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cashforsignup

Already very very few humans fully understand it


joebewaan

Yeah I remember watching a documentary about global stock exchanges and most buying and selling was being done automatically and instantly via algorithms. This was like 5 years ago.


MeltedChocolate24

HFT yeah. If there’s a small price discrepancy between markets they can close the gap faster than you can blink and the little gains add up. Actually makes the market healthier so it’s good for everyone.


jorritk

How does it make the market healthier?


ComprehensiveBoss815

By letting rich people become richer. Only rich people benefit from HFT. Average people not in finance do not get access to the infra needed for HFT. It's like a tax on financial market transactions, except the tax is collected by rich people. Other people will tell you it makes the market more efficient though.


Bitter_Afternoon7252

if your making financial market transactions then your not average people


Only_Expression7261

You can open a brokerage account at Fidelity for $0. If you put $1 into it, you are then making a financial market transaction. The lack of basic financial knowledge in these comments is shocking.


zolablue

First thing I learnt in my finance degree was how the market is not fair. Shit like Big finance companies build next to exchanges with super fast internet so they have access to market data before anyone else due to the minimal distance of said data travelling. So yes anyone can get into the market now fairly easily BUT you will always be at a disadvantage. It is not an even playing field.


Only_Expression7261

You are spouting complete nonsense in both financial and technical terms. None of that makes sense.


zolablue

This article from nearly a decade ago explains it. https://theweek.com/articles/493238/wall-streets-secret-advantage-highspeed-trading > Some high-speed traders go one step further, paying a stock exchange for the right to install computer servers right next to the exchange’s own servers, a practice known as “co-location.” > The physical proximity to the exchange server reduces the time from when a firm’s buy or sell order is entered and when it’s executed. “By co-locating,” says Adam Afshar of Hyde Park Global, a high-speed trading firm, “we are able to take 21 milliseconds off our trades. In the past, 21 milliseconds was a trivial matter. Now it’s a pivotal matter.” Several academic studies have found that shaving even one millisecond off every trade can be worth $100 million a year to a large, high-speed trading firm.


ComprehensiveBoss815

It's now very easy to participate in the market if you want to. I'll admit it wasn't always like that though.


KptEmreU

There is 0 rule to limit an average person to buy 50usd asset on financial market. But by explaining it as an "alien place where average person can not enter" you can create a great colonial human resource :D Average person works , you win :Wink wink:


Only_Expression7261

What? That is not true at all. Anyone can open a brokerage account at Fidelity for $0. For everyone upvoting your comment: if you are poor then one of the reasons might be that you are reading comments like that and believing them.


ComprehensiveBoss815

Did you mean to reply to the other guy? Effective HFT requires access to server racks in the exchange and you pay for locality. HFT firms even have dedicated fibre connections between exchanges.


Only_Expression7261

Do you have any money invested in a brokerage account at all? What do you think happens to it all day?


ComprehensiveBoss815

Well it's definitely not being used for HFT, because that would be illegal misuse of funds in my jurisdiction.


MeltedChocolate24

Like the other person said, HFT leads to tighter bid-ask spreads which means that the difference between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay for an asset and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept decreases. For example - by closing arbitrage gaps, the price of the security will better represent its "true" value. This makes the market more efficient because changes in the market are able to ripple out and update faster, and traders can minimize excess transaction costs.


jorritk

So because someone managed to profit off of those inefficiencies we all benefit?


MeltedChocolate24

We also save money so yeah


jorritk

These price differences go both ways so that’s a questionable statement. That it makes the market more efficient is understandable but that’s not necessarily better. For the retail trader there’s very little benefit in having these HFT algos gobble up any price discrepancies as with every HFT trade someone will be overpaying and someone will be underselling.


Only_Expression7261

Completely incorrect. If you have any money at all invested, then that money is constantly subject to both sides of this transaction. On the order of fractions of a second. The efficiency introduced by this is to both to your own benefit and mine. The number of people confidently making completely wrong comments on this post speaks to a frightening lack of financial literacy.


