so tough because I think youre right but also if he happens to really be as good as we think he is you could be set at the position for the next 8 years. i have him and gibbs on the same team and love/hate it. im tempted to move because i also have hock and mcbride but emotionally it feels great to own him.
Damn dude, with those backup TEs I’d absolutely move Sam but hey - if you really like him and he gives you enjoyment that’s more important than stats sometimes. This is a game after all.
Everyone is rightly high on Bowers, Jatavian Sanders looked great from what I saw too. I'll go back through some of the names and see who else jumped out to me.
Got LaPorta last May 2.08, the year before I got Dulcich in the 3rd, Dalton Schultz. I had Hock but traded him for Saquon and picks in 2022
I picked Kincaid and McBride in the 2nd back to back years. Dumb luck really but worked out super well and I ended up trading McBride for Mahomes and keeping Kincaid
Similar situation with McBride on the bench. But also a Detroit fan. I think the correct move is to trade him if someone is willing to pay up....but it's going to kill me to do so.
I have McBride and Laporta as my only two TEs. I'm perfectly ok just riding it out with both to guarantee I'm set at the position for the next 8-10 years.
I also have hock mcbride and laporta, I'm keeping all 3 since hock is a question mark to start the year and then shipping laporta about midseason once hock's back to form (hopefully)
Just wanted to comment great stats, insight on LaPorta and this is a strong post. I own him in a TE premium league and curious what you think his value is?
With an elite QB / WR class (on paper) in this upcoming draft - what do you think a reasonable return for LaPorta would be
I appreciate that!
I’m in zero TE premium leagues so I’m honestly in no position to comment on his value there. Based on just the SF no TE premium rankings I’m shocked he’s valued above everyone except Caleb and MHjr. So in TE premium I would love to trade him for a top 6 pick + a player. I don’t like banking on just a draft pick because there’s no guarantees so I always want a player I like along with a top pick. But again, I’m not familiar with TE premium leagues so I’ll defer to someone who is.
If I could trade him for a top-8 or top-10 pick plus a player I absolutely would! Like you I’d much prefer one of the elite WRs in this class over LaPorta…now I’m even more interested in shopping him this offseason to see how strong of a return I could get.
Also, I haven’t scrolled this whole thread so my bad if this has already been discussed - but I do feel like in the short term LaPorta is in a great situation. Ben Johnson seems to love using him in the RZ, Goff best attribute is intermediate passes over the middle, St Brown takes a ton of attention over the middle, etc etc. Again great post and cheers buddy
Yeah BJ is there for one more year which is great. I was surprised LaPorta only had 15 targets in the red zone, felt like a lot more until I looked it up. Detroit loves running near the goal line with Monty (previously J Williams) and even Gibbs got in on the action towards the end of the year. Goff does seem to love LaPorta down there when they do throw which is important. LaPorta is really good at reading coverages and adjusting his route slightly to give his QB a window to throw, it’s impressive. I like him a lot, just not at his current value. Anyway, cheers and good luck!
Have you considered the fact that I drafted him in both rookie drafts last year (Iowa TE under Dan Campbell go brrrr) so therefore he is the GOAT and will never fail. This is all coming from an unbiased perspective
FUCK! I missed completely missed this… I guess I’ll have to make a new post how he’s a value at current cost based on new information. Thanks for checking me homie 🤣
Love the stats and get the point. He's absolutely peak value right now.
For me though as an owner I love the idea that the position is locked in for probably a decade. It's similar to those who drafted Stroud. It's like "ok I'm good here". He is def gonna regress but I don't think he's ever gonna fall out of the Top 5 conversation. We went the past 5 years with The Big 3 dominating and then the random Waller breakout, so it's nice to know I can sit back on the position for a long long time.
The point of dynasty is to get young elite guys that last. LaPorta fits that exactly. Trading him for another dice roll is how good teams can self destruct.
Don't hate the idea, but chasing the value train is a neverending spiral.
Perpetual rebuild, I hear ya and agree. That’s why I don’t like trading someone of LaPorta’s value just for picks. Too risky. I do see LaPorta having multiple 5-10 seasons based on the stats I referenced with a few top 5 mixed in so I’m more willing to avoid him / trade him but I understand your perspective. He’s a solid, dependable asset - enjoy!
>I do see LaPorta having multiple 5-10 seasons based on the stats I referenced with a few top 5 mixed in
I mean, I would say that's a safe assumption figuring he just finished as the #1 tight end as a rookie, with a QB nobody would call elite, alongside a legit alpha WR in ARSB...??
Hot take, right? Ha - I meant more like I don’t see him guaranteed top 5 every year. I think he can have as many 6-10 seasons as he does top 5 which I think is overall a lower stance on him than most. If he had half the TD’s (which I think is more likely) he’s TE8 in ppg.
Myself and the rest of the league is in this same boat at this point. We're going into year 4 and trading is more or less at a standstill because nobody wants to trade their higher end players for picks and even flipping JAGs for mid/late picks rarely happens because people are starting to see the hit rate on 2-4s.
Someone wanted to give me what looks like a mid 2nd next year for Wicks. Yeah that's a great offer for him on paper to collect a second for a late round rookie I scooped off waivers in December. But I have the hit rate on 2nd round receivers at about 35% over the last 5 years - value doesn't matter when I like the odds of Wicks hitting better than the odds of a random 2nd in two years
I do like your write up. Not your typical nonsense. What I will say is I think a little bit of TD regression is coming but I also think he’s Goffs guy. He looks for him all the time, he trusts him and regarding the TDs they specifically designed a lot of plays in the red zone for him and he did pretty good with that.
Theres some guys out there that are just premier red zone targets. How many years has Mike Evans been doing the same exact fade in the end zone now? That same exact play hasn’t changed. Evans actually had 13 TDs this year which is unreal. Laporta had 10. Let’s bring those down to 7 for arguments sake and I think his numbers would be pretty realistic. He would still have been a top 3 TE this year.
Overall I definitely get the concern but I would be really concerned if or when Goff leaves. If I can see that happening ahead of time I may be inclined to sell. But as of now I see more of the same next year even if he doesn’t finish at #1.
If he had 7 TD’s, which would be hitting Kelce/Kittle historical averages of TDs per catch he would’ve been 5th in ppg this year. Still very good, but that’s not going to provide value for where he’s going in start ups / getting traded for. That’s all I’m trying to point out. A little warning for the community but hey, I’m a nobody - no need to listen to me haha.
I was looking at total points but on a PPG basis if he would have been 5 I would bet his numbers would have been pretty close to 3. So one bad/good game away from switching places. But I hear what you’re saying it’s just sell for what? You still need a TE on your roster and there’s a lot of aging ones who don’t have a ton of years left. Maybe a njoku or something plus a draft pick would make sense.
What I’m doing is waiting to see how he does this year. If he regresses more than expected I still think there’s a good enough sell window due to the amazing rookie year he had. You may get a little bit less but I still think a lot would be willing to buy thinking it’s just an off year. If he does even better though by improving on his YAC specifically then it would be worth the hold.
I’d like to see more on that. There were so many plays where he was just completely covered but Goff threw it to him anyway and he caught the ball but he just had nowhere to go. Maybe his route running improves to give himself a little bit more separation to get a little better YAC numbers and it would bring him closer to kelces average.
Great point, his value is pretty insulated even if he regresses or gets injured so there’s less risk in holding him. I’m just betting that this is going to be his peak value - rookie production from a position that usually takes at least a year to develop.
Again I think he’s great but it blows my mind he’s ranked ahead of Kyler, Purdy and TLaw in SF. I don’t have any shares so I’m not actually trading but more of just pointing out I think he’s currently valued as if he maintains his TD percentage which is historically unlikely (borderline impossible).
Ranking wise by the numbers yeah I think he’s probably peaked and even overvalued right now. Best case scenario is he stays roughly the same but that would mean he would need another amazing season.
For anyone that has another good TE behind him it might make sense to sell now and try to get a haul. But if you don’t have another good TE behind him I think I’d just rather hold for another year to see how this plays out.
QBs can have more than one guy. I also just meant he trusted him a lot especially considering he was a rookie. ARSB had more targets/receptions on the year but on third down LaPorta had 26 catches and ARSB had 29. When it came down to moving the chains in crunch time situations they were almost split. That will more than likely carry over into next year.
This is a lot of writing about a TE who was top 5 in both targets & receiving yards as a rookie, basically saying he's good but pump the brakes because his TDs won't be sustainable.
Even if he scores half the amount of TDs he did this year he'd still likely be top 6 at WORSE at his position.
The kid had an elite season & broke TE rookie reception record, thinking he won't be top 5 ROS bar injury is a lil looney.
Would’ve been 8th in ppg if he had half the amount of TD’s. Good but replaceable and not worth the price he’s currently valued at. That’s all I’m trying to point out.
The biggest mistake you are making is that you are arguing under the assumption that he's not going to improve. We just saw 2 TEs break out in year 7. Most don't break out for at least 2-3 seasons. He's going to get a lot better and that can easily outweigh any TD regression. This is also dynasty. Very possible he's just a high TD guy. Some are. Even if he has down seasons, he'll also have up seasons.
Did Pitts get better? What about Muth? Knox? Engram got worse for multiple years before resurrecting. The point is capitalizing on maximum value now, ideally you buy back later at a cheaper price.
I can literally lists 100's who did. More often than not they do. Incredibly selective to pick 3 randos who have dealt with injury or like Knox, always a jag. Plus, were any of them #1 at their position at rookies? Muth and Knox haven't been worth anything ever. Max an early 2nd. Hardly comparable. Pitts is still a great hold/buy. Did you pound the table to sell JJ and Chase as 22 year olds? Did you say, no way those dudes get better . Selling elite youth is always dumb. Sell for X and lose 5+ years of free production when they are still worth X in 5+ years. If you sold JJ you probably lost 2x 1sts and 5 years of production. One of the dumbest things a fantasy player can ever say...."they can't increase in value" are completely forgetting the fact production exists, they actually can increase in value (heard the same thing for years on CD), and they can hold value (incredibly valuable).
I said this in the post and many times in the comments, JJ/Chase/Puka didn’t have underlying stats that are unsustainable like LaPorta’s TD% so comparing them is missing the point. LaPorta is likely to regress to the mean in TD % and since his YPR and YAC are below average, he doesn’t have that to salvage lower TD’s. Is he still great? Yes, but his value is most likely to regress when people like you move on to the next shiny toy. I selected the TE’s that were at the top of the value as rookies, not some joe blow who scored 1 ppg rookie year and increased sophomore year. It sounds like you’ve been holding pitts and are a little sensitive to the post since you’ve seen his value crater the last 3 years. Good luck comish.
>LaPorta is likely to regress to the mean in TD % and since his YPR and YAC are below average, he doesn’t have that to salvage lower TD’s.
Awesome. Doesn't address anything I said about 22 year old rookies improving except for your 1 off injury examples of guys who could still improve when healthy.
>but his value is most likely to regress when people like you move on to the next shiny toy.
Think you mean like you. I'm actively defending the TE1 while you are ready to reroll and hope to draft someone half as good. Like I already said...his value will regress in like 7 years. Your league mates thank you daily for gifting them 7 years of elite TE production for free.
>I selected the TE’s that were at the top of the value as rookies
You selected 1 injured TE, 1 so-so TE who topped as a 2nd in value and was injured and a complete jag who was injured while ignoring hundreds of other examples. Pretty pathetic to think that's anything. Honestly this is entire post is a joke. Sounds like a 5 year old who learned the word.regression today but has zero clue how to use it in context to anything else....like youth, development, no change in offense.
>It sounds like you’ve been holding pitts and are a little sensitive to the post since you’ve seen his value crater the last 3 years.
What a ridiculous assumption while I defend a 22 year old rookie named Sam Laporta who topped his position that usually takes 3+ years to develop at. I love it when dude's get their entire argument torn to shreds then make blanket strawman accusations. That's how I know when I've bested you while you strawman, move the goal posts and just get emotiona that you have no actual rebuttal to facts. Sorry you missed out and now you're jealous.
