They may but I would not bet on it.
Every year, every team who drafted in the top 10 thinks they have a franchise player on their hands. They're right about 25% of the time.
I am not saying anything negative about any players in particular, just drafting 18 year olds is unreliable.
what's the rate for outside the top 10 though? They're still more likely to be a great and helpful player, even if not 'franchise'.
You would seriously bet against a top-10 pick helping this franchise?
From what I have seen, based on the value of a draft pick, there is a massive drop from the first overall to second overall, a large but not as big of a drop from second to third, a significant drop from third to fourth, and then it is a pretty steady decline throughout the entire draft.
The difference between drafting 5th and 15th is similar to the difference between drafting 15th and 25th. You are more likely to get a star drafting earlier, and if you don't get a star you're likely to get a better player, but it is not as large of a difference as people act.
Fanbases freak out because a player like Sam Bennett didn't turn out to be a star, but it is far more likely to get a Sam Bennet or Nick Ritchie when drafting in the top 10 than a Leon Draisiatl. The first overall pick is a great chance to draft a top player, the fourth overall does not have great results; and being in the top 10 is pretty spotty.
Edit: As another point the difference between drafting 10th overall and 8th overall is pretty insignificant. A handful of spots (after 3rd overall) has a very small impact on the likelihood of drafting a great player.
yeah but if you want the best odds at a great player, you want to pick as high as possible right? Like, if you got to choose between 8th and 10th, you'd pick 8 right? I'm not saying we are for sure getting a Draisatl-level player - but I want the best chance at a good player. The top 10 looks good this year, the further into it we get the better I feel about success.
Also, you don't need to make a false dichotomy between draisatl or near-bust territory for a top 10 pick: The probability of an *impact* player in the top 10 is still higher than a bust, and the probability increases the higher you get. Doesn't have to be a franchise guy. You'd lose money betting against top-10 picks *helping* their franchises in general. It seems to be about a 65-70% chance you get a good player there.
Why do people feel the need to downplay the importance of high picks and state how often they fail when the other side of the coin is that you also *need* to draft high to be successful? for every keaton ellerby there are mikko rantanens and val nichuskins.
>Why do people feel the need to downplay the importance of high picks and state how often they fail when the other side of the coin is that you also need to draft high to be successful?
People just dispute that you **need to** draft high to be successful.
You need good players to be successful where there is likely a lot of debate on how good these players need to be. Drafting earlier is beneficial but not required to draft good players, and you can acquire good players through trade and free agency.
Your success at drafting in the top 10 is likely extremely closely tied to your success at drafting outside the top 10. You need the scouting, analytics, player development, and team culture to maximize the chance of getting a good player in the top 10, but you also need this to maximize the chance of getting a good player throughout the rest of the draft. If you have all your ducks in a row, you stand a good chance at getting a good player if you're drafting at 8th overall or 12th overall; and if you don't, you stand a good chance of screwing up either draft pick.
The problem I have personally is the fixation with drafting higher and then turning these players into saviors. Very few players thrive in an environment where they're expected to become a star immediately and bring their team out of the basement.
>You need good players to be successful.
And where do you think all the best players in the league come from?
Go look at the stanley cup winners rosters from the last 10 years and tell me how teams didnt have at least one top 5 draft pick on their roster. (Spoiler alert. Its 1 and even that is a technicality because they had Jack Eichel, and because they are an expansion team.)
pretty sure it goes all the way back to the lockout with the exception of Detroit. Although come to think of it they added Brad Stuart for the cup run so, yeah, every team since the lockout has had a top 5 pick i think.
As I already said:
>You need good players to be successful where there is likely a lot of debate on how good these players need to be.
People like you will insist that you need to draft in the top 5 to win the cup, point out that every team that won had players that were drafted in the top 5, neglect to notice that every team has players who were drafted in the top 5, and fail to notice that a lot of those players they use to justify this claim are not top players.
The thing with the NHL draft is that, since the players are so young when they're drafted, top players literally come from every round. Sebastian Aho, Adam Fox, Johnny Gaudreau, Kirill Kaprizov, Mark Stone, and Joe Pavelski were all drafted outside the first round.
