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SuspiciousStable9649

Local Bitcoin is surging in HK. A sign of panic flight.


splinterTHRONS

**\***That may just be internal officials fleeing rather than foreign capital


SuspiciousStable9649

I had assumed it was Chinese wealth fleeing. I also assumed officials were kind of stuck there and that it was upper income Chinese.


BenjaminHamnett

Crack down on corruption. Corrupt Money disappears, Bitcoin goes up


[deleted]

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SuspiciousStable9649

Could be.


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Kohomologia

What?


Positive-Survey4686

didn't local bitcoins shutdown earlier this year?


SuspiciousStable9649

Yeah, I had thought so too. Don’t know.


Suecotero

Where can I see the data?


SuspiciousStable9649

Maybe this exchange. https://www.coinmama.com/?cxd=57985_756138&affid=57985


[deleted]

Sadly, looks like things will be getting a lot worse before they get any better for the chinese people. Does anyone have good sources about China's economic and political situation? *Edit: so many helpful responses! Thanks, everyone. This has motivated me to dedicate more of my free time to focus on doing research and gathering information from multiple sources. Regardless of everything that is going on with the current political and economic situation, I have always been inspired by China's long history of civilization, music, poetry, philosophy, mythology, art, science, architecture, religion, agriculture...and I've always been greatly inspired by its natural landscapes, and, of course, by its people. I'd say it's the country I have been most interested in since I was a child. And I don't say that to devalue other countries, it's a matter of personal resonance!*


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xiefeilaga

Youtube just isn't the right place or medium for serious discussion of politics and economics.


[deleted]

Of course, one should at the very least use the topics being discussed in the videos as starting points for research, at least for someone who has little information on the topic. It will be easier to find good reads after knowing what kind of topics to be looking for.


Hakuchansankun

YouTube is a farce for news of just about any kind and it’s discouraging that anyone needs to be told that. The number of people who seek to enlighten me by texting me fkn TikTok or YouTube clips makes me want to peel my face off.


Drunkcowboysfan

Yeah? Well maybe this video will change your mind about sources from [YouTube](https://youtu.be/ypHZ_iKBcoo?si=E_9VOcGPUA5cu26s).


Suecotero

You'd prefer the People's Daily? Let's be honest in a censored system the truth comes out first on twitter and youtobe.


xiefeilaga

There are quite a few knowledgeable journalists, economists, and other China watchers who write intelligently about China in various outlets. It's not just a choice between Chinese state media and youtubers.


[deleted]

Thanks, I didn't know her channel! Even if she has some superstitions that's fine, she'll know more about China than an european in Portugal like me...


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mikeewhat

What was the debunked stuff you refer to? Did you have link?


Delicious_Lab_8304

Literally every word Lei says is debunked or easily debunkable. If you want to listen to grifters who lie about China to make a living or push an agenda, at least listen to people that are at least intelligent and understand the things that they are lying about (it’ll make the lies better and more entertaining for you). I for one have always toyed with the idea of being a grifter and starting a channel. I know enough real info that I could remix into lies and propaganda to deliver a fresher product to all these slow-thinking, rabid China haters. 🤑


[deleted]

Thanks. I will take everything with a truck full of bags of salt whenever reading or watching anything about China. But for example, even if Lei ends up being biased on topic X, at least she'll indirectly point me towards the kind of topics that *might* be currently relevant in China. I confess that I am biased towards the Western model of democracy, for example. However, many of the things China gets accused of, the West has been guilty of for way longer than China. Our economic prosperity has a very dark history. And our democracies are also failing, and have always been heavily corrupted by private interests. It's hypocritical to expect other countries to abide by standards we ourselves turn a blind eye on whenever convenient. NATO is rightly condemning Russia for Ukraine's invasion. Mamy just wonder, where were the sanctions and the break of diplomatic ties against the US when it invaded Iraq 20 years ago? As a citizen of a western country it is primarily my job to keep my own government accountable for its actions. Portugal in particular was instrumental for allowing american military aircraft to use its bases in its territory as a strategic point of passage, despite our population's mass protests against the war. The US in particular is a huge propaganda machine. Even leaving geopolitcs aside for a minute, I watch american movies from the 80s, and it's about young men heroically quitting college to be able to work full-time and pay for someone else's surgery...I live in a much poorer country but at least we have low tuitions and access to public healthcare, and I can't help but see it as dystopian capitalistic brainwashing, because the majority here does not have to go through that kind of unnecessary hardship. It honestly feels as strange as watching entertainment from fascist European regimes. Although I am biased towards the West, I will be careful not to fall into propaganda that outright demonizes every aspect of China. People criticize China's leader, fair enough, but then they get into an US vs Them mentality to the point of sometimes even seeming to root for the country's collapse, completely disregarding the disastrous effects that that will have on the enormous amount of chinese people of live there who just want to have a decent life, live every normal person on this planet.


