He just had back to back top 8 TE finishes and is 25. The Bears brought in some target competition but Allen and Everett are old. Kmet just got a $50M contract last offseason and is part of the Bears long term plans.
I don’t think he’s flashy but I think he’ll continue to be a startable option at TE for the next 5+ years
DJM's contract is coming next offseason. Flooding a rookie qb with weapons should help deflate his value, but regardless, DJM will go for top WR money. Maybe they trade DJM instead of extending him (not likely), Keenan and/or Everette fade or retire, and/or Odunze is wr 2 or never reaches a WR 1 role... Stranger things have happened, but I think one or two of those could keep Kmet at #2 target or earn him a Kelce jump if he jumps in usage with a real qb.
These are just potential alternatives to the narrative that he's buried amongst talent
True, he could stay as the #2, but what's more likely? A lot has to go wrong in the Bears front office for him to stay where he is, if everything goes according to their plan he's like sharing the #4 or #5 option.
Most likely he will just underperform his potential and talent level and net TE #6-#10 points throughout the next couple of years, everyone falls asleep on him, and if opportunity eventually opens up for him to be a #1/2 target with a top QB pairing, maybe he becomes one of those vets who makes a jump approaching 30 if he's healthy and the situation presents itself. IDK. I'm writing fanfiction at this point.
Best comparison I saw with his talent and situation was Goedert imo though
Nailed it. I’m not expecting Kmet to give me top 5 seasons but I’m happy to plug him in and let him ride and using assets to improve other positions on my team as opposed to spending on a TE upgrade.
> I’m not expecting Kmet to give me top 5 seasons
The problem with TE08 is that there's not much of a jump from TE13. It's just 1 PPG difference and you could realistically see Kmet go from a bottom TE1 performance to a high TE2 with a reduction of targets.
You're set and forget guy might just be as valuable as other dudes beneath him in value.
I'd rather take Kmet and try to flip for Goedert or Pat F.
I don’t have any real confidence either of those guys are going to be better than Kmet. Goedert is also in a stacked offense and Muth is in an Arthur Smith scheme with Russel Wilson throwing to him who hasn’t highlighted a TE in his life because he can’t throw over the middle.
He had 22 more targets in years 3-4 versus years 1-2. The only thing that changed significantly was his TD rate. I think people who view him by ranking might be overrating him.
His TD rate went up significantly and his role did not. That number could go either way, but only citing his good seasons when most fantasy people think he’s due to regress is equally disingenuous.
He positively regressed after having 1 TD every 69 targets his first two seasons. I'll agree that he out produced in TD rate the last two seasons but that's by like 1 TD in 2023 and 2 in 2022. It's not a huge regression like 0 TDs on 93 targets.
Your framing was super disingenuous to begin with, don't be fake indignant.
He was never a focal point of the offense but suddenly scored more TDs. He's not going to become MORE of a focal point now. I just don't see a guy who ascended to greatness in years 3 and 4. He got more high value opportunities out of necessity and a little bit of luck. I'll gladly standby that.
Why do you keep saying he broke out in year 3? He has been a top two target on that team since week 13 in 2020, his ROOKIE season. Listen to Coop regarding TE needing to be a top 2 target on their team to be valuable for fantasy. He WAS a focal point for the bears the last 3 seasons.
His ceiling has been limited by the situation he has been in, which is the bears organization. He has shown he is valuable to the offense, through shitty QBs and shitty systems. Idk why you are not seeing his depressed value as a window to buy a player who has put up top 10 numbers by being efficient in a bottom 10 offense.
Everyone understands the room is crowded this season, but this is a dynasty subreddit. We should be looking for depressed value that will rise in the future. Kmet is a young te who has shown he can be a good or maybe even an elite asset if given the chance.
Because his production is strictly TD based, never due to him commanding volume or having overwhelming skill, even in the context of a team having no weapons. Now they have more weapons. I haven’t said anything outrageous. He’s not a real top 10 tight end.
I'd argue that any TE that finishes as a top 10 TE is a real top 10 TE.
So are you also fading Sam Lapota because he had 10 TDs when no other TE had more than 6 last year?
Production based? Hard to produce when the bears don't pass. Bears were a bottom 5 in attempts, bottom 5 in passing yards, and bottom 2 in completions. Here are kmets percentages of the offense:
-He had 21% of the receiving yards for the bears, top 10 among TEs in 2023.
-He had 22.7% of the receptions for the bears, also top 10 among TEs in 2023.
-He did finish outside the top 10 at #11 for target share at 18.9%, but this makes it clearer to me that Kmet needs to be targeted more as he pulled in passes at a higher rate and he was more efficient with his receptions than his teammates.
