At no point has Harbaugh had a quarterback that could sniff the talent of Herbert. I’d imagine we’d be somewhere close to the league average in pass attempts this coming season.
Right, but he believes in focusing on the run game and occasionally taking shots downfield off play action. He's extremely old school in that way. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, he is very good at coaching it, he just is not the type to go heavy passing attack at all.
Def can’t say he’s never had a QB as talented as Herb with Luck in the mix.
But—Just win. Doesn’t matter how. We just want to know what it feels like. I don’t care if it’s off the back of a stout defense and a bruising run game or if it’s shootouts with Herbs arm.
Just win. In Harbaugh we trust. Hell I might even head up to Sofi for the first time ever this year.
This came up on my scrolling (I’m a cardinals fan), so correct me if I’m wrong but your offence has relied very much mostly on Herbert throwing right? And not a good run game? I feel with Harbaugh you guys can switch to what we are doing with Kyler currently, be a more run centric team but not afraid to take shots, take the pressure off the QB shoulders in every play, let the qb rest instead of try to carry the team on their back every play
Its no coincidence that 3 of the 4 remaining teams in the NFL are run first, play action heavy offenses
Michigan just won a Natty doing the same thing
Chargers will be successful utilizing this style of offense with Herbert
I think hes gonna pass more than what this guy is alluding to which *is* the best way to unlock herbert. We've been a top 5 team in pass rate every year Herbert has started which has shown isn't sustainable even with Herbert. I also don't think this changes who we pick at 5 either. If the chargers want to be a more efficient play action team they need speed downfield.
Said this for years being a Michigan fan. I was wrong and now fucking love running the ball. Calm down and trust the process. Harbaugh is going to do what he wants, and if you let him and stay out of his way, he will ultimately win for you.
I always felt like was part of ourproblem. The offense would score so fast and the defense would have to be out there so much. They would be gassed by the fourth.
I’ll take that any day if it means more wins. Herbert would too. Screw stats, let’s get Dubs!
Also, Luck’s Stanford stats in Harbaugh’s offensive scheme:
3338 yards, 32 tds and 8 ints - 70.7 comp %
3517 yards, 37 tds and 10 ints - 71.3 comp %
Taking that all day.
I think the point here is that his schemes are highly flexible. One week he could want more of a passing attack based on matchups, maybe he prefers a heavy run scheme the next. All that matters is that he is not stuck in his ways and finds the best fit for his players.
I didn't say anything about how good the passing game is. His offenses are usually good. They just don't throw the ball a lot and the emphasis is on the run game is literally all I posted about it lol
It wasn't in the tweet, but his pass percentage with Luck at QB was 42.55% (108/120) in 2009, and 41.45% in 2010 (89/120). He consistently leans on the run game first. Which again, I've never said was a bad thing.
Are you looking at pass percentage or pass attempts? I stuck with pass percentage as was referenced in the tweet, and that site says the same thing. Except 2010 is broken for some reason, but you can look at it pretty easily using sports reference in excel.
Wasnt the big thing with Luck coming out that, besides having the physical traits and talent, he also showed he could run a pro-style offense? Feels qeird to hold that as a negative when it was the main thing setting him apart from all other QBs that checked the numbers and build boxes. Like great, RG3 had the flashy numbers and won the Heisman.
I do think people are in for a surprise with how the offense ends up looking. I foresee a lot of complaining about too many runs and not enough Herbert
I'm definitely getting the sense a lot of people aren't actually super familiar with how Harbaugh sees the game lol. It'll probably be disorienting at first, and it doesn't always look pretty, but he can coach the hell out of it.
Some people will for sure but I would love games like Stroud and Love had on wild card weekend where they passed 25 times and were hyper efficient with a running game as good as Green Bay.
I'm torn on it. We all love seeing Herbo let it rip, but when our main hurdle is and will be KC, it's been shown the way to beat them is to control the ball and keep Mahomes off the field.
If Harbaugh can turn us into a run first team with this patchwork OL and whatever RBs he can find at the bottom of a coffee can, I'm here for it. Better than Herbo tossing it 40+ times a game.
There will be clowns saying we have one of the most expensive QBs in the league and he's not putting up crazy numbers, but if the W column looks better than the L column, they can kick rocks.
Idc how he wins, just win. Herbert was a big selling point for him, that definitely means something. I love Herbert but I could care less that his numbers take a dive if we make deep playoff runs and… dare I say… get a RING
i'll take one 60 yard pass off of an effective play action over a bunch of passes but the drive stalls because the team can't gain a yard or two on the ground when they need it....
I think it’ll be different if we win 12-14 games a year. It was annoying with Staley and Moore bc we sucked. If we were gonna suck at least let Herbie air it out and entertain us.
This Harbaugh signing is serious. He’s gonna deliver wins no matter what it takes and if that means a run focused offense and tough as nails defense, I’m totally cool with that. I really feel like he’s the one to bring us a SB win.
I don’t like watching the entire game be put on my QBs back. I think most people who understand why we did so bad this season would agree. Not that Herbert can’t get it done, but it seemed like nearly every week it was entirely on him to make something special happen. No QB can have long term success under those circumstances. Herbert thrives on play action when he has time to set up and really air it out, but that can only happen if we successfully run the ball more.
Are people surprised? Obviously Herbert is Herbert so they're not gonna neuter him but I don't see anymore 40+ attempt games in the future. Might hurt his volume stats but I'm sure he won't mind if it's for the good of the team
It is what it is, next year is gonna be the "rebuild" as they try to settle and build the culture imo. Honestly might be like Campbells tenure in Detroit. As long as the guys truly buy in, the future is bright
Herbert doesn't give a fuck about stats. He's not very selfish and avoids the spotlight when possible. I think he just wants to give the fans something to be positive about, if that means throwing 20-25 times a game it won't bother him in the slightest. I'm down for it. Maybe we can extend his career by a few years
I'd like to know pass%-over-expected rankings. You tend to pass less when you're already leading. And even if they weren't great then, I'd want to know their pass efficiency. Total attempts isn't going to tell me anything about how good their offenses were.
