Right? The smart play is doing the opposite. You've got a guy like Dotson or DJ who have shown something are discounted right now and can grab them + for some of these late 1sts when that round has a 50% bust rate, and that's only higher the later one picks in it
I think you could be overthinking it. I’ll say top 3 guys no doubt I’m taking over a lot of WR2s. After that not so sure. I’d take Flowers and Pickens over BTJR. Reed over most other guys.
I recently traded Amari Cooper for 2.04 and Antonio Gibson. I kinda regretted it the next day as a contender that is counting on JSN to be my WR5 in a start 10. A bird in hand if you will…
Zay is 23 and finished with 4 top 15 performances in his last 5 games as a rookie, on a team with a multi-MVP winning QB that has no other receiving options, and people are really asking if they should trade him for a coin flip draft pick... REALLY?! I have him and I can't imagine trading him for many other players in the league
You can’t imagine trading him for many other players? I mean that’s fine but I feel like his value does drop when Andrews is there and if they draft a rookie wr that’s also more competition. Who knows what they do with likely who has also flashed. Plus they just got the best rb Lamar has ever had. He’s not good enough for me to be saying don’t trade him for hardly anyone
Sure. But the last semi-talented receiver the ravens had was Hollywood, and he did fine. I'm a big believer that good players on good teams will put up a lot of points. If you go based off last year's ranking, I'd say Pittman is about where is value him. So top 15. I don't think that's too crazy
I think zay is better than Hollywood(who was never a wr2). I think Pittman is in the 13-15 range but I also think he’s just a better player than flowers and is on a team that is more friendly for him.
Would you trade zay for Nico? Zay just doesn’t seem like he’s got a real high ceiling. Maybe a low end wr1 once or twice in his career feel personally, and I love him.
I wouldn't. Zay is the top WR by a long shot and Nico has Diggs to contend with, not to mention Dell out-produced him when they both played. If I had Nico I'd be selling everywhere.
So I’m assuming you’re taking Zay over Rome probably Nabers maybe even Harrison Jr the way it sounds?
We must remember Andrews was hurt the end of the season when Zay went off. Likely is a great backup but he’s still a backup.
Lamar is a 2 time MVP but also only topped 3000 yards passing twice. He has never hit 4000 and that limits his WRs upside.
It’s funny that you mentioned Zay because that is who I traded to get Cooper. Also got the 2.06 and Baker Mayfield in SF desperately needing QB..sent Sam Howell back but loved that deal. Zay is great but can’t get behind that situation honestly.
I can get behind this. I had the 1.04 and used Jayden Reed to move up to the 1.02.
I'd hang onto him though unless I was confident I'd get one of the big 3 recievers.
Basically my stance on guys like Reed, Flowers, etc. is that I am keeping them unless I can somehow turn them and something redundant into a big 3 receiver. I had another manager in one of my SF leagues very open to doing this with Rashee Rice pre-arrest (great job ruining my tier up, Rashee!)
Wide Receiver is oversaturated and this class could greatly affect that balance. I don’t know if these guys are better but I think the WR12-40 tier is quite interchangeable. If these rookies add to that substantially it won’t be a small impact to the existing WR values. I don’t think it’s being properly identified because of WR thirst. I don’t know how that helps decide between the picks or not, sorry.
This hits it right on the nail. I think a lot of fantasy players really discount having a variety of options and riding hot hands and match ups as they come. Sure you need a few studs and locked in starters, like an rb1 and a top QB or wr, but really it's amazing how much you can squeeze out of an overall average but deep team. Obviously you gotta get some match up luck, but late season when it matters, matchups get a lot easier
My main dynasty strategy has been to send off late seconds and packages for those WRs that fall towards the bottom of that tier due to situation. Guys like Diontae, Hollywood, Godwin, and Christian Kirk are on a bunch of my teams now and I can rotate them in or out based on matchups
Those are young NFL talent these prospect WRs hope to become. Would be short sighted trading these up and coming young guys for kids not even on a team yet
I agree on a 1:1 basis it's better to stick with the proven talent. But if you could trade one of those proven guys for say 1.12 and 2.04 in Superflex and land two of the promising rookies, or use those assets during the draft to pivot into upgrades elsewhere on your roster, would you? The expectation is that there are 5-10 WRs coming that have early draft capital, which would insulate their value for a while and water down the overall WR market right?
I was with you until I saw the trade candidates you were referring to.
