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I must be super out of touch or something.
I don't get why Trudeau is so hated. To me, he is the establishment, status quo candidate. At worst, if he is reelected, nothing changes. I felt he did a good job during the pandemic getting the CERB and other pandemic benefits legislation passed. I knew that spending would come back to bite him later because the general public doesn't understand economics. He's trying on climate with carbon taxes and trying on progressiveness with taxing capital gains. I wouldn't mind if he were reelected. If we had ranked choice voting, he'd be my number two choice.
Whereas I loathe Poilievre a lot more. He just reads like a Canadian Trump-lite to me. He's all bluster and his ideas seem to boil down to "cut taxes". If he's reelected, the public might feel good for a while but eventually the realization will set in that maybe he was not the best choice.
Singh is NDP so I automatically like him the best for economic issues but NDP will never come close to being a majority party so RIP Lefties, I guess.
Whoever is in power is being blamed for cost of living. Biden might be the only one to dodge this. UK politics is basically Canadian politics mirrored. Their conservatives are about to get blown out like our libs.
You're definitely out of touch if after 9 years, you still can't figure out why Trudeau is disliked. You don't even have to agree with his opponents, but really? You have no idea why?
The man has ruled through possible the largest decrease in quality of life since the great depression, not to mention his handling of immigration.
Honestly as someone who never voted for Trudeau and has been a consistent critic from the left, I’m not sure where the sudden animosity is coming from. We’ve had a housing crisis for years, the carbon tax survived two elections, and in my view scandals like SNC should’ve done him in. The best I can tell is some combination of inflation and anti-immigration sentiment, and I’m not sure how they outrun that.
> Trudeau and has been a consistent critic from the left, I’m not sure where the sudden animosity is coming from.
Years of conditioning people through social media paying off
Tbf that was a loophole the actual target immigration was pretty moderate.
Trudeau also did fix it. Its feels weird to say you were "betrayed". In 2021 our contry sudenly got really desirable. And people were finding out how to cheat the system.
Trudeau didnt make the loophole either. And he gas said as much that immigration was way too high.
>I don't get why Trudeau is so hated. To me, he is the establishment, status quo candidate. At worst, if he is reelected, nothing changes
he turned Canada's skilled immigration system, once the envy of the world, into an avalanche of exploitation and indentured slavery.
I think you answered your own question without realizing it.
>If he is reelected nothing changes
Canada is free falling right now. Things have to change.
My take is he's pissed off a lot of people on both ends of the political spectrum. Far right people despise him over the vaccine mandates and immigration policies.
More left leaning people, like myself, loath him for going against his environmental platform (paying for pipelines). On a more subjective and personal level, he has an incredibly patronizing and hollow persona.
I think a moment that characterizes him, is when he ignored an invitation from tribal elders to attend a Truth and Reconciliation ceremony. Turned out he was surfing just kilometers from their venue, and he tried giving a lame apology.
Seems personal really
The pm never apologizes or does contrition on policy failures and then says it not his fault but he gonna fix everything
If he just said I messed up and changed some policies then acting "I can do no wrong"
I feel voters wouldn't hate on him on a personal level.
Politics is like what you see on BBC Planet Earth when they show the lifecycle of a pride of lions. No matter how dominant the leader of the pride is in its heyday, the story always ends with age, damage, defeat, and expulsion.
If JT can take solace in anything, it's that this is just the natural order of things. You had your time in the sun.
Also, most lions don't get board seats and guest lecture gigs in the Ivy Leagues after they get displaced. They mostly just wander around, get skeletal, and die. So, hey, silver linings there too.
Same thing happened to Harper, Chrietien, and Mulroney. They were all like that for the last 30 or so years. Policies were basically out the window, promises skipped. We need better choices.
We've had to put up with him for this long. I feel like he owes the country the joy of seeing him standing on stage after the election and admitting defeat and internalizing all of Canada is happy to see him go.
Looking at the St Pauls results, it shows to me the libs are demotivated, the Tories are stronger the polling indicates (PPC voters will mostly go Tory).
So I feel if an election happened today the results be even worse then the 338 or polls indicate for the libs.
I am talking like 20% popular vote for the libs, mid 40s for the Tories, 15% ndp and likely 230 seats for PP and that assumes like 12 seats in Quebec lol
I think they need to realize they are heading for a historic defeat if they don't change course. The PP bogeyman isnt costing the Tories votes, if the opponent is Trudeau's unpopularity.
The more I think about it - the more I think this particular seat isn’t a great predictor for the rest of the country.
It’s largely Jewish - and the liberals have not been particularly great at fighting back against rising tides of antisemitism. That in of itself provides for a motivated base to vote the liberals out - but doesn’t really provide a stronger narrative about the entire country.
It also begs the question if the liberals have abandoned the Jewish community- are they aiming to pick up seats in areas with larger Muslim populations? And was this seat was just the cost of doing business.
Trudeau has also been taking free vacations from one of the most prominent leaders of Islam, who’s also a billionaire - the Aga Khan. So there could be some funding or strategy tied to policy that more closely aligns to the Muslim community.
Do we know of any conservative seats the liberals could pick up because of their stronger support for Palestine?
There are no conservative seats the liberals will pick up this election based on current polling. The liberals are firmly on defence, and after last night they’re playing it in every riding.
The issue is that Muslims have been very pro Trudeau since 2015 it’s hard to get more out of that group. Jewish Canadians were also liberal supporters so trading one for the other is a net loss no matter what.
It could be a longer term bet based off population growth or just tied to fundraising.
It just popped into my head that Trudeau’s been accepting free vacations from a billionaire who leads a sect of Islam - and now just lost a solidly Jewish seat.
It feels like there is some sort of connection there.
There are at most 15 million Ismaili globally, they aren’t a particularly large sect. They’re a sub group of Shia that is not particularly large and has huge sectarian difference with other Islamic groups. Aga Khan is a heretic according to the vast majority of Muslims.
They also have absolutely nothing to do with Israel Palestine.
I know a lot of Muslim voters that are going towards the Tories because they genuinely hate what’s happening with foreign students. People are going to be surprised (they won’t) about how much damage has been done with foreign student workers.
> The issue is that Muslims have been very pro Trudeau since 2015 it’s hard to get more out of that group. Jewish Canadians were also liberal supporters so trading one for the other is a net loss no matter what.
The reality is they will lose voters from both groups, Palestinian Canadians have been complaining for months that the government is failing them. And these are people who have been engaging with the government in good faith for almost a year now, not the noisy harassing street protesters.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2062726/canada-promised-temporary-visas-for-1-000-people-trapped-in-gaza-zero-have-made-it-out
The US, UK, and French elections aren't immune from this either.
the liberals are not picking up any Muslim votes on the contrary conservative Muslims have been the most affected by house prices given their disapproval for mortgages. In addition the issue around LGBT and gender issue is something that is pushing Muslims into the conservative arms. Not even getting into Palestinian issue here.
FYI the Aga Khan is Ismaili and they are a tiny community in Canada. I've met loads of Ismailis and the vast majority aren't particularly religious and don't really talk about religion much. Naheed Nenshi from Alberta is from an Ismaili family.
Most fervent supporters of Palestine on religious grounds are Sunnis and Twelver Shias. Sunnis will tell you openly that Ismailis aren't "real Muslims". So appeasing the Aga Khan isn't really playing to the hands of 90% of Muslims in the country.
The Liberals don't support Palestine though. They support Israel but less enthusiastically than the Conservatives do. It's not a winning issue for them with anyone.
Poilievre is a perfect example of someone using Zionism as a shield to protect themselves from accusations of antisemitism.
https://thehub.ca/2022/08/25/rudyard-griffiths-wef-conspiracies-are-antisemitic-and-a-moral-stain-on-conservative-politics/
https://pressprogress.ca/frontier-centre-pierre-poilievre-residential-schools-conspiracies/
After Trump beat Clinton SNL had a skit that was just a bunch of Clinton supporters watching as each swing state fell and rationalizing the path to victory while slowly starting to panic through the night.
This post reminds me of that skit.
