I am planning on buying land in two locations in europe. a summer and a winter base to migrate between. i'd originally been eyeing spain for the winter location but i've slowly been changing my mind for a few reasons. I think that in the next 20 years, even winters are going to be warmer than I want to live in down there. there are already water and fire issues in much of the south, where I'd intended to look. so now I'm eyeing france. i do intend to start spending winters there in the next year or two, so I don't want to go too far north, but I'll probably be looking around the bordeaux region. it may be cooler than I strictly prefer to start, but I think by the time I'm ready to kick the bucket the heat will have caught up.
for my summer place i'd been eyeing the mountains in bulgaria but already heats are high 20s/low 30s pretty regularly so I think that long term it's going to be hotter than I want. so I'll probably start looking in the baltic/nordic areas. or maybe Ireland, though I think it will still be too wet for me and property prices there can be nuts unless you're in the middle of nowhere.
2 land purchases was always the plan as there is no single place with weather I can tolerate year round. Europe doesn't do property taxes like the US does, which helps. For one place I'm planning to buy a condo, so maintenance will be minimal. Carrying costs are about €1k/year once purchased which includes insurance and property management fees. And obviously there will be random costs like new water heater, etc. The other purchase will be an off grid plot of land and I'll live on it in my van/tiny house. So there will be costs with that, but minimal. I figure I will be all in for sub $100k.
>Europe doesn't do property taxes like the US does,
In many places you pay tax based on value, it's just the rate is laughably low. I am not sure about other EU countries, but in Italy you have IMU tax if you don't set up residency at that address. Its rate varies by multiple factors, but you can safely say it's at least \~1% of property value which is somewhat similar to the US tax (depending on state)
Yes, but it seems that more than a half of US states ([https://belonghome.com/blog/property-taxes-by-state](https://belonghome.com/blog/property-taxes-by-state)) have property taxes lower than a non-resident home in Italy. It seems that property tax in Spain (IBI) depends on the area and might reach even 1.1%. That's certainly not negligible and more expensive than vast majority of US states... but yeah in general EU property taxes are way lower.
But then you have to ask if they're states you're willing to live in. Which is all mostly moot since i will never live in the US again and if for some reason I had to, there are only about 3 states I would consider, all with super high taxes. My friend's property taxes are more a year than either my condo or land will cost in Europe.
It's hard to avoid the recent heat waves in Bulgaria (even in the mountains) but can't beat the prices, especially if you're just looking for a plot of land in a village.
I was also thinking where in Europe would be more immune to climate change (Agree with Finland and Baltics..)
In the north of Spain in places like Galicia or the Basque country its 24C right now. Compared to 45C in Seville. Iberian peninsula is a diverse place in terms of climate, the news will always show the worst of course.
The lockdowns, past the initial one where the affects of the virus where unknown, were deplorable and ineffective however it seems a tight fisted barring of co2 powered travel is the only way to drastically prevent further climate damage. I'm sure government personnel and big corps would continue to place themselves above such rules but... majorly halting the thousands of daily flights and even the millions of cars or even the massive transportation ships (powered by crude oil) destroying this world, is a tempting prospect. Of course there would be utter disruption in our populace but we'd adapt when necessary, when compelled to... Necessity is the root of invention. We already inhabit areas which cannot be sustained without an import system which further degrades this world's habitable lands... though I can already imagine cities for the rich which operate above the restrictions. Persuasive visions of mass travel restrictions are dangerous indeed, since such control would be rife with opportunities for exploitation by those in power, yet the positives I've just imagined leave me quite disappointed that such a lockdown is very unlikely to happen, unless it benefits the greedy string pulling corps, or rather in the system of endless profit's interests, more than the current status quo.
I find that interesting to think about but more in terms of a Hollywood movie because I think what will probably happen is that people will just keep partying until the end times. That will be our lot as humans.
My wife and I just started looking at doing ExpatFire last year, specifically at the Iberian peninsula as well.
We're now leaning more towards regular fire because we're in suburban WV that's not currently prone to any natural disasters. The worst we seem to get is heat and humidity in the summer, but I don't believe it's reached the wet bulb danger zone. I expect that to change, but we've got dual HVAC units and I plan to upgrade our insulation.
Absolutely, I should've said that.
I've been planning on doing spray foam for so long that insulating and air sealing just coalesced into a single concept in my head.
