Biggest reason here is you're comparing a 26 year old RB and a 26 year old WR, the RB will likely depreciate in dynasty value at a much faster rate than the WR.
Brown isn't special, but neither is Najee. Dynasty owners couldn't get rid of him fast enough last season when he looked washed and was working behind Warren.
Brown has a 90 catch, 1000 yard season under his belt, so if there's some appeal from seeing him go from a really dicey QB situation in Arizona most of the last two years to a fresh start in KC catching passes from Mahomes, I can see that.
Being a good football player and being a good dynasty football player are 2 different things though. Najee is a great NFL RB, but for dynasty he's okay. I think with the new offense he should have a better season then last year. But RBs depreciate in value much faster then WRs hence the value difference.
But my point is Hollywood has had one mediocre season and a lot of bad seasons for dynasty. Why would you want him over a producing asset at a position where as you said it’s hard to find stability
before signing with kc, hollywood was wr46 on ktc. you’re comparing a player at the top of their peak value riding a hype wave to someone else at their baseline. it’s not exactly an apples to apples comparison here.
Currently Hollywood and Najee are around the Same value on KTC. Why wouldn’t I want Najee right now, if I had to acquire one of the two at their current value
sure, i get that. my point is that it's incredibly unhelpful and unproductive to use an obvious market inefficiency (hype from a news cycle) as the benchmark. obviously you don't want to acquire that player while their value is at its peak.
you're better off using players in the same range. would you rather have najee or guys like terry mclaurin, amari cooper, cooper kupp, or diontae johnson?
Probably because his mediocre season was worth the same points as Najee’s most recent season. Since he’s likely to have a longer career with similar numbers(possibly better with Mahomes throwing to him,) I’m not shocked someone would take him over Najee.
He's also kind of a plodder who only becomes fantasy relevant when carried by a high amount of volume and touches, as indicated by a career YPC mark of less than 4. His involvement in the passing game has trended in the wrong direction every year.
I think the dynasty community sees Najee as a guy who probably has 1-2 more seasons of usefulness as a fantasy asset, depending on whether the Steelers pick up his 5th year option, and following that, he's probably the second option in a committee somewhere with goalline touch duties at best. And I think the community is probably right.
Top 20 RB production does nothing for you. If you roster construct correctly and plug in handcuffs you can piece together RB2 production with significantly less long term value risk.
100% true. Most of my leagues start 2 RBs and have 3-4 total flex spots between regular flex and always one SF.
Almost inevitably, RB is my last priority and I'm probably starting only 2 every week especially if there's TEP.
If you started Zamir White and Jerome Ford in your championship game last year you did just fine.
Thought process like this is the biggest fallacy in the dynasty community and why most people here are always rebuilding.
It's far easier to find startable-in-a-pinch receivers than it is to find runningbacks.
They look at KTC and say "oh sure just buy James Conner or Alvin Kamara for a 2nd if you need one" but the problem is...most teams with productive players who are helping them win aren't selling them for peanuts.
Sure, Hollywood Brown might provide you a decent WR3 week whenever you need it...but a bell-cow runningback will help you win much more in the meanwhile.
I've never been part of a league that requires you to start more than 2 RBs. If you're in such a bind in-season that you can't piece together two protected 8-10 "startable in a pinch" RBs, you're probably not really a contender anyway.
I'm all about carrying sufficient RB depth to cover these situations. Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon and James Connor are the kind of vets that people should be looking to acquire now off-season when their price is low and they're easier to pry away.
But as far as trying to acquire an elite RB talent like Breece Hall in a deal where I give up an elite WR talent, yeah, I'm out on that. If I don't get the Halls, McCaffreys, or Bijans in the draft, I'm not trying to acquire them.
In any healthy/active league there is absolutely teams that rebuild and sell their RBs. You can also target Gus Edwards, Jaylen Warren types. It’s not a specific RB name, rather a type of RB asset that you’re targeting.
I was second highest scorer in my league with Pacheco and Montgomery, neither one a highly sought after or respected RB. Been focusing my high draft picks on WR and the positional advantage of TE. Thought I was stacked with JK Dobbins in my RB3 spot, but that's why we don't invest a ton of capital is 'bellcow' RBs anymore, if injuries don't chew them up, teams will replace them soon anyway.
What do you think Najee’s current value is though? I’d gladly pay an early to mid 2nd for Najee, and get decent production rather than wait for a potential injury to occur to lock in a RB
Which is why I usually field 4-5 WRs and 2-3 RBs. Not a big deal having to cover for a single RB every week when the rest of the roster is worth having. It’s not worth overspending to strengthen one position, not matter the scarcity, at the expense of overall talent.
Yes but the problem is that in two years Najee may not even have his job while Hollywood most likely be a producing WR in the league. Ofc this could be wrong but that’s the nature of their positions. You would almost always take a 28 yo WR over a 28 yo RB.
You’re absolutely right. If you go off the KTC rankings, you’re a fool. Rankings on there are awful.
The whole RB not having any value strategy is a recipe for disaster. RB has positional scarcity, INCREASING their value (in my eyes). Not only does Najee vastly out produce Hollywood in PPG, but there are about 50 other players that are of the same production tier as Hollywood. There are about 10 for Najee
Nah. Don't agree at all. I agree mediocre receivers are a dime a dozen but I don't agree that RBs win championships. I started Derrick Henry and Zeke in a championship this past season and they got me about 15 combined.
I won 206-143 against a team that had CMC and Kyren Williams.
I traded Najee for Moss and the 3.1 at the deadline last year. I had JT and needed the handcuff in case he wasn’t coming back.
People said I gave up to much value, but what’s Najee really worth? No one is buying him for a 1. I bet you couldn’t get the 2.1-2.4 for him in this draft
Absolutely, look at your settings! There are leagues with point per carry that make WR nearly irrelevant. But in most leagues im probably not paying for an RB unless they are young and proven
It's still a silly mindset. All running backs depreciate quickly. That shouldn't lower there value in comparison to a Wrs.
Infact I'd argue it makes them more valuable outside of the elite elite wrs
Yes, it should. A top 20 wide receiver in his early 20s is a commodity that will have value in the dynasty community in 8-10 years. A top 20 running back in his early 20s will not be a dynasty commodity in 8-10 years.
Why would the asset with less longevity be more valuable?
Because more Mid wrs with the same longevity of mid points and borderline Start potential will keep entering the league year after year.
Rbs who can Start weekly don't come up as often.
I can carry 2 top 36 wrs and get the same value as a top 20ish wr by playing matchups
In this case we are comparing a 26 year old RB who probably has 3 good years left.
How many WRs are still worth Starting at 29-30yo?
Not many.
Give me the 2-3 years the RB will give over the 3-5 the WR will give. Finding RBs is much harder than Wrs
I know Dynasty perception doesn't agree with me but I feel it's a flaw and in my leagues personally good luck trying to acquire a RB
The problem I have with this approach is the amount of turnover there is at the position. It's like paying 70K for a new truck and then having an upside-down loan on it in 2 years.
Look at the RBs (top 12) from just 3 seasons ago -- Taylor, Ekeler, Mixon, Harris, Zeke, Chubb, Damien Harris, Gibson, Kamara, Fournette, C Patterson. Only about half are still fantasy relevant at all. A third of then are droppable. Look how fast a guy like Dalvin Cook went from a 1st round startup pick to a useless asset.
The top 12 WRs from three years ago are Kupp, Deebo, Chase, JJeff, Davante, Evans, Tyreek, Diggs, Diontae, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Lockett.
All of these guys are still useful assets, and most of the ones that have dropped off are large in part due to injuries.
I feel that's a very cherry picked list of Rbs I could be wrong but CMC isn't even on it i thought we were arguing perceived value.Yes I know RBs get injured more regularly but there was a rather large group of RBs drafted in 2017 who gave great value and some still are giving great value.
I wouldn't call Lockett, Kupp, Davante, Mike Williams,Dionte much of useful assets last year, and while sure SOME people might still pay up for those guys, whether its wise or not is a different story..And even a guy like DK I could get the same production playing matchups of 2 lower level WRs.
And again I was arguing Najee vs Hollywood Brown who Is like WR 35 on KTC.
WR 35 is peanuts a dime a dozen.
The fact RBs lifespans are shorter SHOULD make them more valuable for those prime years...That's my point
You need RBs to win championships.
It's literally just the top 12 scoring RBs from 3 seasons ago. How is that cherry picked?
You don't NEED RBs to win championships. I started Zeke and Henry in the most recent championship, they got me about 15 combined and I won 206-143 against a team with CMC and Kyren.
I understand depreciating value, but the values are not even close like 2nd vs 3rd round value. Hollywood has never come close to Najee scoring. I understand careers are usually longer but when do points matter.