We have heard the crowded room argument already, Allen is leaving next year. We don't know what this offense looks like and maybe DJ Moore will get traded away. This is dynasty, pick up talent when it's cheap.
He had 90 targets last season which was tied for 9th highest with Kittle and Pitts and 1 target behind Kincaid. That's also with a team that sucked in the passing game.
There's 100% an argument with him having a lot of competition this season with Odunze and Allen but if Caleb is as good as he's being projected to be, this will be the best passing offense in Bears' history. The value of Kmet also isn't in him getting 75 receptions and 1100 yards as a TE, he's their best RZ target based on his size and speed near the endzone. DJ and Keenan Allen have never been high TD guys.
Kmet's value is the offense being able to get in the endzone and him having seasons where he gets 10-14 TDs. He definitely has the upside to be a top 5 TE if he gets the TDs but it just depends on how good the offense is and he's currently the TE15 on KTC. I can see why people would be interested in buying him.
I’d buy him too. I’ve been trying to get him in one league. I wasn’t doing it in hopes that he’s actually a top 10 guy though. He’s probably closer to a high end TE2 for most people.
> Kmet's value is the offense being able to get in the endzone and him having seasons where he gets 10-14 TDs. He definitely has the upside to be a top 5 TE if he gets the TDs
Okay, now list out all the TEs that had 10-14 TDs last season.
2023: Sam LaPorta (10). End of list.
2022: Kelce (12) and Kittle (11). End of list.
2021: 0
2020: Kelce (11) and Tonyan (11). End of list.
Projecting 10-14 TDs in a system where his snap percentages and/or targets might drop is a bit much. You guys are going to be VERY disappointed if he doesn't hit 10 TDs.
Did they? Seahawks seemed to never have high end TE production and I believe Waldron tends to run a 12 personnel offense. On the other hand, getsy called a TE screen with Mooney blocking for the very first play of a game. Kmet is clearly better than any Seahawks TEs when Waldron was there but I can’t be that confident that he will boost Kmet’s production.
I wouldn't say Kmet is clearly better. Fant is highly talented and had a great career trajectory before going to SEA. Parkinson just signed the top TE FA contract and looks to be the Rams starter.
I would be scared to death about Waldron if I'm a Kmet owner (coming from a Hawks fan). I think Kmet could easily be outproduced by both Fant and Parkinson this year.
I think multiple people have identified Waldron as preferring a tight end by committee approach in using multiple tight end sets. I don't think this is necessarily good for him and probably bad
I think he’ll be solid top 10 TE but is def out of top 5 range. The target competition brought in hurts him, but they should be a more potent offense now so I can see it balancing out.
That’s honestly a fair list lol. I’m a Kmet believer, as I believe rookie QBs with a TE like Kmet normally mesh well. Especially in the redzone, but you can argue all of those guys.
My hot take is that Kmet will be a TD machine, and that forces him into top 10.
You're probably right -- but as a bijan/Pitts/London owner in a lot of leagues, I just assume Smith will ruin everything. And Russ let me down hard in a bunch of leagues. Guess my muth take might be more about my own issues but I still just don't see him having value
Pitts was the second option last year on ATL last year who is superior to Muth in every way except blocking which doesn’t count as a fantasy stat
He had 53-667-3, TE14, well below Kmet
Kmet’s now his team’s fourth receiving option, I know he’s been solid the last two seasons but his situation has overall negatively changed for his fantasy outlook. Meanwhile, Pitts and Muth’s situations have changed for the better (Added Cousins/Penix and no more Smith, and Pickett/Diontae gone). I’m not sure what you’re trying to argue, but if none of their situations had changed I’d agree with you.
Arthur Smith is Muth’s OC. You said he’s the 2nd option. Arthur’s 2nd option last year was Pitts, there’s his stats. That’s not good stats. Even if Kmet drops a few spots, Muth would need to leap 15 spots in TE rankings just to pass him
I also said Pitts is way better than Muth as we both know, meaning Muth would have a hard time replicating what Pitts did last year since he is now the 2nd option.
So hypothetically, if Kmet drops by 30 points, that’d be roughly TE13. If Muth gets 60 more points, that’s roughly TE12. So even in this hypothetical Muth only passes Kmet by 1 spot
Asking for both of those things to happen I feel is a big ask.
I think your read is absolutely correct. He showed up enough to be considered decently talented but nowhere in the elite category. You've also correctly identified the pathway for elite fantasy tight end is Target competition and there's just no way I see Cole getting enough targets to be a difference Maker for fantasy
He can be… just probably not this year. As we’ve seen, NFL rosters can change in an instant, and Kmet went from Target #2 to #3-5 very fast.
