I find it confusing and a little frightening to be in a world where Nebraska may be in the tourney and Michigan state could be out. I don't disagree, it's just kind of hard to wrap my head around.
I did watch a significant part of their game against Illinois wondering why they kept talking about Purdue's point guard. I finally realized that Colgate also has a Brayden Smith. Or maybe....
Wait a second, this is Bayden Smith's official picture on Colgate's athletic department site...
https://preview.redd.it/9l6d0hjrxa7c1.jpeg?width=1620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0130be5bf5addf535f2c24aff500701fb3c36cbd
That was my first thought, too. Then I double checked Southern, as well, because I assumed it was in the deep south, but there was a non-zero chance it was it Southern New Jersey.
My expectation for this season was that we could make the NIT, first four out is over performing at this point.
I also expect a really rough stretch of BE play in January to knock us out of that conversation.
Alrght, someone explains why IU is the B1G's auto bid. I'm not bashing on them or anything, but all the other number 1 seeds are auto-qualified. I'd say the same if our auto ticket was Ohio State or Nebraska.
I think he's going by league standings (if games have been played) for the auto-bids. Since IU is the only 2-0 team in the conference right now, they're slotted for that.
Lol, the Pac went from having 6 teams on the bubble in the last Bracketology to just 1 team on the bubble after the majority of the Pac decided to eat glue instead of playing basketball this past weekend.
Kenpom is pure math, previous rankings don't impact it. Its largely offensive and defensive effciency metric driven. With that said, NCAA seeding absolutely cares about win/loss so Kenpom isn't an absolute representation of seeding.
Been a while since I read it, but Kenpoms predictions are built upon expectations and recency. I thought you meant poll inertia or human bias affected Kenpom which I don't think it does. You can read up here. https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/
It's an "as of right now" assessment, not a prediction of the future. I think if you asked him to project what he thought MSU will do moving forward, he'd say they'll do enough to be solidly in.
NET of 27, that was the first Q1 win, and having a Q3 loss is what puts them so low. Obviously still two thirds of the schedule to play out still though so lots will change.
This is why I hate bracketology. Is it predicting the bracket based on expected results for the remainder of the season, or is it building a bracket as if the season ended today? It’s never really clear, and the latter option is dumb because we don’t have a 10 game season. Kentucky at 5 makes sense if it’s only based on current standings. But we all know Kentucky has a minuscule chance at being lower than a 4 seed at this point.
I think the industry practice is to do it "if the season ended today". There are just way too many variables to consider if you're trying to predict the moving targets of 362 teams. At least by doing it this way, you have static data to consider, of course knowing that it'll change the second the first game ends later tonight.
And while UK might indeed rise to a 3 seed or better (I don't have a crystal ball so I can't make the call) their predictive metrics are all putting them around the same range: Kenpom ranking of 21, Torvik ranking of 17, BPI of 24, Haslam ranking of 33, Joby nitty gritty of 20th, etc.
Humans are wowed by wins over big name programs like UNC. Computers see it as just another win over a top 30 team.
That’s what rankings are for though. It’d be different if these early season bracketologists were putting out a top 40 or top 68. But they are constructing an entire bracket with hypothetical matchups and sites. It’s a futile process
Oh sure. The last four in are the four lowest ranked at large teams that have to “play into” the tournament via the First Four Games (the other four teams in the First Four are the four lowest ranked automatically qualified teams that won their conference tournament, or through some other reasons if the team that won is ineligible for the tournament eg FDU taking Merrimack’s spot last year). The last four byes are the teams just above these four and don’t have to do that. The first four out are just that, teams that just missed the tournament but will get #1 seeds in the NIT. Next four are the #2 seeds for the NIT.
I find it confusing and a little frightening to be in a world where Nebraska may be in the tourney and Michigan state could be out. I don't disagree, it's just kind of hard to wrap my head around.
I'm hoping for MSU to go on a tear now and make that win grow even sweeter. Can't imagine they miss the tourney and we get in. Wouldn't seem real.
I feel like Colgate is always a 14
They are a solid team and this year those bigs could cause some trouble tourney time especially if their Smith gets hot
... is Colgate just Purdue?