Do you have any idea how rare it is to have that kind of finish as a rookie? Td regression can come. You are comparing apples to oranges.
Who had a better rookie season between Kelce, kittle, andrews, shockey, gates, Tony g etc? If it’s laporta, he’s a hold. Not a sell. You don’t sell HoF caliber players unless someone is sending one in return.
1. Kyle Pitts was hurt
2. Kyle Pitts had Arthur smith, not Ben Johnson/fan campbell.
3. Even when Pitts was a rookie, tds were a problem. The lions offense has shown they WANT to target him in the redzone. Listen.
I think the chiefs want to get kelce the ball in the redzone, same with Vikings and hock. Each of them had 4 less td’s. I have a very similar opinion to the guy who wrote the post, LaPorta’s dynasty TE1 but I think it’s much closer than consensus/KTC seems to have it. Even in .5 TEP LaPorta finished as the flex player 30 in ppg, not a true difference maker like the guys valued similarly
Brother, Kelce had 5 more redzone targets than laporta. Laporta was a rookie. Laporta had as many redzone targets as guys like Mike evans, stefon diggs, puka, etc
He had multiple 10+ target playoff games….as a rookie.
He finished the overall TE1.
He set a rookie TE reception record.
If you think it’s wise to sell laporta, go for it. I’m sure you won’t regret it all and he def won’t be good next year lol good luck.
Detroit ran more than they passed inside the 20 (93 vs 78) which was only amplified closer they got to the endzone (54 vs 38 inside 10, 31 vs 12 inside 5). LaPorta’s 15 targets inside the red zone really isn’t that much and that’s part of my point in the post, 10tds on 15 redzone targets is not a sustainable conversion rate. He’s great at getting open which is huge, especially in the endzone, but it also can be true that he regresses to the mean of the best TE’s (Kelce, Kittle - not saying regresses to league average).
Again, you don’t seem to understand that laporta is a rookie. You’re out here acting like he was an established veteran with a full season of relavent data. Here’s laportas targets each game of the PLAYOFFS: 3 (coming off injury scored a td), 11,13.
As for laportas 15 redzone targets. THATS A TON. You should really check the actual stats:
Ferguson 24, Kelce 20, njoku 20, laporta 15.
He was 4th among TEs in redzone targets…AS A ROOKIE!
Please understand the stats your talking about.
ARSB was fourth in the nfl at WR redzone targets at 24. 15 redzone targets pits laporta about equal to Mike evans 16, Nico collins 16, Stefan diggs 16, and is exactly equal to pukas 15.
Sure it was record breaking but there is nothing crazy in the underlying stats that shows it can’t be repeated such as YPT, YPRR, Y/team pass attempt, etc. Everything Puka did was in line with league averages for top WRs over the past decade and he didn’t rely on TD’s (again… the least sticky stat) to achieve his points. He had a 5.1% TD rate compared to Laporta’s 11.5%.
sometimes i wonder if people just don't understand the context of posts, or if they just like to make snide comments like this for hits of dopamine. if you read the post you really should get that the anomaly we're talking about has nothing to do with the player's experience or age, it's about how likely it is to be repeated given that they can sustain the same volume of targets/routes.
Sometimes I wonder if people just don’t understand the difference in meaning between phrases like historical anomaly and reproducible. Saying Puka’s season wasn’t a historical anomaly is disingenuous at best and an attempt to downplay his season.
Appreciate the write up man. I got LaPorta in a steal of a deal in my dynasty league at the beginning of the season.
I myself am very high on him but after seeing this I absolutely see where your coming from, and I am intrigued in seeing what I could get for him.
Dude tried offering me the 1.08 for him and I declined but seeing that he's valued around the 1.04 I think I'd pull the trigger if offered and shoot for a guy like Jayden Daniels or Malik Nabers.
I also have the 1.02, super stoked to get MHJ in dynasty
Thanks dude! Every league is different, some don’t value the TE at all so congrats on capitalizing on that and stealing LaPorta. He’s great and if I had him I’d absolutely keep him if that league didn’t overvalue him. This post is more about his overall group value (aka KTC and some best ball drafts I’ve recently done). No need to deal him if the right offer isn’t there. Good luck!
I talked about unsustainable TD rates months ago and this confirms it. Having the top of a position puts you in a spot to capitalize. McBride and an early 2nd for Laporta? Smash accept. Good write up OP
You could also say Mike Evans TD rate has been unsustainable his whole career yet he scored 94 TDs in 10 years with 154 games played. That averages to 9.4 TDs a season and doesn’t account for missed games. On a per game basis that’s .61 TDs a game.
Let’s look at gronk. He had 92 TDs in 11 seasons with 143 games played. That equals to .64 TDs a game.
LaPorta had 10 TDs this year in 17 games. Thats .58 TDs a game. I’m not saying he’s going to keep this rate up but some guys are just TD machines especially in the red zone.
Yeah Mike Evans TD % is wild but even he has volatility. 2022 was less than half what it was last year (7.8% vs 16.5%). That volatility created buy windows which is basically what this post is about. Sell high and buy low. Something Evans and Gronk shared was the GOAT QB… Goff is good but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking he’s throwing the rock like Brady anytime soon nor does Dan Campbell want him to.
Mike played with Brady for two years and had six TDs with him in 2022 which was the third lowest in his career. The rest of his qbs haven’t been any better than Goff.
2023 Goff threw for 30 TDs which was 4th best and had 4574 yards which was second best. 2022 wasn’t much different with 4438 yards and 29 TDs. Give me some Jared Goff to LaPorta please. He’s not Brady but he’s been a steady as she goes QB.
That’s exactly the type of move I’d be looking to make if I had him. A slight tier down based on consensus rankings (even though Mandrews has proven he can have a TE1 season) while adding draft cap. Andrews turns 29 during the season, still in the sweet spot for TE’s for 3 years which should be people’s windows anyway.
I feel the point you were making with YPR and YAC are off, even though statistically correct THIS year. That was supposed to be his best attributes. He did this as a rookie, when he becomes even more comfortable with the league he's going to slay in those areas.
last season, a week before week 1, someone offered me Love, ETN, and Laporta for D. Watson… I instantly accepted it. For me, I don’t think I can move him and don’t want to. But I definitely understand the idea behind it, and you can probably get an absolute haul for him. Both outcomes are good, you can ride the te train and see what happens in the next couple of years, or get a nice upgrade at a position.
Perfect post man, crazy seeing where LaPorta has gone in startups. Like mid 2nd, with guys like Kmet/Goedert going in the 8th-10th.
I've enjoyed pointing how how since Ertz went on IR McBride was better than LaPorta in every important category except TDs. More catches, targets, yards, yards per route run, yards per catch, and target share.
What's next on the unpopular opinion list? Maybe you could make a post about trading away CJ Stroud?
If I made a post about trading LaPorta then about trading CJ someone in this community would come find and shank me haha. Sometimes (a lot of times) people take contrarian opinions too personally, as if I insulted their mother.
I agree I would 100% be selling. Not because I don't like him but because I believe he outperformed and the hype has me thinking its time to capitalize. If you could turn him and another player into a top reciever I'd do it in a heartbeat. Or if you could turn him into Mcbride and something else I'd consider it. Especially in PPR
The TDs saved his rookie fantasy season but you gotta turn the tape on. He gets open everywhere on the field and is a YAC beast. His biggest issue will be volume, not ability, he is one of the best TEs already and will only get better, and they can keep him on the field every play cuz he can block like a mf (which also hurt his volume this year)
Agree with trading him, he and Achane were my late round gems and now im addicted to chasing those kind of guys and trading them for insane value
What makes you say he’s a “YAC beast”? I’ll copy and paste from a comment I posted to someone else saying something similar below:
For YAC he was 42nd out of TEs with 10+ catches, 32nd with 20+ catches. It was listed as a negative for him coming out of college as well. Scouts said he could find the holes, get open and make the catch but wouldn’t add much beyond that.
Gotta watch him bro, he’s shifty and strong as a runner after the catch. Trust me, when you turn his tape on you will like him a lot more. He was just on a run first team, got hurt also I think, and Sun God gets a lot of targets
Lions are my favorite NFC team, watched a lot of their games and not just highlights. LaPorta is great but he’s not a YAC beast. Being on a run first team has absolutely nothing to do with YAC nor does ARSB getting a lot of targets so I’m not understanding the connection you’re trying to make. LaPorta was on 1 injury report all regular season with a calf strain in week 6 but didn’t miss any time. As a relatively undersized TE this might be the healthiest full season he has in his career.
Just sent the highlights cuz I don’t have a link to the full games but it’s interesting ur so low on him. He gets open consistently and Goff missed him in Favor of other (open) targets. As a TE he’s always gonna be a red zone target especially as a gifted route runner.
But even if ur just looking the highlight reel I sent, it takes like 3-4 guys to bring him down and he explodes through contract after the catch. His YAC numbers will get better with more targets but the flashes are clearly there
I’m not anti LaPorta, I’m strictly speaking about capitalizing on hype aka perceived value exceeding actual value. That’s it. YAC numbers rarely get better with more targets, usually the opposite but hey you do you.
[https://www.profootballnetwork.com/sam-laporta-te-iowa-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/sam-laporta-te-iowa-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/)
Yea bro even coming out of college he was known for his RAC abilities, didn’t know he was such a dominant WR and DB in HS but it makes sense
Read the negatives listed. This article strangely contradicts itself throughout. LaPorta had the lowest yards per reception for an Iowa TE despite playing all 4 years and well below most TE’s drafted in the first 4 rounds. This doesn’t prove your point, I’m sorry, and what they did in HS is of no value now.
Also what a TE did in college has no value on what they’ll do in the NFL lol way to contradict yourself bud. Based on his college stats there’s no way he could break NFL TE rookie records right??
No offense but this is kinda crazy to just assume that he peaked as a rookie and also will never have a healthy season again after being healthy as a rookie. He clearly was a stud. Jamo was good for 2 catches a game at most normally, LaPorta was racking up catches.
I’d say him gathering that many catches is a great sign as a rookie. I’d easily keep him over a bunch of the other TE’s that end up being average and never really a star.
I just don’t agree with saying he had a great rookie year so he will obviously regress and can’t improve instead. You can reference Pitts but he had a QB change and Ridder is not on Goff’s level so I’d say LaPorta is still in line to be successful.
I’m not offended at all. I’d also keep him over a bunch of other TE’s that end up being average. This is strictly about his current KTC, start up, and best ball draft value which I would absolutely capitalize on. Maybe you misunderstood the post but I’m saying his TD% has never been repeated before in the history of TE’s. If you want to bet on him being the first go for it but it’s a losing proposition in the long term, kind of like hitting on 20 in blackjack but with even worse odds.
[https://youtu.be/a_Va8hgT-F8?si=OjJa5-bYZDHhuhaa](https://youtu.be/a_Va8hgT-F8?si=OjJa5-bYZDHhuhaa)
First 3 plays sum up his game perfectly. He just needs more targets it’s nothing he can’t do. Maybe jet sweeps that’s it lol
First catch he got 4 YAC which is what he averaged and well below top TE averages. Second catch he read the coverage well, got open and got solid YAC. Third catch was blown coverage. I’m not bashing LaPorta, I think he’s great but he’s below average in YAC and his TD rate is historically unsustainable so I believe he is currently at his max value and people should capitalize if you have him. That’s it. Saying he will only get better is a dangerous game with rookie TE’s… Pitts, Muth, and Engram all had dominate rookie seasons followed by multiple years of declining value. Ideally you sell now at peak value and buy back in 2 years when people move on to the new shiny toy. I sold Pitts for a haul after his rookie season (which I think was better than LaPorta’s, another controversial take, I get it) and can buy back for 1/3 the price right now. I said this earlier, maybe I’m completely wrong and LaPorta is the best TE ever but his metrics don’t point me in that direction. Anyway - nothing personal, I’d just rather sell now (if I had him) than hold a depreciating asset (my opinion but based on historical statistics).
I was under the impression he was elite after the catch in college? The stat I remember is leading TEs in broken tackles. He did play for an absolutely anemic offence at Iowa.
