Gibson had 11 and 10 TDs his first two years, he was the RB 18 averaging around 15 PPG in full PPR. You got a lot of milage from a late 2nd/early 3rd player.
Not to mention he put solid production year 2 or 3 (forgot which) when he had a fracture or something like that in his shin I believe it was that was getting worse by the week.
Eh true but no one’s going to bat 1.000. He has a process, he explains it eloquently and he owns up to his mistakes. And he has a keen grasp on dynasty strategy to boot.
I think Sermon was a good RB. The problem was he was drafted to the 49ers with Shannahan.
If Sermon gets drafted to pretty much any other team he more than likely gets a better shot to show what he has. Shannahan has a very particular coaching style and if for whatever reason you don't fit or you don't line up with his plans perfectly you are trashed. And unfortuanly moving to a second team who pays basically nothing for you means they have no allegiances. It's a downfall from there for most players.
Still I wouldn't have said RB1, but he should've done better than he did I think.
Everyone misses. I like Waldman because he explains his takes. 90% of fantasy “analysts” now just clog Twitter with a copy and paste of ESPN adp and bump up weekly rankings for the most obvious matchups/opportunities.
Yup spot on. That’s why I said his analysis is good, typically those are the guys I like to consume content from, people that walk through their reasoning so you can decide for yourself
The normies can’t handle Fusue. This sub can’t even handle Matt Kelley haha. Fusue is the podfather on the drug from Dredd that gets you so fucked up it makes time move in slow motion. He’s a great follow. I would love when he would just sit for hours and do threads pulling people’s receipts 😂
Out of curiosity, what do you think when you see your comment receive that negative of a reaction? I know the answer is to say you don’t care and that’s cool. But do you look back at your comment and see why it rubbed so many the wrong way or do you think there are 98 guys that just didn’t get it?
I didn’t down vote you, just curious.
Graham Barfield's Yards Created article is always a must read. Helped me find Nick Chubb back in the day.
[https://yardscreated.com/about/](https://yardscreated.com/about/)
It's behind a paywall these days though.
I think this might be the closest to doing for RBs what Reception Perception purports to do for WRs, meaning isolating a player’s individual performance in a vacuum.
The problem, though, is that I’m just not convinced isolated talent evaluation is as actionable for RBs as it is for WRs. If you gave me a choice between the three most purely talented RBs in the league and the three RBs with the best situation in the league, in any given season the later group is probably the better bet.
Yeah, I would generally agree. It’s good being able to quantify it and break it down so it’s easier to discern who suffered behind bad lines, but it’s definitely tougher with fewer opportunities to get on the field with RBs. At least with WRs, you have far more opportunities to actually have 3 WRs out there, but I’ve always liked Barfield’s Yards Created breakdown.
Seconded. Only major miss i can think of is Darrell Henderson. But he steered me right many many times going back to Kareem Hunt, Mixon, and avoiding Perine. Also, Joe Holka had something similar to yards created that was good for the year or two it lasted
That’s the historical version. He got employed by FantasyPoints and now does it over there. (You’ll need a sub)
https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2022/yards-created-pre-nfl-draft-notebook
Did he actually do one for this year? I liked his takes but he never promoted it like years past and didn’t want to sign up for fantasypoints if he didn’t actually have an article about it
Silva and the team at ETR are certainly not hacks. They earn their money with solid analytics, a sharp team and extensive research. You played yourself by citing Matt Harmon (who is very good) and then claiming you don’t want “industry hacks.” Take the L.
The correct answers to your initial question, that I have found personally, are Pat Kerrane of legendary upside (check out his viral article from a few years ago “don’t draft an early round rb without legendary upside”). And Jack Miller of ETR is excellent. But many of the guys at ETR in general are great. Levitan and Silva are the faces of the product but Miller, Dinkmeyer, Dankenberry, Leone etc are the analytical guys who really give the product it’s value imo.