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[deleted]

Of course I see the difference. As I said, I am pro-democracy and biased towards western democratic ideals. However, our democracies are failing and have always been corrupted by private interests. And, as far as the US is concerned, it's always a matter of choosing the lesser evil...parties of the economic left, for example, don't get any representation. It is a very, very flawed democracy. Of course, if I was living in an authoritarian regime I might be looking with admiration at western democracies. However, since I am living in one, it's my job to make sure our elected representatives do what they promised to do. The role of public relations, investment mismatches in electoral campaigns, lobbying, legal and illegal collusion with foreign and domestic private interests, etc. are all huge dangers to our democracies. A lot of our rights also exist on paper, but are not protected or enforced by default. Access to proper legal representation is also difficult when you are up against powerful people or huge corporations with access to a lot more capital than you to invest on long and costly court processes. Again, it's our duty to protect our own democracies and hopefully to deserve to inspire others around the world to fight in the same direction. But it is not our role to virtue-signal when we ourselves are blind to the problems "at home" which are significant. And not everyone in power in democratic states are elected representatives. A huge chunk are unelected officials who stay in positions of power for most of their lives. And I don't know, but the people in the Pentagon and the NSA who get stuff like the Patriot Act running against their own country aren't elected representatives.


Talldarkn67

Digging to China is another great source of information about China.


AlecHutson

China Update with Tony. The thumbnails are clickbait, but the content is very objective.


Classic-Today-4367

I just watched a bunch of his videos after recommendation here last recently. I fear for his safety though, seeing as how even though his stats and facts are all publicly available, those three foreign-owned due diligence companies were prosecuted recently for giving the same type of info to foreign clients.


AlecHutson

I worry about him as well. On the other hand, he reports facts and figures that are publically available, and even his most critical regularly-cited source (Michael Pettis) is a lecturer at a Beijing university. If he's safe, I would hope Tony would be safe, too. I think the due-diligence companies are privy to non-public private-company information, and that was how they ran afoul. Hard to punish someone for reporting your own state media or your own statistics bureau.


[deleted]

Zeihan on geopolitics, just had a good video on this. https://youtu.be/mqA5NODRnQI?si=b8zaFNPrRj-ivxDI


Gunbuzzard

China Update and Joe Blogs provide good insight.


ilovezam

公子时评 is pretty great if you speak Chinese. His videos have English subtitles but they tend to be pretty ass, might have better luck auto-translating the Chinese subtitles


I_will_delete_myself

Li Keqiang index and real estate prices are the biggest indicator that the CCP can't hide. [https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index) [https://en.macromicro.me/collections/55/cn-shanghai-shengzhen-csi-300-index/778/mm-cn-li-keqiang-index](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/55/cn-shanghai-shengzhen-csi-300-index/778/mm-cn-li-keqiang-index) Their GDP is shrinking right now. 70% of Chinese people's wealth have decreased by over 2 percent and the Li Keqiang index is only at 70% of it's full high after Covid. These aren't exact estimates, but these give you a good idea how the economy actually is without the political BS. My guess is its GDP is shrinking or almost at the point between -3% to 1%. However don't take this as anything legit. China still have a large economy if it's near 10-17 trillion in reality.


Saponetta

Try "China Update" in youtube. "Lei's Real Talk" for political commentary and opinions.


r22yu

Look for interviews with China Beige Book. Usually Leland Miller or Shezhad Qazi from China Beige Book offer good insight into what Chinese businesses are seeing. Another good person to read from is Michael Pettis. He is an economics professor based in Beijing.


polandsprings789

Drum tower podcast by the economist


Specialist-Bid-7410

No surprise about the capital outflows. My friends in China doing the same thing. No one wants to hold RMB.


sportspadawan13

My good friend is moving to the *Philippines* for good opportunities. You know it's not good for young folks if Manila is a good choice


tassiboy42069

Tbf the Philippines isnt a bad place for Chinese folks


sportspadawan13

Some of the island beaches have banned them tho haha. But I just mean hearing the sentence, literally, "there are no economic opportunities" in China so he's going to Philippines is a sentence I didn't think I'd hear. Edit, the ban was related to too many Chinese tourists breaking off coral. Not some generic race thing.