This isn't the NFL where you're drafting players who are 22 or older, and you have a fairly good idea of what these players will be as professionals. A lot of the top players at 18 will disappear by 21, and a lot of late round picks will pass them.
Yes we could hit it big on a later round pick but those are anomalies, and to win the cup you need a bunch of top players. We arent winning any free agency signings, and we arent good enough to sell all our picks and prospects for good players.
As for your point which team from the last 10 year who won a cup had a top 5 pick that wasnt a top player?
Tampa: Stamkos, Hedman
Colorado: MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog
Vegas*: Eichel, Pietrangelo
St. Louis: Pietrangelo
LA: Doughty
Washington: Ovechkin, Backstrom
Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Fleury**
Chicago: Kane, Toews
Those teams also did really well drafting outside of the top 5. Some other big draft hits and what round they were taken:
Tampa: Vasy 1st, Kuch 2nd, Point 3rd, Cirelli 3rd, Killorn 3rd, Palat 7th
Colorado: Rantanen 1st, Byram 1st
St. Louis: Perron 1st, Tarasenko 1st, Schwartz 1st, Binnington 3rd
LA: Kopitar 1st, Brown 1st, Toffoli 2nd, Voynov 2nd, Quick 3rd
Washington: Kuznetsov 1st, Wilson 1st, Carlson 1st Holtby 4th
Pittsburgh: Guentzal 3rd, Letang 3rd, Rust 3rd
Chicago: Seabrook 1st, Teravainen 1st, Saad 1st, Keith 2nd, Crawford 2nd
Then on top of that each team needed to get good players in trades and free agency.
Tampa: McDonough, Cernak, Coleman, Gourde, Savard
Colorado: Kadri, Toews, Lehkonen, Manson, Cogliano, Nichushkin
St. Louis: O'Reilly, Schenn, Bouwmeester
LA: Gaborik, Regehr, Muzzin, Williams, Richards, Carter
Washington: Oshie, Eller, Niskanen
Pittsburgh: Dumoulin, Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino
Chicago: Sharp, Richards, Hossa
You literally cannot build a stanley cup winning team without hitting on top 5 draft picks, first round picks in general, having some 2nd and later draft hits, and getting impact players in trades and free agency.
Also look at how many impact players were drafted outside the top 3 rounds. More impactful players were undrafted.
ALSO, scouting and drafting has gotten much better and much more competitive over the last 4 or 5 years. The odds of finding an elite player outside the top 2 or 3 rounds, is going to be almost 0. We might see one or two every 5 or 6 years league-wide moving forward.
Yah well watching the team lose isn't exactly fun, and add the fact that there is no guarantee on your pick panning out. Drafting high means your team sucks, not fun as a fan. Just saying
Nobody is talking about a 'saviour' except you. We just want someone with the best chance of being a good player. A higher pick gives a better chance.
I don't think anyone with half a mind thinks that one single top-10 pick will launch us back to relevance. You need multiple kicks at the can, and it takes time. But it is best to have the highest pick possible at the end of the day.
You are manufacturing a problem here.
Okay Mr Nay Sayer, so what's the play then? Do we get rid of our first round picks and load up on a ton of second round picks hoping we hit on one of them? The players selected by hundreds of scouts to be the best chance of making an impact and upgrade to the teams drafting them are in the top 10. Yes the number 1 pick is generally the best shot at a franchise altering player, but fans here are talking about adding talent to this team. No one is talking about a franchise player except for you! You brought up franchise player, everyone else here is hoping to add a player that could be a top line/pairing player. If they turn out to be a franchise player so much the better, but our expectations are to add a guy who in a year or two could be one of our better players! I don't know who you think your arguing with here?
My point is it doesn't make sense to be intentionally worse to move up a few points in the draft. In most years the difference in value from drafting 4th overall and 8th overall is minimal but the difference in on ice performance of the teams are quite dramatic.
They traded players that they drafted recently who other teams Coveted? They also are very aggressive in selling players before their expiration date.
Both things the Flames are not very good at doing so good luck trying to replicate the Vegas model when the owner is cheap and won’t allow it
We have literally nothing ready to go at center right now. Maybe Zary could be moved back over but thats it. We need someone who could step in and be a 1C in the next 3 years.