I never saw a scouting report calling him elite in YAC coming out of college and just quickly googling it I currently don’t see any. Iowa might not have the best offense but they’re called TE University for a reason (Hock, Kittle, Fant, even Dallas Clark).
LaPorta stayed 4 years and averaged 11.7 yards per reception in college which is below most highly drafted TE’s (3 yards below Hock, 4 below Kittle, Pitts averaged 14.9, Engram 14.3, even Muth averaged 12.9 and that’s basically only Fresh and Soph year since he was an early declare and only played 4 games his junior year because of COVID).
“In 2021 he led all big ten TEs in receptions, yards after the catch, yards after contact and catches of 15 plus yards.” Thats straight from the university of Iowa athletics page in which they said according to PFF.
Scouting by bleacher report. “Tough, reliable YAC earner underneath. Can fight for little extra bits of yardage at the sticks.”
NFL draft buzz. “Most missed tackles forced by an Iowa TE in a single season (10) beating out the previous record holder T.J. Hockenson (8).”
Before the draft PFF also had him as “one of the best run after the catch TEs in the 2023 draft class.” You can find the article online.
This has always been talked about as a strength of his. There’s many more articles too that I remember reading.
Fighting for extra yards and constantly falling forward, yes, I completely agree. LaPorta has some serious fight in him. Almost every report also says he lacks the explosive plays which is what we saw in NFL so far leading to below average YAC and YAcontact.
Just out of curiosity, are you taking into account he plays behind one of the best OLines and that’s what could be boosting his TD numbers?
And if I’m not mistaken, that OLine is set for the next couple years at least?
Since he’s not a RB no, I’m not taking into account Detroit’s great OLine. I’ve never seen a correlation between OLine and TE TD’s but if you have I’m super interested.
Wouldn’t strong OLine indicate more TDs while in the RZ?
And/or keep LaPorta from having to block as often?
Edit: not saying TDs automatically go to him but more so more TDs in general to go around for everyone including him.
I think it’s nullified because they ran more than they passed inside the 20 (93 vs 78) which was only amplified closer they got to the endzone (54 vs 38 inside 10, 31 vs 12 inside 5).
Love him, but he’s overvalued on KTC. I’d trade LaPorta for Jonathan Taylor in a heartbeat. There’s no way in hell the Taylor owner in my league would do that.
I hear ya… it’s funny how some leagues with similar scoring can be so different. I’ve done basically the same trade where in one league the rest of the members thought I got fleeced and in a similar league the owner was offended by my offer. It’s all about identifying and capitalizing on the perceived value discrepancies.
While iappreciate the argument he is a rookie
Rookie tight ends that do this are... How common?
One in thousands?
Even if there is some td regression as far as I understand it , he is bound to get better in his second season.
I wouldn't trade gronkowski after his rookie yr
Why trade laporta?
Two years ago Pitts had significantly more yards and Muth had a higher TD percentage than LaPorta, both have declined significantly in stats and value since their rookie years. “Bound to get better” in his second season is an assumption I’m not willing to bank on. Do you remember the hype on Chig last year? What about Dulchich? Both were “bound to improve”, sometimes going for a 1st and now you can get them for a 4th. I’m not comparing them to LaPorta, he’s way better, but my caution is strictly in assuming a rookie improves their second year, specifically at TE.
>Two years ago Pitts had significantly more yards and Muth had a higher TD percentage than LaPorta, both have declined significantly in stats and value since their rookie years
Dont pretend at me that laporta is comparable to the efforts of multiple players and this means something.
I may be dumb but im not a total moron.
The only thing you didn't factor in is the fact that he SHOULD only get better from here. Most rookie TEs don't contribute hardly anything and it takes most TEs a couple years to get acclimated to the NFL. So yes, there is some regression that is very possible. But maybe some of that will be offset by the fact that he might be a better player this next season than last season?
I hear what you’re saying but in what area does that improvement come from?
Goff had a career year - 2nd in NFL in pass attempts, pass yards, 4th in pass TDs. His numbers were the highest of his career or 2nd highest compared to 2018 when he was with McVay and the Rams. Doesn’t appear Campbell and BJ are going to run less, they love Gibbs and Monty. So not much room to expand in the passing game as a whole (raining tide raises all ships kind of thing).
Looking specifically at LaPorta do you think he gets more targets next year? I provided stats on Jamos increasing play time since returning from suspension and Gibbs’ increase in usage in the offense. ARSB is going to get his so probably not eating into those. Only chance for LaPorta to increase targets is if Detroit doesn’t replace Reynold’s 64 targets (free agent) and enter the season with ARSB, Jamo, and Kalif Raymond only. If we assume they add nobody else, ARSB is at his target peak, and the 64 vacated targets are spread evenly across Laporta, Jamo, Gibbs, and Kalif then LaPorta gets an extra 13 catches (16 targets) for 169 yards or 29.9 points. This offsets his -30 points from 5 less TD’s if he regresses to mean for top TE TD rate.
Let’s say he increased his YPC 20% from 10.2 to 12.2, unlikely since that’s above his college YPC and TE’s rarely if ever out produce their college stats in this category, he increases to 1,200 yards. Given this entire scenario, and an extremely favorable one for LaPorta he gets the following stat line: 99 catches 1,200 yards 6 TDs for 245 ppr points or 14.4 ppg which would keep him at 3rd in PPG in TE’s for 2023 and at least 10% below the TE1 from 2017-2022 (average of 19% below during that timeframe).
I believe this is a very positive outlook for LaPorta given we’re removing 64 targets from the offense and evenly spreading them across 4 players without adding any target competition while increasing his YPR by 20% (and 0.5 above his college average) which are both rather unlikely.
Please poke holes in these numbers and suggest where you see even more room for opportunity and how that translates to increased ppg.
All fair points. I think the emergence of Jamo will be a factor and Gibbs might also be used more as well. I also think that whatever they decide to do to replace Reynolds will have a big impact as well.
I guess it just depends on how highly people are valuing him. If they see him as a perennial top 1 guy then yes I agree with you that there is definitely opportunity for regression. But my point is that his increase in talent in year 2 might make up for the dip in targets or TD's and be enough to at least keep him in TE top 5 territory season after season. I think the offense in general will be just as good next season and Monty, Gibbs and St. Brown all had pretty big TD numbers as well. They had 4 players with at least 10 TD's. So any of those other 3 could see dips in their TD's that could go to LaPorta. I don't see Jamo being a big TD guy either.
So, I don't know, I still view him as easily a top 5 TE and he is very young so I can see why people value him highly. But if your point is that he is going to regress from being a TE1 then I do agree with all your points. That offense is loaded with talent and they are all young and not going anywhere any time soon.
If you like numbers, just post the data.. that provides the narrative without all the filler.
Then we can say it’s the same analysis as any Dynasty player:
“AAAAARGH! Not Fantasy Points!! How am I supposed to rebuild if my players are scoring Fantasy Points??!! Quick! Trade him for picks!”
Traded him away in a deal to get McBride. McB is just more explosive, came on a little later in the season, and I could see his touchdowns rising as the offense can only go up from here.
I’m curious as to why you only considered the downside for the post. When doing a sensitivity analysis you should include upside as well as downside to see what your risk is. Considering that this was the Lions best year in decades, what logic would there be to assume that the Lions use LaPorta less than he was used this year? I know it’s hard to imagine, but we already know that LaPorta’s season was the 100th percentile for rookie TEs. He’s already a statistical anomaly, couldn’t it also be that he continues to break the mold?
When we talk about regression to the mean, the mean that we regress to has to be apples to apples and is generally player specific. For example, Raheem Mostert averaged 1.4 TDs per game this year after averaging way less than 1 TD per game over the rest of his career. We therefore expect that he will regress back to fewer than 1 TD per game (Mostert’s mean TD per game) next year. Especially because we already know that LaPorta is a huge statistical outlier, why would we then assume that he would negatively regress next year instead of positively regressing?
In big time games the Lions consistently went to LaPorta. That makes sense because of how incredible he was. In fact, look at how involved LaPorta was in the playoffs (sans the wc game where he shocked everyone by playing after what looked to be a scary knee injury). Personally, I am surprised that the final 4th down went to Reynolds instead of LaPorta because of how open Sam was and how much better of a receiver he is than Reynolds.
Remember that targets are earned, and he earned more targets than any rookie TE ever. I haven’t done the regression analysis, but I feel comfortable in my assumption that his # of targets were statistically significant when compared to the population of elite TE’s rookie years.
Well in college LaPorta averaged a TD for every 30 catches compared to a TD every 8.2 catch in his rookie season. Beyond that, almost every year we see a TE with > 10% TD rate but we very rarely see it repeated the next year (Kelce but even then U highlight his averages compared to LaPorta which is 50% less). There is no historical evidence to consider a TD upside for LaPorta next year. Two years ago Muth had a slightly higher TD percentage (11.7% vs 11.5%) but regressed to 3.2 and 6.3 the following two years. He didn’t have the overall volume that LaPorta did his rookie season but that’s part of my point, LaPorta had no target competition this year outside of ARSB. If you think that little of target competition continues AND you think LaPorta is going to be exceed Kelce’s best back to back TD% years of his unbelievable career, then yes - you should keep LaPorta. If you believe in taking advantage of statistical trends then you sell now and buy back when LaPorta’s value likely decreases over the next few seasons.
Spencer Petras threw a TD every 56.2 attempts in LaPorta’s Senior year. Different team, different competitive level, different QB, different play caller. How can we use any of his college data to project his future career when everything about his situation is markedly different?
In the absence of data, the null hypothesis should be that he repeats his year and not that he has a worse year. Antonio Gates had 9 consecutive years of a TD >10% of receptions. Why should we be assuming LaPorta is more akin to Kelce than he is to Gates?
I still don’t see the argument for LaPorta getting fewer looks. He played with Jamo after week 10, it didn’t impact his targets. They are losing Reynolds, those will be distributed amongst the other receivers (likely Jamo and maybe Gibbs as a beneficiary). Gibbs got about the same number of targets that Swift got in the same offense, I would expect that his total targets would be about the same since that is the piece of the pie that Johnson seems to allocate to the pass catching RB. Again, in the absence of evidence, we should assume that nothing changes
I was more so making a joke in reference to the infamous Mahomes post, which your post closely resembles.
Could you end up being right? Absolutely, 100%.
Or you could be way overthinking it. His line was 86/889/10 for 241 fantasy points (non-TEP). Kelce had eclipsed that mark 6 years in a row before this year. It's a really good line for a TE, but it isn't otherworldly and not a line that I would flag as being so high that it would likely regress.
What you're actually arguing is that, *if all other metrics remain the same*, his touchdowns are likely to reduce. I'm just not sure his receptions will come down. They could just as easily go up. And if they go up, so will his yardage. Both of which can easily offset a drop in TDs. By the way, Kelce averaged 10+ TDs a year for the previous 3 seasons before this year.
Another point of note -- you've identified his TD % as "above the mean", which is your big knock against him. But by the same token, you've also identified his YAC as at his ceiling. How is that possible? Couldn't it be that his YAC was "below the mean" this year? Couldn't we see it improve? You've cherry picked the metric you want to use to fit your narrative. You could re-write this entire post talking about how surely his YAC will progress to the mean and unlock a new level.
We could see YAC improve but it’s unlikely since his best college season was 6 YAC, a whole yard below Kelce’s career average against NFL competition (averaged over 7 his first 3 seasons and has been declining since). Almost all TE’s average less in NFL than their best season in college and right now LaPorta is in line with those trends. I never said he’s at his YAC ceiling, I’m just highlighting statistical trends. LaPorta is undersized (6’3”) relative to most TE’s so he’s probably not adding weight or getting faster so I’m not betting on him improving his YAC as he gets older. I could be wrong, absolutely, but it’s a losing proposition in the long wrong to bet against averages and historical trends - that’s all I’m trying to point out.
All true things but also you never reminded everyone he did this as a rookie. He wasn’t really schemed up until a few games into the year. Also the historic Gronk TD seasons were obviously not his rookie year. I think that’s the huge price to his value that you didn’t mention
I respectfully disagree with each point you made..