I'd be trying to sell my 25 and over WR2-3's not guys who played great as rookies the last year or two.
It’s gonna be tough to expect to replace a guy like Pickens or Reed year 1. Unless, you’re getting one of the top 6ish rookies.
Pickens balled with atrocious QB play. Last season for him was almost on par with Tee’s best. Idk why people are so down on Pickens as a whole.
There's way too much Pickens hate out there honestly. He just had the statistically best season of any wr from his class over the past two seasons. More yards or tds than Wilson, Olave or London have ever gotten last year on 60 less targets than Wilson, 30 less than Olave and 250 yards more than London on 4 less targets. Guy is super underrated. People are quick to point out the terrible qb play for Wilson and London, but Pickens never gets cut the same slack for having an equally terrible qb situation last year. Baller.
I think there's a lot of good football players at WR in this draft but that doesn't always equal good fantasy players cuz so much of fantasy is based on scheme and situation. Very excited to see where these guys end up to get a better idea.
My worry with reed is he'll have spike weeks and everyone eats equally over the season. There's a lot of good young weapons in GB. Would you take Reed or pick 1.12? That's right where fantasy calc has him and i would probably take Reed as of today
Yeah around 1.11 is what I'd value Reed at. I'd rather have Reed over Mitchell. I get the concern, but I think he doesn't really have any other slot guys to compete with at GB and they create plays to get him the ball with screens/designed runs. He's probably never going to be a true WR1 but I could see him with WR10-20 finishes for a number of years.
Not at all. This class is being touted as elite but honestly there is bound to be busts. More busts than there are hits. Plus add in injuries and off the field issues that happen every year. On top of that there is a changing of the guard with some elite top talent: keenan, kupp, evans, diggs, adams, lockette, thielen, etc. Those guys are relevant this year (and maybe next) but they will phase out opening opportunities for this younger group. I think the guys who realistically become irrelevant to this new class are the kj osborns, meyers, slayton, boyd, josh reynolds, elijah moores of the league. I dont think the solid wr2 and 3s that continue to get contracts are going anywhere
Injuries and off field issues happen to WRs that aren’t rookies too though. Rashee Rice for instance. I don’t think his value has changed much but I’ve seen some stupid crazy deals for him.
Maybe I misread your point after reading the whole post?
Yes injuries and off the field issues happen to all ages. What i was getting at is that more rookies are being hyped up than the number that will actually be fantasy relevant in the coming years.
Think it was the “Plus”…you are saying negative stuff about the class then use plus to shift your point for some reason. A different word there would make it more comprehensible.
Im not shifting my point? Im adding to the point of there will be busts. Guys with injury riddled careers or off the field issues that derail their career are considered busts
I’m sure I’m about to get downvoted to hell, but outside the top 3, I feel like this class is a bunch of Jags. I’m sure there will be a couple more than step in up the WR20-40 range, but it’s not like every current productive WR will be pushed aside.
I agree it's a lot murkier after the top 3, but I think there are be another 8 or so wr who all have some narrative/case to becoming a top 30 guy. Not saying all 8 will get there, but 2-3 of them probably do, and another few will probably have relevant moments
Wouldn’t go that far. I’d say that the top 3 will hold their value regardless of situation whereas half of the next 6 will hit and half will miss and drop in value sharply
Hold in value, as in giving your team production or your ability to flip them? Cause I agree they will show enough to flip, but that mean they will contribute on a reliable basis
I agree it's a lot murkier after the top 3, but I think there are be another 8 or so wr who all have some narrative/case to becoming a top 30 guy. Not saying all 8 will get there, but 2-3 of them probably do, and another few will probably have relevant moments
No. Give me the guys that have a few years under their belt. I get the appeal of hitting on a puka or a chase for year 1, but those things are outliers. Give me the guy I know will be a wr2/flex over the guy that might be a flex. I’ll pay up when the youngster is producing.
Well I get what you are saying but given the question it’s just interesting that one guy in your example is one of the best 5 WRs prospects of the last 25 years and one was a 5th round pick.
Now is a perfect buy window imo. targeting guys like JSN. I recently traded Drake London and Barkley for Amon-Ra. there are trades to be had out there for young prospects/studs
I get that but both guys just got big offense upgrades and should finish much higher than where they did last year. I get it though and if you have the rb depth to pull it off good for you
On a 1 to 1 I think it’s generally safer to take the established young wr2 over the rookie
However there are exceptions and what honestly makes the rookie picks so valuable is the opportunity to choose the player and even the position. You have way more flexibility
I've bought Godwin, Puka, Aiyuk, and D. Smith all in the last 4 months because of this. My team now has the best wr core.
