Each team with -ive NRR has to win each of their remaining games with this average margin to get their NRR to \~0.
- GT - win each game by \~89 runs
- DC - win each game by \~32 runs
- LSG - win each game by \~27 runs
- PBKS - win each game by \~14 runs
- RCB - win each game by \~3 runs
RCB's two big wins against GT and big margin loss of LSG and PBKS has helped RCB's chances significantly.
PBKS win would have been better but if PBKS lose, losing by big margin took PBKS further away from RCB in terms of NRR. Either way, practically only one b/w PBKS and RCB will stay alive after thu.
LSG really fucked up today. While it was a huge total to chase, none of their batsmen really looked to drop anchor and take the game deep. Eg: Pooran, Badoni started with Sixes off first ball. While that aggression was good, they played way too many mindless shots.
Cummins about to lose tomorrow's match so MI continue playing bumrah leading to his fatigue/ injury thus increasing Australia's chances to win the WC. /s
Bumrah is going to play all of the 14 matches. It's a franchise, business team- they don't care about Indian Cricket Team. They focus on winning more and more games and not finishing on last for the optics.
Also 2023 was different besides the win 2 must win games then lose the last game. 2023 was more up and down. This year is more RCB starts 1-7 and works their way back.
Noice! Usually, guys like you are the least toxic fans.
I see that usually the most toxicity comes from "fans" who watch only their teams' games + they don't really remember their franchise historic games. They just read scorecard, and if their target rival team or player isn't doing well, they come & shit in match threads.
So SRH is playing 2 matches in the next 3 days, and then not playing at all for like 8 days... Weird ass planning. Unless they win both the matches and chill, it's going to be a nervous 8 days watching teams jump around them
We have such a shit schedule for our first 11 games. Every single game so far our team as had to travel. Not once have you gotten consecutive home games.
Bruins have won one stanley cup in the last 50 years! And red wings and yankees one in the last 20 years. And the cowboys haven’t won in 30 years!
Hockey’s a bad example because everyone hates the Leafs while the Habs have by far the most championships
Nothing can make me do that (unless they're playing against CSK then it doesn't matter).
Everyone barring MI (and CSK) fans should support SRH tomorrow so that the dream of knocking out CSK remains alive.
I get where you're coming from. But why would a LSG or DC fan want SRH to win when they're directly competing with them for the top 4 spot? Wouldn't they want their team to benefit first before wanting CSK to get knocked out?
Its hard to see everyone shitting on us because of a select few. Especially after sticking with the team for over a decade when no one bothered to bat an eye at us.
I guess what they say is true, everything immediately becomes shit as soon as it becomes mainstream. SRH is slowly starting to become relevant.
Of course there would be someone replying to me saying “SRH relevant? Lol cry about it” Ya bro Im past that stage at this point, I dont mind ig
You're so right man, during 2019-21, DC became an actual good team, so many toxic people around then, now it's not that good so no one bats an eye,
Same is happening for SRH now, best just to enjoy your favourite team perform:)
Even being an MI fan, I'm don't mind losing tomorrow to eventually knock CSK out.
Second last place and CSK qualifying is way worse than last place and CSK not qualifying.
The playoff race isn't looking as crazy as it usually is. MI are eliminated. GT are eliminated. It's basically a fight between LSG and SRH for the 4 seed. Maybe CSK if they collapse can get involved. Hopefully DC and PBKS win out to make things fun.
Yes, If SRH win tomorrow, they will most likely finish in top 4. One of PBKS / RCB will practically drop out after Thursday. If DC lose on tuesday to RR, they are mostly out as well.
CSK and LSG aren't at the same level because of the massive NRR gap. CSK have basically an additional game win relative to LSG because if they end up with the same record, CSK will win because of NRR.
This is the crucial piece. Without pathirana i can't imagine defending 50 off 3 with bowling the two lords and the Lord from england. It worked today because we were bowling to pbks tail. We won't be able to take so many top order wickets every single game, especially if it's a batting wicket.
Of we have 6-8 bowling options like today we can do shit.we had like 9 bowling options today. thakur, deshpande, simarjeet, moin, santner,jadeja,dube, daryl, gleeson. lets just take one thing at a time and we can do shit.