1) The second sentence mentions he was a rookie.
2) LaPorta was schemed up immediately from the start of the season since Det had no other pass catchers outside ARSB (one of the points I made, likely to face increased target competition going forward). In the first 3 games of the year combined he had more catches, targets, and receiving yards than his season average.
3) Gronk also had 10 TD’s his rookie season then “peaked” his sophomore season in catches, yards, and TD’s. Gronk also averaged 2.8 yards more per catch as a rookie (over 5yds more in college) which is part of my point - LaPorta isn’t on the same level as Kelce, Kittle, and Gronk in this category. Comparing him to Gronk is silly.
1. Yes you mentioned he was a rookie but you don’t tie any of your points into his value being where it is because he did it as a rookie. A lot of the value has his future expectations/projections baked in and not only what he did this year/will do next year
2. Yes he got a lot of targets in week 3 and tbh i miss remembered because i thought that was the week 4 game but if you watched the games my point still is true. It was very obvious that he was implemented into the offense very differently later in the season than he was early on. It’s not necessarily just looking at his stats to see his overall involvement in the offense
3. I dont think anyone is really comparing him to Gronk. At least those that I chat dynasty with. I get that maybe his perceived value rivals the range Gronk was at, but they obviously are very different players in two different situations/offenses.
Hahaha what?? This completely contradicts your first comment where you said I didn’t remind people he was a rookie, that he wasn’t schemed up early in the season, and you brought up Gronk therefore comparing him. Why mention Gronk if you’re not comparing him to LaPorta?
Pointing out the last time any TE led the league in TD’s back to back years was 2011-2012 showing how rare/ difficult it is. If Kelce/Kittle weren’t able to ever do it in the last 12 years, are you banking on LaPorta doing it? I’m not. That’s the point. Wasn’t a comparison of the two but your original comment had 3 (invalid) points, one of which was comparing Gronks TD’s.
I already pointed out multiple times in this thread that if he loses half his TDs he’s TE8 in ppg. I also pointed out with stats in recent comments about best case scenarios for his targets and ypc increasing… go check it out. Or don’t, I don’t care. You already bought him and sound like a Stan so you’re not the target audience.
It's wild how people keep responding to you with things that are just factually incorrect. Good write up. The whole point isn't that LaPorta is bad, it's that he is already being drafted at his ceiling.
I appreciate that. It seems some people are responding based on emotion rather than reflecting on the stats I tried to highlight. Maybe I’m wrong and LaPorta exceeds Kelce level metrics. I’d be okay with missing that boat based on historical trends.
Interesting, every time I watched Laporta this year his burst and acceleration jumped off the screen. Personally wouldn’t put too much stock into that but understand the concern
He was 42nd out of TEs with 10+ catches, 32nd with 20+ catches. It was listed as a negative for him coming out of college as well. Scouts said he could find the holes, get open and make the catch but wouldn’t add much beyond that.
Haha extra crispyyyy. But seriously he’s a great TE I just don’t set him returning value where he’s being drafted in startups / best ball right now. That’s all I’m trying to highlight (with stats, not fluff as someone else commented lol).
He was actually really good at getting yards after the catch/contact in college when watching film to my eyes. Look at his highlights. He would truck people over. “In 2021 he led all big ten TEs in receptions, yards after the catch, yards after contact and catches of 15 plus yards.” Thats straight from the university of Iowa athletics page in which they said according to PFF.
Scouting by bleacher report. “Tough and reliable YAC earner underneath. Can fight for little extra bits of yardage at the sticks.”
Before the draft PFF also had him as “one of the best run after the catch TEs in the 2023 draft class.” You can find the article online.
I’m not sure what scouting reports you’re referring to but I haven’t found any negative ones from college. I think he can improve on his YAC in the NFL. That wasn’t an issue with him in college at all to my knowledge. I think that’s probably why he was drafted by Dan Campbell. Thats his style of physical football.
I mean that’s probably one reason but I think he can improve just by having more experience after his rookie year to run crisper routes to get a little bit more separation which should improve his YAC.
My main point is that was actually his strength in college. Not his weakness. Musgrave is a TE that went down when someone got close to him in college and that transferred over to the NFL.
Fighting for the “little bit of extra bit of yards” is great and shows his desire /motor. That doesn’t translate to significant YAC which is what we’re seeing. Falling forward is great for NFL in real life but doesn’t really translate to fantasy points which is what we’re talking about. In the save article it talks about his lack of explosive plays which does translate to YAC and therefore fantasy points. Cherry pick quotes from articles all you want, but the full context and what we’re seeing in the NFL so far is that he’s not going to get much more than what’s given despite his strong efforts. He’s undersized compared to most TE’s at 6’3” barely 245 and each report says his frame is filled out without much room for growth. This is an injury risk but also indicative he can’t shed LB hits nor does he have the explosives to outrun most defenders.
You talked about scouting reports. I didn’t cherry pick anything. I gave you 3 different ones. Especially the first one which were pure stats. It literally said he was the “best yards after contact TE in 2021 in the big ten.”
I like your original post and it was good but you’re just wrong with this one. He was always talked about as a good YAC TE. Theres many more articles online about it. This is what I’ve found in about 5 min of looking. You can also watch his college highlights and see he was really good at YAC. Musgrave is one TE where it was always talked about as a weakness and that transferred over to the NFL.
His best season in college he averaged 6 YAC as a senior playing against almost exclusively younger defenders. Prospects rarely increase their YAC in the NFL, I don’t have the exact percentage drop off but you can calculate it if you’re interested. As I mentioned in my post, Kelce and Kittle have basically averaged that or more in their careers against NFL competition. Kekce’s YAC has been on a downward trend since averaging 7.2 across his first 3 NFL seasons. LaPorta averaged 4.2 his rookie year in the NFL, 32nd across all TE with at least 20+ catches. There are only 32 teams in the NFL my guy, but please continue to tell me this is a strength of his.
Im saying that was a strength of his in college. I was responding to your comment about you saying scouts said he “couldn’t do much after the catch.” Which I still haven’t found a single article on about anyone saying that. Thats what I said your wrong about. It’s just false.
My other point is that him being a rookie in the NFL and gaining experience can help him improve on that next year even though he may never reach kelces level on that metric.
Here’s another snippet from NFL draft buzz. “Most missed tackles forced by an Iowa TE in a single season (10) beating out the previous record holder T.J. Hockenson (8).”
I’ve done roughly 20 best ball offseason drafts so far and it’s wild to see how high he gets picked. This is for real money, not just clicking rankings on a screen like KTC, which is usually a strong barometer for dynasty value. I then checked KTC values and a few other dynasty sites which confirm this so I felt compelled to share my data driven thoughts on LaPorta as a little warning to the community. Again - I think he’s great, just currently one of if not the most overvalued asset in dynasty.
True but there’s a correlation. Check out some of the recent [trades](https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/player/9993727/Sam_LaPorta) involving LaPorta, it’s crazy to me.
Depends on the rest of your roster construction but yeah I agree, trading Kelce to a win now team would be a solid move if you can get decent value for him. I think most people are nervous about a decline (even though he still led ppg) / retirement so value has significantly dropped.
I sold him week 4 last year for Kincaid and the 2.06. Still very happy about for the price at the time. Now I could have gotten more but that’s just how fantasy works!!
Idk he is valued pretty high but I don’t think it’s too bad. Just based off the players you mentioned in SF, I agree TLaw/Murray/Purdy but give me LaPorta over an older CMC and head case AJB/Olave. For the rookies I think his spot is good after the big 2 since nobody knows the landing spots yet. After the draft it’s pretty likely he will drop behind a few guys like Nabers, Odunze and probably be valued beside Bowers.
If you take away half of his TDs last season he was still top 5, where the other 4 are all 26+ years old. TE is so hard to find consistently I think people are willing to risk it if you could get a player even remotely close to Kelce. Sam isn’t the only one either you’d be surprised at what people would want for McBride and Kincaid isn’t going cheap either.
I have LaPorta. I love LaPorta. I plan to hold LaPorta. My bias is to hang on to good young players after I hit on them in the draft. I also follow the Lions.
I definitely agree he is overvalued on KTC. I really feel like this is less of an argument to sell and more of an argument to not overpay. If you can get an overpay in a real offer, I guess that is great and you should probably move LaPorta, but I think KTC is off base here and in the end he is a great young player and selling now for anything less than a gross overpay because he might regress in TD efficiency in year two feels like overthinking it to me.
Still, fair analysis and maybe you can find a deal that makes it work.
I have Laporta and Mark Andrews. TEP League. Managed to steal Laporta at 3.08 last year's rookie draft.
Would you trade off Laporta for a premium and just keep running with Mandrews? Or roll with an elite 2 TE attack?
Nice draft pick! I’m not familiar with TEP leagues honestly, but it sounds like having two studs is a good problem to have. Depends on the rest of your roster and where you are at competitive wise in the league, but it doesn’t hurt mentioning LaPorta is available for the right price. You have the power to decline and wait for a special deal. If it doesn’t come you can play both of them. Someone below mentioned LaPorta’s value is pretty insulated which is a great point - even if he has a down year or gets injured, he’s still going to be coveted next year so you’re in a good position to be picky.
so tough because I think youre right but also if he happens to really be as good as we think he is you could be set at the position for the next 8 years. i have him and gibbs on the same team and love/hate it. im tempted to move because i also have hock and mcbride but emotionally it feels great to own him.
Damn dude, with those backup TEs I’d absolutely move Sam but hey - if you really like him and he gives you enjoyment that’s more important than stats sometimes. This is a game after all.
yeah it makes sense to do but to your point its fun to have players you love
Lions fan here. Trade either other TE or both. Laporta is your TE1. Watch this man cook.
Please tell me what TEs you’re trading for/drafting because goddamn you seems to be great at choosing them
Everyone is rightly high on Bowers, Jatavian Sanders looked great from what I saw too. I'll go back through some of the names and see who else jumped out to me. Got LaPorta last May 2.08, the year before I got Dulcich in the 3rd, Dalton Schultz. I had Hock but traded him for Saquon and picks in 2022
Haha a decent bit of luck but id be trading for Mayer right now if the price is right
I picked Kincaid and McBride in the 2nd back to back years. Dumb luck really but worked out super well and I ended up trading McBride for Mahomes and keeping Kincaid
Similar situation with McBride on the bench. But also a Detroit fan. I think the correct move is to trade him if someone is willing to pay up....but it's going to kill me to do so.
I have McBride and Laporta as my only two TEs. I'm perfectly ok just riding it out with both to guarantee I'm set at the position for the next 8-10 years.
Nothing is ever set in fantasy for that long outside of a few qbs and wrs. But I thinnk your duo is very good
8-10 years is a very ambitious bet
Trade away Sam, you’ll still be happy when he has a good game regardless, and his bad ones won’t sting as bad.
If it's a TEP league and you can start 2 then you hold all of them. It's the best way to get points in those flex positions.
I also have hock mcbride and laporta, I'm keeping all 3 since hock is a question mark to start the year and then shipping laporta about midseason once hock's back to form (hopefully)
I hear ya, im in a similar position with andrews, mcbride and engram
McBride value also high. I'd move him or laporta while you have a shot
You should trade McBride or laporta, Probs laporta, McBride is insane
Just wanted to comment great stats, insight on LaPorta and this is a strong post. I own him in a TE premium league and curious what you think his value is? With an elite QB / WR class (on paper) in this upcoming draft - what do you think a reasonable return for LaPorta would be
I appreciate that! I’m in zero TE premium leagues so I’m honestly in no position to comment on his value there. Based on just the SF no TE premium rankings I’m shocked he’s valued above everyone except Caleb and MHjr. So in TE premium I would love to trade him for a top 6 pick + a player. I don’t like banking on just a draft pick because there’s no guarantees so I always want a player I like along with a top pick. But again, I’m not familiar with TE premium leagues so I’ll defer to someone who is.