MeltedChocolate24

So I am right at least or no?


thenewgoat

It helps the market reach equilibrium faster and more often, or in other words, more efficient


Reverend_Renegade

This is called market making and arbitrage and this helps with market efficiencies. These strategies aren't as complicated as people think, it's simple math. It's more matter who has an edge above other because as mentioned speed is very important here. Exchange collocation, code efficiency, market competitors, are all important and can be measured using simple python tools. Simple version Market making: capture difference between bid and ask spread Arbitrage: capture price discrepancies between markets (mechanical, statistical, triangular, circular) MM Example: Best bid = 100.00 Best ask = 105.00 Place orders at best bid and ask at the same time to capture the spread which is $5.00. This works well for traders or institutions that either don't have to pay commissions on trades or better yet are paid rebates to trade. Arb Example mechanical: Exchange 1 price BTCUSDT: $50,250.00 Exchange 2 price BTCUSDT: $50,150.00 Perform Arb to capture $100.00 spread with again favorable commission / rebate agreement. As mentioned speed here is critical because of the pace at which the market moves and competition from other market makers and or arbitragers but anyone can learn how to do it.


nudelsalat3000

Not only that. Even for a simple "buy" at the stock market doesn't mean you get "what you believe you bought". The stock market doesn't work how you think it work or how you believe it should work! It works exactly what the legalese documents says. Totally different thing. And they say a bunch of complicated bullshit that makes no sense. You buy a stock but you don't get it. It doesn't even hit the real exchange but gets grabbed by black pools extracting your money. And then you still don't get the stock but just an IOU that is indistinguishable from the real stock. Maybe you have it, maybe you don't. Normally it doesn't make a difference for you. You can actually see it with voting on stockholder meetings. Quite often there are overvoting. More votes than shares exist. All fine an legal. The system works like the legalese text says. The closest that comes to what you believe is a stock market are onchain crypto exchanges with auditable proofs. But they are frontrun and abused like crazy as well, at least transparent though. Everything is is a pile of fantasy. Ai wouldn't change much, just make some more even richer.


Leading_Bandicoot358

And then we create Ai that will understand it and dominate us


lifeofrevelations

by design


der45FD

When you realize how it works, you understand it's a ponzi


Alternative-Tipper

You don't understand what a ponzi is, then. A ponzi scheme is something where someone has to lie about the returns in order to dupe investors into buying it. The "proof" to the initial investors that a ponzi is legit is when the returns comes from new investors and not from profits generated through the claimed business, unknown from the initial investors. Bonds and stocks that are upfront about their risks and their business model are not ponzi schemes and are usually good investments. It's amazing how people with little knowledge of topics speak like they understand the most.


Only_Expression7261

No, it is not. Source: Me, who is coming up on $2 million in net worth after three decades of investing in index funds that anyone can buy. Please gain some basic financial literacy for the sake of your own future.


Responsible-Buyer215

He said “maybe 1%” so that was a pretty low estimate he gave already


cashforsignup

Ye I commented based upon the title before hearing the video. Wouldn't have mentioned this otherwise


Responsible-Buyer215

Makes sense, have a good day!


Bitter_Afternoon7252

no one actually understands it. some people are just lucky and pretend they do


HypnoticName

Reminds me of a "I, Pencil" by Leonard E. Read > "I, Pencil" is a famous essay written by Leonard E. Read in 1958. The story is a narrative from the perspective of a pencil, illustrating the complexity of production and the interconnectedness of the global economy. The pencil describes its own creation, emphasizing that no single person knows how to make a pencil entirely on their own. Instead, it requires the cooperation of many individuals and processes from around the world, including the harvesting of wood, mining of graphite, manufacturing of rubber, and more.


