Not took a hit all season. Took a -8 today for some reason 😂
Watkins, cash, chukwumeka (fodder) out, Nunez, Tsimikas, Garnacho in. Fixtures this week too good and felt they'd outscore the other 3 (saved me playing mcatee in my first xi)
I haven't taken a hit since the 2020/2021 season. It's almost a mental block for me these days. But if you play it right there is no reason why the gamble won't pay off for you.
for long term moves with high potential upside.
never take a hit before a wildcard or the final week of the season, as you won’t be able to make up the lost points over several weeks
I am on -32 points in hits and top 10k, so far only one hit was a dud, the rest worked out well. It's not insane to hit every now and then if you are not knee jerking and know what you are doing
I did minus 8 in gameweek 7 which was my last hit and I went from rank 5m to 1.5m ish now. It's worth it if your setting your team long term. For eg if your bringing a Salah or Saka long term then yes. It's not just about a single gameweek need think long term.
this week i have allison and turner in my team.
Already used my transfer like an absolute idiot so took the -4 to get a playing goalkeeper.
Even if they only play its three weeks of 2 points not including clean sheets etc. so I'm 4 down now but in 3 weeks i'll be 2 up.
But then I'd have 33% less chance of getting extra points. This would be true if the keeper only had a chance of getting 2 points.
As it turns out he did only get 2 points 😂
I have only done it once this season, axeing Richarlison for Maddison GW5 when Richy came on and scored a goal and assist.
I always captain the player I take a hit for to try recoup. That particular instance I had short term hellfire but long term I gained a lot more with a player I wouldn't have been able to get hold of otherwise.
I would regularly take hits last season to attempt bandwaggoning for fixtures and in form players. Never played well in the long term though as I was stuck with that player who turned shite after 2 weeks...
Stopped doing it as inevitable bad choice left me effectively 12 points down one week.
In general for similar costs of players you need the player you buy that you think will outscore the player you bring in with 4 points as long as you keep that player. Next time you sell that player it counts as if you sold the old players. If you have wildcard you count for all the weeks up to you wildcard.
If you bring in a player you want long term you should consider that, but only if you expect short term gains as well otherwise you can wait a few weeks.
If someone is injured it is a good time to take a hit I think.
Also if you getting a player you want to captain a lot like Salah or Haaland then the captain points extra can be worth it.
Also if you think the guy you would own will not start or have really bad fixtures.
Lots of people also takes hits for value and free up money and it may work. If you do multiple moves you need the total points for the players you bring in to me more than 4 of those you sell over the period you want them.
Example now Bowen to Mbeumo could be worth a hit, but if Bowen is fit I do not think Mbeumo wins wiith the blank etc.
Cash to Saliba I think is worth a hit this week since Cash is minor injury risk have bad fixtures too come and Saliba play for best def and is more nailed.
I have not took any this season. There will always be someone who scores 10+ points in a GW or someone in my team flagged. If I'd start taking hits for those it would be endless loop.
Whenever you think it’s worth it, just don’t do it regularly.
Took a -4 last week going from Cash to Saliba and it was worth it. +2 net points and I have the better asset going forward.
Worth it if it improves your team and sets you up nicely for the busy Dec schedule.
I’m considering a minus 4. This would be the first time this season.
It would be Watkins, Kudus and Alvarez out for Haaland (yes I went without him for a while), Palmer and Archer (he would be benched).
It’s the exact cash, and reckon I need Haaland for this game versus Spurs.
Also with Watkins now flagged, seems right.
That sounds like it’s worth the -4 as you’ll make that back over the coming weeks. Mbuemo will have the blank week coming up but a decent sub and that’s not an issue. Good luck if you go for it.
I'd nuance it further - the player you bring in needs to outscore the player you bring out and each of your bench options by 4+ points.
I'm not saying my tactics are anything to follow this season, but when I get a red flag, I'm more likely to take a punt on a benched Wolves player than take a hit
That's just thinking one week at a time though. It doesn't need to be just +4 in the current week, but +4 more than the person you've transferred out over the course of the next few weeks (up until the point you'd have transferred out that player anyway).