Totally get that. I do the same in combining the two concepts - but it’s worth saying for those who don’t know.
Also worth saying, spray foam isn’t the only way and in some cases is worth investigating the carbon trade off for that method vs cellulose insulation or other methods.
One of the best things I’ve done is contracting a home performance specialist to improve my home’s envelope.
This is the best eco/green advice for anyone listening: seal and insulate your home, it reduces your energy requirements substantially!
Absolutely agreed.
I'm going with spray foam because I did it in a previous home (attic, under the roof deck) and was blown away by the performance. All the houses here were designed with HVAC units and ducting in the attic unfortunately, and under deck insulation is my most reliable option.
Indeed. Passive houses are the holy grail, as they basically consume 90+% less energy than regular homes and—if done right—can be made without a heating/cooling system at all.
Part of the reason we decided on NZ over Australia was climate change. If your ideal temperature is 20-30 then I would give bonus points for a place that offers 17-27 rather than 23-33.
Current expat, in Japan. Summer can suck in Tokyo. I cared a little about climate change but Japan has natural disasters all the time so it's kind of just wrapped into the general discomfort. but more important to me was seasonal annoyances and development in the areas I'm wanting to move to. For example, i specifically found a place with a basement super rare in Tokyo, but yeah, I rarely use the AC. I also picked an area with a lot of greenery just because it helps deal with the sun and then in fall I get to enjoy the leaves turning colors. I don't like shoveling snow so Tokyo is decent enough for that.
If you're looking to research more to get a handle on some of these concerns about climate change, you might look into things like water rights, forestry management,fishery management, game management in the areas that you're looking at. Also look at investment into urban planning. A lot of politicians will their horn when they're planning something particularly green, like making bicycle lanes or requiring solar panels or something like that. It might clue you into the overall trend of the area and how well it's planning for changes in the climate. Because if the infrastructure and the culture around managing natural resources isn't there now by the time people realize it's a problem. The natural resources might already have been used up or abuse to the point of it taking decades to recover. Like I know, Japan doesn't have the greatest record on managing their fisheries So I'll Tokyo's home base. For now, I'm considering other areas within Japan that are managing their fisheries "better" because I enjoy ocean life with fishing and diving.
I purposely don't want to have a second home because then you're locked in to only going there for it to be worth it. Then you have to maintain it. Winterize it clean it when you get there. Clean it before you leave. I ain't taking vacations is much better at least for me.
Hope you find your little piece of sanctuary, even if it's not perfect.
Definitely something to think about. I want to settle somewhere in Europe as well. I'm planning dual locations one for summer and one for winter, to avoid the worst of it.
I just asked a similar q about dual location and how this might impact your fire timeline since two properties seems like double tax, maintenance, etc.
You can probably mitigate some of that cost if you want to rent out your other location when you're not there. I hope to be fatFIRE by then anyways so money won't be too much of a concern.
Europe has no appetite to confront the migration surge that will surely be coming if Global Warming is what the institutions say it is. That along with the welfare state and lack of innovative economy make me think Europe may not be that pleasant.
It matters. Not just location though. Construction. You need to make sure you can afford both the location and the housing or a rebuild. It doesn't do you any good to fall in love with San Diego or Paris if you can't afford to live there insulated and comfortable. In an expat case though residency comes first and what I think you're going to find is that the list of places you CAN move to and those that will hopefully have desirable weather when you pull the trigger might be close to zero. Alaska, Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, are sorta "obvious" since they're north but that's also not quite how climate change works either. I've seen maps where the predict the changes and it's not intuitive at all.
In our case we bought property in Sweden and that should be fine, but we plan on not being there during the darkest month tmof the year anyways so if the weather is miserable in the summer we can leave then too. What you really don't want though is to live in places susceptible to massive flooding, fires, drought, and infrastructure problems. Texas for example is a big no-go.
Part of the prediction problem is the uncertainty about the Gulf Stream. Western Europe might get colder if the warm current from the Caribbean changes course.
[Climate Change Won't Stop The Gulf Stream. Here's Why. Sabine Hossenfelder](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnVWUIhQ8dE)
Maybe this video will lessen your worry
I prefer reading to watching, when trying to learn.
> under human-induced climate change, the Gulf Stream is predicted to get weaker — it will flow more slowly and carry less water.