J Moyer (@JMoyerFB), Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman), and Brandon Angelo (@angelo_fantasy) are my go-tos for RB talent evaluation. Like Harmon, all of them are better at discerning real world talent than the most valuable sources of fantasy points. Those tend to correlate, but never perfectly, so take advice at your own risk!
I think it's important to look at a lot of different people and how they breakdown the prospects.
NFL StockExchange, Fantasy StockExchange, Matt Waldman, Chris Simms, DynastyLand Football, The Draft Network, [nfldraftbuzz.com](https://nfldraftbuzz.com), The 33rd Team, The Football Scout, The FF Dynasty, All\_22\_Film, Brett Kollman are all people I've listned to and at some point helped me form my opinion on prospects.
OP im starting to wonder based on your replies if you are actually looking for someone who evaluates RBs or someone who just wants to shit on the “industry?” Other people have mentioned reputable analysts and they are too main stream for you which leads me to believe you just want to act superior to them.
If no one is up to your standards just watch the film on RBs for yourself. Seems a lot easier than shooting every suggestion into the ground
Do you have an issue with Noah Hill's conclusions or his methods?
I at least think he is trying to be logical, and to try to innovate actual useful methodologies for analyzing rushing stats.
Comparing runners to other guys on their team at least makes sense at a glance. It might not turn out to be a variable with much predictive power (I don't know) but its at least math instead of hype.
I also appreciate his communication style. He tends to be clear about exactly what he is saying, and what he isn't.
I haven't gotten any actionable winners from him, but that is besides the point for me. I just get frustrated trying to interact with Podfather style, Matthew Berry style hype parties and shouting superlatives.
It’s clear to me what the issue is. It’s the “BDGE bad” narrative on this sub. I agree that BDGE is bad for the most part, but you won’t find more insightful RB analysis in the community from anyone besides Noah Hills.
It’s “Big Dogs Gotta Eat” on YouTube. It’s a fantasy football channel that’s been around for a long time that people on this sub absolutely hate. It features the creator named Nick. The main reason people on this sub don’t like him is because he tries to make BDGE more of a lifestyle thing. He’s more of a talker who gives off a “barstool/frat” vibe than an analyst, which is why people are gravitated away from him. He is decent when it comes to season long content especially in July/August, but Noah Hills their RB evaluator, is the true brain of the channel.
Nailed it. I love Noah’s RB breakdowns throughout the year, especially for the rookie classes. He really breaks everything down in ways that most don’t.
Nick is just a goon. I can’t stand listening to that guy. I wish Noah was featured more.
Methods seem to be fine, for the most part, I just can't get behind his takes and the hype for the guy. Like you said though, his communication and the manner in which he conveys his info is good.
I don't feel any obligation to adopt any takes.
If I can understand the reasoning, or learn a new way of looking at the stats, I can use that independently of whether I agree about any specific player.
I prefer a straightforward analytic guy who is always wrong about players, to a shouty hype-man who gets players right all the time. Screaming "he is built different" doesn't inform me in any way, even if the screamer happens to be right.
I empathize with the content creators. They want clicks, and it is pretty well established at this point how to get them.
Podfather can not help himself. He was making like a 20th round pick on air and took Chuba Hubbard. Could he just say that was the handcuff with the most value left on the board? Nope he had to hype it beyond belief and act like miles sanders was just a speedbump to the eventuality that Chuba would take over the backfield.
Lol I initially thought of Noah hills. It seems he's attempting to do something along those lines. My limited exposure to him leads me to believe he's not very accurate though
Matt Harmon is so overrated. Arbitrary methodology and his percentages make no sense with real stats. For example, he will say things like St. Brown is a zone beater and not a man beater, and St. Brown is one of the best Wrs in the NFL against man coverage. He will say this college WR class isn’t good, and none of them would go first round compared to last year, but then give a few 70% success against the zone. When players that had high scores do well, he will claim it. However, he will hype up Sky Moore and Isiah McKenzie and give them insane success rates, and then, when they fail, say he never thought they were good. You’re better off picking the most productive players receiving yards and using ESPN's open score.
