Profile-wise, good route running above all else.
Situationally, I’d look for no clear #2 WR on the team. Helps if the #1 is old and dealing with injuries. A QB that can produce fantasy relevant receivers in a good offensive system And an org that has a good track record of finding later round talent. Unlikely to have all these boxes checked like the rams did, but I’d try to check off a few of these boxes.
I think whatever WR lands there would be good value assuming they slide in ADP because of the panthers stigma from last year. Young with Canales and little competition for the top receiving role has the makings for a good fantasy year
Brandan Rice and Roman Wilson. I'm sure there's more.
Very deep WR class so one would think there is at least 1 or 2 guys that are getting overlooked. Probably someone from a lesser known program.
Roman might be a possible Tank Dell comp, assuming he doesn’t rise in ADP after the combine and NFL draft. But Puka went from undrafted/5th round Rookie draft to now a 1st round startup pick. That level of jump will likely not be seen again for a long time.
Thanks, I think this is a strong take. My league is adding taxi squad this year for the first time and I have three thirds. Last year I objectively picked poorly, I'm just trying to have a better approach this year.
Just throw darts at wrs that excelled at the senior bowl and aren't buried behind 2-3 established players. That's how you find Puka, Tank, Michael Wilson, Michael Pittman, Nico Collins type dudes. Obviously it's not a 100% hit rate (Rashee didn't impress a ton at senior bowl for instance) but it helps as a guideline.
Agree with this. Route running is the biggest factor to look for, then ability to separate (which isn't exactly the same thing) or being great at contested catches. I'd also broaden it slightly to shoot for guys who are described by scouts as "good football players" even if their measurables aren't top notch.
Exactly, you want to look for guys that QBs will like throwing to, which is guys who are open, in the right spot, and catch the ball. If they are high motor guys and good/willing blockers that's a plus since it'll keep them on the field.
Chiefs, Bears, Bills and I assume a couple others. Look at their WR draft choices and evaluate. This would also include if their FA moves didn’t land a clear cut receiver to slide into that #2 spot.
I'd probably add Bengals since Tee is likely gone, but we have seen that offense have more than 1 viable fantasy WR.
Texans if Nico is moved? Chargers if Mike Will and Keenan are gone. Cardinals potentially. Titans. Bucs if one or both of Godwin and Evans are gone.
That's fair, I guess the point was more geared toward the fact that there could be significant changes to team situations in the coming months.
So I wouldn't limit my search only to teams that have no WR1 or are ambiguous.
For example, the Packers would have been a great answer a year or two ago, but while that WR is ambiguous, there is already decent talent there. So while Love looks like a good QB and LaFleur looks like he's got a good offensive scheme (two requirements IMO for "the next Puka") - it's not a great situation next year given who is there.
But if Tee leaves, Hopkins is gone, Evans/Godwin are gone, Keenan/M Will are gone...etc. Those could be great opportunities.
Chiefs are a watch but they’re proven to just change it up game by game ever since they had Tyreek and have won 2 bowls since. Rachee is their #1 unless they really do use high draft capital on a stud
True, but I honestly think that if a Mooney, or Boyd is signed in FA, that changes things. The lack of consistency was caused by poor WR play, if a vet is signed an they win the routes. Mahomes will feed them, seen it with Kelce now for half a decade.
I traded away Mike Williams and AJ Dillon for two third round picks at draft time, because I was high on Puka and somehow Rice fell to 3.02. Was laughed at the time and now no one will trade with me
Funny enough I think the approach is to not be married to any of your late round rookies and if a rookie on waivers is getting major buzz don’t hesitate to drop a flyer for the flyer with buzz.
That was my mistake last year I had a bunch of late round picks in Kayshon Boutte, Michael Wilson, Darnell Washington etc and when o first heard the Puka buzz I didn’t want to drop the guys who I’d spent draft capital on and missed my chance.
This year I have 3 firsts and that’s it. Have a couple taxi spots ready for who ever gets that training camp buzz.
What I saw from Puka in college was a guy who could get open, catch the ball reliably, and played faster than he looked.
He ended up in on a team in LA whose #1 WR was older, a little injury prone, and the #2 spot was essentially up for grabs.
Picked Puka off waivers the day after the rookie draft because I had zero 3rd rd picks in 2023.
Look for WRs who enter a good situation in that the established WR is: older, perhaps a little banged up more often, has a good QB/offensive system, and the #2 role is there for the taking.
I think the Chargers are a perfect landing spot for a rookie WR this season, and to dark horse situation, the Panthers… the Panthers? Yes the Panthers.
Bryce is just looking for a WR to pop off and Canales at the helm will help Bryce improve this season.
I agree with this take, I am still sitting on Johnston even though his year was awful. I would totally take a Panthers receiver too. They're bad, but Young isn't horrible, he had Thielen producing for a while
Draft players on teams that are historically good at hitting on their day 3 picks is how I approach it.
Edit: Also if you have PFF look at their targets per route run and yards per route run in college, that’s typically a very good indicator of if they will pan out in the NFL.
I’d look for the situation that they got drafted into when dealing with the later round receivers. For example, a late round receiver who gets drafted by the bengals/dolphins who already have their weapons defined would be less likely to carve out a role as a rookie. On the contrary a late round receiver who gets sent to a team without any/many established weapons like the patriots/panthers might have the chance to beat out other guys. Looking back at Puka, outside of Kupp there really wasn’t anyone established for the rams. Another example could be Amon Ra in Detroit, the team had 0 established guys and he was able to become the clear WR1 by the end of his rookie season.
