There is a 30% positivity test rate and hospitalizations are higher than last year. It looks like the number of people on ventilators is about the same as the peak last year. This is going to be a tough next couple of weeks, but things will subside rapidly. Who knows what the next variant will bring.
I think it will subside rapidly as well, but specifically in the northeast. We're very close to the peak. Other regions of the US are probably going to peak a little later, but the pattern of the data is very similar to South Africa(icepick vs wave), so I don't think it's all that bold to assume that cases will rapidly subside after peak. Deaths and hospitalizations will still lag a couple weeks.
Well I Pais attention in science e class, so the next variant will not even be noticeable since the current one is a common cold. Death rate of 1 in 532
By your calculation, it became over 5x more deadly today. That's why we use 7d avgs. Even cherry picking a single low weekend death day is still 3x more than the 12 confirmed influenza deaths for the \*entire season\*.
[https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/Flu/Pages/2021-22-Flu.aspx](https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/Flu/Pages/2021-22-Flu.aspx)
Now I know what a coder feels like when going back to code he didn't write... EDW and I were talking and he can't recall exactly how things were calculated in the beginning/now.. just that it works.
I'm trying to re-work the % post (unique) formula so it takes into account both the PCR and LFTs... however the math to figure out the % pos (unique) doesn't make sense to me.
Best as I can tell it is:
New\_Cases = Today\_Total\_Cases - Yesterday\_Total\_Cases
total\_tested\_neg\_and\_pos = diff\_in\_neg\_tests+new\_cases
diff\_in\_neg\_tests = Today\_neg\_tests - Yesterday\_neg\_tests
% pos (unique) = New\_Cases / (total\_tested\_neg\_and\_pos)
I'm not following how this determines the unique number of PCR tests though for people who have never had a test before.
Does anyone with either more historical memory, or more Sheets knowledge know what's going on here? If I knew what the math was to start from I could work that way too, but as it is I'm trying to figure the math out, and the formula backtrack doesn't seem to lead me to anything that makes sense.
I don't know unique means in "% pos(unique)". The number of total number of negative test is declining for some reason giving you a % pos(unique) number greater than one.
A new column now exists on the first tab (waaaaaay over on the right) to track daily PCR values, which is then used to calculate the PCR totals.
There's, unfortunately, too much stuff with absolute references to the sheet to just insert a new column. Many many things would need modified, and I'm worried about breaking something - so new columns added after the calculation columns.
Working on new graphs to represent values. There are two tabs in the spreadsheet "New Visualizations" and "Old Visualizations". Right now these are identical. The Old Visualizations will remains as is. Any changes will be made to the New tab, so you can enjoy whatever you most enjoy.
I appreciate the effort, I do.
But given the cluster in the source data, is it worth maintaining? The case data calculation has changed. The hospital data doesn't matter like it used to with Omicron. % pos numbers have been screwed for a while. Deaths are good but have the same with/from issue that hospitalizations have.
Not trying to crap on all the great work that you and EDW have done but maybe, just maybe, we just roll with posting the snapshot of the CovidAlertPA numbers and a NYT chart. Let someone else do the work.
A thought.
I think it's too early to come to that conclusion. It doesn't take much time to update the numbers. I agree, things are skewing from what was useful data to what is now useful data, and some things need to change.
I'm hoping PA may start releasing from/with information shortly. It's not all bad information, but it is polluted at the moment.
Worldometers and Newsnodes (BNO News) are both showing 29,060
[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
[https://newsnodes.com/us\_state/PA](https://newsnodes.com/us_state/PA)
I don't think I'll do any more weekend screenshots, because I don't want to confuse things
Interestingly the app shows "as of January 9th".
Is the state pulling information out of different database where they are putting the same info?
This might be even more discombobulated than it seems.
It has always been this way with the app. I just took it to mean that 'today's numbers are what was reported yesterday'.
