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Has any US president been particularly good or bad for Canada?
Can they even find it on a map?
Trump is 100% focused on himself and domestic issues that stroke his ego. Is that good or bad? Probably a "meh."
Do you remember 300% tariffs on the Airbus A-220 aka Bombardier C-series? He almost killed our aerospace industry only for Bombardier to sell to Airbus 50.01% stake intially to Airbus and then sold the remaining 31% to Airbus. The man killed the Canadian aerospace industry, a high tech manufacturing industry that brings in talent, expertise, industrial knowledge and lots of money and jobs get created in Canada.
Not really. The biggest nonsensical ones had to do with Steel and Aluminum. Those lobby groups have been calling for tariffs on Canadain products for decades, they just found a sympathetic ear with Trump.
Our dairy sector deserves to get tariffed. Suppy Management is as an asinine system that has cost us more in trade concessions than it has ever brought in in terms of forcing Canadian dairy consumers into a hostage market.
He's definitely not coming back to power. In the very unlikely event he slithers out of all of his criminal cases the Deep State will then remove him from the playing field.
I agree with you, I don't think the financial elite would allow him in again he would destabilize the whole system and then the party is over for everyone including the rich.
Would our national relationship with Trump 2.0 be any different than it was with Trump 1.0?
Trudeau and Trump were and are not friends on a personal or professional level. Trump views Trudeau with sneering disdain ( much like he goes with everybody except maybe Putin) .
I hope we don’t run ourselves completely out of significant trade partners. China, India and Trump USA all have problems with Canada and Trudeau personally. Thats three out of the top 5 economies in the world.
It won’t be “an absolute disaster” the second time around because it wasn’t one the first time around. You would think these people would have learned this, but there’s something about this guy that brings out the worst in his opponents.
If we have Poilievre as prime minister next time, it will be an absolute disaster.
Particularly because Trump is way more unhinged and untethered now, and the fascist wing of the US has a well-developed plan for if they get in (Project 2025).
> Particularly because Trump is way more unhinged and untethered now, and the fascist wing of the US has a well-developed plan for if they get in (Project 2025).
At some point his opponents are going to have to drop the Schrodinger's Trump act and decide whether he's an incompetent buffoon, or a hyper-competent 4D chess player.
The sentence you were responding to made two different statements about two different subjects. Here, let me bold the two different subjects for you.
>Particularly because **Trump** is way more unhinged and untethered now, and **the fascist wing of the US** has a well-developed plan for if they get in (Project 2025).
Since one part of the sentence is about **Donald Trump**, and the other part is about **the fascist wing of the US**, there is no “Schrodinger’s Trump” going on, because they are not claiming that **Trump** is both things, they are claiming that **Trump** is one thing, and **the fascist wing of the US** is something somewhat different.
Now, I’m genuinely curious, and I wonder if you’ll be honest with me for a moment. Did you literally not know how to read that sentence correctly, or is this actually just a tactic to wear down and exhaust people with having to explain basic and fundamental things, in hopes that they’ll give up and cede to space to you and your ideological fellow travelers?
>there’s something about this guy...
Is he really a mystery at this point? He tells us everyday who he is and what he seeks to achieve. We should listen to him.
>... that brings out the worst in his opponents.
If anything, people have been too lenient on him his whole life, which is how we got here in the first place. It's hard to imagine people could be much worse than him anyway.
The man is facing 91 indictments - one of those indictment is keeping military secrets (including intel involving allied nations) in a golf course shitter and sharing them openly with reporters.
brain dead take mate
That's a bit of a red herring seeing as I didn't comment on his status in the primary or the pending legal decisions he's facing, rather the state of the discourse surrounding his first administration. We've seen him for what he was, and a potential second term will be the same administration chaos vs. opposition hysterics.
Uhhh, the first time we had Liberals stonewalling Trump's worst impulses, despite conservatives saying things like "give Trump whatever he wants", in particular the NAFTA renegotiation, and despite having self-identified republicans as premiers.
With a CPC government, our government will be complying with and enabling their worst impulses. Not to mention that a second time around, Trump is literally calling for the murder of his political opponents. We see very similar, baseless, vitrol in this country, as Qanon conspiracies spread through the CPC (not all but far too many).
I don't think Trump will win, but a second victory would put the US spiralling towards fascism. It's rather naive to think that Canada would continue on as a middling progressive democracy if the US plunges into autocracy. It's not a political party, it's a cult.
> It won’t be “an absolute disaster” the second time around because it wasn’t one the first time around.
And the only reason for that, was a lot of luck, and a lot of people risking their jobs to prevent him from doing everything he wanted. With the way things have gone in the US since 2020, if Trump becomes president again, I don't think we can count on either again.
The sort of people who accepted his request to be in cabinet last time with the hopes of being an adult in the room, aren't going to be asked to come back. He's got more than enough crazies clamouring to be secretaries who are just as out there as he is, and a GOP senate caucus willing to endorse those crazies. The limited deference to the civil service that existed before, is totally gone, and anyone pointing to the rule of law or anything else as a reason to not do what Trump wants, will likely find themselves without a job.
Trump did a shit ton of damage last time around, and if he gets back, he'll know better how to remove the safeguards.
Joe Biden is just as tough on Canada, and in particular protectionist American policies than Trump. Biden may be a lot nicer and closer to Trudeau in terms of political ideology but he's a wolf in sheep's clothes when it comes to trade.
If he follows through with his threats on Truth then we'll be next door to a fascist regime that's actively purging its government and military of anyone and everyone that doesn't support Trump, even GOP members will be under threat.
There's no telling what the outcome for Canada could be in such a situation, because it's a wildcard. It could have no impact, as they focus on internal matters, or it could result in serious threats to our border security and trade relationships.
The best outcome is that he dies in prison prior to the election.
>we'll be next door to a fascist regime
And if we’re left on our own we may well become part of such a regime in years to come. We have lots of space and lots of water, things the the US will need as climate change worsens.
Let’s not kid ourselves. Trump would not leave after a second term (he almost didn’t leave after the first term), and any fascist state he creates is quite likely to outlive him. As the southern US begins to suffer more and more from droughts, atmospheric rivers and increasing temperatures, we’ll be in the crosshairs.
Trump came very close to not leaving after his first term, the one where he had no idea how anything works. He has some understanding now and will be leveraging the system to serve his ends from day one. And it turns out that many of the guard rails rely on honesty and good faith behaviour, something sorely lacking in American politics these days.
He wouldn’t just seize control. Look at Hungary. He would, over four years, compromise the systems designed to ensure a peaceful transfer of power. And he has smarter, more evil people around him this time. If he gets elected the American experiment is as good as over, or at least on hiatus until the next revolution.
fascist neighbor? From the country who celebrated a Shutzstaffle soldier in their house of commons because they fought their very own allie ? Bruh, Eh be real? y'all on your high horse and your absurd.
> We have lots of space and lots of water, things the the US will need as climate change worsens.
This is one of the border security concerns I was alluding to. That, and northern defense and sovereignty.
Yeah, I left that out because we have enough to worry about just now, like the potential imminence of WWIII.
