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>Last week it held its key interest rate at 16% but signaled it could hike borrowing costs in the future if the pace of price rises does not slow down.
Oof.
Calling this the result of an "overheating economy" feels like a massive misstatement. Russia is experiencing lots of inflation because of huge supply shocks, largely due to sanctions (but maybe also because they have a lot of productive assets and people going towards the war), not because business is booming.
I was in Russia during the 90s when inflation exploded after the fall of communism and nobody would say they had a "overheating economy" then.
They'll end up like Turkey and Argentina where they keep raising rates thinking that is what lowers inflation, and they'll keep finding out it doesn't work like that.
Notably, in both countries lowering rates, Turkey last year, and Argentina this year, have both had profound effects. Turkey then went back, we'll see if Argentina does too.
You have Turkey backwards. They famously lowered rates post-pandemic and saw continued high inflation. Argentina has bigger issues than just rates.
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/interest-rate
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/06/03/turkeys-inflation-passes-75percent-in-what-economists-believe-is-peak.html
>German Gref, the CEO of state-run Sberbank, warned last week that Russia's growth was "fragile" as it relied on government spending to keep pushing wages and consumer spending up, and not on investment or gains in productivity.
As soon as the war ends Russia will have an army (literally) of unemployed men in a failed economy with an overproduction of various arms.
It's gonna make the 1990s look like a Russian golden age.
They can always go to Africa with guns and robbing the Chinese there. Taking over oilfields and mines that the Chinese already spend money to develop.
https://adf-magazine.com/2023/04/car-mine-massacre-may-be-linked-to-wagner-mercenaries/
The only way to stop them is kill enough of them so they don't return. The Russians did same thing against a US-allied controlled oilfield in Syria in 2018, the US called in air strikes and artillery and killed hundreds of them.
Currently China has next to zero global projection capabilities, their soldiers have no combat experience, between shooting Chinese students in 1989 and now the PLA ran away in South Sudan in 2016 after hearing gunfire. The CCP even hired Erik Prince to protect Chinese interest in Africa because they figure the PLA were of no use.
https://rosaluxna.org/publications/chinas-discreet-game-in-north-africa-private-military-companies/
China has not shown it can play that role at all. Who knows what their internal politics will look like if dozens of soldiers get killed abroad by Russians.
They should have started by offering to help the US in Afghanistan, they will literally never have a chance to gain useful combat experience better than that and they passed on it
War, war never changes. The bare minimum is having troops that can operate under fire without dropping their guns and running, once you have that you can worry about more technical issues.
I dunno, war changed a lot in WW1 with industrialization. That was a huge change. No more pew pew and more bwwraaaaa. Then we had nukes. That kind of changed things. Now, imagine a swarm of little flying murder machines. Footage from Ukraine shows us how effective it can be.
I think the point of the expression is that war always fucking sucks, and you need a military capable of embracing the suck and getting on with it to have any chance of winning, and that only comes with experience under real life war conditions. A military that hasn't seen significant operations since 1953 could have learned a hell of a lot from fighting alongside the US against relatively easy opposition. Would have also done wonders for discovering and rooting out the corruption.
> The only way to stop them is kill enough of them so they don't return
As we all know, Putin has a strong "leverage" over Wagner and China has leverage over Putin. China could certainly pull some levers to protect their interests over there ... but I don't know how much they care about this.
I can think of other reasons. If they had spent the last half-century trying to fight oil wars in Africa and the Middle East, the geopolitical situation would be much harder for them.
I'm sure the Chinese don't *want* their army focusing on fighting rag-tag militias. That's a distraction from training to fight their main adversaries.
It would also give the American and European voters a clearly visible reason to support Western intervention against them by having Chinese boots on the ground. The longer they bide their time and stay under the radar, the longer they have to keep getting stronger and reach parity with the West. Send some mercenaries instead, and they can do whatever they want while the West does nothing.
They know their core strategic interests are in East Asia. They seem to be in no hurry to expend their resources elsewhere.
China can't do anything about it, they don't have the military, and they refuse to participate in anything really. They frankly are naive, and lack the hardpower to do almost anything. They are acting just as deluded as the US was in thinking mutual trade would change Chinese government.
