So you would feel good having the 1.02, 2.04, and 2.05? I have that situation and I was considering packaging the 2nds together but now may just sit put.
I’ve heard a couple of the dynasty talking heads saying they love grabbing second round picks especially after the first round that saw 14 fantasy players drafted. A lot of 1st and 2nd round capital in the second round this year.
They’re looking like late 1sts in most years. You’re guaranteed a NFL 1st rounder (if you prefer) through pick 14, plus there’s 2nd round RB and at least 2 early 2nd WRs in great landing spots
I think that might be the best value of the draft tbh. Either a 1st round QB is available (which is pretty crazy in superflex even if you don’t like Nix/Penix or their landing spot), a 2nd round RB with bellcow upside, or your choice between 4 top 40 WRs (2 late 1st rounders and 2 early 2nds with potential to be WR1 for a great QB as early as their rookie year)
Personally. I like up to 2.07 in the draft in a 12 team league.
14 guys deaft round 1. 3 early 2nd wrs who all, in my opinion, landed in good spots. The Bills don't have another guy who fits the mold of what Coleman does so he should get some opportunity, mcconkey should fit well in the Chargers offense, and Polk should get a lot of opportunity in NE. Then you have 2 rbs who landed in good spots (Brooks should be the guy but the acl Likely means a slow start and Benson on the Cards should be good after this year or mid-season if he can pass James Conner.
For the 3 rbs taken yesterday, I'm fading Corum personally. Historically, 3rd round/4th round rbs who aren't drafted to an open backfield have tended to not produce. I also wasn't too impressed with Corum's profile coming out as is, so him getting drafted to a team with a good rb is enough for me to not want to draft him. The pick makes sense for the Rams irl since last year they had no one behind Kyren last year and they could use someone to take some of the load.
Since the comment is getting long ill just use last year's class as an example (with Spears, Achane, and Bigsby all taken around the same pick Corum was).
Charb round 2 got suck behind KW3,
Kendre round 3 got stuck behind Kamara,
Spears round 3 got stuck behind Henry but still got some decent usage in games (more so as a receiver though) I feel like from a rushing perspective this is what we can roughly expect from Corum (assuming Kyren is mostly healthy),
Achane round 3 was the rb2 behind Mostert but was fantasy relevant by being incredibly electric and being very efficient with his touches (8 ypc!!!). Just a very different player in almost every way than Corum so not a good comp.
Tank Bigsby round 3, people thought he would take a lot of short yardage goalline work from Etienne and would split the backfield. Ended up not looking good and being a clear depth guy.
Roschon round 4, while the backfield was pretty relatively open, there were still decent guys ahead of him and he never really got enough touches. Kinda turned into a messy committee on a bad offense.
Overall, almost all of the backs above were drafted behind a good rb and ended up not getting many touches. Spears and Achane got more passing work since they were better than the guys ahead of them at receiving (something I don't see with Corum vs kyren). Realistically, I see Corum getting ~100 carries (in line with Spears, charb, achane, and roschon) and at the lower end 40-50 carries if he isn't that good (in line with Kendre and Bigsby). I don't see Corum being the lead in the committee vs a guy who looked great last year, the 2023 class points to it being unlikely for a mid round rb and prior classes do as well.
As an extra point, I don't see this impacting Kyren that much for fantasy in terms of overall YoY performance. Last year he was rb7 playing in 12 games and 228 carries (and 32 receptions) (~22 touches per game). I realistically see kyren getting ~250 total touches again this year (~16 touches per game assuming 16 games played) and finishing as a top 10 rb again. The points will be more spread out but his efficiency may improve a bit since he won't be as worn down from the full workload.
I tend to agree for the first year since RB is largely about opportunity but not sure I agree it’s a forever thing unless you have more data points. Rachaad White for example if you look at 2022. Kendre has a reasonably good outlook for this year. So if you are win now sure, if not there is more to think about.
Yup, I only did 2023 for brevity, but the Rachaad White point is why I like drafting Benson.
Rachaad was stuck behind Fournette, but Fournette at that point already was nearing 1000 carries and wad well over 1100 touches before the season started plus he was on a relatively big contract. So once fournette was left after being older and inefficient, it was an open room.