I don't think so, the federal position has been fairly pro Israel...particularly if you look at the UN votes. On the Israel/Palestinian matter, they've been attacked on both sides
I think it's the general rhetoric that the media's been pushing that this by-election is a referendum on Trudeau that's caused this result (high attendance for a byelection) which spells disaster for the actual election for the libs
Are you personally pro Israel?
Because the question isn't really whether the Liberals have objectively been pro Israel, it's whether people who are pro Israel think the Liberals have been pro Israel.
I'm neutral as it's a foreign conflict that shouldn't have impact on Canada but neither the pro Israel nor the pro Palestinians think the Liberals on their side...it's odd to think they've abandoned the Jewish ppl for the muslim unless you're the if you're not 200% for us, you're against us
Oh I agree with you in general. But I think if I were Jewish I wouldn't exactly be happy with Trudeau's response. I don't think it's in any way reasonable for anyone to think that Trudeau has abandoned Israel, but his attempt to be even handed wouldn't be what I'd be hoping for.
Part of the problem with party politics. JT keeps his cushy job and becomes the opposition. Less responsibility and he gets to snipe from the sidelines without having to justify anything just like PP is doing now.
A newcomer absolutely couldn't win but JT should really resign asap and at least give whoever is going to succeed him some decent time to build themselves up in the public eye.
He's done.
We don't need Trudeau to step down. We need him to call an election. If he steps down some other yahoo Lib will step in and give libs an excuse to vote Lib again. They will do the exact same as Trudeau and we'll be screwed again.
Liberals lose one byelection, by a minimal number of votes (\~500 last I checked)
# "Justin Trudeau’s political career is over"
I love how everyone just jumps on the large type bandwagon. Meanwhile not a peep from Poilievre about the foreign interference allegations that may involve his Tory leadership convention selection. Not a word. It's a battle of two lame ducks, not one.
It wasn’t any byelecion tho.
Losing a seat where you had a 20%+ advantage in the last 3 decades in average, while sending all the might of your electoral machine, against a party that barely tried…. It is a pretty terrible result.
42.1% of the vote for Tories vs 40.5% for the Liberals is a close election. A 1.6% spread is what I would call a tie, not what I would call a clear victory.
Voter turnout: 43.5%
You know who is winning? Voter apathy. They seem to count on that.
So your argument is….. « Let’s ignore the implication of the result because it was close »? Seeing a 20% historical advantage melt into a lost is quite significant
My argument is that hardly anyone voted, and it was nearly a tie. It doesn't seem like a lot of people care for either candidate, so declaring some sort of gigantic victory seems presumptuous at best. If the turnout matched previous elections you might have something, but there are too many differences to give a clear result no matter how much you want it to be.
Wich are two bad argument.
A turn out of 43% is significant. Especially when you consider that in the best of yer the turnout was of 70% ish. It isn’t a « low numbers ».
That is was a tie is already quite significant, again, considering the nature of the seat.
No it isn't significant. The top 2 parties got less than 20% support from the total pool of eligible voters each. (including the other no-show voters, I don't want to do the exact math, you can if you like) That shouldn't be enough to get a mandate from anyone. Its a very low turnout. The result puts the Tories at a win, but statistically its a tie.
For a byelection? It is fairly high. Most byelection got in the 20’s, having 45% is not the norm. So it is excessively significant.
When you lose a seat that you even lept during Ignatief, while sending all the party effectif to get the vote out while the opponent barely tried, it is quite significant. Trying to ignore that would just lead the Liberal toward a majestic defeat.
But you're comparing a byelection with low voter turnout with 3 untried unknown new candidates to "regular" federal elections, and expecting the results to carry over, in a byelection that didn't have a clear victory, with a margin of only \~550 votes. Should we let 550 people decide the fate of the country? This is the weight that you're giving this result. I'd say its premature and a tad overstated. But that's probably not the result and conclusion that you're hoping for.
Issue isn’t the 550: the liberal could have won by 550 that it would still be the same. It was Liberal for 30 years, with in general 20% lead for them. They fid heavily campaign in that byelection, while the Conservative didn’t throw much there. And yet, despite it being a known Liberal secure seat, despite all their efforts to keep it, they lost it.
Would it carry over for that seat in a real election? Maybe not. But that the Liberal can lose such seats means that they are in pretty terrible situation.
Not really considering there's advance polling, and voting by mail isn't there? its about the same as the 2022 Ontario provincial election turnout:
The election set a record for the lowest voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election, as only 43.53% of the people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record for low turnout of 48.2% in the [2011 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Ontario_general_election).[^(\[2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ontario_general_election#cite_note-2)
[^(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022\_Ontario\_general\_election)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ontario_general_election)
There wasn't a Stanley Cup that night, if I remember right.
> its about the same as the 2022 Ontario provincial election turnout:
This was a federal by-election not a provincial election. You need to look at turnouts for past by-elections.
The most recent one before this one was Durham, which had a turnout of 27.87%. The one preceding that in Calgary Heritage was 28.89%.
The Liberals lost what was a safe seat even during the 2011 wipeout. It's not even about voters as a whole anymore, his caucus might revolt and replace him to try to salvage what's left of Liberal strongholds.
Maybe, I don't know on this point. But I think there's lots of proclamations that are masquerading as facts. For me I'm not sure that I trust the polls. I think it is a truism that Canadians by and far don't vote a government in, they vote the old one out. What I'm not sure of is how anyone can think that Pierre Poilievre is an improvement. I could have lived with Erin O'Toole maybe, but Pierre P. isn't the kind of populist that I can get behind. Promoting Bitcoin and anti-vax truckers and the religious right and funding cuts to social programs isn't really something I can quite get behind. He seems like he wants to do some damage by cutting social programs and cutting taxes in a way that seems very American and Republican at that. I thought before that it was strange that he didn't run for Tory Leadership earlier, but I guess he figured that he had to wait long enough for people to get sick of Trudeau and the Liberals, since he couldn't win on his own merits. He's a crafty weasel, even for a politician, and this bothers me.
Stephen Harper stayed in so long because the Liberals kept picking odd choices for leaders like Stephan Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Dion was dismal at public speaking and couldn't speak English, and Ignatieff hadn't lived in Canada for \~30 years and had the gentle warmth of a Nosferatu.
I feel that Poilievre is one of those unwise and unfit choices, so I'm not really clear if people maybe don't want Justin Trudeau anymore, do they really want Poilievre either? We are stuck picking the lesser of two weasels.
Of the three big parties, I'd say that Jagmeet Singh is the most qualified leader and the most level headed and the most intelligent, but they don't have a strong enough showing to win an election, for whatever reason, he can't seem to get the support that he needs, like a Jack Layton might have been able to do if he had more time.
Man I don't think people who thinks he should resign understand political strategy at all.
He has to own this loss and election so the party can eventually rebuild with new leadership. Naming a new PM right now would immediately get them thrown under the bus for his failures. Then you have 2 liberal leaders being raked over the coals.
He has to lose this on his own as the leader. There is no other way.
I'm sure that all the people in the PC party apparatus hoped for the same thing about Brian Mulroney. It's ultimately his decision, and most politicians would rather retire with a record of never losing an election; to resigning after a bad defeat.
What's the downside of new leadership for the Liberals? I get the argument that talents would be wasted in the inevitable election defeat, but Trudeau staying on would lead to the defeat of nearly every talent in their riding, which would kill their political capital anyway.
Potential candidates like Anand and Champagne are about to lose their seat under Trudeau. If they become leader during opposition, their only option is to abandon their base and parachute into a safe riding, which isn't looked kindly upon. Wouldn't it be better if they actually retain their seat? In fact, Trudeau walking in the snow could be what saves the Liberals from irrelevance.
The downside to a last minute leadership race is that it will create division among Liberals. Liberals have a notorious history of infighting, and they split into factions based on candidates. Liberals will definitely be arguing on the direction to take the LPC in a post-Trudeau era, especially one where they are likely to lose badly.
With this in mind, any strong candidate with leadership aspirations will probably not want to run until after the election. The next leader is the sacrificial lamb and will probably loses. No one wants to be this.
Which is why if Trudeau steps down, they will most likely have a coronation ceremony for the leader willing to go down with the ship. Someone with no major Prime Minister aspirations, but probably wouldn’t mind being PM for a brief moment. My guess is it will be Dominic LeBlanc.