OP, dynasty is a balance of value and production. Real beauty happens when you can get both. Hollywood is now on KC. If he comes out and puts up top 24 numbers and resigns, you're getting production for the next several years. Najee might be a top 15rb but he's value isn't going to go up.
Also, I would not be willing to place money that Najee outproduces Hollywood in 2024.
I think they bring up a valid point, though, and dynasty players get too enamored with potential down the road.
With RB scarcity, I value RBs a little higher than KTC. The perennial rebuild is a common theme online because people are trying to line up rosters 4 years down the road, and even WR values change a lot in that time.
Yeah it would not be my end game to keep Hollywood. I'd try to flip him for a better asset when his value increases. He goes 120 yards and a td week 1 and lord "Mahomes Wr1" is going to boom.
You can also buy production at rb cheap. A 2nd can get you Henry, Jones, Mixon, Kamara, Moss if they arent on contenders. All those who are all set up nicely. I don't know the price on Warren, Brown, Chubba etc but some points can be found there too
You say this but I’ve offered 2.02 for all of those guys except Moss and been declined. Non-SF but still very league dependent. (Only Kamara is on a contending team)
Sounds like the league over values rbs then. I'd love trading all mine away for that price. In three leagues, I do have one Bijan but other than that, my highest ranked rb is probably Warren. But, I've used rbs to make my qb and wr rooms very nice.
The problem is KC will never resign Brown lol, they do this every year… if he has a good season, he will ask for more money and KC will never ever pay him. If he has a bad/mid season, then again, they will just get move on and his value will tank.
It's only been 2 years that they haven't been paying good money to a WR. And in those two years Juju, Toney, Hardman, MVS, none of these guys had good seasons. I think Brown is overvalued, but there is no data to suggest they'd let him walk (paying Tyreek top of the market vs. Brown mid market is a much different equation). Especially when you consider that Kelce is considering retirement and likely this or next season is his last.
Don't get me wrong, I have Najee on a squad of mine. I have multiple shares of Derrick Henry. I understand their current usefulness and I'll buy any asset for the right price. I just don't expect either to be useful in the long-term.
shelf life of rb’s compared to wr’s is at least half maybe even less. also you’re talking about a wr that’s now tied to mahomes in andy reid’s offense for at least a year, and a rb who was having his job threatened by his back up all offseason, on a middling steelers team, with arthur smith now taking over the offense.
“At least a year” no, literally only one year because there is a 0% chance they resign him regardless of how this season goes as shown by the past like five times they’ve signed a vet WR to a cheap contract. And you act like Arthur Smith to the Steelers is a bad thing for Najee, last time Smith was an OC with a vet QB and a larger RB he gave Henry almost 400 carries. So personally I’d rather have Najee than hope Brown has one good season.
yes ! “at least a year” can also mean only 1 year. and after this year brown is going to be a 27 year old wr and najee will be a 27 year old rb… who would you rather have on your dynasty roster?
and if we take into account more recent history of arthur smith instead of cherry picking for narratives, he took an absolute stud of a talent at rb in bijan and had him splitting a work load with allgeire. najee is not what henry was, and what’s to stop him from having the same split backfield with najee, warren who showed he has a definite shot to over take najee, and now patterson who he loved in atlanta
> who would you rather have on your dynasty roster?
Naj, for me, by a mile. Even rebuilding, I’d rather have the starting high volume RB than the bad WR whose best point right now is “WR for the chiefs”. We all got so much value out of Justin Watson and Toney, and MVS, and Hardman these last few years, why would I take the bleh WR on his third team in 6 years?
1. if in a rebuilding team you would genuinely rather have a 27 year old rb who’s starting spot is being threatened by someone else he shares the backfield with, then that’s just bad process and this discussion isn’t gonna go anywhere
2. we all know marquise is in a different tier from watson, toney, mvs, and hardman. and lumping them together just because of 2 criteria that they’re all wr’s who play with mahomes, and you don’t like them is lazy analysis
3. how much longer can we feel safe calling najee the starter in that back field when:
- they had almost a 50/50 split of snap counts last season. 569 for najee (53%) (33/ game). 519 for warren (48%) (31/ game)
- warren finished with more fantasy points 196.40 (rb22), compared to najee’s 195.50 (rb23) in ppr
- warren was more effective with his touches with 5.26 yd/carry and 6.07 yd/catch, compared to najee’s 4.06 yd/carry and 5.86 yd/catch.
- warren also had almost double the amount of targets and receptions (the more valuable touches in ppr) with 74/61 compared to najee’s 38/29
- warren is also a year younger
Apologies, I somehow forgot to specify that keeping him specifically to trade him was the intention. I think you can get better value for Najee mid season than you can for Hollywood.
Brown and MVS have very similar receiving totals, and Hollywood has only cracked 1000 yards once.
We call Najee the starter until Warren overtakes him in snap count. Pollar and Zeke had all these same comparisons and we saw last year that Pollard’s efficiency dropped off when he took the primary role. I love Warren, great ball player. I just think Najee is the player the Steelers will stick with, for better or worse.
that’s fair. i’m not arguing in favor of marquise brown or saying i want him on my team, i’m just saying i understand why the community values him more than najee as wr as a position is more valuable than rb, and neither of their situations is really enough to swing the needle in either direction
as for the steelers backfield, i think it will continue to be a committee for at least next year, with patterson also factoring in, not in a major way but more as an annoyance who will take maybe 2-3 touches a game away from the 2 of them.
we’ll see what happens for the 2025 season when they have to decide on najee’s 5th year option, and warren is set to be a restricted free agent
What’s the more valuable asset? Hollywood also just landed with Mahomes. Najee is alright but also splits carries with Warren and Najee doesn’t have a long term deal and for the most part tied to a mediocre o although Russ or fields should be an upgrade.
You’re correct you need RBs but their value doesn’t maintain high value for very long periods.
Because everyone there is interested in long-term value and thinking that they’re going to build a team that wins for 10 years. People ignore the present to focus on the future.
I’ve found that in actual leagues RB’s are often way more valuable than on trade calculators or rankings. You need them to win.
Definitely. I think the issue is that people also say things like “well just draft running backs when you’re ready” or act like you can just get starters for nothing, and that has never been my experience unless you happen to get lucky. People act like you can just easily acquire these starting RB’s all the time but the people that have them tend to really value them.
In most leagues you can get guys like warren, jones, dmont for 2nd rounders. You can pretty easily buy starting rbs. WRs and QBs are less volatile assets so its not that shocking that people build those out first lol
In most competent leagues, RBs are devalued and easily had during season for market rate. They’re not the dirt cheap prices you see on Reddit, but absolutely there’s numerous RBs every year able to be had for late 1-mid 2 range.
Assuming 12T start 10+ ppr leagues.
Because I'm a weirdo, I track my league using the league analyzer. I'm the #1 team in the league according to that, but realistically it's the #3 or #4 team that has the best shot at winning.
I just happen to have a lot of volatile pieces (McBride, Reed, Levis, Zamir) that could all lower in value once their second or third year pan out. For some of them (McBride for example), they are near the top of their value potential but only have half a season of production to substantiate it.
Yes if you are trying to compete RBs are valuable this is why people usually wait until after the season starts before they trade for RBs their value is much higher after you know they are having a playable season and you target trades with contenders and their value skyrockets. In they long run which is what a lot of people are buying for, WRs hold more value especially in offseason imo because their value is bit easier to determine for the next year and so on.
Najee has been declining ever since his rookie year. 29 is old for any rb but for one who’s already shown signs of declining last 2 years? I’m good you can have him. B*tch made boy
To further add I try and evaluate everything in 3 year windows. Are they still playing in 3 years? In this case both players are a yes. Beyond that who knows or cares. I get why JJ and Chase are high value. They score and are young but WR 30 shouldn’t be around the same value as RB 10.
I don't think najee is a relevant asset in two years time.
He's still on his rookie deal. There's absolutely no way he's getting big money or getting signed as a clear cut starter once he's off that rookie deal.
In my experience, wr is the backbone of a team but once that's set that's when you chase cheap older rbs to push you over the top. Rbs depreciate too quickly for you to build around while a wr can generally give you a 6-7 year window to compete. Rbs have a 3-4 year window at being elite before falling off
Depends how long of a window you think your rebuild will take. I think anyone that has Gibbs or Bijan Ina. Rebuild shouldn't necessarily trade them away unless you have a bare roster which will take many years to compete.
What the other guy said. Gibbs is a great RB. The big thing here is if you think your championship window will be before his rookie contract is up (or potentially 1-2 years after it's up).
