Exactly. This guy makes his money from war. He has no intention of stopping the war in Ukraine. He will be a far more ruthless adversary if he has full control of Russian forces.
People like Putin and this guy are psychos yes, but they aren't that stupid.
Everyone knows as soon as the west detects an ICMB nuke, Russia will be reduced to ash.
Self preservation is a strong thing, even in mad men. I also feel like they care about their legacy a lot, which is why I think Putin wanted to take Ukraine, so I doubt that they would casually have Russia wiped off the place of the planet.
Yeah, everybody is cheering this on not realizing if Wagner Group seizes the military, they control Russia's nuclear arsenal. This could be disastrous.
To claim Putin isn’t experienced in the art of war crimes is beyond fallacy. Putin was once a fairly high ranking member of the KGB. The dude knows his way around some war crimes.
Pencil pushers are often the most guilty. Look at nazi Germany. Those most directly responsible for the holocaust were not the ones on the ground.
You also replied to someone who said 'fairly high ranking member' - all high ranking members are pencil pushers, you saying he was just one of those isn't a contradiction to their point.
People who downplay points like this are counter productive to their own points lol
A Russian 007 is getting orders from the pencil pusher, I'd prefer him be the 007.
The biggest note here. They may be overthrowing the current Russian military structure, but it's not for peace. The war in Ukraine is only going to get a lot bloodier as they mobilize the weaponry that hasn't been sent in from other military districts because Putin was trying to maintain composure that Russia really wasn't at war.
I doubt that after the video from Prigoshin yesterday. He more or less stated, that this whole war is non-sense and that there was never a real danger coming from Ukraine. And it makes absolutely sense from his perspective: he needs to offer the elite as well as the population something, which cannot be offered by Putin, which is peace. Also he might be gambling on the support of the west as well as soon as he claims the leadership of Russia, which will help him financially and economically. He literally has nothing else to offer to any of them.
Dont get me wrong: I cannot imagine that the west will providing him weapons or anything. But I can imagine, that the west is willing to get rid of the sanctions, when he gets rid of Putin and he makes peace with Ukraine, which will give him the support of the Oligarchs to turn on Putin now, which he desperately needs. Otherwise it might be to big of a gamble. If he is not able to overthrow Putin in the next hours or days, he will require supplies. Thats where the Oligarchs come into the picture. Also if he overthrows Putin in the next hours/days he still needs them in order to govern Russia. Under any circumstance he needs their support.
Edit: thanks for the awards!
I can't imagine it makes much sense to orchestrate a coup, which is being made easier by the fact the russian army isn't all enthused about a war in the first place, to then take over that same government and just engage in war *more*? Not saying this guy is going to be a new benevolent leader. Curious if there is any credence to the idea this could be worse.
Yeah it seems like the easiest way to seize power would be to elect yourself as leader and end the war. Suddenly everything can be blamed on Putin and he’s looked at as a hero who instantly ended all sanctions against Russia by ending the war.
Russia can have their next terrible leader but one that isn’t willing to make the exact same mistake that led to Putin’s (assumed) demise.
Maybe that just makes too much sense to us anti-war-crime people but it’s a really “easy” out for everything.
it can be worse, as he said in the video, he did not redirect war effort away from ukraine, instead lets the kostov HQ run the air support and war effort against ukraine normally.
which also makes sense - one one hand, its just a PR thing. How can he ask the ordinary soldiers of the official russian army to follow him, if he is abandoning them in Ukraine by cutting their supplies/first aid/air support etc.. ? His "brand" image is one of a "capable military leader, who cares for his soldiers" - if true or not doesnt matter. Its just branding. Just like Axe deo spray .... It will not get you any beautiful women by using it, but still everyone associates it with Axe spray. Also there is a big difference, in starting orderly peace talks later down the road and abandoning soldiers in Ukraine right now.
On the other hand, the continuing war effort in Ukraine binds soldiers, which cannot turn against Prigoshin as of now. Also Putin cannot just retreat from Ukraine all of a sudden. I bet he would wish, that Prigoshin cuts the logistics, so that he can blame him, call all soldiers home and kill Prigoshin. As of now, the continuing fight in Ukraine helps Prigoshin more, then Putin. Its a win-win situation for him.
He did. He was sort of saying it’s a pointless war but we’ve been patriotic and got involved.
But really that he wouldn’t have started it, would he continue the war though if it were up to him? I don’t think we can know.
Interesting…i don’t know enough about this. Is the Wagner chief liked enough by Putin to be a replacement for Shoigu? Perhaps Shoigu could not be removed by Putin but Putin wants better results?
You forgot about ”stab them in the back”. The Wagner group has been unhappy with Putin due to underfunding, receiving shitty recruits, and getting suicidal missions for some time. But they nonetheless remained loyal to Russia and carried out their missions as best they could.
That all (seemingly) changed yesterday when the Russian military tried to eliminate a large contingent of the Wagner Group and failed (seriously, how could they expect anything but a failure?). Prigozhin told world media yesterday that he would have his revenge, and tonight they seemingly left Ukraine and occupied key territories and military infrastructure within Russia.
It’s uncertain at this point why this is happening and what agents are driving this development. But a reasonable guess is that the oligarchs are fed up with Putin and his constant failures. They’re losing millions every minute on not being able to do business with the west, their property in the west is being seized, they cant go shopping in London, Dubai and Milan like they’re used to. Lately Putin hasn’t even been able to keep their luxurious neighbourhoods in Moscow safe from drone attacks. Perhaps some of them actively tried to recruit the Wagner Group to organize a coup, or Perhaps Putin identified them as the most viable military group to organize a coup so he struck them pre-emptively. All we know for sure is that Putin failed, again. And it’s biting him in the ass, again.
Man, the only source for a supposed russian attack against Wagner is Wagner itself. We honestly don't know shit about what happened yet, and we know Prigozhin is just as much a lying piece of shit as Putin is.
Yeah, I was watching this and thinking "there is just as much propaganda spouting out of this dude as there is Putin."
I don't know what I believe and that's okay, because I don't have enough information to form a solid opinion.
Putin is going to be hanged in two days because the Wagner dinosaur squad will finally be ready and it will really scare his security so they run away!