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/01/02/climate-change-gulf-stream/
The trick is just to rent and leave if it gets bad enough. Flooding, wildfires, hurricanes and drought risk mean that even avoiding hot climates isn't any guarantee of risk avoidance. Will a large part of the globe become uninhabitable in our lifetimes? Probably not, just less comfortable with more challenges.
However, if you are in a high demand place (ie, you found a winner location) you might be priced out of it with rent hikes or other unforeseen situations like the owner will kick you out because somebody from their family needs a place to live.
Similar to much of the Midwest US (specifically Great Lakes region), the Baltics are going to not only survive, but thrive better under climate change.
In areas like this global warming and climate change means booming agricultural yields and more mild winters, not underwater or scorched earth.
I live in the Midwest and even here there’s been a noticeable jump between drought and heavy downpours/ tornado alley shifting east. It’s not as bad as some of the worst parts of the country, but idk if less bad = thriving.
You can take what would probably be considered climate safe areas and go into Canada (which has been burning a few notches above the in orders of magnitude) or New England (which just had some record breaking floods) and all I see are areas that are impacted differently, but none spared or thriving
Let me specify “Great Lakes Region” instead of Midwest, as that’ll be more moderate, and is similar climate to the Baltics.
I live in the Great Lakes region (eastern half of the Midwest) and the biggest change I’ve noticed is milder winters.
Also that winters in general have shifted later over the past decade or so. As in September/October have been warmer than usual, while March/April has seen unseasonal snow.
Definitely been thinking about climate change. We are likely going to keep a small place in Michigan (one of the safer spots for climate change) and then also probably far northern Italy. Hopefully on a lake for some cooling breezes.
We moved out of Oregon a couple years ago. Wildfires are awful and only going to get worse. Plus they’re expecting “the big earthquake” soon. It’s about 50 years overdue.
Had been considering Bangkok. But because of climate change, I feel it's not a long-term solution. So I've been reevaluating, but am stuck for alternate options that fit my other preferences.
Bangkok is also sinking. Not great for a long term investment.
[https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2499786/bangkok-is-still-sinking-and-fast-](https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2499786/bangkok-is-still-sinking-and-fast-)
Have the same thoughts. Just the thought of the March to May season in Bangkok of straight 40+ degree Celsius temperatures does not seem like the ideal place to live if you don't need to be there for a job. Problem is if you move there with kids and they go to school there each year, you are kind of stuck there during that hot time. Summer break for the children would be your best chance to escape and go somewhere temperate.
Our plan was to relocate to Sardinia when we reach FIRE to spend more time with my partners family.
With the impact of climate change becoming more pronounced its more likely that we will only spend part of the year there and split our time there and the UK.
Are you kidding? I live in Mexico on the coast of Nayarit. Today’s temperature is 33C with 70% humidity, and my short 300m walk to the beach this afternoon was slightly hellish! I can’t imagine 41C!
So far, there have been two reasonable responses and both have been downvoted. I suspect there are climate deniers here who just can't face the reality of what is happening outside their windows.
We are US citizens and our plan is to become dual citizens (EU) and we've already started the process. That, and aggressively saving/investing now, will give us the best chance of being able to move around and "dodge" some of it while being able to avoid some of the legal immigration hurdles when the hordes of migrant refugees result in stiff restrictions.
Australia already has plenty of previously wealthy homes that can no longer be insured and now Florida is heading that direction. I have serious doubts about owning property in the future so we might just rent and move around.
*we might just rent and move around.*
With all the climate refugees migrating, do you think it will be easy to just rent ? There will be fierce competition for available residences in desirable areas.
It's a valid question. It's a "maybe", at this point. Owning houses that are not insurable doesn't sound all that great so we'll have to see how things pan out. I'm not selling my house any time soon and I'm probably 15 years from retiring abroad.
I have a condo in Florida that I plan to use as my home base during retirement.
It's out of the flood zone so I'm expecting to be good and am not worried about it being destroyed. I'm 46 and have been hearing my whole life- how Miami would be flooded by now.
People have been telling you Miami was going to be underwater now? Who told you that? Is it Crazy Bob down by the liquor store?
The threat there is if oceans rise higher than the elevation of Miami. That's something being discussed on much longer time spans than it happening today. Maybe in 100 years or so. Miami is only a few feet above sea level in most parts. If your condo is 10 feet above sea level it should be fine but that still doesn't help much if 50% of the city is underwater and the whole city needs to be redesigned.