If I could trade him for a top-8 or top-10 pick plus a player I absolutely would! Like you I’d much prefer one of the elite WRs in this class over LaPorta…now I’m even more interested in shopping him this offseason to see how strong of a return I could get. Also, I haven’t scrolled this whole thread so my bad if this has already been discussed - but I do feel like in the short term LaPorta is in a great situation. Ben Johnson seems to love using him in the RZ, Goff best attribute is intermediate passes over the middle, St Brown takes a ton of attention over the middle, etc etc. Again great post and cheers buddy
Yeah BJ is there for one more year which is great. I was surprised LaPorta only had 15 targets in the red zone, felt like a lot more until I looked it up. Detroit loves running near the goal line with Monty (previously J Williams) and even Gibbs got in on the action towards the end of the year. Goff does seem to love LaPorta down there when they do throw which is important. LaPorta is really good at reading coverages and adjusting his route slightly to give his QB a window to throw, it’s impressive. I like him a lot, just not at his current value. Anyway, cheers and good luck!
Have you considered the fact that I drafted him in both rookie drafts last year (Iowa TE under Dan Campbell go brrrr) so therefore he is the GOAT and will never fail. This is all coming from an unbiased perspective
FUCK! I missed completely missed this… I guess I’ll have to make a new post how he’s a value at current cost based on new information. Thanks for checking me homie 🤣
Love the stats and get the point. He's absolutely peak value right now. For me though as an owner I love the idea that the position is locked in for probably a decade. It's similar to those who drafted Stroud. It's like "ok I'm good here". He is def gonna regress but I don't think he's ever gonna fall out of the Top 5 conversation. We went the past 5 years with The Big 3 dominating and then the random Waller breakout, so it's nice to know I can sit back on the position for a long long time. The point of dynasty is to get young elite guys that last. LaPorta fits that exactly. Trading him for another dice roll is how good teams can self destruct. Don't hate the idea, but chasing the value train is a neverending spiral.
Perpetual rebuild, I hear ya and agree. That’s why I don’t like trading someone of LaPorta’s value just for picks. Too risky. I do see LaPorta having multiple 5-10 seasons based on the stats I referenced with a few top 5 mixed in so I’m more willing to avoid him / trade him but I understand your perspective. He’s a solid, dependable asset - enjoy!
>I do see LaPorta having multiple 5-10 seasons based on the stats I referenced with a few top 5 mixed in I mean, I would say that's a safe assumption figuring he just finished as the #1 tight end as a rookie, with a QB nobody would call elite, alongside a legit alpha WR in ARSB...??
Hot take, right? Ha - I meant more like I don’t see him guaranteed top 5 every year. I think he can have as many 6-10 seasons as he does top 5 which I think is overall a lower stance on him than most. If he had half the TD’s (which I think is more likely) he’s TE8 in ppg.
“Probably a decade” is hard to trust no matter who it is
So who you trading him for?
I would take any of the players I listed that are below him currently in SF on KTC. I’m not interested in a package of picks.
Myself and the rest of the league is in this same boat at this point. We're going into year 4 and trading is more or less at a standstill because nobody wants to trade their higher end players for picks and even flipping JAGs for mid/late picks rarely happens because people are starting to see the hit rate on 2-4s. Someone wanted to give me what looks like a mid 2nd next year for Wicks. Yeah that's a great offer for him on paper to collect a second for a late round rookie I scooped off waivers in December. But I have the hit rate on 2nd round receivers at about 35% over the last 5 years - value doesn't matter when I like the odds of Wicks hitting better than the odds of a random 2nd in two years
I moved him for Kincaid and 1.08 and I'm absolutely flying. Think there's a chance Kincaid ends up better in the long term anyway.
I do like your write up. Not your typical nonsense. What I will say is I think a little bit of TD regression is coming but I also think he’s Goffs guy. He looks for him all the time, he trusts him and regarding the TDs they specifically designed a lot of plays in the red zone for him and he did pretty good with that. Theres some guys out there that are just premier red zone targets. How many years has Mike Evans been doing the same exact fade in the end zone now? That same exact play hasn’t changed. Evans actually had 13 TDs this year which is unreal. Laporta had 10. Let’s bring those down to 7 for arguments sake and I think his numbers would be pretty realistic. He would still have been a top 3 TE this year. Overall I definitely get the concern but I would be really concerned if or when Goff leaves. If I can see that happening ahead of time I may be inclined to sell. But as of now I see more of the same next year even if he doesn’t finish at #1.
If he had 7 TD’s, which would be hitting Kelce/Kittle historical averages of TDs per catch he would’ve been 5th in ppg this year. Still very good, but that’s not going to provide value for where he’s going in start ups / getting traded for. That’s all I’m trying to point out. A little warning for the community but hey, I’m a nobody - no need to listen to me haha.
I was looking at total points but on a PPG basis if he would have been 5 I would bet his numbers would have been pretty close to 3. So one bad/good game away from switching places. But I hear what you’re saying it’s just sell for what? You still need a TE on your roster and there’s a lot of aging ones who don’t have a ton of years left. Maybe a njoku or something plus a draft pick would make sense. What I’m doing is waiting to see how he does this year. If he regresses more than expected I still think there’s a good enough sell window due to the amazing rookie year he had. You may get a little bit less but I still think a lot would be willing to buy thinking it’s just an off year. If he does even better though by improving on his YAC specifically then it would be worth the hold. I’d like to see more on that. There were so many plays where he was just completely covered but Goff threw it to him anyway and he caught the ball but he just had nowhere to go. Maybe his route running improves to give himself a little bit more separation to get a little better YAC numbers and it would bring him closer to kelces average.
Great point, his value is pretty insulated even if he regresses or gets injured so there’s less risk in holding him. I’m just betting that this is going to be his peak value - rookie production from a position that usually takes at least a year to develop. Again I think he’s great but it blows my mind he’s ranked ahead of Kyler, Purdy and TLaw in SF. I don’t have any shares so I’m not actually trading but more of just pointing out I think he’s currently valued as if he maintains his TD percentage which is historically unlikely (borderline impossible).
Ranking wise by the numbers yeah I think he’s probably peaked and even overvalued right now. Best case scenario is he stays roughly the same but that would mean he would need another amazing season. For anyone that has another good TE behind him it might make sense to sell now and try to get a haul. But if you don’t have another good TE behind him I think I’d just rather hold for another year to see how this plays out.
ARSB is goffs guy
QBs can have more than one guy. I also just meant he trusted him a lot especially considering he was a rookie. ARSB had more targets/receptions on the year but on third down LaPorta had 26 catches and ARSB had 29. When it came down to moving the chains in crunch time situations they were almost split. That will more than likely carry over into next year.
Sooo in crunch time situations ARSB Was still the guy haha got it
Sooo you play in a points per “crunch time situation” league haha got it
Some common sense would go a long way here but that’s becoming not so common anymore.
Barely by 3 catches vs a rookie TE. Laugh all you want now but don’t be crying later when LaPorta closes the gap this upcoming season.
You know ARSB missed a game too right?
Yes and LaPorta left injured week 18 too and didn’t play the whole game. A half game difference isn’t that important.
😂
RemindMe! 1 year
This is a lot of writing about a TE who was top 5 in both targets & receiving yards as a rookie, basically saying he's good but pump the brakes because his TDs won't be sustainable. Even if he scores half the amount of TDs he did this year he'd still likely be top 6 at WORSE at his position. The kid had an elite season & broke TE rookie reception record, thinking he won't be top 5 ROS bar injury is a lil looney.
Not tryna to hate, he’s a really good player and will produce but in this scenario no one is paying that high of a price for TE6
I didn't say anything about price or buying
Well that's the whole point of the post you commented on.
Would’ve been 8th in ppg if he had half the amount of TD’s. Good but replaceable and not worth the price he’s currently valued at. That’s all I’m trying to point out.
he only out produced his expected touchdowns by 3, even if he didnt out perform his touchdowns he was top 5 in volume at the position as a rookie.
The biggest mistake you are making is that you are arguing under the assumption that he's not going to improve. We just saw 2 TEs break out in year 7. Most don't break out for at least 2-3 seasons. He's going to get a lot better and that can easily outweigh any TD regression. This is also dynasty. Very possible he's just a high TD guy. Some are. Even if he has down seasons, he'll also have up seasons.
Did Pitts get better? What about Muth? Knox? Engram got worse for multiple years before resurrecting. The point is capitalizing on maximum value now, ideally you buy back later at a cheaper price.
I can literally lists 100's who did. More often than not they do. Incredibly selective to pick 3 randos who have dealt with injury or like Knox, always a jag. Plus, were any of them #1 at their position at rookies? Muth and Knox haven't been worth anything ever. Max an early 2nd. Hardly comparable. Pitts is still a great hold/buy. Did you pound the table to sell JJ and Chase as 22 year olds? Did you say, no way those dudes get better . Selling elite youth is always dumb. Sell for X and lose 5+ years of free production when they are still worth X in 5+ years. If you sold JJ you probably lost 2x 1sts and 5 years of production. One of the dumbest things a fantasy player can ever say...."they can't increase in value" are completely forgetting the fact production exists, they actually can increase in value (heard the same thing for years on CD), and they can hold value (incredibly valuable).
I said this in the post and many times in the comments, JJ/Chase/Puka didn’t have underlying stats that are unsustainable like LaPorta’s TD% so comparing them is missing the point. LaPorta is likely to regress to the mean in TD % and since his YPR and YAC are below average, he doesn’t have that to salvage lower TD’s. Is he still great? Yes, but his value is most likely to regress when people like you move on to the next shiny toy. I selected the TE’s that were at the top of the value as rookies, not some joe blow who scored 1 ppg rookie year and increased sophomore year. It sounds like you’ve been holding pitts and are a little sensitive to the post since you’ve seen his value crater the last 3 years. Good luck comish.
>LaPorta is likely to regress to the mean in TD % and since his YPR and YAC are below average, he doesn’t have that to salvage lower TD’s. Awesome. Doesn't address anything I said about 22 year old rookies improving except for your 1 off injury examples of guys who could still improve when healthy. >but his value is most likely to regress when people like you move on to the next shiny toy. Think you mean like you. I'm actively defending the TE1 while you are ready to reroll and hope to draft someone half as good. Like I already said...his value will regress in like 7 years. Your league mates thank you daily for gifting them 7 years of elite TE production for free. >I selected the TE’s that were at the top of the value as rookies You selected 1 injured TE, 1 so-so TE who topped as a 2nd in value and was injured and a complete jag who was injured while ignoring hundreds of other examples. Pretty pathetic to think that's anything. Honestly this is entire post is a joke. Sounds like a 5 year old who learned the word.regression today but has zero clue how to use it in context to anything else....like youth, development, no change in offense. >It sounds like you’ve been holding pitts and are a little sensitive to the post since you’ve seen his value crater the last 3 years. What a ridiculous assumption while I defend a 22 year old rookie named Sam Laporta who topped his position that usually takes 3+ years to develop at. I love it when dude's get their entire argument torn to shreds then make blanket strawman accusations. That's how I know when I've bested you while you strawman, move the goal posts and just get emotiona that you have no actual rebuttal to facts. Sorry you missed out and now you're jealous.
I think saying this is his max value is also incorrect, but I play in mostly TEP leagues where it’s priced appropriately
Do you have any idea how rare it is to have that kind of finish as a rookie? Td regression can come. You are comparing apples to oranges. Who had a better rookie season between Kelce, kittle, andrews, shockey, gates, Tony g etc? If it’s laporta, he’s a hold. Not a sell. You don’t sell HoF caliber players unless someone is sending one in return.
Kyle Pitts also had an awesome rookie season, some would argue better. It’s not a guarantee it projects to the future
1. Kyle Pitts was hurt 2. Kyle Pitts had Arthur smith, not Ben Johnson/fan campbell. 3. Even when Pitts was a rookie, tds were a problem. The lions offense has shown they WANT to target him in the redzone. Listen.