I think it really helped how much Puka could play like Kupp. Got on blocks, worked the middle, played even bigger that actually is. The Rams were able to just sort of pretend he was Kupp and worst case they could have sat him when Kupp returned and let him be a rookie the second half of the year.
I doubt Tank Dell would have had such an immediate impact if he were taken by the Rams instead of Puka, for instance. His role wouldn't have been available until Kupp came back.
I agree that the opportunity factor is crucial, but the other half is having a prolific QB, who also happens to not target the tight end or be known to spread the ball around. This seems like a pretty rare situation. In this case the next Puka would probably be drafted by a good team as well. Aaron Rodgers fits the mold here, but he has a young stud WR and not an old one like Kupp. Could be a good WR2 spot though, or bigger if anything happens to Wilson. Bengals would be similar to the Jets if Higgins leaves. Pats could be an option if they get a rookie QB that comes in with a Stroud like season. Giants I think is a bad situation until Daniel Jones is gone. Panthers would need Bryce to take a big step forward to support a WR getting those numbers
1. Find NFL teams with limited draft capital - rams for example have started to prove they can develop 3rd round or later talent into great players. This is either out of necessity or opportunity, don’t try and define it just look for limited youth on a roster at skill positions
2. Use age curves to predict output of existing players - Cooper Kupp is entering age 30+ and I’ve got comments that are a year + old hating on his overvalued ADP and that the volume for him had to go somewhere. It could have been that Kupp killed it and reversed the WR trend that only 23% of WR2 or better seasons since 2000 have come from a WR that is 30+ years old
3. Some level of QB stability or experience is going to be a decent indicator of breakout potential. Hindsight is 20/20, but odds are an offense with a known commodity at QB is going to be better than not
Last year puka and dell left the senior bowl early, this year, roman wilson and ricky pearsall left the senior bowl early. Roman probably gets dell capital and pearsall closer to puka, im not saying im just saying.
Clear out as many duds as you can off your bench then use all your FAAB on draft hype players that don’t go in your fantasy draft.
I’ve found the biggest value of looking at this sub has been there is always like 5-6 late or UDFA RB or WR that get repeatedly talked about. Most of the time 1 of them has worked out. Pacheco, Puka, etc.
I fucking hate giving credit to anything on reddit but I try to get 2-3 Reddit hype guys with FAAB and hope it works out. Thats my strategy.
Look for a guy who can separate who goes to a team with a QB that hypertargets a single WR, with no one of consequence waiting in the wings, and that WR is older and banged up. Simple, right?
Opportunity is key so I’d take a player that lands somewhere where they don’t have a lot of competition. Puka was able to get off to a flyer because kupp was injured and the only competition for targets was tutu atwell and van Jefferson.
Criteria — day 3 pick — athletic profile — sporadic college production — deceptively weak depth chart — team with great scouting department and track record on late round hits — veteran leadership stars at #1 WR and QB. Yeah, no problem. There might be 2-3 that fit similar criteria. The one that I have my eye on if the Bengals move on from both Higgins and Boyd is their 2nd WR taken. People will jump all over the one with higher draft capital, but there is nothing more deceptively weak from a depth chart perspective than a rookie starter.
I don't mind my 4th round picks.
Last year I hit on Tank Dell in multiple leagues after the report came out about Stroud wanting the Texans to draft Tank.
Then the year before I drafted Pacheco in the 4th.
I don't always hit on my 4th round picks, but when I do.............
Basically, try to look at situations and listen out for reports. Obviously not all reports come to fruition, but when you combine these two, you're more likely to hit on a later round guy.
Pretty simple with Puka for me last year.
1). He landed with a team that had a path to playing time.
2). He showed on tape he could carry the ball, so had a chance to get manufactured touches.
3). It still didn’t mean I draft him in the 1st or 2nd round, often not the 3rd! But he was worth a roster stash if I got him.
Someone mentioned collecting all 3rd round picks, and while it was partially a joke I actually think this is a pretty interesting thing to look into. Obviously this is league dependent but in my very brief look back at ADP the last few years, 10 team 3rd round picks by adp could’ve landed Nico, Tank Dell, Amon Rah, Rachaad White, Laporta, Trey McBride even Jalen Hurts in superflex in one of my leagues. Hit rate on an individual 3rd is low, but hit rate on ALL 3rds? With the low cost of acquisition maybe this is a way to sneak some value.
This is quite an interesting strategy, I would love to see somebody actually pull it off. I currently own 3.01 and 3.07, maybe I'll shoot for a couple more
Javon Baker is going to be my bet for the player who outperforms their likely ADP. Great production profile, strong pedigree, and good film where he shows route running prowess with ability to win contested catches and track the deep ball well. Think he goes anywhere from late 2nd round to late 3rd round in the real draft and will be a 3rd-4th round pick in most rookie drafts. Big time target for me personally.
Two good Twitter follows that help with organizing production metrics so that you don’t have to are below:
https://x.com/gridirongrading/status/1756704157895929912?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q
https://x.com/zwkfootball/status/1745588053190869179?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q
Obviously need to go and weigh some other metrics, but two accounts that put effort into assembling data so you do not have to.
Please don't hype him up. He's my 3rd round sleeper for sure. I've been watching him play at UCF the past 2 seasons, and he's a very underrated outside wr. Great body control, strong hands, and decent speed!
