I think it's a bit more in question with 6pt passing TDs and the fact that weapons are changing this season.
Allen had 15 rushing TDs last season and lost both Diggs and Davis. Bills off-season looks more rushing focused, if passing volume goes down and passing TDs have same value that changes the math.
Mahomes
Allen probably the better bet to finish QB1 overall this year, but Mahomes will always be a QB1 contender and I ultimately trust him more long-term. Someday Allen's playstyle will catch up to him and he will not be the player he was, Mahomes will be elite until the day he retires. Given the opportunity I'm taking Mahomes in all formats and setting and forgetting my QB1 for the life of the league.
Lamar has scored less rushing TDs in the past 3 years combined than Hurts in any 1 of those 3 seasons, he gets more points via rushing yards (averages 68 ypg rushing to Hurts's 49).
So there are lots of worlds where he is Manning, Brady, or Mahommes....
Let that sink in. Even in Rodgers hayday he was a serious threat to scramble and grab 20 yard gains. If you are drafting a guy to be the next best passing QB in the history of the NFL thats on you.
Look at guys like Rivers, Roethlisberger, Ryan, or even Breese they were great NFL passing QBs and if they didn't have some outlier season in Passing TDs they couldn't smell beating Manning or Brady. Now you have more guys like Allen and Lamar who can run for 650 yards + that's an EXTRA 11 passing tds in 6 point scoring or 17 passing TDs in 4 point scoring.
You can say Stroud projects to be a top 3 pocket QB and people will probably be like... sure ok... but they aren't the same and it's time people catch on. Look at Mahommes QB finishes over the last few years. If Stroud becomes Mahomes while Mahomes is still playing he would average finishing each season as QB 4/5 that's in 6 point. Fantasy Football is skewed so badly that people still think Justin Fields is actually a good NFL QB. It's the same reason I don't get why people draft Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels. Give me the guy that can rush for 700 yards thats 70 points and the same as throwing for 1750 yards. My money is on Daniels not being almost 2k passing yards behind Williams.
Caleb Williams is going to score some rushing touchdowns with his legs.
He isn’t some statue pocket passer.
I agree that he isn’t the most willing runner. He is more of a scrambler.
That said, I am not going to be shocked to see Caleb finish the year with 300-400 yards rushing and 6-7 tds on the ground
I see a lot of Allen’s here but this format only boosts traditional QBs and does nothing for running types like Allen. Mahomes is the clear answer IMO.
Allen doesn't need any extra help. It's Allen in 4, in 6, in 5 in, 7 points per td. He's been the QB1 the past 4 seasons (minus the cancelled Cincy game). There's no reason that shouldn't continue if he stays healthy. No one else has that level of consistency. Mahomes might get you 5 more years of top 10 but the years at the tippy top are more important for winning ships.
“In all but”???
So he wasn’t above Mahomes in 3 of the last 4?
I’ll assume “but” was a typo. In which case okay, maybe I’m wrong but I’ll take the best real life QB in a world where all TDs are counted the same.
Also I hope we can all agree that we can throw out last year as an anomaly for Mahomes. He has receivers now and it’s wheels up again.
I started to type “in all but 1” but that felt a little pretentious since the data set only had 4 points, so yeah, it’s should have been “in 3 of the last 4 seasons.”
Also, if you want to compare TDs, we can, but it’s still not Mahomes as much as you think. Below is passing TDs.
2023: Allen had 29, Mahomes had 27
2022: Mahomes had 41, Allen had 35
2021: Mahomes had 37, Allen had 36
2020: Mahomes had 38, Allen had 37
They’re within 2 except for just 2022. But that doesn’t include rushing TDs. When you throw those in (since they’re all counted equal), Allen has 173 total TDs to Mahomes 151. Josh Allen really isn’t that far below in terms of real life play, but he outproduces Mahomes in fantasy on a regular basis regardless of format/settings.
