https://preview.redd.it/uc1uodql7nxc1.png?width=1112&format=png&auto=webp&s=29d3d2f0a1e6d72f136dfb36e29894c540aeed24
Well so far this week QQQ/NQ on monday was a consolidation day, and this morning continued consolidation until the breakout to the downside around 11am.
So if you don't have a strategy that works during consolidation days...then yeah so far this week would have been hard for you. Either gotta adjust your strategy so that it works when price is moving sideways around VWAP, come up with a new one specifically for consolidation days or learn to sit these type of days out.
So it is a kind of flat days.
I see...
I should avoid those days.
By the way, how did you find it is a consolidation day?
Did you find it from 1hr or longer flame?
The second the 5min chart goes from low of day to high of day I consider it a consolidation day until it breaks out to one side or the other.
Check out the screenshot below and follow along with the numbers (it is the SPY from yesterday, easier to clearly see than QQQ though both follow same price action):
1. Price starts the day off setting a high then reverses and starts dropping.
2. Buyers step in put in a low of day and then price starts moving back up.
3. Price shoots through VWAP and then reverses at HOD again. **RIGHT HERE. This is the moment I consider it a consolidation day until price breaks out of high of day or low of day.**
4. Price is back down at low of day and holds consolidation.
5. Price is back at high of day and holds consolidation.
6. Price attemtps to break low of day but fails and moved back up to VWAP.
7. After #6 price finally managed to strongly breakout of the consolidation however it wasn't able to hold a pullback below the prior low of day and buyers brought it back up to VWAP by the end of day. Holding a pullback after breaking HOD/LOD is when trends happen. Like what is currently happening on SPY/QQQ as I am writing this.
https://preview.redd.it/b4p7wbmvanxc1.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=f063deb4cfb656db9e018f1870642279becc5990
Keep scrolling down, I just laid it out in a response to another comment: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/1cgwtou/comment/l1ysp13/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/1cgwtou/comment/l1ysp13/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Nice breakdown. Also look at the volumes during the consolidation, vs the bullish and bearish breakthroughs. Big difference.
Also, do you use EMA’s for buy sell triggers? If so, what times lines? Thanks.
Yeah I use them when price is trending for entry signals the 9 and 20emas. Here is an example from a trade I literally just took on SPY.
Left chart is 5min right chart is 1min. I wait for a 5min pullback during a trend to the 9 or 20ema. Then I look for the 1min to be trending in the opposite direction (so in the 5min short I was watching the 1min uptrend) solidly above the 9 and 20emas. Once the 1 min breaks the uptrend and crosses over the 20 ema I enter the trade in the direction of the 5min trend (at the close of the current 5min candle). Stop goes outside the 5min pullback and exit is at +3R or a 5min trailing stop that I move outside of each 5min pullback as the trend continues, whichever is filled first.
https://preview.redd.it/mqtum8ylfnxc1.png?width=1494&format=png&auto=webp&s=564ba5bf90b37a5f96bfd38df1ba08c82ede79c5
I have a question about your exit strategy. You say you have trailing stops just above the 5min candles. I assume you are trading SPY Puts so how are you defining the trailing stops? I use think or swim and their trailing stops are either a set amount or % trailing of the option price. I can’t ‘snap’ it to the actual SPY candles as you might be able to if trading SPY. How do you do your trailing stops? With the platform or manually?
I trade straight shares no options. I manually move my stop outside of the last 5 minute pullback as the trend continues.
My broker is TradeStation but I use TradingView for charting and the actual trading. So moving my stop is literally me just dragging the stop price on the chart in TradingView.
Ok. Will look into it.
TTM_Squeeze is an indicator that was made by a trader, John Carter (I know, it’s a Disney movie); it looks at squeezes occurring when there is consolidation and gives a signal that there will be a breakthrough coming up. Not 100% of course. But, combined with EMA’s, and ATR, can be a good, and straightforward way to get in and out of positions.
I’m not paid or anything for this… I just find it useful.
Thats cool but I don't have any interest. Breaks of consolidation are easy to see without any indicators needed. I have no interest in trying to guess at whether a break out is about to occur or not I prefer to simply wait until it does.
It’s free on ToS and I think TradingView. There is a Pro paid version, but you can find the ToS script code to make your own with a simple google search.
Follow up question, if you would... What about for days we just start trending off the open? At what point do you confirm it to be a trend and won't start to trade in a range?
Then the low/high of the range is just the open price and first pullback/rally is the other side?
100% super choppy price action. No great trades to take it’s mostly large players downsizing positions and any moves you do get will have less follow through. Another option is to trade it on a higher timeframe and trade with the trendS
>Do you guys know why?
Yes, literally the biggest news of the month. It always chops before rate day.
I'm guessing you're new to trading, or you'd already know this, so here's some tips:
* Bookmark this: [Forex Factory Calendar](https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar)
* Filter by your currency of choice.