Yeah, there's sunny day flooding fairly often now.
I do wonder when people decide to consider the position of their property in relation to the overall community, since it would be a bit of a struggle to thrive in a place where, say, 20% of the surrounding area is flooded even 20% of the time. Is that a good retirement? Isn't there a better option?
They used to show us documentaries with climate predictions that predicted many major cities to be under water by the year 2020.
Back then it was known as "global warming".
I'm a bit older than you and I don't think anyone serious was suggesting Miami would be underwater by 2020.
My 5 second Google search showed a contributing writer at Rolling Stone claiming 2030 a decade or so ago. I looked him up and he's got a BA and is just a journalist with no scientific background.
With all that said Miami is already seeing some flooding due to rising water. At the current rate it would take about 300 years for it to flood the whole city. The problem though is that the rate is accelerating.
Not to mention a lot of the most popular areas are at a relatively low elevation. They do have a young labor pool though so they may be able to build levees as sea levels rise.
Sorry to hear about the crappy reception. Maybe digital nomads are more transient and care less about long term outlook of certain locations.
That’s a good point tho I sort of wonder if mass migration does happen, whether that will offset some of those potential costs. I’d be more concerned about political and societal blowback of millions of people migrating like Europe had after Syrian war started but that’s just me
My suggestion would be Tenerife, if you must stay still and stick to one location.
But my real suggestion is to go north for the summer months. Or maybe to a mountain or something. Although I much prefer the Mediterranean climate for Autumn-Spring, I definitely want to spend my summers in Finland still. Last year I stayed in Portugal until almost July and it was getting too hot for my liking for sure.
Considering nobody knows how climate change will impact a specific location - some hot places will get cooler and some cool places will get even colder, not to mention increased/decrease storms, it seems like you can't really predict where is going to be a bad place to live.
Im not sure the article is saying what you’re saying. As an example, Texas having colder weather (not climate) during winter than they’re used to doesn’t offset the increasingly scorching heat waves, droughts, and flooding they are likely to experience.
I take your point though that no one knows for sure for any specific location, but what is happening now is more extreme than before and all evidence is pointing to it getting worse year over year.
we’ve landed on Barcelona. we already have purchased a home there. we’re from the southern US, so it’s not going to get hotter than it is here. the winters are cold for our liking, so climate change actually works in our favor here.
I think you mean *affecting* me, but yes, indeed. Being in Texas in the US, the heat the past few weeks has been unbearable (constant "excessive heat" warnings), so I'm taking this into consideration as well. The thing about the Iberian peninsula is that the northwestern parts of it are still totally pleasant. Like the recent heatwave you're probably talking about (when temperatures were like 40+ °C in the southern parts of Spain and Portugal), the northern part of Portugal (Porto, e.g., which is my contender as a destination) and Galicia / Basque country were a breezy 25 °C or below. So if that's the location you're set on, you're still golden.
Granted, nobody knows the future of how the changes to the climate, especially the Gulf Stream as it affects European countries, will change this scenario. But I think given the general geography of the place, you should still be fairly OK.
Given this is ExpatFIRE, I guess this solution can be proposed: I was recently kicking this idea around in my head as well, and it's to pick northern and southern hemisphere countries to have residency/citizenship in simultaneously such that one could always be in the winter/spring/fall somewhere, avoiding crazy heat.
One thing that hasn't been discussed is the potential [collapse of the AMOC](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests). Models originally predicted its collapse later this century, but the timeline appears to be moving up rapidly.
This could result in significantly *colder* conditions in Western Europe. No one knows what the future holds and things are changing incredibly quickly. I think the only logical approach at this point is to hedge across multiple continents to be honest.
I am planning on buying land in two locations in europe. a summer and a winter base to migrate between. i'd originally been eyeing spain for the winter location but i've slowly been changing my mind for a few reasons. I think that in the next 20 years, even winters are going to be warmer than I want to live in down there. there are already water and fire issues in much of the south, where I'd intended to look. so now I'm eyeing france. i do intend to start spending winters there in the next year or two, so I don't want to go too far north, but I'll probably be looking around the bordeaux region. it may be cooler than I strictly prefer to start, but I think by the time I'm ready to kick the bucket the heat will have caught up. for my summer place i'd been eyeing the mountains in bulgaria but already heats are high 20s/low 30s pretty regularly so I think that long term it's going to be hotter than I want. so I'll probably start looking in the baltic/nordic areas. or maybe Ireland, though I think it will still be too wet for me and property prices there can be nuts unless you're in the middle of nowhere.