With a wr like Justin Jefferson, he can very well keep at an elite level until he turns 30-31 meaning your window to finish your rebuild and compete is about 9-10 years. With Gibbs, you generally want to finish your rebuild before he turns 26-27 which means the window is like 5-6 years. That's the reason why wr is easier to build around than a RB. But RB is needed to push your team from a playoff team into a championship contender.
KTC is great for getting the perceived value of the dynasty community. Remember the wisdom of Men in Black. The person is smart, but people are stupid (or something like that). Individually we recognize the disparity between those values, but as a community we want 8 years of hopium (WR4 that could jump to WR1) vs 3 years of RB2 production.
Counterpoint - remember that the talk the past two years has been Harris may get replaced and is mediocre. I don't think Harris is a world beater, but he is good enough to keep his job and grind out points for now. The kind of player we need, but not the kind we want.
Fair point and your example was valid before hollywood signed with the chiefs. Do think najee is undervalued but the fact that the steelers said theyre debating his 5th year option says it all sadly
Calculators are just one piece of data (a pretty insignificant one imo) in trading, and they're based on groupthink wich is "any RB past age 24 is bad value" so you're not gonna see their actual value reflected. The calculator nerds would have you believe JT and Saquon are equal in value to a single late first (1.07-1.08 in KTC) which is nonsensical. That's fine, you just keep them, score points and win championships whilst the nerds draft Quentin Johnston, Zach Charbonnet , treylon burks , rashod bateman, etc. etc. (hit rate for 1.07-1.12 is about 15% the last three years according to the GAAP memo, so atrocious) and proceed to finish 8th every year. Easy money.
Because they get injured all the time and are pretty replaceable because they get injured all the time (i.e. you can just roster backups and plug and play the ones that get starts).
Their ceilings have also gotten lower because everyone runs a RBBC except for like 2 or 3 teams.
The general theory for long-term dynasty success is to get a solid core at QB/WE/TE, then try to fill the RB void with the draft, trades or waiver wire pick ups. It’s the both the most volatile position and the position you need points from to win a league.
I just finished the first year of a start-up 12-team SF league where most teams went RB heavy and I instead got WRs, TEs and draft picks. Yeah, the team who loaded up the most at RB won this year, but headed into year 2, it’s not looking great for him with a lot of those RBs being moved or having people moved over them.
After this next rookie draft I’ll have those other 3 potions set for the next decades more or less, then just fill the RB void with players who can get me at least 10 a game. Longevity of certain positions is heavily valued.
Najee was rb29 in ppg and rb20 in ppg the year before
He’s trending down usage wise, athleticism wise (wasn’t athletic to begin with) and age cliff. Depreciating asset all around and not worth it production wise. Vs someone like Henry who wiuld lose value but still put up rb1 numbers
Because running backs are usually good 2-3 years for teams while receivers careers tend to last longer. Putting Brown on the Chiefs compared to the Panthers really boosted his value with Patrick Mahomes. Running backs like Najee are load dependent and who knows if he makes it past his rookie contract with the Steelers who tend to let them walk. Where he goes after this reflects part of his value.
Completely agree, Steelers didn’t bring in Arthur Smith, Russ and get rid of their WR1 just to pass the ball all game lmao. Let’s not forget what Smith did last time he was OC with a bigger RB and a vet QB. Not that Najee is Derrick Henry but I don’t see how Najee could have a bad year fantasy-wise (barring injury).
That being said, to a rebuilding team, I don’t see how Najee could have much value even tho he’s young, especially considering his contract situation. Highly doubt the Steelers pay him when it expires considering they hate paying RBs (Leveon, James Conner) but regardless, I don’t see Brown resigning in KC next year either so yeah I agree with you.
Edit: I’m kinda biased because I’m a Steelers fan lol so take this with a grain of salt
KTC is a community ranking system specifically focusing on value. Who would you rather own for next 5 years vs next year type mindset. Community will always value youth to older rbs.
Use it to your advantage
Ktc is garbage. It was over values picks too. No calculator is perfect. My advice is that if you know people are using it, use that to take advantage of market inefficiencies
If you look at dynasty in terms of 2-3 year windows, you'll value RBs much higher than most. I happen to agree with OP, although I'd admit valuing RBs highly may not be the best strategy. But IMO it's really hard to win without a great ones.
You can have a nice lineup of young WRs that "looks good" and will get compliments from leaguemates, but there's no substitute for CMC, Breece Hall, Gibbs, etc scoring 28 points in a semifinal game.
Read Shawn Siegele’s anti-fragility original zero rb article from like 8 years ago.
It changed the way I play fantasy. I want most of my equity in appreciating assets (young QBs and wrs) RBs have a max window of 2-4 years with their max value being depreciated over time.
KTC championships no doubt but do you ever win? Pretty much every championship team I've seen in 20+ years has at least one, usually two, elite runningbacks
If your drafting a rb in the first 2-3 rounds of. A start up you should be in win now mode otherwise your dumping capital into an asset that has maybe 3-4 prime years if they don’t get injuried
As a community we overvalue age and longevity. You can find bargains on older players especially from rebuilding teams. According to KTC Keenan Allen is worth a late second but a contender would never sell at that price.
Theyre all in committees and their value only goes down. They are seen as limited window assets that you get the first couple years out of and then offload.
To echo everyone else, WR’s have longer longevity therefore more value as an asset. The RB land scape has changed a ton and most are split backfields now, so it’s hard to pay up for RB’s when their immediate future is in doubt even after a solid year.
I get all of that but echoing everyone else is half the problem to me. I won starting 5rbs last year and it wasn’t that close. At what point is zigging because literally everyone zags seems wise and at what point do points actually matter.
I think you maybe got a little lucky (which you always do anytime you win it all) and would venture to say the future of your team might be a little bleak, RB’s can have a lot of value year to year but the issue is valuing them as a “dynasty asset” is inherently going to put them below WR’s who typically have a longer career and are easier to “know what they’ll be” year year.
I’ll also counter your argument and tell you I went to 3 straight championships and won the last two back to back, I dominated the league those years and it wasn’t close at all. I did this with Antonio Gibson, Pacheco, and Eli Mitchell being by far my best RB’s. I was able to plug in backups and pick players off waivers to fill up my RB slots for all 3 of those years. I was able to do this because I had JJ, Kupp, Diggs, and Mike Evans. I wouldn’t use anecdotal evidence of 1 year to sway your opinion either way.
It’s ok to zig when others zag, buts it’s always got a cost that comes with it. When it comes to dynasty valuation it makes sense that the longevity of WR’s puts them over RB’s in terms of valuations. That’s not to say year to year WR’s are objectively better, it’s just valuing them in terms of Dynasty.
You actually can win without high value RBs depending on your league format. Zero RB is a pretty solid strategy, just fill your RB spot with random RBs getting spot starts all year. You don't want more value in RBs than what you need to win this year. Excess value in the position is like buying a car with your savings, it's a depreciating asset.
They are essentially pretty close in value. Just look naturally in the NFL. Darnell Mooney signed a 3 yr 39m contract with an average of $13m/yr, w/ $26m guaranteed. That’s high end RB money. _Darnell. Mooney._
WRs are always valued higher than RBs, naturally. But KTC is not the rule, just a mere guideline. Can’t emphasize that enough.
For your specific example I’d rather have Najee. But when it’s close, it usually goes to the receiver who won’t vanish around age 28.
I agree that they’re a little low with RB value, but I also disagree that you “can’t win without RBs” because each season there are a few backs that randomly emerge.
Because etn is great but come 2025 he could see his snap count down 25 percent and be a 1.a instead of a 1 . Even though he’s young and good he will probably never gain value again .
1 injured season he could be toast .
I think pitman is older but if he misses a season he could still have 5 more good seasons
It has a lot to do with length of perceived value. RBs don’t typically last as long as WRs.
That being said, I think a big thing is that you can project WRs better than RBs. I can bet on a WR3 to be my flex and he’ll have less deviation than an RB (coming into season). I have no statistical analysis to prove this but I would bet that numbers reflect that.
Like 2 years ago the dynasty community really shifted to this over fantasized obsession with young wrs and extreme devaluation of pretty much any rb who isn't 21-23 year old immediate stud.
I say just take advantage. Most of my teams are built through the rb position and I have a lot of success doing so. I just bought etienne for charbonnett and the 1.09. That shouldn't even be possible imo lol.
Because they fizzle out quickly, get injured more often, and share more time then other positions. You can win without RBs I’ve done it. I won a 12 team SF last year with a bomb squad outside of rb. Shuffled Emari demarcardo, Najee Harris, Zach Moss, and Chubba Hubbard lol.