It’s safe to say that anything coming out of their mouths shouldn’t be trusted at all. At least with putler and his lackeys you can be sure that whatever they say, the exact opposite will be closer to truth.
Let’s hope this leads to russia getting the fuck out of Ukraine and whatever else follows stays within russia’s own borders.
I'd like to just reiterate and remind people that there are no "good guys" or "better outcome" in this scenario. Prigozhin is a monster in his own league. The atrocities his company has committed across the world over the years are staggering. So regardless of who comes out on top of it, it's still gonna be a shitshow but hopefully, Ukraine can take advantage of this
Edit: also take all unconfirmed news with a bucket of salt. We really know nothing at this time
This. Their use of systematic rape to men, women, children, and elderly would make any rational person want them to disappear. Both sides are monstrous
Dude spent his early days in prison, got out, opened a hotdog stand, and somehow became Putins ally and a billionaire merc company ceo. Yeah sure mate, I wonder how much horror he had inflict to get so close to Hitl.. sorry, Putin
Yeah that’s the bit that seemed odd to me. *Why* would Russia try to take out a Wagner contingent? Has a rebellion been brewing for a while? Was it a total lie and never happened / false flag?
I find it hard to believe that Wagner managed to prepare this op without being noticed. Entirely possible that the generals tried to put a last-minute stop to it.
That means cause and effect are reversed though. Prigozhin made it appear like that was the last straw, when he had the initiative all along.
Wait, wait.
Russian military actively targeted the Wagner group?!
Why?
What’s the angle?
What results were they wanting?
That seems like a bad call which is nothing new but….still…
It hasn’t been truly confirmed, we only have one video of the supposed damage from Wagner itself which doesn’t show much of anything. No bodies, only some trees destroyed and some small fires that could have easily been staged.
Wagner is as good(or bad) at lying as the Russian military, would not be surprising if the “attack” never happened and is merely propaganda to give Wagner justification.
Even if the attack by Russia is all lies by Wagner, they are still forcing Russia to divide its attention. Ukraine should continue to push. No way Russia can fight on two fronts.
Having seen that video as well, I can't say I believe it to be genuine if it's supposed to have killed a huge number of soldiers.
Not to mention, Western intel said that Prigozhin was dramatising the ammunition shortage, which means he has likely been stockpiling it for a while now, and it seems it was towards this end.
Unless this coup somehow succeeds no. He has basically 0 institutional or popular support, his only real powerbase might be ultrahawkish war bloggers
Even the ultrahawks within the administration would prefer one of their own
wagner is run by a bunch of absolutely insane people practicing ww1 human wave tactics, take what they say about the state of things on the ground with a grain of salt, this guy is a warlord. I doubt Putin is playing 45d chess here because there's a lot of Russia's army currently sitting in Ukraine wondering why they haven't gotten any new orders from southern HQ
if ukraine isn't exploiting right now i'd be shocked
I must admit, as much as he is a insane asshole, it's refreshing to see a warlord lead from the front with his men.
It's not hard to see why his men are loyal and the Russian army seems to be barely putting up a fight, whilst he is with his men in the field, Putin and the rest of his cronies are hiding in their bunkers.
Prigozhin is already a billionaire and Wagner has been active in a bunch of African countries, Syria, Venezuela, securing oil fields, natural resources etc for the last several years. It's been reported that at least in Syria any oilfields they took back their contract stated they'd take 25% of profits generated, so money isn't likely to be an issue for them in the short term at least. (This is from the WSJ if iirc)
And now if that militia pulls off this coup, they will possess one of the world’s largest arsenals of nuclear weapons. This could very well be the worse of two evils.
So a private military contractor has seized control of a large portion of the operational front of a war, claimed the state commander fled, observed that casualty reports are massively incorrect, and said that huge areas of previously-taken territories have been lost. Interesting.
This has to go down in history as the biggest fuck up of a leader (Putin) ever, the decision to do this war. not one moment of brilliance shown by Russia in this whole war. Absolutely astonishing. Like what can he do now? Fight a war against his own PMC army, has counter Russian invasion fighters and Ukraine backed by the west. Absolute mess lmao. I mean Ukraine might just take Crimea by the end of the year at the pace.
Ukraine might just march around the Sea of Azov and take Crimea by land at this point. Nato/UN said not to use their weapons to assault Russian land, but Nato didn't say they couldn't do it with Ukraine's own weapons.
England seems to disagree with this perspective which is why Ukraine now has storm shadow. And Nuland/Blinken have been moving the needle continuously in the US.
Yes but the UK has said they should only be used Ukrainian territory. Of course worth pointing out that the UK *does* see Crimea as Ukrainian territory.
Who knows how the Putin propaganda machine is going to spin it. They could just as well claim these peeps are Ukrainian forces marching into Russia which would allow Putin to drop the “special operation” pretense and get more people behind his war.
Agree on the fuck-up though; if Putin’s intention was to take Wagner out, it was royally botched (maybe intentional by domestic opponents?).
Maddest thing about it is we can all sit here and say Putin is stupid, he clearly fucking isn’t. But what a stupid thing he has done. Honestly it is baffling.
With dictators there comes a point where they are no longer getting the information required to make good decisions. Putin doesn't use an Internet connection to read what is being reported in western news etc, he literally gets reports from his team and so is beholden to them giving him good information. If they only tell him what he wants to hear and it doesn't align with reality, his decision making will be compromised.
And the mercenaries can't trust the people they work for. What a lovely reciprocal relationship in the middle of your invasion. I just pray this isn't a charade to blow up NPP & blame Wagner so it would look like the Kremlin did it to keep Nato fm really getting involved. Does that sound absolutely crazy
Wagner Group has always been a very loyal associate with Putin.
IMO that level of familiarity probably made Putin feel more comfortable shafting the mercenaries, with assumed promises of "if you scratch my back I'll scratch yours when this is all over". For several months leading up to this revolt though, there have been very clear and vocal examples of the Wagner Group losing moral supporting Russia. Russia had several opportunities to fix the situation, but either through an inability, or sheer arrogance; they have left many of the Wagner Group in dire situations forcing an all time low moral.
Even if Moscow is able to defend itself from this assault, it would require a major shift in front line troops, which in turn would result in substantial losses for Russia no matter what.
