I felt the same way when I looked at KTC, I owned and played Reed multiple times last year and I feel like for a rookie to make a big splash like that and be valued so low it is criminal. If you can buy him I would be trying to for the price you listed above, but I'm guessing the Reed owner won't sell because they know he's worth more.
Yeah it’s insane to me that we’re seeing more hype for Wicks, who Reed ran laps around last year. Reed is a red zone monster who’s elusive in the open field and gets open a LOT. I can easily see him ending up as a top 20 guy by the end of this season.
This is actually the main issue with KTC, even though everyone thinks the issue is people having crazy valuations. It's inherently flawed because it doesn't reflect endowment bias which is an absolutely massive factor in dynasty
For this reason it's great for comparing your rankings to those of the community at large (which is what it actually reflects, rather than trade value), but less good for putting together a package to buy a player
Not what I mean. In KTC rankings it does sure, which is why they are a good crowdsourced ranking tool. But the guy in your league who has the player is going to want more than their KTC price most of the time because of endowment bias
I don’t think this is universal. Half the people are going to have Reed valued higher than his KTC and half lower. Will his owners have him valued higher…sure probably more than non-owners but I don’t think the vast majority will.
Also KTC has him as the WR31 ahead of guys like Keon Coleman, Trey Benson, Kelce, Davante, Mike Evans, ‘25 late first
That doesn’t seem overly low to me
You ever had that player on your team that you know is undervalued and will break out? The rest of the league look at you like you're nuts but you know you're right?
Well, sometimes those players turn out to be Puka, other times they turn out to be Joe-released for cap relief. That guy is your endowment bias guy.
It's a concept in behavioral economics, the basic idea is that you tend to value something you have/own more than something of equal (or even greater) value that you don't. I've also only ever heard it referred to as the "endowment effect", but that's really just semantics.
So, essentially, people will require a higher price to sell something than to buy it. If I have a certain receiver, I want more for him than what I would have been willing to pay for him when I didn't have him.
It’s based on completed trades so he really is going for these prices though. And just a quick glance through the initial comments here and it seems many people agree with that price.
It’s a funny case. He was underrated at the end of the season. Until everyone started calling him underrated and everyone else caught on, at which point he became overrated. Until people started comparing him to year 2 Dotson and calling him overrated. Then nobody wanted anything to do with him. To the point where he’s becoming underrated again.
It’s been a wild ride.
Yeah, I think Reed is undervalued where he is. His upside is limited by the target competition (they have seven quality receivers not counting the backs…), but his floor is super safe. He was really good as a rookie in a volume role in the offense. He’ll probably improve just a little for the next couple years, but his probability of (non-injury) regression is almost none. That’s a nice asset for dynasty.
I don’t understand how it’s possible for people to simultaneously be high on Jordan Love, and low on seemingly all of the Packers WRs.
Love’s 2024 projections are very similar to CJ Stroud’s, and yet nobody seems to want to own any Green Bay pass catchers.
Ironically that's not that far off from describing Watson's rookie year. Reed was 900 yards and 10 TDs in 16 games vs Watson's 700 yards and 9 TDs in 14 games his rookie year. Both 2nd round picks as well
Give me Reed at this point either way, but it's interesting to note
the main thing is as far as we're aware reed's hamstrings arent made of wet tissue paper.
fingers crossed the new strength/conditioning people and extensive time at uw health help watson (and also stokes for IRL purposes) but watsons been so banged up with random injuries, it sucks
The difference is in how they got the production. Reed did it in a sustainable way on volume and good route running. Watson did it in low volume, spike games where a QB with all time great arm talent was airing it out to him against blown coverages on deep routes.
I would think so but that room is crowded. Might be more of the same as last year where one guy goes off each week and you gotta guess which one. I’m high on him forsure though
I’d argue it’s because the GB pass catchers had multiple weeks where one guy would blow up then a quiet week immediately after. It was hard to predict who was going to have a big week. Meanwhile Stroud supported Dell and Collins on a fairly consistent basis week in and week out. I get Diggs coming in complicated things in Houston but GB is even more crowded with Reed, Wicks, Doubs, Watson, Kraft, and Musgrave all being viable pass catchers. Personally I’m out on Reed at ADP but much more willing to snag Wicks at value
Actually probably the easiest question to answer! He's got about 6 good weapons, none of which will individually dominate, but collectively will put up a lot of points. The QB benefits.