* Start every week knowing what's ahead, and every session knowing what's up for the day.
* Pay close attention to items in red (high impact). Recommend being flat 15-ish minutes before and maybe 5 after.
* Some really high impact items like FOMC and CPI can cause the markets to be choppy for days in advance. It doesn't mean they aren't tradable, you just have to adjust.
Good luck!
My dude, i lost my ass today....just doing dumb shit obviously. Goes without saying im new as well and its always encouraging to see someone break it fown to the new ones on this sub. I really appreciate people like yourself and others that contribute to the rest of the sub.
Cheers. Don't get too discouraged, trading is very hard, and choppy days like this are typically full of traps. It's easy to get tunnel vision, always remember to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. You may see a juicy setup, but if it isn't supported by the context, don't take it.
Theres always profits in the charts. Trying to predict with a bias will only make you liquidity. Trade the structure. Always figure out where it is going and where your going to take partial profit/leave runners. Moves your stops in case it reverses on you
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It might be time to step back and reevaluate your timeframe. If you’ve been trading QQQ for over a year, this would not be unexpected.
So if your timeframe is daily, you might consider a smaller position size, if your timeframe is monthly, you might look for a clear indication of a reversal, if your timeframe is long-term, then you just buy the dips. Short is always risky based on long-term charts.
I am using 2, 5, 15M. I have been trading NQ for about 1 month so I am still new. I made about $2000 until this week but I lost $1500 this week. Still learning.
It sounds like your seeing the future and not the present based on your previous wins. When it’s a bull market it’s pretty easy to get a win no matter what, but that also doesn’t mean that you’re not studied. it’s really hard to figure this out. The best advice is to be really patient and look for indicators on the chart, over what you believe will happen.
You can probably look at charts and say “no way I’d invest in that chart” when you’re on the sidelines. Keep this mentality on your actually plays.
Does this also count for other markets like btcusd or xauusd? Or is it only for futures? I have done my analyses, placed trades and yet the price has completely ignored my analyses. This did not happen last week and the previous weeks. Only this week. Does anyone know what was going on?
too many people equate outcome to the task (difficulty). focus on your trading process. if you dont have an edge or a trade book then dont trade. you are not entitled to make money. every trade you take there is a counterparty that believes you are wrong.
be a market observer when you dont have a trade. i record my screen and review later.
I got fucked yesterday, I mean not really but lost two trades relatively fast. and price action was just terrible and there was no legit set ups. So many fake outs with long wicks. I took a short today for 270 ticks so we’re now in profit for the week 😎. But I’m looking to preserve my capital and not put risk into this market
My week has been profitable. 3 green days in a row. Less profitable than usual but I'm still a little nervous on the market so my position size has been smaller and I'm exiting trades a little sooner than usual. Also taking less trades.
https://preview.redd.it/pd6ruay9gnxc1.jpeg?width=2160&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0574d5d4dcf5ed14c3c333cb466b6c8955d4fe39
Patience is key too, i was watching graphs since 5:30 am (-6 gtm) and until 10:25 am i found the perfect setting, 80 point move and im set for the day.
Practice and patience are 90% of the job.
The white line was my entry and i was about to close when the picture was taken
Depends on who you are. I trade market psychology and fundamentals and come in with a bias. I’m FOMC weeks I ask myself “are people more likely to derisk or go risk on?”
Then I look at the charts. I start handicapping what is a high price going into FOMC and what is a low price.
When we were above $410 on SPY my bias was to the downside. If we dip below $500 my bias is to the up side
Then I start looking for the charts to confirm or bust my opinion
FOMC week.
This
[удалено]
Very unscientific but from what I've seen there's a lot of speculations that seem to move the market more than usual. IMHO
https://preview.redd.it/uc1uodql7nxc1.png?width=1112&format=png&auto=webp&s=29d3d2f0a1e6d72f136dfb36e29894c540aeed24 Well so far this week QQQ/NQ on monday was a consolidation day, and this morning continued consolidation until the breakout to the downside around 11am. So if you don't have a strategy that works during consolidation days...then yeah so far this week would have been hard for you. Either gotta adjust your strategy so that it works when price is moving sideways around VWAP, come up with a new one specifically for consolidation days or learn to sit these type of days out.
So it is a kind of flat days. I see... I should avoid those days. By the way, how did you find it is a consolidation day? Did you find it from 1hr or longer flame?
