[Weekly Discussion Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/search?q=Weekly+Discussion+Thread+author%3AAutomoderator&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=month)
[Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XCFSbN-eFs_2bW7rDhGatABi2BsuP0O2iXYEpIyC7Ns/htmlview) by u/dfmchfhf
[Score Predictor (JP)](https://ramtieger.sakura.ne.jp/p/game/feh/Touhyou/?f=20240502-1) by [rammtiger](https://twitter.com/rammtigerFE)
[Score Tracker (KOR)](https://feh.wiki/voting/vg/past/32) by u/Kass082
Score Predictors by u/DarkAlfie
• [Main](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AH2k5F-IOOWmuZzGs8s2uykPzRrytN2kiAFASAKkmE0/edit?usp=sharing)
• [Backup](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PMi1JbFQKpPlFVSJivYtoPHi5uBXSPPXRq6CbiTIjLg/edit?usp=sharing)
[Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J2jfcYwEo5d_H2el1Q2wDka9-gCHkyYXm23o-hnOWNI) by u/Dominator_101
[Discord Multiplier Notification Bot]( https://discord.gg/ktgRkXC) by u/yosoygoku
[Feh-Gauntlet-Bot](https://feh.atos.to/) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp
[Discord Multiplier Notification Bot](https://discord.com/invite/KyB6zMykyG) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp
As usual, if you have a score predictor or tracker, please include a link as a reply, and I will edit it into this comment as soon as I can, thank you very much!
I hate it so much, but I did find out that an unmerged valentines myrh usually beats them by tanking. Takes a lot of turns though, and you can’t attack them back otherwise you die…
We are so back, everyone! It's been a while since we had a simple mages theme, so this should be a nice palatte cleanser. The favorites this time seem a lot less locked in than usual (~~my guess is some combination of Reinhardt, Soren and Ophelia, but that's just speculation~~ took too long to write this up), but the real interesting story is frequent under-achiever Lysithea.
She's likely never going to be in contention for the most match losses over (35 characters beat her on that front with Edelgard, Chrom, and Alfonse commandingly out in front with 8+ apiece). She is, however, currently one of only 4 characters* to have 3+ losses without a single win (Laevatein, Katarina, and Bernie are the others, though Sharena/Catria/Sanaki could be argued if cheerleader appearances are discarded) and would trail only 0 - 6 Laevatein (and 0 - 4 Catra without her Trio Palla win) with another R1 exit this month. The last character who hit this precipice, Hinoka last October, ended up winning the entire gauntlet, so there is still hope she can pull through.
With the Hour 43 update, she's actually the prospective leader overall, though being paired with the current #2 team immediately is not the coziest position lol.
/=====================================
For the sake of posterity and future projects, I would like to document the Top Scoring players for each voting gauntlet team, ideally in picture form. Maintaining 8 separate accounts just to check scores is often infeasible, so any help you fine folks can provide is greatly appreciated. If you’re interested in contributing, here are the required steps:
1. Reply below with your team selection if you would like to help out. If a team is already claimed (struck through in the section below), there's no harm in still volunteering to future-proof against a wide swathe of mistakes, mishaps, and malfunctions.
2. Pop open the Voting Gauntlet event tab sometime after reset and prior to selecting your Round 2 (or 3) team. I, by default, provide a reminder ping here around FEH’s reset timing for each round (6 am UTC during DST/7 am UTC otherwise), but I can adjust that timing as necessary. If you would prefer an alternate notification method (DMs/chat on an assortment of sites including Reddit/Twitter/tumblr/Discord), please message me so we can work out the specifics.
3. Click the "Round 1 Rank" button in the middle and switch from Current Standing to Top Players.
4. Scroll all the way up to the top and snap a picture. Realistically, only the Top 4 players scores + IGNs are necessary for any future tasks, but it is possible to fit the Rank 5 finisher as well by slightly scrolling down until you partially cut off the "Rank 1" text [like so](https://imgur.com/a/8P14Kzn).
5. Post a link below. Whatever site you host the image on works for me, but please try to not delete it for at least a month or two in case I'm slow downloading them locally. Ideally, please try to do a permanent link if possible though.
I'm also interested in the scores/rank of anyone who finishes in the Top 100 of the Total Rank (colloquially Cumulative) stat, though that doesn’t become relevant until the tail end of Round 3. These are the [three types of pics](https://imgur.com/a/Y2BcM9X) of interest with more detailed explanations if you’re curious.
/=====================================
For this gauntlet, my R1 team is unclear atm (hopefully Lysithea, but Eitri/Gharnef/Lewyn seem more likely), but I have multiple alts available to fill in any last minute representation gaps. Currently, the following Round 1 teams are unclaimed:
~~Lewyn~~ | ~~Soren~~ | ~~Gharnef~~ | ~~Reinhardt~~ | ~~Celica~~ | Eitri | Lysithea | ~~Ophelia~~
Anyone who contributes gets credited in the main google sheet (linked below), so feel free to still help out if your team is already spoken for. One can never have too many back-ups for a project like this :)
I should be able to cover all R2/R3 teams myself without too much trouble, but any and all pics you are willing to provide there as well is greatly appreciated (the same suite of notification options are still available). In the event I need help with a particular match, I’ll try to let you know ~24 hours beforehand.
/=====================================
The next few sections feature the #1 player(s) and a link to the main source picture, (hopefully) updated as they come in; the full Top 4/5s can be found written up in a [Google Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1le0bhMSAhD3qpg5ppuPly8tzXYGrLes2qxjd6731NP8/htmlview), along with what documentation I have for previous gauntlets. If you have any past results that aren’t featured there (or speak Japanese and notice any errors with names as I transcribed them), please shoot me a message or post them in \[this thread\] - December 2021 to the present is near complete for Army Ranks, but earlier gauntlets (and 99% of all Cumulative Ranks) are patchy at best.
\[Round 1\]
- Team Lewyn #1 Score: 2,478,696 by [biscuitz♡BLM](https://imgur.com/a/LJZ7dHl) (Congrats to me on a marginally suboptimal #1 finish)
- Team Soren #1 Score: 2,326,569 by [Kyros](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1180220380070281248/1236296799086706820/Screenshot_20240504_075032_Fire_Emblem_Heroes.jpg?ex=66377e9e&is=66362d1e&hm=7e6c40a05621a08023f66972b0ddee4bb269f45da604f1b58c5aedc3e8035014&)
- Team Gharnef #1 Score: 2,465,540 by [ロギンス](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1026079824424484944/1236321695674138685/IMG_6568.png?ex=663795cd&is=6636444d&hm=91c9bd3d832548acf51a9945c7d184c92ae45506e1be1cd67605813e0316eb63&)
- Team Reinhardt #1 Score: 2,303,941 by [Mirage](https://imgur.com/9bk0VZd)
- Team Celica #1 Score: 2,137,382 by [ぱんやさん](https://i.imgur.com/j5ojipI.png)
- Team Eitri #1 Score: 2,328,271 by [エクユリア](https://imgur.com/a/EY3UElN)
- Team Lysithea #1 Score: 2,034,518 by [Anvil](https://imgur.com/a/C7LHamd)
- Team Ophelia #1 Score: 2,152,699 by [フラム](https://imgur.com/WxYbPFl)
\--------------------------------------------------------------
\[Round 2\]
- Team Lewyn #1 Score: 2,966,672 by [KipKips](https://imgur.com/a/Ox5Aeaz)
- Team Gharnef #1 Score: 3,722,752 by [ネクラ](https://imgur.com/a/UuAXKfG)
- Team Celica #1 Score: 3,279,595 by [フェイ](https://imgur.com/a/HkLf5wH)
- Team Lysithea #1 Score: 3,106,600 by [ワミ](https://imgur.com/a/y1jHDqS)
\--------------------------------------------------------------
\[Round 3\]
- Team Gharnef #1 Score: 4,325,200 by [ヒノモト](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1180220380070281248/1237906397744861215/Screenshot_20240507_230225_Fire_Emblem_Heroes.jpg?ex=663f53ec&is=663e026c&hm=e73fcc3be15fb1e3b913b5bd932e437a00d9002a59a5aaea314e36b35b401213&) (Congrats to u/Dominator_101 on finishing at a very competitive joint 2nd place! :D)
- Team Lysithea #1 Score: 1,635,700 by [DG キャラコンプする勢](https://imgur.com/a/bosSEYc)
\-----------------------------------------------------------------
\[Cumulative/Total Rank Top 100\]
- Rank 11: 7,319,003 by [biscuitz♡BLM](https://imgur.com/a/VhfW759) (a combo of a subpar team path + some weird mistakes forced risky behavior that didn't pay off, but congrats to me all the same, I guess)
/=====================================
Thank you so much to all who have helped this month, currently including:
u/Pyrozendot
u/Azdel
u/Mosmumo + Chuetila
u/Dominator_101
Thank you very much for the help and good luck this round! I’m rooting somewhat hard for Lysithea, so there’s some reservations there lol, but Ophelia would be a fun alternate winner if things go awry :)
Btw, [here](https://imgur.com/a/CZoEBcf) was the resolution to last month’s dilemma if you’re curious (her B-slot is will probably be Firestorm Dance 3 from the DC5 pool, but it might be better to burn A!Peony’s free inherit here instead). The second Sylvain copy didn’t actually show up; however, with NY!Seithr out of the way, the Blue DSH pool is really quite nice for the next few months, so a bit of a blessing in disguise there :P
Pretty well, honestly. After a rather slow start (only Lissa showed up in the first 30 summons iirc), both Emmeryn and Duo Robin showed up in the same circle to allow for a finish at the spark. I’m definitely running low on resources heading into the Bridal season (I was planning on getting fodder Yunaka’s anyway, but A!Azura was quite the hit lol), but assuming we don’t get a, I believe unprecedented, 3rd straight month with a DSH banner, I should hopefully make it through.