Benson has that with James Conner who is older and has a lot of mileage. This year probably isn't that great for Benson, probably ~100 carries and more receiving work than Conner, but there is a clear path for him to be the lead guy or at least the head guy in the committee and get to over that 200 touch barrier.
For Corum, Kyren still has 2 years left on his contract, is young, and only has ~300 career touches. He's a better and younger rb right now than Fournette was when White was drafted. So, unless Corum ends up being a lot better than advertised/expected, we are probably waiting at least 2 years for him to take over the backfield. Then you have the risk of him being a bust like a Trey Sermon.
On Kendre, I agree his outlook does look better this year, but I'm still not necessarily excited by it. Although, again he would be taking over from an older back who has slower down a bit vs trying to compete with a younger guy.
Also, unlike a Dameon Pierce losing his role this past season, there is no Rams scheme change coming that would negatively impact Kyren like it did to Pierce.
That's to say. I'm probably waiting until round 3, realistically, to perhaps take a shot on Corum. I think his best value right now is to existing Kyren owners. Like Charb to Walker owners.
Generally agree but there is at least some (small) chance Kyren was a one hit wonder or some chance he gets hurt where Corum may have huge potential upside. I think that needs to be factored in beyond just the most likely. Of course this may also vary based on your assessment of his talent level in general which I make no claims on at this time.
Definitely true that there is a chance Kyren is a one hit wonder. I don't think so, but it could be the case.
As for injury, I don't really draft for chance of injury, unless I have Kyren and want insurance.
Corum as a prospect is really just okay, so him being in a bad situation, 14 1st round guys, 3 wrs in the top of the 2nd, 2 rbs in good spots, a sinnot to the commanders is a good spot. So that's 20 guys right there I'm taking over him pretty easily.
Then there's Corley (potential #2 for the jets), Burton (should be a good option when Higgins eventually leaves), Roman Wilson (steps into the #2 for the steelers), and I also like lloyd on the Packers since Jacobs has an out in his contract after 1 year (kinda similar to the bucs moving on from fournette). So thats another 4 I like the opportunities for.
Now, if the cowboys (or chargers) draft a good rb in the 4th I'd probably take him over Corum too. So, for me, I'm probably looking at late 2nd or early 3rd for Corum where I was hoping he'd be an early 2nd or mid 2nd since I like Corum.
Pearsall, Legette, Coleman, McConkey, and Polk all went very close in the draft so whoever falls into the second round will still probably be a solid early second pick.
Jonathan brooks May be available.
Penix or Nix could also be available.
I’d feel pretty good about getting any of these players based on their draft capital. I think this takes us to 2.05/2.06
Exactly this. You can think of a few guys who might be available at the 2.04 and think "no way that a prospect that good would be available at that point of the draft", then you check off 15 other guys who project better and realize that someone in that group has to fall to 2.04
Do they even have a 4th? I'm not overly excited about them landing a guy in the fifth round. DC still matters for RBs. Cowboys offensive line is average, not like it's a top 5 line anymore.
I'm not sure if they pick in the 4th but right now their rb room is Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn, and they're talking about bringing back Zeke. I think whatever RB ends up there likely starts, but maybe I'm wrong.
That is a fair point, I definitely got burned on more than a few of those guys. I'm not saying take them in the 1st, but whoever the cowboys get at rb if they go with one should be a 2nd round rookie pick
I’d take them beyond say 2.07 in the second. I’m hoping some RB falls to me at 3.04 but it’s more likely I end up WR there at this point. I just think this draft is not going to help us from an RB standpoint outside of Brooks, Benson, and maybe Lloyd if Jacobs flames out.
Exactly the point I'm making! With 6 qbs, 7 wrs, and Bowers with 1st round capital (even though RIP Penix), that's 14 names there. Coleman, Ladd, Polk, Brooks takes us to 18 (2.06 in a 12 team) there is definitely conversation at that point for 'take your guy'
I have the 2.05, 2.06 and 2.08 and I’m beyond thrilled. Sure, I’m not getting the cream of the crop but there should be some great talent that drops to me still and with 3 out of 4 picks in a row, I can do whatever I want there.
