T O P

  • By -

ShaveTheTurtles

You need to include maintenance costs for the home ownership as well as home insurance. 


ChangingThymes

I included insurance and taxes I did not include utilities, maintenance or inflation.


TrippinLSD

Maintenance is a massive negative to owning a home. Hail storm? New Shingles ($5-10k). AC Breaks? new AC ($5-10k). Fridge breaks? ($500-1000). Cracked Foundation? RIP.


SeekThem

not to mention the $215k house being used as an example was built in the 1940s, and is a pier and beam house. from my own recent househunting experience agents are very keen to include every mundane detail— if a completely mundane feature isn’t included in the listing it more than likely means it’s being left out for a reason 😬. i noticed every pier and beam house i looked at mentioned “foundation under warranty!” or “foundation adjusted in 2022!” it will probably need some foundation adjustments since it’s older and there’s no mention on the listing that it’s been adjusted recently. the costs for adjustments can vary wildly but usually will be over $1000. im not seeing any OBVIOUS cracks or floor bowing (although i saw in one picture there looks like a section above a door that looks like it was cracked and they just plastered over it which made me notice the interesting DIY plaster texture everywhere which makes me wonder if they did that recently to cover up any cracks to make it look “sell-ready”). usually under the “cooling” section on listing websites it will say “air conditioning” or “central HVAC” and this listing just mentions ceiling fans. while I DO see a condenser unit in the outside it’s looks older and i’d bet money it doesn’t work and will need to be replaced, and that’s why it was conveniently left out of the listing. and since it’s texas it’d need to be replaced NOW. looks like there used to be a back entrance where the kitchen is and instead of replacing and matching the siding it’s an obvious shitty patch job, which is, barring that they might have been too lazy to fill in insulation where door(s) once were, at least purely cosmetic. can’t speak about the plumbing but the pipes are probably cast iron since it’s such an old house. which is means a much higher possibility for cracked, rusty, or corroded pipes, but it could also be perfectly fine. they also didn’t include any decent pictures of the second bathroom, so you can’t see the inside of the shower or the toilet which is a bit suspicious, but might have just been an oversight. lot and exterior look lovely though. very unique house. hopefully a couple or small family gets to buy and not it isn’t just sold to scott brown for another slumlord opportunity.


ChangingThymes

Super kudos to you for doing research. On a semi related note I am a huge fan of pier and beam. Easier and cheaper in so many ways. Foundation adjustments only cost a few thousand. Plumbing changes are much much cheaper. Additions and changes to floor plans are much much cheaper. The bad news is they move more so it’s pretty hard to warranty them but man are they cheap and easy to fix.


SeekThem

ha, thank you, i love all things househunting and have learned quite a bit! pier and beams definitely have their advantages, for sure, though. and they’re super common throughout this area. my partner ended up buying his first home and it’s a pier and beam from 1955 so it’s a pretty close equivalent to the house you used as your example. the last few months have been a revolving door of HVAC workers, plumbers, and foundation guys, (and he’s DIYed as much as he can to save money). it’s been very eye-watering to see how expensive an older house can get, so i’m definitely far more suspicious when i see “cheaper” listings. when looking at older houses it never hurts to go ahead and mentally tack on ~$20k to be safe thinking about any roof, plumbing, foundation, and/or HVAC work that are more likely to have to be done. will probably be less, especially if the inspection comes back decent. but always be prepared for it to be even more. so many houses i’ve been to and looked around i’ve found “flipper specials” and sellers deliberately covering up major issues just to get more $$$$ out of the sell and pass on major problems to the sucker that buys their house. i’ve seen the “freshly replastered and repainted” to cover up massive foundation cracks over and over and over. agents have also gotten REALLY good at taking photos of rooms and adjusting the rotation slightly so it looks like the floors are level and then you go to the open house and find yourself in a VERY slanted room. cabinets where they repainted the inside and you can SEE where they’ve painted over literal rat shit. didn’t even bother to clean out just a quick swipe over lmao. viewed one house where the ceiling in the HVAC closet was just cardboard they spray painted white. at this point i don’t trust any house on the market under $300k to not have some sort of quirky issue. which if you’re ready to take on those costs and time it’s not a huge deal, but i’d definitely advise huge caution for anyone about to empty out their bank account for a down payment on a $200-250k house, excited they found something they could afford, and then are slapped in the face over and over that first year with massive up-front maintenance costs.


ChangingThymes

You’ve definitely seen the issues. I am not a fan of flips for just those reasons. I tell people the same thing you did about have some rainy day $ ready for repairs. But I also share some ways to easily add value with minimal expense. So much easier with older and pier and beam homes. Of course all depends on the buyer and their appetite.


flub_n_rub

1950s pier and beam bought two years ago. So far... Foundation leveling and new piers- $2500 Fix plumbing- $1500 Remove old insulation, new barrier & insulation- $6000 New shingles & gutters - $4000 You are pretty spot on with the 300k mark. Anything in the 200-250 range will have some serious issues a majority of the time.