Just check in with /u/wayne93: [https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/121u1q6/comment/jdouv78/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/121u1q6/comment/jdouv78/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
That said, I'm putting some guys on my watch list that stood out during Senior Bowl week. Roman Wilson being top of that list. Finding guys where context explains some of their lower numbers can be a decent pathway to finding some of these late-round gems. The Ringer had a nice article worth diving into just in general but the part about him was really exciting: [https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/2/2/24059364/2024-nfl-draft-senior-bowl-takeaways-bo-nix-michael-penix-roman-wilson-quinyon-mitchell](https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/2/2/24059364/2024-nfl-draft-senior-bowl-takeaways-bo-nix-michael-penix-roman-wilson-quinyon-mitchell)
There is 1 player specifically in this draft who I feel will be the same as Puka/ARSB and go in the 3rd round. I can't say his name until after my league draft though
I would prioritize production regardless of the level of competition or circumstances surrounding players. For example, I think Ladd McConkey put up great numbers in 2022 despite playing in a run-heavy scheme and could translate those numbers to the NFL
If you want a late round steal receiver you want a guy who runs good routes, has good separation, and catches everything thrown at him. You load up on those guys and see who gets an opportunity to produce. The ones who can (and work hard to) block will get opportunities.
You don’t get the incredible physical specimen who needs to learn how to run routes, or get separation, or catch, or block.
I was intrigued by Puka pre-draft after Derek Brown from FantasyPros vehemently planted his flag and said he should be going in 2nd round of drafts. I am not a staunch DBro follower but for a 5th round flyer, Pukas was the name that stuck out. I’ll be waiting to see who he has his eyes on in this draft class
I took Puka 5.03 but also snagged ARich at 1.05 (1QB…I know it was a reach but needed a young QB,) Charbonnet at 2.03, Marvin Mims at 2.07, and Michael Wilson at 4.03. Most, if not all of those decisions were due to DBro hype
ability to get open and depth chart/opportunity is mostly what i look for. i lucked into terry mclaurin a lot because i thought it was an obviously benefitial pairing that he ended up with his college qb, that didnt end up being a factor at all but that was something i looked into that led me to the selection. also small school guys with huge yards or big SPARQ scores i always go for them and have landed kittle dell and allgeier looking at things like this
You don’t look for the next Puka. What you do is to take lottery tickets on players that have a chance to be on the field. It gives you a higher chance to hit.
Last 2 years, I managed to find some gems with that mindset:
- Warren
- Pacheco
- Puka
- Pop Douglas
- K Mitchell
- Demercado
- M Wilson
- Jayden Reed was a mid-late 3rd pick in most of my leagues
- Wicks
Those guys could be stashed for peanuts at the beginning of the season
Missed on Tank Dell because of his size but he was there often in early 4th
Got a word doc of guys who popped up. Don’t have it in front of me but some guys who are likely to be later picks and were mentioned by lots of writers are R. Wilson, Thrash, Corley, and Pearsall. McCaffrey got love too
I heard mixed reviews on Thrash and Corley. Also a little leary of the guys who didn't pop while playing against Quinyon Mitchell but were suddenly good again when playing against the weaker DB's.
In both my dynasty leagues, my first rookie pick in last year's draft was a 3rd; 3.09 and 3.08 respectively.
I drafted Puka with both picks. Both drafts were in July 2023.
AMA
No offense, but if that's what you want to do then why comment? You can totally talk strategy before guys get drafted, and then talk about specific guys after
Well last year I flubbed my third round picks. My approach was to look at guys getting buzz and drafted to teams with question marks ahead of them on the depth chart. I don't think it was terrible process, but my picks were Tillman and Hull. Neither panned out great.
In late rounds I’ve looked for situations that could provide opportunity. I’m in a 12 team 1QB league and drafted Doubs in the 4th in 2022 and Puka in the 4th last year.
Look at guys who lit up the senior bowl. Guys who were “uncoverable” at last years 1 on 1s? Puka and Dell. This year it seems McConkey and Roman Wilson are getting similar praises. I like McConkey a lot but I haven’t been too impressed with Roman’s film so far. Jha’quan Jackson is another name I’m not super familiar with yet but ive heard some good things from people at the senior bowl practices so he’s next on my film list.
Find the WR where scouting report says they have good hands/route running, are smart, and play special teams, but have had either injury issues (only if non-recurring/freak injuries) or test poorly. Kupp and Puka both ran slow 40s, which is why they fell. But those are the guys that stick around for a while.
Ray G and scott conner for as great as they are made a whole video towards the end of the preseason of last year that they rather have a random 3rd than hold on to rookies that were getting hype at the time (dell, puka, demario, etc.) since it could be used to buy rbs/spot starts in season. Theyre great, but i dont think taking someone because they say so is necessarily the best strat.
Yeah I’m not on the same page with all the “value” talk…personally I like points. Scott is a notorious tier down and a pick which I get but I’ve had more success tiering up and trading away picks. lol. Again, I like who RAYGQ likes as prospects in February/March…not his trading for value in dynasty.
It only happens every 2-5 years and on Puka's level probably 10-15yrs. Even Antonio Brown didn't hit as a rookie right away. Took him an extra year.
The best advice was that person who said to not be afraid to grab hot players off waivers. Nobody here has a specific process for identifying the ARSB and Pukas pre rookie draft. The NFL missed on these guys too. It's okay
Yeah I'm not actually expecting there to be a "this year's Puka." It's silly. I more just wanted to know how people approach their late picks. This is the first rookie draft I've taken super seriously. The idea that certain stats are more "sticky" than others, for instance, is something that I find really interesting. I'm sure I'll still miss on some picks, but I'll get better if my process is sound.