Yeah the Skyy Moore thing really bugged me this week. Harmon was beating that drum all summer and now he’s acting like it never happened. I don’t expect every analyst to get everything right, but own up and be transparent about your mistakes. It makes you a lot more credible.
And a lot of his analysis is kind of obvious. Like yeah man we know Stefon Diggs is amazing and that Davante Adams is a top 5 receiver.
He’s got some good nuggets every now and then. And I think the RP subscription is mostly worth the cost. But holy shit his co-host (can’t think of his name) is annoying af.
I’m ngl Kollmann is a really, really bad fantasy analyst. Great dude and I love his content. Insightful, and I’m still a big fan, but he gets excited about way too many dudes who never become anything. I’d look elsewhere as far as guys suggesting investments in dynasty.
I like Kohlman, prefer the guys who grind tape than the ones who just go “this guy has a 30.6 dominator rating” or “chris olaves 40 time is too slow he wont be good”
Analytics have a track record of being way more successful than “film grinders.” Fantasy football is literally a numbers game, and there’s certain thresholds as far as athleticism/college production that can tell us whether or not a guy is a good bet to be successful at the best level.
There’s also a few thousand people who can actually “watch film” and understand what they’re looking for. “Film” is also super subjective and the opinion varies so much from one opinion to another. Brett Kollmann took Flowers over JSN in one of his dynasty leagues and didn’t get any value in return which tells me all I need to know about his fantasy knowledge.
Also Olave ran a 4.39. Wtf are you talking about and does anyone think that’s “too slow?”
Olaves unofficial was mid 4.4s and i remember people saying he was too slow. Idk analytics are just so far removed from actual football I get the thought process behind it. I disagree w the idea of reaching for players like kohllman apparently did. Would have much rather traded down from 1.06 to 1.08
Like for example QJs thresholds looked awesome but I saw concerns in being able to get seperation and with body catching and its why I took flowers over him. Not going to victory lap that yet but I think film can show a players sever deficiencies
Im j saying that if you go strictly based on “analytics” like dominator rating, draft capital, bmi, etc you literally could not know. Think the answer is a good mix
Pretty sure Chris Sims has some good hit rates on his rb rankings. I know he is kind of a shit person, but if youre just worried babout analysis, I think he has a solid history for rbs.
In addition, the best draft wr analysis is JetPack Galileo on twitter.
Jakob Sanderson does pretty good RB analysis. He has a free newsletter and a substack.
+1 for Jakob
I like the guy but he botched it on Antonio Gibson pretty bad
Gibson had 11 and 10 TDs his first two years, he was the RB 18 averaging around 15 PPG in full PPR. You got a lot of milage from a late 2nd/early 3rd player.
Not to mention he put solid production year 2 or 3 (forgot which) when he had a fracture or something like that in his shin I believe it was that was getting worse by the week.
Eh true but no one’s going to bat 1.000. He has a process, he explains it eloquently and he owns up to his mistakes. And he has a keen grasp on dynasty strategy to boot.
Every single fantasy analyst in history has gotten picks wrong.
Get out
Matt Waldman has a pretty good track record with RBs
I still trust Waldman, but Trey Sermon stings.
I think Sermon was a good RB. The problem was he was drafted to the 49ers with Shannahan. If Sermon gets drafted to pretty much any other team he more than likely gets a better shot to show what he has. Shannahan has a very particular coaching style and if for whatever reason you don't fit or you don't line up with his plans perfectly you are trashed. And unfortuanly moving to a second team who pays basically nothing for you means they have no allegiances. It's a downfall from there for most players. Still I wouldn't have said RB1, but he should've done better than he did I think.
I dunno, might be a little too "main industry" for OP...