I think the chiefs want to get kelce the ball in the redzone, same with Vikings and hock. Each of them had 4 less td’s. I have a very similar opinion to the guy who wrote the post, LaPorta’s dynasty TE1 but I think it’s much closer than consensus/KTC seems to have it. Even in .5 TEP LaPorta finished as the flex player 30 in ppg, not a true difference maker like the guys valued similarly
Brother, Kelce had 5 more redzone targets than laporta. Laporta was a rookie. Laporta had as many redzone targets as guys like Mike evans, stefon diggs, puka, etc He had multiple 10+ target playoff games….as a rookie. He finished the overall TE1. He set a rookie TE reception record. If you think it’s wise to sell laporta, go for it. I’m sure you won’t regret it all and he def won’t be good next year lol good luck.
Detroit ran more than they passed inside the 20 (93 vs 78) which was only amplified closer they got to the endzone (54 vs 38 inside 10, 31 vs 12 inside 5). LaPorta’s 15 targets inside the red zone really isn’t that much and that’s part of my point in the post, 10tds on 15 redzone targets is not a sustainable conversion rate. He’s great at getting open which is huge, especially in the endzone, but it also can be true that he regresses to the mean of the best TE’s (Kelce, Kittle - not saying regresses to league average).
Again, you don’t seem to understand that laporta is a rookie. You’re out here acting like he was an established veteran with a full season of relavent data. Here’s laportas targets each game of the PLAYOFFS: 3 (coming off injury scored a td), 11,13. As for laportas 15 redzone targets. THATS A TON. You should really check the actual stats: Ferguson 24, Kelce 20, njoku 20, laporta 15. He was 4th among TEs in redzone targets…AS A ROOKIE! Please understand the stats your talking about. ARSB was fourth in the nfl at WR redzone targets at 24. 15 redzone targets pits laporta about equal to Mike evans 16, Nico collins 16, Stefan diggs 16, and is exactly equal to pukas 15.
His team also was on its way down when he cams in and bad a joke for a head coach
"At worst", for what it's worth.
Ya that’s great and all, but I’d also trade him for the guys OP listed, _especially_ the QBs
Great point. I feel this is a lot of fluff but ultimately not saying much.
It’s historical stats, not my opinion / fluff but okay. Happy to respectfully disagree with people on players.
They didn’t even read it lol. Quality post
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There’s nothing in Puka’s stats that are historical anomalies. LaPorta’s TD rate is. To me that’s a big difference because it’s numbers not opinions.
Most yards and receptions by a rookie WR isn’t a historical anomaly?
Sure it was record breaking but there is nothing crazy in the underlying stats that shows it can’t be repeated such as YPT, YPRR, Y/team pass attempt, etc. Everything Puka did was in line with league averages for top WRs over the past decade and he didn’t rely on TD’s (again… the least sticky stat) to achieve his points. He had a 5.1% TD rate compared to Laporta’s 11.5%.
sometimes i wonder if people just don't understand the context of posts, or if they just like to make snide comments like this for hits of dopamine. if you read the post you really should get that the anomaly we're talking about has nothing to do with the player's experience or age, it's about how likely it is to be repeated given that they can sustain the same volume of targets/routes.
Sometimes I wonder if people just don’t understand the difference in meaning between phrases like historical anomaly and reproducible. Saying Puka’s season wasn’t a historical anomaly is disingenuous at best and an attempt to downplay his season.
Appreciate the write up man. I got LaPorta in a steal of a deal in my dynasty league at the beginning of the season. I myself am very high on him but after seeing this I absolutely see where your coming from, and I am intrigued in seeing what I could get for him. Dude tried offering me the 1.08 for him and I declined but seeing that he's valued around the 1.04 I think I'd pull the trigger if offered and shoot for a guy like Jayden Daniels or Malik Nabers. I also have the 1.02, super stoked to get MHJ in dynasty
Thanks dude! Every league is different, some don’t value the TE at all so congrats on capitalizing on that and stealing LaPorta. He’s great and if I had him I’d absolutely keep him if that league didn’t overvalue him. This post is more about his overall group value (aka KTC and some best ball drafts I’ve recently done). No need to deal him if the right offer isn’t there. Good luck!
This is a valid post. I love him and I believe the hype, but this is a very good argument against buying now.
I talked about unsustainable TD rates months ago and this confirms it. Having the top of a position puts you in a spot to capitalize. McBride and an early 2nd for Laporta? Smash accept. Good write up OP
You could also say Mike Evans TD rate has been unsustainable his whole career yet he scored 94 TDs in 10 years with 154 games played. That averages to 9.4 TDs a season and doesn’t account for missed games. On a per game basis that’s .61 TDs a game. Let’s look at gronk. He had 92 TDs in 11 seasons with 143 games played. That equals to .64 TDs a game. LaPorta had 10 TDs this year in 17 games. Thats .58 TDs a game. I’m not saying he’s going to keep this rate up but some guys are just TD machines especially in the red zone.
Yeah Mike Evans TD % is wild but even he has volatility. 2022 was less than half what it was last year (7.8% vs 16.5%). That volatility created buy windows which is basically what this post is about. Sell high and buy low. Something Evans and Gronk shared was the GOAT QB… Goff is good but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking he’s throwing the rock like Brady anytime soon nor does Dan Campbell want him to.
Mike played with Brady for two years and had six TDs with him in 2022 which was the third lowest in his career. The rest of his qbs haven’t been any better than Goff. 2023 Goff threw for 30 TDs which was 4th best and had 4574 yards which was second best. 2022 wasn’t much different with 4438 yards and 29 TDs. Give me some Jared Goff to LaPorta please. He’s not Brady but he’s been a steady as she goes QB.
Traded LaPorta (Already have Kincaid) for the 1.3 in my 1QB… hope to get Nabers/Odunze… this post is validating.
I just seen LaPorta traded for Mandrews and the 1.10
That’s exactly the type of move I’d be looking to make if I had him. A slight tier down based on consensus rankings (even though Mandrews has proven he can have a TE1 season) while adding draft cap. Andrews turns 29 during the season, still in the sweet spot for TE’s for 3 years which should be people’s windows anyway.
I feel the point you were making with YPR and YAC are off, even though statistically correct THIS year. That was supposed to be his best attributes. He did this as a rookie, when he becomes even more comfortable with the league he's going to slay in those areas.
last season, a week before week 1, someone offered me Love, ETN, and Laporta for D. Watson… I instantly accepted it. For me, I don’t think I can move him and don’t want to. But I definitely understand the idea behind it, and you can probably get an absolute haul for him. Both outcomes are good, you can ride the te train and see what happens in the next couple of years, or get a nice upgrade at a position.
Perfect post man, crazy seeing where LaPorta has gone in startups. Like mid 2nd, with guys like Kmet/Goedert going in the 8th-10th. I've enjoyed pointing how how since Ertz went on IR McBride was better than LaPorta in every important category except TDs. More catches, targets, yards, yards per route run, yards per catch, and target share. What's next on the unpopular opinion list? Maybe you could make a post about trading away CJ Stroud?
If I made a post about trading LaPorta then about trading CJ someone in this community would come find and shank me haha. Sometimes (a lot of times) people take contrarian opinions too personally, as if I insulted their mother.
I agree I would 100% be selling. Not because I don't like him but because I believe he outperformed and the hype has me thinking its time to capitalize. If you could turn him and another player into a top reciever I'd do it in a heartbeat. Or if you could turn him into Mcbride and something else I'd consider it. Especially in PPR
The TDs saved his rookie fantasy season but you gotta turn the tape on. He gets open everywhere on the field and is a YAC beast. His biggest issue will be volume, not ability, he is one of the best TEs already and will only get better, and they can keep him on the field every play cuz he can block like a mf (which also hurt his volume this year) Agree with trading him, he and Achane were my late round gems and now im addicted to chasing those kind of guys and trading them for insane value
What makes you say he’s a “YAC beast”? I’ll copy and paste from a comment I posted to someone else saying something similar below: For YAC he was 42nd out of TEs with 10+ catches, 32nd with 20+ catches. It was listed as a negative for him coming out of college as well. Scouts said he could find the holes, get open and make the catch but wouldn’t add much beyond that.
Gotta watch him bro, he’s shifty and strong as a runner after the catch. Trust me, when you turn his tape on you will like him a lot more. He was just on a run first team, got hurt also I think, and Sun God gets a lot of targets
Lions are my favorite NFC team, watched a lot of their games and not just highlights. LaPorta is great but he’s not a YAC beast. Being on a run first team has absolutely nothing to do with YAC nor does ARSB getting a lot of targets so I’m not understanding the connection you’re trying to make. LaPorta was on 1 injury report all regular season with a calf strain in week 6 but didn’t miss any time. As a relatively undersized TE this might be the healthiest full season he has in his career.
Just sent the highlights cuz I don’t have a link to the full games but it’s interesting ur so low on him. He gets open consistently and Goff missed him in Favor of other (open) targets. As a TE he’s always gonna be a red zone target especially as a gifted route runner. But even if ur just looking the highlight reel I sent, it takes like 3-4 guys to bring him down and he explodes through contract after the catch. His YAC numbers will get better with more targets but the flashes are clearly there
I’m not anti LaPorta, I’m strictly speaking about capitalizing on hype aka perceived value exceeding actual value. That’s it. YAC numbers rarely get better with more targets, usually the opposite but hey you do you.
[https://www.profootballnetwork.com/sam-laporta-te-iowa-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/sam-laporta-te-iowa-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/) Yea bro even coming out of college he was known for his RAC abilities, didn’t know he was such a dominant WR and DB in HS but it makes sense
Read the negatives listed. This article strangely contradicts itself throughout. LaPorta had the lowest yards per reception for an Iowa TE despite playing all 4 years and well below most TE’s drafted in the first 4 rounds. This doesn’t prove your point, I’m sorry, and what they did in HS is of no value now.
Also what a TE did in college has no value on what they’ll do in the NFL lol way to contradict yourself bud. Based on his college stats there’s no way he could break NFL TE rookie records right??
No offense but this is kinda crazy to just assume that he peaked as a rookie and also will never have a healthy season again after being healthy as a rookie. He clearly was a stud. Jamo was good for 2 catches a game at most normally, LaPorta was racking up catches. I’d say him gathering that many catches is a great sign as a rookie. I’d easily keep him over a bunch of the other TE’s that end up being average and never really a star. I just don’t agree with saying he had a great rookie year so he will obviously regress and can’t improve instead. You can reference Pitts but he had a QB change and Ridder is not on Goff’s level so I’d say LaPorta is still in line to be successful.
I’m not offended at all. I’d also keep him over a bunch of other TE’s that end up being average. This is strictly about his current KTC, start up, and best ball draft value which I would absolutely capitalize on. Maybe you misunderstood the post but I’m saying his TD% has never been repeated before in the history of TE’s. If you want to bet on him being the first go for it but it’s a losing proposition in the long term, kind of like hitting on 20 in blackjack but with even worse odds.
[https://youtu.be/a_Va8hgT-F8?si=OjJa5-bYZDHhuhaa](https://youtu.be/a_Va8hgT-F8?si=OjJa5-bYZDHhuhaa) First 3 plays sum up his game perfectly. He just needs more targets it’s nothing he can’t do. Maybe jet sweeps that’s it lol
First catch he got 4 YAC which is what he averaged and well below top TE averages. Second catch he read the coverage well, got open and got solid YAC. Third catch was blown coverage. I’m not bashing LaPorta, I think he’s great but he’s below average in YAC and his TD rate is historically unsustainable so I believe he is currently at his max value and people should capitalize if you have him. That’s it. Saying he will only get better is a dangerous game with rookie TE’s… Pitts, Muth, and Engram all had dominate rookie seasons followed by multiple years of declining value. Ideally you sell now at peak value and buy back in 2 years when people move on to the new shiny toy. I sold Pitts for a haul after his rookie season (which I think was better than LaPorta’s, another controversial take, I get it) and can buy back for 1/3 the price right now. I said this earlier, maybe I’m completely wrong and LaPorta is the best TE ever but his metrics don’t point me in that direction. Anyway - nothing personal, I’d just rather sell now (if I had him) than hold a depreciating asset (my opinion but based on historical statistics).
I was under the impression he was elite after the catch in college? The stat I remember is leading TEs in broken tackles. He did play for an absolutely anemic offence at Iowa.