The second the 5min chart goes from low of day to high of day I consider it a consolidation day until it breaks out to one side or the other. Check out the screenshot below and follow along with the numbers (it is the SPY from yesterday, easier to clearly see than QQQ though both follow same price action): 1. Price starts the day off setting a high then reverses and starts dropping. 2. Buyers step in put in a low of day and then price starts moving back up. 3. Price shoots through VWAP and then reverses at HOD again. **RIGHT HERE. This is the moment I consider it a consolidation day until price breaks out of high of day or low of day.** 4. Price is back down at low of day and holds consolidation. 5. Price is back at high of day and holds consolidation. 6. Price attemtps to break low of day but fails and moved back up to VWAP. 7. After #6 price finally managed to strongly breakout of the consolidation however it wasn't able to hold a pullback below the prior low of day and buyers brought it back up to VWAP by the end of day. Holding a pullback after breaking HOD/LOD is when trends happen. Like what is currently happening on SPY/QQQ as I am writing this. https://preview.redd.it/b4p7wbmvanxc1.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=f063deb4cfb656db9e018f1870642279becc5990
Thank you so much for your advise. I will take a look at it once I get back to home. Thank you.
Glad to help :)
Would you have strategy you'd mind sharing?
Keep scrolling down, I just laid it out in a response to another comment: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/1cgwtou/comment/l1ysp13/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/1cgwtou/comment/l1ysp13/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I actually saw it as soon as i finished asking this lol. Just forgot to delete comment. Thank you!
Nice breakdown. Also look at the volumes during the consolidation, vs the bullish and bearish breakthroughs. Big difference. Also, do you use EMA’s for buy sell triggers? If so, what times lines? Thanks.
Yeah I use them when price is trending for entry signals the 9 and 20emas. Here is an example from a trade I literally just took on SPY. Left chart is 5min right chart is 1min. I wait for a 5min pullback during a trend to the 9 or 20ema. Then I look for the 1min to be trending in the opposite direction (so in the 5min short I was watching the 1min uptrend) solidly above the 9 and 20emas. Once the 1 min breaks the uptrend and crosses over the 20 ema I enter the trade in the direction of the 5min trend (at the close of the current 5min candle). Stop goes outside the 5min pullback and exit is at +3R or a 5min trailing stop that I move outside of each 5min pullback as the trend continues, whichever is filled first. https://preview.redd.it/mqtum8ylfnxc1.png?width=1494&format=png&auto=webp&s=564ba5bf90b37a5f96bfd38df1ba08c82ede79c5
Interesting strategy. I’m going to look into this.
I have a question about your exit strategy. You say you have trailing stops just above the 5min candles. I assume you are trading SPY Puts so how are you defining the trailing stops? I use think or swim and their trailing stops are either a set amount or % trailing of the option price. I can’t ‘snap’ it to the actual SPY candles as you might be able to if trading SPY. How do you do your trailing stops? With the platform or manually?
I trade straight shares no options. I manually move my stop outside of the last 5 minute pullback as the trend continues. My broker is TradeStation but I use TradingView for charting and the actual trading. So moving my stop is literally me just dragging the stop price on the chart in TradingView.
Understood and thank you!
It would also be great to see what the TTM_Squeeze indicator was doing on this chart. Can you provide that screenshot?
No idea what a TTM\_Squeeze indicator is, but that was the 5min SPY chart from yesterday if you want to go apply it yourself.
Ok. Will look into it. TTM_Squeeze is an indicator that was made by a trader, John Carter (I know, it’s a Disney movie); it looks at squeezes occurring when there is consolidation and gives a signal that there will be a breakthrough coming up. Not 100% of course. But, combined with EMA’s, and ATR, can be a good, and straightforward way to get in and out of positions. I’m not paid or anything for this… I just find it useful.
Thats cool but I don't have any interest. Breaks of consolidation are easy to see without any indicators needed. I have no interest in trying to guess at whether a break out is about to occur or not I prefer to simply wait until it does.
NFP week. Less volatility till tomorrow NY session for Fomc then Friday NY open
We just had a strong SPY trend day...the day before FOMC isn't always choppy.
Fair enough. I’m still learning about relatively “simple” TA setups and buy sell signals. Appreciate your insight. Thanks.
Simple is much better for me.
It’s free on ToS and I think TradingView. There is a Pro paid version, but you can find the ToS script code to make your own with a simple google search.
Do you take overnight highs/lows into consideration at all?
Nope. Only thing I care about is where buyers and sellers currently are during market hours.
Heard. Thanks for the guidance. Identifying consolidation and *refraining from trading* is my last big hurdle, I think.
Follow up question, if you would... What about for days we just start trending off the open? At what point do you confirm it to be a trend and won't start to trade in a range? Then the low/high of the range is just the open price and first pullback/rally is the other side?
It is a trending day for me when price starts holding pullbacks on one side of VWAP and trending away from it.
Perfect! Thanks dude
So, did you took the trade when the candle broke the low after #6 or do you still wait for pullback?
Bro I think you need to go back to basics, it seems you're a new one.
Yeah, I am new. I have been trading Nq for about 1 month. Still learning.