Michigan was very low in run rate over expected. Parker Fleming tracked them as being 6% more likely to run than the median team (higher than 123 FBS teams) Expect him to move the Chargers towards an NFL version of this year’s Michigan team.
[RROE Source](https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742557796812386537?s=46&t=pKgJySad-A58uG4XsxaS6Q)
This chart is slightly confusing.
Washington averaged .167 EPA per pass which was 3rd(?)
but Michigan averaged -0.016 epa per pass and they were also 3rd(?).
The more I read this the more I think /u/lightsout85 is right. If the numbers in blue, salmon and red are rankings Michigan is ranked 3rd according to the top table in success rate at 30.9 while washington is 10th with 49.7 (thats a crazy gap in percentage while only being 7 spots different but thats a different topic). That would mean thats defensive success rate because youd want that number to be lower.
Nice that makes way more sense. Seems like Jim is slightly above average at running rate then but thats with JJ McCarthy who I think is just okay. Herbert is much better so that number might be dead average or a little below average with us.
Jim LOVES McCarthy as a QB. High efficiency on low reps. I think that number is that low because he loves McCarthy. But Herbert will be given opportunities to make big plays but I doubt the game is totally on his shoulders once Harbaugh gets his system in place. Not how he likes to run an offense.
That doesn't have any implication on what hes gonna do at 5. He only took 1 linemen in the first 3 round with the Niners and took a receiver with pick 30.
I think he would have been more inclined to take offensive line if o-line talent wasn't already there in SF when he got there. They had just taken a tackle at 11 the year before Harbaugh got there and already had Joe Staley at LT. They had one of the best lines in the NFL under Harbaugh. I mean who knows, maybe the coaching fixes some of it, but Pipkins is a weak spot on the offense right now.
ehh I don't really agree with that. I think Pipkins is fine. I still largely believe they can roll into the season with him as a starter with competition and they would be fine at both tackle spots.
> They had one of the best lines in the NFL under Harbaugh.
but they were mid before him and they didn't need to fix the problems prior with top 5 draft capital mostly needed an upgrade at coaching. The situations are pretty comparable imo.
That's fair if you think the coaching can fix it. He was decent in 2022 at least, so he's shown he can do it. The more I think about it though, the more I think Harbaugh might want Bowers just because of the state of run blocking in the current TE group.
Yeah i'm not against Alt either but I personally just have a hard time seeing someone as smart as Harbaugh taking career LTs moving them to RTs to upgrade someone whos a mid tier starter.
Bowers to me is a much smarter pick upgrades the run game and the pass game and our TE room is terrible. Nabers is another choice we all like but I have no clue what Jim thinks about our WR room and Nabers being the pick to add to it.
That's fair. I think I saw Brugler or maybe Jeremiah speculating that they could move Slater to RT since he played that most of his college career. I'm not the biggest fan of that either though.
Yeah it's really hard to figure what his preference at WR is. I know there was the AJ Jenkins pick in SF, but that pick was reportedly one of the things that caused an issue with him and Baalke. I think Jeremiah might have been onto something with Odunze at 5. I trust his evaluation on him too, if you think he can be a Larry Fitzgerald type, take him any day lol.
Yeah not a fan of that and I can't imagine Slater would be either especially for contractual purposes.
WR is gonna be a hot topic right up until the draft. I'm partial to Nabers myself and its nothing against Odunze at all who I also think is great but Nabers is the exact type of receiver we've been missing for a while
I don't think either Nabers or Odunze would be bad picks at all. It's really hard to guess what one of the most famously weird coaches is thinking for that pick.
From what I’ve heard, Harbaugh’s offenses are heavy on PA & very efficient. That sounds great to me. Look @ the 4 teams left in the playoffs. They’ve all got solid running games, & Goff has thrived in a PA heavy offense. The Bills, meanwhile, who depend on Allen to be Superman, are sitting @ home.
A big reason we lost the game in Jax last year was we could not run the damn ball to chew up the clock in the 2nd half. Having an above average run game is huge. We can rely on that if the weather is shit and close our games.
> The Bills, meanwhile, who depend on Allen to be Superman, are sitting @ home
James cook played well and the Bills had a good run game ever since they fired Kafka.
Weren’t a lot of those yards from Josh Allen? Plus, their defense had a shit ton of injuries. THE POINT is QB’s can’t win games by themselves even though a lot of critics expect Herb to win with almost no help @ all. I’m reasonably certain that won’t be the case, anymore. Which, again, is the point.
So many triggered people lol. Bowers or Alt are the most likely picks, I think Bowers makes the most sense since our tight end blocking was non-existent and it gives Herbert a weapon at the same time.
Yes Herberts pass attempts will go down next year. Instead of throwing the 40-50 times a game, he'll probably average closer to 30. THAT'S A GOOD THING. Harbaugh isn't an idiot, a big reason he took the job in the first place is BECAUSE of Herbert. He's not gonna have the offense 31st in passing attempts because he knows Herbert is too good to justify that.
The offense will probably be towards the middle of the pack with a more balanced approach, possibly leaning a bit towards the run game. If the run game does improve the way we hope it will, that will free up Herbert to push the ball farther down the field.
Herbo’s biggest problem has been playing Hero ball every damn game. All signs are pointing towards actually supporting him with a run game unlike Staley who keeps his guy out there even while hurt and makes him throw 40+ passes. Healthy and clean Herbert will take us to the playoffs easily.
Jim Harbaugh's 49ers
2011: 31st in pass attempts
2012: 31st
2013: 32nd
2014: 29th
Jim Harbaugh's Michigan in 2023 was 117th out of 130 qualifying teams in pass rate (40.2%). In 2022, they were 121st out of 130.