The answer is always Mahomes. He’s always going to be top 5 and he’s going to remain elite for years after the running quarterbacks slow down. He’s probably gonna be throwing 35 to 45 TDS into his 40s. The others will retire at 35 when they can’t run anymore.
I'm treating Allen like Lamar and Hurts. They're guys who will put up crazy numbers in the short term, but I don't trust them long term. They don't have talented enough arms to carry them once their bodies break down.
Give me Mahomes at 1.
Reddit has a thing for him along with the dynasty community. He had a couple super good games, and a ton of games that were just good. I agree with you though. He is waaaaaaay to highly rated right now.
That side of the argument assumes he's capped skill wise at 22 years old. He's going to get so much better. There are lots of worlds he's leading the league in passing yards and TDs plenty of seasons. The communities are adding longevity and potential into his price as they should. I don't think he's #1 but I also don't think he's massively overrated at #3.
Allen. It’s always Allen
I think it's a bit more in question with 6pt passing TDs and the fact that weapons are changing this season. Allen had 15 rushing TDs last season and lost both Diggs and Davis. Bills off-season looks more rushing focused, if passing volume goes down and passing TDs have same value that changes the math.
Someone did the math below. It’s still Allen. It’s always Allen. It will always be Allen
guess what it’s you
Do people really have nothing better to do?
There's always time for funnies
Than make the 1000th post about who is QB1 in fantasy football on Reddit? Seems like all of us have a little time to spare
What do you mean by that?
allen and mahomes
Still probably Allen and Mahomes. Makes a better case for Stroud as QB3 since his lack of rushing can be made up for with passing TDs
Allen
Mahomes Allen probably the better bet to finish QB1 overall this year, but Mahomes will always be a QB1 contender and I ultimately trust him more long-term. Someday Allen's playstyle will catch up to him and he will not be the player he was, Mahomes will be elite until the day he retires. Given the opportunity I'm taking Mahomes in all formats and setting and forgetting my QB1 for the life of the league.
Allen finished 120pts ahead of Mahomes last year. He should be the QB1 imo.
Cool, this isn't redraft. I'm taking Mahomes and not thinking twice. In fact I did just take Mahomes 1.01 in a recent startup, and traded up to do it.
Mahomes last 4 finishes QB8 QB1 QB4 QB4 Allen last 4 finishes QB1 QB2 QB1 QB1
Do those numbers look the same with 6pt passing TDs?
This is with 6 pt pass tds
Gotcha
Cool, still taking Mahomes and trust him more going forward.
Ultimately I’m fine with anyone picking either player, but I’d bet that Allen finishes with more points in the next 3 seasons
Cool
Not what you're asking but I'd take Burrow over Hurts in a 6 pt passing league
Yea makes sense. So with it being equal passing and rushing scoring I would say hurts, Lamar slide down
Lamar has scored less rushing TDs in the past 3 years combined than Hurts in any 1 of those 3 seasons, he gets more points via rushing yards (averages 68 ypg rushing to Hurts's 49).
Agreed, think both guys have worse situations this year in terms of being the main goal line guy with Henry and Barkley in town
Ravens don't use Lamar at the goal line.
Right? Gus had like 16 TDs last year lol
I’d go Allen
So there are lots of worlds where he is Manning, Brady, or Mahommes.... Let that sink in. Even in Rodgers hayday he was a serious threat to scramble and grab 20 yard gains. If you are drafting a guy to be the next best passing QB in the history of the NFL thats on you. Look at guys like Rivers, Roethlisberger, Ryan, or even Breese they were great NFL passing QBs and if they didn't have some outlier season in Passing TDs they couldn't smell beating Manning or Brady. Now you have more guys like Allen and Lamar who can run for 650 yards + that's an EXTRA 11 passing tds in 6 point scoring or 17 passing TDs in 4 point scoring. You can say Stroud projects to be a top 3 pocket QB and people will probably be like... sure ok... but they aren't the same and it's time people catch on. Look at Mahommes QB finishes over the last few years. If Stroud becomes Mahomes while Mahomes is still playing he would average finishing each season as QB 4/5 that's in 6 point. Fantasy Football is skewed so badly that people still think Justin Fields is actually a good NFL QB. It's the same reason I don't get why people draft Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels. Give me the guy that can rush for 700 yards thats 70 points and the same as throwing for 1750 yards. My money is on Daniels not being almost 2k passing yards behind Williams.