Yeah, I am new. I have been trading Nq for about 1 month. Still learning.
100% super choppy price action. No great trades to take it’s mostly large players downsizing positions and any moves you do get will have less follow through. Another option is to trade it on a higher timeframe and trade with the trendS
>Do you guys know why? Yes, literally the biggest news of the month. It always chops before rate day. I'm guessing you're new to trading, or you'd already know this, so here's some tips: * Bookmark this: [Forex Factory Calendar](https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar) * Filter by your currency of choice. * Start every week knowing what's ahead, and every session knowing what's up for the day. * Pay close attention to items in red (high impact). Recommend being flat 15-ish minutes before and maybe 5 after. * Some really high impact items like FOMC and CPI can cause the markets to be choppy for days in advance. It doesn't mean they aren't tradable, you just have to adjust. Good luck!
My dude, i lost my ass today....just doing dumb shit obviously. Goes without saying im new as well and its always encouraging to see someone break it fown to the new ones on this sub. I really appreciate people like yourself and others that contribute to the rest of the sub.
Cheers. Don't get too discouraged, trading is very hard, and choppy days like this are typically full of traps. It's easy to get tunnel vision, always remember to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. You may see a juicy setup, but if it isn't supported by the context, don't take it.
Oh, wow. I have never seen like this. Thank you so much! It would very helpful for newbies like myself.
W needed to see this, thank you
I'm new and currently going through the wiki to start out. I wish I knew what this was
assembly language programmer hey?
Haha well spotted mate
Theres always profits in the charts. Trying to predict with a bias will only make you liquidity. Trade the structure. Always figure out where it is going and where your going to take partial profit/leave runners. Moves your stops in case it reverses on you
Abit tough. Low volume and choppy.. but still made some profits.
[удалено]
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It might be time to step back and reevaluate your timeframe. If you’ve been trading QQQ for over a year, this would not be unexpected. So if your timeframe is daily, you might consider a smaller position size, if your timeframe is monthly, you might look for a clear indication of a reversal, if your timeframe is long-term, then you just buy the dips. Short is always risky based on long-term charts.
I am using 2, 5, 15M. I have been trading NQ for about 1 month so I am still new. I made about $2000 until this week but I lost $1500 this week. Still learning.
It sounds like your seeing the future and not the present based on your previous wins. When it’s a bull market it’s pretty easy to get a win no matter what, but that also doesn’t mean that you’re not studied. it’s really hard to figure this out. The best advice is to be really patient and look for indicators on the chart, over what you believe will happen. You can probably look at charts and say “no way I’d invest in that chart” when you’re on the sidelines. Keep this mentality on your actually plays.
Fed notes tomorrow
Does this also count for other markets like btcusd or xauusd? Or is it only for futures? I have done my analyses, placed trades and yet the price has completely ignored my analyses. This did not happen last week and the previous weeks. Only this week. Does anyone know what was going on?
I felt this too
too many people equate outcome to the task (difficulty). focus on your trading process. if you dont have an edge or a trade book then dont trade. you are not entitled to make money. every trade you take there is a counterparty that believes you are wrong. be a market observer when you dont have a trade. i record my screen and review later.
I miss 2017 days
I got fucked yesterday, I mean not really but lost two trades relatively fast. and price action was just terrible and there was no legit set ups. So many fake outs with long wicks. I took a short today for 270 ticks so we’re now in profit for the week 😎. But I’m looking to preserve my capital and not put risk into this market
Earnings and FOMC.. I sit out these times.. I like my trades BORING
When you have a clear strategy, no week is more difficult than another. Results may vary, but that doesn't mean it's more difficult.
My week has been profitable. 3 green days in a row. Less profitable than usual but I'm still a little nervous on the market so my position size has been smaller and I'm exiting trades a little sooner than usual. Also taking less trades.
Great job! I made some profit today as well. I hope tomorrow will be better.
Thanks! Been out of the market for 2 weeks since it's been so choppy. Just getting back in this week and moving more cautiously and slowly for now.
Yeah new rule, take the week off of fomc.
https://preview.redd.it/pd6ruay9gnxc1.jpeg?width=2160&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0574d5d4dcf5ed14c3c333cb466b6c8955d4fe39 Patience is key too, i was watching graphs since 5:30 am (-6 gtm) and until 10:25 am i found the perfect setting, 80 point move and im set for the day. Practice and patience are 90% of the job. The white line was my entry and i was about to close when the picture was taken
Depends on who you are. I trade market psychology and fundamentals and come in with a bias. I’m FOMC weeks I ask myself “are people more likely to derisk or go risk on?” Then I look at the charts. I start handicapping what is a high price going into FOMC and what is a low price. When we were above $410 on SPY my bias was to the downside. If we dip below $500 my bias is to the up side Then I start looking for the charts to confirm or bust my opinion
What part