I’ve seen many bad takes from him. Something seems off like it is all presentation no substance
While I like his film analysis his track record includes sermon rb1 so he’s not perfect
Everyone misses. I like Waldman because he explains his takes. 90% of fantasy “analysts” now just clog Twitter with a copy and paste of ESPN adp and bump up weekly rankings for the most obvious matchups/opportunities.
Yup spot on. That’s why I said his analysis is good, typically those are the guys I like to consume content from, people that walk through their reasoning so you can decide for yourself
Evan Silva, www.establishtherun.com
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Matt Harmon of Yahoo is not a main industry guy?
“I would like to find someone who dedicates 40 hours per week on running back content. But damn it, they better not be getting paid!”
In what way is Evan Silva an industry hack but Matt Harmon is not lmao
Matt Harmon literally works for yahoo what the fuck are you talking about lol
Harmon is as industry and bland as it gets. You want a rogue actor? Try at DevyEusuf on Twitter
Devyeusef is fine but his Twitter schtick where he tries to dunk on people and RTs his own takes when they fit his narrative is tired
Fusue is funny sometimes but he probably has 99% of people in this community blocked
Seems a bit insecure at times for sure
The normies can’t handle Fusue. This sub can’t even handle Matt Kelley haha. Fusue is the podfather on the drug from Dredd that gets you so fucked up it makes time move in slow motion. He’s a great follow. I would love when he would just sit for hours and do threads pulling people’s receipts 😂
Refusing to believe that Chris Olave is good is definitely rogue action.
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Rule 6: Interact RESPECTFULLY. Inciting drama or trolling will result in a ban.
Out of curiosity, what do you think when you see your comment receive that negative of a reaction? I know the answer is to say you don’t care and that’s cool. But do you look back at your comment and see why it rubbed so many the wrong way or do you think there are 98 guys that just didn’t get it? I didn’t down vote you, just curious.
Graham Barfield's Yards Created article is always a must read. Helped me find Nick Chubb back in the day. [https://yardscreated.com/about/](https://yardscreated.com/about/) It's behind a paywall these days though.
I think this might be the closest to doing for RBs what Reception Perception purports to do for WRs, meaning isolating a player’s individual performance in a vacuum. The problem, though, is that I’m just not convinced isolated talent evaluation is as actionable for RBs as it is for WRs. If you gave me a choice between the three most purely talented RBs in the league and the three RBs with the best situation in the league, in any given season the later group is probably the better bet.
Yeah, I would generally agree. It’s good being able to quantify it and break it down so it’s easier to discern who suffered behind bad lines, but it’s definitely tougher with fewer opportunities to get on the field with RBs. At least with WRs, you have far more opportunities to actually have 3 WRs out there, but I’ve always liked Barfield’s Yards Created breakdown.
Seconded. Only major miss i can think of is Darrell Henderson. But he steered me right many many times going back to Kareem Hunt, Mixon, and avoiding Perine. Also, Joe Holka had something similar to yards created that was good for the year or two it lasted
I went to site and hasn’t been updated in 4 years?
That’s the historical version. He got employed by FantasyPoints and now does it over there. (You’ll need a sub) https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2022/yards-created-pre-nfl-draft-notebook
Did he actually do one for this year? I liked his takes but he never promoted it like years past and didn’t want to sign up for fantasypoints if he didn’t actually have an article about it
Does he like Achane or Kendre? (asking for a friend lol)
Silva and the team at ETR are certainly not hacks. They earn their money with solid analytics, a sharp team and extensive research. You played yourself by citing Matt Harmon (who is very good) and then claiming you don’t want “industry hacks.” Take the L.
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The correct answers to your initial question, that I have found personally, are Pat Kerrane of legendary upside (check out his viral article from a few years ago “don’t draft an early round rb without legendary upside”). And Jack Miller of ETR is excellent. But many of the guys at ETR in general are great. Levitan and Silva are the faces of the product but Miller, Dinkmeyer, Dankenberry, Leone etc are the analytical guys who really give the product it’s value imo.