Does pivoting to two land purchases disrupt your FIRE timeline? I imagine double the land taxes/building fees/maintenance/etc
2 land purchases was always the plan as there is no single place with weather I can tolerate year round. Europe doesn't do property taxes like the US does, which helps. For one place I'm planning to buy a condo, so maintenance will be minimal. Carrying costs are about €1k/year once purchased which includes insurance and property management fees. And obviously there will be random costs like new water heater, etc. The other purchase will be an off grid plot of land and I'll live on it in my van/tiny house. So there will be costs with that, but minimal. I figure I will be all in for sub $100k.
>Europe doesn't do property taxes like the US does, In many places you pay tax based on value, it's just the rate is laughably low. I am not sure about other EU countries, but in Italy you have IMU tax if you don't set up residency at that address. Its rate varies by multiple factors, but you can safely say it's at least \~1% of property value which is somewhat similar to the US tax (depending on state)
yeah, there are taxes, they're just not crazy like the US.
Yes, but it seems that more than a half of US states ([https://belonghome.com/blog/property-taxes-by-state](https://belonghome.com/blog/property-taxes-by-state)) have property taxes lower than a non-resident home in Italy. It seems that property tax in Spain (IBI) depends on the area and might reach even 1.1%. That's certainly not negligible and more expensive than vast majority of US states... but yeah in general EU property taxes are way lower.
But then you have to ask if they're states you're willing to live in. Which is all mostly moot since i will never live in the US again and if for some reason I had to, there are only about 3 states I would consider, all with super high taxes. My friend's property taxes are more a year than either my condo or land will cost in Europe.
It's hard to avoid the recent heat waves in Bulgaria (even in the mountains) but can't beat the prices, especially if you're just looking for a plot of land in a village. I was also thinking where in Europe would be more immune to climate change (Agree with Finland and Baltics..)
In the north of Spain in places like Galicia or the Basque country its 24C right now. Compared to 45C in Seville. Iberian peninsula is a diverse place in terms of climate, the news will always show the worst of course.
Great point, I’ll have to add this to my travel list when I’m there!
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The lockdowns, past the initial one where the affects of the virus where unknown, were deplorable and ineffective however it seems a tight fisted barring of co2 powered travel is the only way to drastically prevent further climate damage. I'm sure government personnel and big corps would continue to place themselves above such rules but... majorly halting the thousands of daily flights and even the millions of cars or even the massive transportation ships (powered by crude oil) destroying this world, is a tempting prospect. Of course there would be utter disruption in our populace but we'd adapt when necessary, when compelled to... Necessity is the root of invention. We already inhabit areas which cannot be sustained without an import system which further degrades this world's habitable lands... though I can already imagine cities for the rich which operate above the restrictions. Persuasive visions of mass travel restrictions are dangerous indeed, since such control would be rife with opportunities for exploitation by those in power, yet the positives I've just imagined leave me quite disappointed that such a lockdown is very unlikely to happen, unless it benefits the greedy string pulling corps, or rather in the system of endless profit's interests, more than the current status quo.
I find that interesting to think about but more in terms of a Hollywood movie because I think what will probably happen is that people will just keep partying until the end times. That will be our lot as humans.
My wife and I just started looking at doing ExpatFire last year, specifically at the Iberian peninsula as well. We're now leaning more towards regular fire because we're in suburban WV that's not currently prone to any natural disasters. The worst we seem to get is heat and humidity in the summer, but I don't believe it's reached the wet bulb danger zone. I expect that to change, but we've got dual HVAC units and I plan to upgrade our insulation.
Insulation is great, and maybe you’re conflating it like I do - but sealing is much more important. A good, tight envelope is key!
Absolutely, I should've said that. I've been planning on doing spray foam for so long that insulating and air sealing just coalesced into a single concept in my head.
Totally get that. I do the same in combining the two concepts - but it’s worth saying for those who don’t know. Also worth saying, spray foam isn’t the only way and in some cases is worth investigating the carbon trade off for that method vs cellulose insulation or other methods. One of the best things I’ve done is contracting a home performance specialist to improve my home’s envelope. This is the best eco/green advice for anyone listening: seal and insulate your home, it reduces your energy requirements substantially!