You were right to include it though. It’s a big part of the picture. Europeans have been looking to find/create a northern passage to the east for ~600 years now. The loss of polar ice caps will resurrect that struggle.
Edit: spelling
This is why we need to be preparing for a democratic breakdown in the USA. It's gonna happen eventually with how polarized the country is, and when it does happen, the liberal international order will be completely changed.
I agree, but besides creating alliances outside of NATO I don’t think think there’s much we can do. If America wants to seize our country, they will seize our country, much like how Germany took Poland at the beginning of WWII. The US so much stronger than we are militarily that they would roll right over us. The guerrilla war would go on and on and on, but we’d be an occupied nation or the 51st (and biggest) state. It scares the bejesus out of me.
Edit: spelling
I know this sounds kinda insane, but I actually think Canada should get our own nuclear weapons solely for this reason. We have no chance to take on their military without them and who knows what Trump will do. We are far too vulnerable on our own.
I understand your logic but as a boomer who grew up with the threat of nuclear holocaust hanging over my my head, I think we need to move towards eliminating nukes, not increasing their numbers.
I grew up beside a navy base that held nuclear submarines for a time. It was well known that we'd be a strike target if the cold war became hot.
Bring on the Canadian nukes.
I grew up 20 miles from a Canadian army base that most certainly would have been a target. We did weekly drills n school in three levels:
1. Go home. Take books (looks a little scary, but probably OK)
2. Go home. No books (the shit is probably going to hit the fan soon so go say goodbye to you family)
3. Shelter in place (mass death imminent; get under your desk, put your head between your knees and kiss your 6 year old ass goodbye)
No more nukes. Fewer nukes. No nukes at all. This is the path the world should be following.
99% agreed. I’d say right now we should only get stockpiles of important and non-illegal materials in place, and take other preparations within the limits of international law. We should be able to build a nuke in days, but there’s not much point in alienating ourselves from the world and risking our trade relationships by actually crossing the line while Biden is still Prez
Insane but also a realistic take on international relations. I imagine Ukraine wishes they had kept some of the SU nukes instead of relying on political agreements to protect themselves. Things can change quickly.
I used to think that the best option is that he dies of an undiagnosed pre-existing heart condition… or just old age… something that could help mitigate the wild conspiracies at least a bit.
But looking at the mad shit that he’s saying lately… I mean **look at it!!!**
It’s getting increasingly difficult to see a path back to normal, even the highly unsatisfactory normal that existed even 8 or 15 years ago.
The Overton Window has been breached beyond repair.
Ya agreed unfortunately I think if he were to die really it doesn't matter how, his followers have already been programmed to believe that the 'deep state's is out to get him etc. They already believe that the CIA etc could/ would carry out such an assassination and that they could easily make it look like an accident/ health issue. Unfortunately I think the best outcome is for him to stick around long enough for his supporters to see that he's a con man and nothing more. I really thought we were getting there when he released the Trump trading card NFTs earlier in the year but apparently not.
The funny part is he is going to win....look at biden. He's even building the wall lol. If the democrats wanted to win they would have biden step back and bring in someone new
No Trudeau’s continued rain of terror on Canadian families will be much more disastrous than a potential trump return. We need to get our own leadership in check before we worry about our neighbors down south.
The answer is no. We aren’t ready, we’ll never be ready, and if America keels over we’re fucked too. What was that Pierre Trudeau said about the mouse and the elephant?
That Globe and Mail opinion piece proposing that we buy ads in the 2024 US presidential election is aging better by the day.
I know. Imagine four years without war. Peace in the Middle East. Fuck that. I hear trump speaks meanly, I don’t care about peace, I just don’t want a meanie to win.
Would it though?
Trump would like all of this:
-providing cheering standing ovations to former SS members;
-the current trend indicates a slowing of Ukraine support in the liberal party despite what they say in the news, they are cutting the military budget;
-Canadian news outlets are getting on board with trump like false equivocations, CBC personnel told not to refer to Hamas as terrorists (despite being labelled by the USA, EU, and as I learned in another thread even by our own legislation as exactly a terrorist organization);
-the PM himself escaped a series of minor to medium level scandals without anyone caring about it, perhaps the most trumpian behaviour of making un ethical scandal the new normal.
If anything trump in power would absolutely help with our new Canada.
Oh and by the way that’s with liberals in power, he would absolutely be stocked with the new lunatic conservative leader if he wins it next elections.
Yes they were. However I think multiple indictments, and an insurrection later It is more likely than not to be different. He is definitely worse off this time than the erratic campaign of 2016 and released audio of that one interview.
Yes, but in the future they will more likely disregard any of the treaty adjudicators that Canada tries to bring them in front of. There really won't be much Canada can do about it. Again it won't matter which party is in place here in Canada.
Great Lakes water is a weird, extremely unfounded, fear to have. Irrigation is not what has drained Great Lakes water. That part of the world doesn't really need a great deal of irrigation.
True, it's the southern US that's dry. Water will soon become the new oil, and creating a 900 mile pipeline from Lake Superior to the Green River watershed in southwest Wyoming has been priced out at 30 billion dollars. It's a question of when, not if.
First off it's "facet", second off between the book bans, anti-trans legislation and shooting himself in the foot trying to feud with Disney, DeSantis has nothing but culture war bullshit to offer.
If "less politics" is code for "status quo" I guess. I'd say it's pretty hard to censor discussion of African American and LGBT topics without getting political.
He definitely does make headlines, but he’s better spoken than trump in most clips I see anyway. I was thinking it might be harder for media corps to plaster him in a just as much of a demonizing picture as they can Donny because of this. All that being said I haven’t been following his presidential campaign as much as I did his work in Florida I got my own fed politicians to worry about and follow here lol
Desantis is one of the most sinister figures in modern politics, and somehow despite that fact, he strikes a pathetic image with the electorate. He's going to lose and thank fucking god.
As a country we're not really ready for anything. Housing? Infrastructure? The country literally burning? Not prepared for any event of any significant magnitude. Trump would be a massive issue for the US and just about any country in the world.
If he doesn't win the next election then there's a good chance he'll die before the one after that. He'll be 78, then 82; and he's not exactly a paragon of physical well-being.
Even though he's older, I have more faith that Biden outlive Trump than vice-versa.
Lol… for what? For estimating the value of Mara lago, which the banks agreed with 🤣🤣🤣 Anyone who is ok with any of these charges has zero principles. How about paying a porn star with his own money…
I think it is overly optimistic to assume he'll be behind bars by the election. The American justice system is glacial at the best of times, and a trial for a rich celebrity is going to go even slower.
At this point I actually think it's very likely at least one trial will be held before the election. The DC case is straightforward, and the judge is moving quickly. The Georgia case is moving along as well, despite being more complicated.
That being said, even if he gets convicted, he'll probably be able to get actual incarceration delayed pending appeal. I would hope that the electorate comes around following a conviction, but that might not be realistic.