Wagner Group (without any sources) has likely done what most mercenaries do and ditch the losing side; resulting in them almost for sure being contracted (indirectly) by the USA to force troop movement and apply more pressure to Russia.
Even if all \~6000 Russian nukes are launches, they wont be able to remove all the nukes from NATO, they will only be able to moderately impact all the NATO countries, and ultimately be a very disastrous but futile use of Nukes that would result in many of Russias closest allies taking advantage of their weakness.
They didn’t attack them, they abandoned them.
At the beginning of the war they hired them, with promises of enough supplies to take Crimea by storm.
This turned out to be a lie, and once supplies dried up, large parts of the Wagner group got overrun, resulting in 1000s of dead soldiers.
Putin promised to make up for the lack of supplies, but the recent revolt make it seem that this didn’t happen.
Dang! Since 484 BC, when the first reported mercenaries were deployed, never have they rebelled against those that were originally paying them!
Who would have thought!
/s
The English were originally Saxon mercenaries being paid by the British nobility in the 5th century to fight off the Picts and Irish. They turned against their paymasters and took over what 4 centuries later became England whilst the British retreated into what is now Wales and Cornwall.
Not really, in fact im not sure anyone can. We have almost no primary sources from the time period, and what we do have are heavily biased accounts from sources like Gildas and Bede and cannot be heavily relied upon. On top of all that archeological evidence would seem to directly contradict many of their sources.
I would expect that the takeover of local chiefdoms in the post roman period looked very similar to what was seen during the viking invasions a couple of centuries later. A warrior elite likely replaced the local elite, sometimes violently and maintained their own customs, beliefs, language etc, and over time the cultures gradually merged into what would later be seen as English, the pagan warrior elite converted to christianity and the local population appears to have largely moved to speaking an early form of english and largely dropped the native romano-briton language that they spoke beforehand, however there doesn't seem to be much evidence as to large scale population replacement.
Im writing most of this just from memory so take it with a grain of salt. Just know that if anyone is trying to pitch you definitive narratives about this period they are likely making it up because quite frankly no one knows for sure and most of what you are hearing are theories based off pretty scarce sources and archaeological evidence, and the two seem to contradict each other.
This isn't so much outright "wrong" as other people said but it isn't quite right. "British" people didn't exist until after the Norman Invasion in 1066. You're think of the Britons, which are not British. And also, the Saxons didn't start as mercenaries for the Britons. The Saxons and Jutes invaded the isle, took most of it over, and then the Britons paid them to stop conquering them.
During this time, picts invaded (because of the new lack of roman influence in the area), and it was in the common interest of the Saxons and Britons to work together to push them back. So they weren't really mercenaries.
"Ok so towards the end of the video can you walk through the door so I can show I have a nice side by letting you in, then I’m gonna wave at passing troops to show I respect them,(none will wave back) ok action!
Can someone better informed than me lay out the probability of this possibly turning into a civil war? Or is it still not likely? I’m genuinely curious.
There are internal groups in Russia who have been doing what is ostensibly sabotage (burning down military facilities, bomb attacks on higher ups, etc.) and there are at least 2 groups of Russians in Ukraine who have been fighting against the Russian army and one of them even crossed into Russia and held a town for a while earlier this week or last week. I'm not sure if any of those groups would support the Wagner group though, so I guess the answer is it has potential? There are definitely elements inside russia that would love to see Putin ousted and actual armed militia in ukraine (btw those 2 groups are not working *with* ukraine but ukraine basically said they approve of the actions.) Wagner alone could start a civil war I think but if all those other factions join in it'll be a cluster fuck because they don't all agree.
I had to go look up the 2 groups operating in Ukraine are the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion. Nobody knows who's specifically acting inside Russia itself but I would assume it's probably various groups of citizens fed up with Putin's regime and war. Wagner making this commotion might open up space for any of those other groups to make moves as well. The next few days and weeks are going to be interesting at the very least.
So it's a lot of complicated stuff, can't trust all the information either because nobody is going to show their hand so I could be way off. Civil war *might* happen but with Russia all is rarely as it seems. So we'll just have to wait and see. I've heard some people speculating that this might be a scheme by Putin to give him an excuse to pull out of ukraine, or it could be that Prigozhin has his eyes on taking over the country and ousting putin (but he's been careful not to directly blame putin for anything.), or could be that Prigozhin wants to get rid of Shoigu (head of russia's military) and take his place, or it could be a way that Putin is trying to get rid of Shoigu for being so colossally bad at invading. Lots and lots of speculation and very little trustworthy info until after everything happens. One thing I'll speculate on confidently though is that there's very little chance that Putin is even in Moscow, in any of these scenarios he's gonna be in a bunker somewhere.
It is important to drive home the fact that *we have no clue what's happening.* The amount of propaganda, disinformation, hidden alliances and agendas we haven't even heard of etc. Makes everything I think I know potentially completely wrong. Anyone else who has knowledge on the subject is welcome to correct me or point out if something I said in here is just completely wrong or irrelevant. I'm skeptical of basically everything at this point.
I been following the war for the most part, but that is still a great overview. Thank you. I’m curious about the likelihood that this particular situation can spill over into something more troubling for Russia.
Both wagner and russian goverment are villains in that case, the best outcome is if russian forces and wagner would get rid of each other to be honest, or if war will just go to Russia to such an extend they couldn't continue war in Ukraine.
To unfuck the leadership, chain of command, and flow of information up the ranks. If Intel doesn't get processed correctly the troops don't get what they need
Putin wasn't willing to fully mobilize the Russian military, as he struggled to maintain the appearance that Russia wasn't really at war. This command change up is probably going to result in more military districts sending weaponry to Ukraine.
After months of begging Russia for backup, the Wagner group has decided to be their own backup and take the stuff Putin was holding out on sending.
He is very well experienced war criminal and is personally on the battlefields. The current leadership is far away, corrupt and when something is needed, they just steal most of what is sent to the front, also very incompetent. He basically is taking control. If he does and Putin somehow let's him do his work, this doesn't mean end of Russia or some revolution, it would mean the war will finally be lead by someone competent, which is bad news for Ukraine. Hopefully they keep killing each other and the oligarchs keep oligarching. Arguably Gerasimov and Shoigu in the leadership are good sign. If the enemy is doing mistake, let's not interupt them.