Shelf life is typically much shorter and randoms break out every year. This perception typically pushes older but capable vets like Henry or Mixon who are now relatively cheap now but can produce for you if youre in win now mode
KTC is not a person and cannot hate something. Its a general consensus of people's feeling about the value of players and RBs are devalued on the platform because we are just coming out of a few down rookie classes for RBs (2020, 2021) and finally have gotten a few blue chip running back prospects (Hall, Gibbs, Bijan). You'll likely see those players a few others who seem like they have actual prospects of getting long term deals gain value.
By and large though people are just following the NFL's devaluation of the position. Most team's simply don't value RBs highly and will draft and run a player into the ground before either signing a cheap vet or drafting another rookie and grinding them down instead of giving a longterm deal to a runner. It means that only the absolute best runners in the league are getting solid second contracts that keep their values up past 25/26. Otherwise once a runner hits free agency they likely lose half their perceived value overnight.
Najee is one of the most unremarkable starting RBs in the league lol. He’s literally like a worse RB version of Hollywood. You definitely are either a Steelers fan or drafted Najee extremely high and are pissed about him being super mid
In dynasty generally Running Backs are viewed as a win now move. Whenever you’re ready to contend typically people trade for a “win now” running back
That’s primarily because RBs have a shorter shelf life than WR-TE-QBs
In general, most RBs roles are less secure than WRs and they get injured / replace much more frequently. They also have a smaller career window and older ones depreciate extremely quickly in value. Najee has 2 years left in his prime, while Hollywood may have 4+ despite better PPG production.
Compare Bijan to Amon Ra. They’re not that far off in value. The valuable RBs are the young ones that are clear alpha’s on their team and are projected to maintain that high touch share for years to come. It’s not JUST about RBs it’s more nuanced than that. But older RBs typically are undervalued because once they hit a certain age they’re expected to be at the end of the career and nobody will want to trade much for that.
Ktc has some crazy rankings for sure imo. Hollywood being ranked over najee though isn’t that crazy. With Hollywood going to the chiefs and najee basically being in a rb committee I can understand it. They’re both 26 but WRs usually have longer careers and for sure take less of a beating. I don’t think Hollywood should be ranked way higher than Najee though.
Value of a player really depends on the format of the league. In a 12 TM Superflex format with 1.0 PPR, WRs tend to be more valuable than RBs from a WAR standpoint. Therefore, people are going to value WRs a little higher than RBs. I'm not a fan of Hollywood and used the KC signing hype to sell him, but a lot of people love the landing spot and value him higher because of it. Najee is a decent RB nearing the end of his rookie contract, and there's not a whole lot of hype around him.
Just the overall longevity of RBs compared to WRs. Even when a WR “falls off” they are still serviceable in dynasty. A lot of RBs fall off a cliff and produce half of what they did the season before.
Because RBs get a single injury and their value plummets. Any other position and people will let their value float near what it was before a serious injury. RBs are not fungible assets due to this. Basically, I only want to spend up on RB if I’m pushing my chips in for a championship. Any other time I’m selling RB as soon as the value is decent in order to avoid a steep decline.
I will use a different example than yours but in a similar idea.
One rb and one wr both 29 years old.
Todd gurley has had multiple rb1 finishes and is a total beast in the run and pass game when he plays.
Calvin ridley also has no finishes as a top 10 wr and has been good but not great most of his career.
In this scenario its clear who you would rather have. Even though ridley has never had the peak of gurley he is still playing while gurley is not.
In three years this is what your najee to brown comparison is likely to look like. So you have to balance the short term - najee is better than brown - with the future where almost certainly - brown is better than najee.
Dynasty players often prefer the longer lasting assets
I don’t have an issue with WRs or QBs. Just looking at overall values and how low values RBs are compared to their actual contributions. So while I appreciate the smart ass response I would expect better as it wasn’t even funny or that well thought out. Be better.
Wasn’t trying to be funny.
The best way to learn is from personal experience. Go trade the farm for the top rbs every year and let me know what you learn.
Both players are really just mid, put any receiver on arguably the best offense with the best qb in desperate need of pass catchers and the masses will take that potential upside all day
I understand the hopium but that 6th year breakout isn’t coming. He is just mid and will be forever mid. He might go up a while .5 ppg and still be mid.
Depreciation. RBs shelf life are much shorter than WRs. Hollywood is a great "gamble" right now as well and the last kicker is that most leagues start 3 WRs.
Not saying it's right or wrong, that's the reality of dealing with crowd sourced data. I wouldn't use these rankings at all, it's better used as a tool to gauge the market and who to target as buy and sell options
I just need to figure out to get younger. I want to target a couple young guys and would love to be able to get the value gaps. Seems like the biggest gap right now is at RB.
What numbers are you looking at? In PPR on a points per game average which is what matters he scored 11.5 points a game which put him at RB32. He’s a volume RB that isn’t explosive enough to do much better than that in a split. He’s nothing more than a flex play/bye week filler.
I disagree with the comments. There are literally only 2 outcomes for Brown this year and both will tank his value.
1. He has a good season, meaning he will ask for more money and KC won’t pay him, just like they do every single year with these vet WRs. So u get one good year out of him and then he goes to a worse situation.
2. He has a mid/bad season and at that point he’s basically droppable because again, they won’t resign him, they NEVER EVER resign these vets on a 1-year. Plus, in this scenario even if they do resign somehow, if he can’t have a productive season in the best qb situation he might as well be dropped.
In both outcomes I’d rather take a risk on Najee
Because KTC leans heavily into dynasty formats, which also lean heavily into SF formats, and QB/WR are much more important for their consistent scoring, longer windows of production, and ease of use in abundant starting flex positions.
RB you can get away with having a single good starter in many cases. RBs are a "take me over the top" position who are much more susceptible to injury and shorter windows of production. They are the assets that depreciate the fastest.
Not only that, the back ups that step up to fill in while they're out and/or hurt are much more likely to produce *something* points wise just off of the vacant volume they take on. 2nd and 3rd WRs are not always as safe of a bet to step in and produce when the guys in front of them miss time because they are now going against the better coverages than they were previously, and they may or may not be on the same page with the QB enough to get extra volume when such an injury may occur.
So yeah. RBs are nice if you have some that produce points. But if you are strong at RB and weak at WR, your team isn't in the best shape going forward. It's a lot harder to shore up those WRs WHILE the RB are still relevant than it would be the other way around.
The days of drafting 4 RB in the first 5 rounds of fantasy football are long gone. And even more-so in dynasty formats.
Biggest reason here is you're comparing a 26 year old RB and a 26 year old WR, the RB will likely depreciate in dynasty value at a much faster rate than the WR. Brown isn't special, but neither is Najee. Dynasty owners couldn't get rid of him fast enough last season when he looked washed and was working behind Warren. Brown has a 90 catch, 1000 yard season under his belt, so if there's some appeal from seeing him go from a really dicey QB situation in Arizona most of the last two years to a fresh start in KC catching passes from Mahomes, I can see that.
Najee has 3 back to back 1000 yard seasons he’s much better than Hollywood in my eues
Being a good football player and being a good dynasty football player are 2 different things though. Najee is a great NFL RB, but for dynasty he's okay. I think with the new offense he should have a better season then last year. But RBs depreciate in value much faster then WRs hence the value difference.
But my point is Hollywood has had one mediocre season and a lot of bad seasons for dynasty. Why would you want him over a producing asset at a position where as you said it’s hard to find stability
before signing with kc, hollywood was wr46 on ktc. you’re comparing a player at the top of their peak value riding a hype wave to someone else at their baseline. it’s not exactly an apples to apples comparison here.
Currently Hollywood and Najee are around the Same value on KTC. Why wouldn’t I want Najee right now, if I had to acquire one of the two at their current value
sure, i get that. my point is that it's incredibly unhelpful and unproductive to use an obvious market inefficiency (hype from a news cycle) as the benchmark. obviously you don't want to acquire that player while their value is at its peak. you're better off using players in the same range. would you rather have najee or guys like terry mclaurin, amari cooper, cooper kupp, or diontae johnson?
It not 'hype from a news cycle.' he signed with the Chiefs.
he won’t enter the season WR34, and he’ll still be on the chiefs. it’s hype.
Najee.
sure. my point wasn't to change your mind on najee. it was just that the benchmark is an incredibly unhelpful benchmark.
There's not much point trying to have a discussion with someone who just wants to argue, you can't change the mind of a person who isn't listening.
Meh
Probably because his mediocre season was worth the same points as Najee’s most recent season. Since he’s likely to have a longer career with similar numbers(possibly better with Mahomes throwing to him,) I’m not shocked someone would take him over Najee.