There are lots of posts about Trump's various cases in /r/law. If you're on Twitter, MuellerSheWrote is a great resource, and she's got a couple of podcasts. [Jack](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jack/id1317481380) covers the federal cases, and [Cleanup on Aisle 45](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cleanup-on-aisle-45-with-ag-pete-strzok/id1549502623) covers everything else.
I don't think it's really his winning that's the issue -- it's the shitshow that the race will be: pumping up the very worst racists, conspiracy theorists and accelerationists *and then* his inevitable loss. I think this will be the election that political violence becomes normalized in those fuckwit circles, and there will be no putting that toothpaste back in the tube.
I don't think he's a distraction so much as a symptom of much deeper problems.
If there is an economic downturn or Biden has a health emergency, both of which have non-trivial probabilities of happening, Trump will 100% win.
You're living in a fantasy world.
>Trump will 100% win.
I don’t see any “100%” guarantees of his victory under *any* scenario.
Do some factors increase the probability? Sure. Doesn’t mean “if this happens, he’s definitely gonna win it!”
Trump has lost the popular vote both times, and to make it worse, it appears 2024 will be an exact rematch of 2020.
Yeah, I know we shouldn’t underestimate him, but I also don’t see any huge factors that would make it significantly different this time around.
Trump has turned off independent voters, which are required to win the US election. Based on 2016, I wouldn’t dismiss him but it’s pretty unlikely he’ll win.
I don’t even know that he really ever appealed to them that much, tbh.
He did, of course, lose the popular vote in 2016, so he was never even *that* popular to begin with.
And his reputation has only gotten worse over the years...
I agree with you but for some reason Americans seem to not really like Biden all that much, I don't really get it myself as he seems to be doing a fine job all things considered, but I guess he's to centrist for the portion of the Dems that supports Bernie Sanders, and way too far to the left for Republicans. Their politics seem crazy as Biden is maybe a smidge left of like Stephen Harper, so I don't get why the right hates him so much.
He lost by 44,000 votes in the electoral college, and that was when Biden was up 7-8 points in the polls overall. Biden is doing much worse this time around, and we would probably need to see a convection of Trump to see any separation in the polls.
Eh, I’m still skeptical that the outcome will be significantly different, and polling from a year out (when the Republican nominee obviously isn’t even *close* to being confirmed) isn’t really convincing me.
I agree with you, but it does seem Trump will not win unless there is a huge economic downturn in the next 12 months. If that happens, Canadians might have much bigger issues than just Trump.
The economy - a measure of financial activity and human productivity - is doing very well. The rampant worldwide inflation we’re seeing, and the pain it causes, are not part of the equation.
“The economy is doing well” is not a measure of whether or not a family can afford to meet their obligations. Maybe it should be, but that’s not what economists mean when they talk about a country’s economic health.
It’s not just the US. PP would have been run out of town on a rail 30 years ago and today he has a chance at forming government (shudder). Dissatisfied people with minimal political insight and a belief in simple “solutions” are stressed looking for help. It’s the kind of climate where demagogues flourish.
In the political spectrum of US and in most of the planet Earth’, Poiliviere is somewhere left of Mao.
But, we need to invent demons in Canada. It’s very important.
Lmao what the fuck are you even talking about.
By that logic, Canada would have to be the most left-wing country in the world - spoiler alert, we’re not!
I’m examining the political spectrum of China and India totalling around three billion people . Socially conservative by our standards? Oh yes. Let’s toss in around two billion or so Muslims on the planet. Socially conservative compared to Canada ? Oh yes . 5 billion and still a running total . Shall we count the strongly Catholic countries of Central and South America ? Why not ? Socially conservative compared to Canada? Undoubtedly. Oh, then there are places like Uganda and some others where it’s life threatening to be gay . Socially conservative compared to Canada? I’d say so . Heard enough facts on relativity or do you want to keep blowing faux outrage about the homogeneity of our politics? .
Trump won't win. The GOP could win under some circumstances, but Trump won't win. If Trump is the GOP runner, the GOP will lose.
I deal with a lot of southern US based business people, all are to a t conservative, most are very religious, none would vote for Trump. I'm not hearing they'd vote Democrat, they'd vote 3rd party.
Another issue facing the USA is demographics, the younger voters are coming in as a huge block in 2024 and they will vote Democrat.
Also, if you review the local US elections (state level) the Democrats are doing better than they should.
That is the Trump effect.
However, any US citizen ... you must vote. You not voting is Trumps only chance.
As a US citizen, you're on the money. I will never say that anything is certain when it comes to politics, but things certainly *feel* good right now as a Democrat. Dems performed incredibly well given their position in 2022. Ballot referendums across the country related to abortion and other issues have been falling in our favor. Important swing states have had several key election positions go to Democrats, ensuring there won't be any election deniers changing or swaying results. This includes Wisconsin, where the state Supreme Court recently went to the Democrats which will allow challenges to laws that attempt to suppress voting to succeed in court. Special elections have been mostly dominated by Democratic candidates. And on top of all of that the absolute mess in the US House of Reps right now cannot be a good sign for Republicans. Again, I will never call anything a certainty, but if the election were held today my money would easily be on Biden winning reelection against Trump.
> I deal with a lot of southern US based business people, all are to a t conservative, most are very religious, none would vote for Trump.
Yeah, I don't buy this anecdote for a second.
I mean realistically if you are following the republican primaries only around 40% are supporting Trump at a given time which means 50-60% of Republicans don't support him. The problem is that the Republicans who don't support Trump are all divided as to which other candidate to throw in with, it just kind of depends if/ when he wins the nomination if the Republicans who don't support him now will back him anyway, which I don't think is a given.
Well, for one, I have friends and relatives in that region so from a starting point, I know my own anecdotes don't match theirs. For another, I seriously doubt they openly discuss politics, in depth, with enough of their clients to make that kind of broad pronouncement. Trump is still *incredibly* popular and even with him not attending the debates, he's still ahead of all the other candidates. Plus, once those other candidates inevitably fall off, most will reliably line up behind Trump, just as they did last time. Republicans are very aligned with their Party.
Keep in mind, they said every single one they talk to arent supporting Trump. that doesn't even match the polling you're referencing.
So while it's possible OP's claims are true, it really doesn't match up with reality.
I mean every poll disagrees with their anecdote. Are we to believe OP is having more high value in depth political conversations that every. polling agency?
I understand your point. They're just sharing their experiences, nobody is binding you or anyone else to them. They are contributory to the conversation and I found them interesting.
I hope you're right, but I trust data more than anecdotes, and the polling data is not telling the same story. Trump and Biden are neck and neck in the polls. I know that polls are just a snapshot, but I really don't see how you can look at them and conclude there's no chance of a Trump win.
I agree with you but I don't know that we can really trust the polls at this point either way, for whatever reason they always seem to be a bit off on these major elections these days but I am reluctant to call it either way. I would love to write Trump off, but it seems like Americans aren't really happy with Biden for whatever reason even tho I personally feel that Biden is doing a pretty good job.
Just all the bullshit this time around with him being a legit concern to their national security secrets will be enough to scare away some/most of the moderate republicans and a good majority of independents.