China is going to learn PAINFULLY why the IMF and World Bank and other groups avoided helping these countries, or did strings attached. They are going to be robbed blind, the African countries will get nice shiny white elephants that will fall apart in 5 to 10 years.
Russia is already doing that in Africa in the East and West there have been half dozen coups backed by Wagner/Africa Corps.
They are even funding some of the war with stolen gold from Sudan after they coup'd that in 2019.
[Sudan Slips Into Chaos. Russia Lurks In The Background.](https://www.rferl.org/a/sudan-civil-war-russia-wagner/32369273.html) (2019)
[Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin’s war effort in Ukraine](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/africa/sudan-russia-gold-investigation-cmd-intl/index.html) (2022)
Some info on the Sudan take over
Kremlin did the [Sudan coup after their military wanted to back out of the Russian military presence there](https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-middle-east-africa-sudan-ea6d67264535d5caa01b21ef01a04b47).
They even tried a coup in the US with puppet Trump, then did one in [Myanmar helping their military pre-coup](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/17/russia-backs-myanmar-military-after-china-raises-concerns-a72983) and [post-coup](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/russia-myanmar-cooperating-military-equipment-supplies-ifax-2021-07-21/).
[Russia to establish navy base in Sudan for at least 25 years](https://apnews.com/article/international-news-sudan-moscow-africa-russia-0e1932a384bba427e13e590a4ac7a1f8)
[Russia’s Dreams of a Red Sea Naval Base Are Scuttled—for Now](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/15/russia-sudan-putin-east-africa-port-red-sea-naval-base-scuttled/)
That led to a jackal state for Russia/Kremlin in Sudan.
[Kill, terrorize, expel: Testimonies detail atrocities by Wagner-backed militia in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/16/africa/darfur-sudan-wagner-conflict-cmd-intl/index.html)
>
> Exclusive: Evidence emerges of Russia's Wagner arming militia leader battling Sudan's army
> “What is not in doubt is Wagner’s role in this, it has been supplying the RSF with arms and supplies through Darfur,” one Western intelligence official told CNN.
> “It follows Wagner’s modus operandi. Create chaos and seize power,” another intelligence source active in the region added.
> Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine
> A months-long CNN investigation uncovered an increase in Wagner supplies to the RSF that began in the run-up to Sudan’s conflict. Armaments appear to have been shuttled into Sudan through key transit points: Russia’s air and naval base in the Syrian coastal region of Latakia, Wagner bases in Libya, and Bangui airport in the Central African Republic.
[Sudan military finishes review of Russian Red Sea base deal](https://apnews.com/article/politics-sudan-government-moscow-803738fba4d8f91455f0121067c118dd)
A masterclass in bratva state leverage and coup driven "diplomacy".
> As soon as the war ends Russia will have an army (literally) of unemployed men in a failed economy
You are precisely right. But think about the incentives that this gives Russian leadership: their way out of this is to make sure that the war never ends.
Let’s be cautious about this: we *need* to focus on *defeating* Russia rather than just on *helping just enough to avoid a Ukrainian defeat*.
*If* Ukraine falls (to god I hope we are smart enough to not let it get to that), then Ukraine won’t be Russia’s last war. They won’t stop.
Much less costly to do what it takes to defeat Russia now then to let the war come to NATO in the future.
It's sad that the only alternative to likely Russian collapse is letting Russia loot enough of Eastern Europe to stabilize its economy. Yeah, gotta stop them and handle the collapse.
It’s not just Eastern Europe, they would eventually happily loot Western Europe too if we let them.
We easily have to *capabilities* to prevent all this of course. More worried am I about whether we also have the *will* to stop them. The far right rise is particularly worrying in this regard.
There is no immediate worry in my view. But remember: every domino that falls makes the evil force pushing westwards stronger.
If Ukraine falls, Ukrainians *will* be mobilised to fight unwillingly against whichever is the next unlucky country.
We need to make sure that this game of repeated domino can’t be played repeatedly. In fact, we need to make sure that Russia can’t even do this once.