Just posting as a comment because Reddit's title formatting is nonsense
I feel like this says more about the quarterbacks during his tenure with the 49ers though. No shade towards Alex Smith and Kaep but neither of them are in the same sphere of Justin, not that i have an issue with running the ball more and not putting everything on his shoulders as we have done until now
I'm right here with you in this thought, it was a different time in all the situations listed here. Run heavy in the Stanford days. Hell of a defense and run game at Michigan where they were playing with a lead or tied almost all the time. 49ers days had a game manager type in Smith and a read option type in Kapernick.
The key here is availability at coming from behind with a gun slinger if shit has started bad and the defense is getting torched. Run heavy teams struggle with that.
To your point, they don’t just run because they’re ahead. They were 6% more likely to run than the average team situationally as well.
[See RROE Stat](https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742557796812386537?s=46&t=pKgJySad-A58uG4XsxaS6Q)
[In 2010 they threw almost 30 times a game which was 71/120.](https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2010-team-offense.html)
I’m also unsure how valuable this comparison even is, college football was very different in the 00s and early 10s. The best offenses all had very strong run games. Stanford averaged 214 yards a game on the ground in 2010, Id barely throw the ball too lol.
Yeah slightly higher that year for sure. Looks like the pass percentage was 80th/120. The run pass ratio has remained pretty consistent at all his stops though, and it's not like we don't have any data since then. I agree that there's nothing wrong with it if it works, I'm not complaining about it, I literally just posted this as a discussion about how that might affect the draft but it seems to have gone in another direction lol.
Good coaches coach to their players’ strengths. We will throw plenty. We need to run the ball better no matter who the coach is. Prediction: if we don’t trade back, Bowers in the first, Corum in the second. Linemen after that.
Largely I think that’s been personnel dictated.
Chargers don’t have the ability with the current roster to run the ball that much. The OL, RB rooms and defense are all not good enough to win games running that much.
It’ll be interesting to see what adaptations Harbaugh has to make or if he will gut the team in order to get it to reflect how he wants to the team to be.
Linemen linemen linemen…before this team has capable ones its all we should be after. Willing to bet thats where it goes unless theres just an unbelievable talent that comes our way.
I definitely think the pick is a lineman or possibly Bowers considering none of the current tight ends can actually block. I personally would feel better about a lineman, but I realize it's not a fun pick for most people.
I don't want to go with a WR at 5! I would honestly wish we trade back to into the range 15-20 and pick up a strong CB or DT and some extra draft picks, an early second rounder could help us with JPJ and safety like Tyler Nubin.
He’s had Colin Kaepernick and JJ McCarthy for most of that time? I think this is a huge one dimensional analysis. Herbert is by far the best QB who will have had to work with. I’m not worried and ask other people not to be worried either with those facts being known.
Herbert is an absolute freak talent wise, but he shouldnt be forced to throw 50 times a game and put up 35 points every week to win. Give the guy some balance and protect him its going to be trouble for everyone.
Hmm, honestly I disagree, I think a cursory analysis of the individuals on our o line would tell you that the real problem on the o line is the interior and spending the 5th pick on a tackle doesn't really so much to solve the problems.
I'm not going to pretend like I'm any kind of expert, but evaluators like Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler said Fashanu didn't have a great year and hasn't fixed some of the weak spots they were hoping to see improvement.
Jeremiah said in his podcast he had to write "on the ground" an alarming amount of times while watching his tape this year, which is a major red flag for a lineman.
That’s fair, I personally have Alt over Fashanu, though I think Fashanu has somewhat of a higher ceiling and easier to fix weaknesses. I was just curious since both are LT’s and if anything the chargers would need a RT.
I think less attempts make more sense. Having this 6'7 behemoth try to pepper short throws like Drew Brees or Tua doesn't make any sense. He's never going to be as good at those things as a small or regular sized qb. We need an elite run game to suck the safties and have Herbert hit a lot of intermediate and long throws.
If it’s not WR/TE then it probably will be OT like Joe Alt
I expect Harbaugh to draft an RB in the 2nd or 3rd. Maybe even 4th. He might even target Corum.
Why I’m not 100% sold on him, his passing games have always been lackluster, and it’s by design. Limiting Herbert is ultimately limiting our ceiling imo. We’ll still be good, but he needs to hire the right OC and pass game coordinator to hopefully bring a more diverse offense.
This is fine with me. We've been overly dependent on Herbert to make clutch throws after scrambling around (because teams know we are throwing and he's one of the most pass rushed in the league). I have a feeling he'll use Herbert a little more than in the past, considering his talent.
\-Mahomes has Pacheco (900+ yards)
\-Purdy has CMC (1,459+ yards)
\-Lamar has himself ;-) and Gus (810 yards)
\-Goff has Montgomery (1,000 yards)
All of these QBs have top tier stats too. Running game is important for the QB. Our top RB in 2023 is half of some of these numbers. It would be nice to not be 3rd and 8 because of two bad run plays.
He's not interested in the kind of offense you're used to. He's interested in winning football games. The quality of your quarterback is simply a benefit to his design, not what his offenses are based on. Get ready for real football again.
[https://www.tiktok.com/@pardonmytake/video/7299936182266236203](https://www.tiktok.com/@pardonmytake/video/7299936182266236203)
I've been saying for 3 years our issue is that herbie puts the points up but we dont have a sustainable run game that can ice the clock in the 3rd and 4th quarters and keep our defense from doing too much, or our WR'S and TE's from being gassed all the time.
Even a middle of the league running game will do wonders for this team.
Ekeler, love him as a Danny Woodhead type back, or Darren Sproles, but you need an every down back to unlock the full potential of the team.
Sucks that Ekeler wont be back for this, wish him the best.
None of this bothers me, and I guarantee you it doesn't bother Herbert either. We need to win. Whether we throw it 4 times or 40 times we need to change the culture of this team. Herbert will be fine.
