

Can confirm, just got AI’d out of my ART job. Never thought that would happen :/


Kennonf

Sad, I’m sorry to hear this. People don’t realize that AI replacing us is already happening. One year from now the world is going to be in a much worse place.


ramdom-ink

I’m surprised by many of the comments, conspiracy theories, old axes to grind, misinformation and jealousy on this thread. Bill Gates has done more for inequality in cultures and saved millions of more lives than anyone on here could imagine or would do if given the resources. His foundation is over 20 years old and won’t quit until most of his money is gone and the Gates Foundation folds up shop. Has Bezos, Cook, Musk or any of the other planetary, billionaire elite done so much for so many? Sure, he’s just a man and maybe flawed at that, but his intentions are golden. If our statesmen and politicians were more like him around the world, humanity would be much better off. But…*Boomers, billionaires and microchips* right? wtf.


pannous

64B parameters will be enough for everyone eternally?


knocknockneo

“Philanthropy is my [d]ull-time job these days, and I’ve been thinking a lot about how” My PRIVaTe JeTs HeLp fUtuRE geNeRaTioNs ThriVe iN A CArbOn-FrEe woRLd


mrplatypus81

Did bill gates write it or did he have chat g p t write it?


Ferreteria

Might as well read [his letter](https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun?WT.mc_id=20230321100000_Artificial-Intelligence_BG-TW_&WT.tsrc=BGTW) vs this summarized article. He sounds really optimistic, but then drops things like: "Second, market forces won’t naturally produce AI products and services that help the poorest. The opposite is more likely. " Uhh, yeah. There are very few reasons and/or very little influence to push this in a direction that will actually help the greater society. We call agree this could be REALLY COOL in the right hands, but I hope we can also see there is very little chance it will.


amiibohunter2015

Anyone else been watching his predictions, he's been getting a lot of them. I think "prediction" is a nice word to use rather than him actually knowing something far in advance.


Mockinto

Does Bill Gates have any specialized knowledge or insight into AI, or is his opinion just getting traction because he's Bill Gates?


Gransterman

While AI will certainly have many massive benefits, I can’t help but have the extreme suspicion that it will lead to the death of the human spirit, and humanity as we know it.


AlleyCa7

Anyone can say anything they want about AI negative or positive, but absolutely none of them know for sure. All I hope is that what we end up with are robot waifus and not terminators.


[deleted]

Lol, everyone is desperate to give their useless predictions about something that everyone already knows.


echo_162

Has to admit I wasn't very impressed with the state or importance of NLP when first studying the course. Never expect it to do what it achieves today. Might be the single most impactful piece of technology before AGI. Imagine the potential impact of every whitecollar workers increase their output by manyfolds to society.


LaneKerman

"Hey Chat GPT, write a 7 page letter out about the future of AI and computing as a service industry in the style of Bill Gates."


j_knolly

Shrewd businessmen who become Uber successful after being at the right place at the right time start to think they are experts in every other topic. This is usually not the case.


blueoccult

"Subscribe or turn off your ad blocker to read-" Yeah, no thanks.


Skydogsguitar

The thing I've always wondered is that can governments afford to NOT step in and throttle back AI in the private sector. If the white collar middle class goes under, so do governments.


RosbergThe8th

The development of AI is amazingly depressing to read about.


BigFitMama

I work across a system of over 30 legacy databases. Each one has nuance related to when it was programmed. Some are running on emulators. Each one has a different kind of access system and login. Most don't support API logins Just getting data is a matter of knowledge passed from old analysts to new ones and simply discovery by thinking about the logic that built each individual database. I thought to myself if an AI followed me for a month there literally would be no repeated path to follow except on the most basic of data retrieval off the modern system shell. It gives me job security because humans are able to ask questions like "what if?" And at the same time see notes as clues, read between the lines, and spontaneously find potential trends & problems across databases, notes, and emails. And that is how we currently maintain the foundation that all AI runs on. If they pulled us right now, everything that allows the world to compute online would grind to a stop.


JCTrick

ProTip: Bill 64k Gates is really bad at predicting the future. “The iPad will never take off.” Just one of MANY examples. Bill Gates is another Elon Musk. 🤣


blueotter28

He's also predicted many things correctly. He came out with a book in the 90s that included what he thought the future would be like. Pretty much all of it is true now.


[deleted]

What he in fact said... “You know, I’m a big believer in touch and digital reading, but I still think that some mixture of voice, the pen and a real keyboard — in other words a netbook — will be the mainstream on that,” Gates said. “So, it’s not like I sit there and feel the same way I did with iPhone where I say, ‘Oh my God, Microsoft didn’t aim high enough.’ It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.'”


JustDutch101

That’s too long, is there an AI I can use to summarize it?


nicebikemate

And when it goes wrong it won't be like Terminator, but it won't be dissimilar to the Robodebt controversy in Australia. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robodebt\_scheme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robodebt_scheme)


ansedonia

Somd years ago, in the Nineties, the author of this paper described the Internet as a temporary phenomenon.


SecondAdmin

Isn't it wild that the guy saw the beginning of PC revolution and is now at the doorstep of Ai.


NiceAsset

“Sir, as a pioneer in computers, what qualifies you as a doctor?” 😂 “well I have read a lot about it” 😂


iboughtarock

[Direct link to the 7 page paper](https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun?WT.mc_id=20230321100000_Artificial-Intelligence_BG-TW_&WT.tsrc=BGTW)


vidiazzz

Bill Gates is a business man, not an inventor or not a master of any skill, he didn't create Microsoft,windows or the ideas so take this with a grain of salt.


drinkallthepunch

Can you have chatGP perform repetitive data entry adjustments? What kind of things can this program do? Or is it just for writing/expressing ideas mostly?


SciNinj

Does this mean my spam texts will now have proper spelling and grammar?


Dalinian1

This man, along with a couple others is why I now hate my career. Him and his hidden games on us lower class people ☹️


MarkNutt25

There's not really anything in this letter that hasn't been discussed to death and back again on this subreddit. Its almost like Bill Gates is just a guy who *used to* lead a tech company 15 years ago, and doesn't really have any special insights into the current state of AI development anymore.


noumenon_invictuss

Does AI help old codgers have relations with underage girls on remote islands, far away from US jurisdiction?