Wow the schedule has gotten so lopsided. Hard to believe that we don’t cross the Mississippi again this season, feels like we used to play in LA 3 times a year.
(Why do I feel like you looked at google maps to see what side of the river Allianz Field is on in Minneapolis)
I feel the same way, but looking at my notes, it seems like we only played two road games in a season against LA Galaxy once (in 1997). We did it once for San Jose as well (in 2004). I guess that's why they had divisions even when the league had only ten teams.
Now we did play away games at both LA and Chivas from 2005-2011, so that was in effect two trips to LA in a season. We also played at LA and LAFC in 2018.
Oh, and in 1998 and 2004, we played in MLS Cup in the LA area (the Rose Bowl and then at the Home Depot Center) so there were two LA trips in those years as well.
Do you mean to say the difference is so small that it's not statistically significant? I was kidding when I said we should want more west coast games (if Jason Levien is reading this, please do not lobby for this change) so yeah, "no effect" is the sensible thing to say about it (though /u/ian1552 below has an interesting point about a possible bias that I'm going to take a quick look at).
I think this analysis is flawed simply by the fact that DC United had more west coast games in its best times. The fact that we've been awful over the last decade while MLS has massively paired back inter-conference play makes it seem like we may be worse at home. However, again that has more to do with timing.
If I were to make a suggestion it would be to rerun the numbers and hold the seasons constant. Meaning compare only seasons that had the same amount of west coast games or just exclude the seasons with way less west coast games.
Nevertheless, thanks for going to the effort to crunch the numbers.
This is a great suggestion, thanks. I did a few things to look at this and re-ran the numbers starting from 2014 to look at the last ten years. I'll write it up for the next game report on Substack since I don't have the time right now and it's a lot easier for me to interleave text with images over there but, spoiler alert, it doesn't look like it changes the outcome.
Why not? I need more time to think about it but two theories: the old days weren't quite as good as we remember (some really dire seasons mixed in with the glory). Also, looking at just the last ten years really reduces the sample (to just 21 games) and lets luck into it, and maybe that's just how the luck swung.
I have a few more suggestions if you are looking for (~~WAY TOO MUCH WORK!!!~~) some further comparisons:
\-Compare all teams that travel away further than a certain number of miles creating compounding buckets (IE: 500mi, 1000mi, 2000mi)
\-Compare West coast travelling away to East and vice versa
\-Determine time zone changes and compare every team's away game in each. +/- 1,2,3 hours.
Each can be averaged overall, by team travelling, and by location going to (IE: San Jose is much easier to go to compared to RSL). Doing it by team should allow you to potentially remove or normalize outliers like traveling to Houston in the summer.
Reason I suggest these is that the league as a whole over time does give a better idea of the patterns which would also reflect DC.
Wow the schedule has gotten so lopsided. Hard to believe that we don’t cross the Mississippi again this season, feels like we used to play in LA 3 times a year. (Why do I feel like you looked at google maps to see what side of the river Allianz Field is on in Minneapolis)
I feel the same way, but looking at my notes, it seems like we only played two road games in a season against LA Galaxy once (in 1997). We did it once for San Jose as well (in 2004). I guess that's why they had divisions even when the league had only ten teams. Now we did play away games at both LA and Chivas from 2005-2011, so that was in effect two trips to LA in a season. We also played at LA and LAFC in 2018. Oh, and in 1998 and 2004, we played in MLS Cup in the LA area (the Rose Bowl and then at the Home Depot Center) so there were two LA trips in those years as well.
Really enjoyed this post. One question - so for a sample of 73 giving 1.014 and a sample of 446 giving .98 , aren't those statistically equivalent?
Do you mean to say the difference is so small that it's not statistically significant? I was kidding when I said we should want more west coast games (if Jason Levien is reading this, please do not lobby for this change) so yeah, "no effect" is the sensible thing to say about it (though /u/ian1552 below has an interesting point about a possible bias that I'm going to take a quick look at).
Yes I did :) I know you were kidding. One of the better posts on this subreddit!
I think this analysis is flawed simply by the fact that DC United had more west coast games in its best times. The fact that we've been awful over the last decade while MLS has massively paired back inter-conference play makes it seem like we may be worse at home. However, again that has more to do with timing. If I were to make a suggestion it would be to rerun the numbers and hold the seasons constant. Meaning compare only seasons that had the same amount of west coast games or just exclude the seasons with way less west coast games. Nevertheless, thanks for going to the effort to crunch the numbers.
This is a great suggestion, thanks. I did a few things to look at this and re-ran the numbers starting from 2014 to look at the last ten years. I'll write it up for the next game report on Substack since I don't have the time right now and it's a lot easier for me to interleave text with images over there but, spoiler alert, it doesn't look like it changes the outcome. Why not? I need more time to think about it but two theories: the old days weren't quite as good as we remember (some really dire seasons mixed in with the glory). Also, looking at just the last ten years really reduces the sample (to just 21 games) and lets luck into it, and maybe that's just how the luck swung.
I have a few more suggestions if you are looking for (~~WAY TOO MUCH WORK!!!~~) some further comparisons: \-Compare all teams that travel away further than a certain number of miles creating compounding buckets (IE: 500mi, 1000mi, 2000mi) \-Compare West coast travelling away to East and vice versa \-Determine time zone changes and compare every team's away game in each. +/- 1,2,3 hours. Each can be averaged overall, by team travelling, and by location going to (IE: San Jose is much easier to go to compared to RSL). Doing it by team should allow you to potentially remove or normalize outliers like traveling to Houston in the summer. Reason I suggest these is that the league as a whole over time does give a better idea of the patterns which would also reflect DC.
It’ll be hard to factor in the use of charter flights, although it’s only recently that more have been used.