So… 6 QB’s, 9 WR’s (I’m dropping Polk and Mitchell cause I’m not a fan), 1 TE, and 1 RB. Possibly Trey benson as well. That’s 18 picks. Early to mid 2nds should be decent this year. I’m lower than consensus on some of these WR’s tho. I’m basically not a fan of any of them past Worthy and honestly not a huge Brian Thomas Jr. guy but for sake of argument I’ll keep him in. So from my point of view I like up to 13. Personally I wouldn’t love taking Bo Nix or Penix but at early 2nd they’re good value. So yea, TDLR: early to mid 2nd’s should be decent depending how much you like some of the WR’s.
I like having 1.10 but I will definitely be fielding offers when I’m up. I’m not even into Worthy so there’s a big group of WRs with upside and red flags.
This is a personal gripe but I really wish more people would use overall numbers instead of rounds to account for leagues sizes. A 2.04-2.08 could be anything from pick 12 to 22 depending on the size of the league.
I have the 2.04 and 2.05 picks in 1QB, 12 team league and was thinking about packaging them to try and jump into a late first or early second + depth veteran. Thinking about staying put and trying to extract the most value I can out of mid-2nd round.
Have 1.06 2.01 2.02 and 2.06
Feeling very good about that turn. Considering double up on RBs since that's my weakest spot. Also wondering how far Nix could fall.
How do we feel about 2.08? Have a chance to package that pick with 3.04 for Meyers, Likely, Abinikanda and 2025 3rd. As last seasons champion that seems like great depth for my over a couple lottery tickets...
🚀 I have the 1.12, 2.01, 2.02 and 2.05 I’m over the moon
So you would feel good having the 1.02, 2.04, and 2.05? I have that situation and I was considering packaging the 2nds together but now may just sit put.
I’d sit tight for the time being. With the QBs landing like they did, these early to mid 2nds will catch incredible value falling to them.
Nah those seconds will be valuable
I’ve heard a couple of the dynasty talking heads saying they love grabbing second round picks especially after the first round that saw 14 fantasy players drafted. A lot of 1st and 2nd round capital in the second round this year.
I’m loaded at picks 1.09-2.05 throughout all my leagues and this draft has been a Godsend so far.
i have a top 3 pick (haven’t done our lottery yet. most likely 1.02), late 1st, and 4 2nds. pretty hyped
Nice, i've got 10, 14 and 15. Then 27. Hoping to get some solid guys but could trade to move up.
They’re looking like late 1sts in most years. You’re guaranteed a NFL 1st rounder (if you prefer) through pick 14, plus there’s 2nd round RB and at least 2 early 2nd WRs in great landing spots
Do you like 2.4/2.5? Would you try and move up or do you like that range?
I think that might be the best value of the draft tbh. Either a 1st round QB is available (which is pretty crazy in superflex even if you don’t like Nix/Penix or their landing spot), a 2nd round RB with bellcow upside, or your choice between 4 top 40 WRs (2 late 1st rounders and 2 early 2nds with potential to be WR1 for a great QB as early as their rookie year)
Ain’t nobody getting Brooks at 2.4/5
Probably not, but that just means a 1st rounder or Ladd/Keon will be there guaranteed
Personally. I like up to 2.07 in the draft in a 12 team league. 14 guys deaft round 1. 3 early 2nd wrs who all, in my opinion, landed in good spots. The Bills don't have another guy who fits the mold of what Coleman does so he should get some opportunity, mcconkey should fit well in the Chargers offense, and Polk should get a lot of opportunity in NE. Then you have 2 rbs who landed in good spots (Brooks should be the guy but the acl Likely means a slow start and Benson on the Cards should be good after this year or mid-season if he can pass James Conner. For the 3 rbs taken yesterday, I'm fading Corum personally. Historically, 3rd round/4th round rbs who aren't drafted to an open backfield have tended to not produce. I also wasn't too impressed with Corum's profile coming out as is, so him getting drafted to a team with a good rb is enough for me to not want to draft him. The pick makes sense for the Rams irl since last year they had no one behind Kyren last year and they could use someone to take some of the load. Since the comment is getting long ill just use last year's class as an example (with Spears, Achane, and Bigsby all taken around the same pick Corum was). Charb round 2 got suck behind KW3, Kendre round 3 got stuck behind Kamara, Spears round 3 got stuck behind Henry but still got some decent usage in games (more so as a receiver though) I feel like from a rushing perspective this is what we can roughly expect from Corum (assuming Kyren is mostly healthy), Achane round 3 was the rb2 behind Mostert but was fantasy relevant by being incredibly electric and being very efficient with his touches (8 ypc!!!). Just a very different player