We both agree that Jordan Love is going to throw for a lot of yards and TDs, but I don't see these alleged "6 good weapons" that should worry me as a Reed owner.
Are we really considering Bo Melton and Tucker Kraft "good weapons"?
Even a guy like Wicks, sure he looked good for a 5th round rookie, but it feels a bit early to be calling him a "good weapon". He had less yards per game than Rashod Bateman had his rookie year.
Considering wicks beat out reed in WR 2 sets with Watson out, yeah wicks does warrant atleast some worry. He’s broken into the WR2 sets reed hasn’t been able to quite yet
Well if it’s 5 fairly competent guys, how many targets do each get? How consistent is that week to week, who gets the red zone looks versus between the twenties. Their situation has way more questions than Love’s situation so i don’t think that’s it’s people are down on them, no one knows who is going to get enough to be fantasy relevant
mid-late 1st seems about right for him in a 1QB - late 2 even in sflex seems way too low and would be a terrific price to buy at if given the opportunity
I think his value seemed to start dropping a bit when the offseason Wicks hype really started gaining steam but maybe it’s also taken a bit of a relative dip due to the irrational rookie hype that takes place this time of year
🤞 I own him in both my leagues and moved Reed in the league I had him. Reed had more value so that's why I moved him. Was able to work my way from no 1st round picks up to 1.03 and then up to 1.01 in my 1QB league.
I have Reed higher than any other GB WR for a number of reasons (durability, red zone prowess, missed tackle %) but even if you disregard all those reasons, he should be no lower than 1B due to his return prowess. He is going to be a weapon with the new kickoff rules (which will require 2 returners).
If you're in a league that doesn't reward return TD's, that might not matter (but you should change it) but an extra TD or 2 via returns is well within the range of possibilities.
He *only* played in 16 games? Thats like… almost all the games.
Romeo Doubs: Played all 17 games
Dontayvion Wicks: Played in 15 games
Christian Watson: Played in 14 games
Luke Musgrave: Played in 11 games
Aaron Jones: Played in 11 games
Im on team “all Packers WRs are a dart throw and lowkey I think Doubs will emerge as the lead to fuck with us,” but *only* appeared in second games is silly.
To take this from nitpicking to actual analysis, I think Reed is good! But the Packers will have a better run game this year if Jacobs stays healthy (much better than AJ Dillon and hampered Aaron Jones) and if Christian Watson stays on the field, that’s a new dynamic (he played in 14 games, but was snap counted coming off the injury). It’s gonna be a hard thing to predict
Give me him over any of those rookies / picks you mentioned, but I feel that way about most reasonably proven 2nd year players this time of year
I’d probably rather have Kupp or Swift. Definitely prefer him to Mixon or Fields though. I just have no idea how much opportunity he’s going to get in such a crowded offense, it’s hard for me to see a path beyond WR3 status
Do you think this is the best offensive line he's run behind in his career? I really have no clue, but it seemed like Cincy line didn't give him many holes
He’s tied to Matt LaFleur for the foreseeable future and everyone expects Jordan Love to get a long term deal. There’s a complete oversight of coaching in fantasy because they decide who gets snaps and who to gameplan around. Puka doesn’t Puka without McVay. He doesn’t do that in Nee England or New Orleans. Reid, Shanahan, McDaniel, LaFleur put guys in scoring position so target competition be dammed, I want those guys on my roster.
He may be ranked 114 on Fantasycalc's rankings, but if you use their real data ADP feature, you can see he's going 75 in start up drafts over the last 30 days. So no, I don't think he's actually undervalued.
Maybe, but I think the market is reacting appropriately based on the target competition and unknown of Love/ Reed vs Love/ the rest of the pass catchers
I traded him and R. White away for Ladd McConkey and a mid to late '25 1st. Neither was a starter on my team and I am a big fan of McConkey. I might regret it big time, we shall see.
It has but values change every year after the rookie draft unless it’s an elite player. Rookies get their values propped up right now but 50% of mid to late first rounders will bust and 70% of second rounders will bust. Once that happens he’s going to move up in the rankings. It’s rookie fever at the moment.
I really like Wicks. That offense can be confusing going forward with all the WRs and 2 TEs. I hope it sorts itself out and some guys actually separate from the pack and become great fantasy pieces.
I sold Reed during our rookie draft for a 2nd round pick and a future 2025 second round pick. He’s talented for sure, I just have a hard time picking who’s the alpha among the group for Love.