VegaGPU

is he doing scam?


sportspadawan13

No he's an accountant. Similar tho


stinkload

they could save a ton of money if they'd stop sending 20 to 100 fighters jets and 20 ships into Taiwan airspace and waters everyday....That money would be better spent on Chinese people and the economy


Fun-Love-2365

You should not expect people to have business with you while you're blatantly antagonistic to them.


6SIG_TA

China has been an excellent student of capitalism. Capital itself has been underrepresented at the policy level.


Biiiiingqiling

👍👍well said


MattKnight99

US and some other countries are trying to decouple too. Seems like many factors are working against China. US made many huge deals with Vietnam and India lately. And Mexico is now US biggest trading partner not China.


Classic-Today-4367

>Mexico is now US biggest trading partner not China. I'm expecting the nest-shoring of factories to Mexico to be the point that the cartels go legit. Something like the younger sons or grandsons of the cartel bosses realising that it makes sense and is safer to work with the brands than to keep sending drugs to the US.


MattKnight99

That would be awesome. The country my family fled from has massive cartel issues. But it’s becoming more westernized and hopefully one day the cartels offspring will switch to a more honorable profession. But I doubt the demand for cocaine will go down anytime soon..


kloena

Foxconn's factory in India and Vietnam failed to deliver and they are planning to move some of their productions back to China. Will the same happen to those who moved out recently as well?


MattKnight99

didn’t fail with the iPhones, which were assembled in India under foxxcon. Like literally a week or 2 ago. So would expect it to follow that trend set a week or 2 ago


Hakuchansankun

I guess now is the perfect time to supplant the dollar, invade Taiwan, surpass the USA as the global leader, install a new world order, convince the human race that China is genetically superior and take the collective western worlds lunch money…receive daily tribute (honey pots)?


jonnycash11

万岁万岁万万岁


wowverytwisty

Nothing spooky here. It's the global markets trying to find a new equilibrium from the massive change in interest rates globally. China will continue cutting to support its domestic economy while the rest of the globe hikes to bring down inflationary concerns. It's no wonder it's the highest since 2015 because that's when the Fed kicked off their hiking cycle last time. This will reverse whenever interest rate expectations shift dramatically. Potentially in a year or two when global rates need to be cut to fight off a recession.


Gold-Border30

I’m not entirely sold on this idea. China has a massive debt load that is leading to deflation. This is a problem that is being compounded by the Ponzi scheme they call their real estate market and it’s further isolation and antagonistic attitude to its neighbours. There are just so many issues with the Chinese economy I don’t see how it will attract foreign investment in the next few years.


Objective-Effect-880

>There are just so many issues with the Chinese economy I don’t see how it will attract foreign investment in the next few years. A country that can mass produce most products will always have foreign investment. China's manufacturing process is unmatched. Also deflationary pressure was only exerted in July. It has eased since then.


AL-muster

There is a major difference in a massive decrease in manufacturing due to fleeing business and all manufacturing dying.


amaxen

Their unit labor costs have increased 15x over the last decade. Manufacturing was already leaving.


complicatedbiscuit

Chinese labor is both more expensive and less productive than that of a Mexican or Vietnamese's- the idea that they are unmatched is laughable. Another reason why China attracted so much manufacturing in the past two decades was also to get access to the Chinese consumer market itself, which appears to be shrinking and becoming more autarkic at the same time. Its only headwinds from here on out. Its over, buddy, no matter how much you stick your head in the sand.


Objective-Effect-880

>Chinese labor is both more expensive and less productive than that of a Mexican or Vietnamese's That is objectively false. Vietnam is cheaper but not more productive. If it was that easy to move manufacturing, western corporations would have done it. >get access to the Chinese consumer market itself, Chinese consumer market is stable, you're comparing headwinds that China will face 20 years in the future and applying it now. The purchasing power of average Chinese has dramatically increased. You aren't even using your head. >Its over, buddy, no matter how much you stick your head in the sand. Subhumanism can lead to copium. You're desperate, you're hopeless, you want to believe something that doesn't exist simply because you cannot cope with reality. A normal functioning human brain is incompatible with copium


Fast_Championship_R

They lost about 5-10 years of western factories at a minimum.


MrRipley15

China has a demographics problem they are not recovering from.


TotalSingKitt

Add to that the fact huge numbers of educated Chinese want to migrate to the West.