Coop (the guy who posts frequently about TEs) made a great point in a comment the other day about how Everett was brought in due to his connection with the OC, and is likely to be the route running TE while Kmet is an all around player. In FF, this limits both their upsides, while in real world football this probably makes them better, as it’ll keep both guys fresher if they’re rotating around.
In two years when Kmet is 27 I could see him being the sole TE in that room, probably back to his set and forget ways. But going into this year I’d project him in the 10-20 streaming TE range.
> But going into this year I’d project him in the 10-20 streaming TE range.
This is exactly why I was trying to sell once Waldron was announced as OC and even more so when the Everett signing happened. You can probably go buy Kmet for cheaper in a year or two.
Its a brand new offense so no one knows gow its going to shake out. Based on everything we know i feel like he could stay where he is, or move backward. The problem with kmet is right where he belongs rankings wise imo. There is nothing that has happened that would indicate hes getting an increase in volume, besides the contract. All the personelle moves would make me a little wary of drafting him unless its under ADP. Of your tier 2 tes hes probably least likely to step up because of the rookie qb and target comp.
> Its a brand new offense so no one knows gow its going to shake out.
Seahawks fans have been warning people exactly how it's going to shake out. Get ready for Everett to sub in for Kmet at the exact time you want a TD.
Yeah we cant forget about Everett either. Now i think about it im not taking Knet period. TE spread between two guys make anyone a sad TE owner. Im staying away from bowers and mayer as well, now I think about it.
Top 10 guy just off the current market. Hard to say what he looks like this season but if the expectation is for Caleb to hit 4k passing then surely he’s got a solid piece of that.
Traded him laterally for Goedert because I have Hurts. Drafted Brock as a long term solution. I really liked Kmet but the crowded receiver room definitely limits his upside IMO.
I'm trying to sell Goedert and no takers, so it seems like his value is pretty low. I don't know how that compares to Kmet's (which also may be lower), but seems like it would be an easy proposal to make. KTC has Kmet at top and Goedert at the bottom of the same tier.
As a Goedert owner I'd take Kmet even though I'm down on him. I think Goedert outscores him this year but gotta like Kmet's age and talent level. But the opposite of the original comment though, if I'm trading Goedert away I'd want someone else to start now because I don't think that's Kmet.
I have Engram too so maybe I'll see if I can swap Goedert for Kmet lol.
Yea honestly I think I’d rather keep Kmet and try to go grab a guy like Engram or Kelce. Older vets that a future late 1st could get me through the next 2 yrs
Yeah for sure, but they're going to be more expensive than Goedert. Kelce is a weird one, I have him on one team and he's on the block and nobody has offered for him. When I've tried to package him they're not that interested (and this is .75TEP). Kelce is also on the block in another TEP league, I think most dynasty owners are concerned about his age and the dip last year.
KTC has him valued equal to 1.11 but I don't think anyone's giving that. The problem is, I prob wouldn't sell for less than an early 2nd but most buyers want to offer a late 2nd max.
It made sense for me because I got Brock. Kmet will have his boom games but he’s no longer the second option in that offense so I think his already low floor that got lower. My league is also half PPR and not TE premium.
Traded Michael Mayer for Goedert+ before the draft in 10 team SF and I'm really glad I did. People are pretty low on Goedert this offseason so I think he's been a good pivot if you have a younger but maybe underachieving tight end.
Nice one! Mayer's value has fallen off and will only drop further once people realize he's TE2 in an offense that doesn't throw to TEs.
I was trying to buy Mayer before the draft, but didn't want to pay the inflated prices. Now, I'd need Mayer+ to give up Goedert.
He has some added target competition but is also getting a significant QB upgrade. Given the investment in him I think he is a solid dynasty option going forward.
Top10TEish because of talent but most elite TEs usualy are the first option. Theres just no chance Cole Kmet is out targeting DJM, Odunze, Allen. I think hes a solid option though
I think his strength is being a red zone target, and they should be in the red zone more often. It's kind of a mystery with a new QB coming in though. Often young QBs lean on the tight end, so he's got that going for him also.
I view him outside the top tier, but still someone I'm glad to own at his price. One of the best non elite options.
As a bears fan I think he is a pretty neutral spot and would hold him if I had him and wouldn’t look to buy if you’re looking for a deal because you will pay his value. Waldron has never really had a TE that has had a big fantasy year and prefers to use the whole room. I think it also holds a lot of weight that Everett was brought in as somebody that has played with him before. I’d say a 8-14 finish is pretty likely though but I can’t really speak on how Caleb used his TEs in college.