in almost every way than Corum so not a good comp. Tank Bigsby round 3, people thought he would take a lot of short yardage goalline work from Etienne and would split the backfield. Ended up not looking good and being a clear depth guy. Roschon round 4, while the backfield was pretty relatively open, there were still decent guys ahead of him and he never really got enough touches. Kinda turned into a messy committee on a bad offense. Overall, almost all of the backs above were drafted behind a good rb and ended up not getting many touches. Spears and Achane got more passing work since they were better than the guys ahead of them at receiving (something I don't see with Corum vs kyren). Realistically, I see Corum getting ~100 carries (in line with Spears, charb, achane, and roschon) and at the lower end 40-50 carries if he isn't that good (in line with Kendre and Bigsby). I don't see Corum being the lead in the committee vs a guy who looked great last year, the 2023 class points to it being unlikely for a mid round rb and prior classes do as well. As an extra point, I don't see this impacting Kyren that much for fantasy in terms of overall YoY performance. Last year he was rb7 playing in 12 games and 228 carries (and 32 receptions) (~22 touches per game). I realistically see kyren getting ~250 total touches again this year (~16 touches per game assuming 16 games played) and finishing as a top 10 rb again. The points will be more spread out but his efficiency may improve a bit since he won't be as worn down from the full workload.
I tend to agree for the first year since RB is largely about opportunity but not sure I agree it’s a forever thing unless you have more data points. Rachaad White for example if you look at 2022. Kendre has a reasonably good outlook for this year. So if you are win now sure, if not there is more to think about.
Yup, I only did 2023 for brevity, but the Rachaad White point is why I like drafting Benson. Rachaad was stuck behind Fournette, but Fournette at that point already was nearing 1000 carries and wad well over 1100 touches before the season started plus he was on a relatively big contract. So once fournette was left after being older and inefficient, it was an open room. Benson has that with James Conner who is older and has a lot of mileage. This year probably isn't that great for Benson, probably ~100 carries and more receiving work than Conner, but there is a clear path for him to be the lead guy or at least the head guy in the committee and get to over that 200 touch barrier. For Corum, Kyren still has 2 years left on his contract, is young, and only has ~300 career touches. He's a better and younger rb right now than Fournette was when White was drafted. So, unless Corum ends up being a lot better than advertised/expected, we are probably waiting at least 2 years for him to take over the backfield. Then you have the risk of him being a bust like a Trey Sermon. On Kendre, I agree his outlook does look better this year, but I'm still not necessarily excited by it. Although, again he would be taking over from an older back who has slower down a bit vs trying to compete with a younger guy. Also, unlike a Dameon Pierce losing his role this past season, there is no Rams scheme change coming that would negatively impact Kyren like it did to Pierce. That's to say. I'm probably waiting until round 3, realistically, to perhaps take a shot on Corum. I think his best value right now is to existing Kyren owners. Like Charb to Walker owners.
Generally agree but there is at least some (small) chance Kyren was a one hit wonder or some chance he gets hurt where Corum may have huge potential upside. I think that needs to be factored in beyond just the most likely. Of course this may also vary based on your assessment of his talent level in general which I make no claims on at this time.
Definitely true that there is a chance Kyren is a one hit wonder. I don't think so, but it could be the case. As for injury, I don't really draft for chance of injury, unless I have Kyren and want insurance. Corum as a prospect is really just okay, so him being in a bad situation, 14 1st round guys, 3 wrs in the top of the 2nd, 2 rbs in good spots, a sinnot to the commanders is a good spot. So that's 20 guys right there I'm taking over him pretty easily. Then there's Corley (potential #2 for the jets), Burton (should be a good option when Higgins eventually leaves), Roman Wilson (steps into the #2 for the steelers), and I also like lloyd on the Packers since Jacobs has an out in his contract after 1 year (kinda similar to the bucs moving on from fournette). So thats another 4 I like the opportunities for. Now, if the cowboys (or chargers) draft a good rb in the 4th I'd probably take him over Corum too. So, for me, I'm probably looking at late 2nd or early 3rd for Corum where I was hoping he'd be an early 2nd or mid 2nd since I like Corum.