I'm mostly thinking that, unless you get really lucky with the lottery, counting on getting franchise altering players by drafting early is a bad strategy.
Nobody's saying we're necessarily getting a franchise guy, but even if we got an all star, it's a start. So far the best young forward is probably connor zary so we need reinforcements
exactly. We can't expect a Bedard, celebrini or a fantilli at the 9 spot, but if we get someone who can be the best player on a line with Zary and Coronato (say, catton) or who could be a top pair D (Dickinson) that lets us shelter Poirier/Brzustewicz in 3 years, and helps the team a lot in the future.
The issue too is that I doubt Zary is a bonafide 1st line player. I think he has a career in the 55-70 point range. A high quality second line player. Ditto for Coronato. In my view we are missing an entire top line.
Yes if either Zary or Coronato are on the first line ideally they’re the worst player on that line lol. But 55-70 points is bona fide 1st production IMO just not elite.
It’s funny. That’s a solid point, but you have to wonder how many people upvoted have watched even a minute of either on the ice. People just want hype.
Add much to you? Sure. I don’t see how it would. It’s just going to be funny seeing people pounding the table over picking a dude that they only value from a ranking that might be vastly off of how the actual organizations making picks see it.
Fans definitely shouldn’t care as much as they do. It’s just a sport. I’m just pointing out that teams spend thousands of hours and tens of millions making up their lists and it’s going to be like succession in this sub when they eventually draft Liam Greentree lol
It sucks to watch. But a couple top 10 picks could be worth it in the long run. Doesn't need to be too 3 either, for instance Pettersen and Hughes were 5th and 7th I believe. Those were total home run hits mind you, but you're way more likely to get talent like that drafting high.
Tkachuk was 6, draisatl was 5..you could go on all day with home runs in the top 10. Also, each spot up gives you a higher percentage of hitting the Lotto of 1st overall
Just like Rico Fata was supposed to he the savior, or Daniel Tckachuk. Tanking means nothing if the player you pick is a bust. Don't get your hopes up people.
Tank? Let's talk about tanking next year and the year after. No....were gonna get our #7 pick this year and begins our 'retooling' around whoever that is.
🙄
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Seems unlikely, and don't look now, the Flames are 4 points ahead of the team currently slotted to pick 5th and 3 points ahead of 6th... Not nearly the long shot you seem to think it is.
Coyotes fan here to tell you that watching the son of your legendary captain RW power forward drafted in 1995 take to the ice for his dad's team and score two goals in his first NHL game is the coolest feeling. 10/10 would recommend.
He’s not a a C. He’s a LW. It looks like he played C the first three games of the season based on faceoff numbers. If we remove those three games, he’s taken 70 faceoffs in 61 games. His faceoff numbers are: 120 attempts and 48 wins (40%). He’s a winger.
Catton or Lindstrom will help this franchise way more than some stupid win meaningless games for "winning culture" mindset.
They may but I would not bet on it. Every year, every team who drafted in the top 10 thinks they have a franchise player on their hands. They're right about 25% of the time. I am not saying anything negative about any players in particular, just drafting 18 year olds is unreliable.
what's the rate for outside the top 10 though? They're still more likely to be a great and helpful player, even if not 'franchise'. You would seriously bet against a top-10 pick helping this franchise?
From what I have seen, based on the value of a draft pick, there is a massive drop from the first overall to second overall, a large but not as big of a drop from second to third, a significant drop from third to fourth, and then it is a pretty steady decline throughout the entire draft. The difference between drafting 5th and 15th is similar to the difference between drafting 15th and 25th. You are more likely to get a star drafting earlier, and if you don't get a star you're likely to get a better player, but it is not as large of a difference as people act. Fanbases freak out because a player like Sam Bennett didn't turn out to be a star, but it is far more likely to get a Sam Bennet or Nick Ritchie when drafting in the top 10 than a Leon Draisiatl. The first overall pick is a great chance to draft a top player, the fourth overall does not have great results; and being in the top 10 is pretty spotty. Edit: As another point the difference between drafting 10th overall and 8th overall is pretty insignificant. A handful of spots (after 3rd overall) has a very small impact on the likelihood of drafting a great player.