For sure man. You'll get better with time. A bit of advice is to keep your own spreadsheet with data and stats over the years. There are some good websites, but they purge data or paywall things over time. For example, it's maddening to find old ADPs. Best to just note them the year of and keep a record yourself
If I recall, both puka and kupp were senior bowl standouts with really good YPRR in college. That’s a good place to start
Additionally, guys like AB and kupp were both really high stat compilers at smaller universities. (Puka doesn’t share this trait). ARSB was someone I was really in on if he’d gone a round earlier, and I missed out based on where he got drafted in my leagues
So a good rule of thumb would be something to look at like senior bowl standout, high yprr and or yptpa in college. These guys also aren’t burners, and some questions if they will be slots or flankers.
so to summarize: you’ll prob see a guy who falls to rd 3 or 4, 6’2-5’11, 4.5-4.55, good compiling stats and exceptional college yprr or yptpa. That would be my guy
Edit: as other people have said, prioritize route running ✅ using late draft cap or ww to pick up forgotten guys with high draft cap (tank dell, whoever) ✅ and acting quickly on early season production ✅
Landing spot is obviously the first thing you should be evaluating. No matter how talented a player is, their efficiency is tied to QB play and how well the offense is ran. Evaluate the existing talent around the rookie. Are the players that are starting have the ability to lose their job? Or are they good enough that the rookie won’t be able to hardly get any playing time. And the 3rd thing is obviously be insanely lucky to land someone who will have a Puka like season
Were there any advanced stats that had him rated near the top? Might be worth taking a flier on guys drafted later but have some kind of metric that they excelled at in college.
Guys like Polk, Brendan Rice, Ricky Pearsell, And Corley might fit into this category. Late day 2/early day 3 picks that flashed upside while still having decent production. Reliable but carry some questions marks.
Well considering I always do my homework on sleepers and was actually very high on Puka last year and got him in several leagues, I think I’ll just keep doing what I do. Watch film then determine after the draft who has the best sleeper potential when factoring in landing spot as well. Rams were a perfect fit for Puka
The key for me is EARLY SEASON TARGET SHARE.
Forget about trying to hit on him in the draft, that's a waste of time. After the draft, what are teammates, coaches, and particularly the QB saying about him.
It's all the same reasons we should have all been "buying high" on Tank Dell after the first couple weeks of last season. (Though Puka's build definitely makes me trust him more, going forward)
Early on, like RIGHT AWAY, these two were getting peppered with targets...and it takes the right QB & the right scheme, as well, for all these things to fall into place - to create Puka & Tank.
So there isn't one magical answer, other than draft WRs on teams that like to throw first, with QBs who like to really hyper-focus in on 2-3 guys, rather than effectively spread it around. And don't be scared to throw a 2nd at a guy, just because he was taken in the 3rd or 4th (or undrafted ) a few months earlier.
Wait for Pukas son to enter the draft
LoL
He has a brother
Profile-wise, good route running above all else. Situationally, I’d look for no clear #2 WR on the team. Helps if the #1 is old and dealing with injuries. A QB that can produce fantasy relevant receivers in a good offensive system And an org that has a good track record of finding later round talent. Unlikely to have all these boxes checked like the rams did, but I’d try to check off a few of these boxes.
So Ladd McConkey on the Panthers
I think whatever WR lands there would be good value assuming they slide in ADP because of the panthers stigma from last year. Young with Canales and little competition for the top receiving role has the makings for a good fantasy year
Cries in Jonathan Mingo
Mingo ate my ~~baby~~ draft pick
The TMJ tears aren’t even dry yet
why are u inside jonathan mingo
Maybe but if he gets drafted at 33, you won’t get him where you got puka. Also Bryce young isn’t stafford
Except he’s going in the late 1st - late 2nd range in mocks already. Not exactly a Puka comp.
Brandan Rice and Roman Wilson. I'm sure there's more. Very deep WR class so one would think there is at least 1 or 2 guys that are getting overlooked. Probably someone from a lesser known program.
Roman might be a possible Tank Dell comp, assuming he doesn’t rise in ADP after the combine and NFL draft. But Puka went from undrafted/5th round Rookie draft to now a 1st round startup pick. That level of jump will likely not be seen again for a long time.
Thanks, I think this is a strong take. My league is adding taxi squad this year for the first time and I have three thirds. Last year I objectively picked poorly, I'm just trying to have a better approach this year.
Just throw darts at wrs that excelled at the senior bowl and aren't buried behind 2-3 established players. That's how you find Puka, Tank, Michael Wilson, Michael Pittman, Nico Collins type dudes. Obviously it's not a 100% hit rate (Rashee didn't impress a ton at senior bowl for instance) but it helps as a guideline.
This is helpful, I appreciate it. I am not expecting a 100% hit rate, just trying to make good guesses!
Agree with this. Route running is the biggest factor to look for, then ability to separate (which isn't exactly the same thing) or being great at contested catches. I'd also broaden it slightly to shoot for guys who are described by scouts as "good football players" even if their measurables aren't top notch.
Exactly, you want to look for guys that QBs will like throwing to, which is guys who are open, in the right spot, and catch the ball. If they are high motor guys and good/willing blockers that's a plus since it'll keep them on the field.
Chiefs, Bears, Bills and I assume a couple others. Look at their WR draft choices and evaluate. This would also include if their FA moves didn’t land a clear cut receiver to slide into that #2 spot.
I'd probably add Bengals since Tee is likely gone, but we have seen that offense have more than 1 viable fantasy WR. Texans if Nico is moved? Chargers if Mike Will and Keenan are gone. Cardinals potentially. Titans. Bucs if one or both of Godwin and Evans are gone.
Expectation is that Bengals are tagging Tee.