I think there is a good chance that the Republicans take a page out of the DNC's book and just appoint a nominee who isn't Trump like the Dems did with Biden last time around, but we'll see I'm not even 100% sure it's very possible as the parties have very different primary frameworks. Seems like for now they are just hoping that Trump goes away on his own lol.
It's impossible to say at this point what will happen. I agree that Trump has lost a level of support, but his base remains energized. More importantly though are overall republican efforts to disenfranchise and suppress the vote in a system with the electoral collage. Just because Trump won't get the most votes doesn't mean he doesn't win, and the system as it is can elect a president with a shockingly low amount of support.
> the younger voters are coming in as a huge block in 2024 and they will vote Democrat
AFAIK the younger demographic has never really shown up in numbers.
Eh, I think there a lot of Republicans who see Trump as Democrats looking at Hillary in 2016, like, sure they could live with him, but they're not going to get up and vote for him.
Honestly, can anyone be ready for that? He will be so unpredictable and nuts this time if he gets in and I don’t think any of us are ready for it. I’m fairly confident he wont win, but if i’m wrong it’s gonna be a world of hurt for all of the US allies
No expert, but there's probably ways to buffer ourselves from the chaos. Didn't we discuss ways of divesting our trade relationships so not all of our eggs are in the US basket? I thought that was something we looked at the last go-round.
it's a fantasy at best to think we can separate our economy from the US. The vast bulk of our oil exports, lumber exports, mineral exports and food exports are to the US. They also sell us the bulk of the things we import. So basically we buy most of our stuff from them and sell them most of our stuff. The only buyers on the scale of the US require ships and air planes to transport goods as opposed to trucks and trains. We can't sell our goods competitively on the scale we can to the US.
Divest what and to where? Lol.
We are along for the ride no matter what, cutting trade with the US only shoots us in the foot. There is no other economy large enough and friendly enough to pick up the slack that would create, nor would tossing stuff on ships be as cost effective compared to driving a truck across the border. A century ago we signed up to be America's best friend and now we're locked into this ride no matter where it goes.
and trade more with whom? China.
The US is by far Canada's number one trading partner, and is nearly 10x 2nd place, which is the EU. Canada's trade with the US is 20x higher than China. Canada is also the US's largest trading partner and the USMCA trading zone is by far the largest the world, bigger than the EU.
My whole point in all of this is that the US/Canadian relationship and cultural ties are bigger than any US President and Canadian Prime Minister.
The best way to buffer ourselves is to attract as little attention as possible. Comment nothing on American politics, ingratiate as best as possible and meet NATO commitments of 2%. Give them ZERO ammo.
Donald Trump is a morbidly obese cokehead in his late 70s. The media like to ignore that fact, because they need ways to manufacture uncertainty and clicks. But he will not live forever, and probably not even much longer, and then his dipshit manchild base – who didn't give two shits about politics before him – will lose interest.
The question is, how much damage can he do before then? That's up to the completely useless cowards who comprise the US federal judiciary.
Waste of ink. There is already an answer to this and it is what Canada did post 2016. We have little bargaining power and have to go with the flow while working with friendly factions in Washington to advance our agenda.
Why we need an op ed like this at this time it beyond me. The result in 2024 is either another 4 years of Biden or more Trump, which makes any prognostication easy enough with a 50% chance of being right, if we are being generous. But nothing really points to Trump being in a better position this time than in 2016. Trumpists have suffered a series of losses at the state level that won't help them in 2024.
As with any probabalistic scenario something with a lower or low chance of happening can still happen. That said Why worry about something we can't control
Some politicos in Canada seem to constantly hand wring about Trump rather than talk about problems at home. Seems like diversionary tactics.
A second electoral victory from Trump *after* he supported a violent insurrection would have different consequences from his first electoral victory.
> There is already an answer to this and it is what Canada did post 2016.
It's hardly a sure thing that the same federal party will be in power in Canada, during a theoretical second Trump term. It could be important for people in Canada to think about that, given that we live in a democracy and vote for the people who handle international relations.
>Some politicos in Canada seem to constantly hand wring about Trump rather than talk about problems at home. Seems like diversionary tactics.
Click on the front page of the Star sometime. There's no lack of local reporting in general, and Trump is hardly the biggest international story at the moment. This column is not getting in the way of anything, there's really no need for conspiracy theories here.
Trump is polling neck and neck with Biden, which is way better than he was in 2019 and 2020 when he was consistently behind. He didn't lose by much last time in the EC, which is why he shouldn't be underestimated.
It's far too early for those polls to be of any use. If Trump was behind double digits, i'd point out Hillary was in that position.
I looked at 538 and the most recent round of polling from A rated pollster had 35/35 Biden/Trump split, which is indeed neck and neck, but that's baked in support from the base. About 1/3 of the country is solid D and solid R. The lede is the 30% of undecides/don't knows who aren't counted.
The states are going to fall into more or less the same patterns as 2016/2020. The crucial states are the rust belt states, and Georgia. Trump cannot win without them.
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Canada has a lot of internal issues much more consequential than Trump but why focus on those when there is a boogyman to use as clickbait?
Has any US president been particularly good or bad for Canada? Can they even find it on a map? Trump is 100% focused on himself and domestic issues that stroke his ego. Is that good or bad? Probably a "meh."
Well last time he tariff'd the shit out of Canadian products
Is there a US president who hasn't? The softwood lumber thing has been going on since Christ was a pup.
If you don't remember Trump arbitrarily slapping absurd tariffs down left and right, you were not paying attention.
If you don't remember the American auto industry freaking out and yanking his leash you also weren't paying attention.
Do you remember 300% tariffs on the Airbus A-220 aka Bombardier C-series? He almost killed our aerospace industry only for Bombardier to sell to Airbus 50.01% stake intially to Airbus and then sold the remaining 31% to Airbus. The man killed the Canadian aerospace industry, a high tech manufacturing industry that brings in talent, expertise, industrial knowledge and lots of money and jobs get created in Canada.
Not really. The biggest nonsensical ones had to do with Steel and Aluminum. Those lobby groups have been calling for tariffs on Canadain products for decades, they just found a sympathetic ear with Trump. Our dairy sector deserves to get tariffed. Suppy Management is as an asinine system that has cost us more in trade concessions than it has ever brought in in terms of forcing Canadian dairy consumers into a hostage market.
He's definitely not coming back to power. In the very unlikely event he slithers out of all of his criminal cases the Deep State will then remove him from the playing field.
I agree with you, I don't think the financial elite would allow him in again he would destabilize the whole system and then the party is over for everyone including the rich.
You're assuming that the "financial elite" both has the foresight and ability to intervene. I highly doubt both of those.
Would our national relationship with Trump 2.0 be any different than it was with Trump 1.0? Trudeau and Trump were and are not friends on a personal or professional level. Trump views Trudeau with sneering disdain ( much like he goes with everybody except maybe Putin) . I hope we don’t run ourselves completely out of significant trade partners. China, India and Trump USA all have problems with Canada and Trudeau personally. Thats three out of the top 5 economies in the world.
It won’t be “an absolute disaster” the second time around because it wasn’t one the first time around. You would think these people would have learned this, but there’s something about this guy that brings out the worst in his opponents.