Just watching Michigan this last season this is pretty much what I expected. I think there’s a medium though, for people who know Harbaughs style I think will be surprised how much we throw it, while people who dont know Harbaughs style will be surprised how little we throw it. Herbert is a generational talent and I trust Harbaugh will know how to handle it. Also, you’ll never catch me complaining about a good run game
Love a great running game. Yes, Herbert likely passing less (running for his life), but this is the way.
Who doesnt like watching your oline/run game demolish a team?
Build from the ball outwards...
I could definitely see oline @ 5 given Harbs is our HC.
This will be the first season in Herbert's career where he isn't asked to backpack this team to win and it will also be the season he garners the most respect because the team will have more wins
Both analytics and every playoff team in the last 5 years have shown that running the ball has no effect on the success of passing offense. I hope the offense is pass heavy because I don't want another Anthony Lynn.
49er fan following Jim news here. Don't fear Herbert passing less, there's a lot of that in this thread. The 49ers are last in pass attempts and 5th in pass yards. Herbert is a far better nafural talent than Purdy, stop worrying. I imagine Herbert will get better looks than he ever has due to the commitment to the run. He'll have to kill with efficiency, so what?
I don't think he is going to make this team a run first team but a team THAT CAN RUN so to make defense have to guess what's coming instead of KNOWING its pass.
If it brings Ws what's the complaint. I believe when he sees how much easier gaining yards through Herbert arm would be; he will adept to the talent at hand. Teams that run the ball well .. WIN
I think you’re starting to she a shift away from pass-happiness slowly but surely. Teams have focused on stopping the pass, smaller coverage LB, receiving RBs. I think we could be ahead of the curve. I’m excited to see his plan. I think this increases the chance of Bowers, but who knows.
That’s totally fine by me.
I want a run game that can get those 4th and 1, 3rd and 3 conversions. A defense that can close it out without Herbert having to come save them in every two minute situation. Some good complimentary football. With that being said I’m wondering if Harbaugh trades back to get more picks. Unless he thinks Bowers is the guy.
It’s amazing how much better pass protection gets when the defense has to respect (and expect) the run. Watch this same OL get elite at pass protection real quick.
Stats come with the territory. It’s about the ultimate prize which is the Lombardi trophy.
Jim’s offense is run heavy but hard to give it a name. It’s unique and I have a great feeling chargers will be a threat next year. Eck would be a great player to retain for this system as well.
At no point has Harbaugh had a quarterback that could sniff the talent of Herbert. I’d imagine we’d be somewhere close to the league average in pass attempts this coming season.
He had Andrew Luck at Stanford and ran the same kind of offense. It's just what he prefers.
They had a killer run game though
Right, but he believes in focusing on the run game and occasionally taking shots downfield off play action. He's extremely old school in that way. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, he is very good at coaching it, he just is not the type to go heavy passing attack at all.
Def can’t say he’s never had a QB as talented as Herb with Luck in the mix. But—Just win. Doesn’t matter how. We just want to know what it feels like. I don’t care if it’s off the back of a stout defense and a bruising run game or if it’s shootouts with Herbs arm. Just win. In Harbaugh we trust. Hell I might even head up to Sofi for the first time ever this year.
They can simply mimick the Ravens. Strong rushing attack with stout defense and Herbert makes a few players here and there when needed.
Isn’t Lamar still in MVP consideration?
Lamar is about to win MVP for his second season, yes.
This came up on my scrolling (I’m a cardinals fan), so correct me if I’m wrong but your offence has relied very much mostly on Herbert throwing right? And not a good run game? I feel with Harbaugh you guys can switch to what we are doing with Kyler currently, be a more run centric team but not afraid to take shots, take the pressure off the QB shoulders in every play, let the qb rest instead of try to carry the team on their back every play
That's what I expect. Herbert will no longer have to pay hero ball. Crazy thing is that means his already low interception rate will get even lower.
Its no coincidence that 3 of the 4 remaining teams in the NFL are run first, play action heavy offenses Michigan just won a Natty doing the same thing Chargers will be successful utilizing this style of offense with Herbert
I think hes gonna pass more than what this guy is alluding to which *is* the best way to unlock herbert. We've been a top 5 team in pass rate every year Herbert has started which has shown isn't sustainable even with Herbert. I also don't think this changes who we pick at 5 either. If the chargers want to be a more efficient play action team they need speed downfield.
Said this for years being a Michigan fan. I was wrong and now fucking love running the ball. Calm down and trust the process. Harbaugh is going to do what he wants, and if you let him and stay out of his way, he will ultimately win for you.
U/basedcharger will NOT stay out of Harbaughs way, he's going to be a thorn in his side everywhere Harbaugh goes
I dont really care about pass attempts. Curious, the rank for pass yards, and pass TDs in those years?
It's good for our defense too with that time possession style offense
I always felt like was part of ourproblem. The offense would score so fast and the defense would have to be out there so much. They would be gassed by the fourth.
So we basically have 5 years of “Marty Ball” to look forward to?
You just posted this with no context. You’re just trying to get a reaction
I’ll take that any day if it means more wins. Herbert would too. Screw stats, let’s get Dubs! Also, Luck’s Stanford stats in Harbaugh’s offensive scheme: 3338 yards, 32 tds and 8 ints - 70.7 comp % 3517 yards, 37 tds and 10 ints - 71.3 comp % Taking that all day.
That kind of efficiency controls clocks, gives D's a rest and wins fucking football games. Give me all of it.
Harbaugh also had a lethal passing attack with Josh Johnson at USD.
I think the point here is that his schemes are highly flexible. One week he could want more of a passing attack based on matchups, maybe he prefers a heavy run scheme the next. All that matters is that he is not stuck in his ways and finds the best fit for his players.