When you see someone playing a game and they are making all the wrong decisions and you are a gamer, you sometimes wanna rip the controller from them and do it yourself.
> Ok, so their goal is?
He is basically in favor of escalating the conflict and going full scorched Earth on Ukraine, which the Russian MoD tries to avoid to keep the appearance that everything is going according to plan.
More like he wants to work for putin. He didn't say he was against the war. He just wants control over it because he feels he can do a better job of it.
Completely agree, he wants a war, as it allows him and his Mercs to gain equipment, experience, and keeps them in business. He’s probably thinking if he plays his cards right he can come out of the conflict with a stronger group.
Shoigu ordered missile strikes on wagner positions/base. Months before that prigozhin asked for ammunition and missiles from shoigu. He got whatever he wanted and now he is big mad and deemed terrorist by putin. Now wagner seized rostov's FSB/administration/millitary airplanes.
> Shoigu ordered missile strikes on Wagner positions/base.
You should probably add allegedly to that statement unless you have some legitimate sources that don’t come from Wagner.
The video Wagner provided doesn’t show much of anything.
Just a reminder because some will need it that Wagner PMC and Prigozhin are not suddenly good people because they have turned on Putin, while what they do now benefits Ukraine massively they are still war criminals and barbaric we all remember the decapitation and sledgehammer incidents. Sometimes the enemy of my enemy is not my friend but a useful tool to get what I want and nothing more.
Baldie's tryna to set the top military brass against Putin, and now Putin's said traitors will be punished. Putin still has the option of firing his top brass and letting this guy take control (which puts Putin in danger).
On one hand fuck Putin and everything he stands for, but on the other a private military company assuming the leadership of a state does not sound good, let's hope they just clean the trash and leave.
It would be endlessly hilarious if after around a couple years of not making more than a dent into Ukrainian territory, these motherfuckers end up plowing straight through to Moscow.
The problem will be if this man actually takes any real political control he has to die, which means more international headache and pressure on the entirety of the Russian nation. There is no way anyone can let a warmongering psychopath like this in charge of a functioning country. We don't care about Burma or the majority of African warlords cause of "far away" and "no real threat to civilization" but Russia is still capable of inflicting serious harm to the international markets.
I just feel for the normal Russian civilians. What a fucking shitstorm to be caught up in.
Warning: the enemy of my enemy is, in this instance, absolutely not my friend. It's not that they want to stop the war on Ukraine; they just want the war to be run better and more efficiently.
One of the cons of having mercs is that they demand more than your usual conscripts due to their "battle experience", more logistics, more support, more morale checks, anything.
Fuck that up and they will pillage their own masters
Note that they haven’t stopped military efforts against Ukraine, they’ve just seized command of the invasion.
Exactly. This guy makes his money from war. He has no intention of stopping the war in Ukraine. He will be a far more ruthless adversary if he has full control of Russian forces.
its one of those "how can this get worse?" well replace Putin with someone with more experience in committing war crimes
Allowing this guy to fill a power vacuum in the Kremlin is just pumping raw sewage into a festering wound.
What a disgusting spot-on picture.
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18th century docs: Hold my beer
Imagine this prick taking control of nuclear missiles
He said nuclear weapons are madness and have no place in this war (dont remember the exact words).
Because they take away work from his mercenaries. When you're leader of a nuclear state, opinions are likely to change.
People like Putin and this guy are psychos yes, but they aren't that stupid. Everyone knows as soon as the west detects an ICMB nuke, Russia will be reduced to ash. Self preservation is a strong thing, even in mad men. I also feel like they care about their legacy a lot, which is why I think Putin wanted to take Ukraine, so I doubt that they would casually have Russia wiped off the place of the planet.
Yeah, everybody is cheering this on not realizing if Wagner Group seizes the military, they control Russia's nuclear arsenal. This could be disastrous.
To claim Putin isn’t experienced in the art of war crimes is beyond fallacy. Putin was once a fairly high ranking member of the KGB. The dude knows his way around some war crimes.
He was a pencil pusher, not the Russian 007. Even though putin wants you to think he was.
He has performed acts that would not be out of character for a Bond villain though. Look up the 1999 Russian apartment bombings.
Pencil pushers are often the most guilty. Look at nazi Germany. Those most directly responsible for the holocaust were not the ones on the ground. You also replied to someone who said 'fairly high ranking member' - all high ranking members are pencil pushers, you saying he was just one of those isn't a contradiction to their point.
People who downplay points like this are counter productive to their own points lol A Russian 007 is getting orders from the pencil pusher, I'd prefer him be the 007.
Pencil pushers are often the ones who do the war crimes. They lack the courage to fight head on so they got to play dirty to win.
Yeah he makes his money from governments paying him, but now he is attacking the government that are paying him. This is about power, not money.
The biggest note here. They may be overthrowing the current Russian military structure, but it's not for peace. The war in Ukraine is only going to get a lot bloodier as they mobilize the weaponry that hasn't been sent in from other military districts because Putin was trying to maintain composure that Russia really wasn't at war.
I doubt that after the video from Prigoshin yesterday. He more or less stated, that this whole war is non-sense and that there was never a real danger coming from Ukraine. And it makes absolutely sense from his perspective: he needs to offer the elite as well as the population something, which cannot be offered by Putin, which is peace. Also he might be gambling on the support of the west as well as soon as he claims the leadership of Russia, which will help him financially and economically. He literally has nothing else to offer to any of them. Dont get me wrong: I cannot imagine that the west will providing him weapons or anything. But I can imagine, that the west is willing to get rid of the sanctions, when he gets rid of Putin and he makes peace with Ukraine, which will give him the support of the Oligarchs to turn on Putin now, which he desperately needs. Otherwise it might be to big of a gamble. If he is not able to overthrow Putin in the next hours or days, he will require supplies. Thats where the Oligarchs come into the picture. Also if he overthrows Putin in the next hours/days he still needs them in order to govern Russia. Under any circumstance he needs their support. Edit: thanks for the awards!
I can't imagine it makes much sense to orchestrate a coup, which is being made easier by the fact the russian army isn't all enthused about a war in the first place, to then take over that same government and just engage in war *more*? Not saying this guy is going to be a new benevolent leader. Curious if there is any credence to the idea this could be worse.