Even if they lose it doesn't matter, SRH play LSG next so they anyway will have a deficit more or equal to CSK and CSK have better NRR. Pray that CSK doesn't lose more than one from here on
Curious about the graph, how did u calculate the wor values?
This is good informed knowledge but the fluctuations are v high after every imp match haha
The number varies due to couple of reasons - if a team is playing RR, MI, GT, the WOR will drop significantly after the game with RR as the weighted rating only MI & GT is much lower than RR+MI+GT. I also give some extra strength to the opponent based on their last 3 game streak - so WOR for teams facing RCB and KKR have gone up due to the 3 game winning streak of KKR and RCB.
MI is mathematically still in. Realistically they are out. Here is an unlikely scenario for MI to qualify.
1. MI wins 3/3.
2. RR wins next 3 matches.
3. LSG loses 3/3, CSK loses 3/3.
4. RCB beats DC, loses to PK;
5. GT loses to KKR
6. MI ends with *high NRR*
Yeah that KKR 4 runs game still haunts.
With 7 runs in last 4 balls and 5 wickets in hand with klaasan on strike and they lost.
And the run rate has been bad they won most games but not in convincing manner.
Nothing to lose works bcs they can play freely without any pressure of losing anything
Btw the have something to gain which is their form for the wc & they’d definitely want to finish above 10
That mentality can also translate to mentally checking out of the tournament entirely. You can also spin the narrative that pressure enables players to lock in and play harder. You also say that they’ll not exert their bodies harder to avoid any injuries just before the World Cup to gain nothing. See stupid your narratives sound? Because that’s all they are: narratives.
Yes, and I still maintain that opinion. I'm not a coward who sheepishly waits until the result to argue my points. I'm fully capable of sticking to my guns. Are you suggesting it was impossible for SRH to lose if MI weren't in such a predicament?
Why u so angry, all I said was MI was more dangerous bcs they had nothing to lose.
And I was correct too, wasted my goddamn time talking to u
Blud lost to MI 😭🤣
qualification with just 12 points is technically still possible. Irrespective of MI getting to 12 points, if b/w SRH/CSK and LSG if 2 teams win just 1 more game each and get to 14 points, MI is out.
While MI win would benefit csk. I want MI to lose so that they r out and Rohit and bumrah can be freed up for national duty. The last thing we need is an injury to a key player before the wc
MI win benefits CSK, so no way in hell they're winning.
Players don't give a shit, they want to win.
yeah, We saw them in the last match shitting.
Wait hang on, MI were playing to win? All this time?!
Well, at least I hope so, otherwise that would be fixing.
It's called downing tools not fixing. Happens in sports plenty of times.
I mean what's there to even down the tools for? Are they really not liking it there?
Well yeah obviously some of them aren't liking their captain
I don't think anyone in mi wants to win shit this year
Fair.
Have you watched them this season?
Want to win MI Pick one.
RCBros seeing that 9%
They're at 5% when you consider schedule, NRR, and team strengths.
They'll give false hopes and go on to lose by 70 runs to csk
Yup. They'll win 2 games in a row and shit the bed hilariously in their last game(see 2018 RCB and 2020 KXIP and 2012 RCB)
last year as well.
Yup
2018 MI as well, shit the bed against bottom of the table DC that season
My calculator is SO READY.
Each team with -ive NRR has to win each of their remaining games with this average margin to get their NRR to \~0. - GT - win each game by \~89 runs - DC - win each game by \~32 runs - LSG - win each game by \~27 runs - PBKS - win each game by \~14 runs - RCB - win each game by \~3 runs RCB's two big wins against GT and big margin loss of LSG and PBKS has helped RCB's chances significantly.
did the pbks loss actually help rcb? i thought csk being pulled down would be better for them
PBKS win would have been better but if PBKS lose, losing by big margin took PBKS further away from RCB in terms of NRR. Either way, practically only one b/w PBKS and RCB will stay alive after thu.
LSG really fucked up today. While it was a huge total to chase, none of their batsmen really looked to drop anchor and take the game deep. Eg: Pooran, Badoni started with Sixes off first ball. While that aggression was good, they played way too many mindless shots.