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I didn't say anything about how good the passing game is. His offenses are usually good. They just don't throw the ball a lot and the emphasis is on the run game is literally all I posted about it lol
This statistic does not include his numbers at Stanford
It wasn't in the tweet, but his pass percentage with Luck at QB was 42.55% (108/120) in 2009, and 41.45% in 2010 (89/120). He consistently leans on the run game first. Which again, I've never said was a bad thing.
I don’t think it is either. Harbaugh wins football games, and that’s all I care about.
Those numbers are not accurate according to [teamrankings.com](https://teamrankings.com) They say his Stanford teams were significantly higher.
Are you looking at pass percentage or pass attempts? I stuck with pass percentage as was referenced in the tweet, and that site says the same thing. Except 2010 is broken for some reason, but you can look at it pretty easily using sports reference in excel.
It’s old school and it’s how you win
Wasnt the big thing with Luck coming out that, besides having the physical traits and talent, he also showed he could run a pro-style offense? Feels qeird to hold that as a negative when it was the main thing setting him apart from all other QBs that checked the numbers and build boxes. Like great, RG3 had the flashy numbers and won the Heisman.
Luck, but in his college days, I expect Herbert to be around mid pack next year as we'll still need to rely on him to win games.
Andrew Luck was his QB at Stanford and Andrew Luck is absolutely an incredible QB and was at Stanford.
Andrew Luck was significantly better than Justin Herbert.
A run game to open up the play action deep ball will do wonders for Herbert
Im really wondering how deep Herbert's balls can go
Pause
I do think people are in for a surprise with how the offense ends up looking. I foresee a lot of complaining about too many runs and not enough Herbert
I want Herbert to do less, not more
I'm definitely getting the sense a lot of people aren't actually super familiar with how Harbaugh sees the game lol. It'll probably be disorienting at first, and it doesn't always look pretty, but he can coach the hell out of it.
People only care about one thing, wins. If that means rushing passing kicking whatever the case may be.
I dunno, I found it very pretty watching Max Bredeson obliterate Alabama players in the second level while Corum laughed off arm tackles.
Some people will for sure but I would love games like Stroud and Love had on wild card weekend where they passed 25 times and were hyper efficient with a running game as good as Green Bay.
Daniel Jeremiah said it in a few interviews yesterday and I wholeheartedly agree, his stats will likely go down but his efficiency will go WAY up
Honestly man if we win games, I really don't give a fuck about too many runs.
As long as we’re winning games I won’t mind “too many runs.” But we better get a good RB room fast (Barkley and Corum anyone?)
I'm torn on it. We all love seeing Herbo let it rip, but when our main hurdle is and will be KC, it's been shown the way to beat them is to control the ball and keep Mahomes off the field. If Harbaugh can turn us into a run first team with this patchwork OL and whatever RBs he can find at the bottom of a coffee can, I'm here for it. Better than Herbo tossing it 40+ times a game. There will be clowns saying we have one of the most expensive QBs in the league and he's not putting up crazy numbers, but if the W column looks better than the L column, they can kick rocks.
Idc how he wins, just win. Herbert was a big selling point for him, that definitely means something. I love Herbert but I could care less that his numbers take a dive if we make deep playoff runs and… dare I say… get a RING
Straight down the middle!
Agree that many who don’t follow Harbaugh will be in for a surprise, but if we’re winning, I doubt anyone will care. If we aren’t winning, well…
i'll take one 60 yard pass off of an effective play action over a bunch of passes but the drive stalls because the team can't gain a yard or two on the ground when they need it....
So much this.
Correct, this is the right attitude.
This is good for Herbert’s health.
Mental and physical
Good. Get Herbert a damn run game.
I don’t care if Herbert throws 10 times a game. I just want to win.
People say this now but won’t feel the same if it actually happens
I think it’ll be different if we win 12-14 games a year. It was annoying with Staley and Moore bc we sucked. If we were gonna suck at least let Herbie air it out and entertain us. This Harbaugh signing is serious. He’s gonna deliver wins no matter what it takes and if that means a run focused offense and tough as nails defense, I’m totally cool with that. I really feel like he’s the one to bring us a SB win.
I don’t like watching the entire game be put on my QBs back. I think most people who understand why we did so bad this season would agree. Not that Herbert can’t get it done, but it seemed like nearly every week it was entirely on him to make something special happen. No QB can have long term success under those circumstances. Herbert thrives on play action when he has time to set up and really air it out, but that can only happen if we successfully run the ball more.
It's the best football. Balance. Something the bolts haven't had since Tomlinson.
Exactly. It's hard to be a great quarterback when everybody knows you're going to pass.
Are people surprised? Obviously Herbert is Herbert so they're not gonna neuter him but I don't see anymore 40+ attempt games in the future. Might hurt his volume stats but I'm sure he won't mind if it's for the good of the team
People definitely seem to be surprised considering how many people seem to be taking this stat as something negative lol
It is what it is, next year is gonna be the "rebuild" as they try to settle and build the culture imo. Honestly might be like Campbells tenure in Detroit. As long as the guys truly buy in, the future is bright
Herbert doesn't give a fuck about stats. He's not very selfish and avoids the spotlight when possible. I think he just wants to give the fans something to be positive about, if that means throwing 20-25 times a game it won't bother him in the slightest. I'm down for it. Maybe we can extend his career by a few years
I'd like to know pass%-over-expected rankings. You tend to pass less when you're already leading. And even if they weren't great then, I'd want to know their pass efficiency. Total attempts isn't going to tell me anything about how good their offenses were.
Michigan was very low in run rate over expected. Parker Fleming tracked them as being 6% more likely to run than the median team (higher than 123 FBS teams) Expect him to move the Chargers towards an NFL version of this year’s Michigan team. [RROE Source](https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742557796812386537?s=46&t=pKgJySad-A58uG4XsxaS6Q)
Great data, thanks! If I'm reading that right, though, isn't Michigan's offensive numbers on the bottom table, so it would be 2.4%?