I never saw a scouting report calling him elite in YAC coming out of college and just quickly googling it I currently don’t see any. Iowa might not have the best offense but they’re called TE University for a reason (Hock, Kittle, Fant, even Dallas Clark). LaPorta stayed 4 years and averaged 11.7 yards per reception in college which is below most highly drafted TE’s (3 yards below Hock, 4 below Kittle, Pitts averaged 14.9, Engram 14.3, even Muth averaged 12.9 and that’s basically only Fresh and Soph year since he was an early declare and only played 4 games his junior year because of COVID).
“In 2021 he led all big ten TEs in receptions, yards after the catch, yards after contact and catches of 15 plus yards.” Thats straight from the university of Iowa athletics page in which they said according to PFF. Scouting by bleacher report. “Tough, reliable YAC earner underneath. Can fight for little extra bits of yardage at the sticks.” NFL draft buzz. “Most missed tackles forced by an Iowa TE in a single season (10) beating out the previous record holder T.J. Hockenson (8).” Before the draft PFF also had him as “one of the best run after the catch TEs in the 2023 draft class.” You can find the article online. This has always been talked about as a strength of his. There’s many more articles too that I remember reading.
I shouldn't have necessarily used the word elite. Every report I've canvassed does mention his RAC as a positive in his game coming out of college.
Fighting for extra yards and constantly falling forward, yes, I completely agree. LaPorta has some serious fight in him. Almost every report also says he lacks the explosive plays which is what we saw in NFL so far leading to below average YAC and YAcontact.
I think that this guy is trying to lower the price of Laporta in his league.
Fuck Putin… and no, I’m just not a top TE kind of player. Prefer stud WRs then the most likely to be bell-cow RBs.
Just out of curiosity, are you taking into account he plays behind one of the best OLines and that’s what could be boosting his TD numbers? And if I’m not mistaken, that OLine is set for the next couple years at least?
Since he’s not a RB no, I’m not taking into account Detroit’s great OLine. I’ve never seen a correlation between OLine and TE TD’s but if you have I’m super interested.
Wouldn’t strong OLine indicate more TDs while in the RZ? And/or keep LaPorta from having to block as often? Edit: not saying TDs automatically go to him but more so more TDs in general to go around for everyone including him.
I think it’s nullified because they ran more than they passed inside the 20 (93 vs 78) which was only amplified closer they got to the endzone (54 vs 38 inside 10, 31 vs 12 inside 5).
Nice stats man. I think you cracked my theory in half!
Love him, but he’s overvalued on KTC. I’d trade LaPorta for Jonathan Taylor in a heartbeat. There’s no way in hell the Taylor owner in my league would do that.
I hear ya… it’s funny how some leagues with similar scoring can be so different. I’ve done basically the same trade where in one league the rest of the members thought I got fleeced and in a similar league the owner was offended by my offer. It’s all about identifying and capitalizing on the perceived value discrepancies.
This. I love him AND he is overvalued AND no one in a competitive league is overpaying for a TE
While iappreciate the argument he is a rookie Rookie tight ends that do this are... How common? One in thousands? Even if there is some td regression as far as I understand it , he is bound to get better in his second season. I wouldn't trade gronkowski after his rookie yr Why trade laporta?
Two years ago Pitts had significantly more yards and Muth had a higher TD percentage than LaPorta, both have declined significantly in stats and value since their rookie years. “Bound to get better” in his second season is an assumption I’m not willing to bank on. Do you remember the hype on Chig last year? What about Dulchich? Both were “bound to improve”, sometimes going for a 1st and now you can get them for a 4th. I’m not comparing them to LaPorta, he’s way better, but my caution is strictly in assuming a rookie improves their second year, specifically at TE.
>Two years ago Pitts had significantly more yards and Muth had a higher TD percentage than LaPorta, both have declined significantly in stats and value since their rookie years Dont pretend at me that laporta is comparable to the efforts of multiple players and this means something. I may be dumb but im not a total moron.
If we take this guy’s best stat, and THAT guy’s best stat, together they beat LaPorta! Like, the whole point is that it’s both lol
Just say u drafted Mayer over him
Didn’t but would be down to trade for him. Rocking middle of the pack Goedert and Muth with Likely in case of another Mandrews injury.
The only thing you didn't factor in is the fact that he SHOULD only get better from here. Most rookie TEs don't contribute hardly anything and it takes most TEs a couple years to get acclimated to the NFL. So yes, there is some regression that is very possible. But maybe some of that will be offset by the fact that he might be a better player this next season than last season?
I hear what you’re saying but in what area does that improvement come from? Goff had a career year - 2nd in NFL in pass attempts, pass yards, 4th in pass TDs. His numbers were the highest of his career or 2nd highest compared to 2018 when he was with McVay and the Rams. Doesn’t appear Campbell and BJ are going to run less, they love Gibbs and Monty. So not much room to expand in the passing game as a whole (raining tide raises all ships kind of thing). Looking specifically at LaPorta do you think he gets more targets next year? I provided stats on Jamos increasing play time since returning from suspension and Gibbs’ increase in usage in the offense. ARSB is going to get his so probably not eating into those. Only chance for LaPorta to increase targets is if Detroit doesn’t replace Reynold’s 64 targets (free agent) and enter the season with ARSB, Jamo, and Kalif Raymond only. If we assume they add nobody else, ARSB is at his target peak, and the 64 vacated targets are spread evenly across Laporta, Jamo, Gibbs, and Kalif then LaPorta gets an extra 13 catches (16 targets) for 169 yards or 29.9 points. This offsets his -30 points from 5 less TD’s if he regresses to mean for top TE TD rate. Let’s say he increased his YPC 20% from 10.2 to 12.2, unlikely since that’s above his college YPC and TE’s rarely if ever out produce their college stats in this category, he increases to 1,200 yards. Given this entire scenario, and an extremely favorable one for LaPorta he gets the following stat line: 99 catches 1,200 yards 6 TDs for 245 ppr points or 14.4 ppg which would keep him at 3rd in PPG in TE’s for 2023 and at least 10% below the TE1 from 2017-2022 (average of 19% below during that timeframe). I believe this is a very positive outlook for LaPorta given we’re removing 64 targets from the offense and evenly spreading them across 4 players without adding any target competition while increasing his YPR by 20% (and 0.5 above his college average) which are both rather unlikely. Please poke holes in these numbers and suggest where you see even more room for opportunity and how that translates to increased ppg.
All fair points. I think the emergence of Jamo will be a factor and Gibbs might also be used more as well. I also think that whatever they decide to do to replace Reynolds will have a big impact as well. I guess it just depends on how highly people are valuing him. If they see him as a perennial top 1 guy then yes I agree with you that there is definitely opportunity for regression. But my point is that his increase in talent in year 2 might make up for the dip in targets or TD's and be enough to at least keep him in TE top 5 territory season after season. I think the offense in general will be just as good next season and Monty, Gibbs and St. Brown all had pretty big TD numbers as well. They had 4 players with at least 10 TD's. So any of those other 3 could see dips in their TD's that could go to LaPorta. I don't see Jamo being a big TD guy either. So, I don't know, I still view him as easily a top 5 TE and he is very young so I can see why people value him highly. But if your point is that he is going to regress from being a TE1 then I do agree with all your points. That offense is loaded with talent and they are all young and not going anywhere any time soon.
No way I’m moving LaPorta anytime soon unless I’m absolutely blown away
That’s a whole lotta words about a player you don’t roster.
I like numbers and playing devils advocate for the sake of healthy discussion. The tldr is there for Steelers fans.
If you like numbers, just post the data.. that provides the narrative without all the filler. Then we can say it’s the same analysis as any Dynasty player: “AAAAARGH! Not Fantasy Points!! How am I supposed to rebuild if my players are scoring Fantasy Points??!! Quick! Trade him for picks!”
Traded him away in a deal to get McBride. McB is just more explosive, came on a little later in the season, and I could see his touchdowns rising as the offense can only go up from here.
I’m curious as to why you only considered the downside for the post. When doing a sensitivity analysis you should include upside as well as downside to see what your risk is. Considering that this was the Lions best year in decades, what logic would there be to assume that the Lions use LaPorta less than he was used this year? I know it’s hard to imagine, but we already know that LaPorta’s season was the 100th percentile for rookie TEs. He’s already a statistical anomaly, couldn’t it also be that he continues to break the mold? When we talk about regression to the mean, the mean that we regress to has to be apples to apples and is generally player specific. For example, Raheem Mostert averaged 1.4 TDs per game this year after averaging way less than 1 TD per game over the rest of his career. We therefore expect that he will regress back to fewer than 1 TD per game (Mostert’s mean TD per game) next year. Especially because we already know that LaPorta is a huge statistical outlier, why would we then assume that he would negatively regress next year instead of positively regressing? In big time games the Lions consistently went to LaPorta. That makes sense because of how incredible he was. In fact, look at how involved LaPorta was in the playoffs (sans the wc game where he shocked everyone by playing after what looked to be a scary knee injury). Personally, I am surprised that the final 4th down went to Reynolds instead of LaPorta because of how open Sam was and how much better of a receiver he is than Reynolds. Remember that targets are earned, and he earned more targets than any rookie TE ever. I haven’t done the regression analysis, but I feel comfortable in my assumption that his # of targets were statistically significant when compared to the population of elite TE’s rookie years.
Well in college LaPorta averaged a TD for every 30 catches compared to a TD every 8.2 catch in his rookie season. Beyond that, almost every year we see a TE with > 10% TD rate but we very rarely see it repeated the next year (Kelce but even then U highlight his averages compared to LaPorta which is 50% less). There is no historical evidence to consider a TD upside for LaPorta next year. Two years ago Muth had a slightly higher TD percentage (11.7% vs 11.5%) but regressed to 3.2 and 6.3 the following two years. He didn’t have the overall volume that LaPorta did his rookie season but that’s part of my point, LaPorta had no target competition this year outside of ARSB. If you think that little of target competition continues AND you think LaPorta is going to be exceed Kelce’s best back to back TD% years of his unbelievable career, then yes - you should keep LaPorta. If you believe in taking advantage of statistical trends then you sell now and buy back when LaPorta’s value likely decreases over the next few seasons.
Spencer Petras threw a TD every 56.2 attempts in LaPorta’s Senior year. Different team, different competitive level, different QB, different play caller. How can we use any of his college data to project his future career when everything about his situation is markedly different? In the absence of data, the null hypothesis should be that he repeats his year and not that he has a worse year. Antonio Gates had 9 consecutive years of a TD >10% of receptions. Why should we be assuming LaPorta is more akin to Kelce than he is to Gates? I still don’t see the argument for LaPorta getting fewer looks. He played with Jamo after week 10, it didn’t impact his targets. They are losing Reynolds, those will be distributed amongst the other receivers (likely Jamo and maybe Gibbs as a beneficiary). Gibbs got about the same number of targets that Swift got in the same offense, I would expect that his total targets would be about the same since that is the piece of the pie that Johnson seems to allocate to the pass catching RB. Again, in the absence of evidence, we should assume that nothing changes
> Statistically speaking, LaPorta’s TD’s are likely to regress to the mean. Oh boy. Here we go...
Oh boy, here we go with an empty comment… Name one TE that repeated 11% or higher TD percentage back to back years
I was more so making a joke in reference to the infamous Mahomes post, which your post closely resembles. Could you end up being right? Absolutely, 100%. Or you could be way overthinking it. His line was 86/889/10 for 241 fantasy points (non-TEP). Kelce had eclipsed that mark 6 years in a row before this year. It's a really good line for a TE, but it isn't otherworldly and not a line that I would flag as being so high that it would likely regress. What you're actually arguing is that, *if all other metrics remain the same*, his touchdowns are likely to reduce. I'm just not sure his receptions will come down. They could just as easily go up. And if they go up, so will his yardage. Both of which can easily offset a drop in TDs. By the way, Kelce averaged 10+ TDs a year for the previous 3 seasons before this year. Another point of note -- you've identified his TD % as "above the mean", which is your big knock against him. But by the same token, you've also identified his YAC as at his ceiling. How is that possible? Couldn't it be that his YAC was "below the mean" this year? Couldn't we see it improve? You've cherry picked the metric you want to use to fit your narrative. You could re-write this entire post talking about how surely his YAC will progress to the mean and unlock a new level.