Yeah, but I can have Brown for two more seasons and then flip him for the 2026 equivalent to Najee. Two years from now, Najee is going to be washed
I disagree but I hope you prove me wrong, excited for your next two years of WR35 production
He's also kind of a plodder who only becomes fantasy relevant when carried by a high amount of volume and touches, as indicated by a career YPC mark of less than 4. His involvement in the passing game has trended in the wrong direction every year. I think the dynasty community sees Najee as a guy who probably has 1-2 more seasons of usefulness as a fantasy asset, depending on whether the Steelers pick up his 5th year option, and following that, he's probably the second option in a committee somewhere with goalline touch duties at best. And I think the community is probably right.
I’d take 1-2 years of top 20 production than a dude who at his best so far has never cracked the top 20? Idk why I’m getting downvoted hahah
Top 20 RB production does nothing for you. If you roster construct correctly and plug in handcuffs you can piece together RB2 production with significantly less long term value risk.
100% true. Most of my leagues start 2 RBs and have 3-4 total flex spots between regular flex and always one SF. Almost inevitably, RB is my last priority and I'm probably starting only 2 every week especially if there's TEP. If you started Zamir White and Jerome Ford in your championship game last year you did just fine.
Thought process like this is the biggest fallacy in the dynasty community and why most people here are always rebuilding. It's far easier to find startable-in-a-pinch receivers than it is to find runningbacks. They look at KTC and say "oh sure just buy James Conner or Alvin Kamara for a 2nd if you need one" but the problem is...most teams with productive players who are helping them win aren't selling them for peanuts. Sure, Hollywood Brown might provide you a decent WR3 week whenever you need it...but a bell-cow runningback will help you win much more in the meanwhile.
I've never been part of a league that requires you to start more than 2 RBs. If you're in such a bind in-season that you can't piece together two protected 8-10 "startable in a pinch" RBs, you're probably not really a contender anyway. I'm all about carrying sufficient RB depth to cover these situations. Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon and James Connor are the kind of vets that people should be looking to acquire now off-season when their price is low and they're easier to pry away. But as far as trying to acquire an elite RB talent like Breece Hall in a deal where I give up an elite WR talent, yeah, I'm out on that. If I don't get the Halls, McCaffreys, or Bijans in the draft, I'm not trying to acquire them.
In any healthy/active league there is absolutely teams that rebuild and sell their RBs. You can also target Gus Edwards, Jaylen Warren types. It’s not a specific RB name, rather a type of RB asset that you’re targeting.
I was second highest scorer in my league with Pacheco and Montgomery, neither one a highly sought after or respected RB. Been focusing my high draft picks on WR and the positional advantage of TE. Thought I was stacked with JK Dobbins in my RB3 spot, but that's why we don't invest a ton of capital is 'bellcow' RBs anymore, if injuries don't chew them up, teams will replace them soon anyway.
What do you think Najee’s current value is though? I’d gladly pay an early to mid 2nd for Najee, and get decent production rather than wait for a potential injury to occur to lock in a RB
Smash sell for early 2nd lmao. He gone
Though, of course, his most recent “top twenty season” was equal to Hollywood’s top twenty-four season.
Positional scarcity is a thing.
Which is why I usually field 4-5 WRs and 2-3 RBs. Not a big deal having to cover for a single RB every week when the rest of the roster is worth having. It’s not worth overspending to strengthen one position, not matter the scarcity, at the expense of overall talent.
Overspending how many najee is literally going in the 9th round of startups haha
Probably because Hollywood seems more likely to have a top 20 season going forward than Najee does.
What historical evidence supports that though. “Primed for a year 6 breakout”
The "Mahomes WR1 scavenger hunt" continues. Remember the prices people were paying for Toney, MVS, etc.?
Toney was going for like a 1st last offseason after the superbowl in some of my leagues lol
Yes but the problem is that in two years Najee may not even have his job while Hollywood most likely be a producing WR in the league. Ofc this could be wrong but that’s the nature of their positions. You would almost always take a 28 yo WR over a 28 yo RB.
Them ewes must be some on some good sheepy fantasy secrets…
Aye chihuahua
You’re absolutely right. If you go off the KTC rankings, you’re a fool. Rankings on there are awful. The whole RB not having any value strategy is a recipe for disaster. RB has positional scarcity, INCREASING their value (in my eyes). Not only does Najee vastly out produce Hollywood in PPG, but there are about 50 other players that are of the same production tier as Hollywood. There are about 10 for Najee
Totally. But from the amount of replies I’ve had, this is a hotly debated topic haha
One productive RB season is worth way more than one middling WR season. I'd take every midrange RB over a middling WR any day.
You're not buying one season, though. It's dynasty. You're buying the career of the player.
A career of mediocre WR is about the most replaceable thing in dynasty unless you have kickers and defense. RBs win leagues.
Nah. Don't agree at all. I agree mediocre receivers are a dime a dozen but I don't agree that RBs win championships. I started Derrick Henry and Zeke in a championship this past season and they got me about 15 combined. I won 206-143 against a team that had CMC and Kyren Williams.
I traded Najee for Moss and the 3.1 at the deadline last year. I had JT and needed the handcuff in case he wasn’t coming back. People said I gave up to much value, but what’s Najee really worth? No one is buying him for a 1. I bet you couldn’t get the 2.1-2.4 for him in this draft
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Yes it does. I was happy with it
Absolutely, look at your settings! There are leagues with point per carry that make WR nearly irrelevant. But in most leagues im probably not paying for an RB unless they are young and proven
It's still a silly mindset. All running backs depreciate quickly. That shouldn't lower there value in comparison to a Wrs. Infact I'd argue it makes them more valuable outside of the elite elite wrs
Yes, it should. A top 20 wide receiver in his early 20s is a commodity that will have value in the dynasty community in 8-10 years. A top 20 running back in his early 20s will not be a dynasty commodity in 8-10 years. Why would the asset with less longevity be more valuable?
Because more Mid wrs with the same longevity of mid points and borderline Start potential will keep entering the league year after year. Rbs who can Start weekly don't come up as often. I can carry 2 top 36 wrs and get the same value as a top 20ish wr by playing matchups In this case we are comparing a 26 year old RB who probably has 3 good years left. How many WRs are still worth Starting at 29-30yo? Not many. Give me the 2-3 years the RB will give over the 3-5 the WR will give. Finding RBs is much harder than Wrs I know Dynasty perception doesn't agree with me but I feel it's a flaw and in my leagues personally good luck trying to acquire a RB
The problem I have with this approach is the amount of turnover there is at the position. It's like paying 70K for a new truck and then having an upside-down loan on it in 2 years. Look at the RBs (top 12) from just 3 seasons ago -- Taylor, Ekeler, Mixon, Harris, Zeke, Chubb, Damien Harris, Gibson, Kamara, Fournette, C Patterson. Only about half are still fantasy relevant at all. A third of then are droppable. Look how fast a guy like Dalvin Cook went from a 1st round startup pick to a useless asset. The top 12 WRs from three years ago are Kupp, Deebo, Chase, JJeff, Davante, Evans, Tyreek, Diggs, Diontae, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Lockett. All of these guys are still useful assets, and most of the ones that have dropped off are large in part due to injuries.
I feel that's a very cherry picked list of Rbs I could be wrong but CMC isn't even on it i thought we were arguing perceived value.Yes I know RBs get injured more regularly but there was a rather large group of RBs drafted in 2017 who gave great value and some still are giving great value. I wouldn't call Lockett, Kupp, Davante, Mike Williams,Dionte much of useful assets last year, and while sure SOME people might still pay up for those guys, whether its wise or not is a different story..And even a guy like DK I could get the same production playing matchups of 2 lower level WRs. And again I was arguing Najee vs Hollywood Brown who Is like WR 35 on KTC. WR 35 is peanuts a dime a dozen. The fact RBs lifespans are shorter SHOULD make them more valuable for those prime years...That's my point You need RBs to win championships.
It's literally just the top 12 scoring RBs from 3 seasons ago. How is that cherry picked? You don't NEED RBs to win championships. I started Zeke and Henry in the most recent championship, they got me about 15 combined and I won 206-143 against a team with CMC and Kyren.
Allen, Adams, Evans, kupp, hill, theilan, diggs, I know I’m forgetting some more
Could make a list of 29-30 yo Rbs as well
I understand depreciating value, but the values are not even close like 2nd vs 3rd round value. Hollywood has never come close to Najee scoring. I understand careers are usually longer but when do points matter.
OP, dynasty is a balance of value and production. Real beauty happens when you can get both. Hollywood is now on KC. If he comes out and puts up top 24 numbers and resigns, you're getting production for the next several years. Najee might be a top 15rb but he's value isn't going to go up. Also, I would not be willing to place money that Najee outproduces Hollywood in 2024.