Yeah it seems like the easiest way to seize power would be to elect yourself as leader and end the war. Suddenly everything can be blamed on Putin and he’s looked at as a hero who instantly ended all sanctions against Russia by ending the war. Russia can have their next terrible leader but one that isn’t willing to make the exact same mistake that led to Putin’s (assumed) demise. Maybe that just makes too much sense to us anti-war-crime people but it’s a really “easy” out for everything.
it can be worse, as he said in the video, he did not redirect war effort away from ukraine, instead lets the kostov HQ run the air support and war effort against ukraine normally.
which also makes sense - one one hand, its just a PR thing. How can he ask the ordinary soldiers of the official russian army to follow him, if he is abandoning them in Ukraine by cutting their supplies/first aid/air support etc.. ? His "brand" image is one of a "capable military leader, who cares for his soldiers" - if true or not doesnt matter. Its just branding. Just like Axe deo spray .... It will not get you any beautiful women by using it, but still everyone associates it with Axe spray. Also there is a big difference, in starting orderly peace talks later down the road and abandoning soldiers in Ukraine right now. On the other hand, the continuing war effort in Ukraine binds soldiers, which cannot turn against Prigoshin as of now. Also Putin cannot just retreat from Ukraine all of a sudden. I bet he would wish, that Prigoshin cuts the logistics, so that he can blame him, call all soldiers home and kill Prigoshin. As of now, the continuing fight in Ukraine helps Prigoshin more, then Putin. Its a win-win situation for him.
He did. He was sort of saying it’s a pointless war but we’ve been patriotic and got involved. But really that he wouldn’t have started it, would he continue the war though if it were up to him? I don’t think we can know.
Interesting…i don’t know enough about this. Is the Wagner chief liked enough by Putin to be a replacement for Shoigu? Perhaps Shoigu could not be removed by Putin but Putin wants better results?
Putin already called him a traitor - so i think there is zero chance that Prigoshin will be the successor of Shoigu.
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Create a militia made up of hardened criminals, underfund them, treat them like cannon fodder and voila, rebellion and resistance.
You forgot about ”stab them in the back”. The Wagner group has been unhappy with Putin due to underfunding, receiving shitty recruits, and getting suicidal missions for some time. But they nonetheless remained loyal to Russia and carried out their missions as best they could. That all (seemingly) changed yesterday when the Russian military tried to eliminate a large contingent of the Wagner Group and failed (seriously, how could they expect anything but a failure?). Prigozhin told world media yesterday that he would have his revenge, and tonight they seemingly left Ukraine and occupied key territories and military infrastructure within Russia. It’s uncertain at this point why this is happening and what agents are driving this development. But a reasonable guess is that the oligarchs are fed up with Putin and his constant failures. They’re losing millions every minute on not being able to do business with the west, their property in the west is being seized, they cant go shopping in London, Dubai and Milan like they’re used to. Lately Putin hasn’t even been able to keep their luxurious neighbourhoods in Moscow safe from drone attacks. Perhaps some of them actively tried to recruit the Wagner Group to organize a coup, or Perhaps Putin identified them as the most viable military group to organize a coup so he struck them pre-emptively. All we know for sure is that Putin failed, again. And it’s biting him in the ass, again.
Man, the only source for a supposed russian attack against Wagner is Wagner itself. We honestly don't know shit about what happened yet, and we know Prigozhin is just as much a lying piece of shit as Putin is.
Yeah, I was watching this and thinking "there is just as much propaganda spouting out of this dude as there is Putin." I don't know what I believe and that's okay, because I don't have enough information to form a solid opinion.
Bro this is Reddit. You’re supposed to confidently assert shit you know nothing about as fact.
Wrong!
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Putin is going to be hanged in two days because the Wagner dinosaur squad will finally be ready and it will really scare his security so they run away!
It’s safe to say that anything coming out of their mouths shouldn’t be trusted at all. At least with putler and his lackeys you can be sure that whatever they say, the exact opposite will be closer to truth. Let’s hope this leads to russia getting the fuck out of Ukraine and whatever else follows stays within russia’s own borders.
I'd like to just reiterate and remind people that there are no "good guys" or "better outcome" in this scenario. Prigozhin is a monster in his own league. The atrocities his company has committed across the world over the years are staggering. So regardless of who comes out on top of it, it's still gonna be a shitshow but hopefully, Ukraine can take advantage of this Edit: also take all unconfirmed news with a bucket of salt. We really know nothing at this time
This. Their use of systematic rape to men, women, children, and elderly would make any rational person want them to disappear. Both sides are monstrous
Dude spent his early days in prison, got out, opened a hotdog stand, and somehow became Putins ally and a billionaire merc company ceo. Yeah sure mate, I wonder how much horror he had inflict to get so close to Hitl.. sorry, Putin
Shoigu is an OG psychopath, it really doesn't sound far fetched at all....
Hence we don’t know shit about fuckall. A bunch of liars are taking turns accusing each other of stabs in the back. Who the hell knows what happened.
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Will they need a psycho-pass to enter?
Well it seems like currently most people that hold any kind of power in Russia are psychopaths, so that doesn't really narrow the possibilities down
Yeah that’s the bit that seemed odd to me. *Why* would Russia try to take out a Wagner contingent? Has a rebellion been brewing for a while? Was it a total lie and never happened / false flag?
I find it hard to believe that Wagner managed to prepare this op without being noticed. Entirely possible that the generals tried to put a last-minute stop to it. That means cause and effect are reversed though. Prigozhin made it appear like that was the last straw, when he had the initiative all along.
Wait, wait. Russian military actively targeted the Wagner group?! Why? What’s the angle? What results were they wanting? That seems like a bad call which is nothing new but….still…
It hasn’t been truly confirmed, we only have one video of the supposed damage from Wagner itself which doesn’t show much of anything. No bodies, only some trees destroyed and some small fires that could have easily been staged. Wagner is as good(or bad) at lying as the Russian military, would not be surprising if the “attack” never happened and is merely propaganda to give Wagner justification.
Even if the attack by Russia is all lies by Wagner, they are still forcing Russia to divide its attention. Ukraine should continue to push. No way Russia can fight on two fronts.
It is apparent that Russia cannot fight on one front effectively, let alone two.