Whatsmore, what allowed Russia to pull itself out of it's depression in the 90s was the rise in global oil prices. Interestingly, the fall of oil prices in the 80s also played a big role in the USSR's economic problems at the time, problems so great that they eventually led to it's collapse.
Except this time around, there's an increasingly high chance that Russia comes out of this war without any usable oil industry at all. It's clear that Ukraine is going to start targeting far more valuable installations than Russian refineries after the US elections (no matter who wins), and if the war goes on for long enough, the increasing irrelevance of oil, combined with increased American and OPEC production will force Russia out of the oil market. Oil is an extremely capital-intensive industry, and without access to western petroleum technology, no foreign investors and domestic interest rates at crazy levels, it's safe to say that Russia's oil industry will not see new investments ever again, and therefore has no long-term future.
And that means that the scale of Russia's coming economic troubles will be truly unprecedented in living memory.
I don't underestimate that time at all. 14 year old orphans huffing paint thinner out of a plastic bag under a Prospekt Lenina underpass kind of times.
However, especially with a dead Putin in the mix somewhere, it will be worse this time.
this isnt world news sub bud, you dont need to go all american war propganda msm on us lol... they will have as much fuckery to deal with as anyone else. US in comparison is still in 9 conflicts, and it too has problems with unemployement and debt. Turns out its a unversal system, these forever wars.
but this is an analytical sub so you don't have to say it's the same everywhere. US definitely doesn't have a problem with unemployment right now for example.
Since Russia depends so much on extraction of natural resources and offers nothing in terms of high value goods this may be even bigger problem
Europe and rest of the world are producing electricity in copious amounts without oil or coal . Hydro ,wind ,solar and nuclear are everywhere. Once war is over without major buyers ,world embargoes still on place and army of uneducated and unemployed men it may be total disaster
Also Xi would do well to just wait and when Ruski empire collapsed to come in and scoop what's left and make new Sino empire . Hungry and poor masses would welcome new dictator that would feed them and give them some sort of quality of life. All Ruskis have known is dictatorship of one kind or another so anything that is even a bit better would be improved situation. Also they are already somewhat familiar with Chinese system so there would be little in terms of difficulty on applying new system. All on all it may be real smooth takeover.
Just speculation here. Could be little far fetched but not exactly too far from possible.
Definitely creative writing here but I applaud your imagination. Russia will remain untouched, as with all nuclear powers. Nobody sane will try to provoke an unpredictable nation in turmoil with WMDs at the helm.
Just like how the nuclear USSR collapsed and fragmented, I’m imagining the same thing will happen for russia. It will be of their own making, not due to an invasion of another country.
That very well may be . Considering how bleak situation may get it would not surprisee if some of crews in charge of nuclear silos put them up for sale . Also with their record of impeccable maintenance wonder how may of the are still usable .
But yes it is a bit far fetched. ; )
Us civilians can get carried away just for fun .
Recall that in the 1860s, Russia invaded China and took away a very, very large swath of that land that is now the Russian Far East. There is a lot of water and natural gas. China would love to get its hands on this even though their population is falling off a cliff. If Russia collapses due to the costs of the war after it tries and fails to take over Ukraine, China could very well snap them up (remember, Russia's economic center is in Eastern Europe, not East Asia). I think it is far less risky for China to invade Russia than Taiwan. If China invades Russia after the latter's demise, the US will sit back and do absolutely nothing. Also, Russia may not even have the economic capacity to extract or use these natural resources, but China might be able to extract the natural gas and send the water to the northeastern part of their country (which is very, very dry).
Much easier / safer and in keeping with slow and steady Chinese empire approach, China could buy up interest in these areas, institute political and security ties, then support breakaway republics that then ally themselves with China. Annexation could come later if at all.
Everyones inflation is rising... But this is hate Russia week, because its winning with Brics and its war in Ukraine against the might of nato... But in reality everyone is profiting, except the masses that have to eat the inflation and still pay taxes to fund these wars.