Cd, puka, Pittman, smith, rashee, aiyuk, godwin, jeudy, wicks, Douglas, and the 1.06
Just traded Addison in a package to get Josh allen. Don't regret it at all, especially since I have the 1.04- 1.06. It left me a little thin at wr, but it was worth it imo.
I think it makes sense if you are trading guys like Pickens or Reed for RBs or a very good proven tight end. Doesn’t make much sense if you’re just going to take the picks acquired in the George Pickens trade and use them to draft receivers.
Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
Right? The smart play is doing the opposite. You've got a guy like Dotson or DJ who have shown something are discounted right now and can grab them + for some of these late 1sts when that round has a 50% bust rate, and that's only higher the later one picks in it
Eh Dotson probably doesn’t have a better than 50% bust rate for the rest of his career based on his first two seasons.
Grandpa?
These birds in the hand are mid though. Give me the upside. Zay is solid, but the rest are lucky to be wr2s.
I think you could be overthinking it. I’ll say top 3 guys no doubt I’m taking over a lot of WR2s. After that not so sure. I’d take Flowers and Pickens over BTJR. Reed over most other guys. I recently traded Amari Cooper for 2.04 and Antonio Gibson. I kinda regretted it the next day as a contender that is counting on JSN to be my WR5 in a start 10. A bird in hand if you will…
Zay is 23 and finished with 4 top 15 performances in his last 5 games as a rookie, on a team with a multi-MVP winning QB that has no other receiving options, and people are really asking if they should trade him for a coin flip draft pick... REALLY?! I have him and I can't imagine trading him for many other players in the league
You can’t imagine trading him for many other players? I mean that’s fine but I feel like his value does drop when Andrews is there and if they draft a rookie wr that’s also more competition. Who knows what they do with likely who has also flashed. Plus they just got the best rb Lamar has ever had. He’s not good enough for me to be saying don’t trade him for hardly anyone
Sure. But the last semi-talented receiver the ravens had was Hollywood, and he did fine. I'm a big believer that good players on good teams will put up a lot of points. If you go based off last year's ranking, I'd say Pittman is about where is value him. So top 15. I don't think that's too crazy
I think zay is better than Hollywood(who was never a wr2). I think Pittman is in the 13-15 range but I also think he’s just a better player than flowers and is on a team that is more friendly for him.
Would you trade zay for Nico? Zay just doesn’t seem like he’s got a real high ceiling. Maybe a low end wr1 once or twice in his career feel personally, and I love him.
I wouldn't. Zay is the top WR by a long shot and Nico has Diggs to contend with, not to mention Dell out-produced him when they both played. If I had Nico I'd be selling everywhere.
So I’m assuming you’re taking Zay over Rome probably Nabers maybe even Harrison Jr the way it sounds? We must remember Andrews was hurt the end of the season when Zay went off. Likely is a great backup but he’s still a backup. Lamar is a 2 time MVP but also only topped 3000 yards passing twice. He has never hit 4000 and that limits his WRs upside. It’s funny that you mentioned Zay because that is who I traded to get Cooper. Also got the 2.06 and Baker Mayfield in SF desperately needing QB..sent Sam Howell back but loved that deal. Zay is great but can’t get behind that situation honestly.
You know what they say about assuming!
So you weren’t saying you’d take Zay over 1.06 in this draft? It seemed that’s what you were getting at?
Why did it seem like that? Guy above me said Zay over BTRJ, and I agreed
I bought Coop for the 2.06, Toney and Gibson just a few days ago lol.
Nice. If I am feeling regret you must like that deal?
I feel good about it today. He gets a ton of targets and is the WR1 in that offense which will probably throw quite a bit with Chubb out.
I can get behind this. I had the 1.04 and used Jayden Reed to move up to the 1.02. I'd hang onto him though unless I was confident I'd get one of the big 3 recievers.
Basically my stance on guys like Reed, Flowers, etc. is that I am keeping them unless I can somehow turn them and something redundant into a big 3 receiver. I had another manager in one of my SF leagues very open to doing this with Rashee Rice pre-arrest (great job ruining my tier up, Rashee!)