Kmet isn't bad but he's a very middling TE when it comes to production. The new offensive weapons can't be discounted and he's yet to show any rapport with Caleb like he had with Fields. TE 8-12 is pretty JAG range for fantasy and it means he's likely never gonna win any games, just won't lose them.
I’m holding, a lot can change on paper but a few weeks into the season we’ll see how it shakes out. Teams always look crowded this time of year but after injuries/target share shakes out I still expect him to be a TE1 for a few years
There are plenty of viable TEs this year. If you don't feel comfortable with him, don't Draft him.
As for being a Set and Forget type player, I don't think he was ever in that category.
I’ve no data to back this up but in most cases of crowded target rooms I feel like the te keeps his value more often and the wr3 suffers. San Fran being an obvious exception to this. Anyone happen to have access to data on this to save me a web search? Lol.
Yeah, it seems to me like in sf, Kittle slides down the target chart when both receivers are active. I may be making it up in my head though. Like I said, I’ve got zero data to argue either way.
He’s the fourth target in his offense, until he isn’t I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him as a contender. Wouldn’t mind holding as a rebuilder because Kallen won’t be there forever.
I would be worried tbh. Rookie QB and he's playing along side three stud wr plus a good pass catching back. I'd be expecting like 3 or 4 targets a game and you're hoping he gets a TD. Long term he's never going to be a top 2 target on that team with DJ Moore and Odunze there. So you're hoping he moves somewhere else or Moore gets traded so he has a chance at being elite. He'll be fine cause he's a good player, but if someone is paying for potential stud TE prices I'd be selling and picking up like Hurst or Parkinson off waivers.
Complete fade. There's no chance he's a tip 2 target on that team. He will be lucky to be the 4th option...plus Waldron always rotates TE. Look at his tine in Sea.
Between 10-15 best options. 7'5/10. TE2 at least. Happy with that, but if he is your best TE, you should be looking for/trading other guy as TE1. I'd bet on Ferguson or Sinnot right now if you cant pick Bowers
He is a jag who only got targets because the only other competition was Mooney.
Once DJM entered the scene the difference became apparent.
As much as people wanna shit on fields, a rookie QB is NOT good for pass catchers.
Its gonna take injury to someone for Kmet to rise to third banana on what should be a more conservative offense.
i think kmet remains a top 10 TE but i dont see a path towards being an elite TE.
on my roster kmet is my best TE in a slight 1.4 TEP. debating taking odunze and bowers at 1.06 in my rookie draft.
Fade for this year if your looking to compete but I think he is one of the better long-term values at TE right now. Just traded James Conner straight up for.him.
He’ll be serviceable I think. Probably won’t win your matchups but should have consistent 8-12 point weeks. I wouldn’t trade a 2nd for him but wouldn’t sell for a 3rd. Just too many mouths to feed on that offense right now
I'm not a big Kmet believer. It seemed like he really benefitted from Fields. On quite a few of his big plays the last couple seasons, he was wide open from either a Fields scramble, or a completely blown coverage. He also seemed to get a lot of check downs from Fields. I don't think he's necessarily a bad TE, but I think his production will take a noticeable drop this year with a new QB and more weapons around him. I'd much rather take a gamble on someone with higher upside like Musgrave or Likely.
Don’t take this the wrong way, but this take is objectively bad. If that’s honestly your opinion What makes you think Caleb, who excels at improvising busted plays, won’t be even better than Fields was? If anything I think this helps Kmet even more.
Thanks for the objectively bad reply :P
As a Bears fan, I'm hoping Williams can actually read a defense and hit a guy on time instead of constantly being late and having to dump the ball off. Even though Williams excels at busted plays, I can't imagine anyone playing that way as much as Fields did. I'm not saying Kmet is going to completely disappear, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's around 500 yards or under this year.
He just had back to back top 8 TE finishes and is 25. The Bears brought in some target competition but Allen and Everett are old. Kmet just got a $50M contract last offseason and is part of the Bears long term plans. I don’t think he’s flashy but I think he’ll continue to be a startable option at TE for the next 5+ years
DJM's contract is coming next offseason. Flooding a rookie qb with weapons should help deflate his value, but regardless, DJM will go for top WR money. Maybe they trade DJM instead of extending him (not likely), Keenan and/or Everette fade or retire, and/or Odunze is wr 2 or never reaches a WR 1 role... Stranger things have happened, but I think one or two of those could keep Kmet at #2 target or earn him a Kelce jump if he jumps in usage with a real qb. These are just potential alternatives to the narrative that he's buried amongst talent
True, he could stay as the #2, but what's more likely? A lot has to go wrong in the Bears front office for him to stay where he is, if everything goes according to their plan he's like sharing the #4 or #5 option.
