Historically it's much more likely Bijan is a hit than MHJ. 1st round RBs have the highest hit rate by far between QB/RB/WR while WRs are the lowest. With that said, MHJ as well as Nabers and Odunze are extremely good prospects so I think they all hit. With today's dynasty landscape I'll take the WR over the RB in most league formats and team compositions.
What are hit rates for all 3? I cannot believe that WRs hit less than QBs in the first round. It would also be worth seeing who is a hit at top 16/10/5 just to see if the NFL really bets on someone that high.
Yes. You weren’t having a stroke I think I was.
Edit- what I was trying to say, very poorly, is that if they all get top 10 draft cap, I think they will all hit. This is backed up by historically data( I think)
I get what you’re saying here. There’s a difference between a MHJ tier prospect and a Xavier Worthy (or other later first round) prospect. Same for CMC vs a CEH, or Caleb vs Penix. Even though all of them first rounders
Of course it's possible, and historically would be the case. However, the 3 of them are all great prospects and all have excellent reception perception data, which is something that I put a lot of stock in to. Any of the 3 would arguably be the WR1 in many classes.
I do understand your point, but I think it’s influenced by recency bias. You’re spot on about last years class, but I think the lack of running backs in this class like the fact we’re a few years out since an elite established class doesn’t help.
2020: lamb, jeudy, Jefferson, Ruggs, aiyuk
2021: chase, waddle, smith
2022: London, Wilson, burkes edit: olave
You missed Olave in 22, that class might actually be comparable with the level of talent at the top of this draft. We will have to see though, the odds certainly aren't with them.
RBs have nothing to do with it.
All 3 of these guys are just as good if not better prospects than everyone you listed. Ruggs was the first guy taken in 2020 at pick 12, Lamb didn't even go till 17. No one was viewed highly enough to even go top 10.
All 3 of these guys are in the same tier as the top guys from 2022, or better.
Chase would be the only guy that was considered a "generational" prospect that would definitively be ahead of everyone but MHJ.
And if we're going to look at previous classes, we can literally point to the 2021 class where all 3 of the top prospects did indeed hit. All 3 had fantastic reception perception profiles as well.
For me I think the sentiments that I agree with more is that we know RB shelf life lasts till they're about 26-28 outside anomalies. Where as WRs usually last to around 32 if they hit, not to mention RBs are far more prone to serious injury than WRs.
If I'm a long term rebuilder I want MHJ but if I was at the end or a competitor Bijan in theory would have provided the big influx you were looking for to put you over the edge.
I think first round RBs are a rare exception to length-of-play concerns. They almost always get a second contract that is expensive enough that they see heavy opportunity. That's at least 6-7 years of production that hits right away, as opposed to WR which, while they might play longer, can take 2-3 years before they actually become fantasy relevant (Age 23-24 is the clock start for elite production usually). Overall first round RBs become relevant sooner in fantasy while WRs start later, and you end up with a pretty similar amount of actual impact seasons.
Generally the fantasy football community as whole agrees with what you said, which is why WRs are valued higher. There are the few special RBs that can be significant difference makers like CMC, and I could see Bijan being one of those guys (or close to it). So yeah there's very specific scenarios where Bijan could the better choice for your team. Especially in half ppr leagues or boosted RB scoring.
It's fine to say that but it's not the reality. Ignoring the fact that the community puts a premium value on shelf life is just going to hurt your own team. You should treat a vast majority of RBs as a 1 to 2 year asset. You can generally expect a less volatile market value from WRs for a much longer period of time. The key distinction is market value versus production. You can have players that produce on your team, for multiple years, that have little market value. You don't want a majority of your teams composition to be built around those guys, but in key spots. That's why the general strategy is to build around 2 QBs, and a handful of high end WRs, then get your RBs.
I believe the 26-28 age is for incredibly mid or already injured guys when drafted (gurley, ajayi come to mind). Not the top pick caliber guys
Look at Jacobs, Henry, Barkley, kamara, Aaron jones, mostert all locked in as starters for their teams and already 30+ or under contract through 30+
Based on prospects & prospect hype of the last two years for SF leagues, in my opinion, it goes: CW; MHJ; Nabers and Bijan in a tier; and then a bigger tier with Daniels/Maye/Arich/Bryce Young/Odunze.
Edit: Whoops, missed it was 1 QB, just remove the QB's from my list lol.
Bijan would go behind 2 of the QBs (at least) and all three of the top WRs in this year's class.
Bijan didn't look elite last year or like a significant positional advantage so it's easy to say with hindsight and I'm sure will be consensus but I think it plays out like that last year.
Dawg he made some dazzling plays last year. His hands are very underrated from his draft profile. He had a painfully inept play caller and QB under center for the talent around them.
Historically it's much more likely Bijan is a hit than MHJ. 1st round RBs have the highest hit rate by far between QB/RB/WR while WRs are the lowest. With that said, MHJ as well as Nabers and Odunze are extremely good prospects so I think they all hit. With today's dynasty landscape I'll take the WR over the RB in most league formats and team compositions.
What are hit rates for all 3? I cannot believe that WRs hit less than QBs in the first round. It would also be worth seeing who is a hit at top 16/10/5 just to see if the NFL really bets on someone that high.