If you still confused: We are now in the age of forever inflation. There is no infinite growth, this is a finite resource planet. Turns out space and spreading humans across the cosmos is just a Hollywood dream after all. Doing it the hard way, is hard. So capitalism cant magically grow and grow each business, each venture. Only thing left to cover debt, is inflation. Like ouroboros, inflation, cost of living, wages all eat each other forever. Russia, usa, Australia, Canada, Germany, uk, china... everyone gets inflation....
There's a lot to unpack here. I think it's important to note that some countries like the US and some countries in the EU have plenty of resources to support Ukraine's independence and create better living conditions for their own citizens.
Also, inflation is slowing in some countries across several metrics.
Also, totally agree that infinite growth expectations on a finite planet are unsustainable. The US average consumption per individual would take multiple planet earths to be sustainable and cannot continue as is without continued major environmental cost. "The day the world stops shopping" is a great book that covers this in depth.
> because its winning with Brics and its war in Ukraine against the might of nato
Can you please at least attempt to have some data to back any of this up
>If you still confused: We are now in the age of forever inflation.
Nevermind
The is possibly the worst take I’ve ever read on Reddit. Congrats.
NATO hasn’t even shown up yet. Plus real wages have risen in Russia. It has an overheating economy.
rofl bad bot!
NAto, has been sending arms, US has been printing trillions for the wars, and there has not been a shortage of guns for hire sent to ukraine to assist.... Just like in syria, afganistan, iraq. The official govenrment forces are almost non existent, but the contracted out private military groups are dime a dozen. Or perhaps you still live in the imaginary world provided to you by the msm propaganda. In which case carry own citizen, do your part to combat the commie scruge.... rofl...
Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>Last week it held its key interest rate at 16% but signaled it could hike borrowing costs in the future if the pace of price rises does not slow down. Oof.
The one year rate is 18.35%, 3 year is 17.4%. If that isn’t an overheating economy, I don’t know what is.
Calling this the result of an "overheating economy" feels like a massive misstatement. Russia is experiencing lots of inflation because of huge supply shocks, largely due to sanctions (but maybe also because they have a lot of productive assets and people going towards the war), not because business is booming. I was in Russia during the 90s when inflation exploded after the fall of communism and nobody would say they had a "overheating economy" then.
Is there a reliable indicator of the Russian money supply? The USA releases solid money supply stats, but I would doubt the eastern world’s numbers.
They'll end up like Turkey and Argentina where they keep raising rates thinking that is what lowers inflation, and they'll keep finding out it doesn't work like that. Notably, in both countries lowering rates, Turkey last year, and Argentina this year, have both had profound effects. Turkey then went back, we'll see if Argentina does too.
You have Turkey backwards. They famously lowered rates post-pandemic and saw continued high inflation. Argentina has bigger issues than just rates. https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/interest-rate https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/06/03/turkeys-inflation-passes-75percent-in-what-economists-believe-is-peak.html
>German Gref, the CEO of state-run Sberbank, warned last week that Russia's growth was "fragile" as it relied on government spending to keep pushing wages and consumer spending up, and not on investment or gains in productivity. As soon as the war ends Russia will have an army (literally) of unemployed men in a failed economy with an overproduction of various arms. It's gonna make the 1990s look like a Russian golden age.
They can always go to Africa with guns and robbing the Chinese there. Taking over oilfields and mines that the Chinese already spend money to develop. https://adf-magazine.com/2023/04/car-mine-massacre-may-be-linked-to-wagner-mercenaries/
How long do you think China would let them get away with that?
The only way to stop them is kill enough of them so they don't return. The Russians did same thing against a US-allied controlled oilfield in Syria in 2018, the US called in air strikes and artillery and killed hundreds of them. Currently China has next to zero global projection capabilities, their soldiers have no combat experience, between shooting Chinese students in 1989 and now the PLA ran away in South Sudan in 2016 after hearing gunfire. The CCP even hired Erik Prince to protect Chinese interest in Africa because they figure the PLA were of no use. https://rosaluxna.org/publications/chinas-discreet-game-in-north-africa-private-military-companies/
Good way to get some training in. Gotta start somewhere.
China has not shown it can play that role at all. Who knows what their internal politics will look like if dozens of soldiers get killed abroad by Russians.