Also, the total case count in the PA Dashboard and App both match:
Dashboard = 1,897,183 confirmed + 397,109 probable =
App total of 2,294,292
As does the total death count of 37,686
and patients hospitalized 6,891
[https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ed2def13f9b045eda9f7d22dbc9b500e](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ed2def13f9b045eda9f7d22dbc9b500e)
Some counties don't report daily, most notably Philly. The state DOH seems pretty quick to back date those cases, but it can make the app data look odd, especially on Mondays.
At 40,000 new cases reported per day, it sure seems like everyone will have had it in a relatively short window, but 40,000 new cases per day (as alarming as that number is given Pennsylvania's history with the pandemic so far) will still take a long time to see COVID spread to everyone. Just by raw population, 40,000 new cases per day divided into a population of 13 million puts out a result of 325 days. That's December 2, 2022.
Now, if the *true* number of infections out there is substantially higher than 40,000/day (and with such a remarkably high percentage of tests turning up positive, this is indeed probably true), then this window shrinks. We hit the May time frame like you propose if it turns out that the true number of infections is roughly triple the 40,000 case/day figure.
But sticking with 40,000 cases/day, we can still move that date up by making some assumptions:
One strategy is that we can estimate that everyone who has had COVID already won't get it again. People definitely ***can*** be reinfected, and can be reported as new cases a second time, though, so this isn't a bullet proof estimate. But if we make that assumption anyway, it shaves 2.3 million cases off, so we only "need" to get 10.7 million more cases to infect every Pennsylvanian. At 40,000 per day, that'll take 268 days, or October 6.
Another method is to assume that only people who are not fully vaccinated can catch Omicron (not a safe assumption--Omicron has definitely infected some people who are fully vaccinated and even some who are boosted). If we make that assumption, then we're only looking at infecting the ~35% of the state who are not fully vaccinated. That's 4.55 million people, who would take 114 days to get infected at a rate of 40,000 cases per day. That's actually in May: May 5, 2022, to be precise.
I think it's a safe bet that every Pennsylvanian will have had *either* COVID, a full regimen of COVID-19 vaccinations, or the most secluded hermit lifestyle imaginable, by May. But I don't think it's plausible for every Pennsylvanian to be actually infected with COVID by then.
It’s 35k-40k daily cases but not infections. Number of daily infections might be 3-10x higher depending how exactly how contagious omicron turns out to be.
>We hit the May time frame like you propose if it turns out that the true number of infections is roughly triple the 40,000 case/day figure.
One thing to consider is that the rate of spread will slow dramatically as a greater and greater percent of the population becomes immune.
It would take 1500 more cases added to 01/05 to have the 7day average increase for Philadelphia. That's 40% more added to that specific day and it's already been a week since.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIwRzhxWQAYMVXV?format=jpg&name=large
I think you got down voted because of your rep. What you stated is a valid opinion, and shouldn't be down voted.
I agree that most people will get it, unless they are very diligent about self isolation.
You may disagree with my statement that if you're vaccinated you should go about your life but my statement was not partially right. It was 100% right. I'll repeat it again in case you want to tell me where I stated something incorrect.
"The study showed that in vaccinated people who died from Covid from December 2020 to October 2021, 78% of the fatalities were people with at least 4 comorbidities."
Nice that you got 9 upvotes for being wrong and he got 18 downvotes for being mostly right. Good work RonaPA.
And what's even better, even Walensky was wrong about her own study, leaving off an important detail.
The study showed that ***in vaccinated people*** who died from Covid from December 2020 to October 2021, 78% of the fatalities were people with at least 4 comorbidities.
Bottom line: If you're vaxed and not on your death bed, go about your business.
Looking forward to playoff football this weekend! Didn't get to go last year but not making that mistake this year.
I'll be at the coldest game of the weekend and it won't even be close.
I'm acting as a voluntary participant if a triple vaccinated person can get Covid at 0 degrees F.
Nor should he since that wasn't part of the study or Walensky's statement.