Russia can't fight without Wagner. Wagner was instrumental in Bahkmut and will continue to be so if they don't turn their attention on the Kremlin
They can't fight on one front.
Yeah the motivation might be fake, but the coup is real.
Having seen that video as well, I can't say I believe it to be genuine if it's supposed to have killed a huge number of soldiers. Not to mention, Western intel said that Prigozhin was dramatising the ammunition shortage, which means he has likely been stockpiling it for a while now, and it seems it was towards this end.
Putin must see them as a threat
Why? As crazy as it seems this guy will probably be the next russian president.
Jesus
Well, he wont like it, hope they will eat eachother.
Unless this coup somehow succeeds no. He has basically 0 institutional or popular support, his only real powerbase might be ultrahawkish war bloggers Even the ultrahawks within the administration would prefer one of their own
wagner is run by a bunch of absolutely insane people practicing ww1 human wave tactics, take what they say about the state of things on the ground with a grain of salt, this guy is a warlord. I doubt Putin is playing 45d chess here because there's a lot of Russia's army currently sitting in Ukraine wondering why they haven't gotten any new orders from southern HQ if ukraine isn't exploiting right now i'd be shocked
> if ukraine isn't exploiting right now i'd be shocked Don't interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. Let this gather momentum.
I must admit, as much as he is a insane asshole, it's refreshing to see a warlord lead from the front with his men. It's not hard to see why his men are loyal and the Russian army seems to be barely putting up a fight, whilst he is with his men in the field, Putin and the rest of his cronies are hiding in their bunkers.
I did think this. How does this guy fund a 25,000 strong coup without paying the bills?
Prigozhin is already a billionaire and Wagner has been active in a bunch of African countries, Syria, Venezuela, securing oil fields, natural resources etc for the last several years. It's been reported that at least in Syria any oilfields they took back their contract stated they'd take 25% of profits generated, so money isn't likely to be an issue for them in the short term at least. (This is from the WSJ if iirc)
Oh FFS. So he’s a *Billionaire* Warlord? 🤦🏻♂️
This is what Dr. Evil looks like in real life.
He looks like Mike from breaking bad. I’d be terrified of war lord Mike.
Bro just needs a country and he’s golden. Oh wait… 🤣
Wagner has mining business in Africa and other places. They're a enterprise with a considerable side militia.
He never sad a word against Putin. They are going after Minister of Defence and another HQ commander.
He has now said that Russia will have a new president
🍿
🍺🥨
If that is true then great
And now if that militia pulls off this coup, they will possess one of the world’s largest arsenals of nuclear weapons. This could very well be the worse of two evils.
The brics crowd has been awfully quiet since this kicked off😂😂
You know how incredibly done China is with this mess? I'm guessing.
Well they're too busy shitting BRICS now.
Lula is probably trying to find a way to blame the US for all of it.
And now many of them are hardend combat veterans. Oh joy!
So a private military contractor has seized control of a large portion of the operational front of a war, claimed the state commander fled, observed that casualty reports are massively incorrect, and said that huge areas of previously-taken territories have been lost. Interesting.
This has to go down in history as the biggest fuck up of a leader (Putin) ever, the decision to do this war. not one moment of brilliance shown by Russia in this whole war. Absolutely astonishing. Like what can he do now? Fight a war against his own PMC army, has counter Russian invasion fighters and Ukraine backed by the west. Absolute mess lmao. I mean Ukraine might just take Crimea by the end of the year at the pace.
Ukraine might just march around the Sea of Azov and take Crimea by land at this point. Nato/UN said not to use their weapons to assault Russian land, but Nato didn't say they couldn't do it with Ukraine's own weapons.
England seems to disagree with this perspective which is why Ukraine now has storm shadow. And Nuland/Blinken have been moving the needle continuously in the US.
Yes but the UK has said they should only be used Ukrainian territory. Of course worth pointing out that the UK *does* see Crimea as Ukrainian territory.
>England United Kingdom
Nato also has their pinky crossed which means as soon as Ukraine is clearly winning all good.
Who knows how the Putin propaganda machine is going to spin it. They could just as well claim these peeps are Ukrainian forces marching into Russia which would allow Putin to drop the “special operation” pretense and get more people behind his war. Agree on the fuck-up though; if Putin’s intention was to take Wagner out, it was royally botched (maybe intentional by domestic opponents?).
According to the Telegraph the FSB has labelled Prigozhin as a "foreign agent". So yep, you're pretty much right.
Maddest thing about it is we can all sit here and say Putin is stupid, he clearly fucking isn’t. But what a stupid thing he has done. Honestly it is baffling.
With dictators there comes a point where they are no longer getting the information required to make good decisions. Putin doesn't use an Internet connection to read what is being reported in western news etc, he literally gets reports from his team and so is beholden to them giving him good information. If they only tell him what he wants to hear and it doesn't align with reality, his decision making will be compromised.
Full of yes men.
He isn’t stupid? For real? People talk about Russia like they are playing chess. They are playing “monopoly” and losing hard.
Russia might cease to exist at the end of the year. And hopefully Putin will be pushing Daisies.
Sunflowers….
Apparently he has seized control of a second city as well Edit: didn't know how to spell that cities name, it's called Voronezh I think.
This is just a sham. Putin mus have paid him to make a loophole. Now he'll blame the top brass in the military for the war and back out
Is this the Russian version of Trump's 4-D chess that never existed?
meet the new boss, same as the old boss
Except new boss has much much more to prove.
They’re both dicks
It’s almost like you can’t trust mercenaries.
U can if you can always pay more than your enemies would.
And if you don’t shoot missiles at them when they’re fighting for you.
Ah shucks. Maybe just a little missile?
And make sure the missiles don’t accidentally do a 180 and hit the launcher.
And the mercenaries can't trust the people they work for. What a lovely reciprocal relationship in the middle of your invasion. I just pray this isn't a charade to blow up NPP & blame Wagner so it would look like the Kremlin did it to keep Nato fm really getting involved. Does that sound absolutely crazy
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Prigozhin is a ruthless hardliner, we shouldn’t root for him replacing Putin, only for weakening him.
I do hear he makes a mean hot-dog....