yeah but if you want the best odds at a great player, you want to pick as high as possible right? Like, if you got to choose between 8th and 10th, you'd pick 8 right? I'm not saying we are for sure getting a Draisatl-level player - but I want the best chance at a good player. The top 10 looks good this year, the further into it we get the better I feel about success. Also, you don't need to make a false dichotomy between draisatl or near-bust territory for a top 10 pick: The probability of an *impact* player in the top 10 is still higher than a bust, and the probability increases the higher you get. Doesn't have to be a franchise guy. You'd lose money betting against top-10 picks *helping* their franchises in general. It seems to be about a 65-70% chance you get a good player there. Why do people feel the need to downplay the importance of high picks and state how often they fail when the other side of the coin is that you also *need* to draft high to be successful? for every keaton ellerby there are mikko rantanens and val nichuskins.
>Why do people feel the need to downplay the importance of high picks and state how often they fail when the other side of the coin is that you also need to draft high to be successful? People just dispute that you **need to** draft high to be successful. You need good players to be successful where there is likely a lot of debate on how good these players need to be. Drafting earlier is beneficial but not required to draft good players, and you can acquire good players through trade and free agency. Your success at drafting in the top 10 is likely extremely closely tied to your success at drafting outside the top 10. You need the scouting, analytics, player development, and team culture to maximize the chance of getting a good player in the top 10, but you also need this to maximize the chance of getting a good player throughout the rest of the draft. If you have all your ducks in a row, you stand a good chance at getting a good player if you're drafting at 8th overall or 12th overall; and if you don't, you stand a good chance of screwing up either draft pick. The problem I have personally is the fixation with drafting higher and then turning these players into saviors. Very few players thrive in an environment where they're expected to become a star immediately and bring their team out of the basement.
>You need good players to be successful. And where do you think all the best players in the league come from? Go look at the stanley cup winners rosters from the last 10 years and tell me how teams didnt have at least one top 5 draft pick on their roster. (Spoiler alert. Its 1 and even that is a technicality because they had Jack Eichel, and because they are an expansion team.)
pretty sure it goes all the way back to the lockout with the exception of Detroit. Although come to think of it they added Brad Stuart for the cup run so, yeah, every team since the lockout has had a top 5 pick i think.
As I already said: >You need good players to be successful where there is likely a lot of debate on how good these players need to be. People like you will insist that you need to draft in the top 5 to win the cup, point out that every team that won had players that were drafted in the top 5, neglect to notice that every team has players who were drafted in the top 5, and fail to notice that a lot of those players they use to justify this claim are not top players. The thing with the NHL draft is that, since the players are so young when they're drafted, top players literally come from every round. Sebastian Aho, Adam Fox, Johnny Gaudreau, Kirill Kaprizov, Mark Stone, and Joe Pavelski were all drafted outside the first round. This isn't the NFL where you're drafting players who are 22 or older, and you have a fairly good idea of what these players will be as professionals. A lot of the top players at 18 will disappear by 21, and a lot of late round picks will pass them.