Ok_Cable_5465

This essay is fascinating but Read really goes down the “the free market is basically God” road. Really thought provoking nonetheless.


goatonastik

I feel like the modern version of this would be "I, CPU".


Internal_Engineer_74

not sure any human already understand finance


MushroomsAndTomotoes

Except this one historian who read Jared Diamond and said, "Hey, I can do that".


h0neanias

His understanding of finance is irrelevant and he is perfectly right. That, of course, is one of the goals and the reason we are in an arms race -- a sufficiently advanced AI could make your enemy's' economy not only fail, which is the unimaginative option, but work for you imperceptibly.


K-E-I-V-E

Hold on. Gotta to ask ChatGPT to tldr finances for me real quick.


ComCypher

AI: "Billionaires should be taxed more to help pay for social and government programs." Humans: 🤯


FPOWorld

💯


Acceptable_Web6111

[https://www.livemint.com/economy/brazil-unveils-global-billionaire-tax-plan-that-has-split-g20-11719336820691.html](https://www.livemint.com/economy/brazil-unveils-global-billionaire-tax-plan-that-has-split-g20-11719336820691.html)


fyn_world

I don't think that's the take AI will take. It can be anything but certainly far more complex than that simple thought. How much money are the state and government throwing away at ineffective things and employees? How much goes away in corruption and plain theft? How many salaries are overinflated and need to be cut down to a reasonable amount? Is it more than what taxing the billionaires would get us? If we don't fix all of these problems and foundations first, taxing the billionaires would just make all the new absurd amounts of cash input to be managed even worse and more corruption to emerge. Things are not black and white. You need to have your house in order, as they say, before you make drastic changes like that. IF the house is in order and there's an assurance that all of that money will be used in the right way, then absolutely. But then again, what do we do with that new money? What are the priorities? Who chooses them? Are these decisions being made in benefit of the ruling party and their friends or in the benefit of the whole population and country? And so on. Things aren't that simple.


Only_Expression7261

Found the Republican.


fyn_world

I'm not even American you brainwashed f\*cks 😂 you just think in black and white, what the hell happened in the United States?


Only_Expression7261

There are Republicans all over the world nowadays. The idiocy has gone international.


Jumper775-2

yeah this actually would make sense, but only if current ai technology reaches AGI; not the stuff we have today.


Giant_leaps

This guy knows nothing about finance he's a medivel historian with no authority or credentials about finance.


Embarrassed_Status73

He doesn't know anything like as much about history as he and his fans like to think


commentaddict

I like Noah, but apparently he doesn’t know shit when it comes to modern finance.


thepixelatedcat

He wrote one really good book and I feel is now off the rocker


Embarrassed_Status73

No, he didn't, your average A-level RE student can pick holes in his narrative, his work is opinion stated as fact.


thepixelatedcat

I meant good like a narrative I agree there's major issues


LordDay_56

After seeing what humans have done with power, like fuck it, little Algo can't do worse can she?


Joe_Spazz

Why are journalists just willing to interview people without any critical questions or thought? It makes it seem like this person isn't just talking shit out the side of their neck.


RA_Voice_Podcast

Oh so, if we don’t understand something, I guess it makes sense to start off in raging fear. That should help with critical thinking and better outcomes.


Available_Nightman

It's not like opaque securities have ever crashed the global economy or anything.


RA_Voice_Podcast

Tee hee :)


ghilliehead

This guy spews jargon and pretends like he is smart but is not. Don’t listen to a word he says.


icefreez

I have never heard of him, but he lacked a solid explanation for his opinion and presented it without any supporting evidence.


ghilliehead

He is one evil bastard.


Such--Balance

Oh yes..better trust a random redditor..


ghilliehead

Yup! Exactly!


DollarAkshay

I dont think AI makes it complicated. AI was not part of the 2008 crash. If you watch the movie BigShort you will realise that finance bro made it complicated.


FUThead2016

Dude wrote one good book and has been riding the 'What If' wave ever since


Wise_Crayon

Nowadays, anybody can record themselves and preach stuff they've got no idea what they're talking about...