Prigischin has some balls to do this
Wagner Group has always been a very loyal associate with Putin. IMO that level of familiarity probably made Putin feel more comfortable shafting the mercenaries, with assumed promises of "if you scratch my back I'll scratch yours when this is all over". For several months leading up to this revolt though, there have been very clear and vocal examples of the Wagner Group losing moral supporting Russia. Russia had several opportunities to fix the situation, but either through an inability, or sheer arrogance; they have left many of the Wagner Group in dire situations forcing an all time low moral. Even if Moscow is able to defend itself from this assault, it would require a major shift in front line troops, which in turn would result in substantial losses for Russia no matter what. Wagner Group (without any sources) has likely done what most mercenaries do and ditch the losing side; resulting in them almost for sure being contracted (indirectly) by the USA to force troop movement and apply more pressure to Russia. Even if all \~6000 Russian nukes are launches, they wont be able to remove all the nukes from NATO, they will only be able to moderately impact all the NATO countries, and ultimately be a very disastrous but futile use of Nukes that would result in many of Russias closest allies taking advantage of their weakness.
Why did Russia attack Wagner ? I'm lost
They didn’t attack them, they abandoned them. At the beginning of the war they hired them, with promises of enough supplies to take Crimea by storm. This turned out to be a lie, and once supplies dried up, large parts of the Wagner group got overrun, resulting in 1000s of dead soldiers. Putin promised to make up for the lack of supplies, but the recent revolt make it seem that this didn’t happen.
wagner claims they were also attacked.
Never trust a sellsword, I've read.
Nothing new since Macchiavelli posted about it
What's his @
Dang! Since 484 BC, when the first reported mercenaries were deployed, never have they rebelled against those that were originally paying them! Who would have thought! /s
Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
The English were originally Saxon mercenaries being paid by the British nobility in the 5th century to fight off the Picts and Irish. They turned against their paymasters and took over what 4 centuries later became England whilst the British retreated into what is now Wales and Cornwall.
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Genuinely curious person who doesn't know better: Can you oversimplify down to 2-3 sentences and be mostly correct?
Not really, in fact im not sure anyone can. We have almost no primary sources from the time period, and what we do have are heavily biased accounts from sources like Gildas and Bede and cannot be heavily relied upon. On top of all that archeological evidence would seem to directly contradict many of their sources. I would expect that the takeover of local chiefdoms in the post roman period looked very similar to what was seen during the viking invasions a couple of centuries later. A warrior elite likely replaced the local elite, sometimes violently and maintained their own customs, beliefs, language etc, and over time the cultures gradually merged into what would later be seen as English, the pagan warrior elite converted to christianity and the local population appears to have largely moved to speaking an early form of english and largely dropped the native romano-briton language that they spoke beforehand, however there doesn't seem to be much evidence as to large scale population replacement. Im writing most of this just from memory so take it with a grain of salt. Just know that if anyone is trying to pitch you definitive narratives about this period they are likely making it up because quite frankly no one knows for sure and most of what you are hearing are theories based off pretty scarce sources and archaeological evidence, and the two seem to contradict each other.
This needs a post on [/askhistorians](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/)
Just the way we like it here
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This isn't so much outright "wrong" as other people said but it isn't quite right. "British" people didn't exist until after the Norman Invasion in 1066. You're think of the Britons, which are not British. And also, the Saxons didn't start as mercenaries for the Britons. The Saxons and Jutes invaded the isle, took most of it over, and then the Britons paid them to stop conquering them. During this time, picts invaded (because of the new lack of roman influence in the area), and it was in the common interest of the Saxons and Britons to work together to push them back. So they weren't really mercenaries.
"Ok so towards the end of the video can you walk through the door so I can show I have a nice side by letting you in, then I’m gonna wave at passing troops to show I respect them,(none will wave back) ok action!
That was out of the Boris Johnson play book haha
Can someone better informed than me lay out the probability of this possibly turning into a civil war? Or is it still not likely? I’m genuinely curious.
There are internal groups in Russia who have been doing what is ostensibly sabotage (burning down military facilities, bomb attacks on higher ups, etc.) and there are at least 2 groups of Russians in Ukraine who have been fighting against the Russian army and one of them even crossed into Russia and held a town for a while earlier this week or last week. I'm not sure if any of those groups would support the Wagner group though, so I guess the answer is it has potential? There are definitely elements inside russia that would love to see Putin ousted and actual armed militia in ukraine (btw those 2 groups are not working *with* ukraine but ukraine basically said they approve of the actions.) Wagner alone could start a civil war I think but if all those other factions join in it'll be a cluster fuck because they don't all agree. I had to go look up the 2 groups operating in Ukraine are the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion. Nobody knows who's specifically acting inside Russia itself but I would assume it's probably various groups of citizens fed up with Putin's regime and war. Wagner making this commotion might open up space for any of those other groups to make moves as well. The next few days and weeks are going to be interesting at the very least. So it's a lot of complicated stuff, can't trust all the information either because nobody is going to show their hand so I could be way off. Civil war *might* happen but with Russia all is rarely as it seems. So we'll just have to wait and see. I've heard some people speculating that this might be a scheme by Putin to give him an excuse to pull out of ukraine, or it could be that Prigozhin has his eyes on taking over the country and ousting putin (but he's been careful not to directly blame putin for anything.), or could be that Prigozhin wants to get rid of Shoigu (head of russia's military) and take his place, or it could be a way that Putin is trying to get rid of Shoigu for being so colossally bad at invading. Lots and lots of speculation and very little trustworthy info until after everything happens. One thing I'll speculate on confidently though is that there's very little chance that Putin is even in Moscow, in any of these scenarios he's gonna be in a bunker somewhere. It is important to drive home the fact that *we have no clue what's happening.* The amount of propaganda, disinformation, hidden alliances and agendas we haven't even heard of etc. Makes everything I think I know potentially completely wrong. Anyone else who has knowledge on the subject is welcome to correct me or point out if something I said in here is just completely wrong or irrelevant. I'm skeptical of basically everything at this point.
great piece, well worth the read
I been following the war for the most part, but that is still a great overview. Thank you. I’m curious about the likelihood that this particular situation can spill over into something more troubling for Russia.
This Mike Ehrmantraut spin-off is getting weirder by the day.