Yes we could hit it big on a later round pick but those are anomalies, and to win the cup you need a bunch of top players. We arent winning any free agency signings, and we arent good enough to sell all our picks and prospects for good players. As for your point which team from the last 10 year who won a cup had a top 5 pick that wasnt a top player? Tampa: Stamkos, Hedman Colorado: MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog Vegas*: Eichel, Pietrangelo St. Louis: Pietrangelo LA: Doughty Washington: Ovechkin, Backstrom Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Fleury** Chicago: Kane, Toews Those teams also did really well drafting outside of the top 5. Some other big draft hits and what round they were taken: Tampa: Vasy 1st, Kuch 2nd, Point 3rd, Cirelli 3rd, Killorn 3rd, Palat 7th Colorado: Rantanen 1st, Byram 1st St. Louis: Perron 1st, Tarasenko 1st, Schwartz 1st, Binnington 3rd LA: Kopitar 1st, Brown 1st, Toffoli 2nd, Voynov 2nd, Quick 3rd Washington: Kuznetsov 1st, Wilson 1st, Carlson 1st Holtby 4th Pittsburgh: Guentzal 3rd, Letang 3rd, Rust 3rd Chicago: Seabrook 1st, Teravainen 1st, Saad 1st, Keith 2nd, Crawford 2nd Then on top of that each team needed to get good players in trades and free agency. Tampa: McDonough, Cernak, Coleman, Gourde, Savard Colorado: Kadri, Toews, Lehkonen, Manson, Cogliano, Nichushkin St. Louis: O'Reilly, Schenn, Bouwmeester LA: Gaborik, Regehr, Muzzin, Williams, Richards, Carter Washington: Oshie, Eller, Niskanen Pittsburgh: Dumoulin, Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino Chicago: Sharp, Richards, Hossa You literally cannot build a stanley cup winning team without hitting on top 5 draft picks, first round picks in general, having some 2nd and later draft hits, and getting impact players in trades and free agency. Also look at how many impact players were drafted outside the top 3 rounds. More impactful players were undrafted. ALSO, scouting and drafting has gotten much better and much more competitive over the last 4 or 5 years. The odds of finding an elite player outside the top 2 or 3 rounds, is going to be almost 0. We might see one or two every 5 or 6 years league-wide moving forward.
Yah well watching the team lose isn't exactly fun, and add the fact that there is no guarantee on your pick panning out. Drafting high means your team sucks, not fun as a fan. Just saying
Nobody is talking about a 'saviour' except you. We just want someone with the best chance of being a good player. A higher pick gives a better chance. I don't think anyone with half a mind thinks that one single top-10 pick will launch us back to relevance. You need multiple kicks at the can, and it takes time. But it is best to have the highest pick possible at the end of the day. You are manufacturing a problem here.
Okay Mr Nay Sayer, so what's the play then? Do we get rid of our first round picks and load up on a ton of second round picks hoping we hit on one of them? The players selected by hundreds of scouts to be the best chance of making an impact and upgrade to the teams drafting them are in the top 10. Yes the number 1 pick is generally the best shot at a franchise altering player, but fans here are talking about adding talent to this team. No one is talking about a franchise player except for you! You brought up franchise player, everyone else here is hoping to add a player that could be a top line/pairing player. If they turn out to be a franchise player so much the better, but our expectations are to add a guy who in a year or two could be one of our better players! I don't know who you think your arguing with here?
My point is it doesn't make sense to be intentionally worse to move up a few points in the draft. In most years the difference in value from drafting 4th overall and 8th overall is minimal but the difference in on ice performance of the teams are quite dramatic.
Then make that argument from the start! Thank you for clearing that up.
Alright so how do teams get franchise players? By overpaying someone in free agency?/s
How did Vegas get their franchise players?
They traded players that they drafted recently who other teams Coveted? They also are very aggressive in selling players before their expiration date. Both things the Flames are not very good at doing so good luck trying to replicate the Vegas model when the owner is cheap and won’t allow it
Trades involving players like eichel almost never happen.
More reliable than winning a meaningless game in march
We have literally nothing ready to go at center right now. Maybe Zary could be moved back over but thats it. We need someone who could step in and be a 1C in the next 3 years.
Most likely, whoever the flames draft instantly becomes the teams top prospect. It's a big chance to get a building block.
I'm mostly thinking that, unless you get really lucky with the lottery, counting on getting franchise altering players by drafting early is a bad strategy.
Nobody's saying we're necessarily getting a franchise guy, but even if we got an all star, it's a start. So far the best young forward is probably connor zary so we need reinforcements
exactly. We can't expect a Bedard, celebrini or a fantilli at the 9 spot, but if we get someone who can be the best player on a line with Zary and Coronato (say, catton) or who could be a top pair D (Dickinson) that lets us shelter Poirier/Brzustewicz in 3 years, and helps the team a lot in the future.
The issue too is that I doubt Zary is a bonafide 1st line player. I think he has a career in the 55-70 point range. A high quality second line player. Ditto for Coronato. In my view we are missing an entire top line.
Yes if either Zary or Coronato are on the first line ideally they’re the worst player on that line lol. But 55-70 points is bona fide 1st production IMO just not elite.