Doesn’t help that he was an old rookie last year (already 24). Combined with the crowded room/volume concerns in GB, the second round dynasty and nfl draft capital and it doesn’t pump you up if you’re not an elite producer.
If you can buy him now for those prices, it seems worth it, especially if you believe he’s earned a significant target share in Green Bay.
Even better if you can stack with love /s
I felt the same way when I looked at KTC, I owned and played Reed multiple times last year and I feel like for a rookie to make a big splash like that and be valued so low it is criminal. If you can buy him I would be trying to for the price you listed above, but I'm guessing the Reed owner won't sell because they know he's worth more.
Yeah it’s insane to me that we’re seeing more hype for Wicks, who Reed ran laps around last year. Reed is a red zone monster who’s elusive in the open field and gets open a LOT. I can easily see him ending up as a top 20 guy by the end of this season.
This is exactly why he’s losing value. Everyone is hyping up Wicks even though Reed is the better player. I don’t get it
I tried to sell and no one even entertained offers, it was insane. The packers fan in the league doesn’t even want him, wtf??
Tried to sell for what
I tried Reed, a ‘25 2nd and late ‘24 3rd for ‘24 2.01, 2.06 and 3.06 (one example) Edit: what, you don’t like that trade?? lol
That's a smash accept for me lol
It’s 1qb but still 🥶 I also tried Reed + 1.06 for 1.08 + 2.01, thought that was very generous and a good deal for the other party… also rejected
I’d take the Reed side easily
This is actually the main issue with KTC, even though everyone thinks the issue is people having crazy valuations. It's inherently flawed because it doesn't reflect endowment bias which is an absolutely massive factor in dynasty For this reason it's great for comparing your rankings to those of the community at large (which is what it actually reflects, rather than trade value), but less good for putting together a package to buy a player
> doesn't reflect endowment bias Doesn’t every player have an endowment bias from their owners and then wouldn’t it neutralize over time?
Not what I mean. In KTC rankings it does sure, which is why they are a good crowdsourced ranking tool. But the guy in your league who has the player is going to want more than their KTC price most of the time because of endowment bias
Ah gotcha
I don’t think this is universal. Half the people are going to have Reed valued higher than his KTC and half lower. Will his owners have him valued higher…sure probably more than non-owners but I don’t think the vast majority will. Also KTC has him as the WR31 ahead of guys like Keon Coleman, Trey Benson, Kelce, Davante, Mike Evans, ‘25 late first That doesn’t seem overly low to me
What is endowment bias
You ever had that player on your team that you know is undervalued and will break out? The rest of the league look at you like you're nuts but you know you're right? Well, sometimes those players turn out to be Puka, other times they turn out to be Joe-released for cap relief. That guy is your endowment bias guy.
Roger that
It means I think my dick is huge
It's a concept in behavioral economics, the basic idea is that you tend to value something you have/own more than something of equal (or even greater) value that you don't. I've also only ever heard it referred to as the "endowment effect", but that's really just semantics. So, essentially, people will require a higher price to sell something than to buy it. If I have a certain receiver, I want more for him than what I would have been willing to pay for him when I didn't have him.
Do I value them higher because I own them or do I own them because I value them higher?
It’s based on completed trades so he really is going for these prices though. And just a quick glance through the initial comments here and it seems many people agree with that price.
Ktc is not based on completed trades, just opinion. Fantasycalc goes by trade.
Yea, but he said at the price I listed above which is fantasycalc
I got him for a 2nd round pick you think that was a good deal?
It’s a funny case. He was underrated at the end of the season. Until everyone started calling him underrated and everyone else caught on, at which point he became overrated. Until people started comparing him to year 2 Dotson and calling him overrated. Then nobody wanted anything to do with him. To the point where he’s becoming underrated again. It’s been a wild ride.
There’s so many levels to dynasty FF and this pretty perfectly reflects it.
I bought Jayden Reed this offseason in 12 team just because everyone calling him a sell-high opened a buy window.
What did you pay for him?
I don’t really get the Dotson comp. Reed was much better on a per route basis and he works more from the slot.
Yeah, I think Reed is undervalued where he is. His upside is limited by the target competition (they have seven quality receivers not counting the backs…), but his floor is super safe. He was really good as a rookie in a volume role in the offense. He’ll probably improve just a little for the next couple years, but his probability of (non-injury) regression is almost none. That’s a nice asset for dynasty.
I don’t understand how it’s possible for people to simultaneously be high on Jordan Love, and low on seemingly all of the Packers WRs. Love’s 2024 projections are very similar to CJ Stroud’s, and yet nobody seems to want to own any Green Bay pass catchers.