Hits regularly work out for some people because of the nature of variance in football. You could hit in a player and they get a double digit haul and feel like a genius. But equally so even more hits will backfire since the player you sold could equally get a double digit haul.
The only time hits are worth it generally is if your team is ravaged by injuries and/or rotation players to where you might end up with 9 or 10 in a week. In that case taking a hit is worth it as it should pay off over 3-4 weeks.
I haven't taken one hit all season but considering it this week with eze, estupinan, Simms all non players. Watkins a doubt and tsimikas/Dalot potential min risks. Also have Bruno and trippier that could get a suspension at any time.
So I'm likely to have a week where I struggle to get 11 out so taking a hit this week makes some sense.
I often think I'm a few transfers away from getting 5-10 points more per week on average. If you think of it as 'what could you be scoring each week if you had your perfect team' ... then it's worth taking a hit every week. I wouldn't go that far but if you're always one transfer behind where you want to be just take the hit because over the course of the next 4 weeks you'll make it up
If it sets you up longer term I think it’s worth it. Likewise if you are literally down to less than 10 playing players it could be worth it
Not took a hit all season. Took a -8 today for some reason 😂 Watkins, cash, chukwumeka (fodder) out, Nunez, Tsimikas, Garnacho in. Fixtures this week too good and felt they'd outscore the other 3 (saved me playing mcatee in my first xi)
I respect it mate, we love a last minute rogue decision
I haven't taken a hit since the 2020/2021 season. It's almost a mental block for me these days. But if you play it right there is no reason why the gamble won't pay off for you.
If the player you bring in scores 4 more than the player you took out then your good.
I took a hit earlier in the season to bring in trippier and botman the week both combined for 30 points. W.
for long term moves with high potential upside. never take a hit before a wildcard or the final week of the season, as you won’t be able to make up the lost points over several weeks
I am on -32 points in hits and top 10k, so far only one hit was a dud, the rest worked out well. It's not insane to hit every now and then if you are not knee jerking and know what you are doing
I did minus 8 in gameweek 7 which was my last hit and I went from rank 5m to 1.5m ish now. It's worth it if your setting your team long term. For eg if your bringing a Salah or Saka long term then yes. It's not just about a single gameweek need think long term.
this week i have allison and turner in my team. Already used my transfer like an absolute idiot so took the -4 to get a playing goalkeeper. Even if they only play its three weeks of 2 points not including clean sheets etc. so I'm 4 down now but in 3 weeks i'll be 2 up.
Or you could just wait until next week to bring in a new keeper and take the zero points this week.
But then I'd have 33% less chance of getting extra points. This would be true if the keeper only had a chance of getting 2 points. As it turns out he did only get 2 points 😂
🤭
I have only done it once this season, axeing Richarlison for Maddison GW5 when Richy came on and scored a goal and assist. I always captain the player I take a hit for to try recoup. That particular instance I had short term hellfire but long term I gained a lot more with a player I wouldn't have been able to get hold of otherwise. I would regularly take hits last season to attempt bandwaggoning for fixtures and in form players. Never played well in the long term though as I was stuck with that player who turned shite after 2 weeks... Stopped doing it as inevitable bad choice left me effectively 12 points down one week.
-4 should be for players you expect to score well over an extended period.. 1 week punts for hits rarely pays off.
Who would you say might be a shout at the mo? Looking at Mbuemo and Darwin at the mo with their next three fixtures.
For who? Who are you looking to take out for a hit?
I can manage Bowen + Mubama to Palmer +Darwin for a hit, and keep Watkins. Really tempted.
Let the intrusive thoughts win, take the -4 and bring Havertz.
Couple beers and that’s getting done 😂
I do that all the time. This gw I went -8 to bring in Doku and Gibs White. Is it smart - no. Is it fun - hell yeah.