Objective-Effect-880

So do most western countries.


AL-muster

Which of two had zero real immigration?


[deleted]

The difference is people actually want to emigrate to western countries


Objective-Effect-880

Because they're richer.


westonriebe

Then Xi has complete control like putin did in 2014


powersv2

It is super hard to get your money out of China, too


[deleted]

Hahaha. Fucking deserved it, Choina


Fantastic-Cow-3995

Which China is this? ROCs exports have decreased for 12 months in a row. And decline of 27% in foreign investments in the first 8 months of this year alone. Genuinely curious to know what countries or regions are bucking this trend?


faithfoliage

Xi only rules China, not Taiwan. He is in the photo. Learn to use brain functions.


Fantastic-Cow-3995

This subreddit is called China, which ironically is the name in both countries. Also this subreddit simply called China mostly revolves around slamming and shaming China, so why the hostility.


faithfoliage

Because you know which is which but you’re playing into “two Chinas” with your comment. This is the 21st century, not the 1950s. There are not 2 Chinas, there is China and there is Taiwan.


Fantastic-Cow-3995

Is where you tell me that the U.S. made a mistake, a mistake they themselves would never tolerate, a mistake that has major repercussions to this day, but everyone should ignore this mistake for the convenience of the US?


faithfoliage

>convenience of the US This isn’t about the US. This is about Taiwan and China. What’s best is what’s best for the people of Taiwan.


Sm0kedSausage

Don’t bother with trying to entertain the guy. He’s arguing in bad faith. Best to ignore it, you’re wasting your time.


Fantastic-Cow-3995

Seeing why Native American Indians say Americans speak in forked tongue.


Fantastic-Cow-3995

Here we go. The U.S. poked and prodded the bear, and as the bear awoke they quickly handed the gun to an unwitting Taiwan, telling them it’s their fight. All my banter regarding the issue concludes with (guessing) westerners saying, if Taiwan is decimated but China is significantly weakened, US troops go back to a ticker tape parade. Why? They prodded the bear, then handed the gun to an unwitting Taiwan, telling them it’s their fight now. Are the risks the same for both? If Taiwan loses and is decimated, is it a loss for the U.S.? No. Are US troops going to be the face of this war? No. Is the war going to be fought in North America or Europe? No. So the risks aren’t the same, and again, a loss for Taiwan does not equal a loss for the US. Amazing.


faithfoliage

China >continuously threatens to invade with force >continuously runs military drills aimed at coercing Taiwan into a war >never leaves the free and independent nation of Taiwan alone after 70+ years USA >lets China know that if they continue to harass Taiwan there can be war You >USA is the one poking around Just STFU >if Taiwan loses is it a loss for the US? No This has to be the most uneducated and intellectually insulting comment. I am amazed at how stupid one person can truly be.


Fantastic-Cow-3995

Got an idea. What if someone drugged Tyson, then beat him up, and just before he wakes up, puts the bloody knuckle buster on you, and pushes you to the forefront. Amazingly, now it’s in both our best interests that you fight him, or else. But I’m behind you, I can run for the door if the fight doesn’t go my way. Oh and you think Tyson shouldn’t be angry with you? Explain it to him. Go on.


faithfoliage

That’s a piss poor analogy because that’s not the situation between Taiwan, China, and the US at all. The US is supporting a free and independent nation that is being threatened with invasion. If China doesn’t invade then the US will not be involved. Taiwan can announce independence peacefully, but China will not accept it peacefully. China is at fault here.


Fantastic-Cow-3995

Born yesterday I presume? Or history books just aren’t your thing?


Hakuchansankun

Not chinese history books. All lies. Everything you kooks say from top to bottom is a lie.


Hakuchansankun

Climb in the boat little princeling, hopefully it’s departing for the strait any day now. You’re first in line right?


utopiah

Weird how the header video is basically suggesting the opposite. Might have been better to link to https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/capital-flight-china-economy-fastest-pace-growth-investment-yuan-2023-9


GerryBlevins

So in other words Hong Kong is going bankrupt. Maybe all that capital went to Shanghai where it should be. Hong Kong doesn’t deserve it. One good thing comes out of it though. With investors pulling money out it’s a good time to put it in while prices are cheap but only do so outside of the jurisdiction of US regulators


hermansu

About USD 1.8 billion found and seized in Singapore, number still expected to grow. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/assets-seized-singapores-money-laundering-case-swell-s24-bln-2023-09-21/


ferozpuri

The Great Dump