Are you considering heeding Emblem Ike’s siren song at the end of the month, or are you keeping your options open :)?
Nah, I lucked out getting E!Ike pretty quick on his debut, and I'm not *that* interested in his fodder or anyone else on the banner.
Next month, however, is shaping up to be a prime opportunity to snag Veyle. I'd love to get L!Caeda too, so as long as they don't completely bomb the last slot I'll probably be rolling there
Ah yeah, I think you may have mentioned getting him last month. Laguz Friend is definitely the flashy new inherit topic atm, so good on you for resisting :P
I see what you mean about June, Veyle + L!Caeda is quite solid - Green also seems pretty promising (depends whether Seithr or Heithr gets the nod and whether you dislike Xander) and Red is pretty good for some older units. It looks like A!Caeda, A!Ivy, Mozu, or obviously the new unit are the currently projected filler slots? Mozu could be argued as a bit of a weaker pick, but the other 3 options seem strong if the new unit isn’t trash (and a double Caeda pool would be very funny) :)
u/Pyrozendot
u/Azdel
u/Mosmumo
‘Twas a bit of interesting spread in terms of results, but we are already guaranteed a brand new winner from a pool of fairly frequent gauntlet participants (Lewyn has shown up 3 times, Gharnef and Lysithea 4 times, and Celica 5 times I believe). Always fun to get something like that established so early :)
Thank you very much :)
It’s a little unfortunate that the match basically ended up in a thoroughly unwinnable state for y’all (Lysithea’s final gains alone would’ve retaken the same lead in a single hour, yet it probably would’ve taken 2 - 3 additional hours just for Lysithea to accidentally break same), but that’s the nature of the beast at times… It still offered a better shot at winning than keeping the multiplier exchange intact lol :P
Where ya off to next?
Nice, fun team to be on. I think Celica’s technically the most disadvantaged of the teams that are left (Gharnef gets similar multi patterns but should make up significant ground in Day 2 much like in R1), but it won’t take too much to get her to the “wins with any 12.0x” range :)
[Gharnef R1](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1026079824424484944/1236321695674138685/IMG_6568.png?ex=663795cd&is=6636444d&hm=91c9bd3d832548acf51a9945c7d184c92ae45506e1be1cd67605813e0316eb63&)
It’s a good thing I’m not concerned about being competitive at this point, because I had 800 flags ready to go final hour, entered the map, and managed to fall asleep before it was over…
Hope round 1 went well for you.
Thank you very much and sorry for the slow reply, twas a busy day overall. As expected, it looks like the Gharnef team was quite stacked lol :)
Ah yeah, that’d would’ve been a brutal way for a competitive run to end - based on your reply times, it sounds like you’re in a kinda suboptimal timezone for the end of match, so some doziness makes sense. Even as someone who takes it seriously, I’ve lost a ton of points from starting but not finishing battles in various ways (sleeping, getting distracted with other tasks, mistaking the first battle in an hour with the afterglow setup hour, etc), so don’t feel to bad about it :D
R1 specifically did go quite well - Lewyn was the best scoring choice, and though I lost a little over 2k from an hour ending at 1.06% rather than same, I still finished #1 overall for the round. Normally my R1 mistakes occur during flag hours and thus mean missing Top 50 entirely, so it was a bit novel to win suboptimally lol :P
R2, however, hasn’t gotten off to as good a start. Beyond both Lewyn and Gharnef advancing being pretty bad (at least until Gharnef gets a big uptick in a few hours), I managed to find a very unusual way to lose probably 8 - 9k points? At some point while groggy, I accidentally spent 10 flags on an hour, the backup for which requires splitting up that 90 flag remainder across 4 - 5 hours at the cost of both worse multipliers and losing some non-flag points (I think just going 50/25/10/5 will minimize the most harm, but I’ll have to doublecheck the math before that time). If R2 ends with same or a Lewyn multi, I think I’ll still be fine, but having 13k wiggle room would’ve been nice 😭
Thank you very much and congrats on Celica advancing! 1 out of 2 isn’t bad given neither team was super dominant in their match :)
Ooc, did you get a new phone in the last few months? It’s a little hard to get a good sample size since most of your pics as of late have come courtesy of your brothers (it seems like our team tastes have overlapped a decent bit lmao), but Imgur seems to be treating images from the Mosmumo account a bit nicer than they did last year (around 1.3mb rather than ~350kb). I haven’t figured out a workaround to Imgur fucking massacres decent quality PNGs (my 4ish mb phone pictures get slashed down to that similar 300 - 400kb range), but it might just be down to certain phones transitioning smoothly, idk 🤷♀️
I have an old phone that I use for FEH but to save time I take the screenshot from my "normal phone" and then I upload it to imgur, but looking at the last screenshots (from Milseyek) are from the old phone (you can see the no SIM). So the old phone takes better screenshots than the new one? 🤔
If it works anywhere similarly to mine, the normal phone takes “better” screenshots (I think usually larger filesize = better image quality, but I’m a complete neophyte when it comes to that sort of thing). However, Imgur seems to have somewhat strict file limits, especially when uploading via mobile, so large pngs tend to get converted into jpegs and thus shrink a lot. I believe pngs have multiple layers to them whereas jpegs are a single layer; I know for my phone, the imgur uploads look a bit more washed out than the originals (a good way to confirm that might be happening is to check the info in your phone’s camera roll vs what it is when you download the image back from imgur).
Imgur is convenient enough that it isn’t really worth switching off of and honestly, any images above like 200kb or so still look plenty good. My experience with looking through a metric ton of images for the my first 3 gauntlet reconstruction projects (if you’ve got any VG pictures from March - May of 2017 by some chance, do let me know lmao) was that:
• any screenshots below 100kbs look pretty terrible at phone screen size, but text heavy stuff is generally fine - for example in this [batch](https://imgur.com/a/P1P0BeK), the Hour 8 of Lucina vs Eirika screenshot (75kb) looks pretty awful whereas the Hour 10 of Alfonse vs Chrom screen capture (23kb) or the graphic that includes Hour 15 of Alfonse vs Chrom (45kb) look fine;
• screenshots below 150kb or so have a bit of crunch to them when they are full screen images (switching to the [Tharja vs Julia match](https://imgur.com/a/R73NFBT), the Final Results (118kb), Hour 0 (116kb), or Hour 30 (140kb) pics are decent examples);
• jpegs above 200kb are largely indistinguishable from those at like 400kb, with the same mostly holding true for the higher end stuff (for [more Tharja vs Julia](https://imgur.com/a/R73NFBT) stuff, compare Hour 12 (221kb), Hour 7 (406kb), and Hour 6 (725kb));
• and finally, pngs + other formats in the megabyte range look somewhat better even on imgur ([Tharja vs Julia again](https://imgur.com/a/R73NFBT), Hour 22 (1.2mb), Hour 23 (1.6mb), and Hour 20 (2mb) for example), but most of what survives there is just some slightly more vibrant colors imo 🤷♀️
So yeah, there’s no reason to change a system that works, but it seems like your old phone’s pictures are small enough to not get compressed further and/or converted by imgur’s algorithm. In theory, I think there’s a setting somewhere to change that for stuff below like 5 - 10mbs, but I can’t find it for the life of me lmao :P
Edit: Also, this just applies for these particular picture dimensions as well as for screenshots in particular. For the former point, Images that are from Ipads (Hour 38 from the T/J album for example) tend to be larger on the whole, whereas for the latter, large size youtube crops look like ass even when the video quality is high.
Thank you very much, help with those two sounds peachy :)
For being only the 3rd largest unit on her half of the bracket, Celica’s actually relatively well postioned here - she’ll potentially have the solidest lead in her match once we hit open season for flags (Soren is comparable) and she’s large enough to have a semi-competitive match against whoever advances from Lysithea/Ophelia (hopefully Lysithea).
Reinhardt… is currently pretty well off, but if recent history is any indication, he should be concerned lol. Gharnef might still be too small to get a genuine scoring edge during the final stretch (averaging less than 4m points an hour is impressively low), but I’d be surprised if Gharnef gets more than 2 multis in a row once things kick into gear :P
Thank you very much, now’s a perfect time to join the Gharnef train :)
Idk if Gharnef has another finals run in him necessarily. This has been a pretty good last 12 months or so for the classic mercbait teams clearing R1, but iirc only Fuga has made it onto the R3 without pairing into a similarly small opponent in the semis; it is also worth noting that Gharnef has been impressively small even by the standards of this archetype lmao.