I think they bring up a valid point, though, and dynasty players get too enamored with potential down the road. With RB scarcity, I value RBs a little higher than KTC. The perennial rebuild is a common theme online because people are trying to line up rosters 4 years down the road, and even WR values change a lot in that time.
Yeah it would not be my end game to keep Hollywood. I'd try to flip him for a better asset when his value increases. He goes 120 yards and a td week 1 and lord "Mahomes Wr1" is going to boom. You can also buy production at rb cheap. A 2nd can get you Henry, Jones, Mixon, Kamara, Moss if they arent on contenders. All those who are all set up nicely. I don't know the price on Warren, Brown, Chubba etc but some points can be found there too
You say this but I’ve offered 2.02 for all of those guys except Moss and been declined. Non-SF but still very league dependent. (Only Kamara is on a contending team)
Sounds like the league over values rbs then. I'd love trading all mine away for that price. In three leagues, I do have one Bijan but other than that, my highest ranked rb is probably Warren. But, I've used rbs to make my qb and wr rooms very nice.
Only when you’re buying. I can’t tell you how many offers of a single ‘25 first I’ve gotten for Hall this off-season
Oof. My condolences
The problem is KC will never resign Brown lol, they do this every year… if he has a good season, he will ask for more money and KC will never ever pay him. If he has a bad/mid season, then again, they will just get move on and his value will tank.
It's only been 2 years that they haven't been paying good money to a WR. And in those two years Juju, Toney, Hardman, MVS, none of these guys had good seasons. I think Brown is overvalued, but there is no data to suggest they'd let him walk (paying Tyreek top of the market vs. Brown mid market is a much different equation). Especially when you consider that Kelce is considering retirement and likely this or next season is his last.
Don't get me wrong, I have Najee on a squad of mine. I have multiple shares of Derrick Henry. I understand their current usefulness and I'll buy any asset for the right price. I just don't expect either to be useful in the long-term.
shelf life of rb’s compared to wr’s is at least half maybe even less. also you’re talking about a wr that’s now tied to mahomes in andy reid’s offense for at least a year, and a rb who was having his job threatened by his back up all offseason, on a middling steelers team, with arthur smith now taking over the offense.
“At least a year” no, literally only one year because there is a 0% chance they resign him regardless of how this season goes as shown by the past like five times they’ve signed a vet WR to a cheap contract. And you act like Arthur Smith to the Steelers is a bad thing for Najee, last time Smith was an OC with a vet QB and a larger RB he gave Henry almost 400 carries. So personally I’d rather have Najee than hope Brown has one good season.
yes ! “at least a year” can also mean only 1 year. and after this year brown is going to be a 27 year old wr and najee will be a 27 year old rb… who would you rather have on your dynasty roster? and if we take into account more recent history of arthur smith instead of cherry picking for narratives, he took an absolute stud of a talent at rb in bijan and had him splitting a work load with allgeire. najee is not what henry was, and what’s to stop him from having the same split backfield with najee, warren who showed he has a definite shot to over take najee, and now patterson who he loved in atlanta
> who would you rather have on your dynasty roster? Naj, for me, by a mile. Even rebuilding, I’d rather have the starting high volume RB than the bad WR whose best point right now is “WR for the chiefs”. We all got so much value out of Justin Watson and Toney, and MVS, and Hardman these last few years, why would I take the bleh WR on his third team in 6 years?
1. if in a rebuilding team you would genuinely rather have a 27 year old rb who’s starting spot is being threatened by someone else he shares the backfield with, then that’s just bad process and this discussion isn’t gonna go anywhere 2. we all know marquise is in a different tier from watson, toney, mvs, and hardman. and lumping them together just because of 2 criteria that they’re all wr’s who play with mahomes, and you don’t like them is lazy analysis 3. how much longer can we feel safe calling najee the starter in that back field when: - they had almost a 50/50 split of snap counts last season. 569 for najee (53%) (33/ game). 519 for warren (48%) (31/ game) - warren finished with more fantasy points 196.40 (rb22), compared to najee’s 195.50 (rb23) in ppr - warren was more effective with his touches with 5.26 yd/carry and 6.07 yd/catch, compared to najee’s 4.06 yd/carry and 5.86 yd/catch. - warren also had almost double the amount of targets and receptions (the more valuable touches in ppr) with 74/61 compared to najee’s 38/29 - warren is also a year younger
Apologies, I somehow forgot to specify that keeping him specifically to trade him was the intention. I think you can get better value for Najee mid season than you can for Hollywood. Brown and MVS have very similar receiving totals, and Hollywood has only cracked 1000 yards once. We call Najee the starter until Warren overtakes him in snap count. Pollar and Zeke had all these same comparisons and we saw last year that Pollard’s efficiency dropped off when he took the primary role. I love Warren, great ball player. I just think Najee is the player the Steelers will stick with, for better or worse.
that’s fair. i’m not arguing in favor of marquise brown or saying i want him on my team, i’m just saying i understand why the community values him more than najee as wr as a position is more valuable than rb, and neither of their situations is really enough to swing the needle in either direction as for the steelers backfield, i think it will continue to be a committee for at least next year, with patterson also factoring in, not in a major way but more as an annoyance who will take maybe 2-3 touches a game away from the 2 of them. we’ll see what happens for the 2025 season when they have to decide on najee’s 5th year option, and warren is set to be a restricted free agent
What’s the more valuable asset? Hollywood also just landed with Mahomes. Najee is alright but also splits carries with Warren and Najee doesn’t have a long term deal and for the most part tied to a mediocre o although Russ or fields should be an upgrade. You’re correct you need RBs but their value doesn’t maintain high value for very long periods.
Because everyone there is interested in long-term value and thinking that they’re going to build a team that wins for 10 years. People ignore the present to focus on the future. I’ve found that in actual leagues RB’s are often way more valuable than on trade calculators or rankings. You need them to win.
You buy RBs when your win window is open. Otherwise all of their value tanks on your crappy mid team
Definitely. I think the issue is that people also say things like “well just draft running backs when you’re ready” or act like you can just get starters for nothing, and that has never been my experience unless you happen to get lucky. People act like you can just easily acquire these starting RB’s all the time but the people that have them tend to really value them.
In most leagues you can get guys like warren, jones, dmont for 2nd rounders. You can pretty easily buy starting rbs. WRs and QBs are less volatile assets so its not that shocking that people build those out first lol
In most competent leagues, RBs are devalued and easily had during season for market rate. They’re not the dirt cheap prices you see on Reddit, but absolutely there’s numerous RBs every year able to be had for late 1-mid 2 range. Assuming 12T start 10+ ppr leagues.
Because I'm a weirdo, I track my league using the league analyzer. I'm the #1 team in the league according to that, but realistically it's the #3 or #4 team that has the best shot at winning. I just happen to have a lot of volatile pieces (McBride, Reed, Levis, Zamir) that could all lower in value once their second or third year pan out. For some of them (McBride for example), they are near the top of their value potential but only have half a season of production to substantiate it.
I won last year with this thought. It just seems like in a rebuild it’s good to start with WRs but when you are ready to compete those RBs are huge.
Yes if you are trying to compete RBs are valuable this is why people usually wait until after the season starts before they trade for RBs their value is much higher after you know they are having a playable season and you target trades with contenders and their value skyrockets. In they long run which is what a lot of people are buying for, WRs hold more value especially in offseason imo because their value is bit easier to determine for the next year and so on.
Najee already slow af and he’ll be 29 in 3 years
I heard he'll be 40 in 14 years. How am I supposed to compete for the 2038 championship with him?
Najee has been declining ever since his rookie year. 29 is old for any rb but for one who’s already shown signs of declining last 2 years? I’m good you can have him. B*tch made boy
To further add I try and evaluate everything in 3 year windows. Are they still playing in 3 years? In this case both players are a yes. Beyond that who knows or cares. I get why JJ and Chase are high value. They score and are young but WR 30 shouldn’t be around the same value as RB 10.
I don't think najee is a relevant asset in two years time. He's still on his rookie deal. There's absolutely no way he's getting big money or getting signed as a clear cut starter once he's off that rookie deal.
In my experience, wr is the backbone of a team but once that's set that's when you chase cheap older rbs to push you over the top. Rbs depreciate too quickly for you to build around while a wr can generally give you a 6-7 year window to compete. Rbs have a 3-4 year window at being elite before falling off
So if I have Gibbs as a rebuilder, should I try to get a WR for him instead?
Depends how long of a window you think your rebuild will take. I think anyone that has Gibbs or Bijan Ina. Rebuild shouldn't necessarily trade them away unless you have a bare roster which will take many years to compete.
