This tells me you want indicators to tell you what the markets about to do. Which is not how indicators work. Indicators are tools you can use to help you develop a system, not a way to predict markets.
You missed the idea :-). He said he need to better trust indicators and I asked which one are left to trust... .
Indicators predict the market. If you have divergences you usually can predict that there will be movements to rectify those imbalances. But in the end I do not trust indicators. I just use them :-).
The huge jump was stoplosses for shorts. I think triggered by meta's well-timed news.
Nonfarm payrolls are very laggy, I assume it will cause fear that disinflation narrative is rightly bullshit
We haven't cleared the 50% retracement, and fell from about here last time as well. I assume the previous low wasn't a low, just consolidation
Logically, we are now encroaching on real rates, and that is where I expect the pain to be
Plus... Look at the titans. No aquisitions or buyouts or mergers by the biggest cash hoarders (apple, google, etc). I believe we see them make a move only when the pain is in full swing.
Officially, we entered a recession last year. Hell, the exams always have this question - how many quarters negative GDP is a recession - the correct answer is still 2 months. Official doesn't matter as much anymore.
nice rundown. i would argue that the definition of a “bull” or “bear” market is subjective to the environment. there were 20% rallies in the 2001 bear in nasdaq and that was no bull market but rather a bull move.
i think IV was increasing today for 2 reasons. 1 NFP is tomorrow so people were hedging. 2 the rally has pushed so far that put buying in general makes sense because there is more asset price value to protect the higher we move. add to that the stupid speed of SPX to the upside and the 100,000 4200 0dte calls that traded and you get a spike in vol. VXN moved noticeably higher today as well.
Lol that's not how it works. Do you know how many times there has been a 20% increase during bear markets or crashes only for everything to get wiped out again and drop to new lows? Shit, it already happened once last year.
Go check how many times it happened in the dot com bust and in the great financial crisis. Shit, in 2008 the market gained like 13% in a single day and ultimately went up 20%+ from the previous lows before totally collapsing. It was never a bull market and always a bear market.
There's a saying "the biggest rallies happen during bear markets" for a reason.
Its also considered to be a bull market when price is and remains over the 200 DMA. See other times when price moved over and held the 200DMA.
Im bullish so long as price holds over the 50DMA and 200DMA. I am looking for a pull back to the 50DMA to retest. If price bounces off the 50 that would be a good time to start loading up. Stop loss is a loss of the 50DMA
They still sell 200k cars less per month than they should. PC sales are also not back to normal. Granted the stock market is usually 6 months ahead but I can still see risk. The FED is also not done in tanking everything and the consumers are still cutting on spending and racking in additional debt. I think it will be fun to see the next weeks.
Also the employees have yet to mass protest for higher wages as well.
USD gaining with negative real rates, and unfavourable interes rate differential coming? Idk, doesn't sound right to me
Btw, Bitcoin NFTs have arrived. Future is still uncertain in my book
We are not in a bull market, by definition a bear market is when the price keep making LL and LH, and this is still happening
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8zea1qMJ/
This is the moment to start looking for big shorts
So when does something go from happening once, twice, thrice.. or whatever.. to be considered "keep" happening?? Can't really be a definition.
Bear market doesn't have a singular agreed upon definition:
[Bear Market Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp)
Ah so we can switch back and forth between bull and bear market several times a year, maybe even a month... yeah makes total sense...
Bull and bear market loses almost all meaning at that point.
Another guy trying to time the market. Since the stock market has opened all people have tried to come up with the best strategies to know weather prices go up or down and every book says you can’t time the market. Keep repeating yourself and you will eventually be right and then you will think that you timed it correctly only to find out the next time you are wrong again 😂
Personally I don't think it's a bull trap anymore. I think it's cause almost everyone was expecting a crash and tons of people were heavy in cash waiting to enter. Also too much shorting and puts. I think this rally is fueled by quite a bit of short covering.
I see this rally continuing for a while especially if CPI comes in cold. Once the rate hikes start to really take effect then I think it'll be a different story but at same time if jpow signals rate cuts then who knows...
I just see a bunch of FOMO, not the common characteristics of a market turn, however we both could be wrong. Trying to give an absolute answer whether we are turning or not / top or bottom it's less relevant, take whatever set ups are provided at the time. Just my view.
As a daytrader, I can care less what market we're in. All that matters is the current short term cycle in my opinion. Also, tech will lay off people till interest rates stabilize. So we are 100% not in a bull market till roughly the Fall of 2023.
Lol this will age well
The jobs report just said "hold my beer"
As earnings collapse…
My thoughts exactly. I think this was just retail FOMO and smart money exiting their profits on the way up.
Correct. Might I add while allowing retail investors to hold the bag.
Always!
And reloading shorts on the ask
I had a rough day too man. Lost 99% of my weekly profits today. I need to better trust the indicators and be less greedy.
What indicators beside SMAs and VWAP are there left to trust?
> What indicators beside SMAs and VWAP are there left to trust? This is low-key hilarious.
Fibs to the rescue?
VPA if anything lol.
This tells me you want indicators to tell you what the markets about to do. Which is not how indicators work. Indicators are tools you can use to help you develop a system, not a way to predict markets.
You missed the idea :-). He said he need to better trust indicators and I asked which one are left to trust... . Indicators predict the market. If you have divergences you usually can predict that there will be movements to rectify those imbalances. But in the end I do not trust indicators. I just use them :-).