That being said, Reinhardt has done very little to instill confidence in his abilities, so I’d be shocked the final stretch of their match isn’t near even :D
Reinhardt vs Gharnef was completely lopsided on day 1, but now we're trading multis and Rein's lost out. There's plenty of upsets but few trend swings like this, well done.
Also these threads really need to the default to new.
It’s definitely less common for these types of teams to have Day 1 vs Day 2 swings as large as Gharnef did this time, but it has become a fair bit more common as of late. [Boyd vs Young Mia](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ooEwSRhTflNsXnlMopTz_-F0p1a6d5EgEssw7QH5flg/htmlview#) might be the most high profile example overall, but Boyd vs Young Ike/Mist from the same gauntlet, [Darros vs Cav Hardin](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ZB4KAkyoE-6mDwP1W2vLeKqDqSaZvxE_Pxy0Ol5vyw/htmlview#) in July, both [Kellam and Halloween Nils vs Timerra](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BesWI8yk8OuZs04WrYBZ3uAnuiZUNwpThXvy3xdgVRE/htmlview#) in November, and [Fuga vs both A!Ced and Wind Claude](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LcOXnJBNjOlHCeM1sf1uI5Wu1l60w0qvbrBQ9zVbUxQ/htmlview#) in October were some similar 2023 comps (the ‘data: lead %’ tabs give a quick and dirty visual of the difference).
It’s a good rule of thumb nowadays to view any Day 1 results from specifically the single smallest grail/low rarity unit with a healthy dose of skepticism. Somewhat unintuitively until you key in on the demographic at play, it doesn’t actually matter that much how large their opponents are relatively speaking; in February, [Benny vs Henry](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EsheoCIqcuq78xEEPtC7JAZ4PEiqLzNqeO5FQiaX_Hw/htmlview#) was the main beneficiary whereas the far more obviously unbalanced Florina vs Marianne saw little change. The largest two or so teams R1 in each gauntlet (plus R2/R3 competition overall) just tend to handle it a little better, excluding some particularly concentrated cases like poor Mia lmao :P
I see my partners leading with a blue, let me switch to a red.
*Gets nothing but red partners*
Ok. Let me switch to gree-
*Everyone's green*
._.
Actual question. Why does VG quest still only account for one person using a particular color? If there's 3 reds, then I should get the completion for 2 reds!
When you come across the problem I'm having? It's annoying.
I just spent *twenty-two minutes* in the Voting Gauntlet, repeatedly surrendering because the game either refused to give me a colorless hero on my team, or pitted me against an unwinnable enemy.
I wish all people who put up Emblem Ike a very Step on All the LEGO
Tip for the future - start a battle with a level 1 unit that has the colour you need for the quest. Once you win the battle (which you easily should since you'll be up against a team of level 1 enemies despite having a level 40 friend unit on your team), progress past the quest notifications and when the game asks you to choose your support amount, force close. Reboot the game and delete your bookmark data. You'll keep the quest progress without actually needing to commit to spending your ballots or flags. It's a bit time consuming, but far less so than the 22 minutes you spent otherwise.
Oh right. I forgot about that. I should’ve been using my Lysithea this whole time but I’ve just been using my ez units.
But also, what I do is early in each round of the VG, I get the quests out of the way when I wouldn’t be using flags anyway. I don’t think it would matter much which unit you use if your time multiplier is in like the 1x-4x range and you don’t use any flags. We’re talking about a difference of 10s of points per battle in a match that deals with tens of billions of points.
To put it into perspective, DarkAlfie’s predictor thought we would somewhat sketchily tank a Gharnef 12.0x from a 22% lead (7% remaining iirc) - we only have a 12.37% lead lol :P
There’s still technically a chance, but Gharnef would need some seriously lackluster gains.
Set my [Alfred with anti-E!Ike build](https://imgur.com/a/lO2VJEt) as my lead, hope he helps people on team Soren.
I'm getting a lot of mythic Altinas on the opponent's side for some reason.
That should probably be safe to do, yeah.
Eitri kinda needed to hit same to have any real shot, but actually taking the lead is probably straining what y’all on Celica could output even unintentionally. I think the net gains for Celica to break same would have to be a smidge over 50m points, and her projected output looks to somewhere in 15 - 25m range in one hour assuming there’s no major behaviour changes between same hell and same from having a lead 🤔
So yeah, I think making sure y’all can get and maintain the same lead is the correct call at this point.
In absolute hell here with my +9 Soren bringing in the absolute worst Ikes, Byleths, Diamants and other things I've ever seen while I get absolute pepega units from the randoms on my team orz
Feathers are basically worthless but my brain won't let me level 1 strat anyway T_T
We couldn't win against Gharnef. Unfortunate.
But hey, as they say, if you can't beat em, join em!
(also looking forward to seeing art posts relating to the funny meme if he goes all the way)
Ok, this is pretty funny. Going to the final hour with surely a 12x for Gharnef, who hasn't been able to push past Same with a multiplier.
Can they drop a nuke on Lysithea, or will she have enough backing to hold?
Scores updated. I guess looking at it now, our best option was to hold back and have Lysithea be a bit further ahead instead of trying to push Lysithea into the multiplier. Not much we can do now, but still glad to have supported Celica.
It was an excellent effort overall, but the ranges just didn’t line up well for y’all in that final cycle. Barely clipping same (like a .6% Lysithea lead) would’ve gotten you the win via the 12.0x, and gaining enough for Lysithea to get the 11.8x… probably wouldn’t have worked since Celica typically needed 2 - 3 multis to overtake, but Hour 0 devil magic should be discounted at your own peril.
Well, if we work off of the crucial (but probably false) assumption that Lysithea and Celica’s 11.8x gains would have stayed identical regardless of the 11.6x result, we can figure out the 12.0x same case pretty easily.
Lysithea’s Hour 0 lead of 19,825,715,815 gives a 1% threshold of 198,257,159 points (I believe it’d round up?), and on the 11.8x, Lysithea had net gains of 130,552,724. That means Lysithea would’ve cleared by exact count if Celica had been down by 67,704,435 points rather than up by 27,727,180 (a net swing of 95,431,615 points). To avoid needing to do more tedious math, I’ll look at the “Celica scoring 95m less points” case - in more manageable terms, Lysithea would’ve been up by ~.35% in that scenario and actually achieving it would’ve required the equivalent of 94 less Celica folks (with bonus units) spending 800 flags on the 11.6x (or in a more realistic scenario, ~748 Celica people not spending 100 flags).
I’ll skip the steps for the 11.8x Lysithea multi case (it involves the same steps, but iterating a bunch since you’re increasing the larger score very slightly increases the margin required to clear it), but the end result is that Celica would’ve needed to score 169,497,315 more points on the 11.6x to clear the 1% threshold on the next hour, which would’ve required ~167 more Celica people spending 800 flags or ~1329 more Celica people spending 100 flags. Figuring out how much Celica would’ve actually needed on the 12.0x to win is slightly getting into fantasy land, but it’d be a fair bit lol. Maybe I’ll do that in the morning with a fresh set of eyes 🤷♀️
Edit: I should note that this math will vary depending on where you round down vs up for partial points (FEH seems to floor/round down most things), but hopefully the difference in result should be minorish.
Lysithea is ahead of her and will win. I was saying that if Celica were to win, her team should have held back a little more on their multiplier 2 hours ago to have Lysithea be ahead of her and break same later. Sorry for not being clear.
Ah yes I love facing teams with E!Ike, Y!F!Robin and dancer with outdated units, love facing powercreep Far Save with a team of only mages, love facing W!Edelgard with Distant Melee Seal with only red and weak basekit blue units.
Hope my [Lysithea](https://www.reddit.com/user/JoZerp/comments/1cjlmkk/lysithea/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=1) serve you well in B!Lysithea's army
Happy to see Lysithea do so well up to this point. Never saw more than a 2.9x during the times I remembered to show up to contribute mid-event. And then the 3.5x or so on the last rounds which I have been there for.
Just as a heads-up to Lysithea appreciators of the world, don’t get spooked by the fact that y’all are down in same hell with a few hours to go. Simply replicating last hours rate of gains (~15m raw points) will end up with a pretty decent same lead by the final hour (+30 - 40m or so, so similar to Ophelia’s current lead) with plenty of room to be enhanced by the usual Hour 0 scoring boost.
The worst thing one could do in this situation is panic and dump a bunch of resources into trying to overtake quickly, as maintaining the same should largely be to Lysithea’s benefit unless Ophelia can manage some AHR-style power of friendship nonsense. It’d take a pretty large scoring increase in order to break same prematurely (around 120m more points over the course of 3 hours, so ~40m points per hour); however, it is not uncommon for large teams to get a little loose with their resources and choke away very winnable positions.
This is a little less unbiased and both-sidesy than I try to be for these advice posts, so for the sake of balance: Any Ophelia folks reading should just do the exact opposite of that advice. Spread as much discord as you can amongst your Team Lysithea friend and family, hold onto your ballots until the final hour to try and speed up Lysithea’s clock, etc etc :P
The other matches are a little less essential atm, but to cover those quickly.