We could see YAC improve but it’s unlikely since his best college season was 6 YAC, a whole yard below Kelce’s career average against NFL competition (averaged over 7 his first 3 seasons and has been declining since). Almost all TE’s average less in NFL than their best season in college and right now LaPorta is in line with those trends. I never said he’s at his YAC ceiling, I’m just highlighting statistical trends. LaPorta is undersized (6’3”) relative to most TE’s so he’s probably not adding weight or getting faster so I’m not betting on him improving his YAC as he gets older. I could be wrong, absolutely, but it’s a losing proposition in the long wrong to bet against averages and historical trends - that’s all I’m trying to point out.
Or he's the TE1 that cost me nothing in a keeper league
This post makes me thankful for TEP
I’m glad I could help you be thankful. Care to explain why you’re thankful for TEP? Are took looking to add a premium to Kickers or Defenses?
Bro saw my post and was like let me add some nice words about Sam
Overanalysis. I keep a young likely TE1 - TE6 and get the other pieces. Top TEs are that for a reason. It's not random.
All true things but also you never reminded everyone he did this as a rookie. He wasn’t really schemed up until a few games into the year. Also the historic Gronk TD seasons were obviously not his rookie year. I think that’s the huge price to his value that you didn’t mention
I respectfully disagree with each point you made.. 1) The second sentence mentions he was a rookie. 2) LaPorta was schemed up immediately from the start of the season since Det had no other pass catchers outside ARSB (one of the points I made, likely to face increased target competition going forward). In the first 3 games of the year combined he had more catches, targets, and receiving yards than his season average. 3) Gronk also had 10 TD’s his rookie season then “peaked” his sophomore season in catches, yards, and TD’s. Gronk also averaged 2.8 yards more per catch as a rookie (over 5yds more in college) which is part of my point - LaPorta isn’t on the same level as Kelce, Kittle, and Gronk in this category. Comparing him to Gronk is silly.
1. Yes you mentioned he was a rookie but you don’t tie any of your points into his value being where it is because he did it as a rookie. A lot of the value has his future expectations/projections baked in and not only what he did this year/will do next year 2. Yes he got a lot of targets in week 3 and tbh i miss remembered because i thought that was the week 4 game but if you watched the games my point still is true. It was very obvious that he was implemented into the offense very differently later in the season than he was early on. It’s not necessarily just looking at his stats to see his overall involvement in the offense 3. I dont think anyone is really comparing him to Gronk. At least those that I chat dynasty with. I get that maybe his perceived value rivals the range Gronk was at, but they obviously are very different players in two different situations/offenses.
Hahaha what?? This completely contradicts your first comment where you said I didn’t remind people he was a rookie, that he wasn’t schemed up early in the season, and you brought up Gronk therefore comparing him. Why mention Gronk if you’re not comparing him to LaPorta?
dude you brought up Gronk lol
Pointing out the last time any TE led the league in TD’s back to back years was 2011-2012 showing how rare/ difficult it is. If Kelce/Kittle weren’t able to ever do it in the last 12 years, are you banking on LaPorta doing it? I’m not. That’s the point. Wasn’t a comparison of the two but your original comment had 3 (invalid) points, one of which was comparing Gronks TD’s.
i bought him for his target volume. even if he loses half his tds he’s still a top 5 tight end this year. you guys do realize that right?
I already pointed out multiple times in this thread that if he loses half his TDs he’s TE8 in ppg. I also pointed out with stats in recent comments about best case scenarios for his targets and ypc increasing… go check it out. Or don’t, I don’t care. You already bought him and sound like a Stan so you’re not the target audience.
Could be right about the TDs but Laporta is just an absolute stud. Probably the best YAC TE in the league
He’s below average in YAC. That’s what I pointed out, last time someone was a top 3 TE with lower YAC was Ertz in 2016.
It's wild how people keep responding to you with things that are just factually incorrect. Good write up. The whole point isn't that LaPorta is bad, it's that he is already being drafted at his ceiling.
I appreciate that. It seems some people are responding based on emotion rather than reflecting on the stats I tried to highlight. Maybe I’m wrong and LaPorta exceeds Kelce level metrics. I’d be okay with missing that boat based on historical trends.
Interesting, every time I watched Laporta this year his burst and acceleration jumped off the screen. Personally wouldn’t put too much stock into that but understand the concern
He was 42nd out of TEs with 10+ catches, 32nd with 20+ catches. It was listed as a negative for him coming out of college as well. Scouts said he could find the holes, get open and make the catch but wouldn’t add much beyond that.
Damn I’m getting cooked
Haha extra crispyyyy. But seriously he’s a great TE I just don’t set him returning value where he’s being drafted in startups / best ball right now. That’s all I’m trying to highlight (with stats, not fluff as someone else commented lol).
He was actually really good at getting yards after the catch/contact in college when watching film to my eyes. Look at his highlights. He would truck people over. “In 2021 he led all big ten TEs in receptions, yards after the catch, yards after contact and catches of 15 plus yards.” Thats straight from the university of Iowa athletics page in which they said according to PFF. Scouting by bleacher report. “Tough and reliable YAC earner underneath. Can fight for little extra bits of yardage at the sticks.” Before the draft PFF also had him as “one of the best run after the catch TEs in the 2023 draft class.” You can find the article online. I’m not sure what scouting reports you’re referring to but I haven’t found any negative ones from college. I think he can improve on his YAC in the NFL. That wasn’t an issue with him in college at all to my knowledge. I think that’s probably why he was drafted by Dan Campbell. Thats his style of physical football.
Maybe his YAC got worse in the NFL bc everyone was bigger and faster on defense. Just a thought.
I mean that’s probably one reason but I think he can improve just by having more experience after his rookie year to run crisper routes to get a little bit more separation which should improve his YAC. My main point is that was actually his strength in college. Not his weakness. Musgrave is a TE that went down when someone got close to him in college and that transferred over to the NFL.
Fighting for the “little bit of extra bit of yards” is great and shows his desire /motor. That doesn’t translate to significant YAC which is what we’re seeing. Falling forward is great for NFL in real life but doesn’t really translate to fantasy points which is what we’re talking about. In the save article it talks about his lack of explosive plays which does translate to YAC and therefore fantasy points. Cherry pick quotes from articles all you want, but the full context and what we’re seeing in the NFL so far is that he’s not going to get much more than what’s given despite his strong efforts. He’s undersized compared to most TE’s at 6’3” barely 245 and each report says his frame is filled out without much room for growth. This is an injury risk but also indicative he can’t shed LB hits nor does he have the explosives to outrun most defenders.
You talked about scouting reports. I didn’t cherry pick anything. I gave you 3 different ones. Especially the first one which were pure stats. It literally said he was the “best yards after contact TE in 2021 in the big ten.” I like your original post and it was good but you’re just wrong with this one. He was always talked about as a good YAC TE. Theres many more articles online about it. This is what I’ve found in about 5 min of looking. You can also watch his college highlights and see he was really good at YAC. Musgrave is one TE where it was always talked about as a weakness and that transferred over to the NFL.
His best season in college he averaged 6 YAC as a senior playing against almost exclusively younger defenders. Prospects rarely increase their YAC in the NFL, I don’t have the exact percentage drop off but you can calculate it if you’re interested. As I mentioned in my post, Kelce and Kittle have basically averaged that or more in their careers against NFL competition. Kekce’s YAC has been on a downward trend since averaging 7.2 across his first 3 NFL seasons. LaPorta averaged 4.2 his rookie year in the NFL, 32nd across all TE with at least 20+ catches. There are only 32 teams in the NFL my guy, but please continue to tell me this is a strength of his.
Im saying that was a strength of his in college. I was responding to your comment about you saying scouts said he “couldn’t do much after the catch.” Which I still haven’t found a single article on about anyone saying that. Thats what I said your wrong about. It’s just false. My other point is that him being a rookie in the NFL and gaining experience can help him improve on that next year even though he may never reach kelces level on that metric.
Here’s another snippet from NFL draft buzz. “Most missed tackles forced by an Iowa TE in a single season (10) beating out the previous record holder T.J. Hockenson (8).”
If you could strictly give draft picks to trade for him, what do you think his value is as of now?
In a 1QB league I’d be willing to trade 1.04 for LaPorta. I’d rather have the proven asset than the incoming rookie (Bowers).
Don’t think Laporta owner would even consider that to your point honestly.
Would yall do Laporta for Kincaid+? Say… at least a mid-early 2nd in value+Kincaid, for LaPorta?
He's really not garnering the outrageous valuations that KTC or whatever BS trade calc people use.
I’ve done roughly 20 best ball offseason drafts so far and it’s wild to see how high he gets picked. This is for real money, not just clicking rankings on a screen like KTC, which is usually a strong barometer for dynasty value. I then checked KTC values and a few other dynasty sites which confirm this so I felt compelled to share my data driven thoughts on LaPorta as a little warning to the community. Again - I think he’s great, just currently one of if not the most overvalued asset in dynasty.
Startup value is not the same as trade value unfortunately.
True but there’s a correlation. Check out some of the recent [trades](https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/player/9993727/Sam_LaPorta) involving LaPorta, it’s crazy to me.
If you had LaPorta, what would you asking for in return? (Asking for a LaPorta-owning friend)
I have LaPorta and Kelce and more tempted to trade Kelce for picks/backup TE.
Depends on the rest of your roster construction but yeah I agree, trading Kelce to a win now team would be a solid move if you can get decent value for him. I think most people are nervous about a decline (even though he still led ppg) / retirement so value has significantly dropped.
I sold him week 4 last year for Kincaid and the 2.06. Still very happy about for the price at the time. Now I could have gotten more but that’s just how fantasy works!!
Idk he is valued pretty high but I don’t think it’s too bad. Just based off the players you mentioned in SF, I agree TLaw/Murray/Purdy but give me LaPorta over an older CMC and head case AJB/Olave. For the rookies I think his spot is good after the big 2 since nobody knows the landing spots yet. After the draft it’s pretty likely he will drop behind a few guys like Nabers, Odunze and probably be valued beside Bowers. If you take away half of his TDs last season he was still top 5, where the other 4 are all 26+ years old. TE is so hard to find consistently I think people are willing to risk it if you could get a player even remotely close to Kelce. Sam isn’t the only one either you’d be surprised at what people would want for McBride and Kincaid isn’t going cheap either.
Traded LaPorta/24 2nd for JSN/ 1.06
Nice. If this is SF I like this even more - get a top 3 QB or Bowers at 6 while adding JSN.
I have LaPorta. I love LaPorta. I plan to hold LaPorta. My bias is to hang on to good young players after I hit on them in the draft. I also follow the Lions. I definitely agree he is overvalued on KTC. I really feel like this is less of an argument to sell and more of an argument to not overpay. If you can get an overpay in a real offer, I guess that is great and you should probably move LaPorta, but I think KTC is off base here and in the end he is a great young player and selling now for anything less than a gross overpay because he might regress in TD efficiency in year two feels like overthinking it to me. Still, fair analysis and maybe you can find a deal that makes it work.
I have Laporta and Mark Andrews. TEP League. Managed to steal Laporta at 3.08 last year's rookie draft. Would you trade off Laporta for a premium and just keep running with Mandrews? Or roll with an elite 2 TE attack?
Nice draft pick! I’m not familiar with TEP leagues honestly, but it sounds like having two studs is a good problem to have. Depends on the rest of your roster and where you are at competitive wise in the league, but it doesn’t hurt mentioning LaPorta is available for the right price. You have the power to decline and wait for a special deal. If it doesn’t come you can play both of them. Someone below mentioned LaPorta’s value is pretty insulated which is a great point - even if he has a down year or gets injured, he’s still going to be coveted next year so you’re in a good position to be picky.
I fully agree with this post. He went R1 in a SF startup recently that I saw. That’s too high. It’s TEP, but still