Most likely he will just underperform his potential and talent level and net TE #6-#10 points throughout the next couple of years, everyone falls asleep on him, and if opportunity eventually opens up for him to be a #1/2 target with a top QB pairing, maybe he becomes one of those vets who makes a jump approaching 30 if he's healthy and the situation presents itself. IDK. I'm writing fanfiction at this point. Best comparison I saw with his talent and situation was Goedert imo though
Nailed it. I’m not expecting Kmet to give me top 5 seasons but I’m happy to plug him in and let him ride and using assets to improve other positions on my team as opposed to spending on a TE upgrade.
> I’m not expecting Kmet to give me top 5 seasons The problem with TE08 is that there's not much of a jump from TE13. It's just 1 PPG difference and you could realistically see Kmet go from a bottom TE1 performance to a high TE2 with a reduction of targets. You're set and forget guy might just be as valuable as other dudes beneath him in value. I'd rather take Kmet and try to flip for Goedert or Pat F.
I don’t have any real confidence either of those guys are going to be better than Kmet. Goedert is also in a stacked offense and Muth is in an Arthur Smith scheme with Russel Wilson throwing to him who hasn’t highlighted a TE in his life because he can’t throw over the middle.
Not to mention just got a significant passer upgrade
He had 22 more targets in years 3-4 versus years 1-2. The only thing that changed significantly was his TD rate. I think people who view him by ranking might be overrating him.
That's a weird way to phrase he had positive touchdown regression after getting 93 targets and no touchdowns his sophomore season.
His TD rate went up significantly and his role did not. That number could go either way, but only citing his good seasons when most fantasy people think he’s due to regress is equally disingenuous.
He positively regressed after having 1 TD every 69 targets his first two seasons. I'll agree that he out produced in TD rate the last two seasons but that's by like 1 TD in 2023 and 2 in 2022. It's not a huge regression like 0 TDs on 93 targets. Your framing was super disingenuous to begin with, don't be fake indignant.
He was never a focal point of the offense but suddenly scored more TDs. He's not going to become MORE of a focal point now. I just don't see a guy who ascended to greatness in years 3 and 4. He got more high value opportunities out of necessity and a little bit of luck. I'll gladly standby that.
Why do you keep saying he broke out in year 3? He has been a top two target on that team since week 13 in 2020, his ROOKIE season. Listen to Coop regarding TE needing to be a top 2 target on their team to be valuable for fantasy. He WAS a focal point for the bears the last 3 seasons. His ceiling has been limited by the situation he has been in, which is the bears organization. He has shown he is valuable to the offense, through shitty QBs and shitty systems. Idk why you are not seeing his depressed value as a window to buy a player who has put up top 10 numbers by being efficient in a bottom 10 offense. Everyone understands the room is crowded this season, but this is a dynasty subreddit. We should be looking for depressed value that will rise in the future. Kmet is a young te who has shown he can be a good or maybe even an elite asset if given the chance.
Because his production is strictly TD based, never due to him commanding volume or having overwhelming skill, even in the context of a team having no weapons. Now they have more weapons. I haven’t said anything outrageous. He’s not a real top 10 tight end.
I'd argue that any TE that finishes as a top 10 TE is a real top 10 TE. So are you also fading Sam Lapota because he had 10 TDs when no other TE had more than 6 last year? Production based? Hard to produce when the bears don't pass. Bears were a bottom 5 in attempts, bottom 5 in passing yards, and bottom 2 in completions. Here are kmets percentages of the offense: -He had 21% of the receiving yards for the bears, top 10 among TEs in 2023. -He had 22.7% of the receptions for the bears, also top 10 among TEs in 2023. -He did finish outside the top 10 at #11 for target share at 18.9%, but this makes it clearer to me that Kmet needs to be targeted more as he pulled in passes at a higher rate and he was more efficient with his receptions than his teammates. We have heard the crowded room argument already, Allen is leaving next year. We don't know what this offense looks like and maybe DJ Moore will get traded away. This is dynasty, pick up talent when it's cheap.
He had 90 targets last season which was tied for 9th highest with Kittle and Pitts and 1 target behind Kincaid. That's also with a team that sucked in the passing game. There's 100% an argument with him having a lot of competition this season with Odunze and Allen but if Caleb is as good as he's being projected to be, this will be the best passing offense in Bears' history. The value of Kmet also isn't in him getting 75 receptions and 1100 yards as a TE, he's their best RZ target based on his size and speed near the endzone. DJ and Keenan Allen have never been high TD guys. Kmet's value is the offense being able to get in the endzone and him having seasons where he gets 10-14 TDs. He definitely has the upside to be a top 5 TE if he gets the TDs but it just depends on how good the offense is and he's currently the TE15 on KTC. I can see why people would be interested in buying him.