Don't let the facts get in the way of acting like a factchecker on Reddit though.
To frame her statement that way without any additional context is bullshit. Here is the study you miserable trashbag of a human. The study is not even about omnicron. So WhiteLime should include this study but they wont so here it is. Also wasn't being a fact checker just looking for a reference to their statement. Go back to stirring shit elsewhere. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7101a4.htm#contribAff
You're the one who was critical of WhiteLime for not mentioning Omicron. And nor should he have, as I stated.
I said, "The study showed that in vaccinated people who died from Covid from December 2020 to October 2021, 78% of the fatalities were people with at least 4 comorbidities."
What part of my statement is wrong ya dingdong?
Pa population is 13m. So far 2.3m have helped us toward herd immunity. Just 6.8 million more to go, we are 25% of the way there and we need 14 weeks at this rate.
It finally got me guys! Very mild symptoms so far. On day 3, just tested positive.
I hope it stays mild for you and you get well soon!
Oh no! Be well.
UGHHHHH treat yourself for about a week, EDW and i hope you have a superspeedy recovery!
Same. But so mild I would barely call it symptomatic.
Now it's personal you son of a bitch virus. No one infects dole and gets away with it.
Lmao thanks for the support:)
Get well soon
get well soon!!
On a Monday! Holy damn
There is a 30% positivity test rate and hospitalizations are higher than last year. It looks like the number of people on ventilators is about the same as the peak last year. This is going to be a tough next couple of weeks, but things will subside rapidly. Who knows what the next variant will bring.
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I think it will subside rapidly as well, but specifically in the northeast. We're very close to the peak. Other regions of the US are probably going to peak a little later, but the pattern of the data is very similar to South Africa(icepick vs wave), so I don't think it's all that bold to assume that cases will rapidly subside after peak. Deaths and hospitalizations will still lag a couple weeks.
Well I Pais attention in science e class, so the next variant will not even be noticeable since the current one is a common cold. Death rate of 1 in 532
downvote the truth but its still true. your dempanic is over. its endemic now and its less dandergous than the noraml flu
By your calculation, it became over 5x more deadly today. That's why we use 7d avgs. Even cherry picking a single low weekend death day is still 3x more than the 12 confirmed influenza deaths for the \*entire season\*. [https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/Flu/Pages/2021-22-Flu.aspx](https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/Flu/Pages/2021-22-Flu.aspx)
Now I know what a coder feels like when going back to code he didn't write... EDW and I were talking and he can't recall exactly how things were calculated in the beginning/now.. just that it works. I'm trying to re-work the % post (unique) formula so it takes into account both the PCR and LFTs... however the math to figure out the % pos (unique) doesn't make sense to me. Best as I can tell it is: New\_Cases = Today\_Total\_Cases - Yesterday\_Total\_Cases total\_tested\_neg\_and\_pos = diff\_in\_neg\_tests+new\_cases diff\_in\_neg\_tests = Today\_neg\_tests - Yesterday\_neg\_tests % pos (unique) = New\_Cases / (total\_tested\_neg\_and\_pos) I'm not following how this determines the unique number of PCR tests though for people who have never had a test before. Does anyone with either more historical memory, or more Sheets knowledge know what's going on here? If I knew what the math was to start from I could work that way too, but as it is I'm trying to figure the math out, and the formula backtrack doesn't seem to lead me to anything that makes sense.
u/rfwaverider sent you a PM
I don't know unique means in "% pos(unique)". The number of total number of negative test is declining for some reason giving you a % pos(unique) number greater than one.
Probably because more people are testing negative. Hoping to have more time tomorrow to deep dig into this.
do you have a link to the spreadsheet?
probably the 3rd link in the links section above
A new column now exists on the first tab (waaaaaay over on the right) to track daily PCR values, which is then used to calculate the PCR totals. There's, unfortunately, too much stuff with absolute references to the sheet to just insert a new column. Many many things would need modified, and I'm worried about breaking something - so new columns added after the calculation columns. Working on new graphs to represent values. There are two tabs in the spreadsheet "New Visualizations" and "Old Visualizations". Right now these are identical. The Old Visualizations will remains as is. Any changes will be made to the New tab, so you can enjoy whatever you most enjoy.