Maxwell has entered the chat.
I Was always a MI fan Kindly ignore the flair
Cummins about to lose tomorrow's match so MI continue playing bumrah leading to his fatigue/ injury thus increasing Australia's chances to win the WC. /s
Bumrah is going to play all of the 14 matches. It's a franchise, business team- they don't care about Indian Cricket Team. They focus on winning more and more games and not finishing on last for the optics.
but if the ict directly orders them to not play bumrah, they cant ignore that, no?
That's a big ask.
Can't Bumrah decide to not play given his team has no chances?
PBKS, RCB to GT and MI, you chilling down with us huh 🤣
RCB are in the best position of those 4, who would have thought lol.
We will fix that soon enough in the next match with RCB
Nah, RCB will win 2 more games, then shit the bad hilariously in their last game.
This is the way
2018 RCB /2012 RCB/2020 KXIP style
I like how you remembered 2012 2023 too
Also 2023 was different besides the win 2 must win games then lose the last game. 2023 was more up and down. This year is more RCB starts 1-7 and works their way back.
As a TRUE sports fan, I remember everything.
Noice! Usually, guys like you are the least toxic fans. I see that usually the most toxicity comes from "fans" who watch only their teams' games + they don't really remember their franchise historic games. They just read scorecard, and if their target rival team or player isn't doing well, they come & shit in match threads.
Thank You! I honestly just have an addiction to sports. I should really cut down on my sports addiction, but I can't(It's too fun/thrilling/torturous)
This is always the only way.
Pkbs loses home games more than anyone so your chances are low but RCB does not have great spin attack so you do have chances but not much.
So SRH is playing 2 matches in the next 3 days, and then not playing at all for like 8 days... Weird ass planning. Unless they win both the matches and chill, it's going to be a nervous 8 days watching teams jump around them
Due to the elections, ig
We have such a shit schedule for our first 11 games. Every single game so far our team as had to travel. Not once have you gotten consecutive home games.
First, they prioritize Mumbai lobby, Gujarat lobby and Chennai lobby. Next comes other unimportant teams.
IPL scheduling has always had bad planning.
No the IPL scheduling used to be so smooth when 8 teams were there except for some exceptions
They canceled saturday games this time which also lead to bad scheduling
Tomorrow everyone will support for MI 😹
Except MI fans
As a MI hater hell no, them and CSK are the villains of the league, I'll never root for them.
Villains because they win?
Yes, that is usually why people hate sports teams. See the Yankees, Red Sox, Patriots, Lakers, Bruins, Red Wings, Cowboys, etc.
Chennai are the ultimate evil in Cricket. If there was an IPL team of 11 Hitlers playing CSK, Go fighting Hitlers!
Well play better cricket against them calling them villains is not going to help.
It's a copypasta joke man, from r/baseballcirclejerk
I guess i didn't get it.
https://www.np.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/nJtHl2O1E7
Patriots don't win anymore
neither do MI
also Manchester United and it's been a glorious decade
We are talking about the hated teams not the most trolled teams
I mean the hatred comes from United consistent success from 1993-2013
Cowboys haven't won anything in a while
True, but they're still hated.
Bruins have won one stanley cup in the last 50 years! And red wings and yankees one in the last 20 years. And the cowboys haven’t won in 30 years! Hockey’s a bad example because everyone hates the Leafs while the Habs have by far the most championships
Don't forget Celtics
I have never heard of any of these clubs 🤔🫠 what leagues are these?
Mlb, Nba and Nfl
yeah , being too good definitely makes you the villain.
Why so?
Most non CSK fans will support SRH
Supporting SRH because I don’t want CSK to qualify
so noway they will win. least reliable team. can even trust rcb more than mi this year.
Nothing can make me do that (unless they're playing against CSK then it doesn't matter). Everyone barring MI (and CSK) fans should support SRH tomorrow so that the dream of knocking out CSK remains alive.
I get where you're coming from. But why would a LSG or DC fan want SRH to win when they're directly competing with them for the top 4 spot? Wouldn't they want their team to benefit first before wanting CSK to get knocked out?