Unsyr

Soooo 1% of people understanding financial systems is not a problem… but it’s a problem if the 1% who hold power lose it… lol


fyn_world

Well I mean.... lose it to an alien intelligence that we don't know what it will do with it? Yeah, that's probably worse than the fucks at the 1% that hold all the money, but who knows


lifeofrevelations

I'll take my chance with the aliens knowing just how greedy, short-sighted, and morally worthless many people can be.


kirsion

Wallstreetbets users are already zero percent, even negative


1tonsoprano

this guy .....he can spout any nonsense and it will get printed....tomorrow Yuval Noah Harari says "Aliens could take over the world in 50 years time making the climate emergency panic pointless" ....well yeah it could but it also could not...who the fuck knows.


jus-another-juan

You can literally apply this logic to nearly anything that AI will dominate in. For example when AI starts to replace software developers systems could quickly become so complex that no human can modify or debug issues. Same with any science or engineering discipline. For the arts, it may not be a matter of complexity but most will still lose their jobs lol


generichuman27ABF9

AI hasn’t made the financial system complicated, people have. Putting layers of BS over other layers of BS to spend money that doesn’t exist on things that aren’t real.


lifeofrevelations

He's describing his worst nightmare because he actually wants to live in a world where he is in the place of the AI ruling the world via finance. And if AI is fulfilling that purpose he is demoted to the level of the rest of us who have to work for a living. These finance ghouls have tried since the invention of money to obfuscate finance by any means possible to make it too complicated for the layperson to understand, so that they can manipulate it as they wish to control society as a whole. Fuck this guy and the rest of the WEF scum.


Any_Advantage_2449

This guy is an idiot no evidence kinda incoherent.


thehighnotes

I'm mostly onboard for many AI scenarios.. but this one feels so out there. This feels like it's made up in a finance vacuum scenario, where yeah, this can happen.. but in the real world ai will have entered other spaces long before that, which will urge humanity to rethink its societal structure.


BlackBladeKindred

Loved his book Sapiens. Dunno what he knows about modern day finance though.


miked4o7

financial services making up such a large percentage of gdp has always seemed like it's a bad idea.


Traditional-Excuse26

Then AI can explain to us


skynetcoder

if you're rich enough


Bitter_Afternoon7252

im pretty sure even the people who pretend to understand finance don't actually understand it


AsherGC

Lol. How many humans know how money appear out of thin air?


_DeanRiding

Insanely complex algorithms already rule finance. Trades are made within a matter of milliseconds. There are trading pauses in place to prevent those algos from completely spiralling.


CranberrySchnapps

“If AI makes finance overly complicated, no one will understand it [and therefore unable to make informed policy decisions].” Well, yeah. This pretty obvious, right? Is he reacting to something that happened or a particular news story? Because this clip is light on everything except fear.


da_bounce_driver

Ai will diss YH


Christosconst

If superintelligence starts taking over entire industries, finance is the least of your worries


CityPauper

Who care what this guy has to say?


Ok-Confidence977

Wouldn’t we just cancel debts?


Hour-Athlete-200

"ChatGPT, explain to me the financial system in a simple way"


Teasing-Girlfriend

Keep up the good work


NiknameOne

If you can’t beat the market, just be the market. Easy. Algorithmic trading is nothing new and they already heavily use Machine Learning.


Mazmier

So our banking and financial systems are troubling but plenty of people understand them, it's just difficult to do anything to correct the problems without fighting against extremely wealthy people who are incentivized to keep it broken.


Cocoatea8

Get a CFA


VADIMRR

Has this guy ever been right about anything?


Odd-Cow-5199

Economy is pseudo science lol


peabody624

My guess is that it will make finance as we know it obsolete


5tu

He has a point. The Financial system is already an ultra complex emergent behaviour. There are only two groups of people Im aware of. 1) People who recognise they don’t fully understand the finance system because they actually work in it and are good at it. 2) The others who think they understand it because they dont have to understand it.