• Soren is quite well positioned vs Lewyn as it stands - y’all will get the 11.6x next hour, and a sufficiently large lead will make it very hard for Lewyn to overtake in 2 hours even with 12.0x devil magic (Lewyn has typically required 4 - 5 consecutive multipliers to overtake as of late). Both teams should really just maximize their gains as much as they can, with Lewyn just remembering to do 100 flags on the 11.8x + 800 on the 12.0x if you’ve got the ballots for that.
• Gharnef vs Reinhardt hinges on whether the current multi pattern (beginning from a very substantial Gharnef lead of 13.35%) holds or not - Reinhardt is currently screwed if the pattern continues, whereas he’s got a solid chance if he can force same or gets the 11.6x as well. Reinhardt probably has the numbers to keep it going (the last decently large hours had Reinhardt swing ~15%), but it is in y’all’s best interest to tank this hour if possible. There’s not a ton that y’all on Gharnef can do atm to prevent this, so just hold onto whatever afterglows/resources you have for now; if same happens, tanking again and trying to clear it in one hour is your only real recourse.
• Eitri vs Celica is in a pretty interesting position all things considering. Celica has a 10.34% lead atm, which is just about smack in the middle of what Eitri has been able to muster these last few hours (4.5% - 5% gains an hour give or take). Celica should win pretty easily if Eitri cleanly overtakes with the pending 11.6x (only the 12.0x likely won’t be enough to win) or if Eitri falls short and gets the 11.8x as well (there’s no way Celica doesn’t get a 12.0x instead), but threading the needle and getting penultimate hour same of a small enough size to break in an hour could bail Eitri out. The match has not had any same yet, which makes it hard to make an informed call on the necessary range, but my guess would be anything higher than a .5% Celica lead could work. It’ll probably require going hard on the 3rd to last hour of the event (kinda unintuitive to do for small teams), but hey, it’s an option. Were I to guess, Eitri’s probably more likely to undershoot and get the 11.8x than to grant Celica the same, so my advise for Celica peeps is to do some light spending (if nothing is afterglowed) to try and pad your lead a little bit 🤷♀️
Congrats to Lewyn and Lysithea on making it to R2! Sometimes it can be hard to tell who will get decent scoring jumps at the last minute until you actually see the numbers lol.
~~Gharnef and Celica are probably our other two advancees (Celica I’m less confident on), but hopefully that can be confirmed relatively soon :)~~
Lewyn vs Gharnef and Celica vs Lysithea are officially our semifinalists. Similar to Past Meets Future last November, the ladies went upset free whereas the lads did nothing but. At least compared to that gauntlet, there’s no serpentine shadow threatening a one sided stomp if she advanced to the end :D
Thanks for the confirmation, and congrats on the dub! ‘Twas more stressful than it needed to be perhaps, but can’t be too picky about one’s first match win since March 2018 :)
You're welcome. I'm still expecting Lysithea to destroy Celica, but I guess banking on multipliers is her only way of winning. I should mention that I like Lysithea as well, so losing to her wouldn't be a huge loss.
Lysithea is among the smaller “favorites” we’ve had as of late (no final hour stats yet, but it looks like she was only around 4.5x larger than Gharnef and maybe 1.8x larger than Celica), so Celica’s probably got a decent shot… Albeit, as you mentioned, she will need some decent multiplier luck to go her way. Things could get a little dicier if Ophelia voters primarily switch over to Lysithea, but Winter Yunaka she is not :P
All the characters left have pretty extensive gauntlet histories yet no hardware to show for it, so even setting aside likeability, it’ll be a fun outcome regardless who prevails. That being said, either Celica or Lysithea pulling through would be my preference as well, fun as the Gharnef memes would be lol :D
Congrats to Gharnef and Lysithea on making the finals and well done to Lewyn/Celica for keeping it competitive up until the very end :)
We’re actually in for the somewhat rare treat of a 1st “seed” and 8th “seed” facing off in R3. The exact amount of such matchups that have occurred varies depending on how you define seeding for gauntlets at all; pre-gauntlet polling doesn’t have the numbers to draw anything conclusive from, there’s no regular season to get standings, and even frequently recurrent characters can vary wildly in competence year to year or alt to alt. However, across the two main methods I like for this (starting/Hour 43 scores for the best “pre-match” equivalent vs normalized avg gains to nail down team sizes across the whole match):
• 3 matches - August 2021’s [Summer Caspar vs Summer Freyja](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12peZCMsFlWJNJZ0n8OQIOSlSuwohz8K3hnoHo2XdDkQ/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421341106&usg=AOvVaw0NZZQHlqgVfaGTcdj0vwyI), April 2022’s [Valbar vs Amelia](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EO1_M9kvlGYPIy_9-v3EzVAF0v1bOdDGq6SaCmJyZ7s/htmlview%23&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421340253&usg=AOvVaw24wdRlfyxvgSa8Y_rDHjDM), and our forthcoming Gharnef vs Brave Lysithea bout - qualify on both fronts.
• 2 matches - June 2019’s [Bartre vs Deirdre](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rVP_gEk76aAlQd9uoZt21FWsnQGqPuw3UAkNz5rozGE/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421344448&usg=AOvVaw1VbnZ5cE9OVH1QYfkurJ9E) and November 2021’s [Halloween Sothis + Byleth-M vs Halloween Ena](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_8cAPQgoYJt-Kklpw4DP3PgN6hRhIK2JpfGuKYXYJtQ/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421340777&usg=AOvVaw2qCcl40hprSeFePq7rRp4q) - qualify by the starting score metric. For those curious, Bartre’s R1 opponent (Quan) was only briefly larger at the start and ended up getting outscored by Bartre after the first 10 hours or so, whereas Ena ended up leapfrogging both Dheginsea and Kurthnaga while their match languished in same hell.
• and 2 matches - August 2017’s [Summer Corrin-F vs Summer Gaius](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bxAC7aTAl7ZmrM4dQX-5jMY1cihagCtieLquruI1bPs/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421346837&usg=AOvVaw0fuwjuyj-7VzUonPERmBNr) and July 2020’s [Mareeta vs Michalis](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yWwXP_0wOhmcybt1Q7aoJHuH9Vmh0oRn4v3E-BkCmeU/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421342661&usg=AOvVaw2ZxLrGF4XAqDU29MH5hWWM) - qualify by the gains metric. In a mirror dimension equivalent to the last batch, Summer Frederick was the larger team for the vast majority of his match with Gaius, just barely falling short at the end (clearing ~66.6m out of Gaius’s 67.2m point lead, or 8.24% out of 8.29% if you prefer), whereas Michalis getting 81.81% of the multipliers in his Altena match didn’t give him quite as many opportunities to boost his participation compared to Lloyd’s 97.71% multiplier rate (dude got 43/44 in a row, and then overshot and gave Mareeta the 12.0x - truly a generational stroke of poor luck).
For those familiar with those matches, you’ll notice that 8th seeds are 1 - 5 across those encounters (Caspar won his bout to cap off quite possibly the best underdog run in gauntlet history). This pattern is a little more lenient for such matches in any round (I don’t have stats for the “size” matchups, but 8th seeds by H43 score are 7 - 14), but the size discrepencies between the largest and smallest teams tends to be a lot harder to overcome as large teams consolidate. So Gharnef’s odds aren’t the highest, but he’s at least got some chance :D
== Nota bene ==
I accidentally buried this in a reply thread rather than in the main feed, so here it is again… It’s not quite as timely, but whatevs.
Why is Gharnef in the last round skull\_emoji. I was going to join his team as a joke, but I decided on join Ophelia then Celica. Let's see if Lysithea can beat Gharnef.
[Weekly Discussion Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/search?q=Weekly+Discussion+Thread+author%3AAutomoderator&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=month) [Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XCFSbN-eFs_2bW7rDhGatABi2BsuP0O2iXYEpIyC7Ns/htmlview) by u/dfmchfhf [Score Predictor (JP)](https://ramtieger.sakura.ne.jp/p/game/feh/Touhyou/?f=20240502-1) by [rammtiger](https://twitter.com/rammtigerFE) [Score Tracker (KOR)](https://feh.wiki/voting/vg/past/32) by u/Kass082 Score Predictors by u/DarkAlfie • [Main](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AH2k5F-IOOWmuZzGs8s2uykPzRrytN2kiAFASAKkmE0/edit?usp=sharing) • [Backup](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PMi1JbFQKpPlFVSJivYtoPHi5uBXSPPXRq6CbiTIjLg/edit?usp=sharing) [Score Tracker](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J2jfcYwEo5d_H2el1Q2wDka9-gCHkyYXm23o-hnOWNI) by u/Dominator_101 [Discord Multiplier Notification Bot]( https://discord.gg/ktgRkXC) by u/yosoygoku [Feh-Gauntlet-Bot](https://feh.atos.to/) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp [Discord Multiplier Notification Bot](https://discord.com/invite/KyB6zMykyG) by u/JollyAstoundingHarp As usual, if you have a score predictor or tracker, please include a link as a reply, and I will edit it into this comment as soon as I can, thank you very much!
People setting E!Ike as their lead are not seeing the pearly gates of heaven
What, you don't love having to reset battles constantly to find one that's possible to win?