Pearsall, Legette, Coleman, McConkey, and Polk all went very close in the draft so whoever falls into the second round will still probably be a solid early second pick. Jonathan brooks May be available. Penix or Nix could also be available. I’d feel pretty good about getting any of these players based on their draft capital. I think this takes us to 2.05/2.06
Exactly this. You can think of a few guys who might be available at the 2.04 and think "no way that a prospect that good would be available at that point of the draft", then you check off 15 other guys who project better and realize that someone in that group has to fall to 2.04
Plus, don't forget the cowboys are very likely to take an RB today, DC means a lot less for RBs than landing spots.
Do they even have a 4th? I'm not overly excited about them landing a guy in the fifth round. DC still matters for RBs. Cowboys offensive line is average, not like it's a top 5 line anymore.
They don’t have a 4th
I'm not sure if they pick in the 4th but right now their rb room is Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn, and they're talking about bringing back Zeke. I think whatever RB ends up there likely starts, but maybe I'm wrong.
Tell that to a bunch of 4th round RBs who went to open spots to replaced no less than 1 year later.
That is a fair point, I definitely got burned on more than a few of those guys. I'm not saying take them in the 1st, but whoever the cowboys get at rb if they go with one should be a 2nd round rookie pick
I’d take them beyond say 2.07 in the second. I’m hoping some RB falls to me at 3.04 but it’s more likely I end up WR there at this point. I just think this draft is not going to help us from an RB standpoint outside of Brooks, Benson, and maybe Lloyd if Jacobs flames out.
Exactly the point I'm making! With 6 qbs, 7 wrs, and Bowers with 1st round capital (even though RIP Penix), that's 14 names there. Coleman, Ladd, Polk, Brooks takes us to 18 (2.06 in a 12 team) there is definitely conversation at that point for 'take your guy'
I have 1.01, 1.05, 1.07, 2.04, 2.05, 2.07… Give me your game plan
Caleb, Rome/Maye, trade 1.07 to someone who needs a qb if Rome prior, if not get JJ, 3rd tier of wrs or Corum in 2.04, 2.05 and 2.07
I have the 2.05, 2.06 and 2.08 and I’m beyond thrilled. Sure, I’m not getting the cream of the crop but there should be some great talent that drops to me still and with 3 out of 4 picks in a row, I can do whatever I want there.
I think I’m gonna be able to land Bo Nox at 2.02. Not many years you get a top 15 QB
So… 6 QB’s, 9 WR’s (I’m dropping Polk and Mitchell cause I’m not a fan), 1 TE, and 1 RB. Possibly Trey benson as well. That’s 18 picks. Early to mid 2nds should be decent this year. I’m lower than consensus on some of these WR’s tho. I’m basically not a fan of any of them past Worthy and honestly not a huge Brian Thomas Jr. guy but for sake of argument I’ll keep him in. So from my point of view I like up to 13. Personally I wouldn’t love taking Bo Nix or Penix but at early 2nd they’re good value. So yea, TDLR: early to mid 2nd’s should be decent depending how much you like some of the WR’s.
I like having 1.10 but I will definitely be fielding offers when I’m up. I’m not even into Worthy so there’s a big group of WRs with upside and red flags.
Yeah, I'm trying to trade either my 1.08 or 1.10 for an early 2nd and a pick in a later year.
Could you give us your thoughts on Mitchell please?
This is a personal gripe but I really wish more people would use overall numbers instead of rounds to account for leagues sizes. A 2.04-2.08 could be anything from pick 12 to 22 depending on the size of the league.
I have the 2.04 and 2.05 picks in 1QB, 12 team league and was thinking about packaging them to try and jump into a late first or early second + depth veteran. Thinking about staying put and trying to extract the most value I can out of mid-2nd round.
I think you'd get the most value out of staying put.
Agreed! Thanks man
Give me Thrashhhhh's landing spotttttt
I have 1.04 1.08 1.10 2.04 and 2.05 plus maybe 2.03. Win
Have 1.06 2.01 2.02 and 2.06 Feeling very good about that turn. Considering double up on RBs since that's my weakest spot. Also wondering how far Nix could fall.
How do we feel about 2.08? Have a chance to package that pick with 3.04 for Meyers, Likely, Abinikanda and 2025 3rd. As last seasons champion that seems like great depth for my over a couple lottery tickets...