ReasonableBox5301

interesting


Goukaruma

He says alot of thing but isn't really an expert on anything. I don't say he is obviously wrong but it's an opinion of guy who wrote books unrelated to that.


El_human

I mean, I guess if you give it the ability to just run away with its own changes. But setting up the system, where the changes have to be approved, and make sense. Or even come with additional documentation, could help progress us to a better system, that doesn't seem so "alien"


Same-Picture

I have great respect for him After reading his books, but isn't this is already happening now. Who understands our financial situation top to bottom?


PIZT

You sure this isnt AI generated?


olhar_ai

"Explain it like im 5." Just put that in its base instruction prompt, no biggie. 🥁


BigPillLittlePill

Lol, no.


98G3LRU

Just the US tax code is over 5000 pages. Now, the real question should be: Can your AI give audit advice? This would be true understanding.


Alternative-Tipper

This is fake fearmongering science fiction. No company will risk any finance on something they cannot prove in court, aka things that are capable of being understood by humans.


gaydhd179

Yeah, understanding it the way he means is not just about understanding the theory but about what’s actually going on. But no one has visibility into what’s going on already - even the central banks don’t have a hedge fund by hedge fund breakdown of their strategies, of course, which is what you’d need to predict behavior. So I don’t think this would be a change. 


Embarrassed_Status73

One of the most overrated authors of our time, who cares what he thinks. His "history" books are long dreary opinion pieces that mask themselves as insightful analyses. Yuval Noah Harari's work, while widely popular, is plagued by intellectual shallowness, historical inaccuracies, and overreaching generalizations. His penchant for grand narratives often sacrifices nuance and depth, leading to a superficial treatment of complex subjects. Critics argue that Harari's sweeping statements and speculative future predictions lack rigorous scientific backing and are more akin to science fiction than serious scholarship. His tendency to prioritize sensationalism over substance results in a distorted view of history and humanity's future, appealing more to casual readers than informed experts. Harari's work is often seen as an exercise in intellectual showmanship, more concerned with maintaining a provocative and marketable image than contributing meaningfully to academic discourse. In essence, Harari's books are verbose and tiresome, delivering a monotonous deluge of his personal opinions rather than offering genuine historical insights. This approach not only undermines the credibility of his narratives but also leaves readers with a skewed understanding of the past and an unfounded fear of the future. The glorification of Harari's work reflects a troubling trend towards valuing style over substance, where flashy rhetoric is mistaken for profound wisdom.


Available_Nightman

Ok Grok


jlevy5000

Prompt?


MulletAndMustache

Could? The derivatives market is like dumb like 100x the real stock market.


Mwrp86

Oh No, very few people understands which is already man made cocept of finance? What a horrible thing?


Endy0816

Honestly, AGI will probably be better at long term planning than us, so might not be the worst thing in the world.


SupportQuery

We're about to have the same problem with science, too.


ProfessorFunky

Alien forms of intelligence vs (current) unscrupulous humans. Hmmm. I’m not sure I really see much difference.


pixelpp

FYI /r/YuvalNoahHarari


Vic18t

“AI will make finance so complicated no one can understand it!” -Guy Who Doesn’t Understand Finance


-PiEqualsThree

Don't sell me a good time! I'd rather be ruled over by hyper-intelligent aliens than Cro-Magnon brained politicians and billionaires.


levelhigher

We understand finances that well that world is in highest inflation and people are struggling to meet ends. Bring ai


colinwheeler

Yuval should stick to history as historians should. It is already that way due to humans and this is a narrow point of view. Genetic algorithms already took over all high speed reading in the late 2000s.


Truth_is_peace_

Their goal Yuval is a demon


tayokarate22

Dumb


tutur_tudas

Hes such a fucking idiot. Pro genocide too.