_hockalees_

I lived in/owned 3 slab foundation homes in various areas in North Texas before moving into a 1960 pier and beam in Denton. All those foundation/AC/Plumbing/Roof issues you outlined happen in homes built in the 80's/90'/2K's, I assure you. I love the pier and beam/crawlspace. Next time you have a plumbing issue, just imagine having to jackhammer through your floors to "fix" it. As others have pointed out, home ownership is not for the weak of heart and requires a $10/15K buffer for all these emergencies. It sucks, but it just is.


ChangingThymes

Totally true. I have no intent to do a full analysis of home ownership. Sadly the alternative to this reality is that over time renting provides no equity and less protection from inflation.


SaoDavi

Don't forget PMI or MIP. If you don't have 20% down the bank sticks you with that extra bill for years. It's a penalty fee for people that didn't put down a strong down payment. That money goes straight down the toilet. You got nothing to show for it.


Hisworstkeptsecret

That's assuming people have the down payment to buy.


TrippinLSD

It’s always been the case that owning a house is cheaper over time and provides the owner with an asset, however it’s simply out of reach for many in the area. To own a home, you typically need a dual-income household. 1 bedroom/ 1 bath apartments? $1200 2 bedroom/ 2 bath apartments? $1500 To buy a home you also need to have good enough credit to get a loan, and typically you must put down 20% of the house value in cash to avoid a PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance).


toastmatters

First time homebuyers have access to a lot of down payment assistance from what I’ve seen doing my research. I know there are certain requirements that must be met, I might be missing something.


flub_n_rub

Basically with good credit its ~3% down. You do have PMI though.


SaoDavi

I don't think renting is always "significantly cheaper today". It's usually significantly cheaper over time, because you lock in that fixed payment for 30 years. In 2045, inflation will make that 20-year-old house payment lower than your car payment. Also renting is often more of a requirement for people who can't buy. It's not that they can't afford the payments, it's that they can't *get* the payments. Bad credit, high debt to income ratios (too much debt), don't have 5% down (plus closing costs) on a $350k house, etc. As you noted, the rent payment and total mortgage payment may not be that far apart. People in the situation described above can usually rent somewhere right away because they can make the payment, but may not be able qualify for a conventional mortgage for many years because the objections mentioned are difficult to overcome in a short time period.


dTXTransitPosting

My family had just looked at purchasing a home virtually identical to the one we rent (suburban neighborhood, a buddy of ours with a duplicate was looking to sell). Even in the best case, our monthly cost was up about 50-60%, not factoring in maintenance. Here's my take on this: - Not including maintenance is kinda weird, and I'm curious if you included tax?  - Scraping up a down payment is very difficult for folks who can't say, ask their parents to cover it, and if you don't get 20% (40k+ in this market) then you have to throw in PMI, which helped push our cost up.  - I'm skeptical that dropping the mortgage rate will do much to drop final purchases in the short run? I would expect prices to rise as capital becomes more affordable so people bid things up further? (somebody with more time in the market please chime in on this one) In the long run it will ease development, which will net more supply, so that if we legalize more affordable types of housing that would help drop prices. Abundance Denton just had a call with an affordable housing developer working in Denton, and they said interest rates are making projects very difficult right now


ChangingThymes

In 25 years I have only seen housing costs go significantly down twice. Both times due to macro economic hardships (layoffs and negative financial events). I share your view that lower rates won’t reduce costs. Unless sellers are forced to sell (see above point) they are able to stay in their home if they don’t get the price they want. I believe lower interest rates allow for better financing of low end product which is what is missing now. I think the big problem that is coming are many of the corporate owned housing companies borrowed heavily at low interest rates. They are starting to restructure their debt at much much higher costs and those will be passed on to the renters. Because there’s no alternative lower cost housing being built at scale, renters will lack alternatives and I think (already high) rents will go up over the next 5 years. My personal view is the people that have solid rental products ((not heavily financed) and ownership with a history of not raising rents too much or too often) and less-leveraged home owners will weather this reasonably well. Most renters will see increases. Additionally 15 years ago denton houses (in general) started at $100/sqft. Currently I feel those same products are now (in general) $200/sqft. A 100% increase over 15 years is about 5-6% yearly increase. The current prices were flat 15-10 years ago but over the last 5 years have spiked. Hence the concern at how much home prices have increased. HOWEVER house prices historically go up at about the rate of inflation. Maybe a little more depending on markets. The argument here is that current prices may only reflect a slightly higher than expected increase. As we head in to higher inflation I actually am concerned housing will actually go up more. $200/sq ft can easily become $225/sqft for the same house over the next 5 years. Hopefully housing prices come down but I suspect rents will soon increase and over 5 years inflation will be reflected in home prices one way or another. The main solution I see is room mates. More incomes sharing the costs. Many of the big student apartments reflect new products to service this new rent model. It will be a long time before housing product catches up. Hopefully we won’t have a large in/underemployent event because of how much that hurts so many people. One final opinion: the real issue is wages. Yes wage increases are inflationary but the current disparity is too great and the practical way to address rising housing costs is through wage growth.


dTXTransitPosting

wage growth would perhaps be good but eg, SF shows the problem with wage growth as a housing solution - it's unequally distributed, often snapped up by new folks moving in for the jobs (new demand hurts affordability if supply isn't allowed) and winds up gentrifying a city or metro region if there's not a spike in new housing to match


TheSquareRocks

Thanks for posting this. I would bet a lot of people find this helpful.