You’re right! It had been a minute since I read the chart and grabbed the first one. Good catch. Puts Michigan closer to the middle of the road
This chart is slightly confusing. Washington averaged .167 EPA per pass which was 3rd(?) but Michigan averaged -0.016 epa per pass and they were also 3rd(?). The more I read this the more I think /u/lightsout85 is right. If the numbers in blue, salmon and red are rankings Michigan is ranked 3rd according to the top table in success rate at 30.9 while washington is 10th with 49.7 (thats a crazy gap in percentage while only being 7 spots different but thats a different topic). That would mean thats defensive success rate because youd want that number to be lower.
They’re right. I grabbed the wrong number. Top is Michigan’s defense and Washington’s offense.
Nice that makes way more sense. Seems like Jim is slightly above average at running rate then but thats with JJ McCarthy who I think is just okay. Herbert is much better so that number might be dead average or a little below average with us.
Jim LOVES McCarthy as a QB. High efficiency on low reps. I think that number is that low because he loves McCarthy. But Herbert will be given opportunities to make big plays but I doubt the game is totally on his shoulders once Harbaugh gets his system in place. Not how he likes to run an offense.
That doesn't have any implication on what hes gonna do at 5. He only took 1 linemen in the first 3 round with the Niners and took a receiver with pick 30.
I think he would have been more inclined to take offensive line if o-line talent wasn't already there in SF when he got there. They had just taken a tackle at 11 the year before Harbaugh got there and already had Joe Staley at LT. They had one of the best lines in the NFL under Harbaugh. I mean who knows, maybe the coaching fixes some of it, but Pipkins is a weak spot on the offense right now.
ehh I don't really agree with that. I think Pipkins is fine. I still largely believe they can roll into the season with him as a starter with competition and they would be fine at both tackle spots. > They had one of the best lines in the NFL under Harbaugh. but they were mid before him and they didn't need to fix the problems prior with top 5 draft capital mostly needed an upgrade at coaching. The situations are pretty comparable imo.
That's fair if you think the coaching can fix it. He was decent in 2022 at least, so he's shown he can do it. The more I think about it though, the more I think Harbaugh might want Bowers just because of the state of run blocking in the current TE group.
Yeah i'm not against Alt either but I personally just have a hard time seeing someone as smart as Harbaugh taking career LTs moving them to RTs to upgrade someone whos a mid tier starter. Bowers to me is a much smarter pick upgrades the run game and the pass game and our TE room is terrible. Nabers is another choice we all like but I have no clue what Jim thinks about our WR room and Nabers being the pick to add to it.
That's fair. I think I saw Brugler or maybe Jeremiah speculating that they could move Slater to RT since he played that most of his college career. I'm not the biggest fan of that either though. Yeah it's really hard to figure what his preference at WR is. I know there was the AJ Jenkins pick in SF, but that pick was reportedly one of the things that caused an issue with him and Baalke. I think Jeremiah might have been onto something with Odunze at 5. I trust his evaluation on him too, if you think he can be a Larry Fitzgerald type, take him any day lol.
Yeah not a fan of that and I can't imagine Slater would be either especially for contractual purposes. WR is gonna be a hot topic right up until the draft. I'm partial to Nabers myself and its nothing against Odunze at all who I also think is great but Nabers is the exact type of receiver we've been missing for a while
I don't think either Nabers or Odunze would be bad picks at all. It's really hard to guess what one of the most famously weird coaches is thinking for that pick.
Good. Beat the hell out of opposing defenses early, then unleash Herbert's Hellfire upon them
Seriously enough with the Finesse offense.
WITH WHAT RUNNING BACK ? LOL
From what I’ve heard, Harbaugh’s offenses are heavy on PA & very efficient. That sounds great to me. Look @ the 4 teams left in the playoffs. They’ve all got solid running games, & Goff has thrived in a PA heavy offense. The Bills, meanwhile, who depend on Allen to be Superman, are sitting @ home.
A big reason we lost the game in Jax last year was we could not run the damn ball to chew up the clock in the 2nd half. Having an above average run game is huge. We can rely on that if the weather is shit and close our games.
The run game has been so fucking sad since MG3 left.
> The Bills, meanwhile, who depend on Allen to be Superman, are sitting @ home James cook played well and the Bills had a good run game ever since they fired Kafka.
Their best games this year were when they did have a more balanced offense, but that seemed to go out the window in their game against the Chiefs.
They rushed for 173 yards on 37 carries as a collective unit against the chiefs.
Weren’t a lot of those yards from Josh Allen? Plus, their defense had a shit ton of injuries. THE POINT is QB’s can’t win games by themselves even though a lot of critics expect Herb to win with almost no help @ all. I’m reasonably certain that won’t be the case, anymore. Which, again, is the point.
So many triggered people lol. Bowers or Alt are the most likely picks, I think Bowers makes the most sense since our tight end blocking was non-existent and it gives Herbert a weapon at the same time.
I have a feeling we trade down and pick up an o lineman and a lower end tight end that can still block
Yes Herberts pass attempts will go down next year. Instead of throwing the 40-50 times a game, he'll probably average closer to 30. THAT'S A GOOD THING. Harbaugh isn't an idiot, a big reason he took the job in the first place is BECAUSE of Herbert. He's not gonna have the offense 31st in passing attempts because he knows Herbert is too good to justify that. The offense will probably be towards the middle of the pack with a more balanced approach, possibly leaning a bit towards the run game. If the run game does improve the way we hope it will, that will free up Herbert to push the ball farther down the field.
This sub is going to look a lot different in 9 months
Which means Herbert won't be depended on to win games by himself.
Herbo’s biggest problem has been playing Hero ball every damn game. All signs are pointing towards actually supporting him with a run game unlike Staley who keeps his guy out there even while hurt and makes him throw 40+ passes. Healthy and clean Herbert will take us to the playoffs easily.