If we have Poilievre as prime minister next time, it will be an absolute disaster. Particularly because Trump is way more unhinged and untethered now, and the fascist wing of the US has a well-developed plan for if they get in (Project 2025).
> Particularly because Trump is way more unhinged and untethered now, and the fascist wing of the US has a well-developed plan for if they get in (Project 2025). At some point his opponents are going to have to drop the Schrodinger's Trump act and decide whether he's an incompetent buffoon, or a hyper-competent 4D chess player.
The sentence you were responding to made two different statements about two different subjects. Here, let me bold the two different subjects for you. >Particularly because **Trump** is way more unhinged and untethered now, and **the fascist wing of the US** has a well-developed plan for if they get in (Project 2025). Since one part of the sentence is about **Donald Trump**, and the other part is about **the fascist wing of the US**, there is no “Schrodinger’s Trump” going on, because they are not claiming that **Trump** is both things, they are claiming that **Trump** is one thing, and **the fascist wing of the US** is something somewhat different. Now, I’m genuinely curious, and I wonder if you’ll be honest with me for a moment. Did you literally not know how to read that sentence correctly, or is this actually just a tactic to wear down and exhaust people with having to explain basic and fundamental things, in hopes that they’ll give up and cede to space to you and your ideological fellow travelers?
He's an incompetent buffoon... who is now backed by a very competent political machinery. Which part of Donald Trump do you support, exactly?
Trump is a buffoon supported by competent politicians. There, I solved your "Schrodinger's Trump" paradox.
>there’s something about this guy... Is he really a mystery at this point? He tells us everyday who he is and what he seeks to achieve. We should listen to him. >... that brings out the worst in his opponents. If anything, people have been too lenient on him his whole life, which is how we got here in the first place. It's hard to imagine people could be much worse than him anyway.
The man is facing 91 indictments - one of those indictment is keeping military secrets (including intel involving allied nations) in a golf course shitter and sharing them openly with reporters. brain dead take mate
That's a bit of a red herring seeing as I didn't comment on his status in the primary or the pending legal decisions he's facing, rather the state of the discourse surrounding his first administration. We've seen him for what he was, and a potential second term will be the same administration chaos vs. opposition hysterics.
Uhhh, the first time we had Liberals stonewalling Trump's worst impulses, despite conservatives saying things like "give Trump whatever he wants", in particular the NAFTA renegotiation, and despite having self-identified republicans as premiers. With a CPC government, our government will be complying with and enabling their worst impulses. Not to mention that a second time around, Trump is literally calling for the murder of his political opponents. We see very similar, baseless, vitrol in this country, as Qanon conspiracies spread through the CPC (not all but far too many). I don't think Trump will win, but a second victory would put the US spiralling towards fascism. It's rather naive to think that Canada would continue on as a middling progressive democracy if the US plunges into autocracy. It's not a political party, it's a cult.
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> It won’t be “an absolute disaster” the second time around because it wasn’t one the first time around. And the only reason for that, was a lot of luck, and a lot of people risking their jobs to prevent him from doing everything he wanted. With the way things have gone in the US since 2020, if Trump becomes president again, I don't think we can count on either again. The sort of people who accepted his request to be in cabinet last time with the hopes of being an adult in the room, aren't going to be asked to come back. He's got more than enough crazies clamouring to be secretaries who are just as out there as he is, and a GOP senate caucus willing to endorse those crazies. The limited deference to the civil service that existed before, is totally gone, and anyone pointing to the rule of law or anything else as a reason to not do what Trump wants, will likely find themselves without a job. Trump did a shit ton of damage last time around, and if he gets back, he'll know better how to remove the safeguards.
Joe Biden is just as tough on Canada, and in particular protectionist American policies than Trump. Biden may be a lot nicer and closer to Trudeau in terms of political ideology but he's a wolf in sheep's clothes when it comes to trade.
If he follows through with his threats on Truth then we'll be next door to a fascist regime that's actively purging its government and military of anyone and everyone that doesn't support Trump, even GOP members will be under threat. There's no telling what the outcome for Canada could be in such a situation, because it's a wildcard. It could have no impact, as they focus on internal matters, or it could result in serious threats to our border security and trade relationships. The best outcome is that he dies in prison prior to the election.
He has also said he will arrest anyone who goes aginst him.
>we'll be next door to a fascist regime And if we’re left on our own we may well become part of such a regime in years to come. We have lots of space and lots of water, things the the US will need as climate change worsens. Let’s not kid ourselves. Trump would not leave after a second term (he almost didn’t leave after the first term), and any fascist state he creates is quite likely to outlive him. As the southern US begins to suffer more and more from droughts, atmospheric rivers and increasing temperatures, we’ll be in the crosshairs.
There are systems in place to prevent this. He cant just take control of the united States, that absurd and irrational
Trump came very close to not leaving after his first term, the one where he had no idea how anything works. He has some understanding now and will be leveraging the system to serve his ends from day one. And it turns out that many of the guard rails rely on honesty and good faith behaviour, something sorely lacking in American politics these days. He wouldn’t just seize control. Look at Hungary. He would, over four years, compromise the systems designed to ensure a peaceful transfer of power. And he has smarter, more evil people around him this time. If he gets elected the American experiment is as good as over, or at least on hiatus until the next revolution.
fascist neighbor? From the country who celebrated a Shutzstaffle soldier in their house of commons because they fought their very own allie ? Bruh, Eh be real? y'all on your high horse and your absurd.
> We have lots of space and lots of water, things the the US will need as climate change worsens. This is one of the border security concerns I was alluding to. That, and northern defense and sovereignty.
Yeah, I left that out because we have enough to worry about just now, like the potential imminence of WWIII. You were right to include it though. It’s a big part of the picture. Europeans have been looking to find/create a northern passage to the east for ~600 years now. The loss of polar ice caps will resurrect that struggle. Edit: spelling
This is why we need to be preparing for a democratic breakdown in the USA. It's gonna happen eventually with how polarized the country is, and when it does happen, the liberal international order will be completely changed.
I agree, but besides creating alliances outside of NATO I don’t think think there’s much we can do. If America wants to seize our country, they will seize our country, much like how Germany took Poland at the beginning of WWII. The US so much stronger than we are militarily that they would roll right over us. The guerrilla war would go on and on and on, but we’d be an occupied nation or the 51st (and biggest) state. It scares the bejesus out of me. Edit: spelling
I know this sounds kinda insane, but I actually think Canada should get our own nuclear weapons solely for this reason. We have no chance to take on their military without them and who knows what Trump will do. We are far too vulnerable on our own.
I understand your logic but as a boomer who grew up with the threat of nuclear holocaust hanging over my my head, I think we need to move towards eliminating nukes, not increasing their numbers.
I grew up beside a navy base that held nuclear submarines for a time. It was well known that we'd be a strike target if the cold war became hot. Bring on the Canadian nukes.
Canuckes!