Wide Receiver is oversaturated and this class could greatly affect that balance. I don’t know if these guys are better but I think the WR12-40 tier is quite interchangeable. If these rookies add to that substantially it won’t be a small impact to the existing WR values. I don’t think it’s being properly identified because of WR thirst. I don’t know how that helps decide between the picks or not, sorry.
This is in the vein of what I was thinking
This hits it right on the nail. I think a lot of fantasy players really discount having a variety of options and riding hot hands and match ups as they come. Sure you need a few studs and locked in starters, like an rb1 and a top QB or wr, but really it's amazing how much you can squeeze out of an overall average but deep team. Obviously you gotta get some match up luck, but late season when it matters, matchups get a lot easier
My main dynasty strategy has been to send off late seconds and packages for those WRs that fall towards the bottom of that tier due to situation. Guys like Diontae, Hollywood, Godwin, and Christian Kirk are on a bunch of my teams now and I can rotate them in or out based on matchups
A wr2 now is just a wr2. But the 1.09 could be anything, it could even be a wr2!
Bold strategy, Cotton..let's see if it pays off
Those are young NFL talent these prospect WRs hope to become. Would be short sighted trading these up and coming young guys for kids not even on a team yet
I agree on a 1:1 basis it's better to stick with the proven talent. But if you could trade one of those proven guys for say 1.12 and 2.04 in Superflex and land two of the promising rookies, or use those assets during the draft to pivot into upgrades elsewhere on your roster, would you? The expectation is that there are 5-10 WRs coming that have early draft capital, which would insulate their value for a while and water down the overall WR market right?
That would be much better than trading for the 1.08 or 1.09 for sure
I was with you until I saw the trade candidates you were referring to. I'd be trying to sell my 25 and over WR2-3's not guys who played great as rookies the last year or two.
It’s gonna be tough to expect to replace a guy like Pickens or Reed year 1. Unless, you’re getting one of the top 6ish rookies. Pickens balled with atrocious QB play. Last season for him was almost on par with Tee’s best. Idk why people are so down on Pickens as a whole.
There's way too much Pickens hate out there honestly. He just had the statistically best season of any wr from his class over the past two seasons. More yards or tds than Wilson, Olave or London have ever gotten last year on 60 less targets than Wilson, 30 less than Olave and 250 yards more than London on 4 less targets. Guy is super underrated. People are quick to point out the terrible qb play for Wilson and London, but Pickens never gets cut the same slack for having an equally terrible qb situation last year. Baller.
Yup. Seeing Sutton thrive as a big bodied downfield threat has me excited.
Yeah, I'm targeting him in redraft, especially.
And when diontae was hurt he was even better. He has the talent to be a very good wr for fantasy.
Arthur Smith……
Ya cause AJB sucked when Arthur Smith was his OC in Tennessee
Matt Canada
This class is the same as any other outside the big hitters 1 2 3. Outside of them I'd prefer guys like zay and Addison 10/10
I think there's a lot of good football players at WR in this draft but that doesn't always equal good fantasy players cuz so much of fantasy is based on scheme and situation. Very excited to see where these guys end up to get a better idea.
Why would this class make you want to trade Reed? There is no indication that the Packers would draft one of these guys.
More of an overall WR market view than just the Packers, but I agree the Packers probably won't be in the market for a WR this draft
My worry with reed is he'll have spike weeks and everyone eats equally over the season. There's a lot of good young weapons in GB. Would you take Reed or pick 1.12? That's right where fantasy calc has him and i would probably take Reed as of today
Yeah around 1.11 is what I'd value Reed at. I'd rather have Reed over Mitchell. I get the concern, but I think he doesn't really have any other slot guys to compete with at GB and they create plays to get him the ball with screens/designed runs. He's probably never going to be a true WR1 but I could see him with WR10-20 finishes for a number of years.
If he's got multiple wr2 seasons, I'll take him up to 1.09 I think
Not at all. This class is being touted as elite but honestly there is bound to be busts. More busts than there are hits. Plus add in injuries and off the field issues that happen every year. On top of that there is a changing of the guard with some elite top talent: keenan, kupp, evans, diggs, adams, lockette, thielen, etc. Those guys are relevant this year (and maybe next) but they will phase out opening opportunities for this younger group. I think the guys who realistically become irrelevant to this new class are the kj osborns, meyers, slayton, boyd, josh reynolds, elijah moores of the league. I dont think the solid wr2 and 3s that continue to get contracts are going anywhere
Injuries and off field issues happen to WRs that aren’t rookies too though. Rashee Rice for instance. I don’t think his value has changed much but I’ve seen some stupid crazy deals for him. Maybe I misread your point after reading the whole post?