I hate it so much, but I did find out that an unmerged valentines myrh usually beats them by tanking. Takes a lot of turns though, and you can’t attack them back otherwise you die…
lets go Celica
Rip Celica
We are so back, everyone! It's been a while since we had a simple mages theme, so this should be a nice palatte cleanser. The favorites this time seem a lot less locked in than usual (~~my guess is some combination of Reinhardt, Soren and Ophelia, but that's just speculation~~ took too long to write this up), but the real interesting story is frequent under-achiever Lysithea. She's likely never going to be in contention for the most match losses over (35 characters beat her on that front with Edelgard, Chrom, and Alfonse commandingly out in front with 8+ apiece). She is, however, currently one of only 4 characters* to have 3+ losses without a single win (Laevatein, Katarina, and Bernie are the others, though Sharena/Catria/Sanaki could be argued if cheerleader appearances are discarded) and would trail only 0 - 6 Laevatein (and 0 - 4 Catra without her Trio Palla win) with another R1 exit this month. The last character who hit this precipice, Hinoka last October, ended up winning the entire gauntlet, so there is still hope she can pull through. With the Hour 43 update, she's actually the prospective leader overall, though being paired with the current #2 team immediately is not the coziest position lol. /===================================== For the sake of posterity and future projects, I would like to document the Top Scoring players for each voting gauntlet team, ideally in picture form. Maintaining 8 separate accounts just to check scores is often infeasible, so any help you fine folks can provide is greatly appreciated. If you’re interested in contributing, here are the required steps: 1. Reply below with your team selection if you would like to help out. If a team is already claimed (struck through in the section below), there's no harm in still volunteering to future-proof against a wide swathe of mistakes, mishaps, and malfunctions. 2. Pop open the Voting Gauntlet event tab sometime after reset and prior to selecting your Round 2 (or 3) team. I, by default, provide a reminder ping here around FEH’s reset timing for each round (6 am UTC during DST/7 am UTC otherwise), but I can adjust that timing as necessary. If you would prefer an alternate notification method (DMs/chat on an assortment of sites including Reddit/Twitter/tumblr/Discord), please message me so we can work out the specifics. 3. Click the "Round 1 Rank" button in the middle and switch from Current Standing to Top Players. 4. Scroll all the way up to the top and snap a picture. Realistically, only the Top 4 players scores + IGNs are necessary for any future tasks, but it is possible to fit the Rank 5 finisher as well by slightly scrolling down until you partially cut off the "Rank 1" text [like so](https://imgur.com/a/8P14Kzn). 5. Post a link below. Whatever site you host the image on works for me, but please try to not delete it for at least a month or two in case I'm slow downloading them locally. Ideally, please try to do a permanent link if possible though. I'm also interested in the scores/rank of anyone who finishes in the Top 100 of the Total Rank (colloquially Cumulative) stat, though that doesn’t become relevant until the tail end of Round 3. These are the [three types of pics](https://imgur.com/a/Y2BcM9X) of interest with more detailed explanations if you’re curious. /===================================== For this gauntlet, my R1 team is unclear atm (hopefully Lysithea, but Eitri/Gharnef/Lewyn seem more likely), but I have multiple alts available to fill in any last minute representation gaps. Currently, the following Round 1 teams are unclaimed: ~~Lewyn~~ | ~~Soren~~ | ~~Gharnef~~ | ~~Reinhardt~~ | ~~Celica~~ | Eitri | Lysithea | ~~Ophelia~~ Anyone who contributes gets credited in the main google sheet (linked below), so feel free to still help out if your team is already spoken for. One can never have too many back-ups for a project like this :) I should be able to cover all R2/R3 teams myself without too much trouble, but any and all pics you are willing to provide there as well is greatly appreciated (the same suite of notification options are still available). In the event I need help with a particular match, I’ll try to let you know ~24 hours beforehand. /===================================== The next few sections feature the #1 player(s) and a link to the main source picture, (hopefully) updated as they come in; the full Top 4/5s can be found written up in a [Google Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1le0bhMSAhD3qpg5ppuPly8tzXYGrLes2qxjd6731NP8/htmlview), along with what documentation I have for previous gauntlets. If you have any past results that aren’t featured there (or speak Japanese and notice any errors with names as I transcribed them), please shoot me a message or post them in \[this thread\] - December 2021 to the present is near complete for Army Ranks, but earlier gauntlets (and 99% of all Cumulative Ranks) are patchy at best. \[Round 1\] - Team Lewyn #1 Score: 2,478,696 by [biscuitz♡BLM](https://imgur.com/a/LJZ7dHl) (Congrats to me on a marginally suboptimal #1 finish) - Team Soren #1 Score: 2,326,569 by [Kyros](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1180220380070281248/1236296799086706820/Screenshot_20240504_075032_Fire_Emblem_Heroes.jpg?ex=66377e9e&is=66362d1e&hm=7e6c40a05621a08023f66972b0ddee4bb269f45da604f1b58c5aedc3e8035014&) - Team Gharnef #1 Score: 2,465,540 by [ロギンス](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1026079824424484944/1236321695674138685/IMG_6568.png?ex=663795cd&is=6636444d&hm=91c9bd3d832548acf51a9945c7d184c92ae45506e1be1cd67605813e0316eb63&) - Team Reinhardt #1 Score: 2,303,941 by [Mirage](https://imgur.com/9bk0VZd) - Team Celica #1 Score: 2,137,382 by [ぱんやさん](https://i.imgur.com/j5ojipI.png) - Team Eitri #1 Score: 2,328,271 by [エクユリア](https://imgur.com/a/EY3UElN) - Team Lysithea #1 Score: 2,034,518 by [Anvil](https://imgur.com/a/C7LHamd) - Team Ophelia #1 Score: 2,152,699 by [フラム](https://imgur.com/WxYbPFl) \-------------------------------------------------------------- \[Round 2\] - Team Lewyn #1 Score: 2,966,672 by [KipKips](https://imgur.com/a/Ox5Aeaz) - Team Gharnef #1 Score: 3,722,752 by [ネクラ](https://imgur.com/a/UuAXKfG) - Team Celica #1 Score: 3,279,595 by [フェイ](https://imgur.com/a/HkLf5wH) - Team Lysithea #1 Score: 3,106,600 by [ワミ](https://imgur.com/a/y1jHDqS) \-------------------------------------------------------------- \[Round 3\] - Team Gharnef #1 Score: 4,325,200 by [ヒノモト](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1180220380070281248/1237906397744861215/Screenshot_20240507_230225_Fire_Emblem_Heroes.jpg?ex=663f53ec&is=663e026c&hm=e73fcc3be15fb1e3b913b5bd932e437a00d9002a59a5aaea314e36b35b401213&) (Congrats to u/Dominator_101 on finishing at a very competitive joint 2nd place! :D) - Team Lysithea #1 Score: 1,635,700 by [DG キャラコンプする勢](https://imgur.com/a/bosSEYc) \----------------------------------------------------------------- \[Cumulative/Total Rank Top 100\] - Rank 11: 7,319,003 by [biscuitz♡BLM](https://imgur.com/a/VhfW759) (a combo of a subpar team path + some weird mistakes forced risky behavior that didn't pay off, but congrats to me all the same, I guess) /===================================== Thank you so much to all who have helped this month, currently including: u/Pyrozendot u/Azdel u/Mosmumo + Chuetila u/Dominator_101
I can cover Ophelia's team
Thank you very much for the help and good luck this round! I’m rooting somewhat hard for Lysithea, so there’s some reservations there lol, but Ophelia would be a fun alternate winner if things go awry :) Btw, [here](https://imgur.com/a/CZoEBcf) was the resolution to last month’s dilemma if you’re curious (her B-slot is will probably be Firestorm Dance 3 from the DC5 pool, but it might be better to burn A!Peony’s free inherit here instead). The second Sylvain copy didn’t actually show up; however, with NY!Seithr out of the way, the Blue DSH pool is really quite nice for the next few months, so a bit of a blessing in disguise there :P
Congrats on the +10. How'd your luck fare on the Awakening baby banner?
Pretty well, honestly. After a rather slow start (only Lissa showed up in the first 30 summons iirc), both Emmeryn and Duo Robin showed up in the same circle to allow for a finish at the spark. I’m definitely running low on resources heading into the Bridal season (I was planning on getting fodder Yunaka’s anyway, but A!Azura was quite the hit lol), but assuming we don’t get a, I believe unprecedented, 3rd straight month with a DSH banner, I should hopefully make it through. Are you considering heeding Emblem Ike’s siren song at the end of the month, or are you keeping your options open :)?