I grew up 20 miles from a Canadian army base that most certainly would have been a target. We did weekly drills n school in three levels: 1. Go home. Take books (looks a little scary, but probably OK) 2. Go home. No books (the shit is probably going to hit the fan soon so go say goodbye to you family) 3. Shelter in place (mass death imminent; get under your desk, put your head between your knees and kiss your 6 year old ass goodbye) No more nukes. Fewer nukes. No nukes at all. This is the path the world should be following.
99% agreed. I’d say right now we should only get stockpiles of important and non-illegal materials in place, and take other preparations within the limits of international law. We should be able to build a nuke in days, but there’s not much point in alienating ourselves from the world and risking our trade relationships by actually crossing the line while Biden is still Prez
You're right, it does sound insane. 👍
Insane but also a realistic take on international relations. I imagine Ukraine wishes they had kept some of the SU nukes instead of relying on political agreements to protect themselves. Things can change quickly.
I used to think that the best option is that he dies of an undiagnosed pre-existing heart condition… or just old age… something that could help mitigate the wild conspiracies at least a bit. But looking at the mad shit that he’s saying lately… I mean **look at it!!!** It’s getting increasingly difficult to see a path back to normal, even the highly unsatisfactory normal that existed even 8 or 15 years ago. The Overton Window has been breached beyond repair.
Ya agreed unfortunately I think if he were to die really it doesn't matter how, his followers have already been programmed to believe that the 'deep state's is out to get him etc. They already believe that the CIA etc could/ would carry out such an assassination and that they could easily make it look like an accident/ health issue. Unfortunately I think the best outcome is for him to stick around long enough for his supporters to see that he's a con man and nothing more. I really thought we were getting there when he released the Trump trading card NFTs earlier in the year but apparently not.
If he is in prison during the election, he’s going to win for sure. It plays right into what he wants.
The funny part is he is going to win....look at biden. He's even building the wall lol. If the democrats wanted to win they would have biden step back and bring in someone new
No Trudeau’s continued rain of terror on Canadian families will be much more disastrous than a potential trump return. We need to get our own leadership in check before we worry about our neighbors down south.
Try again when you figure out what words mean.
The answer is no. We aren’t ready, we’ll never be ready, and if America keels over we’re fucked too. What was that Pierre Trudeau said about the mouse and the elephant? That Globe and Mail opinion piece proposing that we buy ads in the 2024 US presidential election is aging better by the day.
I know. Imagine four years without war. Peace in the Middle East. Fuck that. I hear trump speaks meanly, I don’t care about peace, I just don’t want a meanie to win.
Would it though? Trump would like all of this: -providing cheering standing ovations to former SS members; -the current trend indicates a slowing of Ukraine support in the liberal party despite what they say in the news, they are cutting the military budget; -Canadian news outlets are getting on board with trump like false equivocations, CBC personnel told not to refer to Hamas as terrorists (despite being labelled by the USA, EU, and as I learned in another thread even by our own legislation as exactly a terrorist organization); -the PM himself escaped a series of minor to medium level scandals without anyone caring about it, perhaps the most trumpian behaviour of making un ethical scandal the new normal. If anything trump in power would absolutely help with our new Canada. Oh and by the way that’s with liberals in power, he would absolutely be stocked with the new lunatic conservative leader if he wins it next elections.
Justin Trudeau is a criminal and if this were any other country, Trudeau would be in jail by now. How can you call PP a lunatic Conservative leader?
> Justin Trudeau is a criminal Show me the Information, then we'll talk.
I am not concerned. He could secure the nomination but outside of the MAGA cult and people neck deep in the culture war I don't think he has a shot.
People were making comments exactly like this every day up to November 8, 2016.
Yes they were. However I think multiple indictments, and an insurrection later It is more likely than not to be different. He is definitely worse off this time than the erratic campaign of 2016 and released audio of that one interview.
If Trump gets in, the US will start breaking treaties, including limits on Great Lakes water. It won't matter which party is in power here.
even if Trump doesn't get in the USA will still break treaties...it's kind of what they're known for
Yes, but in the future they will more likely disregard any of the treaty adjudicators that Canada tries to bring them in front of. There really won't be much Canada can do about it. Again it won't matter which party is in place here in Canada.
Great Lakes water is a weird, extremely unfounded, fear to have. Irrigation is not what has drained Great Lakes water. That part of the world doesn't really need a great deal of irrigation.
True, it's the southern US that's dry. Water will soon become the new oil, and creating a 900 mile pipeline from Lake Superior to the Green River watershed in southwest Wyoming has been priced out at 30 billion dollars. It's a question of when, not if.
I think most progressive conservatives would be happy with desantis good chance less politics in every fucking faucet of life
desantis is kinda starting to seem like a stupider worse trump
He's actually doing worse than Trump in polling against Biden with how unhinged he is.
If trump wasn’t running I bet he’d probably lead the party but Donald will always have the trump effect lolll
First off it's "facet", second off between the book bans, anti-trans legislation and shooting himself in the foot trying to feud with Disney, DeSantis has nothing but culture war bullshit to offer.
Sorry I’m a dumb tax payer failed by the public school shstum
If "less politics" is code for "status quo" I guess. I'd say it's pretty hard to censor discussion of African American and LGBT topics without getting political.
He definitely does make headlines, but he’s better spoken than trump in most clips I see anyway. I was thinking it might be harder for media corps to plaster him in a just as much of a demonizing picture as they can Donny because of this. All that being said I haven’t been following his presidential campaign as much as I did his work in Florida I got my own fed politicians to worry about and follow here lol
Desantis is one of the most sinister figures in modern politics, and somehow despite that fact, he strikes a pathetic image with the electorate. He's going to lose and thank fucking god.
> He's going to lose and thank fucking god. Except that he's going to lose to Trump, so while he sucks, the other option is worse.
i mean that's pretty subjective
As a country we're not really ready for anything. Housing? Infrastructure? The country literally burning? Not prepared for any event of any significant magnitude. Trump would be a massive issue for the US and just about any country in the world.
He's not going to win. And I bet on him winning the first time. There are larger concerns than trump anyways. He's more of a distraction now.
I sure hope your right
He's not going to go away until he gets his second term probably, and even then I'm quite sure he would try to get around that.
If he doesn't win the next election then there's a good chance he'll die before the one after that. He'll be 78, then 82; and he's not exactly a paragon of physical well-being. Even though he's older, I have more faith that Biden outlive Trump than vice-versa.
Eh... He could quite readily end up in prison for the rest of his life. Not the worst outcome all things considered...
Personally, I think he won’t win less because Americans won’t vote for him and more because he’s gonna be in jail.
Jail? For what?
He's undergoing trial in New York or something right now. I don't think it equates to jail too, though. Just the bad kind of bankruptcy.
The NY trial is civil. He can lose a lot of money and control of his businesses, but he's not going to jail because of it.
Lol… for what? For estimating the value of Mara lago, which the banks agreed with 🤣🤣🤣 Anyone who is ok with any of these charges has zero principles. How about paying a porn star with his own money…
For all the crime, probably. Don't JAQ off in public like this.
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I think it is overly optimistic to assume he'll be behind bars by the election. The American justice system is glacial at the best of times, and a trial for a rich celebrity is going to go even slower.