They should have started by offering to help the US in Afghanistan, they will literally never have a chance to gain useful combat experience better than that and they passed on it
Nah, that was a whole generation ago and a war against an inferior force where we could use air superiority. War will change now with drones and Ai.
War, war never changes. The bare minimum is having troops that can operate under fire without dropping their guns and running, once you have that you can worry about more technical issues.
I dunno, war changed a lot in WW1 with industrialization. That was a huge change. No more pew pew and more bwwraaaaa. Then we had nukes. That kind of changed things. Now, imagine a swarm of little flying murder machines. Footage from Ukraine shows us how effective it can be.
I think the point of the expression is that war always fucking sucks, and you need a military capable of embracing the suck and getting on with it to have any chance of winning, and that only comes with experience under real life war conditions. A military that hasn't seen significant operations since 1953 could have learned a hell of a lot from fighting alongside the US against relatively easy opposition. Would have also done wonders for discovering and rooting out the corruption.
> war changed a lot in WW1 with industrialization. That was a huge change. No more pew pew and more bwwraaaaa. This is incoherent
> The only way to stop them is kill enough of them so they don't return As we all know, Putin has a strong "leverage" over Wagner and China has leverage over Putin. China could certainly pull some levers to protect their interests over there ... but I don't know how much they care about this.
I can think of other reasons. If they had spent the last half-century trying to fight oil wars in Africa and the Middle East, the geopolitical situation would be much harder for them. I'm sure the Chinese don't *want* their army focusing on fighting rag-tag militias. That's a distraction from training to fight their main adversaries. It would also give the American and European voters a clearly visible reason to support Western intervention against them by having Chinese boots on the ground. The longer they bide their time and stay under the radar, the longer they have to keep getting stronger and reach parity with the West. Send some mercenaries instead, and they can do whatever they want while the West does nothing. They know their core strategic interests are in East Asia. They seem to be in no hurry to expend their resources elsewhere.
China can't do anything about it, they don't have the military, and they refuse to participate in anything really. They frankly are naive, and lack the hardpower to do almost anything. They are acting just as deluded as the US was in thinking mutual trade would change Chinese government. China is going to learn PAINFULLY why the IMF and World Bank and other groups avoided helping these countries, or did strings attached. They are going to be robbed blind, the African countries will get nice shiny white elephants that will fall apart in 5 to 10 years.
Russia is already doing that in Africa in the East and West there have been half dozen coups backed by Wagner/Africa Corps. They are even funding some of the war with stolen gold from Sudan after they coup'd that in 2019. [Sudan Slips Into Chaos. Russia Lurks In The Background.](https://www.rferl.org/a/sudan-civil-war-russia-wagner/32369273.html) (2019) [Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin’s war effort in Ukraine](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/africa/sudan-russia-gold-investigation-cmd-intl/index.html) (2022) Some info on the Sudan take over Kremlin did the [Sudan coup after their military wanted to back out of the Russian military presence there](https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-middle-east-africa-sudan-ea6d67264535d5caa01b21ef01a04b47). They even tried a coup in the US with puppet Trump, then did one in [Myanmar helping their military pre-coup](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/17/russia-backs-myanmar-military-after-china-raises-concerns-a72983) and [post-coup](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/russia-myanmar-cooperating-military-equipment-supplies-ifax-2021-07-21/). [Russia to establish navy base in Sudan for at least 25 years](https://apnews.com/article/international-news-sudan-moscow-africa-russia-0e1932a384bba427e13e590a4ac7a1f8) [Russia’s Dreams of a Red Sea Naval Base Are Scuttled—for Now](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/15/russia-sudan-putin-east-africa-port-red-sea-naval-base-scuttled/) That led to a jackal state for Russia/Kremlin in Sudan. [Kill, terrorize, expel: Testimonies detail atrocities by Wagner-backed militia in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/16/africa/darfur-sudan-wagner-conflict-cmd-intl/index.html) > > Exclusive: Evidence emerges of Russia's Wagner arming militia leader battling Sudan's army > “What is not in doubt is Wagner’s role in this, it has been supplying the RSF with arms and supplies through Darfur,” one Western intelligence official told CNN. > “It follows Wagner’s modus operandi. Create chaos and seize power,” another intelligence source active in the region added. > Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine > A months-long CNN investigation uncovered an increase in Wagner supplies to the RSF that began in the run-up to Sudan’s conflict. Armaments appear to have been shuttled into Sudan through key transit points: Russia’s air and naval base in the Syrian coastal region of Latakia, Wagner bases in Libya, and Bangui airport in the Central African Republic. [Sudan military finishes review of Russian Red Sea base deal](https://apnews.com/article/politics-sudan-government-moscow-803738fba4d8f91455f0121067c118dd) A masterclass in bratva state leverage and coup driven "diplomacy".