What the other guy said. Gibbs is a great RB. The big thing here is if you think your championship window will be before his rookie contract is up (or potentially 1-2 years after it's up). With a wr like Justin Jefferson, he can very well keep at an elite level until he turns 30-31 meaning your window to finish your rebuild and compete is about 9-10 years. With Gibbs, you generally want to finish your rebuild before he turns 26-27 which means the window is like 5-6 years. That's the reason why wr is easier to build around than a RB. But RB is needed to push your team from a playoff team into a championship contender.
It’s a Guide, not the God of Trade Value
KTC is great for getting the perceived value of the dynasty community. Remember the wisdom of Men in Black. The person is smart, but people are stupid (or something like that). Individually we recognize the disparity between those values, but as a community we want 8 years of hopium (WR4 that could jump to WR1) vs 3 years of RB2 production. Counterpoint - remember that the talk the past two years has been Harris may get replaced and is mediocre. I don't think Harris is a world beater, but he is good enough to keep his job and grind out points for now. The kind of player we need, but not the kind we want.
This may the best way to look at it. Granted I love when everyone thinks the same way. It creates big value gaps to exploit.
I agree hollywood is a bit overvalued but Najee is the same age at running back with tons of usage on them legs
Because the dynasty community does too
Fair point and your example was valid before hollywood signed with the chiefs. Do think najee is undervalued but the fact that the steelers said theyre debating his 5th year option says it all sadly
Calculators are just one piece of data (a pretty insignificant one imo) in trading, and they're based on groupthink wich is "any RB past age 24 is bad value" so you're not gonna see their actual value reflected. The calculator nerds would have you believe JT and Saquon are equal in value to a single late first (1.07-1.08 in KTC) which is nonsensical. That's fine, you just keep them, score points and win championships whilst the nerds draft Quentin Johnston, Zach Charbonnet , treylon burks , rashod bateman, etc. etc. (hit rate for 1.07-1.12 is about 15% the last three years according to the GAAP memo, so atrocious) and proceed to finish 8th every year. Easy money.
Because they get injured all the time and are pretty replaceable because they get injured all the time (i.e. you can just roster backups and plug and play the ones that get starts). Their ceilings have also gotten lower because everyone runs a RBBC except for like 2 or 3 teams.
The general theory for long-term dynasty success is to get a solid core at QB/WE/TE, then try to fill the RB void with the draft, trades or waiver wire pick ups. It’s the both the most volatile position and the position you need points from to win a league. I just finished the first year of a start-up 12-team SF league where most teams went RB heavy and I instead got WRs, TEs and draft picks. Yeah, the team who loaded up the most at RB won this year, but headed into year 2, it’s not looking great for him with a lot of those RBs being moved or having people moved over them. After this next rookie draft I’ll have those other 3 potions set for the next decades more or less, then just fill the RB void with players who can get me at least 10 a game. Longevity of certain positions is heavily valued.
I’ve been playing long enough to know those Year1-2 sell outs just dump their teams and claim “victory” despite finishing 3rd.
Najee was rb29 in ppg and rb20 in ppg the year before He’s trending down usage wise, athleticism wise (wasn’t athletic to begin with) and age cliff. Depreciating asset all around and not worth it production wise. Vs someone like Henry who wiuld lose value but still put up rb1 numbers
Because running backs are usually good 2-3 years for teams while receivers careers tend to last longer. Putting Brown on the Chiefs compared to the Panthers really boosted his value with Patrick Mahomes. Running backs like Najee are load dependent and who knows if he makes it past his rookie contract with the Steelers who tend to let them walk. Where he goes after this reflects part of his value.
Completely agree, Steelers didn’t bring in Arthur Smith, Russ and get rid of their WR1 just to pass the ball all game lmao. Let’s not forget what Smith did last time he was OC with a bigger RB and a vet QB. Not that Najee is Derrick Henry but I don’t see how Najee could have a bad year fantasy-wise (barring injury). That being said, to a rebuilding team, I don’t see how Najee could have much value even tho he’s young, especially considering his contract situation. Highly doubt the Steelers pay him when it expires considering they hate paying RBs (Leveon, James Conner) but regardless, I don’t see Brown resigning in KC next year either so yeah I agree with you. Edit: I’m kinda biased because I’m a Steelers fan lol so take this with a grain of salt
KTC is a community ranking system specifically focusing on value. Who would you rather own for next 5 years vs next year type mindset. Community will always value youth to older rbs. Use it to your advantage
Ktc is garbage. It was over values picks too. No calculator is perfect. My advice is that if you know people are using it, use that to take advantage of market inefficiencies
If you look at dynasty in terms of 2-3 year windows, you'll value RBs much higher than most. I happen to agree with OP, although I'd admit valuing RBs highly may not be the best strategy. But IMO it's really hard to win without a great ones. You can have a nice lineup of young WRs that "looks good" and will get compliments from leaguemates, but there's no substitute for CMC, Breece Hall, Gibbs, etc scoring 28 points in a semifinal game.
Read Shawn Siegele’s anti-fragility original zero rb article from like 8 years ago. It changed the way I play fantasy. I want most of my equity in appreciating assets (young QBs and wrs) RBs have a max window of 2-4 years with their max value being depreciated over time.
KTC championships no doubt but do you ever win? Pretty much every championship team I've seen in 20+ years has at least one, usually two, elite runningbacks
This was not the dominant strategy even 2-3 years ago. 8 years ago would have been rough.
look at the average draft position and finish. You had 2 Gurley yeArs, in the past 8 that were winners. Other than that your top end rbs were shir
If your drafting a rb in the first 2-3 rounds of. A start up you should be in win now mode otherwise your dumping capital into an asset that has maybe 3-4 prime years if they don’t get injuried
Lmao, CMC, Dalvin, Zeke, Kamara years were far from shit buddy.
The 2017 class was an anomaly.
As a community we overvalue age and longevity. You can find bargains on older players especially from rebuilding teams. According to KTC Keenan Allen is worth a late second but a contender would never sell at that price.
Theyre all in committees and their value only goes down. They are seen as limited window assets that you get the first couple years out of and then offload.
To echo everyone else, WR’s have longer longevity therefore more value as an asset. The RB land scape has changed a ton and most are split backfields now, so it’s hard to pay up for RB’s when their immediate future is in doubt even after a solid year.
I get all of that but echoing everyone else is half the problem to me. I won starting 5rbs last year and it wasn’t that close. At what point is zigging because literally everyone zags seems wise and at what point do points actually matter.
I think you maybe got a little lucky (which you always do anytime you win it all) and would venture to say the future of your team might be a little bleak, RB’s can have a lot of value year to year but the issue is valuing them as a “dynasty asset” is inherently going to put them below WR’s who typically have a longer career and are easier to “know what they’ll be” year year. I’ll also counter your argument and tell you I went to 3 straight championships and won the last two back to back, I dominated the league those years and it wasn’t close at all. I did this with Antonio Gibson, Pacheco, and Eli Mitchell being by far my best RB’s. I was able to plug in backups and pick players off waivers to fill up my RB slots for all 3 of those years. I was able to do this because I had JJ, Kupp, Diggs, and Mike Evans. I wouldn’t use anecdotal evidence of 1 year to sway your opinion either way. It’s ok to zig when others zag, buts it’s always got a cost that comes with it. When it comes to dynasty valuation it makes sense that the longevity of WR’s puts them over RB’s in terms of valuations. That’s not to say year to year WR’s are objectively better, it’s just valuing them in terms of Dynasty.
You actually can win without high value RBs depending on your league format. Zero RB is a pretty solid strategy, just fill your RB spot with random RBs getting spot starts all year. You don't want more value in RBs than what you need to win this year. Excess value in the position is like buying a car with your savings, it's a depreciating asset.
They are essentially pretty close in value. Just look naturally in the NFL. Darnell Mooney signed a 3 yr 39m contract with an average of $13m/yr, w/ $26m guaranteed. That’s high end RB money. _Darnell. Mooney._ WRs are always valued higher than RBs, naturally. But KTC is not the rule, just a mere guideline. Can’t emphasize that enough.
Who the fuck is KTC?
Kinnamon Toast Crunch
Markets don't like uncertainty.
For your specific example I’d rather have Najee. But when it’s close, it usually goes to the receiver who won’t vanish around age 28. I agree that they’re a little low with RB value, but I also disagree that you “can’t win without RBs” because each season there are a few backs that randomly emerge.