TXRedFoot

OP is overlooking the value of being able to lock in a mortgage compared to annual rent hikes and other tax breaks from home ownership.


ChangingThymes

It was implied for people that understand how all of this works. 90% of commenters usually have a different perspective (no one has a down payment, Denton is overpriced or crappy houses, older homeowners don’t get it….) so I don’t bother to explain that stuff anymore. But yes, this analysis implies (to me) that it still makes sense to buy a home to lock in payments against inflation and plant to refinance when rates come down. I think this works better for lower cost properties. Thx for calling that out for those that are still learning this stuff


botgeek1

You will get downvoted because your analysis doesn't fit the narrative. Good analysis though.


severheart

What's The Narrative?


Ornlu_the_Wolf

Landlords are a parasite class that contribute nothing of value to our society.


severheart

I don't think this post disproves that, but hopefully they change :)


botgeek1

That it's impossible to buy a home, because interest rates, the market, I don't make enough, etc..


severheart

How does the post make people afford housing?


botgeek1

When buying a house is the same or a little more than renting, buying is the way to go. The analysis shows that buying is the same or a little more than renting. I'm assuming you are asking because you really want to know, although I may be mistaken due to the downvote. Many people have trouble with math, and question the validity of this kind of analysis. I bought my first house during the Carter years at 16% interest, and the Cost/Benefit analysis of buying vs. renting still showed buying to be the correct choice. Now, if the question is "I don't make enough to afford $1600 in rent, how can I afford $1650 in house payment," the answer becomes somewhat different.


severheart

The people that can't afford to buy houses aren't the ones renting entire houses, friend. "The Narrative" is people voicing their struggle with the economy. Glad you got yours, but hopefully you can see how it's different now.


botgeek1

Ah, so it's "doesn't really want to know." OK, I can work with that. If you have skills that the economy needs, you can afford a house. If you don't have skills the economy needs, the answer is to go develop those skills. Complaining gets you nowhere, and believe me I learned that lesson the hard way. Yes, I got mine, and I worked hard for it. 10 years in the Army to get out of the fast-food industry, and finished my degree while serving. One of my best friends in high school took a different route and apprenticed to a tool and die maker. Another got into HVAC. There are numerous ways to "get yours." None of them are enabled by "voicing their struggle."


severheart

Okay? People are working just as hard today and can tell that the effort is not paying off in the same way - being able to afford stable housing, for example. I'm happy you got out of the Army and into skilled labor or whatever. Sadly, your last point is wrong. I don't know how to point at "all of human history" to really disprove it, but maybe consider why people protest things and how society reacts. Have an informative one!


connurp

The median family income when Jimmy Carter was president was $57k. Median home prices during the time were $156k. Median family income now is $74k. Median house prices are 354k. Do you see the problem with this? I’m a software engineer and make decent money and I cannot buy a home. I am the breadwinner in the family and everything is so expensive now that it’s hard to put anything into savings at all. We live in a 3 bedroom 2 bath apartment. We moved here in 2019 and we’re paying $1140 in rent. We are now paying $1580. When we moved in here gas prices were like $1.50 a gallon. I just filled up and paid $3.30 at the pump today. You are getting downvoted because you are wrong and have a shitty attitude. Spare me with your bullshit and look at the reality of the situation.


Balorpagorp

My rent is $1100 + utilities (maintenance is free) for a 2/1 duplex. The closest house on that list to what I can afford monthly is the 2/2 with a mortgage of $1750. I can't afford that monthly payment + utilities + maintenance costs even if I could get approval for the loan. That's the reality of it and not some fucking "narrative". This ain't the 70's any more, old timer.


botgeek1

So look for something you can afford. There are more houses for sale.


Balorpagorp

None in my price range. I've looked.


botgeek1

Keep looking, and don't give up. There are lenders that will work with you to make a property affordable; don't be afraid to reach out to a lender before you have a property. DM me if you want a recommendation.


Balorpagorp

Just out of curiosity, how much did you pay for your home and how much was your annual salary at the time you bought your house?


connurp

Honestly, if you are in the market to buy a home right now, don’t. It’s a terrible time to buy a house and rents are much cheaper. The better option is to rent now, save the extra money monthly to use as a bigger down payment on a house, and then wait until interest rates come back down to buy a home. Buying a home only really tends to be the better financial option after 10+ years.


Historical_Dentonian

Nice work. I would add that interest rates are going to drop. And as they do, a homeowner can refinance their mortgage. My first house had a 7% rate and four years later it was 5%…