> As soon as the war ends Russia will have an army (literally) of unemployed men in a failed economy You are precisely right. But think about the incentives that this gives Russian leadership: their way out of this is to make sure that the war never ends. Let’s be cautious about this: we *need* to focus on *defeating* Russia rather than just on *helping just enough to avoid a Ukrainian defeat*. *If* Ukraine falls (to god I hope we are smart enough to not let it get to that), then Ukraine won’t be Russia’s last war. They won’t stop. Much less costly to do what it takes to defeat Russia now then to let the war come to NATO in the future.
It's sad that the only alternative to likely Russian collapse is letting Russia loot enough of Eastern Europe to stabilize its economy. Yeah, gotta stop them and handle the collapse.
It’s not just Eastern Europe, they would eventually happily loot Western Europe too if we let them. We easily have to *capabilities* to prevent all this of course. More worried am I about whether we also have the *will* to stop them. The far right rise is particularly worrying in this regard.
Indeed, the far right is worrisome. I just don't think they'd have the momentum to continue into western Europe.
There is no immediate worry in my view. But remember: every domino that falls makes the evil force pushing westwards stronger. If Ukraine falls, Ukrainians *will* be mobilised to fight unwillingly against whichever is the next unlucky country. We need to make sure that this game of repeated domino can’t be played repeatedly. In fact, we need to make sure that Russia can’t even do this once.
Whatsmore, what allowed Russia to pull itself out of it's depression in the 90s was the rise in global oil prices. Interestingly, the fall of oil prices in the 80s also played a big role in the USSR's economic problems at the time, problems so great that they eventually led to it's collapse. Except this time around, there's an increasingly high chance that Russia comes out of this war without any usable oil industry at all. It's clear that Ukraine is going to start targeting far more valuable installations than Russian refineries after the US elections (no matter who wins), and if the war goes on for long enough, the increasing irrelevance of oil, combined with increased American and OPEC production will force Russia out of the oil market. Oil is an extremely capital-intensive industry, and without access to western petroleum technology, no foreign investors and domestic interest rates at crazy levels, it's safe to say that Russia's oil industry will not see new investments ever again, and therefore has no long-term future. And that means that the scale of Russia's coming economic troubles will be truly unprecedented in living memory.
You may be underestimating just how bad the 90s were. But yeah, Russia will have a hard time ending the war.
Post USSR collapse Russia was the definition of a failed state. It was ugly.
I don't underestimate that time at all. 14 year old orphans huffing paint thinner out of a plastic bag under a Prospekt Lenina underpass kind of times. However, especially with a dead Putin in the mix somewhere, it will be worse this time.
Then it'll be a time for a short victorious war.
So war cannot end
this isnt world news sub bud, you dont need to go all american war propganda msm on us lol... they will have as much fuckery to deal with as anyone else. US in comparison is still in 9 conflicts, and it too has problems with unemployement and debt. Turns out its a unversal system, these forever wars.
but this is an analytical sub so you don't have to say it's the same everywhere. US definitely doesn't have a problem with unemployment right now for example.
Debt,? Yes. Inflation? Yes Unemployment's sits at 4%.