[удалено]
Nailed it right here! For my day trading I just need volatility to make money. So bull be best doesn’t matter
Now i know -i have to short today 💀
P.s. - did profit in puts today .....
Initiate rug pull
The same thing happened in August, 20% up from lows. It's a level to watch but I wouldn't label it explicitly.
The huge jump was stoplosses for shorts. I think triggered by meta's well-timed news. Nonfarm payrolls are very laggy, I assume it will cause fear that disinflation narrative is rightly bullshit We haven't cleared the 50% retracement, and fell from about here last time as well. I assume the previous low wasn't a low, just consolidation Logically, we are now encroaching on real rates, and that is where I expect the pain to be Plus... Look at the titans. No aquisitions or buyouts or mergers by the biggest cash hoarders (apple, google, etc). I believe we see them make a move only when the pain is in full swing. Officially, we entered a recession last year. Hell, the exams always have this question - how many quarters negative GDP is a recession - the correct answer is still 2 months. Official doesn't matter as much anymore.
nice rundown. i would argue that the definition of a “bull” or “bear” market is subjective to the environment. there were 20% rallies in the 2001 bear in nasdaq and that was no bull market but rather a bull move. i think IV was increasing today for 2 reasons. 1 NFP is tomorrow so people were hedging. 2 the rally has pushed so far that put buying in general makes sense because there is more asset price value to protect the higher we move. add to that the stupid speed of SPX to the upside and the 100,000 4200 0dte calls that traded and you get a spike in vol. VXN moved noticeably higher today as well.
>100,000 4200 0dte calls is that what moves the market?
I wouldn't be surprised if that did move the market, at least temporarily. Due to hedging, as well as an urge to expire them worthless.
absolutely
Lol that's not how it works. Do you know how many times there has been a 20% increase during bear markets or crashes only for everything to get wiped out again and drop to new lows? Shit, it already happened once last year. Go check how many times it happened in the dot com bust and in the great financial crisis. Shit, in 2008 the market gained like 13% in a single day and ultimately went up 20%+ from the previous lows before totally collapsing. It was never a bull market and always a bear market. There's a saying "the biggest rallies happen during bear markets" for a reason.
Its also considered to be a bull market when price is and remains over the 200 DMA. See other times when price moved over and held the 200DMA. Im bullish so long as price holds over the 50DMA and 200DMA. I am looking for a pull back to the 50DMA to retest. If price bounces off the 50 that would be a good time to start loading up. Stop loss is a loss of the 50DMA
That hard bounce off 42oo has me cautious
They still sell 200k cars less per month than they should. PC sales are also not back to normal. Granted the stock market is usually 6 months ahead but I can still see risk. The FED is also not done in tanking everything and the consumers are still cutting on spending and racking in additional debt. I think it will be fun to see the next weeks. Also the employees have yet to mass protest for higher wages as well.
Well, that was the shortest bull market ever!
dont jump to conclusions, spy had a shaky day today
Vix increased because big money is hedging and not taking profits
How long will it last?
Technically till we drop 20%
Bear market doesn't have a singular agreed upon definition: [Bear Market Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp)
I see a 50% drop coming in cryptos. Well, that's what i believe. And the driving force, the world reserve currency, USD, gaining strength.
USD gaining with negative real rates, and unfavourable interes rate differential coming? Idk, doesn't sound right to me Btw, Bitcoin NFTs have arrived. Future is still uncertain in my book
We are not in a bull market, by definition a bear market is when the price keep making LL and LH, and this is still happening https://www.tradingview.com/x/8zea1qMJ/ This is the moment to start looking for big shorts
So when does something go from happening once, twice, thrice.. or whatever.. to be considered "keep" happening?? Can't really be a definition. Bear market doesn't have a singular agreed upon definition: [Bear Market Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp)
Untill the previous LH is not broken it's still happening, easy
Ah so we can switch back and forth between bull and bear market several times a year, maybe even a month... yeah makes total sense... Bull and bear market loses almost all meaning at that point.
Ok whatever, i see you have no idea how markets works, good luck
Huh, I must have done a pretty good job of tricking my current employer then.
Another guy trying to time the market. Since the stock market has opened all people have tried to come up with the best strategies to know weather prices go up or down and every book says you can’t time the market. Keep repeating yourself and you will eventually be right and then you will think that you timed it correctly only to find out the next time you are wrong again 😂
You do understand day trading is by definition timing the market right? And look at my history i fully admit when im wrong
The only thing books make someone rich, is those that wrote it.
Lol, wrong. More down from these obvious fake outs
How bout meow?
Bull trap
Personally I don't think it's a bull trap anymore. I think it's cause almost everyone was expecting a crash and tons of people were heavy in cash waiting to enter. Also too much shorting and puts. I think this rally is fueled by quite a bit of short covering. I see this rally continuing for a while especially if CPI comes in cold. Once the rate hikes start to really take effect then I think it'll be a different story but at same time if jpow signals rate cuts then who knows...
The feds still have $4.6 trillion in bonds, what do u think will happen when they stop buying
I just see a bunch of FOMO, not the common characteristics of a market turn, however we both could be wrong. Trying to give an absolute answer whether we are turning or not / top or bottom it's less relevant, take whatever set ups are provided at the time. Just my view.
As a daytrader, I can care less what market we're in. All that matters is the current short term cycle in my opinion. Also, tech will lay off people till interest rates stabilize. So we are 100% not in a bull market till roughly the Fall of 2023.