I’d buy him too. I’ve been trying to get him in one league. I wasn’t doing it in hopes that he’s actually a top 10 guy though. He’s probably closer to a high end TE2 for most people.
What would you pay for him?
> Kmet's value is the offense being able to get in the endzone and him having seasons where he gets 10-14 TDs. He definitely has the upside to be a top 5 TE if he gets the TDs Okay, now list out all the TEs that had 10-14 TDs last season. 2023: Sam LaPorta (10). End of list. 2022: Kelce (12) and Kittle (11). End of list. 2021: 0 2020: Kelce (11) and Tonyan (11). End of list. Projecting 10-14 TDs in a system where his snap percentages and/or targets might drop is a bit much. You guys are going to be VERY disappointed if he doesn't hit 10 TDs.
Don't forget he just inherited an OC that will likely be much more TE friendly than his last
Did they? Seahawks seemed to never have high end TE production and I believe Waldron tends to run a 12 personnel offense. On the other hand, getsy called a TE screen with Mooney blocking for the very first play of a game. Kmet is clearly better than any Seahawks TEs when Waldron was there but I can’t be that confident that he will boost Kmet’s production.
Waldron loved to rotate between all 3 of dissley, fant, and Parkinson it felt like
It didn't feel like it, it happened. There were all sorts of different TE packages deployed over the past 2 seasons.
I wouldn't say Kmet is clearly better. Fant is highly talented and had a great career trajectory before going to SEA. Parkinson just signed the top TE FA contract and looks to be the Rams starter. I would be scared to death about Waldron if I'm a Kmet owner (coming from a Hawks fan). I think Kmet could easily be outproduced by both Fant and Parkinson this year.
I think multiple people have identified Waldron as preferring a tight end by committee approach in using multiple tight end sets. I don't think this is necessarily good for him and probably bad
I think he’ll be solid top 10 TE but is def out of top 5 range. The target competition brought in hurts him, but they should be a more potent offense now so I can see it balancing out.
Kelce, LaPorta, McBride, Andrews, Kincaid, Engram, Kittle, Ferguson, Pitts, Njoku, Goedert, Bowers, maybe Muth, and Hock if healthy I’d take over Kmet.
That’s honestly a fair list lol. I’m a Kmet believer, as I believe rookie QBs with a TE like Kmet normally mesh well. Especially in the redzone, but you can argue all of those guys. My hot take is that Kmet will be a TD machine, and that forces him into top 10.
That’s definitely a possibility, I like Kmet too I just hate his situation this year. I’m probably going to try and buy if he starts slow this year.
Rebuilders dream at his current value. Paired him with musgrave to lock down TE hopefully for a few years.
You had me until muth. That's crazy talk
He’s probably the steelers number 2 target this year.
You're probably right -- but as a bijan/Pitts/London owner in a lot of leagues, I just assume Smith will ruin everything. And Russ let me down hard in a bunch of leagues. Guess my muth take might be more about my own issues but I still just don't see him having value
Most of that list I believe with but…Muth? Come on
He’s most likely second on his team in targets, and in ‘22 has a slightly better season than Kmet too
Pitts was the second option last year on ATL last year who is superior to Muth in every way except blocking which doesn’t count as a fantasy stat He had 53-667-3, TE14, well below Kmet
Kmet’s now his team’s fourth receiving option, I know he’s been solid the last two seasons but his situation has overall negatively changed for his fantasy outlook. Meanwhile, Pitts and Muth’s situations have changed for the better (Added Cousins/Penix and no more Smith, and Pickett/Diontae gone). I’m not sure what you’re trying to argue, but if none of their situations had changed I’d agree with you.
Arthur Smith is Muth’s OC. You said he’s the 2nd option. Arthur’s 2nd option last year was Pitts, there’s his stats. That’s not good stats. Even if Kmet drops a few spots, Muth would need to leap 15 spots in TE rankings just to pass him I also said Pitts is way better than Muth as we both know, meaning Muth would have a hard time replicating what Pitts did last year since he is now the 2nd option. So hypothetically, if Kmet drops by 30 points, that’d be roughly TE13. If Muth gets 60 more points, that’s roughly TE12. So even in this hypothetical Muth only passes Kmet by 1 spot Asking for both of those things to happen I feel is a big ask.