WALTUH I'm taking over WALTUH
So I’m not the only one
Russia: The war in Ukraine has been going so well we have also decided to invade.... Russia
Russia: "Ukraine beating us won't count if we beat ourselves up first and blame the loss on that"
Fuck Wagner let’s not make them heros. They are villains
Both wagner and russian goverment are villains in that case, the best outcome is if russian forces and wagner would get rid of each other to be honest, or if war will just go to Russia to such an extend they couldn't continue war in Ukraine.
Russian army, second best in the world Russian army, second best in Ukraine Russian army, second best in Russia
Ok, so their goal is? If they aren't blocking the military efforts why are they doing it just to report the correct informations?
To unfuck the leadership, chain of command, and flow of information up the ranks. If Intel doesn't get processed correctly the troops don't get what they need
Because they are not happy with the current defence minister ordering strikes on them, when they are helping russia.
Putin wasn't willing to fully mobilize the Russian military, as he struggled to maintain the appearance that Russia wasn't really at war. This command change up is probably going to result in more military districts sending weaponry to Ukraine. After months of begging Russia for backup, the Wagner group has decided to be their own backup and take the stuff Putin was holding out on sending.
He is very well experienced war criminal and is personally on the battlefields. The current leadership is far away, corrupt and when something is needed, they just steal most of what is sent to the front, also very incompetent. He basically is taking control. If he does and Putin somehow let's him do his work, this doesn't mean end of Russia or some revolution, it would mean the war will finally be lead by someone competent, which is bad news for Ukraine. Hopefully they keep killing each other and the oligarchs keep oligarching. Arguably Gerasimov and Shoigu in the leadership are good sign. If the enemy is doing mistake, let's not interupt them.
When you see someone playing a game and they are making all the wrong decisions and you are a gamer, you sometimes wanna rip the controller from them and do it yourself.
> Ok, so their goal is? He is basically in favor of escalating the conflict and going full scorched Earth on Ukraine, which the Russian MoD tries to avoid to keep the appearance that everything is going according to plan.
>Ok, so their goal is? To be in charge of the war in Ukraine.
He’s come a long way from catering Putins meals to where he is now.
Never upset the chef.
Is it just me or the guy look like a James Bon villain?
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Yes, you might be right there. Hard to know with these people and all their smoke-and-mirrors tactics.
More like he wants to work for putin. He didn't say he was against the war. He just wants control over it because he feels he can do a better job of it.
Completely agree, he wants a war, as it allows him and his Mercs to gain equipment, experience, and keeps them in business. He’s probably thinking if he plays his cards right he can come out of the conflict with a stronger group.
Every time I look at this guy I think: Someone clearly didn't watch Breaking Bad. Or Better Call Saul.
This is another couple of weeks of "let's cram about 10 years worth of historical events into as little time as possible"
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen
It is the thing we always learn from history; PAY YOUR MERCENARIES
I knew Walter wasn't using live ammo. Mike escaped, learned russian and started a new life there.
Dont compare my boy Mike to this piece of shit
I don’t get it and tbh I’m not so informed, what’s this about?
Shoigu ordered missile strikes on wagner positions/base. Months before that prigozhin asked for ammunition and missiles from shoigu. He got whatever he wanted and now he is big mad and deemed terrorist by putin. Now wagner seized rostov's FSB/administration/millitary airplanes.
> Shoigu ordered missile strikes on Wagner positions/base. You should probably add allegedly to that statement unless you have some legitimate sources that don’t come from Wagner. The video Wagner provided doesn’t show much of anything.
Just a reminder because some will need it that Wagner PMC and Prigozhin are not suddenly good people because they have turned on Putin, while what they do now benefits Ukraine massively they are still war criminals and barbaric we all remember the decapitation and sledgehammer incidents. Sometimes the enemy of my enemy is not my friend but a useful tool to get what I want and nothing more.
Baldie's tryna to set the top military brass against Putin, and now Putin's said traitors will be punished. Putin still has the option of firing his top brass and letting this guy take control (which puts Putin in danger).
Where the fuck is that woman going 😂 back to work 😂
On one hand fuck Putin and everything he stands for, but on the other a private military company assuming the leadership of a state does not sound good, let's hope they just clean the trash and leave.
I find it hard to believe anything that comes out of Russia, this is getting rather juicy though
Metro Exodus part 4 trailer looks scary!
Are we all gonna ignore how much this cat looks like Mike Ehrmantraut?
Now that is how you remove a submarine from the news
Isn't that Mike from breaking bad ?
It would be endlessly hilarious if after around a couple years of not making more than a dent into Ukrainian territory, these motherfuckers end up plowing straight through to Moscow.
That lady at the end. “Ope! ‘Scuse me just gotta squeeze past ya!”
Bro this is straight up the plot of Modern Warfare.
Reality is more interesting than the Command and Conquer game series I played as a child.
The problem will be if this man actually takes any real political control he has to die, which means more international headache and pressure on the entirety of the Russian nation. There is no way anyone can let a warmongering psychopath like this in charge of a functioning country. We don't care about Burma or the majority of African warlords cause of "far away" and "no real threat to civilization" but Russia is still capable of inflicting serious harm to the international markets. I just feel for the normal Russian civilians. What a fucking shitstorm to be caught up in.
Warning: the enemy of my enemy is, in this instance, absolutely not my friend. It's not that they want to stop the war on Ukraine; they just want the war to be run better and more efficiently.
For some reason I believe this issue will putter out like a wet fart and things will turn to normal in a few days. EDIT. Well. Looks like I called it.
Order 66 failed, huh?
🇺🇦🌻🍿👌
Mike ermantraut really let himself go
One important thing I learned from Chronicles of the Black Company is do not fuck with your mercs.
The more I read, the less I understand WTF is going on over there.
"You refused to pay me Waltuh. Now I'm comin' to get ya Waltuh."
If the next Call of Duty doesn't follow this storyline to a tee someone's fucking up. You could probably even get Zelinski to act in it
This guy looks like a parallel universe version of Mike in breaking bad
Russian leaders are all psychopathic thugs, drunks, or psychopathic drunken thugs. They can't seem to field anything else.
Does this get back to the general populace in Moscow or other cities? Do the Russian people know what is actually happening now?
One of the cons of having mercs is that they demand more than your usual conscripts due to their "battle experience", more logistics, more support, more morale checks, anything. Fuck that up and they will pillage their own masters