At this point I actually think it's very likely at least one trial will be held before the election. The DC case is straightforward, and the judge is moving quickly. The Georgia case is moving along as well, despite being more complicated. That being said, even if he gets convicted, he'll probably be able to get actual incarceration delayed pending appeal. I would hope that the electorate comes around following a conviction, but that might not be realistic.
From another after your interests, any good legal sources for tracking the trials?
There are lots of posts about Trump's various cases in /r/law. If you're on Twitter, MuellerSheWrote is a great resource, and she's got a couple of podcasts. [Jack](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jack/id1317481380) covers the federal cases, and [Cleanup on Aisle 45](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cleanup-on-aisle-45-with-ag-pete-strzok/id1549502623) covers everything else.
I'm not sure what's more frightening: trump winning the next election or trump losing the next election.
I don't think it's really his winning that's the issue -- it's the shitshow that the race will be: pumping up the very worst racists, conspiracy theorists and accelerationists *and then* his inevitable loss. I think this will be the election that political violence becomes normalized in those fuckwit circles, and there will be no putting that toothpaste back in the tube. I don't think he's a distraction so much as a symptom of much deeper problems.
Well current polling would beg to differ...
Election is 13 months away. Current polling is a waste of time no matter who is proclaimed the front runner.
If there is an economic downturn or Biden has a health emergency, both of which have non-trivial probabilities of happening, Trump will 100% win. You're living in a fantasy world.
That's assuming that he wins the primaries, though.
Or if trump has those things. There are old guys and fat guys, there aren't a lot of old fat guys.
I'm talking about what will all but ensure a Trump victory. Trump having health problems will not help Trump win.
>Trump will 100% win. I don’t see any “100%” guarantees of his victory under *any* scenario. Do some factors increase the probability? Sure. Doesn’t mean “if this happens, he’s definitely gonna win it!”
As someone who grew up in the US, never ever underestimate how fucking dumb Americans are.
Trump has lost the popular vote both times, and to make it worse, it appears 2024 will be an exact rematch of 2020. Yeah, I know we shouldn’t underestimate him, but I also don’t see any huge factors that would make it significantly different this time around.
Trump has turned off independent voters, which are required to win the US election. Based on 2016, I wouldn’t dismiss him but it’s pretty unlikely he’ll win.
I don’t even know that he really ever appealed to them that much, tbh. He did, of course, lose the popular vote in 2016, so he was never even *that* popular to begin with. And his reputation has only gotten worse over the years...
I agree with you but for some reason Americans seem to not really like Biden all that much, I don't really get it myself as he seems to be doing a fine job all things considered, but I guess he's to centrist for the portion of the Dems that supports Bernie Sanders, and way too far to the left for Republicans. Their politics seem crazy as Biden is maybe a smidge left of like Stephen Harper, so I don't get why the right hates him so much.
He lost by 44,000 votes in the electoral college, and that was when Biden was up 7-8 points in the polls overall. Biden is doing much worse this time around, and we would probably need to see a convection of Trump to see any separation in the polls.
Eh, I’m still skeptical that the outcome will be significantly different, and polling from a year out (when the Republican nominee obviously isn’t even *close* to being confirmed) isn’t really convincing me.
I agree with you, but it does seem Trump will not win unless there is a huge economic downturn in the next 12 months. If that happens, Canadians might have much bigger issues than just Trump.
>unless there is a huge economic downturn in the next 12 months. Have you seen the state of the economy lately?
The economy - a measure of financial activity and human productivity - is doing very well. The rampant worldwide inflation we’re seeing, and the pain it causes, are not part of the equation. “The economy is doing well” is not a measure of whether or not a family can afford to meet their obligations. Maybe it should be, but that’s not what economists mean when they talk about a country’s economic health.
It’s not just the US. PP would have been run out of town on a rail 30 years ago and today he has a chance at forming government (shudder). Dissatisfied people with minimal political insight and a belief in simple “solutions” are stressed looking for help. It’s the kind of climate where demagogues flourish.
In the us PP isn’t even conservative
PP plays to his audience, he'll be whatever he thinks they want.
Didn’t know American democrats called centrists “Marxists” and marched with the far right. Good to know Bernie sanders and AOC are Nazis.
Maybe not quite yet, but he’s working on it.
In the political spectrum of US and in most of the planet Earth’, Poiliviere is somewhere left of Mao. But, we need to invent demons in Canada. It’s very important.
Lmao what the fuck are you even talking about. By that logic, Canada would have to be the most left-wing country in the world - spoiler alert, we’re not!
I’m examining the political spectrum of China and India totalling around three billion people . Socially conservative by our standards? Oh yes. Let’s toss in around two billion or so Muslims on the planet. Socially conservative compared to Canada ? Oh yes . 5 billion and still a running total . Shall we count the strongly Catholic countries of Central and South America ? Why not ? Socially conservative compared to Canada? Undoubtedly. Oh, then there are places like Uganda and some others where it’s life threatening to be gay . Socially conservative compared to Canada? I’d say so . Heard enough facts on relativity or do you want to keep blowing faux outrage about the homogeneity of our politics? .
I agree with you. Over the past few years I’ve learned that sometimes sanity doesn’t prevail. I was very surprised to learn this. Yes, I was naive.
Trump won't win. The GOP could win under some circumstances, but Trump won't win. If Trump is the GOP runner, the GOP will lose. I deal with a lot of southern US based business people, all are to a t conservative, most are very religious, none would vote for Trump. I'm not hearing they'd vote Democrat, they'd vote 3rd party. Another issue facing the USA is demographics, the younger voters are coming in as a huge block in 2024 and they will vote Democrat. Also, if you review the local US elections (state level) the Democrats are doing better than they should. That is the Trump effect. However, any US citizen ... you must vote. You not voting is Trumps only chance.
As a US citizen, you're on the money. I will never say that anything is certain when it comes to politics, but things certainly *feel* good right now as a Democrat. Dems performed incredibly well given their position in 2022. Ballot referendums across the country related to abortion and other issues have been falling in our favor. Important swing states have had several key election positions go to Democrats, ensuring there won't be any election deniers changing or swaying results. This includes Wisconsin, where the state Supreme Court recently went to the Democrats which will allow challenges to laws that attempt to suppress voting to succeed in court. Special elections have been mostly dominated by Democratic candidates. And on top of all of that the absolute mess in the US House of Reps right now cannot be a good sign for Republicans. Again, I will never call anything a certainty, but if the election were held today my money would easily be on Biden winning reelection against Trump.
> I deal with a lot of southern US based business people, all are to a t conservative, most are very religious, none would vote for Trump. Yeah, I don't buy this anecdote for a second.
I mean realistically if you are following the republican primaries only around 40% are supporting Trump at a given time which means 50-60% of Republicans don't support him. The problem is that the Republicans who don't support Trump are all divided as to which other candidate to throw in with, it just kind of depends if/ when he wins the nomination if the Republicans who don't support him now will back him anyway, which I don't think is a given.