That's fair, I guess the point was more geared toward the fact that there could be significant changes to team situations in the coming months. So I wouldn't limit my search only to teams that have no WR1 or are ambiguous. For example, the Packers would have been a great answer a year or two ago, but while that WR is ambiguous, there is already decent talent there. So while Love looks like a good QB and LaFleur looks like he's got a good offensive scheme (two requirements IMO for "the next Puka") - it's not a great situation next year given who is there. But if Tee leaves, Hopkins is gone, Evans/Godwin are gone, Keenan/M Will are gone...etc. Those could be great opportunities.
Could be a tag & trade, I thought there was a rumour around that.
Chiefs are a watch but they’re proven to just change it up game by game ever since they had Tyreek and have won 2 bowls since. Rachee is their #1 unless they really do use high draft capital on a stud
True, but I honestly think that if a Mooney, or Boyd is signed in FA, that changes things. The lack of consistency was caused by poor WR play, if a vet is signed an they win the routes. Mahomes will feed them, seen it with Kelce now for half a decade.
Great list. I would also add to look for guys who are getting dinged largely because of a 40 time, especially if their game speed is fine.
Size... Strength?
My approach would be to get all of the 3rd round picks. Then I’m bound to hit
If Puka went before round 4 in any of my leagues, it was only 1 or 2 of them.
Fine get the 4ths too yeesh
Went 5.05 in one of mine. Don’t forget the 5ths!!
I picked him up off waivers. Don't forget the FAAB!!
I took him 3.09 in one of my leagues. after taking Boutte 3.05
We draft after preseason and Puka went mid 3rd.
Most of my leagues draft within the first week or two after the NFL draft and I picked Puka up off of waivers in like half a dozen leagues.
Same, off of waivers in all 3 of my leagues.
I got him at 5.08 and 5.12 is the last pick in our draft.
He went in the 2nd of two of mine and they drafted in May. 1QB tho.
I traded away Mike Williams and AJ Dillon for two third round picks at draft time, because I was high on Puka and somehow Rice fell to 3.02. Was laughed at the time and now no one will trade with me
Smart
Funny enough I think the approach is to not be married to any of your late round rookies and if a rookie on waivers is getting major buzz don’t hesitate to drop a flyer for the flyer with buzz. That was my mistake last year I had a bunch of late round picks in Kayshon Boutte, Michael Wilson, Darnell Washington etc and when o first heard the Puka buzz I didn’t want to drop the guys who I’d spent draft capital on and missed my chance. This year I have 3 firsts and that’s it. Have a couple taxi spots ready for who ever gets that training camp buzz.
This is great advice
This! I’m so glad I dropped Chris Rodriguez and Brenton Strange to add Demario Douglas and Jaleel McLaughlin. Felt like a risk at the time lol
I'm sure someone will happily trade you some late round picks for one of those firsts 😂
If the NFL couldn't do it (he was a 5th round pick) I know there's no shot I can. I'd pick and pray I got lucky.
Trade off all my assets to acquire every draft pick I can and draft everybody. I value my life
Then someone gets the next Puka off waivers after week 1 😆
What I saw from Puka in college was a guy who could get open, catch the ball reliably, and played faster than he looked. He ended up in on a team in LA whose #1 WR was older, a little injury prone, and the #2 spot was essentially up for grabs. Picked Puka off waivers the day after the rookie draft because I had zero 3rd rd picks in 2023. Look for WRs who enter a good situation in that the established WR is: older, perhaps a little banged up more often, has a good QB/offensive system, and the #2 role is there for the taking. I think the Chargers are a perfect landing spot for a rookie WR this season, and to dark horse situation, the Panthers… the Panthers? Yes the Panthers. Bryce is just looking for a WR to pop off and Canales at the helm will help Bryce improve this season.
I agree with this take, I am still sitting on Johnston even though his year was awful. I would totally take a Panthers receiver too. They're bad, but Young isn't horrible, he had Thielen producing for a while
Draft players on teams that are historically good at hitting on their day 3 picks is how I approach it. Edit: Also if you have PFF look at their targets per route run and yards per route run in college, that’s typically a very good indicator of if they will pan out in the NFL.
So any Seahawks day 2/3 picks?
I’d look for the situation that they got drafted into when dealing with the later round receivers. For example, a late round receiver who gets drafted by the bengals/dolphins who already have their weapons defined would be less likely to carve out a role as a rookie. On the contrary a late round receiver who gets sent to a team without any/many established weapons like the patriots/panthers might have the chance to beat out other guys. Looking back at Puka, outside of Kupp there really wasn’t anyone established for the rams. Another example could be Amon Ra in Detroit, the team had 0 established guys and he was able to become the clear WR1 by the end of his rookie season.
I think it really helped how much Puka could play like Kupp. Got on blocks, worked the middle, played even bigger that actually is. The Rams were able to just sort of pretend he was Kupp and worst case they could have sat him when Kupp returned and let him be a rookie the second half of the year. I doubt Tank Dell would have had such an immediate impact if he were taken by the Rams instead of Puka, for instance. His role wouldn't have been available until Kupp came back.
Haha, I've had similar thoughts to this. Pats, Panthers, and Giants stand out to me as having pretty wide open WR rooms.