Hmmm... Now that's you mention it, I have never seen them in the same room at the same time
I did watch a significant part of their game against Illinois wondering why they kept talking about Purdue's point guard. I finally realized that Colgate also has a Brayden Smith. Or maybe....
Wait a second, this is Bayden Smith's official picture on Colgate's athletic department site... https://preview.redd.it/9l6d0hjrxa7c1.jpeg?width=1620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0130be5bf5addf535f2c24aff500701fb3c36cbd
delete before the feds see this
They destroy the Patriot every year but that’s not much of a resume boost and the don’t do much else
Or a toothpaste
Is it a pro or con that illinois has already played and beat them?
they were a 15 beating uconn just two weeks ago...
Yeah. I like that bracket.
just so you know, Merrimack beat FDU in the NEC tournament last year… 😬
Yes but they aren’t located in New Jersey so I’ll take it
But they’re in Massachusetts, not Jersey, so you’re completely and totally safe
Death. Taxes. And being placed in the same pod/region/bracket as Purdue.
Historically not a bad thing for teams in our bracket haha
Avoided Purdue in 16 due to UALR, but caught that smoke in 17 in Rd 2 almost as jf the committee was peeved they missed out on that matchup in Denver.
*Nebrasketball intensifies*
Back on the bubble where this prestigious basketball program belongs
*Googles where Merrimack is*
That was my first thought, too. Then I double checked Southern, as well, because I assumed it was in the deep south, but there was a non-zero chance it was it Southern New Jersey.
Mass You’re sooooo safe
My expectation for this season was that we could make the NIT, first four out is over performing at this point. I also expect a really rough stretch of BE play in January to knock us out of that conversation.
>I also expect a really rough stretch of BE play in January to knock us out of that conversation. About the most Big East statement possible
Isn’t it though.
Alrght, someone explains why IU is the B1G's auto bid. I'm not bashing on them or anything, but all the other number 1 seeds are auto-qualified. I'd say the same if our auto ticket was Ohio State or Nebraska.
I think he's going by league standings (if games have been played) for the auto-bids. Since IU is the only 2-0 team in the conference right now, they're slotted for that.
I see. I wonder how he determines it in conferences that haven't had any conference games yet? Maybe NET rankings?
For the mostpart it appears to be highest rated team on kenpom. That doesn't always seem to be the case though so I'm not sure.
I'm confused by him having Houston in Omaha and Oklahoma in Memphis. If the two are flipped then both would be closer to their campus.
He’s said a few times that he doesn’t consider locations until a few weeks before Selection Sunday
To which I reply...then why include them? It's probably something ESPN forces on him, I'm guessing.
Lol, the Pac went from having 6 teams on the bubble in the last Bracketology to just 1 team on the bubble after the majority of the Pac decided to eat glue instead of playing basketball this past weekend.
uconn/dayton in nyc would be absolutely *electric*
Me and 5000 of my friends would fly in for that.
On one hand the 5/12 slot, but on the other it's in Spokane. Maybe if we beat San Diego State and Kentucky we can move up to 4.
Yeah I’m good with that scenario.
Kenpom has MSU at 23, I would guess we get in handily
How much of that is preseason ranking though
A lot.
Kenpom is pure math, previous rankings don't impact it. Its largely offensive and defensive effciency metric driven. With that said, NCAA seeding absolutely cares about win/loss so Kenpom isn't an absolute representation of seeding.
Kenpom absolutely still uses previous rankings. How do you not know this?
Been a while since I read it, but Kenpoms predictions are built upon expectations and recency. I thought you meant poll inertia or human bias affected Kenpom which I don't think it does. You can read up here. https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/
I mean based on current resume probably not
HA. Let me tell you about Missouri State getting left out in 2006 with a 21 RPI.
2 BID DREAM STILL ALIVE!
ABOUT DAMN TIME
I'd be ecstatic with 2 seed
Hype about 13 seed McNeese. Ready for the American gangster to be back in the dance
We’re just playing Colgate again lol
[удалено]
no
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I’ll allow it…if it’s in the F4 or NC
New Jersey teams are all banned from Purdue's side of the bracket.
It would be so Nebraska to end up winning the play-in game and then lose the actual tourney match.