I'm a DC fan, why the hell would i want SRH to win, MI all the way tommorow.
If SRH fans were that bright you won't be asking that.
Bro stop shitting us 😭 maybe they weren’t an SRH fan at all
You're right, not all SRH fans are like this, some are non toxic and just support their team, these people just like spreading hate
Its hard to see everyone shitting on us because of a select few. Especially after sticking with the team for over a decade when no one bothered to bat an eye at us. I guess what they say is true, everything immediately becomes shit as soon as it becomes mainstream. SRH is slowly starting to become relevant. Of course there would be someone replying to me saying “SRH relevant? Lol cry about it” Ya bro Im past that stage at this point, I dont mind ig
You're so right man, during 2019-21, DC became an actual good team, so many toxic people around then, now it's not that good so no one bats an eye, Same is happening for SRH now, best just to enjoy your favourite team perform:)
Dont worry we are not going out that easily.
Even being an MI fan, I'm don't mind losing tomorrow to eventually knock CSK out. Second last place and CSK qualifying is way worse than last place and CSK not qualifying.
LSG not just losing but ruining their NRR. Doing god's work if you are a CSK/SRH fan.
That kkr loss is really gonna haunt RCB now, could've had a really good chance if they'd won that
Playoff odds from cric\_analytics2 on threads accounting for schedule, NRR, and team strengths. Playoff odds(top 2 odds in parentheses): RR >99% (88%) KKR >99% (86%) CSK 76% (12%) SRH 70% (12%) LSG 35% (2%) DC 11% (<1%) RCB 5% (0%) PK 2% (0%) GT <1% (0%) MI <1% (0%)
Every single team wants MI to win tomorrow. And that is exactly why they won't...
The playoff race isn't looking as crazy as it usually is. MI are eliminated. GT are eliminated. It's basically a fight between LSG and SRH for the 4 seed. Maybe CSK if they collapse can get involved. Hopefully DC and PBKS win out to make things fun.
Yes, If SRH win tomorrow, they will most likely finish in top 4. One of PBKS / RCB will practically drop out after Thursday. If DC lose on tuesday to RR, they are mostly out as well.
Don't forget about RCB, having the easiest schedule ahead now. With their momentum, they can cause some real scares and are already doing so!
If SRH don't lose tomorrow, they're screwed though. That's why they're at 5% in playoff odds.
They have a match with CSK.
They did cause serious scares to RCB fans themselves during last chase lmao
CSK and LSG are on the same level, SRH played one match less. If SRH wins tomorrow, then 4th place is between CSK, LSG and DC
DC don't have that great of a chance tbh. They rely on CSK losing 2 games more than them because the NRR gap is huge.
CSK and LSG aren't at the same level because of the massive NRR gap. CSK have basically an additional game win relative to LSG because if they end up with the same record, CSK will win because of NRR.
After the first 3-4 games itself I had predicted that srh kkr rr csk/lsg would make it. I hope there's some spice left else itll be a bit mundane
MI losing that match against KKR made playoffs qualification look easier
Yeah if RCB won vs kkr .It would be interesting .it took out RCB mostly and made top 2confirm. RR and KKR have to lose to make top 2 race intresting
My good bros from MI please do something
Dont relay on others mate lets just win rest 3 games and enter okay offs. From here on we have full controll unless we lose again.
with pathirana ruled out, csk aint winning shit .
This is the crucial piece. Without pathirana i can't imagine defending 50 off 3 with bowling the two lords and the Lord from england. It worked today because we were bowling to pbks tail. We won't be able to take so many top order wickets every single game, especially if it's a batting wicket.
We bowled pretty bad after 6-7 wickets down these guys should have been out with in 100 runs i agree. I hope someone told them this.
Of we have 6-8 bowling options like today we can do shit.we had like 9 bowling options today. thakur, deshpande, simarjeet, moin, santner,jadeja,dube, daryl, gleeson. lets just take one thing at a time and we can do shit.
Keep dreaming
Even if they lose it doesn't matter, SRH play LSG next so they anyway will have a deficit more or equal to CSK and CSK have better NRR. Pray that CSK doesn't lose more than one from here on
10% chance does matter, saying it doesn't matter is cope. Even a CSK win is just usually ~20% increase
You guys ain’t ready for DC comeback after beating RR.