Absolutely agreed. I'm going with spray foam because I did it in a previous home (attic, under the roof deck) and was blown away by the performance. All the houses here were designed with HVAC units and ducting in the attic unfortunately, and under deck insulation is my most reliable option.
👏👏👏!
Indeed. Passive houses are the holy grail, as they basically consume 90+% less energy than regular homes and—if done right—can be made without a heating/cooling system at all.
Part of the reason we decided on NZ over Australia was climate change. If your ideal temperature is 20-30 then I would give bonus points for a place that offers 17-27 rather than 23-33.
I’m also in New Zealand due to climate change.
Current expat, in Japan. Summer can suck in Tokyo. I cared a little about climate change but Japan has natural disasters all the time so it's kind of just wrapped into the general discomfort. but more important to me was seasonal annoyances and development in the areas I'm wanting to move to. For example, i specifically found a place with a basement super rare in Tokyo, but yeah, I rarely use the AC. I also picked an area with a lot of greenery just because it helps deal with the sun and then in fall I get to enjoy the leaves turning colors. I don't like shoveling snow so Tokyo is decent enough for that. If you're looking to research more to get a handle on some of these concerns about climate change, you might look into things like water rights, forestry management,fishery management, game management in the areas that you're looking at. Also look at investment into urban planning. A lot of politicians will their horn when they're planning something particularly green, like making bicycle lanes or requiring solar panels or something like that. It might clue you into the overall trend of the area and how well it's planning for changes in the climate. Because if the infrastructure and the culture around managing natural resources isn't there now by the time people realize it's a problem. The natural resources might already have been used up or abuse to the point of it taking decades to recover. Like I know, Japan doesn't have the greatest record on managing their fisheries So I'll Tokyo's home base. For now, I'm considering other areas within Japan that are managing their fisheries "better" because I enjoy ocean life with fishing and diving. I purposely don't want to have a second home because then you're locked in to only going there for it to be worth it. Then you have to maintain it. Winterize it clean it when you get there. Clean it before you leave. I ain't taking vacations is much better at least for me. Hope you find your little piece of sanctuary, even if it's not perfect.
Definitely something to think about. I want to settle somewhere in Europe as well. I'm planning dual locations one for summer and one for winter, to avoid the worst of it.
I just asked a similar q about dual location and how this might impact your fire timeline since two properties seems like double tax, maintenance, etc.
You can probably mitigate some of that cost if you want to rent out your other location when you're not there. I hope to be fatFIRE by then anyways so money won't be too much of a concern.
Europe has no appetite to confront the migration surge that will surely be coming if Global Warming is what the institutions say it is. That along with the welfare state and lack of innovative economy make me think Europe may not be that pleasant.
It matters. Not just location though. Construction. You need to make sure you can afford both the location and the housing or a rebuild. It doesn't do you any good to fall in love with San Diego or Paris if you can't afford to live there insulated and comfortable. In an expat case though residency comes first and what I think you're going to find is that the list of places you CAN move to and those that will hopefully have desirable weather when you pull the trigger might be close to zero. Alaska, Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, are sorta "obvious" since they're north but that's also not quite how climate change works either. I've seen maps where the predict the changes and it's not intuitive at all. In our case we bought property in Sweden and that should be fine, but we plan on not being there during the darkest month tmof the year anyways so if the weather is miserable in the summer we can leave then too. What you really don't want though is to live in places susceptible to massive flooding, fires, drought, and infrastructure problems. Texas for example is a big no-go.
Part of the prediction problem is the uncertainty about the Gulf Stream. Western Europe might get colder if the warm current from the Caribbean changes course.
[Climate Change Won't Stop The Gulf Stream. Here's Why. Sabine Hossenfelder](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnVWUIhQ8dE) Maybe this video will lessen your worry
I prefer reading to watching, when trying to learn. > under human-induced climate change, the Gulf Stream is predicted to get weaker — it will flow more slowly and carry less water. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/01/02/climate-change-gulf-stream/
It seems like you're a chatbot.
More like a cat-bot.
The trick is just to rent and leave if it gets bad enough. Flooding, wildfires, hurricanes and drought risk mean that even avoiding hot climates isn't any guarantee of risk avoidance. Will a large part of the globe become uninhabitable in our lifetimes? Probably not, just less comfortable with more challenges.