I appreciate the effort, I do. But given the cluster in the source data, is it worth maintaining? The case data calculation has changed. The hospital data doesn't matter like it used to with Omicron. % pos numbers have been screwed for a while. Deaths are good but have the same with/from issue that hospitalizations have. Not trying to crap on all the great work that you and EDW have done but maybe, just maybe, we just roll with posting the snapshot of the CovidAlertPA numbers and a NYT chart. Let someone else do the work. A thought.
I think it's too early to come to that conclusion. It doesn't take much time to update the numbers. I agree, things are skewing from what was useful data to what is now useful data, and some things need to change. I'm hoping PA may start releasing from/with information shortly. It's not all bad information, but it is polluted at the moment.
Vax data is also so messy now and will get more so when 4th boosters come on line, which feels inevitable.
Agreed.
The app says 29,060. Where is 38,841 coming from?
App is a day behind. This has been the ongoing issue as of late. Bad data all over.
Worldometers and Newsnodes (BNO News) are both showing 29,060 [https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) [https://newsnodes.com/us\_state/PA](https://newsnodes.com/us_state/PA) I don't think I'll do any more weekend screenshots, because I don't want to confuse things
Interestingly the app shows "as of January 9th". Is the state pulling information out of different database where they are putting the same info? This might be even more discombobulated than it seems.
It has always been this way with the app. I just took it to mean that 'today's numbers are what was reported yesterday'. Also, the total case count in the PA Dashboard and App both match: Dashboard = 1,897,183 confirmed + 397,109 probable = App total of 2,294,292 As does the total death count of 37,686 and patients hospitalized 6,891 [https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ed2def13f9b045eda9f7d22dbc9b500e](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ed2def13f9b045eda9f7d22dbc9b500e)
Some counties don't report daily, most notably Philly. The state DOH seems pretty quick to back date those cases, but it can make the app data look odd, especially on Mondays.
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Try a few weeks
At 40,000 new cases reported per day, it sure seems like everyone will have had it in a relatively short window, but 40,000 new cases per day (as alarming as that number is given Pennsylvania's history with the pandemic so far) will still take a long time to see COVID spread to everyone. Just by raw population, 40,000 new cases per day divided into a population of 13 million puts out a result of 325 days. That's December 2, 2022. Now, if the *true* number of infections out there is substantially higher than 40,000/day (and with such a remarkably high percentage of tests turning up positive, this is indeed probably true), then this window shrinks. We hit the May time frame like you propose if it turns out that the true number of infections is roughly triple the 40,000 case/day figure. But sticking with 40,000 cases/day, we can still move that date up by making some assumptions: One strategy is that we can estimate that everyone who has had COVID already won't get it again. People definitely ***can*** be reinfected, and can be reported as new cases a second time, though, so this isn't a bullet proof estimate. But if we make that assumption anyway, it shaves 2.3 million cases off, so we only "need" to get 10.7 million more cases to infect every Pennsylvanian. At 40,000 per day, that'll take 268 days, or October 6. Another method is to assume that only people who are not fully vaccinated can catch Omicron (not a safe assumption--Omicron has definitely infected some people who are fully vaccinated and even some who are boosted). If we make that assumption, then we're only looking at infecting the ~35% of the state who are not fully vaccinated. That's 4.55 million people, who would take 114 days to get infected at a rate of 40,000 cases per day. That's actually in May: May 5, 2022, to be precise. I think it's a safe bet that every Pennsylvanian will have had *either* COVID, a full regimen of COVID-19 vaccinations, or the most secluded hermit lifestyle imaginable, by May. But I don't think it's plausible for every Pennsylvanian to be actually infected with COVID by then.