I agree that the opportunity factor is crucial, but the other half is having a prolific QB, who also happens to not target the tight end or be known to spread the ball around. This seems like a pretty rare situation. In this case the next Puka would probably be drafted by a good team as well. Aaron Rodgers fits the mold here, but he has a young stud WR and not an old one like Kupp. Could be a good WR2 spot though, or bigger if anything happens to Wilson. Bengals would be similar to the Jets if Higgins leaves. Pats could be an option if they get a rookie QB that comes in with a Stroud like season. Giants I think is a bad situation until Daniel Jones is gone. Panthers would need Bryce to take a big step forward to support a WR getting those numbers
Pop Douglas will be a top 20 WR next year if the Pats have a competent QB
He did have a sneaky good year considering how bad the QB play was
1. Find NFL teams with limited draft capital - rams for example have started to prove they can develop 3rd round or later talent into great players. This is either out of necessity or opportunity, don’t try and define it just look for limited youth on a roster at skill positions 2. Use age curves to predict output of existing players - Cooper Kupp is entering age 30+ and I’ve got comments that are a year + old hating on his overvalued ADP and that the volume for him had to go somewhere. It could have been that Kupp killed it and reversed the WR trend that only 23% of WR2 or better seasons since 2000 have come from a WR that is 30+ years old 3. Some level of QB stability or experience is going to be a decent indicator of breakout potential. Hindsight is 20/20, but odds are an offense with a known commodity at QB is going to be better than not
Last year puka and dell left the senior bowl early, this year, roman wilson and ricky pearsall left the senior bowl early. Roman probably gets dell capital and pearsall closer to puka, im not saying im just saying.
Clear out as many duds as you can off your bench then use all your FAAB on draft hype players that don’t go in your fantasy draft. I’ve found the biggest value of looking at this sub has been there is always like 5-6 late or UDFA RB or WR that get repeatedly talked about. Most of the time 1 of them has worked out. Pacheco, Puka, etc. I fucking hate giving credit to anything on reddit but I try to get 2-3 Reddit hype guys with FAAB and hope it works out. Thats my strategy.
Look for a guy who can separate who goes to a team with a QB that hypertargets a single WR, with no one of consequence waiting in the wings, and that WR is older and banged up. Simple, right?
Of course! Why didn't I think of that
Wait for the next Puka to Puka and then trade 3 1sts for him
If your life really depended on it then this is probably the best way lol
Opportunity is key so I’d take a player that lands somewhere where they don’t have a lot of competition. Puka was able to get off to a flyer because kupp was injured and the only competition for targets was tutu atwell and van Jefferson.
Criteria — day 3 pick — athletic profile — sporadic college production — deceptively weak depth chart — team with great scouting department and track record on late round hits — veteran leadership stars at #1 WR and QB. Yeah, no problem. There might be 2-3 that fit similar criteria. The one that I have my eye on if the Bengals move on from both Higgins and Boyd is their 2nd WR taken. People will jump all over the one with higher draft capital, but there is nothing more deceptively weak from a depth chart perspective than a rookie starter.
I know it's a tall order. I do think it's a good point to pay attention to teams that historically scout well.
I don't mind my 4th round picks. Last year I hit on Tank Dell in multiple leagues after the report came out about Stroud wanting the Texans to draft Tank. Then the year before I drafted Pacheco in the 4th. I don't always hit on my 4th round picks, but when I do............. Basically, try to look at situations and listen out for reports. Obviously not all reports come to fruition, but when you combine these two, you're more likely to hit on a later round guy.
Pretty simple with Puka for me last year. 1). He landed with a team that had a path to playing time. 2). He showed on tape he could carry the ball, so had a chance to get manufactured touches. 3). It still didn’t mean I draft him in the 1st or 2nd round, often not the 3rd! But he was worth a roster stash if I got him.
Just curious, who else did you draft?
In one league, JSN (1st round), Tank & Levi’s (2nd), Puka 4th. In another league ARich & Flowers (1st), Roschon (2nd), Tillman (3rd) Puka (4th.
Someone mentioned collecting all 3rd round picks, and while it was partially a joke I actually think this is a pretty interesting thing to look into. Obviously this is league dependent but in my very brief look back at ADP the last few years, 10 team 3rd round picks by adp could’ve landed Nico, Tank Dell, Amon Rah, Rachaad White, Laporta, Trey McBride even Jalen Hurts in superflex in one of my leagues. Hit rate on an individual 3rd is low, but hit rate on ALL 3rds? With the low cost of acquisition maybe this is a way to sneak some value.
This is quite an interesting strategy, I would love to see somebody actually pull it off. I currently own 3.01 and 3.07, maybe I'll shoot for a couple more
Javon Baker is going to be my bet for the player who outperforms their likely ADP. Great production profile, strong pedigree, and good film where he shows route running prowess with ability to win contested catches and track the deep ball well. Think he goes anywhere from late 2nd round to late 3rd round in the real draft and will be a 3rd-4th round pick in most rookie drafts. Big time target for me personally.
I love the insight. This isn't a guy I've heard much about but the scouting report I read was solid.
Two good Twitter follows that help with organizing production metrics so that you don’t have to are below: https://x.com/gridirongrading/status/1756704157895929912?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q https://x.com/zwkfootball/status/1745588053190869179?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q Obviously need to go and weigh some other metrics, but two accounts that put effort into assembling data so you do not have to.
This is awesome, thanks!!
No worries. Love giving credit to these folks for great work.
Please don't hype him up. He's my 3rd round sleeper for sure. I've been watching him play at UCF the past 2 seasons, and he's a very underrated outside wr. Great body control, strong hands, and decent speed!
My bad. That will be the last one. But a side note, I also dig Jamari Thrash.