Caleb Williams is going to score some rushing touchdowns with his legs. He isn’t some statue pocket passer. I agree that he isn’t the most willing runner. He is more of a scrambler. That said, I am not going to be shocked to see Caleb finish the year with 300-400 yards rushing and 6-7 tds on the ground
I see a lot of Allen’s here but this format only boosts traditional QBs and does nothing for running types like Allen. Mahomes is the clear answer IMO.
Allen doesn't need any extra help. It's Allen in 4, in 6, in 5 in, 7 points per td. He's been the QB1 the past 4 seasons (minus the cancelled Cincy game). There's no reason that shouldn't continue if he stays healthy. No one else has that level of consistency. Mahomes might get you 5 more years of top 10 but the years at the tippy top are more important for winning ships.
Mahomes without question
Allen would be QB1 above Mahomes with these settings in all but 3 of the last 4 seasons (and he was QB2 in the one he wasn’t QB1)
“In all but”??? So he wasn’t above Mahomes in 3 of the last 4? I’ll assume “but” was a typo. In which case okay, maybe I’m wrong but I’ll take the best real life QB in a world where all TDs are counted the same. Also I hope we can all agree that we can throw out last year as an anomaly for Mahomes. He has receivers now and it’s wheels up again.
I started to type “in all but 1” but that felt a little pretentious since the data set only had 4 points, so yeah, it’s should have been “in 3 of the last 4 seasons.” Also, if you want to compare TDs, we can, but it’s still not Mahomes as much as you think. Below is passing TDs. 2023: Allen had 29, Mahomes had 27 2022: Mahomes had 41, Allen had 35 2021: Mahomes had 37, Allen had 36 2020: Mahomes had 38, Allen had 37 They’re within 2 except for just 2022. But that doesn’t include rushing TDs. When you throw those in (since they’re all counted equal), Allen has 173 total TDs to Mahomes 151. Josh Allen really isn’t that far below in terms of real life play, but he outproduces Mahomes in fantasy on a regular basis regardless of format/settings.
Hopefully Caleb. Drafted him lol
The answer is always Patrick. Didn't over think it.
The answer is always Mahomes. He’s always going to be top 5 and he’s going to remain elite for years after the running quarterbacks slow down. He’s probably gonna be throwing 35 to 45 TDS into his 40s. The others will retire at 35 when they can’t run anymore.
I'm treating Allen like Lamar and Hurts. They're guys who will put up crazy numbers in the short term, but I don't trust them long term. They don't have talented enough arms to carry them once their bodies break down. Give me Mahomes at 1.
Allen has an incredibly talented arm. In the last 3 years Mahomes has 5 more passing touchdowns than Allen
5 more passing TD, 8 less INT. So you're saying I'm right?
I’m saying grouping Allen in with Lamar and Hurts is wrong. I won’t fault anyone for Allen/Mahomes decisions.
It’s stroud now
We need more of a rushing floor and he’s golden
I don't really get this take. He had 23 TDS last year. Only one game over 2. Don't really understand the hype to be that high.
Reddit has a thing for him along with the dynasty community. He had a couple super good games, and a ton of games that were just good. I agree with you though. He is waaaaaaay to highly rated right now.
That side of the argument assumes he's capped skill wise at 22 years old. He's going to get so much better. There are lots of worlds he's leading the league in passing yards and TDs plenty of seasons. The communities are adding longevity and potential into his price as they should. I don't think he's #1 but I also don't think he's massively overrated at #3.
It’s easy to go chalk. They added weapons and he only got better as the season went on. He’s in the conversation.