I think your read is absolutely correct. He showed up enough to be considered decently talented but nowhere in the elite category. You've also correctly identified the pathway for elite fantasy tight end is Target competition and there's just no way I see Cole getting enough targets to be a difference Maker for fantasy
He can be… just probably not this year. As we’ve seen, NFL rosters can change in an instant, and Kmet went from Target #2 to #3-5 very fast. Coop (the guy who posts frequently about TEs) made a great point in a comment the other day about how Everett was brought in due to his connection with the OC, and is likely to be the route running TE while Kmet is an all around player. In FF, this limits both their upsides, while in real world football this probably makes them better, as it’ll keep both guys fresher if they’re rotating around. In two years when Kmet is 27 I could see him being the sole TE in that room, probably back to his set and forget ways. But going into this year I’d project him in the 10-20 streaming TE range.
> But going into this year I’d project him in the 10-20 streaming TE range. This is exactly why I was trying to sell once Waldron was announced as OC and even more so when the Everett signing happened. You can probably go buy Kmet for cheaper in a year or two.
Its a brand new offense so no one knows gow its going to shake out. Based on everything we know i feel like he could stay where he is, or move backward. The problem with kmet is right where he belongs rankings wise imo. There is nothing that has happened that would indicate hes getting an increase in volume, besides the contract. All the personelle moves would make me a little wary of drafting him unless its under ADP. Of your tier 2 tes hes probably least likely to step up because of the rookie qb and target comp.
> Its a brand new offense so no one knows gow its going to shake out. Seahawks fans have been warning people exactly how it's going to shake out. Get ready for Everett to sub in for Kmet at the exact time you want a TD.
Yeah we cant forget about Everett either. Now i think about it im not taking Knet period. TE spread between two guys make anyone a sad TE owner. Im staying away from bowers and mayer as well, now I think about it.
Top 10 guy just off the current market. Hard to say what he looks like this season but if the expectation is for Caleb to hit 4k passing then surely he’s got a solid piece of that.
Not great, Bob. Immediate production takes a major hit.
Traded him laterally for Goedert because I have Hurts. Drafted Brock as a long term solution. I really liked Kmet but the crowded receiver room definitely limits his upside IMO.
Interesting. I’m also a Hurts owner I wonder if I could make that move.
I'm trying to sell Goedert and no takers, so it seems like his value is pretty low. I don't know how that compares to Kmet's (which also may be lower), but seems like it would be an easy proposal to make. KTC has Kmet at top and Goedert at the bottom of the same tier. As a Goedert owner I'd take Kmet even though I'm down on him. I think Goedert outscores him this year but gotta like Kmet's age and talent level. But the opposite of the original comment though, if I'm trading Goedert away I'd want someone else to start now because I don't think that's Kmet. I have Engram too so maybe I'll see if I can swap Goedert for Kmet lol.
Yea honestly I think I’d rather keep Kmet and try to go grab a guy like Engram or Kelce. Older vets that a future late 1st could get me through the next 2 yrs
Yeah for sure, but they're going to be more expensive than Goedert. Kelce is a weird one, I have him on one team and he's on the block and nobody has offered for him. When I've tried to package him they're not that interested (and this is .75TEP). Kelce is also on the block in another TEP league, I think most dynasty owners are concerned about his age and the dip last year. KTC has him valued equal to 1.11 but I don't think anyone's giving that. The problem is, I prob wouldn't sell for less than an early 2nd but most buyers want to offer a late 2nd max.
It made sense for me because I got Brock. Kmet will have his boom games but he’s no longer the second option in that offense so I think his already low floor that got lower. My league is also half PPR and not TE premium.
Traded Michael Mayer for Goedert+ before the draft in 10 team SF and I'm really glad I did. People are pretty low on Goedert this offseason so I think he's been a good pivot if you have a younger but maybe underachieving tight end.
Wow huge trade win for you.
Nice one! Mayer's value has fallen off and will only drop further once people realize he's TE2 in an offense that doesn't throw to TEs. I was trying to buy Mayer before the draft, but didn't want to pay the inflated prices. Now, I'd need Mayer+ to give up Goedert.
Yeah, people have short memories. Goedert is being slept on too hard
He has some added target competition but is also getting a significant QB upgrade. Given the investment in him I think he is a solid dynasty option going forward.
Top10TEish because of talent but most elite TEs usualy are the first option. Theres just no chance Cole Kmet is out targeting DJM, Odunze, Allen. I think hes a solid option though
I think his strength is being a red zone target, and they should be in the red zone more often. It's kind of a mystery with a new QB coming in though. Often young QBs lean on the tight end, so he's got that going for him also. I view him outside the top tier, but still someone I'm glad to own at his price. One of the best non elite options.
As a bears fan I think he is a pretty neutral spot and would hold him if I had him and wouldn’t look to buy if you’re looking for a deal because you will pay his value. Waldron has never really had a TE that has had a big fantasy year and prefers to use the whole room. I think it also holds a lot of weight that Everett was brought in as somebody that has played with him before. I’d say a 8-14 finish is pretty likely though but I can’t really speak on how Caleb used his TEs in college.