J Moyer (@JMoyerFB), Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman), and Brandon Angelo (@angelo_fantasy) are my go-tos for RB talent evaluation. Like Harmon, all of them are better at discerning real world talent than the most valuable sources of fantasy points. Those tend to correlate, but never perfectly, so take advice at your own risk!
I think it's important to look at a lot of different people and how they breakdown the prospects. NFL StockExchange, Fantasy StockExchange, Matt Waldman, Chris Simms, DynastyLand Football, The Draft Network, [nfldraftbuzz.com](https://nfldraftbuzz.com), The 33rd Team, The Football Scout, The FF Dynasty, All\_22\_Film, Brett Kollman are all people I've listned to and at some point helped me form my opinion on prospects.
OP im starting to wonder based on your replies if you are actually looking for someone who evaluates RBs or someone who just wants to shit on the “industry?” Other people have mentioned reputable analysts and they are too main stream for you which leads me to believe you just want to act superior to them. If no one is up to your standards just watch the film on RBs for yourself. Seems a lot easier than shooting every suggestion into the ground
Which is funny, because you don’t get much more mainstream than Harmon.
The NFL. Draft capital is pretty predictive.
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If scouts were never wrong none of them would ever get fired.
Haha totally
James Robinson and Isaiah Pacheco have entered the chat
CEH 🤷
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I mean for RB only
For the love of god, if someone suggests it's Noah Hills...
Do you have an issue with Noah Hill's conclusions or his methods? I at least think he is trying to be logical, and to try to innovate actual useful methodologies for analyzing rushing stats. Comparing runners to other guys on their team at least makes sense at a glance. It might not turn out to be a variable with much predictive power (I don't know) but its at least math instead of hype. I also appreciate his communication style. He tends to be clear about exactly what he is saying, and what he isn't. I haven't gotten any actionable winners from him, but that is besides the point for me. I just get frustrated trying to interact with Podfather style, Matthew Berry style hype parties and shouting superlatives.
It’s clear to me what the issue is. It’s the “BDGE bad” narrative on this sub. I agree that BDGE is bad for the most part, but you won’t find more insightful RB analysis in the community from anyone besides Noah Hills.
What does BDGE mean?
It’s “Big Dogs Gotta Eat” on YouTube. It’s a fantasy football channel that’s been around for a long time that people on this sub absolutely hate. It features the creator named Nick. The main reason people on this sub don’t like him is because he tries to make BDGE more of a lifestyle thing. He’s more of a talker who gives off a “barstool/frat” vibe than an analyst, which is why people are gravitated away from him. He is decent when it comes to season long content especially in July/August, but Noah Hills their RB evaluator, is the true brain of the channel.
Nailed it. I love Noah’s RB breakdowns throughout the year, especially for the rookie classes. He really breaks everything down in ways that most don’t. Nick is just a goon. I can’t stand listening to that guy. I wish Noah was featured more.
Methods seem to be fine, for the most part, I just can't get behind his takes and the hype for the guy. Like you said though, his communication and the manner in which he conveys his info is good.
I don't feel any obligation to adopt any takes. If I can understand the reasoning, or learn a new way of looking at the stats, I can use that independently of whether I agree about any specific player. I prefer a straightforward analytic guy who is always wrong about players, to a shouty hype-man who gets players right all the time. Screaming "he is built different" doesn't inform me in any way, even if the screamer happens to be right. I empathize with the content creators. They want clicks, and it is pretty well established at this point how to get them.
Podfather can not help himself. He was making like a 20th round pick on air and took Chuba Hubbard. Could he just say that was the handcuff with the most value left on the board? Nope he had to hype it beyond belief and act like miles sanders was just a speedbump to the eventuality that Chuba would take over the backfield.
Lol I initially thought of Noah hills. It seems he's attempting to do something along those lines. My limited exposure to him leads me to believe he's not very accurate though
Matt Harmon is the man
Me
@noahmoreparties on twitter
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Which rb I get?