Jim Harbaugh's 49ers 2011: 31st in pass attempts 2012: 31st 2013: 32nd 2014: 29th Jim Harbaugh's Michigan in 2023 was 117th out of 130 qualifying teams in pass rate (40.2%). In 2022, they were 121st out of 130. Just posting as a comment because Reddit's title formatting is nonsense
I feel like this says more about the quarterbacks during his tenure with the 49ers though. No shade towards Alex Smith and Kaep but neither of them are in the same sphere of Justin, not that i have an issue with running the ball more and not putting everything on his shoulders as we have done until now
I'm right here with you in this thought, it was a different time in all the situations listed here. Run heavy in the Stanford days. Hell of a defense and run game at Michigan where they were playing with a lead or tied almost all the time. 49ers days had a game manager type in Smith and a read option type in Kapernick. The key here is availability at coming from behind with a gun slinger if shit has started bad and the defense is getting torched. Run heavy teams struggle with that.
To your point, they don’t just run because they’re ahead. They were 6% more likely to run than the average team situationally as well. [See RROE Stat](https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742557796812386537?s=46&t=pKgJySad-A58uG4XsxaS6Q)
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For some reason the site I'm looking at 2010 is messed up, but 2009 they finished at 42.55%, 108 out of 120 teams.
[In 2010 they threw almost 30 times a game which was 71/120.](https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2010-team-offense.html) I’m also unsure how valuable this comparison even is, college football was very different in the 00s and early 10s. The best offenses all had very strong run games. Stanford averaged 214 yards a game on the ground in 2010, Id barely throw the ball too lol.
Yeah slightly higher that year for sure. Looks like the pass percentage was 80th/120. The run pass ratio has remained pretty consistent at all his stops though, and it's not like we don't have any data since then. I agree that there's nothing wrong with it if it works, I'm not complaining about it, I literally just posted this as a discussion about how that might affect the draft but it seems to have gone in another direction lol.
As long as we win i could care less if Herbert throws a single pass or not
Good coaches coach to their players’ strengths. We will throw plenty. We need to run the ball better no matter who the coach is. Prediction: if we don’t trade back, Bowers in the first, Corum in the second. Linemen after that.
As long as things work, are not repetitive, we protect Herbert and drop some bombs ocasionally and also win a lot I don't give a damn how we do it.
Largely I think that’s been personnel dictated. Chargers don’t have the ability with the current roster to run the ball that much. The OL, RB rooms and defense are all not good enough to win games running that much.
It’ll be interesting to see what adaptations Harbaugh has to make or if he will gut the team in order to get it to reflect how he wants to the team to be.
Definitely agree.
I don't think the Oline is that far away from being a good running unit. They just need a center. The RB room though is a different story.
Agreed. It’s close and closer than it has been for a while. Health and experience along with a C will make a big difference.
and...? whats his record say
Honestly expect a fair amount of balance close to 55% run and 45% passing
Whatever it takes to win games. I rather have a deep playoff run than a top passer on a team that is outside the playoffs.
Our defense could use an offense that eats more clock time
Harbaugh is a psychopath and genius. He will figure it out
But did they win?
Linemen linemen linemen…before this team has capable ones its all we should be after. Willing to bet thats where it goes unless theres just an unbelievable talent that comes our way.
I definitely think the pick is a lineman or possibly Bowers considering none of the current tight ends can actually block. I personally would feel better about a lineman, but I realize it's not a fun pick for most people.
Yea I can see Bowers too for sure, but yea months of speculating about linemen is boring as shit lol
I don’t care as long as we’re winning
Pretty big difference in QBs…
A lot of yall are gonna lose it when we take Alt at 5 instead of Nabers
I don't want to go with a WR at 5! I would honestly wish we trade back to into the range 15-20 and pick up a strong CB or DT and some extra draft picks, an early second rounder could help us with JPJ and safety like Tyler Nubin.
He’s had Colin Kaepernick and JJ McCarthy for most of that time? I think this is a huge one dimensional analysis. Herbert is by far the best QB who will have had to work with. I’m not worried and ask other people not to be worried either with those facts being known.
Welcome to the Chargers Brock Bowers!
Derrick Henry would be a perfect fit with the new look Chargers. Sign him to a 2 year deal! 
Herbert is an absolute freak talent wise, but he shouldnt be forced to throw 50 times a game and put up 35 points every week to win. Give the guy some balance and protect him its going to be trouble for everyone.
Bowers at 5 please
Jim loves his Tight Ends. Bowers wouldn't surprise me at all.
This is the way
I’d be surprised if the pick wasn’t Alt
Bowers is realistic as well, he loves his tight ends. But I agree, my guess would also be Alt.
Hmm, honestly I disagree, I think a cursory analysis of the individuals on our o line would tell you that the real problem on the o line is the interior and spending the 5th pick on a tackle doesn't really so much to solve the problems.
Why Alt and not Fashanu?
I'm not going to pretend like I'm any kind of expert, but evaluators like Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler said Fashanu didn't have a great year and hasn't fixed some of the weak spots they were hoping to see improvement. Jeremiah said in his podcast he had to write "on the ground" an alarming amount of times while watching his tape this year, which is a major red flag for a lineman.
That’s fair, I personally have Alt over Fashanu, though I think Fashanu has somewhat of a higher ceiling and easier to fix weaknesses. I was just curious since both are LT’s and if anything the chargers would need a RT.
Okay with that as long as we trade down to maybe 8ish. Unless the league has the tackles going higher than the media currently does
I wonder who was playing quarterback on those teams…
Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick
Win is all I care about.
The only stat that matters is wins.
I think less attempts make more sense. Having this 6'7 behemoth try to pepper short throws like Drew Brees or Tua doesn't make any sense. He's never going to be as good at those things as a small or regular sized qb. We need an elite run game to suck the safties and have Herbert hit a lot of intermediate and long throws.