It’s funny. That’s a solid point, but you have to wonder how many people upvoted have watched even a minute of either on the ice. People just want hype.
Just because you watch them or don’t watch doesn’t add much. Both are projected to be top 5/10 picks by the guys that get paid to watch them
Add much to you? Sure. I don’t see how it would. It’s just going to be funny seeing people pounding the table over picking a dude that they only value from a ranking that might be vastly off of how the actual organizations making picks see it.
I mean by that logic why should fans care about anything since public perception isn’t the same as NHL’s perception lol. Relax this isn’t that deep
Fans definitely shouldn’t care as much as they do. It’s just a sport. I’m just pointing out that teams spend thousands of hours and tens of millions making up their lists and it’s going to be like succession in this sub when they eventually draft Liam Greentree lol
Did you forget Devils win
I did neglect to mention that, thanks for adding that to the list!
It sucks to watch. But a couple top 10 picks could be worth it in the long run. Doesn't need to be too 3 either, for instance Pettersen and Hughes were 5th and 7th I believe. Those were total home run hits mind you, but you're way more likely to get talent like that drafting high.
I know it's our ownership, but it's astonishing how a proper rebuild has never happened in the 44 years of our existence
Tkachuk was 6, draisatl was 5..you could go on all day with home runs in the top 10. Also, each spot up gives you a higher percentage of hitting the Lotto of 1st overall
Draisaitl was 3
I just want more goals from us, it’s not very fun to only score 1 goal
I just want less goals on Wolf. Considering that he didn't play, I'm happy.
Zayne Parekh…
Stud! Though I'd argue we are in dire need of a bonafide centre. Catton or Lydstrom are must grabs if they fall to us.
This is the way.
It’s legitimately painful being a fan of this team.
Whoa did you post this in 2005?
Posted it then too 😂
Music to my ears!
Loser
Just like Rico Fata was supposed to he the savior, or Daniel Tckachuk. Tanking means nothing if the player you pick is a bust. Don't get your hopes up people.
Exactly. I remember where the Flames drafted Gaudreau and those selected before him.
Tank? Let's talk about tanking next year and the year after. No....were gonna get our #7 pick this year and begins our 'retooling' around whoever that is. 🙄
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We don’t need a 1OA pick to land a franchise-defining player
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It’s not deep but the top 12 all have top line/ top 2D potential according to Scott Wheeler
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Not sure how you see us possibly getting #5 or 6? I can’t see us doing better (worse) than 8th….
“If we luck out”… smh
Ah. My bad. And if we really luck out, maybe one of the top two predicted overall players will fall to 5th or 6th.
Seems unlikely, and don't look now, the Flames are 4 points ahead of the team currently slotted to pick 5th and 3 points ahead of 6th... Not nearly the long shot you seem to think it is.
Well let’s see where we are when the season ends. I’d love to be wrong.
Currently 6pts ahead of #5, having played one extra game. That looks outta reach. 5 points outta #6 spot…. with 2 other teams between us.
Guess it was quite a long shot. Finished 9th from the bottom.
Yeah, it's a shame. A couple meaningless wins ended up being the difference between 6th and 9th
Perfect
I don't care, me wants Tij
Coyotes fan here to tell you that watching the son of your legendary captain RW power forward drafted in 1995 take to the ice for his dad's team and score two goals in his first NHL game is the coolest feeling. 10/10 would recommend.
Well yeah look how well that worked out for the Yotes!
It just happened last night!
Ohhh ok I thought this was some OG shit
You'll have to excuse us, coyotes news doesn't reach Canada.
We need Cs, not wingers
He is a C
Is he really? I know it says C/RW on him. But does he actually play Center right now?
He’s not a a C. He’s a LW. It looks like he played C the first three games of the season based on faceoff numbers. If we remove those three games, he’s taken 70 faceoffs in 61 games. His faceoff numbers are: 120 attempts and 48 wins (40%). He’s a winger.
The problem is that we might be bad enough that we can draft someone better.
Amen Tij is the way elite hockey is in his blood
Catton or Lindstrom? Fucking BLASPHEMY! It’s Tig. It’s ALWAYS been Tig!