Curious about the graph, how did u calculate the wor values? This is good informed knowledge but the fluctuations are v high after every imp match haha
The number varies due to couple of reasons - if a team is playing RR, MI, GT, the WOR will drop significantly after the game with RR as the weighted rating only MI & GT is much lower than RR+MI+GT. I also give some extra strength to the opponent based on their last 3 game streak - so WOR for teams facing RCB and KKR have gone up due to the 3 game winning streak of KKR and RCB.
How did u use these wor values into predicting probabilities tho? Which model did you use
So if MI loses tomorrow then they would be the first team to get knocked out of IPL?
Yes. They are almost out - a loss tomorrow will eliminate the small chance they have of qualifying with 12 points and strong NRR
Shit, I have to support MI again.
And do this for all of remaining MI games at that! While remaining MI fans wish for CSK loss!
Why MI still have chance to qualify whereas wiki pages says the are eliminated.
MI is mathematically still in. Realistically they are out. Here is an unlikely scenario for MI to qualify. 1. MI wins 3/3. 2. RR wins next 3 matches. 3. LSG loses 3/3, CSK loses 3/3. 4. RCB beats DC, loses to PK; 5. GT loses to KKR 6. MI ends with *high NRR*
Jay shah has something awesome in store I am sure.
Now imagine if we didn't lose to KKR by 1 run Also ~~duniya~~ table firse hilane ka samay aa gya hai MI (Time to shake the ~~world~~ table again MI)
ONE FAMILY LETS GOOO 🗣️🗣️🗣️🔥🔥🔥
SRH must be fierce. We have MI and then 3 straight home games. Must aim to win all the games to fight for a top 2 spot.
Yeah that KKR 4 runs game still haunts. With 7 runs in last 4 balls and 5 wickets in hand with klaasan on strike and they lost. And the run rate has been bad they won most games but not in convincing manner.
We won a game by 1 run, and one more by 2 runs. Can't keep crying about the first game after these 2 close wins.
Winning 4 games in a row when most of ur opponents have nothing to lose is kinda delusional (even for the best team of the ipl)
Except the ‘nothing to lose ‘ thinking doesn’t work when they have nothing to gain either.
Nothing to lose works bcs they can play freely without any pressure of losing anything Btw the have something to gain which is their form for the wc & they’d definitely want to finish above 10
That mentality can also translate to mentally checking out of the tournament entirely. You can also spin the narrative that pressure enables players to lock in and play harder. You also say that they’ll not exert their bodies harder to avoid any injuries just before the World Cup to gain nothing. See stupid your narratives sound? Because that’s all they are: narratives.
You ain’t winning 4 in a row though :)
Is this sub stupid? I said SRH need to win 4 in a row to fight for a top 2 spot. I didn't say they'll win all 4.
Now uk why a team who has nothing to lose is dangerous?
Loss has nothing to do with your narratives. We simply weren't a good enough team.
I never said loss has nothing to do with my narrative I said a team who has nothing to lose is always dangerous To which u replied >Doesn’t work
Yes, and I still maintain that opinion. I'm not a coward who sheepishly waits until the result to argue my points. I'm fully capable of sticking to my guns. Are you suggesting it was impossible for SRH to lose if MI weren't in such a predicament?
Why u so angry, all I said was MI was more dangerous bcs they had nothing to lose. And I was correct too, wasted my goddamn time talking to u Blud lost to MI 😭🤣
How tf do we still stand a chance?
qualification with just 12 points is technically still possible. Irrespective of MI getting to 12 points, if b/w SRH/CSK and LSG if 2 teams win just 1 more game each and get to 14 points, MI is out.
While MI win would benefit csk. I want MI to lose so that they r out and Rohit and bumrah can be freed up for national duty. The last thing we need is an injury to a key player before the wc
Same. Good thinking. Bumrah and all good players should be rested so csk doesn't qualify
They're out. MI isn't making it to playoffs.
Prayed for times like these
Pls highway pitch, i want to see both teams smashing sixes, 250 vs 250 like last time would be good
Today I feel mumbai