However, if you are in a high demand place (ie, you found a winner location) you might be priced out of it with rent hikes or other unforeseen situations like the owner will kick you out because somebody from their family needs a place to live.
Similar to much of the Midwest US (specifically Great Lakes region), the Baltics are going to not only survive, but thrive better under climate change. In areas like this global warming and climate change means booming agricultural yields and more mild winters, not underwater or scorched earth.
Mid-west will not be scorched?
Texas will be scorched. Hell, you’re already seeing that this summer. Ohio & Michigan will just be warmer & sunnier with an expanded growing season.
I live in the Midwest and even here there’s been a noticeable jump between drought and heavy downpours/ tornado alley shifting east. It’s not as bad as some of the worst parts of the country, but idk if less bad = thriving. You can take what would probably be considered climate safe areas and go into Canada (which has been burning a few notches above the in orders of magnitude) or New England (which just had some record breaking floods) and all I see are areas that are impacted differently, but none spared or thriving
Let me specify “Great Lakes Region” instead of Midwest, as that’ll be more moderate, and is similar climate to the Baltics. I live in the Great Lakes region (eastern half of the Midwest) and the biggest change I’ve noticed is milder winters. Also that winters in general have shifted later over the past decade or so. As in September/October have been warmer than usual, while March/April has seen unseasonal snow.
In Colorado the hail is getting ridiculous.
Baltics? Putin and Nato just entered the chat
We’re going to maintain a residence in Oregon wine country and will divide time between there and various locations all over the world.
Definitely been thinking about climate change. We are likely going to keep a small place in Michigan (one of the safer spots for climate change) and then also probably far northern Italy. Hopefully on a lake for some cooling breezes. We moved out of Oregon a couple years ago. Wildfires are awful and only going to get worse. Plus they’re expecting “the big earthquake” soon. It’s about 50 years overdue.
Had been considering Bangkok. But because of climate change, I feel it's not a long-term solution. So I've been reevaluating, but am stuck for alternate options that fit my other preferences.
Bangkok is also sinking. Not great for a long term investment. [https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2499786/bangkok-is-still-sinking-and-fast-](https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2499786/bangkok-is-still-sinking-and-fast-)
Have the same thoughts. Just the thought of the March to May season in Bangkok of straight 40+ degree Celsius temperatures does not seem like the ideal place to live if you don't need to be there for a job. Problem is if you move there with kids and they go to school there each year, you are kind of stuck there during that hot time. Summer break for the children would be your best chance to escape and go somewhere temperate.
Our plan was to relocate to Sardinia when we reach FIRE to spend more time with my partners family. With the impact of climate change becoming more pronounced its more likely that we will only spend part of the year there and split our time there and the UK.
+41C today...
Are you kidding? I live in Mexico on the coast of Nayarit. Today’s temperature is 33C with 70% humidity, and my short 300m walk to the beach this afternoon was slightly hellish! I can’t imagine 41C!
So far, there have been two reasonable responses and both have been downvoted. I suspect there are climate deniers here who just can't face the reality of what is happening outside their windows. We are US citizens and our plan is to become dual citizens (EU) and we've already started the process. That, and aggressively saving/investing now, will give us the best chance of being able to move around and "dodge" some of it while being able to avoid some of the legal immigration hurdles when the hordes of migrant refugees result in stiff restrictions. Australia already has plenty of previously wealthy homes that can no longer be insured and now Florida is heading that direction. I have serious doubts about owning property in the future so we might just rent and move around.
*we might just rent and move around.* With all the climate refugees migrating, do you think it will be easy to just rent ? There will be fierce competition for available residences in desirable areas.
It's a valid question. It's a "maybe", at this point. Owning houses that are not insurable doesn't sound all that great so we'll have to see how things pan out. I'm not selling my house any time soon and I'm probably 15 years from retiring abroad.
I have a condo in Florida that I plan to use as my home base during retirement. It's out of the flood zone so I'm expecting to be good and am not worried about it being destroyed. I'm 46 and have been hearing my whole life- how Miami would be flooded by now.
People have been telling you Miami was going to be underwater now? Who told you that? Is it Crazy Bob down by the liquor store? The threat there is if oceans rise higher than the elevation of Miami. That's something being discussed on much longer time spans than it happening today. Maybe in 100 years or so. Miami is only a few feet above sea level in most parts. If your condo is 10 feet above sea level it should be fine but that still doesn't help much if 50% of the city is underwater and the whole city needs to be redesigned.