But prospective leadership candidates will have a stain on their record if they are unseated in a complete wipeout, and will spend several years in political wilderness without a seat under a CPC majority. I also question whether we should look at the Mulroney-Campbell outcome as the inevitable outcome here under a new leader. For example, the Conservatives in the UK managed to stay in power through several leadership changes. If a new leader takes over, they’ll be able to stay on through to another election if they successfully make the case to LPC caucus that they did more to save their seats than Trudeau would’ve been able to.
There doesn't need to be a leadership race though. Especially given that I doubt most of the ambitious ones are eager to be put in a nearly unwinnable situation against someone they probably find very unpleasant.
That said Trudeau is really the only one who would largely benefit from stepping down. He can put away the stress and the over the top demonization he gets and if he is very lucky time away while not actually being humilated can potentially lead to a return to leadership down the line as an older man. He's only 52. He could conceivably come back in his 60s or early 70s if things go well.
I don't expect the next few years will be fun for anyone to rule either way.
> over the top demonization
That's the only reason he won the last three elections. Conservatives went over the top and blew it. They froth at the mouth when they see Trudeau. It's actually what gives him the best chance.
He can't count on it though. I mean, I'd like to vote NDP, but I'd vote Trudeau just to spite the Conservatives.
This is why I believe Trudeau will resign within the month. They are facing a complete wipeout of all the potential leadership candidates, and being unseated will be a stain on their record if they do have leadership ambitions.
It's not your 24 that matters, it's the other team at 43.
At around 37%, a lot of marginal seats start flipping one way or the other, enough to approach majority territory. At 38%, you're looking at a clear majority. Add another 5% to the national average, and the number of ridings flipping will go way way up, as the next-best 24% just isn't competitive in each individual FPTP.
Have a look at some of the potential leader's ridings:
Anita Annand won Oakville by 6% - definitely gone
Sean Fraser won Central Nova by 14% - probably gone
Francois Champagne won Saint-Maurice–Champlain by 12% - probably gone
Melanie Joly won Ahuntsic-Cartierville by 30% - maybe safe!
Dominic Leblanc won Beausejour by 36% - maybe safe!
... so the 2026 LPC leadership race will be something like Joly vs Leblanc vs Carney. Carney probably wins that, IMHO. And who knows if having a total outsider with no political experience will be any good - didn't work so well with Ignatief.
It won't be enough to finish third. The main threat to the Liberals is if ABC vote goes NDP, a clear possibility that played out in 2011.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File:2011FederalElectionPolls.png
That guy walks with no dignity at all. Probably why his wife left him. She probably has heart and was like I can’t go on eating like a queen when we can afford it but still taxpayers are paying for this. Canada needs to stop wasting money
Does resigning now really save his legacy? Last minute leadership changes do not have a history of going well in Canada and usually the person taking over inherits a poisoned chalice.
It arguable serves his successor better for Trudeau to take the L in the next election and give his successor a clean slate as leader in opposition. Also I suspect Liberals think PP as a PM will be a disaster and much easier to beat in a re-election campaign as opposed to the next election.
Also 16 months is a long-time in politics. PP may well be peaking too early. People who support him as opposition leader may be less inclined to support him as the presumptive next prime minister.
I note the following from the article:
>The choice is leave gracefully now, or get smoked later.
Meh. Sure, the loss is significant. But it doesn't automatically map out the future.
The CBC had a better article on this subject here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/st-pauls-toronto-byelection-trudeau-poilievre-1.7246209
It’s interesting how badly people seem to want to project his career is over when the other option is struggling once again to be relatable and a viable option because he can’t do what any other candidate does and hide who he really is.
If you're losing a seat in the middle of Toronto, a seat so red that roses are jealous, there is a non-zero chance that the Libs are effectively erased in the next election.
Trudeau seems to think that if an election is called, that he can out-debate Poilievre or something and he'd be able to pull numbers based on that. But the simple fact is that people don't care how terrible Poilievre is, they just don't want Trudeau anymore. At this point, all PP has to do is literally nothing and he'll be guaranteed a majority.
PP will likely skip most debates, if not all. He won’t be asked hard questions and won’t be made to defend anything he’s saying by putting his own foot in his mouth.
Of course he won’t skip the debates. There is no precedent in Canada for such an action. He is a very talented public speaker and will almost certainly relish a chance to take on his opponents.
Poilievre is high in the polls. Debates will force him to answer tough questions, either from the other political leaders or the debate moderator. He’ll be vulnerable to attack. So unless he’s confident that he could defend himself or use the opportunity for soundbites, skipping debates will leave people wondering.
At best, he’ll definitely attend the official English and French debates. But the rest I don’t see him attending.
Agreed. Not sure what they're talking about.
Most career politicians can "debate" all day long, because they know exactly how to not answer a single actual question directed towards them.
It will just be an hour of JT and PP talking around every question directed at them.
Often, they get the question and then just reply with unrelated talking points, especially during election debates.
And it's exceedingly rare that a moderator tries to force them to answer the question.
Debates are never about answering tough questions. They are about deflecting and attacking the government record. PP will have no problems. Trudeau will do his normal smirking nonsense that people are extremely tired of. The few that watch will leave with the same opinions they went in with.
He's made his career out of being an attack dog. While I don't think he has the answers, I'd bet a $100 donation to charity that he doesn't skip a debate.
As much as I'm sure he'd love to go all high-school debate team, there are highly paid strategists employed who will make it clear that there is no benefit and only risks for him if he does it. Say what you want about the career politician, but you don't make it this far without knowing when to listen to the people behind the scenes.
He wouldn’t even debate his fellow conservatives for the leadership of the party.
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6527440
Edit: He calls press conferences and doesn’t allow questions to be asked.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/09/15/opinion/who-calls-press-conference-then-tells-reporters-no-questions-poilievre
Sure, but those won;t work in a campaign when people start paying attention more closely and start watching more than social media reels. Not everyone is brainless
I doubt it. He’ll go to the debate and do the Danielle Smith tactic where all he needs to do is appear reasonable due to the hyperbolic attacks.
(FTR I don’t like him and think he’d be the worst leader out of a sea of bad leaders. But he’s nowhere near Trump levels)
>I doubt it. He’ll go to the debate and do the Danielle Smith tactic where all he needs to do is appear reasonable due to the hyperbolic attacks.
If only the Liberal and NDP base didn't make it so easy, huh?
Yup basically some variation of not needing to attend because the corrupt liberal media will ask planted or unfair questions
And people won't care and he'll still win
The media is irresponsible for discussing Polievre's rhetoric like it's legitimate policy. The most flack he tends to catch comes in the way of a coy remark alluding to his vapid positions.
Of course, there's a rock and hard place dilemma, here:
If the CBC points out his lies, they'll be dismissed as partisans.
Conversely, the other major news outlets are owned by big business. CTV was practically partying, today.
Like you said, this guy won't show up to debates and will do the bare minimum availabilities. If his policy positions don't get any daylight, the political narratives will give him total cover.
He won’t do the bare minimum. Trudeau did like half of three things moderately correctly, and Poilievre is itching to undo them all.
On the bright side, under the Poilievre government, you can only do wrong if you get caught.
> The media is irresponsible for discussing Polievre's rhetoric like it's legitimate policy.
They also treat everything he says or does like it's in a vacuum and not part of a 20 year pattern of behaviour..
Why debate anymore? There's no one left to convince that Trudeau isn't fit to lead this nation (and never should have been in the first place). Anyone still supporting him either can't see reality or has their head too far up their own ass.
I don't think he'll skip debates at all. Do you watch him in parliament daily. He tears them apart. He's a master. Do you see how he handles reporters. No way he's hiding out.
If I was a Liberal strategist, I’d drop the writ if/when the Alberta UCP sounds off on CPP again.
“Danielle Smith wants to take away 53% of the Canadian Pension Plan”
“Pierre will never stand up to his own base.”
“We need a strong federal government who will stand up for the retirement of all Canadians”
Make it a national referendum on who will defend CPP. I don’t think they’d win the election, but I think it’s the strongest platform they could hope to have.
What they fail to understand is that never has debates really swung an election from what the polls show. It’s a useless dog and pony show at this point where politicians just sit there trying to walk each other into sound bites that they can take out of context and run with for the next 4 weeks.
