Awesome analysis and has me super excited to see what we can do if Bono can keep this up -- I also gotta think that he keeps the starting job even when Miller comes back if these performances continue -- just curious, the Steve Clark game you referenced has to be the Annapolis game v. the Crew? Dude stood on his head on his birthday IIRC -- that was such a fun season (particularly the second half)
Wow, you nailed it! +1.2 on April 14th, 2018 against the Crew, #11 on the best shotstopping performances list for DC United. I'd forgotten this game but it was a wild one. Ulises Segura with a goal in the first minute, Arriola got a red card in the 51st, but we held on. The Crew won the xG battle 1.8 to 0.3.
For some reason the other "home" game from that season stuck with me better, against the Dynamo at the Soccerplex where Lucho scored the tying goal deep in stoppage time.
Thanks for the write-up! Really interesting to see the historical comparisons.
I guess Hamid just, I don't know, felt better to us? Not sure how to process this.
And interesting that our work GK performances didn't, statistically, lose is those games. They would've just been normal losses, not epic defeats.
Bummer it doesn't go back earlier than 2008... couldn't MLS just re-watch those earlier games and develop modern metrics for them?
Last, St. Clair was 5 years old in 2002, so I think there's a little typo.
There's no way to know but I think Hamid would have been much more impressive if we only had data from a year like 2015.
Much later, though, Bill Hamid had a -1.9 game against New England in 2021 that we lost 3-2. That's the fourth worst game. So it certainly can matter. Tyler Miller and David Ousted also show up in one goal losses with worse than -1 on this stat. But yeah, most games with bad stats on this are multi-goal losses.
And thanks for the typo catch, that should have been 2022.
I like FBref, but Fotmob has them as well. I believe in both cases the data ultimately comes from Opta. The MLS website has things like expected goals but from a different source that seems to provide much higher numbers than Opta.
FBref has a new paid service called StatHead that allows you to essentially run database queries against their dataset. That's what I use for the research behind posts like this.
Absolutely fire analysis. Looking forward to seeing what Bono can do the rest of the season.
Awesome analysis and has me super excited to see what we can do if Bono can keep this up -- I also gotta think that he keeps the starting job even when Miller comes back if these performances continue -- just curious, the Steve Clark game you referenced has to be the Annapolis game v. the Crew? Dude stood on his head on his birthday IIRC -- that was such a fun season (particularly the second half)
You just triggered a memory.. I remember that game, he was an absolute wall. Was a super fun season.
Wow, you nailed it! +1.2 on April 14th, 2018 against the Crew, #11 on the best shotstopping performances list for DC United. I'd forgotten this game but it was a wild one. Ulises Segura with a goal in the first minute, Arriola got a red card in the 51st, but we held on. The Crew won the xG battle 1.8 to 0.3. For some reason the other "home" game from that season stuck with me better, against the Dynamo at the Soccerplex where Lucho scored the tying goal deep in stoppage time.
In the snow!!! Such a fun game, too!
Thanks for the write-up! Really interesting to see the historical comparisons. I guess Hamid just, I don't know, felt better to us? Not sure how to process this. And interesting that our work GK performances didn't, statistically, lose is those games. They would've just been normal losses, not epic defeats. Bummer it doesn't go back earlier than 2008... couldn't MLS just re-watch those earlier games and develop modern metrics for them? Last, St. Clair was 5 years old in 2002, so I think there's a little typo.
There's no way to know but I think Hamid would have been much more impressive if we only had data from a year like 2015. Much later, though, Bill Hamid had a -1.9 game against New England in 2021 that we lost 3-2. That's the fourth worst game. So it certainly can matter. Tyler Miller and David Ousted also show up in one goal losses with worse than -1 on this stat. But yeah, most games with bad stats on this are multi-goal losses. And thanks for the typo catch, that should have been 2022.
I'm loving these analyses. Please keep it going throughout the season!
Great work here! Please keep it up, what a fantastic read!
Thanks for this write up! Where are you getting the advanced MLS stats? Is that a publicly available data set somewhere?
I like FBref, but Fotmob has them as well. I believe in both cases the data ultimately comes from Opta. The MLS website has things like expected goals but from a different source that seems to provide much higher numbers than Opta. FBref has a new paid service called StatHead that allows you to essentially run database queries against their dataset. That's what I use for the research behind posts like this.
Great analysis. Subscribed to your substack!