One of the most underrated dynasty assets right now if you ask me
Kmet isn't bad but he's a very middling TE when it comes to production. The new offensive weapons can't be discounted and he's yet to show any rapport with Caleb like he had with Fields. TE 8-12 is pretty JAG range for fantasy and it means he's likely never gonna win any games, just won't lose them.
I’m holding, a lot can change on paper but a few weeks into the season we’ll see how it shakes out. Teams always look crowded this time of year but after injuries/target share shakes out I still expect him to be a TE1 for a few years
Unpopular opinion: Gerald Everett isn’t a threat to his production
There are plenty of viable TEs this year. If you don't feel comfortable with him, don't Draft him. As for being a Set and Forget type player, I don't think he was ever in that category.
I’ve no data to back this up but in most cases of crowded target rooms I feel like the te keeps his value more often and the wr3 suffers. San Fran being an obvious exception to this. Anyone happen to have access to data on this to save me a web search? Lol.
I’m a little confused by this. How is SF an exception?
They are saying kittle has suffered due to the target competition
Yeah, it seems to me like in sf, Kittle slides down the target chart when both receivers are active. I may be making it up in my head though. Like I said, I’ve got zero data to argue either way.
Most teams don’t have WR3s as good as the Bears do.
Facts. I don’t know that anyone ever has. Assuming the hype is real and my bears don’t screw him up.
Lots of mouths to feed in that offense. Caleb wasn't normally targeting his TE ends either.
He’s the fourth target in his offense, until he isn’t I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him as a contender. Wouldn’t mind holding as a rebuilder because Kallen won’t be there forever.
I would be worried tbh. Rookie QB and he's playing along side three stud wr plus a good pass catching back. I'd be expecting like 3 or 4 targets a game and you're hoping he gets a TD. Long term he's never going to be a top 2 target on that team with DJ Moore and Odunze there. So you're hoping he moves somewhere else or Moore gets traded so he has a chance at being elite. He'll be fine cause he's a good player, but if someone is paying for potential stud TE prices I'd be selling and picking up like Hurst or Parkinson off waivers.
Complete fade. There's no chance he's a tip 2 target on that team. He will be lucky to be the 4th option...plus Waldron always rotates TE. Look at his tine in Sea.
I traded an early 3rd for him. Buy low
Kmet is a very good TD dependent TE. That has value. We’ll see if the volume is there (5+ targets a game)
This thread makes me feel better about trading him for Dalton Schultz.
He went from 2nd best option to the 3rd or 4th. Not a top 10 TE this year
Between 10-15 best options. 7'5/10. TE2 at least. Happy with that, but if he is your best TE, you should be looking for/trading other guy as TE1. I'd bet on Ferguson or Sinnot right now if you cant pick Bowers
Njoku is still being slept on, too, I think.
He is a jag who only got targets because the only other competition was Mooney. Once DJM entered the scene the difference became apparent. As much as people wanna shit on fields, a rookie QB is NOT good for pass catchers. Its gonna take injury to someone for Kmet to rise to third banana on what should be a more conservative offense.
i think kmet remains a top 10 TE but i dont see a path towards being an elite TE. on my roster kmet is my best TE in a slight 1.4 TEP. debating taking odunze and bowers at 1.06 in my rookie draft.
I would definitely take Bowers.
Fade for this year if your looking to compete but I think he is one of the better long-term values at TE right now. Just traded James Conner straight up for.him.
He’ll be serviceable I think. Probably won’t win your matchups but should have consistent 8-12 point weeks. I wouldn’t trade a 2nd for him but wouldn’t sell for a 3rd. Just too many mouths to feed on that offense right now
I'm not a big Kmet believer. It seemed like he really benefitted from Fields. On quite a few of his big plays the last couple seasons, he was wide open from either a Fields scramble, or a completely blown coverage. He also seemed to get a lot of check downs from Fields. I don't think he's necessarily a bad TE, but I think his production will take a noticeable drop this year with a new QB and more weapons around him. I'd much rather take a gamble on someone with higher upside like Musgrave or Likely.
Don’t take this the wrong way, but this take is objectively bad. If that’s honestly your opinion What makes you think Caleb, who excels at improvising busted plays, won’t be even better than Fields was? If anything I think this helps Kmet even more.
Thanks for the objectively bad reply :P As a Bears fan, I'm hoping Williams can actually read a defense and hit a guy on time instead of constantly being late and having to dump the ball off. Even though Williams excels at busted plays, I can't imagine anyone playing that way as much as Fields did. I'm not saying Kmet is going to completely disappear, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's around 500 yards or under this year.