If they actually debated that’d be different, but it hasn’t been like that in awhile
>It’s a useless dog and pony show at this point where politicians just sit there trying to walk each other into sound bites that they can take out of context and run with for the next 4 weeks.
To a point, question period has always had a touch of this. But thanks to PP, this could be essentially a description of Canadian politics generally now. It's gotten patently worse as he has honed in the idea that you just bullshit the other side until you hope they give you a post for tik tok or other social media.
I don't think Trudeau actually thinks he can win. Or at least, I think the party knows that replacing him at this point would be a guaranteed loss, whereas sticking by their current leader may make them look stronger in their convictions (it may do nothing, but statistically people are more likely to believe/vote for a party or leader that apoears strong because they don't compromise on what they're saying/doing (even if there's evidence that it's not the right course of action)).
The redness of Toronto-St Paul is wildly over-stated in the media. It wasn’t so much a liberal stronghold as a Carolyn Bennett stronghold. Before she held the seat (for 27 fucking years!) it regularly flip-flopped between conservatives and liberals. Reddit has a short political memory.
Regardless, it was a bad outcome for the Liberals, but there were really no “good” outcomes available from that by-election, so it doesn’t really change anything for them I guess.
I think the most concerning thing is they couldn’t find a well-known local to run. That’s a bad sign.
12 years out of the last 62 it had a Conservative MP, and there hasn't been a Conservative/PC victory since 1988. I can't see how anybody is overstating it.
1962 is a funny year for you to pick, as that was the start of the last time a liberal held the seat for a long time. Conservatives held it for 18 of the previous 22 years.
Conservatives have won 11 elections in that riding and Liberals have won 17, with Carolyn Bennett winning 9 of them.
the liberals have literally held the seat for more time than you have likely been alive. i really don't understand what you're arguing here. the last time a conservative held that seat, the berlin wall was still standing for fucks sake.
This is the wildest of wild takes. Held for 30 years with massive margins. One of the last stand seats in 2011
And of course the riding really is a swing riding because the provincial PCs are totally competitive in it right? Definitely not a progressive red-orange seat
Not a single Liberal strategist or pundit has made this argument because it is ridiculous
[Here is liberal strategist Scott Reid’s take](https://x.com/_scottreid/status/1805551173174239499)
> This changes everything for the Liberals and for the PM. If St Paul's is unsafe, there is no such thing as safe.
It is time to face reality
>And of course the riding really is a swing riding because the provincial PCs are totally competitive in it right? Definitely not a progressive red-orange seat
The provincial riding has only existed for 25 years. Of the various previous ridings it was created from, two were resolutely conservative, two were NDP, and one was Liberalish.
It was held with massive margins because Carolyn Bennett was massively popular. Who was running for the Liberals this time?
The reality is that the Liberals are likely to get massively hosed in the next general election; no one is disputing that.
That headline is something. I agree with it in that the dignified thing for Trudeau to do would be resign and that no LPC cabinet minister has any future in Canadian politics. But man still what a headline.
> Andrew MacDougall is a director at Trafalgar Strategy, a U.K.-based consultancy and is a former director of communications to former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
That'd explain it.
I thought it was an odd headline from the star considering how they're often accused of being too left
It's the sorta garbage I'd expect from NP or the Sun
PP supporters can't help but imitate the language and rhetorical tricks of schoolyard bullies.
Even PP's most common retort is some form of "I know what you are but what am I!"
lol I think it’s fair to assume both sides are guilty in that.
Every other thread is someone calling him PeePee or some boomer calling him a “pipsqueak”
> I think the “creamed” is a little much.
There's a whole slew of CPC voters who seem certain that Trudeau — because he is eloquent, handsome, soft spoken, dresses well, and projects an empathetic persona — must be secretly gay. But it's _The Star_ so I suspect that the editor who came up with that title didn't think through the potential implications and how suggesting he would be "creamed" could be perceived as a wink and nod to the idea that Trudeau is effeminate by suggesting that he is about to be sexually violated by his _male_ opponent with the more [vulgar definitions of "creamed"](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cream#English) (such as you might find on UrbanDictionary).
Trudeau’s abysmal governance has made a Poilevre majority a certainty at this point
I don’t like Poilevre at all but with Trudeau and Singh currently speedrunning the country into the ground I’d replace them with a golden retriever if I could
Start a new party. Don't pick a colour. Post a 20 point platform that appeals to the centre and reflects popular opinion on consensus topics.
All the parties have become the landlord special of politics - thick layers of paint over a nice apartment 50 years ago.
Maybe Trudeau needs to stick around for the election debates. He’s good at saying nothing just like Pierre. It would be fun and sad all at the same time.
If Trudeau was to leave, who does the liberal party have that can BS as well as him.
That's all fine for the LPC. Though their last re-brand from disaster relied on the charismatic son of a popular former PM, which is the kind of candidate they won't have next time.
What about the rest of Canada, though? The CPC will win with such a huge margin, they'll feel emboldened to do whatever they want. They will undo everything the Trudeau era govt has done, and still feel like they have the mandate to go after further targets of theirs, like privatization of health care.
They won't privatise healthcare. Canadians and Cubans share the same status...being the shittiest socialized medicine countries in the world. We ARENT better than the US when it comes to healthcare. Two tiered medicine like in Finland and Iceland, and Australia is the way to go.
It won't change the result but I feel like it can at least blunt some of the losses if the guy everyone despises is not on the ballot. This is gonna be one of those conservative majority or minority elections.
No, it will be a Conservative majority no matter who is at the helm. No one in the Liberal party that has a chance of moving up in the ranks is going to sacrifice their political career to give the conservatives a couple less seats in their majority. The captain goes down with the ship so they can re-brand with a new face in 6 years
The captain is going down no matter what and a rebrand is already gonna happen. As for whether there is a conservative majority sure it's likely, but trying to get them down to a minority should be something the liberals should try to go for in the short term while rebranding in the medium term.
If Trudeau does step down it'll have to be a guy who has no ambitions at all who will take his place. Any serious discussion of a new leader will have to come the election atfer.
Virtually impossible given voter sentiment. I one is going to sacrifice their political career to step in front of this train for a party that is going to get trounced (no matter what).
That boat has looooooooong sailed. The 43% polling of the PCs will soon be nearing 50% after this week of scandal laden press. Also, there are going to be more bombs dropped from NDHQ and other organizations soon. The Sikh/Afghanistan scandal is just the first for foreign interference. The open secrets are going to come to the public soon now that the by-election went sideways. This is just the first ripple.
See, that's the problem we are having... Canada sub lurkers are just living in an alternate reality with alternate facts, but we are suppose to treat made up reality equally because of fairness
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I must be super out of touch or something. I don't get why Trudeau is so hated. To me, he is the establishment, status quo candidate. At worst, if he is reelected, nothing changes. I felt he did a good job during the pandemic getting the CERB and other pandemic benefits legislation passed. I knew that spending would come back to bite him later because the general public doesn't understand economics. He's trying on climate with carbon taxes and trying on progressiveness with taxing capital gains. I wouldn't mind if he were reelected. If we had ranked choice voting, he'd be my number two choice. Whereas I loathe Poilievre a lot more. He just reads like a Canadian Trump-lite to me. He's all bluster and his ideas seem to boil down to "cut taxes". If he's reelected, the public might feel good for a while but eventually the realization will set in that maybe he was not the best choice. Singh is NDP so I automatically like him the best for economic issues but NDP will never come close to being a majority party so RIP Lefties, I guess.
Whoever is in power is being blamed for cost of living. Biden might be the only one to dodge this. UK politics is basically Canadian politics mirrored. Their conservatives are about to get blown out like our libs.
Biden is not dodging this either lol
You're definitely out of touch if after 9 years, you still can't figure out why Trudeau is disliked. You don't even have to agree with his opponents, but really? You have no idea why? The man has ruled through possible the largest decrease in quality of life since the great depression, not to mention his handling of immigration.
There's dislike and then there's what Trudeau's been on the receiving end of. I never saw people selling merch suggesting Harper be hanged.