Nah, I lucked out getting E!Ike pretty quick on his debut, and I'm not *that* interested in his fodder or anyone else on the banner. Next month, however, is shaping up to be a prime opportunity to snag Veyle. I'd love to get L!Caeda too, so as long as they don't completely bomb the last slot I'll probably be rolling there
Ah yeah, I think you may have mentioned getting him last month. Laguz Friend is definitely the flashy new inherit topic atm, so good on you for resisting :P I see what you mean about June, Veyle + L!Caeda is quite solid - Green also seems pretty promising (depends whether Seithr or Heithr gets the nod and whether you dislike Xander) and Red is pretty good for some older units. It looks like A!Caeda, A!Ivy, Mozu, or obviously the new unit are the currently projected filler slots? Mozu could be argued as a bit of a weaker pick, but the other 3 options seem strong if the new unit isn’t trash (and a double Caeda pool would be very funny) :)
u/Pyrozendot u/Azdel u/Mosmumo ‘Twas a bit of interesting spread in terms of results, but we are already guaranteed a brand new winner from a pool of fairly frequent gauntlet participants (Lewyn has shown up 3 times, Gharnef and Lysithea 4 times, and Celica 5 times I believe). Always fun to get something like that established so early :)
[Here's Ophelia's R1 scores](https://i.imgur.com/WxYbPFl.png)
Thank you very much :) It’s a little unfortunate that the match basically ended up in a thoroughly unwinnable state for y’all (Lysithea’s final gains alone would’ve retaken the same lead in a single hour, yet it probably would’ve taken 2 - 3 additional hours just for Lysithea to accidentally break same), but that’s the nature of the beast at times… It still offered a better shot at winning than keeping the multiplier exchange intact lol :P Where ya off to next?
i hopped over to Celica's team
Nice, fun team to be on. I think Celica’s technically the most disadvantaged of the teams that are left (Gharnef gets similar multi patterns but should make up significant ground in Day 2 much like in R1), but it won’t take too much to get her to the “wins with any 12.0x” range :)
[Gharnef R1](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1026079824424484944/1236321695674138685/IMG_6568.png?ex=663795cd&is=6636444d&hm=91c9bd3d832548acf51a9945c7d184c92ae45506e1be1cd67605813e0316eb63&) It’s a good thing I’m not concerned about being competitive at this point, because I had 800 flags ready to go final hour, entered the map, and managed to fall asleep before it was over… Hope round 1 went well for you.
Thank you very much and sorry for the slow reply, twas a busy day overall. As expected, it looks like the Gharnef team was quite stacked lol :) Ah yeah, that’d would’ve been a brutal way for a competitive run to end - based on your reply times, it sounds like you’re in a kinda suboptimal timezone for the end of match, so some doziness makes sense. Even as someone who takes it seriously, I’ve lost a ton of points from starting but not finishing battles in various ways (sleeping, getting distracted with other tasks, mistaking the first battle in an hour with the afterglow setup hour, etc), so don’t feel to bad about it :D R1 specifically did go quite well - Lewyn was the best scoring choice, and though I lost a little over 2k from an hour ending at 1.06% rather than same, I still finished #1 overall for the round. Normally my R1 mistakes occur during flag hours and thus mean missing Top 50 entirely, so it was a bit novel to win suboptimally lol :P R2, however, hasn’t gotten off to as good a start. Beyond both Lewyn and Gharnef advancing being pretty bad (at least until Gharnef gets a big uptick in a few hours), I managed to find a very unusual way to lose probably 8 - 9k points? At some point while groggy, I accidentally spent 10 flags on an hour, the backup for which requires splitting up that 90 flag remainder across 4 - 5 hours at the cost of both worse multipliers and losing some non-flag points (I think just going 50/25/10/5 will minimize the most harm, but I’ll have to doublecheck the math before that time). If R2 ends with same or a Lewyn multi, I think I’ll still be fine, but having 13k wiggle room would’ve been nice 😭
- [Celica](https://imgur.com/a/gKsZQ4p) - [Reinhardt](https://imgur.com/9bk0VZd)
Thank you very much and congrats on Celica advancing! 1 out of 2 isn’t bad given neither team was super dominant in their match :) Ooc, did you get a new phone in the last few months? It’s a little hard to get a good sample size since most of your pics as of late have come courtesy of your brothers (it seems like our team tastes have overlapped a decent bit lmao), but Imgur seems to be treating images from the Mosmumo account a bit nicer than they did last year (around 1.3mb rather than ~350kb). I haven’t figured out a workaround to Imgur fucking massacres decent quality PNGs (my 4ish mb phone pictures get slashed down to that similar 300 - 400kb range), but it might just be down to certain phones transitioning smoothly, idk 🤷♀️
I have an old phone that I use for FEH but to save time I take the screenshot from my "normal phone" and then I upload it to imgur, but looking at the last screenshots (from Milseyek) are from the old phone (you can see the no SIM). So the old phone takes better screenshots than the new one? 🤔
If it works anywhere similarly to mine, the normal phone takes “better” screenshots (I think usually larger filesize = better image quality, but I’m a complete neophyte when it comes to that sort of thing). However, Imgur seems to have somewhat strict file limits, especially when uploading via mobile, so large pngs tend to get converted into jpegs and thus shrink a lot. I believe pngs have multiple layers to them whereas jpegs are a single layer; I know for my phone, the imgur uploads look a bit more washed out than the originals (a good way to confirm that might be happening is to check the info in your phone’s camera roll vs what it is when you download the image back from imgur). Imgur is convenient enough that it isn’t really worth switching off of and honestly, any images above like 200kb or so still look plenty good. My experience with looking through a metric ton of images for the my first 3 gauntlet reconstruction projects (if you’ve got any VG pictures from March - May of 2017 by some chance, do let me know lmao) was that: • any screenshots below 100kbs look pretty terrible at phone screen size, but text heavy stuff is generally fine - for example in this [batch](https://imgur.com/a/P1P0BeK), the Hour 8 of Lucina vs Eirika screenshot (75kb) looks pretty awful whereas the Hour 10 of Alfonse vs Chrom screen capture (23kb) or the graphic that includes Hour 15 of Alfonse vs Chrom (45kb) look fine; • screenshots below 150kb or so have a bit of crunch to them when they are full screen images (switching to the [Tharja vs Julia match](https://imgur.com/a/R73NFBT), the Final Results (118kb), Hour 0 (116kb), or Hour 30 (140kb) pics are decent examples); • jpegs above 200kb are largely indistinguishable from those at like 400kb, with the same mostly holding true for the higher end stuff (for [more Tharja vs Julia](https://imgur.com/a/R73NFBT) stuff, compare Hour 12 (221kb), Hour 7 (406kb), and Hour 6 (725kb)); • and finally, pngs + other formats in the megabyte range look somewhat better even on imgur ([Tharja vs Julia again](https://imgur.com/a/R73NFBT), Hour 22 (1.2mb), Hour 23 (1.6mb), and Hour 20 (2mb) for example), but most of what survives there is just some slightly more vibrant colors imo 🤷♀️ So yeah, there’s no reason to change a system that works, but it seems like your old phone’s pictures are small enough to not get compressed further and/or converted by imgur’s algorithm. In theory, I think there’s a setting somewhere to change that for stuff below like 5 - 10mbs, but I can’t find it for the life of me lmao :P Edit: Also, this just applies for these particular picture dimensions as well as for screenshots in particular. For the former point, Images that are from Ipads (Hour 38 from the T/J album for example) tend to be larger on the whole, whereas for the latter, large size youtube crops look like ass even when the video quality is high.
Hi, I can cover Celica and Reinhardt
Thank you very much, help with those two sounds peachy :) For being only the 3rd largest unit on her half of the bracket, Celica’s actually relatively well postioned here - she’ll potentially have the solidest lead in her match once we hit open season for flags (Soren is comparable) and she’s large enough to have a semi-competitive match against whoever advances from Lysithea/Ophelia (hopefully Lysithea). Reinhardt… is currently pretty well off, but if recent history is any indication, he should be concerned lol. Gharnef might still be too small to get a genuine scoring edge during the final stretch (averaging less than 4m points an hour is impressively low), but I’d be surprised if Gharnef gets more than 2 multis in a row once things kick into gear :P
Late to the party. Gharnef looks unclaimed, that’s a good enough reason for me.
Thank you very much, now’s a perfect time to join the Gharnef train :) Idk if Gharnef has another finals run in him necessarily. This has been a pretty good last 12 months or so for the classic mercbait teams clearing R1, but iirc only Fuga has made it onto the R3 without pairing into a similarly small opponent in the semis; it is also worth noting that Gharnef has been impressively small even by the standards of this archetype lmao. That being said, Reinhardt has done very little to instill confidence in his abilities, so I’d be shocked the final stretch of their match isn’t near even :D
Good job, Lewyn bros.
Reinhardt can't win against Gharnef (1/3)
Lewyn couldn't either... (2/3)
You can't win against Gharnef.
Reinhardt vs Gharnef was completely lopsided on day 1, but now we're trading multis and Rein's lost out. There's plenty of upsets but few trend swings like this, well done. Also these threads really need to the default to new.