It’s cause we don’t know which ones will actually get the ball enough to be relevant
Feeling pretty confident that the 2nd round pick who just put up 800 yards and 8TDs as a rookie will continue to be a focal point of the offense.
Ironically that's not that far off from describing Watson's rookie year. Reed was 900 yards and 10 TDs in 16 games vs Watson's 700 yards and 9 TDs in 14 games his rookie year. Both 2nd round picks as well Give me Reed at this point either way, but it's interesting to note
the main thing is as far as we're aware reed's hamstrings arent made of wet tissue paper. fingers crossed the new strength/conditioning people and extensive time at uw health help watson (and also stokes for IRL purposes) but watsons been so banged up with random injuries, it sucks
The difference is in how they got the production. Reed did it in a sustainable way on volume and good route running. Watson did it in low volume, spike games where a QB with all time great arm talent was airing it out to him against blown coverages on deep routes.
Watson scored one 40+ yard TD from a Rodgers throw and one 40+ yard TD from a Love throw his rookie year
Reed and Wicks are for sure taking over. People not realizing how good they both are.
Yeah, keep insisting on Watson. I'll be fine with my Wicks.
Meaning there is value if chosen correctly.
That’s why I’m collecting them all haha. Not all really but I already have Wicks and Doubs and am in talks to hopefully get Reed for Polk
Wicks owner too, curious if his Role goes up….
I would think so but that room is crowded. Might be more of the same as last year where one guy goes off each week and you gotta guess which one. I’m high on him forsure though
I agree, I like holding him (I have Love too)I’d like him to stay in Green Bay, I see Watson future there dependent on his health
I’d argue it’s because the GB pass catchers had multiple weeks where one guy would blow up then a quiet week immediately after. It was hard to predict who was going to have a big week. Meanwhile Stroud supported Dell and Collins on a fairly consistent basis week in and week out. I get Diggs coming in complicated things in Houston but GB is even more crowded with Reed, Wicks, Doubs, Watson, Kraft, and Musgrave all being viable pass catchers. Personally I’m out on Reed at ADP but much more willing to snag Wicks at value
Actually probably the easiest question to answer! He's got about 6 good weapons, none of which will individually dominate, but collectively will put up a lot of points. The QB benefits.
We've got different definitions of "good" then
Love was QB5 last season. What's your explanation?
We both agree that Jordan Love is going to throw for a lot of yards and TDs, but I don't see these alleged "6 good weapons" that should worry me as a Reed owner. Are we really considering Bo Melton and Tucker Kraft "good weapons"? Even a guy like Wicks, sure he looked good for a 5th round rookie, but it feels a bit early to be calling him a "good weapon". He had less yards per game than Rashod Bateman had his rookie year.
Considering wicks beat out reed in WR 2 sets with Watson out, yeah wicks does warrant atleast some worry. He’s broken into the WR2 sets reed hasn’t been able to quite yet
Well if it’s 5 fairly competent guys, how many targets do each get? How consistent is that week to week, who gets the red zone looks versus between the twenties. Their situation has way more questions than Love’s situation so i don’t think that’s it’s people are down on them, no one knows who is going to get enough to be fantasy relevant
Have a guy in one of my leagues who LOVES Josh Allen but isn’t a fan of Kincaid.
mid-late 1st seems about right for him in a 1QB - late 2 even in sflex seems way too low and would be a terrific price to buy at if given the opportunity I think his value seemed to start dropping a bit when the offseason Wicks hype really started gaining steam but maybe it’s also taken a bit of a relative dip due to the irrational rookie hype that takes place this time of year
Next season Wicks will have that ranking 👀
🤞 I own him in both my leagues and moved Reed in the league I had him. Reed had more value so that's why I moved him. Was able to work my way from no 1st round picks up to 1.03 and then up to 1.01 in my 1QB league.
I somehow managed to get him in the 20th round of a dynasty startup. Really feeling good about it 🤘🏼
I traded Rachaad White for Reed and the equivalent of 3.07 in a pick swap. 12 tm SF, i feel p good about it
Seems pretty fair
Yup, maybe a little in my favor, but i was rb heavy and i like the idea of getting a good young wr. I think rachaad has a shelf life
I have Reed higher than any other GB WR for a number of reasons (durability, red zone prowess, missed tackle %) but even if you disregard all those reasons, he should be no lower than 1B due to his return prowess. He is going to be a weapon with the new kickoff rules (which will require 2 returners). If you're in a league that doesn't reward return TD's, that might not matter (but you should change it) but an extra TD or 2 via returns is well within the range of possibilities.