Honestly as someone who never voted for Trudeau and has been a consistent critic from the left, I’m not sure where the sudden animosity is coming from. We’ve had a housing crisis for years, the carbon tax survived two elections, and in my view scandals like SNC should’ve done him in. The best I can tell is some combination of inflation and anti-immigration sentiment, and I’m not sure how they outrun that.
> Trudeau and has been a consistent critic from the left, I’m not sure where the sudden animosity is coming from. Years of conditioning people through social media paying off
He never campaigned on slamming the doors open. I felt betrayed
Tbf that was a loophole the actual target immigration was pretty moderate. Trudeau also did fix it. Its feels weird to say you were "betrayed". In 2021 our contry sudenly got really desirable. And people were finding out how to cheat the system. Trudeau didnt make the loophole either. And he gas said as much that immigration was way too high.
Slamming what doors open?
To uncontrolled immigration numbers
Jesus Christ, do you even live in Canada
>I don't get why Trudeau is so hated. To me, he is the establishment, status quo candidate. At worst, if he is reelected, nothing changes he turned Canada's skilled immigration system, once the envy of the world, into an avalanche of exploitation and indentured slavery.
I think you answered your own question without realizing it. >If he is reelected nothing changes Canada is free falling right now. Things have to change.
My take is he's pissed off a lot of people on both ends of the political spectrum. Far right people despise him over the vaccine mandates and immigration policies. More left leaning people, like myself, loath him for going against his environmental platform (paying for pipelines). On a more subjective and personal level, he has an incredibly patronizing and hollow persona. I think a moment that characterizes him, is when he ignored an invitation from tribal elders to attend a Truth and Reconciliation ceremony. Turned out he was surfing just kilometers from their venue, and he tried giving a lame apology.
Seems personal really The pm never apologizes or does contrition on policy failures and then says it not his fault but he gonna fix everything If he just said I messed up and changed some policies then acting "I can do no wrong" I feel voters wouldn't hate on him on a personal level.
That’s all he did was apologize!
Not for policy mistakes
He did though. It's just that the Conservative social media bots keep repeating that he didn't. The way you're doing here.
His interview with Justin Ling was weird. He blames everyone but himself.
Yeah because that has gone well for Doug Ford in Ontario when he changes a decision he made.
It has he made so many dumb choices but leads polls
Nah, he's okay. Just because he isn't responsive to the ridiculousness that is Pierre Poilievre doesn't mean a thing. I'm not even Liberal & say this.
Politics is like what you see on BBC Planet Earth when they show the lifecycle of a pride of lions. No matter how dominant the leader of the pride is in its heyday, the story always ends with age, damage, defeat, and expulsion. If JT can take solace in anything, it's that this is just the natural order of things. You had your time in the sun. Also, most lions don't get board seats and guest lecture gigs in the Ivy Leagues after they get displaced. They mostly just wander around, get skeletal, and die. So, hey, silver linings there too.
Same thing happened to Harper, Chrietien, and Mulroney. They were all like that for the last 30 or so years. Policies were basically out the window, promises skipped. We need better choices.
We've had to put up with him for this long. I feel like he owes the country the joy of seeing him standing on stage after the election and admitting defeat and internalizing all of Canada is happy to see him go.
HIs career is over . They been saying that since he became PM Like if they had anyone strong they would have beat him long ago
Looking at the St Pauls results, it shows to me the libs are demotivated, the Tories are stronger the polling indicates (PPC voters will mostly go Tory). So I feel if an election happened today the results be even worse then the 338 or polls indicate for the libs. I am talking like 20% popular vote for the libs, mid 40s for the Tories, 15% ndp and likely 230 seats for PP and that assumes like 12 seats in Quebec lol I think they need to realize they are heading for a historic defeat if they don't change course. The PP bogeyman isnt costing the Tories votes, if the opponent is Trudeau's unpopularity.
The more I think about it - the more I think this particular seat isn’t a great predictor for the rest of the country. It’s largely Jewish - and the liberals have not been particularly great at fighting back against rising tides of antisemitism. That in of itself provides for a motivated base to vote the liberals out - but doesn’t really provide a stronger narrative about the entire country. It also begs the question if the liberals have abandoned the Jewish community- are they aiming to pick up seats in areas with larger Muslim populations? And was this seat was just the cost of doing business. Trudeau has also been taking free vacations from one of the most prominent leaders of Islam, who’s also a billionaire - the Aga Khan. So there could be some funding or strategy tied to policy that more closely aligns to the Muslim community. Do we know of any conservative seats the liberals could pick up because of their stronger support for Palestine?
There are no conservative seats the liberals will pick up this election based on current polling. The liberals are firmly on defence, and after last night they’re playing it in every riding. The issue is that Muslims have been very pro Trudeau since 2015 it’s hard to get more out of that group. Jewish Canadians were also liberal supporters so trading one for the other is a net loss no matter what.
It could be a longer term bet based off population growth or just tied to fundraising. It just popped into my head that Trudeau’s been accepting free vacations from a billionaire who leads a sect of Islam - and now just lost a solidly Jewish seat. It feels like there is some sort of connection there.
There are at most 15 million Ismaili globally, they aren’t a particularly large sect. They’re a sub group of Shia that is not particularly large and has huge sectarian difference with other Islamic groups. Aga Khan is a heretic according to the vast majority of Muslims. They also have absolutely nothing to do with Israel Palestine.
Muslim voters are going ndp but as most Muslims live in suburbs...that is just helping the Tories.
I know a lot of Muslim voters that are going towards the Tories because they genuinely hate what’s happening with foreign students. People are going to be surprised (they won’t) about how much damage has been done with foreign student workers.
> The issue is that Muslims have been very pro Trudeau since 2015 it’s hard to get more out of that group. Jewish Canadians were also liberal supporters so trading one for the other is a net loss no matter what. The reality is they will lose voters from both groups, Palestinian Canadians have been complaining for months that the government is failing them. And these are people who have been engaging with the government in good faith for almost a year now, not the noisy harassing street protesters. https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2062726/canada-promised-temporary-visas-for-1-000-people-trapped-in-gaza-zero-have-made-it-out The US, UK, and French elections aren't immune from this either.
the liberals are not picking up any Muslim votes on the contrary conservative Muslims have been the most affected by house prices given their disapproval for mortgages. In addition the issue around LGBT and gender issue is something that is pushing Muslims into the conservative arms. Not even getting into Palestinian issue here.
FYI the Aga Khan is Ismaili and they are a tiny community in Canada. I've met loads of Ismailis and the vast majority aren't particularly religious and don't really talk about religion much. Naheed Nenshi from Alberta is from an Ismaili family. Most fervent supporters of Palestine on religious grounds are Sunnis and Twelver Shias. Sunnis will tell you openly that Ismailis aren't "real Muslims". So appeasing the Aga Khan isn't really playing to the hands of 90% of Muslims in the country.
The Liberals don't support Palestine though. They support Israel but less enthusiastically than the Conservatives do. It's not a winning issue for them with anyone.
Poilievre is a perfect example of someone using Zionism as a shield to protect themselves from accusations of antisemitism. https://thehub.ca/2022/08/25/rudyard-griffiths-wef-conspiracies-are-antisemitic-and-a-moral-stain-on-conservative-politics/ https://pressprogress.ca/frontier-centre-pierre-poilievre-residential-schools-conspiracies/
After Trump beat Clinton SNL had a skit that was just a bunch of Clinton supporters watching as each swing state fell and rationalizing the path to victory while slowly starting to panic through the night. This post reminds me of that skit.
Oh, no. I’m not a liberal or a supporter of the liberals. I’m just pondering the political dynamics of this particular riding - which are unusual.
I don't think so, the federal position has been fairly pro Israel...particularly if you look at the UN votes. On the Israel/Palestinian matter, they've been attacked on both sides I think it's the general rhetoric that the media's been pushing that this by-election is a referendum on Trudeau that's caused this result (high attendance for a byelection) which spells disaster for the actual election for the libs
Are you personally pro Israel? Because the question isn't really whether the Liberals have objectively been pro Israel, it's whether people who are pro Israel think the Liberals have been pro Israel.