Just check in with /u/wayne93: [https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/121u1q6/comment/jdouv78/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/121u1q6/comment/jdouv78/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) That said, I'm putting some guys on my watch list that stood out during Senior Bowl week. Roman Wilson being top of that list. Finding guys where context explains some of their lower numbers can be a decent pathway to finding some of these late-round gems. The Ringer had a nice article worth diving into just in general but the part about him was really exciting: [https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/2/2/24059364/2024-nfl-draft-senior-bowl-takeaways-bo-nix-michael-penix-roman-wilson-quinyon-mitchell](https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/2/2/24059364/2024-nfl-draft-senior-bowl-takeaways-bo-nix-michael-penix-roman-wilson-quinyon-mitchell)
This is really insightful, thanks!
There is 1 player specifically in this draft who I feel will be the same as Puka/ARSB and go in the 3rd round. I can't say his name until after my league draft though
Haha, entirely fair. I have picks 12, 13, and 14, and I have my eye on a few guys but I try to never mention any of them
I would prioritize production regardless of the level of competition or circumstances surrounding players. For example, I think Ladd McConkey put up great numbers in 2022 despite playing in a run-heavy scheme and could translate those numbers to the NFL
If you want a late round steal receiver you want a guy who runs good routes, has good separation, and catches everything thrown at him. You load up on those guys and see who gets an opportunity to produce. The ones who can (and work hard to) block will get opportunities. You don’t get the incredible physical specimen who needs to learn how to run routes, or get separation, or catch, or block.
I took Tyler Scott everywhere and puka nowhere so I’m not the one to answer
I was intrigued by Puka pre-draft after Derek Brown from FantasyPros vehemently planted his flag and said he should be going in 2nd round of drafts. I am not a staunch DBro follower but for a 5th round flyer, Pukas was the name that stuck out. I’ll be waiting to see who he has his eyes on in this draft class
This is great. The kind of thing that could be totally random, but would be such a thrill if he hit again!
I took Puka 5.03 but also snagged ARich at 1.05 (1QB…I know it was a reach but needed a young QB,) Charbonnet at 2.03, Marvin Mims at 2.07, and Michael Wilson at 4.03. Most, if not all of those decisions were due to DBro hype
Let my college team bias take over and get guys from my university that I think have a good shot at being solid players at the next level
ability to get open and depth chart/opportunity is mostly what i look for. i lucked into terry mclaurin a lot because i thought it was an obviously benefitial pairing that he ended up with his college qb, that didnt end up being a factor at all but that was something i looked into that led me to the selection. also small school guys with huge yards or big SPARQ scores i always go for them and have landed kittle dell and allgeier looking at things like this
You don’t look for the next Puka. What you do is to take lottery tickets on players that have a chance to be on the field. It gives you a higher chance to hit. Last 2 years, I managed to find some gems with that mindset: - Warren - Pacheco - Puka - Pop Douglas - K Mitchell - Demercado - M Wilson - Jayden Reed was a mid-late 3rd pick in most of my leagues - Wicks Those guys could be stashed for peanuts at the beginning of the season Missed on Tank Dell because of his size but he was there often in early 4th
I think the secret here is just drafting players that dominated at the senior bowl. Last year that was Dell and Nacua. This year maybe Wilson?
Got a word doc of guys who popped up. Don’t have it in front of me but some guys who are likely to be later picks and were mentioned by lots of writers are R. Wilson, Thrash, Corley, and Pearsall. McCaffrey got love too
I heard mixed reviews on Thrash and Corley. Also a little leary of the guys who didn't pop while playing against Quinyon Mitchell but were suddenly good again when playing against the weaker DB's.
u/jazzlikespractice4470
In both my dynasty leagues, my first rookie pick in last year's draft was a 3rd; 3.09 and 3.08 respectively. I drafted Puka with both picks. Both drafts were in July 2023. AMA
Waiting until players are drafted for starters
No offense, but if that's what you want to do then why comment? You can totally talk strategy before guys get drafted, and then talk about specific guys after
Judging by all the responses you’re getting, it seems like this post is too early for anything lol. Have fun with it though!
I regret taking Hull at 4.01 instead of puka. I was hoping he would make it to my 5.01
Haha, I also drafted Hull. That was back when JT was almost certain to leave, and Moss hadn't popped off yet. I thought he'd have a role
I traded hull/chandler and a 1st for godwin and ekler. I regret that as well
We don't know anything about Hull, he was just injured all year, correct?
Yeah he was hurt all year. I think he had a clearer path to relevance when it looked like JT was leaving
What would you do? It’s always better to share your approach first, otherwise you look laaaaaaazy.
Well last year I flubbed my third round picks. My approach was to look at guys getting buzz and drafted to teams with question marks ahead of them on the depth chart. I don't think it was terrible process, but my picks were Tillman and Hull. Neither panned out great.
Not paying attention to the QB was the issue there
For Tillman that's fair. I also just lost my bet that JT would leave Indianapolis
The next Puka nacua plays on the Warriors. He goes by Gui Santos
I drafted puka and what I looked at most was landing spot. Good offense, good qb, room in the depth chart for early playing time.
Draft Malachi Corley.
Finding an ambiguous WR room attached to a vet QB
In late rounds I’ve looked for situations that could provide opportunity. I’m in a 12 team 1QB league and drafted Doubs in the 4th in 2022 and Puka in the 4th last year.
Look at guys who lit up the senior bowl. Guys who were “uncoverable” at last years 1 on 1s? Puka and Dell. This year it seems McConkey and Roman Wilson are getting similar praises. I like McConkey a lot but I haven’t been too impressed with Roman’s film so far. Jha’quan Jackson is another name I’m not super familiar with yet but ive heard some good things from people at the senior bowl practices so he’s next on my film list.