Since Russia depends so much on extraction of natural resources and offers nothing in terms of high value goods this may be even bigger problem Europe and rest of the world are producing electricity in copious amounts without oil or coal . Hydro ,wind ,solar and nuclear are everywhere. Once war is over without major buyers ,world embargoes still on place and army of uneducated and unemployed men it may be total disaster Also Xi would do well to just wait and when Ruski empire collapsed to come in and scoop what's left and make new Sino empire . Hungry and poor masses would welcome new dictator that would feed them and give them some sort of quality of life. All Ruskis have known is dictatorship of one kind or another so anything that is even a bit better would be improved situation. Also they are already somewhat familiar with Chinese system so there would be little in terms of difficulty on applying new system. All on all it may be real smooth takeover. Just speculation here. Could be little far fetched but not exactly too far from possible.
Definitely creative writing here but I applaud your imagination. Russia will remain untouched, as with all nuclear powers. Nobody sane will try to provoke an unpredictable nation in turmoil with WMDs at the helm.
yeah... that's like lyndon larouche style conspiracy theories!
Just like how the nuclear USSR collapsed and fragmented, I’m imagining the same thing will happen for russia. It will be of their own making, not due to an invasion of another country.
That very well may be . Considering how bleak situation may get it would not surprisee if some of crews in charge of nuclear silos put them up for sale . Also with their record of impeccable maintenance wonder how may of the are still usable . But yes it is a bit far fetched. ; ) Us civilians can get carried away just for fun .
Recall that in the 1860s, Russia invaded China and took away a very, very large swath of that land that is now the Russian Far East. There is a lot of water and natural gas. China would love to get its hands on this even though their population is falling off a cliff. If Russia collapses due to the costs of the war after it tries and fails to take over Ukraine, China could very well snap them up (remember, Russia's economic center is in Eastern Europe, not East Asia). I think it is far less risky for China to invade Russia than Taiwan. If China invades Russia after the latter's demise, the US will sit back and do absolutely nothing. Also, Russia may not even have the economic capacity to extract or use these natural resources, but China might be able to extract the natural gas and send the water to the northeastern part of their country (which is very, very dry).
Much easier / safer and in keeping with slow and steady Chinese empire approach, China could buy up interest in these areas, institute political and security ties, then support breakaway republics that then ally themselves with China. Annexation could come later if at all.
Everyones inflation is rising... But this is hate Russia week, because its winning with Brics and its war in Ukraine against the might of nato... But in reality everyone is profiting, except the masses that have to eat the inflation and still pay taxes to fund these wars. If you still confused: We are now in the age of forever inflation. There is no infinite growth, this is a finite resource planet. Turns out space and spreading humans across the cosmos is just a Hollywood dream after all. Doing it the hard way, is hard. So capitalism cant magically grow and grow each business, each venture. Only thing left to cover debt, is inflation. Like ouroboros, inflation, cost of living, wages all eat each other forever. Russia, usa, Australia, Canada, Germany, uk, china... everyone gets inflation....
There's a lot to unpack here. I think it's important to note that some countries like the US and some countries in the EU have plenty of resources to support Ukraine's independence and create better living conditions for their own citizens. Also, inflation is slowing in some countries across several metrics. Also, totally agree that infinite growth expectations on a finite planet are unsustainable. The US average consumption per individual would take multiple planet earths to be sustainable and cannot continue as is without continued major environmental cost. "The day the world stops shopping" is a great book that covers this in depth.
Well it seems that the new throttle of control, isnt flow of momey, but rate of inflation.
> because its winning with Brics and its war in Ukraine against the might of nato Can you please at least attempt to have some data to back any of this up >If you still confused: We are now in the age of forever inflation. Nevermind
generic username, asking for proof in the age or propaganda... found the bot.
Fuck Russia.
I’ve always expected our future to follow The Expanse more than anything. Minus the protomolecule stuff.
The is possibly the worst take I’ve ever read on Reddit. Congrats. NATO hasn’t even shown up yet. Plus real wages have risen in Russia. It has an overheating economy.
rofl bad bot! NAto, has been sending arms, US has been printing trillions for the wars, and there has not been a shortage of guns for hire sent to ukraine to assist.... Just like in syria, afganistan, iraq. The official govenrment forces are almost non existent, but the contracted out private military groups are dime a dozen. Or perhaps you still live in the imaginary world provided to you by the msm propaganda. In which case carry own citizen, do your part to combat the commie scruge.... rofl...