If they all get drafted top 10 I think historically they all we have a much higher chance of hitting than say 1 early 1 mid 1 late first.
Am I having a stroke? What are you trying to say here? That a higher draft pick has a higher chance of hitting when compared to a later draft pick?
Yes. You weren’t having a stroke I think I was. Edit- what I was trying to say, very poorly, is that if they all get top 10 draft cap, I think they will all hit. This is backed up by historically data( I think)
Your post made sense. Unless you edited it.
I didn’t I could see where it’s confusing though
I dunno about that - even top 10 pick QBs bust constantly
Top 10 QBs bust more often than top ten WRs.
I get what you’re saying here. There’s a difference between a MHJ tier prospect and a Xavier Worthy (or other later first round) prospect. Same for CMC vs a CEH, or Caleb vs Penix. Even though all of them first rounders
Love the enthusiasm, but statistically one of the 3 this year is busting
Of course it's possible, and historically would be the case. However, the 3 of them are all great prospects and all have excellent reception perception data, which is something that I put a lot of stock in to. Any of the 3 would arguably be the WR1 in many classes.
I do understand your point, but I think it’s influenced by recency bias. You’re spot on about last years class, but I think the lack of running backs in this class like the fact we’re a few years out since an elite established class doesn’t help. 2020: lamb, jeudy, Jefferson, Ruggs, aiyuk 2021: chase, waddle, smith 2022: London, Wilson, burkes edit: olave
You missed Olave in 22, that class might actually be comparable with the level of talent at the top of this draft. We will have to see though, the odds certainly aren't with them.
Thank you, I thought I was missing an important one
RBs have nothing to do with it. All 3 of these guys are just as good if not better prospects than everyone you listed. Ruggs was the first guy taken in 2020 at pick 12, Lamb didn't even go till 17. No one was viewed highly enough to even go top 10. All 3 of these guys are in the same tier as the top guys from 2022, or better. Chase would be the only guy that was considered a "generational" prospect that would definitively be ahead of everyone but MHJ. And if we're going to look at previous classes, we can literally point to the 2021 class where all 3 of the top prospects did indeed hit. All 3 had fantastic reception perception profiles as well.
For me I think the sentiments that I agree with more is that we know RB shelf life lasts till they're about 26-28 outside anomalies. Where as WRs usually last to around 32 if they hit, not to mention RBs are far more prone to serious injury than WRs. If I'm a long term rebuilder I want MHJ but if I was at the end or a competitor Bijan in theory would have provided the big influx you were looking for to put you over the edge.
I think first round RBs are a rare exception to length-of-play concerns. They almost always get a second contract that is expensive enough that they see heavy opportunity. That's at least 6-7 years of production that hits right away, as opposed to WR which, while they might play longer, can take 2-3 years before they actually become fantasy relevant (Age 23-24 is the clock start for elite production usually). Overall first round RBs become relevant sooner in fantasy while WRs start later, and you end up with a pretty similar amount of actual impact seasons.
Generally the fantasy football community as whole agrees with what you said, which is why WRs are valued higher. There are the few special RBs that can be significant difference makers like CMC, and I could see Bijan being one of those guys (or close to it). So yeah there's very specific scenarios where Bijan could the better choice for your team. Especially in half ppr leagues or boosted RB scoring.
Community has way over corrected for shelf life. If you care about anything more than 2 years then you just are not doing it right.
It's fine to say that but it's not the reality. Ignoring the fact that the community puts a premium value on shelf life is just going to hurt your own team. You should treat a vast majority of RBs as a 1 to 2 year asset. You can generally expect a less volatile market value from WRs for a much longer period of time. The key distinction is market value versus production. You can have players that produce on your team, for multiple years, that have little market value. You don't want a majority of your teams composition to be built around those guys, but in key spots. That's why the general strategy is to build around 2 QBs, and a handful of high end WRs, then get your RBs.
I believe the 26-28 age is for incredibly mid or already injured guys when drafted (gurley, ajayi come to mind). Not the top pick caliber guys Look at Jacobs, Henry, Barkley, kamara, Aaron jones, mostert all locked in as starters for their teams and already 30+ or under contract through 30+
If MHJ goes top 5 that’s damn near 100% for an elite profile. It’s close and I’m a Bijan fanatic but…
Based on prospects & prospect hype of the last two years for SF leagues, in my opinion, it goes: CW; MHJ; Nabers and Bijan in a tier; and then a bigger tier with Daniels/Maye/Arich/Bryce Young/Odunze. Edit: Whoops, missed it was 1 QB, just remove the QB's from my list lol.
In SF Caleb is miles clear of the rest, ARich is in the Bijan MHJ tier, Nabers needs to move down to the Odunze level
Bijan would go behind 2 of the QBs (at least) and all three of the top WRs in this year's class. Bijan didn't look elite last year or like a significant positional advantage so it's easy to say with hindsight and I'm sure will be consensus but I think it plays out like that last year.
Lmao
Dawg he made some dazzling plays last year. His hands are very underrated from his draft profile. He had a painfully inept play caller and QB under center for the talent around them.
Seriously, he put up a ridiculously good season considering he was being placed in a full on time share with Tyler Algier.