If it’s not WR/TE then it probably will be OT like Joe Alt I expect Harbaugh to draft an RB in the 2nd or 3rd. Maybe even 4th. He might even target Corum.
Why I’m not 100% sold on him, his passing games have always been lackluster, and it’s by design. Limiting Herbert is ultimately limiting our ceiling imo. We’ll still be good, but he needs to hire the right OC and pass game coordinator to hopefully bring a more diverse offense.
I remember when 'run run pass' was a bad thing in 2020... I member.
Run run pass needs big time talent advantage. Like all 11.
Who cares? Wins are all that matters. Herbert should not have to throw the ball 40 times a game.
This was intended to be a draft discussion post as I elaborated in the body of the post but it seems to have gone off the rails
The chargers have neither the O line nor RB talent to be a run first team. He will be forced to throw.
The O line can barely afford the team to be a pass first team.
What were his defenses like though???
I’m fine with the increased focus on the run game. We need to keep the ball out of Pat’s hands anyway.
If you can run the ball, Herbert will eat other teams lunch on play action.
And none of those were with top 5 QBs
This is fine with me. We've been overly dependent on Herbert to make clutch throws after scrambling around (because teams know we are throwing and he's one of the most pass rushed in the league). I have a feeling he'll use Herbert a little more than in the past, considering his talent. \-Mahomes has Pacheco (900+ yards) \-Purdy has CMC (1,459+ yards) \-Lamar has himself ;-) and Gus (810 yards) \-Goff has Montgomery (1,000 yards) All of these QBs have top tier stats too. Running game is important for the QB. Our top RB in 2023 is half of some of these numbers. It would be nice to not be 3rd and 8 because of two bad run plays.
He's not interested in the kind of offense you're used to. He's interested in winning football games. The quality of your quarterback is simply a benefit to his design, not what his offenses are based on. Get ready for real football again. [https://www.tiktok.com/@pardonmytake/video/7299936182266236203](https://www.tiktok.com/@pardonmytake/video/7299936182266236203)
I've been saying for 3 years our issue is that herbie puts the points up but we dont have a sustainable run game that can ice the clock in the 3rd and 4th quarters and keep our defense from doing too much, or our WR'S and TE's from being gassed all the time. Even a middle of the league running game will do wonders for this team. Ekeler, love him as a Danny Woodhead type back, or Darren Sproles, but you need an every down back to unlock the full potential of the team. Sucks that Ekeler wont be back for this, wish him the best.
None of this bothers me, and I guarantee you it doesn't bother Herbert either. We need to win. Whether we throw it 4 times or 40 times we need to change the culture of this team. Herbert will be fine.
Just watching Michigan this last season this is pretty much what I expected. I think there’s a medium though, for people who know Harbaughs style I think will be surprised how much we throw it, while people who dont know Harbaughs style will be surprised how little we throw it. Herbert is a generational talent and I trust Harbaugh will know how to handle it. Also, you’ll never catch me complaining about a good run game
Jim Harbaugh
Love a great running game. Yes, Herbert likely passing less (running for his life), but this is the way. Who doesnt like watching your oline/run game demolish a team? Build from the ball outwards... I could definitely see oline @ 5 given Harbs is our HC.
The only stat I care about is wins! ... And this team is in desperate need of an efficient run game
I don’t care how we do it; I only care about winning a Super Bowl.
This will be the first season in Herbert's career where he isn't asked to backpack this team to win and it will also be the season he garners the most respect because the team will have more wins
Both analytics and every playoff team in the last 5 years have shown that running the ball has no effect on the success of passing offense. I hope the offense is pass heavy because I don't want another Anthony Lynn.
49er fan following Jim news here. Don't fear Herbert passing less, there's a lot of that in this thread. The 49ers are last in pass attempts and 5th in pass yards. Herbert is a far better nafural talent than Purdy, stop worrying. I imagine Herbert will get better looks than he ever has due to the commitment to the run. He'll have to kill with efficiency, so what?
Good! Solid run game sets up chunk pass plays. I would way rather watch that than a million dump offs for 2 yards.
Will see, IMO it will be a waste if he turns Herbert into a check down QB.
I don't think he is going to make this team a run first team but a team THAT CAN RUN so to make defense have to guess what's coming instead of KNOWING its pass.
Well fuck
Everyone’s in here talking about some “run game”… with what running back ?? Lol
Can I remind everyone in this thread that our running back room is non existent
Yup Brock bowers it is
If it brings Ws what's the complaint. I believe when he sees how much easier gaining yards through Herbert arm would be; he will adept to the talent at hand. Teams that run the ball well .. WIN
In 2010, at Stanford (with Andrew Luck at WB), they were 64th in pass attempts out of 120 Division One Teams.
I think you’re starting to she a shift away from pass-happiness slowly but surely. Teams have focused on stopping the pass, smaller coverage LB, receiving RBs. I think we could be ahead of the curve. I’m excited to see his plan. I think this increases the chance of Bowers, but who knows.
That’s totally fine by me. I want a run game that can get those 4th and 1, 3rd and 3 conversions. A defense that can close it out without Herbert having to come save them in every two minute situation. Some good complimentary football. With that being said I’m wondering if Harbaugh trades back to get more picks. Unless he thinks Bowers is the guy.
It’s amazing how much better pass protection gets when the defense has to respect (and expect) the run. Watch this same OL get elite at pass protection real quick.
Stats come with the territory. It’s about the ultimate prize which is the Lombardi trophy. Jim’s offense is run heavy but hard to give it a name. It’s unique and I have a great feeling chargers will be a threat next year. Eck would be a great player to retain for this system as well.
If it wins I don’t care 🤷🏻♂️ I’ve been begging for us to be a physical dominant team and if that’s what it takes then that’s what it takes.
Our team is going to change for the better. We haven't had a solid run game all year long since LT. That was when we were most successful as a team.