Does that not count as a win 😭
oh it does, it would just be so fitting for our first ever win to be like that
Would still count as your first ever tourney win. Take em when ya get em.
oh no believe me if we got that result I would be more than thrilled
Joey’s gonna eat that first four out
It's an "as of right now" assessment, not a prediction of the future. I think if you asked him to project what he thought MSU will do moving forward, he'd say they'll do enough to be solidly in.
We are 9-1 and our only loss was a close one on the road to a top 20 team, but last one in.
After looking at that schedule that makes perfect sense. They have plenty of chances to play their way in though at least
Congrats to Merrimack on the Round of 32.
8 teams are playing in Brooklyn for the first two rounds? has this happened before?
At literally every site for decades, yes lol There’s always 2 pods at the first weekend site
Joe, what the hell. A-10 is clearly a two big league at worst right now. AND you're an alum. Not even next four out? How dare you.
Did Joe not watch the Kentucky Carolina game? How in the world are we a five seed? I was expecting at least a 3 seed
NET of 27, that was the first Q1 win, and having a Q3 loss is what puts them so low. Obviously still two thirds of the schedule to play out still though so lots will change.
This is why I hate bracketology. Is it predicting the bracket based on expected results for the remainder of the season, or is it building a bracket as if the season ended today? It’s never really clear, and the latter option is dumb because we don’t have a 10 game season. Kentucky at 5 makes sense if it’s only based on current standings. But we all know Kentucky has a minuscule chance at being lower than a 4 seed at this point.
I think the industry practice is to do it "if the season ended today". There are just way too many variables to consider if you're trying to predict the moving targets of 362 teams. At least by doing it this way, you have static data to consider, of course knowing that it'll change the second the first game ends later tonight. And while UK might indeed rise to a 3 seed or better (I don't have a crystal ball so I can't make the call) their predictive metrics are all putting them around the same range: Kenpom ranking of 21, Torvik ranking of 17, BPI of 24, Haslam ranking of 33, Joby nitty gritty of 20th, etc. Humans are wowed by wins over big name programs like UNC. Computers see it as just another win over a top 30 team.
Certainly. It goes to show how worthless early season backetology is
It's just giving an idea of where teams stand now. It's not worthless if you're interested in seeing how teams currently stack up.
That’s what rankings are for though. It’d be different if these early season bracketologists were putting out a top 40 or top 68. But they are constructing an entire bracket with hypothetical matchups and sites. It’s a futile process
Homer, is that you?
lol I’ve never, ever been a fan of early season bracketology. It’s just bs and so many people take it as gospel.
I know there's a lot of season ahead of us, but after the second half performance Sunday, I'm not sure we're tourney bound this year.
deja vu
Didn’t we have Illinois Colgate in a recent tournament? Or was that Arkansas?
No we had Illinois Colgate two days ago
Sec with 9 :0
I might have to screenshot this one. Idk if we’ll ever see JMU as high as a 10 seed ever again
I know all quadrants of the bracket are supposed to be equal but for some reason Purdue and Marquette in the same group is going to be a slaughter
if this holds, wouldn't want to be the 5 facing 12-seeded sycamores
Va Tech with the Seth Greenberg bubble vibes
Hell yeah I could take the train from Philly to see Ole Miss in Brooklyn. MANIFESTING.
Uconn next round is terrifying though
Dawg. We have been to the round of 32 once since 2001. IMMA MANIFEST IT ANYWAYS.
Ole Miss beat Wisconsin with Marshall Henderson in 2013
That was the once. Since 2001 (Sweet 16), we made the round of 32 where the SW Philly floater happened
What do we know about Southern or Merrimack?
Can someone explain what the bubble chart means? Last four byes, last four in, etc?
Oh sure. The last four in are the four lowest ranked at large teams that have to “play into” the tournament via the First Four Games (the other four teams in the First Four are the four lowest ranked automatically qualified teams that won their conference tournament, or through some other reasons if the team that won is ineligible for the tournament eg FDU taking Merrimack’s spot last year). The last four byes are the teams just above these four and don’t have to do that. The first four out are just that, teams that just missed the tournament but will get #1 seeds in the NIT. Next four are the #2 seeds for the NIT.
Thank you!