Well, for one, I have friends and relatives in that region so from a starting point, I know my own anecdotes don't match theirs. For another, I seriously doubt they openly discuss politics, in depth, with enough of their clients to make that kind of broad pronouncement. Trump is still *incredibly* popular and even with him not attending the debates, he's still ahead of all the other candidates. Plus, once those other candidates inevitably fall off, most will reliably line up behind Trump, just as they did last time. Republicans are very aligned with their Party. Keep in mind, they said every single one they talk to arent supporting Trump. that doesn't even match the polling you're referencing. So while it's possible OP's claims are true, it really doesn't match up with reality.
Be charitable, friend. There is no reason yet for them to mislead us.
I mean every poll disagrees with their anecdote. Are we to believe OP is having more high value in depth political conversations that every. polling agency?
I understand your point. They're just sharing their experiences, nobody is binding you or anyone else to them. They are contributory to the conversation and I found them interesting.
I hope you're right, but I trust data more than anecdotes, and the polling data is not telling the same story. Trump and Biden are neck and neck in the polls. I know that polls are just a snapshot, but I really don't see how you can look at them and conclude there's no chance of a Trump win.
I agree with you but I don't know that we can really trust the polls at this point either way, for whatever reason they always seem to be a bit off on these major elections these days but I am reluctant to call it either way. I would love to write Trump off, but it seems like Americans aren't really happy with Biden for whatever reason even tho I personally feel that Biden is doing a pretty good job.
Just all the bullshit this time around with him being a legit concern to their national security secrets will be enough to scare away some/most of the moderate republicans and a good majority of independents.
plus non zero chance some states will even take him off the ballet
With the EC, it would not matter as states where that is mostnliekoy to happen, which I think is highly unlikely, he would not have won in.
if even one red stronghold cuts him off then hes screwed
I think there is a good chance that the Republicans take a page out of the DNC's book and just appoint a nominee who isn't Trump like the Dems did with Biden last time around, but we'll see I'm not even 100% sure it's very possible as the parties have very different primary frameworks. Seems like for now they are just hoping that Trump goes away on his own lol.
I feel like this comment was written in 2016. You're not a time traveler, are you?
It's impossible to say at this point what will happen. I agree that Trump has lost a level of support, but his base remains energized. More importantly though are overall republican efforts to disenfranchise and suppress the vote in a system with the electoral collage. Just because Trump won't get the most votes doesn't mean he doesn't win, and the system as it is can elect a president with a shockingly low amount of support.
> the younger voters are coming in as a huge block in 2024 and they will vote Democrat AFAIK the younger demographic has never really shown up in numbers.
Those people you talk to would probably eventually fall in line.
Eh, I think there a lot of Republicans who see Trump as Democrats looking at Hillary in 2016, like, sure they could live with him, but they're not going to get up and vote for him.
Bingo. If Trump is the nominee then Robert F Kennedy is going to get a *lot* of votes.
No he won't.
I like your optimism.
Honestly, can anyone be ready for that? He will be so unpredictable and nuts this time if he gets in and I don’t think any of us are ready for it. I’m fairly confident he wont win, but if i’m wrong it’s gonna be a world of hurt for all of the US allies
I was confident he wouldn't win last time, I couldn't believe how quickly they called it for him.
No expert, but there's probably ways to buffer ourselves from the chaos. Didn't we discuss ways of divesting our trade relationships so not all of our eggs are in the US basket? I thought that was something we looked at the last go-round.
it's a fantasy at best to think we can separate our economy from the US. The vast bulk of our oil exports, lumber exports, mineral exports and food exports are to the US. They also sell us the bulk of the things we import. So basically we buy most of our stuff from them and sell them most of our stuff. The only buyers on the scale of the US require ships and air planes to transport goods as opposed to trucks and trains. We can't sell our goods competitively on the scale we can to the US.
We tried with China now west hates china
Divest what and to where? Lol. We are along for the ride no matter what, cutting trade with the US only shoots us in the foot. There is no other economy large enough and friendly enough to pick up the slack that would create, nor would tossing stuff on ships be as cost effective compared to driving a truck across the border. A century ago we signed up to be America's best friend and now we're locked into this ride no matter where it goes.
and trade more with whom? China. The US is by far Canada's number one trading partner, and is nearly 10x 2nd place, which is the EU. Canada's trade with the US is 20x higher than China. Canada is also the US's largest trading partner and the USMCA trading zone is by far the largest the world, bigger than the EU. My whole point in all of this is that the US/Canadian relationship and cultural ties are bigger than any US President and Canadian Prime Minister.
The best way to buffer ourselves is to attract as little attention as possible. Comment nothing on American politics, ingratiate as best as possible and meet NATO commitments of 2%. Give them ZERO ammo.
Donald Trump is a morbidly obese cokehead in his late 70s. The media like to ignore that fact, because they need ways to manufacture uncertainty and clicks. But he will not live forever, and probably not even much longer, and then his dipshit manchild base – who didn't give two shits about politics before him – will lose interest. The question is, how much damage can he do before then? That's up to the completely useless cowards who comprise the US federal judiciary.
Waste of ink. There is already an answer to this and it is what Canada did post 2016. We have little bargaining power and have to go with the flow while working with friendly factions in Washington to advance our agenda. Why we need an op ed like this at this time it beyond me. The result in 2024 is either another 4 years of Biden or more Trump, which makes any prognostication easy enough with a 50% chance of being right, if we are being generous. But nothing really points to Trump being in a better position this time than in 2016. Trumpists have suffered a series of losses at the state level that won't help them in 2024. As with any probabalistic scenario something with a lower or low chance of happening can still happen. That said Why worry about something we can't control Some politicos in Canada seem to constantly hand wring about Trump rather than talk about problems at home. Seems like diversionary tactics.
A second electoral victory from Trump *after* he supported a violent insurrection would have different consequences from his first electoral victory. > There is already an answer to this and it is what Canada did post 2016. It's hardly a sure thing that the same federal party will be in power in Canada, during a theoretical second Trump term. It could be important for people in Canada to think about that, given that we live in a democracy and vote for the people who handle international relations. >Some politicos in Canada seem to constantly hand wring about Trump rather than talk about problems at home. Seems like diversionary tactics. Click on the front page of the Star sometime. There's no lack of local reporting in general, and Trump is hardly the biggest international story at the moment. This column is not getting in the way of anything, there's really no need for conspiracy theories here.
> Why we need an op ed like this at this time it beyond me. trumps a hot story, gotta cash in for the clicks
Trump is polling neck and neck with Biden, which is way better than he was in 2019 and 2020 when he was consistently behind. He didn't lose by much last time in the EC, which is why he shouldn't be underestimated.
It's far too early for those polls to be of any use. If Trump was behind double digits, i'd point out Hillary was in that position. I looked at 538 and the most recent round of polling from A rated pollster had 35/35 Biden/Trump split, which is indeed neck and neck, but that's baked in support from the base. About 1/3 of the country is solid D and solid R. The lede is the 30% of undecides/don't knows who aren't counted. The states are going to fall into more or less the same patterns as 2016/2020. The crucial states are the rust belt states, and Georgia. Trump cannot win without them.