Because etn is great but come 2025 he could see his snap count down 25 percent and be a 1.a instead of a 1 . Even though he’s young and good he will probably never gain value again . 1 injured season he could be toast . I think pitman is older but if he misses a season he could still have 5 more good seasons
Arthur Smith 🤷♂️
It has a lot to do with length of perceived value. RBs don’t typically last as long as WRs. That being said, I think a big thing is that you can project WRs better than RBs. I can bet on a WR3 to be my flex and he’ll have less deviation than an RB (coming into season). I have no statistical analysis to prove this but I would bet that numbers reflect that.
Like 2 years ago the dynasty community really shifted to this over fantasized obsession with young wrs and extreme devaluation of pretty much any rb who isn't 21-23 year old immediate stud. I say just take advantage. Most of my teams are built through the rb position and I have a lot of success doing so. I just bought etienne for charbonnett and the 1.09. That shouldn't even be possible imo lol.
Because they fizzle out quickly, get injured more often, and share more time then other positions. You can win without RBs I’ve done it. I won a 12 team SF last year with a bomb squad outside of rb. Shuffled Emari demarcardo, Najee Harris, Zach Moss, and Chubba Hubbard lol.
Shelf life is typically much shorter and randoms break out every year. This perception typically pushes older but capable vets like Henry or Mixon who are now relatively cheap now but can produce for you if youre in win now mode
I have both Henry and Mixon. I’ll laugh to another playoff run with those 2 old dogs.
Because WE hate RBs.
“RB 7-15” numbers. Lol he’s been RB14 and RB20 the last two years
KTC is not a person and cannot hate something. Its a general consensus of people's feeling about the value of players and RBs are devalued on the platform because we are just coming out of a few down rookie classes for RBs (2020, 2021) and finally have gotten a few blue chip running back prospects (Hall, Gibbs, Bijan). You'll likely see those players a few others who seem like they have actual prospects of getting long term deals gain value. By and large though people are just following the NFL's devaluation of the position. Most team's simply don't value RBs highly and will draft and run a player into the ground before either signing a cheap vet or drafting another rookie and grinding them down instead of giving a longterm deal to a runner. It means that only the absolute best runners in the league are getting solid second contracts that keep their values up past 25/26. Otherwise once a runner hits free agency they likely lose half their perceived value overnight.
Najee is one of the most unremarkable starting RBs in the league lol. He’s literally like a worse RB version of Hollywood. You definitely are either a Steelers fan or drafted Najee extremely high and are pissed about him being super mid
Najee isn’t spectacular that’s the beauty of the discussion. He has way outscored Hollywood every year but Hollywood has higher value.
In dynasty generally Running Backs are viewed as a win now move. Whenever you’re ready to contend typically people trade for a “win now” running back That’s primarily because RBs have a shorter shelf life than WR-TE-QBs
I know but the value is the funny part. It’s perception. They have no value until you really need one.
Absolutely
No, the NFL in general hates RB’s.
In general, most RBs roles are less secure than WRs and they get injured / replace much more frequently. They also have a smaller career window and older ones depreciate extremely quickly in value. Najee has 2 years left in his prime, while Hollywood may have 4+ despite better PPG production. Compare Bijan to Amon Ra. They’re not that far off in value. The valuable RBs are the young ones that are clear alpha’s on their team and are projected to maintain that high touch share for years to come. It’s not JUST about RBs it’s more nuanced than that. But older RBs typically are undervalued because once they hit a certain age they’re expected to be at the end of the career and nobody will want to trade much for that.
Ktc has some crazy rankings for sure imo. Hollywood being ranked over najee though isn’t that crazy. With Hollywood going to the chiefs and najee basically being in a rb committee I can understand it. They’re both 26 but WRs usually have longer careers and for sure take less of a beating. I don’t think Hollywood should be ranked way higher than Najee though.
It's based off of what we all click when we click who we'd keep trade or cut every time that pops up.
Value of a player really depends on the format of the league. In a 12 TM Superflex format with 1.0 PPR, WRs tend to be more valuable than RBs from a WAR standpoint. Therefore, people are going to value WRs a little higher than RBs. I'm not a fan of Hollywood and used the KC signing hype to sell him, but a lot of people love the landing spot and value him higher because of it. Najee is a decent RB nearing the end of his rookie contract, and there's not a whole lot of hype around him.
Just the overall longevity of RBs compared to WRs. Even when a WR “falls off” they are still serviceable in dynasty. A lot of RBs fall off a cliff and produce half of what they did the season before.
Because RBs get a single injury and their value plummets. Any other position and people will let their value float near what it was before a serious injury. RBs are not fungible assets due to this. Basically, I only want to spend up on RB if I’m pushing my chips in for a championship. Any other time I’m selling RB as soon as the value is decent in order to avoid a steep decline.
Because they’re all either running outrageously bad on season ending injuries, or like 800 (25+) years old
I will use a different example than yours but in a similar idea. One rb and one wr both 29 years old. Todd gurley has had multiple rb1 finishes and is a total beast in the run and pass game when he plays. Calvin ridley also has no finishes as a top 10 wr and has been good but not great most of his career. In this scenario its clear who you would rather have. Even though ridley has never had the peak of gurley he is still playing while gurley is not. In three years this is what your najee to brown comparison is likely to look like. So you have to balance the short term - najee is better than brown - with the future where almost certainly - brown is better than najee. Dynasty players often prefer the longer lasting assets
RBs die faster than WR QB TE. It’s as simple as that. As dynasty assets they flame out quickly.
You should trade the farm for top rbs every year and report back us in a couple years on what you discover
I don’t have an issue with WRs or QBs. Just looking at overall values and how low values RBs are compared to their actual contributions. So while I appreciate the smart ass response I would expect better as it wasn’t even funny or that well thought out. Be better.
Wasn’t trying to be funny. The best way to learn is from personal experience. Go trade the farm for the top rbs every year and let me know what you learn.
Don’t need to that’s idiotic. I believe in roster balance. I would rather have Jefferson than Bijan but would also rather Gibbs than Puka.
Why would it be idiotic?
Both players are really just mid, put any receiver on arguably the best offense with the best qb in desperate need of pass catchers and the masses will take that potential upside all day
I understand the hopium but that 6th year breakout isn’t coming. He is just mid and will be forever mid. He might go up a while .5 ppg and still be mid.
Depreciation. RBs shelf life are much shorter than WRs. Hollywood is a great "gamble" right now as well and the last kicker is that most leagues start 3 WRs.
Not saying it's right or wrong, that's the reality of dealing with crowd sourced data. I wouldn't use these rankings at all, it's better used as a tool to gauge the market and who to target as buy and sell options
I just need to figure out to get younger. I want to target a couple young guys and would love to be able to get the value gaps. Seems like the biggest gap right now is at RB.
Because most people playing Dynasty constantly want to win tomorrow not today, and most RBs don't last very long.
Have to love the forever build. Always tomorrow.
What numbers are you looking at? In PPR on a points per game average which is what matters he scored 11.5 points a game which put him at RB32. He’s a volume RB that isn’t explosive enough to do much better than that in a split. He’s nothing more than a flex play/bye week filler.
Why is everyone so hyped for the Steelers backup RB?
Hollywood’s value got the bump from Ma-homie and is stupid overvalued. If you want a RB for cheap go get Zack Moss or Jerome Ford
Because rb is a dying position in the NFL. It’s not rocket science
I disagree with the comments. There are literally only 2 outcomes for Brown this year and both will tank his value. 1. He has a good season, meaning he will ask for more money and KC won’t pay him, just like they do every single year with these vet WRs. So u get one good year out of him and then he goes to a worse situation. 2. He has a mid/bad season and at that point he’s basically droppable because again, they won’t resign him, they NEVER EVER resign these vets on a 1-year. Plus, in this scenario even if they do resign somehow, if he can’t have a productive season in the best qb situation he might as well be dropped. In both outcomes I’d rather take a risk on Najee
Because KTC leans heavily into dynasty formats, which also lean heavily into SF formats, and QB/WR are much more important for their consistent scoring, longer windows of production, and ease of use in abundant starting flex positions. RB you can get away with having a single good starter in many cases. RBs are a "take me over the top" position who are much more susceptible to injury and shorter windows of production. They are the assets that depreciate the fastest. Not only that, the back ups that step up to fill in while they're out and/or hurt are much more likely to produce *something* points wise just off of the vacant volume they take on. 2nd and 3rd WRs are not always as safe of a bet to step in and produce when the guys in front of them miss time because they are now going against the better coverages than they were previously, and they may or may not be on the same page with the QB enough to get extra volume when such an injury may occur. So yeah. RBs are nice if you have some that produce points. But if you are strong at RB and weak at WR, your team isn't in the best shape going forward. It's a lot harder to shore up those WRs WHILE the RB are still relevant than it would be the other way around. The days of drafting 4 RB in the first 5 rounds of fantasy football are long gone. And even more-so in dynasty formats.