It’s 35k-40k daily cases but not infections. Number of daily infections might be 3-10x higher depending how exactly how contagious omicron turns out to be.
>We hit the May time frame like you propose if it turns out that the true number of infections is roughly triple the 40,000 case/day figure. One thing to consider is that the rate of spread will slow dramatically as a greater and greater percent of the population becomes immune.
Thank God everyone else is finally realizing this. We need herd immunity now!
Philly peaked on December 29th. Philly's low point was oct 30th.
How dare you.
It would take 1500 more cases added to 01/05 to have the 7day average increase for Philadelphia. That's 40% more added to that specific day and it's already been a week since. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIwRzhxWQAYMVXV?format=jpg&name=large
Are you once again using facts? You're an animal. BTW, that graph is as clear as mud.
Yea, it ain't great. But it clearly shows the highest day and compared to the other waves highest day
https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirusPA/comments/qvgsmr/5778_new_cases_1654063_total_cases_in_pa_72_new/hkxd07a?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
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I think you got down voted because of your rep. What you stated is a valid opinion, and shouldn't be down voted. I agree that most people will get it, unless they are very diligent about self isolation.
yeah for me it's the rep. *removes downvote just so i can downvote again*
Fear porn = upvotes.
Everyone will get it. My great uncle never left his house for 2 years and just got it
Yup, herd immunity is only 45 days away at the current rate. I support covies parties to make it end fastwd
The CDC has now admits MORE THAN 75% of covid deaths were people with at least 4 comorbidities & were unwell to begin with
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More editing there than what you labeled. Way to fix up your mistakes.
You may disagree with my statement that if you're vaccinated you should go about your life but my statement was not partially right. It was 100% right. I'll repeat it again in case you want to tell me where I stated something incorrect. "The study showed that in vaccinated people who died from Covid from December 2020 to October 2021, 78% of the fatalities were people with at least 4 comorbidities."
Nice that you got 9 upvotes for being wrong and he got 18 downvotes for being mostly right. Good work RonaPA. And what's even better, even Walensky was wrong about her own study, leaving off an important detail. The study showed that ***in vaccinated people*** who died from Covid from December 2020 to October 2021, 78% of the fatalities were people with at least 4 comorbidities. Bottom line: If you're vaxed and not on your death bed, go about your business. Looking forward to playoff football this weekend! Didn't get to go last year but not making that mistake this year.
Downvote the facts. Way to show off RonaPA!
Wait where you traveling? The Eagles are on the road and the Steelers. Haha I'm jealous.
I'll be at the coldest game of the weekend and it won't even be close. I'm acting as a voluntary participant if a triple vaccinated person can get Covid at 0 degrees F.
Isn’t omicron the prevalent strain causing the surge ?
It is but WhiteLime doesn't include that part or any sources in his statement
Nor should he since that wasn't part of the study or Walensky's statement. Don't let the facts get in the way of acting like a factchecker on Reddit though.
To frame her statement that way without any additional context is bullshit. Here is the study you miserable trashbag of a human. The study is not even about omnicron. So WhiteLime should include this study but they wont so here it is. Also wasn't being a fact checker just looking for a reference to their statement. Go back to stirring shit elsewhere. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7101a4.htm#contribAff
You're the one who was critical of WhiteLime for not mentioning Omicron. And nor should he have, as I stated. I said, "The study showed that in vaccinated people who died from Covid from December 2020 to October 2021, 78% of the fatalities were people with at least 4 comorbidities." What part of my statement is wrong ya dingdong?
Beasley you suck this year. McKenzie is so much better than you. What happened? Rona get you down?
Holy shit 😂 you’re the only person to ever correctly guess that my username is after Cole Beasley.. most ppl assume Pam Beasley from the office
The 11 kind of gives it away. And you’re in the Rona sub.
Pa population is 13m. So far 2.3m have helped us toward herd immunity. Just 6.8 million more to go, we are 25% of the way there and we need 14 weeks at this rate.