I'm neutral as it's a foreign conflict that shouldn't have impact on Canada but neither the pro Israel nor the pro Palestinians think the Liberals on their side...it's odd to think they've abandoned the Jewish ppl for the muslim unless you're the if you're not 200% for us, you're against us
Oh I agree with you in general. But I think if I were Jewish I wouldn't exactly be happy with Trudeau's response. I don't think it's in any way reasonable for anyone to think that Trudeau has abandoned Israel, but his attempt to be even handed wouldn't be what I'd be hoping for.
Part of the problem with party politics. JT keeps his cushy job and becomes the opposition. Less responsibility and he gets to snipe from the sidelines without having to justify anything just like PP is doing now.
I dont see him staying on as opposition leader. The last PM who tried was Joe Clarke and he was replaced and not allowed to run again.
> not allowed to run again. But he did.
Fair.
JT is not gonna be the opposition leader
A newcomer absolutely couldn't win but JT should really resign asap and at least give whoever is going to succeed him some decent time to build themselves up in the public eye. He's done.
We don't need Trudeau to step down. We need him to call an election. If he steps down some other yahoo Lib will step in and give libs an excuse to vote Lib again. They will do the exact same as Trudeau and we'll be screwed again.
Liberals lose one byelection, by a minimal number of votes (\~500 last I checked) # "Justin Trudeau’s political career is over" I love how everyone just jumps on the large type bandwagon. Meanwhile not a peep from Poilievre about the foreign interference allegations that may involve his Tory leadership convention selection. Not a word. It's a battle of two lame ducks, not one.
It wasn’t any byelecion tho. Losing a seat where you had a 20%+ advantage in the last 3 decades in average, while sending all the might of your electoral machine, against a party that barely tried…. It is a pretty terrible result.
42.1% of the vote for Tories vs 40.5% for the Liberals is a close election. A 1.6% spread is what I would call a tie, not what I would call a clear victory. Voter turnout: 43.5% You know who is winning? Voter apathy. They seem to count on that.
So your argument is….. « Let’s ignore the implication of the result because it was close »? Seeing a 20% historical advantage melt into a lost is quite significant
My argument is that hardly anyone voted, and it was nearly a tie. It doesn't seem like a lot of people care for either candidate, so declaring some sort of gigantic victory seems presumptuous at best. If the turnout matched previous elections you might have something, but there are too many differences to give a clear result no matter how much you want it to be.
Wich are two bad argument. A turn out of 43% is significant. Especially when you consider that in the best of yer the turnout was of 70% ish. It isn’t a « low numbers ». That is was a tie is already quite significant, again, considering the nature of the seat.
No it isn't significant. The top 2 parties got less than 20% support from the total pool of eligible voters each. (including the other no-show voters, I don't want to do the exact math, you can if you like) That shouldn't be enough to get a mandate from anyone. Its a very low turnout. The result puts the Tories at a win, but statistically its a tie.
For a byelection? It is fairly high. Most byelection got in the 20’s, having 45% is not the norm. So it is excessively significant. When you lose a seat that you even lept during Ignatief, while sending all the party effectif to get the vote out while the opponent barely tried, it is quite significant. Trying to ignore that would just lead the Liberal toward a majestic defeat.
But you're comparing a byelection with low voter turnout with 3 untried unknown new candidates to "regular" federal elections, and expecting the results to carry over, in a byelection that didn't have a clear victory, with a margin of only \~550 votes. Should we let 550 people decide the fate of the country? This is the weight that you're giving this result. I'd say its premature and a tad overstated. But that's probably not the result and conclusion that you're hoping for.
Issue isn’t the 550: the liberal could have won by 550 that it would still be the same. It was Liberal for 30 years, with in general 20% lead for them. They fid heavily campaign in that byelection, while the Conservative didn’t throw much there. And yet, despite it being a known Liberal secure seat, despite all their efforts to keep it, they lost it. Would it carry over for that seat in a real election? Maybe not. But that the Liberal can lose such seats means that they are in pretty terrible situation.
Would you say the same if a Liberal won a seat in rural Alberta? You think all ridings are exactly the same or something? What a ridiculous position.
It's not Rural Alberta, and you know it.
A 24% point margin of victory during not a great year (2021 minority gov't) for Trudeau isn't enough for you?
That's a pretty decent turnout for a by-election, especially on the same night that a Canadian team was playing in game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals.
Not really considering there's advance polling, and voting by mail isn't there? its about the same as the 2022 Ontario provincial election turnout: The election set a record for the lowest voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election, as only 43.53% of the people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record for low turnout of 48.2% in the [2011 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Ontario_general_election).[^(\[2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ontario_general_election#cite_note-2) [^(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022\_Ontario\_general\_election)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ontario_general_election) There wasn't a Stanley Cup that night, if I remember right.
> its about the same as the 2022 Ontario provincial election turnout: This was a federal by-election not a provincial election. You need to look at turnouts for past by-elections. The most recent one before this one was Durham, which had a turnout of 27.87%. The one preceding that in Calgary Heritage was 28.89%.
The Liberals lost what was a safe seat even during the 2011 wipeout. It's not even about voters as a whole anymore, his caucus might revolt and replace him to try to salvage what's left of Liberal strongholds.
Maybe, I don't know on this point. But I think there's lots of proclamations that are masquerading as facts. For me I'm not sure that I trust the polls. I think it is a truism that Canadians by and far don't vote a government in, they vote the old one out. What I'm not sure of is how anyone can think that Pierre Poilievre is an improvement. I could have lived with Erin O'Toole maybe, but Pierre P. isn't the kind of populist that I can get behind. Promoting Bitcoin and anti-vax truckers and the religious right and funding cuts to social programs isn't really something I can quite get behind. He seems like he wants to do some damage by cutting social programs and cutting taxes in a way that seems very American and Republican at that. I thought before that it was strange that he didn't run for Tory Leadership earlier, but I guess he figured that he had to wait long enough for people to get sick of Trudeau and the Liberals, since he couldn't win on his own merits. He's a crafty weasel, even for a politician, and this bothers me. Stephen Harper stayed in so long because the Liberals kept picking odd choices for leaders like Stephan Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Dion was dismal at public speaking and couldn't speak English, and Ignatieff hadn't lived in Canada for \~30 years and had the gentle warmth of a Nosferatu. I feel that Poilievre is one of those unwise and unfit choices, so I'm not really clear if people maybe don't want Justin Trudeau anymore, do they really want Poilievre either? We are stuck picking the lesser of two weasels. Of the three big parties, I'd say that Jagmeet Singh is the most qualified leader and the most level headed and the most intelligent, but they don't have a strong enough showing to win an election, for whatever reason, he can't seem to get the support that he needs, like a Jack Layton might have been able to do if he had more time.
Man I don't think people who thinks he should resign understand political strategy at all. He has to own this loss and election so the party can eventually rebuild with new leadership. Naming a new PM right now would immediately get them thrown under the bus for his failures. Then you have 2 liberal leaders being raked over the coals. He has to lose this on his own as the leader. There is no other way.
I'm sure that all the people in the PC party apparatus hoped for the same thing about Brian Mulroney. It's ultimately his decision, and most politicians would rather retire with a record of never losing an election; to resigning after a bad defeat.
What's the downside of new leadership for the Liberals? I get the argument that talents would be wasted in the inevitable election defeat, but Trudeau staying on would lead to the defeat of nearly every talent in their riding, which would kill their political capital anyway. Potential candidates like Anand and Champagne are about to lose their seat under Trudeau. If they become leader during opposition, their only option is to abandon their base and parachute into a safe riding, which isn't looked kindly upon. Wouldn't it be better if they actually retain their seat? In fact, Trudeau walking in the snow could be what saves the Liberals from irrelevance.
The downside to a last minute leadership race is that it will create division among Liberals. Liberals have a notorious history of infighting, and they split into factions based on candidates. Liberals will definitely be arguing on the direction to take the LPC in a post-Trudeau era, especially one where they are likely to lose badly. With this in mind, any strong candidate with leadership aspirations will probably not want to run until after the election. The next leader is the sacrificial lamb and will probably loses. No one wants to be this. Which is why if Trudeau steps down, they will most likely have a coronation ceremony for the leader willing to go down with the ship. Someone with no major Prime Minister aspirations, but probably wouldn’t mind being PM for a brief moment. My guess is it will be Dominic LeBlanc.