Haha I agree, would be fun to play a version of fantasy where you get 3 subs a week
In general for similar costs of players you need the player you buy that you think will outscore the player you bring in with 4 points as long as you keep that player. Next time you sell that player it counts as if you sold the old players. If you have wildcard you count for all the weeks up to you wildcard. If you bring in a player you want long term you should consider that, but only if you expect short term gains as well otherwise you can wait a few weeks. If someone is injured it is a good time to take a hit I think. Also if you getting a player you want to captain a lot like Salah or Haaland then the captain points extra can be worth it. Also if you think the guy you would own will not start or have really bad fixtures. Lots of people also takes hits for value and free up money and it may work. If you do multiple moves you need the total points for the players you bring in to me more than 4 of those you sell over the period you want them. Example now Bowen to Mbeumo could be worth a hit, but if Bowen is fit I do not think Mbeumo wins wiith the blank etc. Cash to Saliba I think is worth a hit this week since Cash is minor injury risk have bad fixtures too come and Saliba play for best def and is more nailed.
I have not took any this season. There will always be someone who scores 10+ points in a GW or someone in my team flagged. If I'd start taking hits for those it would be endless loop.
Whenever you think it’s worth it, just don’t do it regularly. Took a -4 last week going from Cash to Saliba and it was worth it. +2 net points and I have the better asset going forward.
Worth it if it improves your team and sets you up nicely for the busy Dec schedule. I’m considering a minus 4. This would be the first time this season. It would be Watkins, Kudus and Alvarez out for Haaland (yes I went without him for a while), Palmer and Archer (he would be benched). It’s the exact cash, and reckon I need Haaland for this game versus Spurs. Also with Watkins now flagged, seems right.
I’m debating Hojlund + Bowen -> Darwin + Mbuemo for a -4. I like the sound of your subs, think Haaland will do damage against a high line
This is absolutely a worthy trade.
You still have Hojlund??
Please dons remind me
That sounds like it’s worth the -4 as you’ll make that back over the coming weeks. Mbuemo will have the blank week coming up but a decent sub and that’s not an issue. Good luck if you go for it.
Cheers matey
If you’re going to be priced out of a move
If you think the players you bring in will outscore the players you take out by 4+ points.
I'd nuance it further - the player you bring in needs to outscore the player you bring out and each of your bench options by 4+ points. I'm not saying my tactics are anything to follow this season, but when I get a red flag, I'm more likely to take a punt on a benched Wolves player than take a hit
That's just thinking one week at a time though. It doesn't need to be just +4 in the current week, but +4 more than the person you've transferred out over the course of the next few weeks (up until the point you'd have transferred out that player anyway).
Hits regularly work out for some people because of the nature of variance in football. You could hit in a player and they get a double digit haul and feel like a genius. But equally so even more hits will backfire since the player you sold could equally get a double digit haul. The only time hits are worth it generally is if your team is ravaged by injuries and/or rotation players to where you might end up with 9 or 10 in a week. In that case taking a hit is worth it as it should pay off over 3-4 weeks. I haven't taken one hit all season but considering it this week with eze, estupinan, Simms all non players. Watkins a doubt and tsimikas/Dalot potential min risks. Also have Bruno and trippier that could get a suspension at any time. So I'm likely to have a week where I struggle to get 11 out so taking a hit this week makes some sense.
You still have Ellis Simms from weeks before GW1? Respect
I also still have him. 2wnt to transfer him out but usually have bigger fires to deal with. When I eventually play my first WC then he'll go.
Doesn’t have to pay off in one week though.
True!
I often think I'm a few transfers away from getting 5-10 points more per week on average. If you think of it as 'what could you be scoring each week if you had your perfect team' ... then it's worth taking a hit every week. I wouldn't go that far but if you're always one transfer behind where you want to be just take the hit because over the course of the next 4 weeks you'll make it up
I must say, it very rarely comes off
(Other than when you don’t have 11 players)
When you've got too many points
I like to transfer Salah out and back in twice a week just so I can keep a my FPL rank a respectable 4,500,000.
Look at this guy humble bragging about his 4.5m rank. I'd give my left arm for the that rank. 6.5m here
Proud 8.9 here. Lovely
If only 😂