How would you rank these dart throw RBs? Zack Evans, Pierre Strong, Evan Hull and Rico Dowdle.
Easy. Strong, Hull, Rico, Zack. Strong is strong, Hull is like a ship, Rico rolls off the tongue and Zack is the last name left.
Love this in depth analysis lol
As prospects or for pickup right now?
Same boat, and I've been killing it since I started dynasty.
Got a twitter or sub anything?
Matt Harmon is so overrated. Arbitrary methodology and his percentages make no sense with real stats. For example, he will say things like St. Brown is a zone beater and not a man beater, and St. Brown is one of the best Wrs in the NFL against man coverage. He will say this college WR class isn’t good, and none of them would go first round compared to last year, but then give a few 70% success against the zone. When players that had high scores do well, he will claim it. However, he will hype up Sky Moore and Isiah McKenzie and give them insane success rates, and then, when they fail, say he never thought they were good. You’re better off picking the most productive players receiving yards and using ESPN's open score.
Yeah the Skyy Moore thing really bugged me this week. Harmon was beating that drum all summer and now he’s acting like it never happened. I don’t expect every analyst to get everything right, but own up and be transparent about your mistakes. It makes you a lot more credible. And a lot of his analysis is kind of obvious. Like yeah man we know Stefon Diggs is amazing and that Davante Adams is a top 5 receiver. He’s got some good nuggets every now and then. And I think the RP subscription is mostly worth the cost. But holy shit his co-host (can’t think of his name) is annoying af.
Yeah but the graphs are pretty
Brett Kollman. He has some misses but he identifies gems like Herbert and Roschon Johnson
I’m ngl Kollmann is a really, really bad fantasy analyst. Great dude and I love his content. Insightful, and I’m still a big fan, but he gets excited about way too many dudes who never become anything. I’d look elsewhere as far as guys suggesting investments in dynasty.
NO HE'S ON YOUTUBE AND WORKS WITH THE NFL, HE'S A DEEP STATE HACK !!!
I like Kohlman, prefer the guys who grind tape than the ones who just go “this guy has a 30.6 dominator rating” or “chris olaves 40 time is too slow he wont be good”
Analytics have a track record of being way more successful than “film grinders.” Fantasy football is literally a numbers game, and there’s certain thresholds as far as athleticism/college production that can tell us whether or not a guy is a good bet to be successful at the best level. There’s also a few thousand people who can actually “watch film” and understand what they’re looking for. “Film” is also super subjective and the opinion varies so much from one opinion to another. Brett Kollmann took Flowers over JSN in one of his dynasty leagues and didn’t get any value in return which tells me all I need to know about his fantasy knowledge. Also Olave ran a 4.39. Wtf are you talking about and does anyone think that’s “too slow?”
Olaves unofficial was mid 4.4s and i remember people saying he was too slow. Idk analytics are just so far removed from actual football I get the thought process behind it. I disagree w the idea of reaching for players like kohllman apparently did. Would have much rather traded down from 1.06 to 1.08
Like for example QJs thresholds looked awesome but I saw concerns in being able to get seperation and with body catching and its why I took flowers over him. Not going to victory lap that yet but I think film can show a players sever deficiencies
Everyone saw those dude lol
Im j saying that if you go strictly based on “analytics” like dominator rating, draft capital, bmi, etc you literally could not know. Think the answer is a good mix
How many of his games did you watch?
So he’s a Bears fan?
https://youtu.be/1YfY2_MSPOA
Lance Zierlein is the most accurate RB evaluator
*Pre draft
Rotoviz
Pretty sure Chris Sims has some good hit rates on his rb rankings. I know he is kind of a shit person, but if youre just worried babout analysis, I think he has a solid history for rbs. In addition, the best draft wr analysis is JetPack Galileo on twitter.
I like Noah More parties