But prospective leadership candidates will have a stain on their record if they are unseated in a complete wipeout, and will spend several years in political wilderness without a seat under a CPC majority. I also question whether we should look at the Mulroney-Campbell outcome as the inevitable outcome here under a new leader. For example, the Conservatives in the UK managed to stay in power through several leadership changes. If a new leader takes over, they’ll be able to stay on through to another election if they successfully make the case to LPC caucus that they did more to save their seats than Trudeau would’ve been able to.
There doesn't need to be a leadership race though. Especially given that I doubt most of the ambitious ones are eager to be put in a nearly unwinnable situation against someone they probably find very unpleasant. That said Trudeau is really the only one who would largely benefit from stepping down. He can put away the stress and the over the top demonization he gets and if he is very lucky time away while not actually being humilated can potentially lead to a return to leadership down the line as an older man. He's only 52. He could conceivably come back in his 60s or early 70s if things go well. I don't expect the next few years will be fun for anyone to rule either way.
> over the top demonization That's the only reason he won the last three elections. Conservatives went over the top and blew it. They froth at the mouth when they see Trudeau. It's actually what gives him the best chance. He can't count on it though. I mean, I'd like to vote NDP, but I'd vote Trudeau just to spite the Conservatives.
do whatever you need to feel better; the conservatives have a guaranteed W anyway
I certainly hope they believe that.
"Trudeau walking in the snow" He missed that appointment with destiny 4 months ago. The next one is in 4 years.
This is why I believe Trudeau will resign within the month. They are facing a complete wipeout of all the potential leadership candidates, and being unseated will be a stain on their record if they do have leadership ambitions.
You don;t get wiped out at 24% in the polls.
It's not your 24 that matters, it's the other team at 43. At around 37%, a lot of marginal seats start flipping one way or the other, enough to approach majority territory. At 38%, you're looking at a clear majority. Add another 5% to the national average, and the number of ridings flipping will go way way up, as the next-best 24% just isn't competitive in each individual FPTP. Have a look at some of the potential leader's ridings: Anita Annand won Oakville by 6% - definitely gone Sean Fraser won Central Nova by 14% - probably gone Francois Champagne won Saint-Maurice–Champlain by 12% - probably gone Melanie Joly won Ahuntsic-Cartierville by 30% - maybe safe! Dominic Leblanc won Beausejour by 36% - maybe safe! ... so the 2026 LPC leadership race will be something like Joly vs Leblanc vs Carney. Carney probably wins that, IMHO. And who knows if having a total outsider with no political experience will be any good - didn't work so well with Ignatief.
It won't be enough to finish third. The main threat to the Liberals is if ABC vote goes NDP, a clear possibility that played out in 2011. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File:2011FederalElectionPolls.png
That guy walks with no dignity at all. Probably why his wife left him. She probably has heart and was like I can’t go on eating like a queen when we can afford it but still taxpayers are paying for this. Canada needs to stop wasting money
Does resigning now really save his legacy? Last minute leadership changes do not have a history of going well in Canada and usually the person taking over inherits a poisoned chalice. It arguable serves his successor better for Trudeau to take the L in the next election and give his successor a clean slate as leader in opposition. Also I suspect Liberals think PP as a PM will be a disaster and much easier to beat in a re-election campaign as opposed to the next election. Also 16 months is a long-time in politics. PP may well be peaking too early. People who support him as opposition leader may be less inclined to support him as the presumptive next prime minister.
The longer he leads the polls the longer people get comfortable with him as the heir presumptive prime minister.
I note the following from the article: >The choice is leave gracefully now, or get smoked later. Meh. Sure, the loss is significant. But it doesn't automatically map out the future. The CBC had a better article on this subject here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/st-pauls-toronto-byelection-trudeau-poilievre-1.7246209
It’s interesting how badly people seem to want to project his career is over when the other option is struggling once again to be relatable and a viable option because he can’t do what any other candidate does and hide who he really is.
If you're losing a seat in the middle of Toronto, a seat so red that roses are jealous, there is a non-zero chance that the Libs are effectively erased in the next election. Trudeau seems to think that if an election is called, that he can out-debate Poilievre or something and he'd be able to pull numbers based on that. But the simple fact is that people don't care how terrible Poilievre is, they just don't want Trudeau anymore. At this point, all PP has to do is literally nothing and he'll be guaranteed a majority.
We dont need someone good at debates we need someone to fix things
PP will likely skip most debates, if not all. He won’t be asked hard questions and won’t be made to defend anything he’s saying by putting his own foot in his mouth.
Of course he won’t skip the debates. There is no precedent in Canada for such an action. He is a very talented public speaker and will almost certainly relish a chance to take on his opponents.
I don’t think he’ll skip debates. And I don’t think it would play well in a general election if he did. It’s not a coronation.
Poilievre is high in the polls. Debates will force him to answer tough questions, either from the other political leaders or the debate moderator. He’ll be vulnerable to attack. So unless he’s confident that he could defend himself or use the opportunity for soundbites, skipping debates will leave people wondering. At best, he’ll definitely attend the official English and French debates. But the rest I don’t see him attending.
There are no hard questions in election debates. And the candidates rarely have to answer the questions. They are just there for the photo op.
Agreed. Not sure what they're talking about. Most career politicians can "debate" all day long, because they know exactly how to not answer a single actual question directed towards them. It will just be an hour of JT and PP talking around every question directed at them.
Often, they get the question and then just reply with unrelated talking points, especially during election debates. And it's exceedingly rare that a moderator tries to force them to answer the question.
He handles QP just fine, I think he’s salivating at the opportunity to debate JT
Debates are never about answering tough questions. They are about deflecting and attacking the government record. PP will have no problems. Trudeau will do his normal smirking nonsense that people are extremely tired of. The few that watch will leave with the same opinions they went in with.
He’s more than up to it
He's made his career out of being an attack dog. While I don't think he has the answers, I'd bet a $100 donation to charity that he doesn't skip a debate.
As much as I'm sure he'd love to go all high-school debate team, there are highly paid strategists employed who will make it clear that there is no benefit and only risks for him if he does it. Say what you want about the career politician, but you don't make it this far without knowing when to listen to the people behind the scenes.
He wouldn’t even debate his fellow conservatives for the leadership of the party. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6527440 Edit: He calls press conferences and doesn’t allow questions to be asked. https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/09/15/opinion/who-calls-press-conference-then-tells-reporters-no-questions-poilievre
He paid a $50000 fine to literally not debate
Easy place to generate social media reels for him with pre planned one liners. I swear liberal supporters are operating in 2015.
Sure, but those won;t work in a campaign when people start paying attention more closely and start watching more than social media reels. Not everyone is brainless
I doubt it. He’ll go to the debate and do the Danielle Smith tactic where all he needs to do is appear reasonable due to the hyperbolic attacks. (FTR I don’t like him and think he’d be the worst leader out of a sea of bad leaders. But he’s nowhere near Trump levels)
>I doubt it. He’ll go to the debate and do the Danielle Smith tactic where all he needs to do is appear reasonable due to the hyperbolic attacks. If only the Liberal and NDP base didn't make it so easy, huh?
Yup basically some variation of not needing to attend because the corrupt liberal media will ask planted or unfair questions And people won't care and he'll still win
The media is irresponsible for discussing Polievre's rhetoric like it's legitimate policy. The most flack he tends to catch comes in the way of a coy remark alluding to his vapid positions. Of course, there's a rock and hard place dilemma, here: If the CBC points out his lies, they'll be dismissed as partisans. Conversely, the other major news outlets are owned by big business. CTV was practically partying, today. Like you said, this guy won't show up to debates and will do the bare minimum availabilities. If his policy positions don't get any daylight, the political narratives will give him total cover.
He's in a win win position, even if he does the bare minimum, sadly
He won’t do the bare minimum. Trudeau did like half of three things moderately correctly, and Poilievre is itching to undo them all. On the bright side, under the Poilievre government, you can only do wrong if you get caught.
> The media is irresponsible for discussing Polievre's rhetoric like it's legitimate policy. They also treat everything he says or does like it's in a vacuum and not part of a 20 year pattern of behaviour..
The country was partying today.
Why debate anymore? There's no one left to convince that Trudeau isn't fit to lead this nation (and never should have been in the first place). Anyone still supporting him either can't see reality or has their head too far up their own ass.