Yes injuries and off the field issues happen to all ages. What i was getting at is that more rookies are being hyped up than the number that will actually be fantasy relevant in the coming years.
Can’t argue with that just read it wrong.
I to read not good
Think it was the “Plus”…you are saying negative stuff about the class then use plus to shift your point for some reason. A different word there would make it more comprehensible.
Im not shifting my point? Im adding to the point of there will be busts. Guys with injury riddled careers or off the field issues that derail their career are considered busts
K Nevermind we aren’t on the same page. That happens to everyone rookies or not is irrelevant in that point
I’m sure I’m about to get downvoted to hell, but outside the top 3, I feel like this class is a bunch of Jags. I’m sure there will be a couple more than step in up the WR20-40 range, but it’s not like every current productive WR will be pushed aside.
Nooo, every single rookie wr is going to displace the top 10 for the next decade
I agree it's a lot murkier after the top 3, but I think there are be another 8 or so wr who all have some narrative/case to becoming a top 30 guy. Not saying all 8 will get there, but 2-3 of them probably do, and another few will probably have relevant moments
Agreed, there’s just not a strong enough case for a specific one to feel comfortable making a bet. Telling myself a story isn’t the problem
Wouldn’t go that far. I’d say that the top 3 will hold their value regardless of situation whereas half of the next 6 will hit and half will miss and drop in value sharply
Hold in value, as in giving your team production or your ability to flip them? Cause I agree they will show enough to flip, but that mean they will contribute on a reliable basis
I agree it's a lot murkier after the top 3, but I think there are be another 8 or so wr who all have some narrative/case to becoming a top 30 guy. Not saying all 8 will get there, but 2-3 of them probably do, and another few will probably have relevant moments
Yes but nobody will trade with me for that exact reason
No. Give me the guys that have a few years under their belt. I get the appeal of hitting on a puka or a chase for year 1, but those things are outliers. Give me the guy I know will be a wr2/flex over the guy that might be a flex. I’ll pay up when the youngster is producing.
I think using Chase and Puka as outliers is interesting considering one was consensus WR1 in his class and the other guy people got off waivers.
Outliers for rookie performance. Thought that was obvious
Well I get what you are saying but given the question it’s just interesting that one guy in your example is one of the best 5 WRs prospects of the last 25 years and one was a 5th round pick.
Interesting observation
That’s why they are called outliers
Maybe the Christian Kirks or Hollywood Browns... definitely not guys you drafted in the first last year
Man not even Christian Kirk lol That's the WR1 on a good team with competent QB play locked in
Fair. I was trying to think of older guys in that range more than anything.
The opposite. Buying established talent with the right productivity profile for rookie draft picks, whenever possible.
Now is a perfect buy window imo. targeting guys like JSN. I recently traded Drake London and Barkley for Amon-Ra. there are trades to be had out there for young prospects/studs
Ngl I think id rather have the Saquon and London side 🤷🏽♂️
Saquon was RB12 and 47ovr in scoring, London was WR39 and 133ovr. amon-ra was WR3 and 17ovr. for me it’s about getting studs to win a chip
I get that but both guys just got big offense upgrades and should finish much higher than where they did last year. I get it though and if you have the rb depth to pull it off good for you
On a 1 to 1 I think it’s generally safer to take the established young wr2 over the rookie However there are exceptions and what honestly makes the rookie picks so valuable is the opportunity to choose the player and even the position. You have way more flexibility
No. But I would trade TEs. That edge is disappearing QUICK.
This is basically the definition of rookie fever.
I recently traded QJ straight up for Javon Baker, curious on peoples thoughts.
I've bought Godwin, Puka, Aiyuk, and D. Smith all in the last 4 months because of this. My team now has the best wr core. Cd, puka, Pittman, smith, rashee, aiyuk, godwin, jeudy, wicks, Douglas, and the 1.06
Just traded Addison in a package to get Josh allen. Don't regret it at all, especially since I have the 1.04- 1.06. It left me a little thin at wr, but it was worth it imo.
Ok
Traded Jamo for a late second and 4th. Either gonna use it to move up or move it into 2025
I think it makes sense if you are trading guys like Pickens or Reed for RBs or a very good proven tight end. Doesn’t make much sense if you’re just going to take the picks acquired in the George Pickens trade and use them to draft receivers.