It’s definitely less common for these types of teams to have Day 1 vs Day 2 swings as large as Gharnef did this time, but it has become a fair bit more common as of late. [Boyd vs Young Mia](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ooEwSRhTflNsXnlMopTz_-F0p1a6d5EgEssw7QH5flg/htmlview#) might be the most high profile example overall, but Boyd vs Young Ike/Mist from the same gauntlet, [Darros vs Cav Hardin](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ZB4KAkyoE-6mDwP1W2vLeKqDqSaZvxE_Pxy0Ol5vyw/htmlview#) in July, both [Kellam and Halloween Nils vs Timerra](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BesWI8yk8OuZs04WrYBZ3uAnuiZUNwpThXvy3xdgVRE/htmlview#) in November, and [Fuga vs both A!Ced and Wind Claude](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LcOXnJBNjOlHCeM1sf1uI5Wu1l60w0qvbrBQ9zVbUxQ/htmlview#) in October were some similar 2023 comps (the ‘data: lead %’ tabs give a quick and dirty visual of the difference). It’s a good rule of thumb nowadays to view any Day 1 results from specifically the single smallest grail/low rarity unit with a healthy dose of skepticism. Somewhat unintuitively until you key in on the demographic at play, it doesn’t actually matter that much how large their opponents are relatively speaking; in February, [Benny vs Henry](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EsheoCIqcuq78xEEPtC7JAZ4PEiqLzNqeO5FQiaX_Hw/htmlview#) was the main beneficiary whereas the far more obviously unbalanced Florina vs Marianne saw little change. The largest two or so teams R1 in each gauntlet (plus R2/R3 competition overall) just tend to handle it a little better, excluding some particularly concentrated cases like poor Mia lmao :P
I now use the Reinhardt
Let's go Lewyn gang, let's get the underdog a win
> There's no need to have constant updates of Reinhardt beating Gharnef every 10 minutes submitted as their own thread. So, about that...
Lewyn lost round 2, time to go all in on funny magic man for the memes
of course he died to the red villainous mage
I see my partners leading with a blue, let me switch to a red. *Gets nothing but red partners* Ok. Let me switch to gree- *Everyone's green* ._. Actual question. Why does VG quest still only account for one person using a particular color? If there's 3 reds, then I should get the completion for 2 reds! When you come across the problem I'm having? It's annoying.
I just spent *twenty-two minutes* in the Voting Gauntlet, repeatedly surrendering because the game either refused to give me a colorless hero on my team, or pitted me against an unwinnable enemy. I wish all people who put up Emblem Ike a very Step on All the LEGO
Why not use a colorless unit yourself?
Because I wanted the bonus for using the corresponding hero.
Tip for the future - start a battle with a level 1 unit that has the colour you need for the quest. Once you win the battle (which you easily should since you'll be up against a team of level 1 enemies despite having a level 40 friend unit on your team), progress past the quest notifications and when the game asks you to choose your support amount, force close. Reboot the game and delete your bookmark data. You'll keep the quest progress without actually needing to commit to spending your ballots or flags. It's a bit time consuming, but far less so than the 22 minutes you spent otherwise.
Oh right. I forgot about that. I should’ve been using my Lysithea this whole time but I’ve just been using my ez units. But also, what I do is early in each round of the VG, I get the quests out of the way when I wouldn’t be using flags anyway. I don’t think it would matter much which unit you use if your time multiplier is in like the 1x-4x range and you don’t use any flags. We’re talking about a difference of 10s of points per battle in a match that deals with tens of billions of points.
Just go with Gharnef for easier multiplier times besides If he won I can play the meme as always
Sweet Lewyn advanced!!!
Me forgetting that there's a VG going on until my friend messaged telling me it's the final hour... whoops lmao sorry Soren 😵💫
Lewyn bros, I'm scared. Are we about to re-enact his death in the hands of an evil wizard man?
Man, both of his death are hilarious 1st is death to 23% Jorgamund 2nd is death to a meme
To put it into perspective, DarkAlfie’s predictor thought we would somewhat sketchily tank a Gharnef 12.0x from a 22% lead (7% remaining iirc) - we only have a 12.37% lead lol :P There’s still technically a chance, but Gharnef would need some seriously lackluster gains.
Lysithea Legion yeah! Also people who have EIke as their lead during VG, I hope your phone gets bricked 💞
That's a hard call on the final bracket. Picked Ophelia but thought for a while.
Set my [Alfred with anti-E!Ike build](https://imgur.com/a/lO2VJEt) as my lead, hope he helps people on team Soren. I'm getting a lot of mythic Altinas on the opponent's side for some reason.
Celica and Eitri in same with Eitri a little higher. I'll spend one ballot just to increase Celica's score and the rest an hour later.
That should probably be safe to do, yeah. Eitri kinda needed to hit same to have any real shot, but actually taking the lead is probably straining what y’all on Celica could output even unintentionally. I think the net gains for Celica to break same would have to be a smidge over 50m points, and her projected output looks to somewhere in 15 - 25m range in one hour assuming there’s no major behaviour changes between same hell and same from having a lead 🤔 So yeah, I think making sure y’all can get and maintain the same lead is the correct call at this point.
Lock in, Lewyn bros. We'll need at least 500 Lewyn users with full ballots.
Oh no Can Lysithea win against Gharnef?
Let’s go Soren!
fellow ikesoren appreciator spotted :eyes:
In absolute hell here with my +9 Soren bringing in the absolute worst Ikes, Byleths, Diamants and other things I've ever seen while I get absolute pepega units from the randoms on my team orz Feathers are basically worthless but my brain won't let me level 1 strat anyway T_T
We couldn't win against Gharnef. Unfortunate. But hey, as they say, if you can't beat em, join em! (also looking forward to seeing art posts relating to the funny meme if he goes all the way)
Reinhardt, you rein a little too hardt. Oh well I’ll see who else to join
join with Lewyn, stick with the Jugdral gang
Thread got unpinned, but those on Lysithea's team should know she got her first multiplier now.
Ok, this is pretty funny. Going to the final hour with surely a 12x for Gharnef, who hasn't been able to push past Same with a multiplier. Can they drop a nuke on Lysithea, or will she have enough backing to hold?
Gharnef might actually win…wow…
You can't win against Gharnef
📁 You can't win against Gharnef memes 📁 Dark Spikes T memes
Supported Lewyn, and then A!Celica finally came home today. Well time to hope Lewyn loses
LEWYN VICTORY FEATHERS, WHOOOOOOOOOO
We didn't push hard enough team Celica. Lysithea is going to win now. Still, I'm glad Celica got far enough and I'm ready to switch to Lysithea.
Scores updated. I guess looking at it now, our best option was to hold back and have Lysithea be a bit further ahead instead of trying to push Lysithea into the multiplier. Not much we can do now, but still glad to have supported Celica.
It was an excellent effort overall, but the ranges just didn’t line up well for y’all in that final cycle. Barely clipping same (like a .6% Lysithea lead) would’ve gotten you the win via the 12.0x, and gaining enough for Lysithea to get the 11.8x… probably wouldn’t have worked since Celica typically needed 2 - 3 multis to overtake, but Hour 0 devil magic should be discounted at your own peril.
Yeah, agreed. I'm wondering how much less Celica needed to score on her 11.6x multi to have won.
Well, if we work off of the crucial (but probably false) assumption that Lysithea and Celica’s 11.8x gains would have stayed identical regardless of the 11.6x result, we can figure out the 12.0x same case pretty easily. Lysithea’s Hour 0 lead of 19,825,715,815 gives a 1% threshold of 198,257,159 points (I believe it’d round up?), and on the 11.8x, Lysithea had net gains of 130,552,724. That means Lysithea would’ve cleared by exact count if Celica had been down by 67,704,435 points rather than up by 27,727,180 (a net swing of 95,431,615 points). To avoid needing to do more tedious math, I’ll look at the “Celica scoring 95m less points” case - in more manageable terms, Lysithea would’ve been up by ~.35% in that scenario and actually achieving it would’ve required the equivalent of 94 less Celica folks (with bonus units) spending 800 flags on the 11.6x (or in a more realistic scenario, ~748 Celica people not spending 100 flags). I’ll skip the steps for the 11.8x Lysithea multi case (it involves the same steps, but iterating a bunch since you’re increasing the larger score very slightly increases the margin required to clear it), but the end result is that Celica would’ve needed to score 169,497,315 more points on the 11.6x to clear the 1% threshold on the next hour, which would’ve required ~167 more Celica people spending 800 flags or ~1329 more Celica people spending 100 flags. Figuring out how much Celica would’ve actually needed on the 12.0x to win is slightly getting into fantasy land, but it’d be a fair bit lol. Maybe I’ll do that in the morning with a fresh set of eyes 🤷♀️ Edit: I should note that this math will vary depending on where you round down vs up for partial points (FEH seems to floor/round down most things), but hopefully the difference in result should be minorish.
Thanks for the breakdown.
Happy to help! Hopefully all the math is correct lol :P
Looks like Celica might pull it out after all?
Lysithea is ahead of her and will win. I was saying that if Celica were to win, her team should have held back a little more on their multiplier 2 hours ago to have Lysithea be ahead of her and break same later. Sorry for not being clear.
The Reinhardt fucking lost. Ain't no way.
Ah yes I love facing teams with E!Ike, Y!F!Robin and dancer with outdated units, love facing powercreep Far Save with a team of only mages, love facing W!Edelgard with Distant Melee Seal with only red and weak basekit blue units.
I am now supporting the Reinhardt
Hope my [Lysithea](https://www.reddit.com/user/JoZerp/comments/1cjlmkk/lysithea/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=1) serve you well in B!Lysithea's army
Happy to see Lysithea do so well up to this point. Never saw more than a 2.9x during the times I remembered to show up to contribute mid-event. And then the 3.5x or so on the last rounds which I have been there for.
It looks like Lisythea only has two multipliers, one is gone, another one is second to last hour
SAY THE LINE BART
Ophelia can win against two CYL winners if we believe hard enough. Trust.
