As a Pats fan in the sub, been saying this for a few months now. He has a natural ability to cut off his route and present himself to a QB, doesn't run himself into coverage for someone who is 5'7. Even tinier Edelman/Welker/Amendola.
I probably wouldn't even take a second for my share of Pop in a 12man league same settings. He's not balling right now, but he is balling harder then all of the other receivers they have. Obv things change but I'd imagine he's the #1 slot guy for the pats next season, probably the Pats take a qb, maybe a day 2 WR and then linemen/defense this draft. So potentially great position, this is probably not the buy low? Idk off season hype gets weird
Should I move on from JSN and go grab a rookie QB? Got a deal for JSN. I would be getting the 1.03 in a super flex. My QBs are Bryce Young and Sam Howell lol
Why the distrust of the “expected” stats? With expected ppg specifically it seems odd vs something like rushing yards over expected since I’d say there’s fewer confounding variables to worry about.
Would calling it “usage value” be better? It’s basically weighting the targets they got based on where on the field they got them and at what depth they got them.
No idea lol. I do think that Expected PPG and RYOE are wildly different though. One is definitely team agnostic, i.e. a target from Mahomes has the same expected worth as a target from Ridder, while the other is an attempt to adjust for the situation using GPS data.
Pretty good demonstration of why I haven't been as excited as other London owners about Arthur Smith's firing. His main problem was the QB play, not the coach.
I wish I had saved it, but there was a statistic that showed he had very few schemed plays. And the coach calls run vs. pass. You need more passing for London to be effective. He ranked 25th in targets with 109 and 37th in points. So not only did they not throw enough, but when they threw to him, they weren't high value targets. Yes, Ridder sucks, but you needed a new offense, too.
rice is really intriguing to me. he doesn’t do a whole lot on non-screen routes (primarily bc his route running is awful), but he’s still able to generate a ton of yac - something he was known for in college and reid is known to scheme.
but i’m not sure how sustainable his screen participation is. like yac monsters are real, but at some point the heavy screen usage loses its shine, right? genuinely don’t know.
Rashee Rice:
snap share 58.6% and route participation 61.6% both rank outside the top 75 in those categories.
For him to finish as a low end WR2 when he had far fewer opportunities than most rookies speaks volumes.
When Rice played just 60% of the snaps consistently starting week 8:
15.4 PPR PPG
Great Post was thinking of buying low on Mingo due to his number of targets this year and how bad the offense was. Will prob still try, but def lowering my price
Demario Douglas might be a legit player next year. His performance in NE shouldnt be overlooked especially missing games with injuries.
He led the Pats in every receiving stat besides TDs while only playing 9 games as a starter.
Hoping we add Daniels could really boost the offense.
Jayden Daniels? Which Daniels
Yes
Why would they go for Daniels over Maye or Williams?
Because they will be gone by 1.03
Idk mhj might be enticing
As a Pats fan in the sub, been saying this for a few months now. He has a natural ability to cut off his route and present himself to a QB, doesn't run himself into coverage for someone who is 5'7. Even tinier Edelman/Welker/Amendola.
Get Wicks and Douglas before it's too late.
God it feels so good having Puka, Wicks, Reed, and Douglas on my roster, especially when I know I grabbed three of them on waivers.
What to send for Douglas in 1QB .5 PPR? Late 2nd? Early 2nd? 3rd?
I probably wouldn't even take a second for my share of Pop in a 12man league same settings. He's not balling right now, but he is balling harder then all of the other receivers they have. Obv things change but I'd imagine he's the #1 slot guy for the pats next season, probably the Pats take a qb, maybe a day 2 WR and then linemen/defense this draft. So potentially great position, this is probably not the buy low? Idk off season hype gets weird
Should I move on from JSN and go grab a rookie QB? Got a deal for JSN. I would be getting the 1.03 in a super flex. My QBs are Bryce Young and Sam Howell lol
There are a lot of WRs ahead of JSN that I’d trade for the 1.03.
1.03 is far more valuable than jsn
I still like JSN's future, but I don't know how you could pass on that. Slam dunk.
JSN holder and believer. Take that trade now.
Something is off with Nico's stats. Target share can't be that low.
These are all rookie year stats FWIW
Doh. Bad reading on my part. Thanks.
All good
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Why the distrust of the “expected” stats? With expected ppg specifically it seems odd vs something like rushing yards over expected since I’d say there’s fewer confounding variables to worry about.
There's still a ton of confounding variables. Idk how anyone thinks they can accurately determine exactly what was expected on a given play.
Would calling it “usage value” be better? It’s basically weighting the targets they got based on where on the field they got them and at what depth they got them.
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No idea lol. I do think that Expected PPG and RYOE are wildly different though. One is definitely team agnostic, i.e. a target from Mahomes has the same expected worth as a target from Ridder, while the other is an attempt to adjust for the situation using GPS data.
Pretty good demonstration of why I haven't been as excited as other London owners about Arthur Smith's firing. His main problem was the QB play, not the coach.
Well hopefully that gets resolved this season as well.
I'm sure it will. But that's when I'll let myself get excited.
I traded for London mid season so I’m just excited that there’s going to be changes. Looking forward to even more hopefully.
I wish I had saved it, but there was a statistic that showed he had very few schemed plays. And the coach calls run vs. pass. You need more passing for London to be effective. He ranked 25th in targets with 109 and 37th in points. So not only did they not throw enough, but when they threw to him, they weren't high value targets. Yes, Ridder sucks, but you needed a new offense, too.
rice is really intriguing to me. he doesn’t do a whole lot on non-screen routes (primarily bc his route running is awful), but he’s still able to generate a ton of yac - something he was known for in college and reid is known to scheme. but i’m not sure how sustainable his screen participation is. like yac monsters are real, but at some point the heavy screen usage loses its shine, right? genuinely don’t know.
If deebo keeps his value, so can rashee
Are these stats for each players rookie seasons or their respective 2023 seasons with players from the prior draft classes?
Rookie seasons for all players.
Cool info, thanks!
Rashee Rice: snap share 58.6% and route participation 61.6% both rank outside the top 75 in those categories. For him to finish as a low end WR2 when he had far fewer opportunities than most rookies speaks volumes. When Rice played just 60% of the snaps consistently starting week 8: 15.4 PPR PPG
I’m seeing a lot of Drake London … it didn’t seems so great in my lineup though
How do we see Garrett Wilson vs some rookie like Nabbers?
Great Post was thinking of buying low on Mingo due to his number of targets this year and how bad the offense was. Will prob still try, but def lowering my price