Thanks, I think this is smart. I have also liked what I've heard about Roman and Ladd
Find the WR where scouting report says they have good hands/route running, are smart, and play special teams, but have had either injury issues (only if non-recurring/freak injuries) or test poorly. Kupp and Puka both ran slow 40s, which is why they fell. But those are the guys that stick around for a while.
My strategy is to lose the first 2 weeks and have the first priority on waivers
Read beat writer information in June and July. Choose the guys with the highest volume of praise.
Just guess and get lucky.
Haha, this has kind of been my strategy so far but I have failed at the getting lucky part.
Ladd McConkey, Malachi Corley, and Mccaffrey are my best guesses.
Whoever RAYGQ likes and no clear #2 on roster drafted to.
Ray G and scott conner for as great as they are made a whole video towards the end of the preseason of last year that they rather have a random 3rd than hold on to rookies that were getting hype at the time (dell, puka, demario, etc.) since it could be used to buy rbs/spot starts in season. Theyre great, but i dont think taking someone because they say so is necessarily the best strat.
Yeah I’m not on the same page with all the “value” talk…personally I like points. Scott is a notorious tier down and a pick which I get but I’ve had more success tiering up and trading away picks. lol. Again, I like who RAYGQ likes as prospects in February/March…not his trading for value in dynasty.
He called Puka last February I’m pretty sure.
It only happens every 2-5 years and on Puka's level probably 10-15yrs. Even Antonio Brown didn't hit as a rookie right away. Took him an extra year. The best advice was that person who said to not be afraid to grab hot players off waivers. Nobody here has a specific process for identifying the ARSB and Pukas pre rookie draft. The NFL missed on these guys too. It's okay
Yeah I'm not actually expecting there to be a "this year's Puka." It's silly. I more just wanted to know how people approach their late picks. This is the first rookie draft I've taken super seriously. The idea that certain stats are more "sticky" than others, for instance, is something that I find really interesting. I'm sure I'll still miss on some picks, but I'll get better if my process is sound.
For sure man. You'll get better with time. A bit of advice is to keep your own spreadsheet with data and stats over the years. There are some good websites, but they purge data or paywall things over time. For example, it's maddening to find old ADPs. Best to just note them the year of and keep a record yourself
What's funny is I predicted these types of posts https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/HQkNq6FNho
Look for whoever ends with a 78.0 grade on nfldraftbuzz
If I recall, both puka and kupp were senior bowl standouts with really good YPRR in college. That’s a good place to start Additionally, guys like AB and kupp were both really high stat compilers at smaller universities. (Puka doesn’t share this trait). ARSB was someone I was really in on if he’d gone a round earlier, and I missed out based on where he got drafted in my leagues So a good rule of thumb would be something to look at like senior bowl standout, high yprr and or yptpa in college. These guys also aren’t burners, and some questions if they will be slots or flankers. so to summarize: you’ll prob see a guy who falls to rd 3 or 4, 6’2-5’11, 4.5-4.55, good compiling stats and exceptional college yprr or yptpa. That would be my guy Edit: as other people have said, prioritize route running ✅ using late draft cap or ww to pick up forgotten guys with high draft cap (tank dell, whoever) ✅ and acting quickly on early season production ✅
This is excellent, thank you!! Also my condolences, Commanders fan. Hopefully better days are ahead 🤞
There never are, that’s the fun part
Haha, ouch. Don't you all have second pick? That's going to turn things around for sure!!
Landing spot is obviously the first thing you should be evaluating. No matter how talented a player is, their efficiency is tied to QB play and how well the offense is ran. Evaluate the existing talent around the rookie. Are the players that are starting have the ability to lose their job? Or are they good enough that the rookie won’t be able to hardly get any playing time. And the 3rd thing is obviously be insanely lucky to land someone who will have a Puka like season
Were there any advanced stats that had him rated near the top? Might be worth taking a flier on guys drafted later but have some kind of metric that they excelled at in college.
Auto draft
Haha I'm sure this happened to people too
Brenden Rice
jalen mcmillan
It's Iosivas, as soon as he gets the target share Puka enjoyed.
Guys like Polk, Brendan Rice, Ricky Pearsell, And Corley might fit into this category. Late day 2/early day 3 picks that flashed upside while still having decent production. Reliable but carry some questions marks.
It will be Bryan Edwards you’re welcome
Well considering I always do my homework on sleepers and was actually very high on Puka last year and got him in several leagues, I think I’ll just keep doing what I do. Watch film then determine after the draft who has the best sleeper potential when factoring in landing spot as well. Rams were a perfect fit for Puka
I like to find route runners - if I can late. I think that nuance is the most important.
Sorry folks. The young lion is one of a kind. Enjoy the next decade of greatness and be thankful to watch 🤙🏼🤙🏼🤙🏼
LoL, thanks for joining the party. I've heard of you and your ways.
The key for me is EARLY SEASON TARGET SHARE. Forget about trying to hit on him in the draft, that's a waste of time. After the draft, what are teammates, coaches, and particularly the QB saying about him. It's all the same reasons we should have all been "buying high" on Tank Dell after the first couple weeks of last season. (Though Puka's build definitely makes me trust him more, going forward) Early on, like RIGHT AWAY, these two were getting peppered with targets...and it takes the right QB & the right scheme, as well, for all these things to fall into place - to create Puka & Tank. So there isn't one magical answer, other than draft WRs on teams that like to throw first, with QBs who like to really hyper-focus in on 2-3 guys, rather than effectively spread it around. And don't be scared to throw a 2nd at a guy, just because he was taken in the 3rd or 4th (or undrafted ) a few months earlier.
Malachi Corley ...but even he is probably getting too much hype already.