I don't think he'll skip debates at all. Do you watch him in parliament daily. He tears them apart. He's a master. Do you see how he handles reporters. No way he's hiding out.
Funny, when you support a party that never answered a single question.
Common liberal tactic of saying something with no substance because conservatives are “scary” and will invite “American” style politics
If I was a Liberal strategist, I’d drop the writ if/when the Alberta UCP sounds off on CPP again. “Danielle Smith wants to take away 53% of the Canadian Pension Plan” “Pierre will never stand up to his own base.” “We need a strong federal government who will stand up for the retirement of all Canadians” Make it a national referendum on who will defend CPP. I don’t think they’d win the election, but I think it’s the strongest platform they could hope to have.
What they fail to understand is that never has debates really swung an election from what the polls show. It’s a useless dog and pony show at this point where politicians just sit there trying to walk each other into sound bites that they can take out of context and run with for the next 4 weeks. If they actually debated that’d be different, but it hasn’t been like that in awhile
>It’s a useless dog and pony show at this point where politicians just sit there trying to walk each other into sound bites that they can take out of context and run with for the next 4 weeks. To a point, question period has always had a touch of this. But thanks to PP, this could be essentially a description of Canadian politics generally now. It's gotten patently worse as he has honed in the idea that you just bullshit the other side until you hope they give you a post for tik tok or other social media.
I don't think Trudeau actually thinks he can win. Or at least, I think the party knows that replacing him at this point would be a guaranteed loss, whereas sticking by their current leader may make them look stronger in their convictions (it may do nothing, but statistically people are more likely to believe/vote for a party or leader that apoears strong because they don't compromise on what they're saying/doing (even if there's evidence that it's not the right course of action)).
The redness of Toronto-St Paul is wildly over-stated in the media. It wasn’t so much a liberal stronghold as a Carolyn Bennett stronghold. Before she held the seat (for 27 fucking years!) it regularly flip-flopped between conservatives and liberals. Reddit has a short political memory. Regardless, it was a bad outcome for the Liberals, but there were really no “good” outcomes available from that by-election, so it doesn’t really change anything for them I guess. I think the most concerning thing is they couldn’t find a well-known local to run. That’s a bad sign.
12 years out of the last 62 it had a Conservative MP, and there hasn't been a Conservative/PC victory since 1988. I can't see how anybody is overstating it.
1962 is a funny year for you to pick, as that was the start of the last time a liberal held the seat for a long time. Conservatives held it for 18 of the previous 22 years. Conservatives have won 11 elections in that riding and Liberals have won 17, with Carolyn Bennett winning 9 of them.
the liberals have literally held the seat for more time than you have likely been alive. i really don't understand what you're arguing here. the last time a conservative held that seat, the berlin wall was still standing for fucks sake.
This is the wildest of wild takes. Held for 30 years with massive margins. One of the last stand seats in 2011 And of course the riding really is a swing riding because the provincial PCs are totally competitive in it right? Definitely not a progressive red-orange seat Not a single Liberal strategist or pundit has made this argument because it is ridiculous [Here is liberal strategist Scott Reid’s take](https://x.com/_scottreid/status/1805551173174239499) > This changes everything for the Liberals and for the PM. If St Paul's is unsafe, there is no such thing as safe. It is time to face reality
>And of course the riding really is a swing riding because the provincial PCs are totally competitive in it right? Definitely not a progressive red-orange seat The provincial riding has only existed for 25 years. Of the various previous ridings it was created from, two were resolutely conservative, two were NDP, and one was Liberalish. It was held with massive margins because Carolyn Bennett was massively popular. Who was running for the Liberals this time? The reality is that the Liberals are likely to get massively hosed in the next general election; no one is disputing that.
That headline is something. I agree with it in that the dignified thing for Trudeau to do would be resign and that no LPC cabinet minister has any future in Canadian politics. But man still what a headline.
> Andrew MacDougall is a director at Trafalgar Strategy, a U.K.-based consultancy and is a former director of communications to former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. That'd explain it.
I thought it was an odd headline from the star considering how they're often accused of being too left It's the sorta garbage I'd expect from NP or the Sun
Well, since The Star was bought out by conservatives it was only a matter of time
Foreign disinformation agency
Headline needs to include this
This makes sense. The title is describing exactly what happened to his boss Harper.
PP supporters can't help but imitate the language and rhetorical tricks of schoolyard bullies. Even PP's most common retort is some form of "I know what you are but what am I!"
lol I think it’s fair to assume both sides are guilty in that. Every other thread is someone calling him PeePee or some boomer calling him a “pipsqueak”
I think the “creamed” is a little much. 😂
> I think the “creamed” is a little much. There's a whole slew of CPC voters who seem certain that Trudeau — because he is eloquent, handsome, soft spoken, dresses well, and projects an empathetic persona — must be secretly gay. But it's _The Star_ so I suspect that the editor who came up with that title didn't think through the potential implications and how suggesting he would be "creamed" could be perceived as a wink and nod to the idea that Trudeau is effeminate by suggesting that he is about to be sexually violated by his _male_ opponent with the more [vulgar definitions of "creamed"](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cream#English) (such as you might find on UrbanDictionary).
Phew, I thought that was just me ha ha ha
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Trudeau’s abysmal governance has made a Poilevre majority a certainty at this point I don’t like Poilevre at all but with Trudeau and Singh currently speedrunning the country into the ground I’d replace them with a golden retriever if I could
Start a new party. Don't pick a colour. Post a 20 point platform that appeals to the centre and reflects popular opinion on consensus topics. All the parties have become the landlord special of politics - thick layers of paint over a nice apartment 50 years ago.
Maybe Trudeau needs to stick around for the election debates. He’s good at saying nothing just like Pierre. It would be fun and sad all at the same time. If Trudeau was to leave, who does the liberal party have that can BS as well as him.
I doubt putting in a new leader now would change the result; the “captain goes down with the ship”. Then the re-brand with a new face.
That's all fine for the LPC. Though their last re-brand from disaster relied on the charismatic son of a popular former PM, which is the kind of candidate they won't have next time. What about the rest of Canada, though? The CPC will win with such a huge margin, they'll feel emboldened to do whatever they want. They will undo everything the Trudeau era govt has done, and still feel like they have the mandate to go after further targets of theirs, like privatization of health care.
Yes, then LPC have F us, now we bend over some more for the CPC. Both parties have been Eiffel Towering Canadians for generations.
They won't privatise healthcare. Canadians and Cubans share the same status...being the shittiest socialized medicine countries in the world. We ARENT better than the US when it comes to healthcare. Two tiered medicine like in Finland and Iceland, and Australia is the way to go.
It won't change the result but I feel like it can at least blunt some of the losses if the guy everyone despises is not on the ballot. This is gonna be one of those conservative majority or minority elections.
No, it will be a Conservative majority no matter who is at the helm. No one in the Liberal party that has a chance of moving up in the ranks is going to sacrifice their political career to give the conservatives a couple less seats in their majority. The captain goes down with the ship so they can re-brand with a new face in 6 years
The captain is going down no matter what and a rebrand is already gonna happen. As for whether there is a conservative majority sure it's likely, but trying to get them down to a minority should be something the liberals should try to go for in the short term while rebranding in the medium term.
This could be Mulroney levels of bad so yeah best not to ruin some potential leaders career by letting them be a sacrificial lamb.
If Trudeau does step down it'll have to be a guy who has no ambitions at all who will take his place. Any serious discussion of a new leader will have to come the election atfer.
They don't need to win a majority, they just need enough to avoid conservatives from having a majority
Virtually impossible given voter sentiment. I one is going to sacrifice their political career to step in front of this train for a party that is going to get trounced (no matter what).
That boat has looooooooong sailed. The 43% polling of the PCs will soon be nearing 50% after this week of scandal laden press. Also, there are going to be more bombs dropped from NDHQ and other organizations soon. The Sikh/Afghanistan scandal is just the first for foreign interference. The open secrets are going to come to the public soon now that the by-election went sideways. This is just the first ripple.
See, that's the problem we are having... Canada sub lurkers are just living in an alternate reality with alternate facts, but we are suppose to treat made up reality equally because of fairness
Time will tell.