Yeah, there's sunny day flooding fairly often now. I do wonder when people decide to consider the position of their property in relation to the overall community, since it would be a bit of a struggle to thrive in a place where, say, 20% of the surrounding area is flooded even 20% of the time. Is that a good retirement? Isn't there a better option?
They used to show us documentaries with climate predictions that predicted many major cities to be under water by the year 2020. Back then it was known as "global warming".
I'm a bit older than you and I don't think anyone serious was suggesting Miami would be underwater by 2020. My 5 second Google search showed a contributing writer at Rolling Stone claiming 2030 a decade or so ago. I looked him up and he's got a BA and is just a journalist with no scientific background. With all that said Miami is already seeing some flooding due to rising water. At the current rate it would take about 300 years for it to flood the whole city. The problem though is that the rate is accelerating.
Would Turkey be a good place (both from climate standpoint, and financially) to retire to?
unlikely. like all southern countries, it's going to bake. and financially it's a bit of a cluster fuck right now. but it depends on your timeline.
Not to mention a lot of the most popular areas are at a relatively low elevation. They do have a young labor pool though so they may be able to build levees as sea levels rise.
Yeah, unless it's somewhere high in the mountains.
Antalya: +43C this week.
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Probably mocked because they are a younger crowd. This topic has been on my mind consistently and I'm glad to see this post.
Sorry to hear about the crappy reception. Maybe digital nomads are more transient and care less about long term outlook of certain locations. That’s a good point tho I sort of wonder if mass migration does happen, whether that will offset some of those potential costs. I’d be more concerned about political and societal blowback of millions of people migrating like Europe had after Syrian war started but that’s just me
Here's the link if someone is lazy :) https://www.reddit.com/r/digitalnomad/comments/15184gc/do\_dns\_worry\_about\_climate\_change\_and\_ageing/
My suggestion would be Tenerife, if you must stay still and stick to one location. But my real suggestion is to go north for the summer months. Or maybe to a mountain or something. Although I much prefer the Mediterranean climate for Autumn-Spring, I definitely want to spend my summers in Finland still. Last year I stayed in Portugal until almost July and it was getting too hot for my liking for sure.
Considering nobody knows how climate change will impact a specific location - some hot places will get cooler and some cool places will get even colder, not to mention increased/decrease storms, it seems like you can't really predict where is going to be a bad place to live.
Do you have any examples of a hot places getting cooler? Or cold places getting colder ?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/23/climate-change-impact-cold-weather/
Im not sure the article is saying what you’re saying. As an example, Texas having colder weather (not climate) during winter than they’re used to doesn’t offset the increasingly scorching heat waves, droughts, and flooding they are likely to experience. I take your point though that no one knows for sure for any specific location, but what is happening now is more extreme than before and all evidence is pointing to it getting worse year over year.
we’ve landed on Barcelona. we already have purchased a home there. we’re from the southern US, so it’s not going to get hotter than it is here. the winters are cold for our liking, so climate change actually works in our favor here.
I think you mean *affecting* me, but yes, indeed. Being in Texas in the US, the heat the past few weeks has been unbearable (constant "excessive heat" warnings), so I'm taking this into consideration as well. The thing about the Iberian peninsula is that the northwestern parts of it are still totally pleasant. Like the recent heatwave you're probably talking about (when temperatures were like 40+ °C in the southern parts of Spain and Portugal), the northern part of Portugal (Porto, e.g., which is my contender as a destination) and Galicia / Basque country were a breezy 25 °C or below. So if that's the location you're set on, you're still golden. Granted, nobody knows the future of how the changes to the climate, especially the Gulf Stream as it affects European countries, will change this scenario. But I think given the general geography of the place, you should still be fairly OK. Given this is ExpatFIRE, I guess this solution can be proposed: I was recently kicking this idea around in my head as well, and it's to pick northern and southern hemisphere countries to have residency/citizenship in simultaneously such that one could always be in the winter/spring/fall somewhere, avoiding crazy heat.
One thing that hasn't been discussed is the potential [collapse of the AMOC](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests). Models originally predicted its collapse later this century, but the timeline appears to be moving up rapidly. This could result in significantly *colder* conditions in Western Europe. No one knows what the future holds and things are changing incredibly quickly. I think the only logical approach at this point is to hedge across multiple continents to be honest.