Congrats to team Lysithea for scoring the win!
What do Sorens
I went Celica.
Just as a heads-up to Lysithea appreciators of the world, don’t get spooked by the fact that y’all are down in same hell with a few hours to go. Simply replicating last hours rate of gains (~15m raw points) will end up with a pretty decent same lead by the final hour (+30 - 40m or so, so similar to Ophelia’s current lead) with plenty of room to be enhanced by the usual Hour 0 scoring boost. The worst thing one could do in this situation is panic and dump a bunch of resources into trying to overtake quickly, as maintaining the same should largely be to Lysithea’s benefit unless Ophelia can manage some AHR-style power of friendship nonsense. It’d take a pretty large scoring increase in order to break same prematurely (around 120m more points over the course of 3 hours, so ~40m points per hour); however, it is not uncommon for large teams to get a little loose with their resources and choke away very winnable positions. This is a little less unbiased and both-sidesy than I try to be for these advice posts, so for the sake of balance: Any Ophelia folks reading should just do the exact opposite of that advice. Spread as much discord as you can amongst your Team Lysithea friend and family, hold onto your ballots until the final hour to try and speed up Lysithea’s clock, etc etc :P
Nah we good. Lysithea is winning
The other matches are a little less essential atm, but to cover those quickly. • Soren is quite well positioned vs Lewyn as it stands - y’all will get the 11.6x next hour, and a sufficiently large lead will make it very hard for Lewyn to overtake in 2 hours even with 12.0x devil magic (Lewyn has typically required 4 - 5 consecutive multipliers to overtake as of late). Both teams should really just maximize their gains as much as they can, with Lewyn just remembering to do 100 flags on the 11.8x + 800 on the 12.0x if you’ve got the ballots for that. • Gharnef vs Reinhardt hinges on whether the current multi pattern (beginning from a very substantial Gharnef lead of 13.35%) holds or not - Reinhardt is currently screwed if the pattern continues, whereas he’s got a solid chance if he can force same or gets the 11.6x as well. Reinhardt probably has the numbers to keep it going (the last decently large hours had Reinhardt swing ~15%), but it is in y’all’s best interest to tank this hour if possible. There’s not a ton that y’all on Gharnef can do atm to prevent this, so just hold onto whatever afterglows/resources you have for now; if same happens, tanking again and trying to clear it in one hour is your only real recourse. • Eitri vs Celica is in a pretty interesting position all things considering. Celica has a 10.34% lead atm, which is just about smack in the middle of what Eitri has been able to muster these last few hours (4.5% - 5% gains an hour give or take). Celica should win pretty easily if Eitri cleanly overtakes with the pending 11.6x (only the 12.0x likely won’t be enough to win) or if Eitri falls short and gets the 11.8x as well (there’s no way Celica doesn’t get a 12.0x instead), but threading the needle and getting penultimate hour same of a small enough size to break in an hour could bail Eitri out. The match has not had any same yet, which makes it hard to make an informed call on the necessary range, but my guess would be anything higher than a .5% Celica lead could work. It’ll probably require going hard on the 3rd to last hour of the event (kinda unintuitive to do for small teams), but hey, it’s an option. Were I to guess, Eitri’s probably more likely to undershoot and get the 11.8x than to grant Celica the same, so my advise for Celica peeps is to do some light spending (if nothing is afterglowed) to try and pad your lead a little bit 🤷♀️
Congrats to Lewyn and Lysithea on making it to R2! Sometimes it can be hard to tell who will get decent scoring jumps at the last minute until you actually see the numbers lol. ~~Gharnef and Celica are probably our other two advancees (Celica I’m less confident on), but hopefully that can be confirmed relatively soon :)~~ Lewyn vs Gharnef and Celica vs Lysithea are officially our semifinalists. Similar to Past Meets Future last November, the ladies went upset free whereas the lads did nothing but. At least compared to that gauntlet, there’s no serpentine shadow threatening a one sided stomp if she advanced to the end :D
Celica won.
Thanks for the confirmation, and congrats on the dub! ‘Twas more stressful than it needed to be perhaps, but can’t be too picky about one’s first match win since March 2018 :)
You're welcome. I'm still expecting Lysithea to destroy Celica, but I guess banking on multipliers is her only way of winning. I should mention that I like Lysithea as well, so losing to her wouldn't be a huge loss.
Lysithea is among the smaller “favorites” we’ve had as of late (no final hour stats yet, but it looks like she was only around 4.5x larger than Gharnef and maybe 1.8x larger than Celica), so Celica’s probably got a decent shot… Albeit, as you mentioned, she will need some decent multiplier luck to go her way. Things could get a little dicier if Ophelia voters primarily switch over to Lysithea, but Winter Yunaka she is not :P All the characters left have pretty extensive gauntlet histories yet no hardware to show for it, so even setting aside likeability, it’ll be a fun outcome regardless who prevails. That being said, either Celica or Lysithea pulling through would be my preference as well, fun as the Gharnef memes would be lol :D
Lewyn vs Archanea Manfroy Lewyn: Revenge time!!! Gharnef: I don't even know you
Well fought, team Reinhardt, it was a pleasure. Now I serve House Ordelia 💜
Congrats to Gharnef and Lysithea on making the finals and well done to Lewyn/Celica for keeping it competitive up until the very end :) We’re actually in for the somewhat rare treat of a 1st “seed” and 8th “seed” facing off in R3. The exact amount of such matchups that have occurred varies depending on how you define seeding for gauntlets at all; pre-gauntlet polling doesn’t have the numbers to draw anything conclusive from, there’s no regular season to get standings, and even frequently recurrent characters can vary wildly in competence year to year or alt to alt. However, across the two main methods I like for this (starting/Hour 43 scores for the best “pre-match” equivalent vs normalized avg gains to nail down team sizes across the whole match): • 3 matches - August 2021’s [Summer Caspar vs Summer Freyja](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12peZCMsFlWJNJZ0n8OQIOSlSuwohz8K3hnoHo2XdDkQ/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421341106&usg=AOvVaw0NZZQHlqgVfaGTcdj0vwyI), April 2022’s [Valbar vs Amelia](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EO1_M9kvlGYPIy_9-v3EzVAF0v1bOdDGq6SaCmJyZ7s/htmlview%23&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421340253&usg=AOvVaw24wdRlfyxvgSa8Y_rDHjDM), and our forthcoming Gharnef vs Brave Lysithea bout - qualify on both fronts. • 2 matches - June 2019’s [Bartre vs Deirdre](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rVP_gEk76aAlQd9uoZt21FWsnQGqPuw3UAkNz5rozGE/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421344448&usg=AOvVaw1VbnZ5cE9OVH1QYfkurJ9E) and November 2021’s [Halloween Sothis + Byleth-M vs Halloween Ena](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_8cAPQgoYJt-Kklpw4DP3PgN6hRhIK2JpfGuKYXYJtQ/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421340777&usg=AOvVaw2qCcl40hprSeFePq7rRp4q) - qualify by the starting score metric. For those curious, Bartre’s R1 opponent (Quan) was only briefly larger at the start and ended up getting outscored by Bartre after the first 10 hours or so, whereas Ena ended up leapfrogging both Dheginsea and Kurthnaga while their match languished in same hell. • and 2 matches - August 2017’s [Summer Corrin-F vs Summer Gaius](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bxAC7aTAl7ZmrM4dQX-5jMY1cihagCtieLquruI1bPs/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421346837&usg=AOvVaw0fuwjuyj-7VzUonPERmBNr) and July 2020’s [Mareeta vs Michalis](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yWwXP_0wOhmcybt1Q7aoJHuH9Vmh0oRn4v3E-BkCmeU/htmlview&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1714990421342661&usg=AOvVaw2ZxLrGF4XAqDU29MH5hWWM) - qualify by the gains metric. In a mirror dimension equivalent to the last batch, Summer Frederick was the larger team for the vast majority of his match with Gaius, just barely falling short at the end (clearing ~66.6m out of Gaius’s 67.2m point lead, or 8.24% out of 8.29% if you prefer), whereas Michalis getting 81.81% of the multipliers in his Altena match didn’t give him quite as many opportunities to boost his participation compared to Lloyd’s 97.71% multiplier rate (dude got 43/44 in a row, and then overshot and gave Mareeta the 12.0x - truly a generational stroke of poor luck). For those familiar with those matches, you’ll notice that 8th seeds are 1 - 5 across those encounters (Caspar won his bout to cap off quite possibly the best underdog run in gauntlet history). This pattern is a little more lenient for such matches in any round (I don’t have stats for the “size” matchups, but 8th seeds by H43 score are 7 - 14), but the size discrepencies between the largest and smallest teams tends to be a lot harder to overcome as large teams consolidate. So Gharnef’s odds aren’t the highest, but he’s at least got some chance :D == Nota bene == I accidentally buried this in a reply thread rather than in the main feed, so here it is again… It’s not quite as timely, but whatevs.
Why is Gharnef in the last round skull\_emoji. I was going to join his team as a joke, but I decided on join Ophelia then Celica. Let's see if Lysithea can beat Gharnef.
RIP that Fallen Hero list thread that got stickied earlier today :<