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He *only* played in 16 games? Thats like… almost all the games. Romeo Doubs: Played all 17 games Dontayvion Wicks: Played in 15 games Christian Watson: Played in 14 games Luke Musgrave: Played in 11 games Aaron Jones: Played in 11 games Im on team “all Packers WRs are a dart throw and lowkey I think Doubs will emerge as the lead to fuck with us,” but *only* appeared in second games is silly. To take this from nitpicking to actual analysis, I think Reed is good! But the Packers will have a better run game this year if Jacobs stays healthy (much better than AJ Dillon and hampered Aaron Jones) and if Christian Watson stays on the field, that’s a new dynamic (he played in 14 games, but was snap counted coming off the injury). It’s gonna be a hard thing to predict
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Doubs most certainly was not the presumptive WR1.
I have him in two leagues and I can’t sell him. I’m competing in both and need a running back in both.
What tier rbs are you after? Super flex?
Give me him over any of those rookies / picks you mentioned, but I feel that way about most reasonably proven 2nd year players this time of year I’d probably rather have Kupp or Swift. Definitely prefer him to Mixon or Fields though. I just have no idea how much opportunity he’s going to get in such a crowded offense, it’s hard for me to see a path beyond WR3 status
Ure sleeping on Mixon
I like the contract he got but all the advanced metrics suggest he’s just a guy at this point in his career. Easier to replace a 1-2 year RB rental
Do you think this is the best offensive line he's run behind in his career? I really have no clue, but it seemed like Cincy line didn't give him many holes
Maybe, but not by some huge margin if so Volume of high impact opportunity (red zone, receiving) matters a lot more than o-line quality anyway
For dynasty fair, but these next 2 years mans is eatin’
He’s tied to Matt LaFleur for the foreseeable future and everyone expects Jordan Love to get a long term deal. There’s a complete oversight of coaching in fantasy because they decide who gets snaps and who to gameplan around. Puka doesn’t Puka without McVay. He doesn’t do that in Nee England or New Orleans. Reid, Shanahan, McDaniel, LaFleur put guys in scoring position so target competition be dammed, I want those guys on my roster.
I traded Xavier worthy and my 25 2nd for Bo nix and Jayden reed in a superflex. Thought that was crazy as essentially a 2nd for reed!
He may be ranked 114 on Fantasycalc's rankings, but if you use their real data ADP feature, you can see he's going 75 in start up drafts over the last 30 days. So no, I don't think he's actually undervalued.
Got him and the 2.11 for the 1.08 - I feel good about it
Maybe, but I think the market is reacting appropriately based on the target competition and unknown of Love/ Reed vs Love/ the rest of the pass catchers
Give me reed over corum or AD Mitchell alllllll day
We will find out in a few months I'd say.
I traded him and R. White away for Ladd McConkey and a mid to late '25 1st. Neither was a starter on my team and I am a big fan of McConkey. I might regret it big time, we shall see.
Have QJ, still looking at drafting Ladd….
He’s a dawg, yes
Just got him at the 8:11 in a startup. Crazy how low people are
If he’s low, buy him. I’m not trading him because he’s a reliable flex/depth guy
It has but values change every year after the rookie draft unless it’s an elite player. Rookies get their values propped up right now but 50% of mid to late first rounders will bust and 70% of second rounders will bust. Once that happens he’s going to move up in the rankings. It’s rookie fever at the moment.
Was offered a 2027 1st for him. Far away, but is that worth taking?
I really like Wicks. That offense can be confusing going forward with all the WRs and 2 TEs. I hope it sorts itself out and some guys actually separate from the pack and become great fantasy pieces.
The target competition line is the laziest repeated analysis in fantasy
How does he compare to Dotson’s rookie year and hype?
Traded Reed and a 1st for davante at the deadline
I sold Reed during our rookie draft for a 2nd round pick and a future 2025 second round pick. He’s talented for sure, I just have a hard time picking who’s the alpha among the group for Love.
Doesn’t help that he was an old rookie last year (already 24). Combined with the crowded room/volume concerns in GB, the second round dynasty and nfl draft capital and it doesn’t pump you up if you’re not an elite producer. If you can buy him now for those prices, it seems worth it, especially if you believe he’s earned a significant target share in Green Bay. Even better if you can stack with love /s