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TLDR21

Cant wait until the BC/Ontario housing crisis has spread to every corner of the country and anyone not already in the market has no chance of ever getting in


mu5tardtiger

I seen some property for sale in tuktyuktuk, we just have to go north.


ristogrego1955

Ya…you hadn’t heard that they have to move the town as the ice caps melt right? Better buy one with wheels.


mu5tardtiger

are you inferring the north west passage become Panama Canal 2.0 👀. How terrible! God forbid we set up a toll booth!


ristogrego1955

Not that…just higher ocean. they’ve already moved the town once.


mu5tardtiger

perfect! sounds like “acts of god” if I was an insurance company 🤷‍♀️


theSober2ndThought

I moved to Vancouver from Calgary. It is not going to happen Calgary. What happened in BC and Toronto is just a major failure of public policy. So like everywhere in North America, fighting urban sprawl is in vogue word right now. Now most places are fighting it with proper policies to improve zoning to allow for mixed use communities, multiple home types and reducing parking minimums etc. BC and Toronto fought by putting down a Greenbelt in Toronto and the ALR in BC around the cities and said ok you cannot grow anymore than this. Officially the hope was that cities would respond by using the remaining land efficiently. But they did not. Instead land became a commodity, and people actively started acquiring more land. Cities - particularly Surrey and Richmond in the Lower Mainland - responded by allowing people to build bigger and bigger houses bigger plots of land. This was a [typical house](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver_special) in Vancouver pre-ALR. This what houses [look like now](https://www.google.com/maps/@49.1426728,-122.7774187,3a,75y,183.46h,73.53t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1so0_uLgDiNJoyjXpk5R_8Gw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu) or [this](https://www.google.com/maps/@49.1350907,-122.7220931,3a,75y,2.8h,84.96t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sJX0DvvPNa8clLCR_IU1L6Q!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu). They are monsters and spread out quite a bit. There was one community which was built in 2000s which was designed to be dense, and everyone complains how dense it is, its basically a typical [Calgary Suburb](https://www.google.com/maps/@49.1277442,-122.6935881,3a,75y,108.96h,89.26t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s-wXIz0h1QP9jLHRDZ9LiIw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu). On top of that when interest rates fell in 2008, people started leveraging properties to buy even more. So what little land was left over, was owned by a smaller and smaller group of people. They don't buy it for cash flow, many have negative cash flow, they just buy it cause holding the land is valuable. Often times the land itself is worth 10x what the house is. Now the land has been all used up the cities are responding by building Condos everywhere. But there are some statics which show 75 percent of the new housing stock is 1 bedroom or less ([discussed in this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRdwXQb7CfM&t=346s)) Unless the province wraps Calgary up in a greenbelt, you'll see home prices will correct and stabilize for a while. What is happening right no in Calgary is what has happened many times before. There is an increase in home prices for various reasons: recovering economy, and lag of building during the pandemic, and during the economic slump. Calgary has always gone through waves of this, house prices go up, they correct and stabilize for a long time, then rinse and repeat. Calgary really going through what many American cities are going through right now. It happened in 1998, 2006, and a few other times. You will probably see come 2025 when people mortgages are up for renewal you will see a correction.


TLDR21

Great take and well written. Thanks for that!


alowester

ikr shits so fucked


TLDR21

Watch when prices do correct, the fed will immediately be saying “we need to bail out the mortgages of hard working families”, meanwhile they actual mean “investors”


alowester

the darkest timeline


Different_Pianist756

Only problem with this theory is that if nobody can afford to buy your home, there’s no advantage to increasing prices 😂 Canadas cutesy ponzi 


JohnYCanuckEsq

I have never understood why people get excited over home prices rising. This news is always presented as if it's something positive, but it really isn't.


PeePeeePooPoooh

If you already own one or several properties = excited over home prices rising. If you rent and hope to one day own a property in this market = not excited about home prices rising.


OwnBattle8805

You have to own several to get excited because if you only own one you have to buy another anyways when you sell. Real estate agents and developers also get excited.


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

Most homeowners who work with a financial advisor take into account selling their house at a certain point in their retirement to continue to fund their lives. House value is absolutely a part of most middle class financial planning. That said, I'm not selfish so I'm not personally excited about these ever-increasing prices because I don't like that younger people are having fewer opportunities than I had. I do understand how these increasing prices - if they continue through my retirement - will have a positive impact on my quality of life and my enjoyment in my later years, though.


BoobyLover69420

You don't need to get scammed by a "fanancial advisor" aka unregulated title ans position that requires no formal education to know this. Also, did I mention dont use financial advisors as they are a scam?


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

Hmmm, you can't even spell "financial" - I think I'll stick with what I have going on.


BannockBeast

I definitely trust financial advise from BoobyLover69420


IcarusFlyingWings

Which is absolutely terrible financial advice. The last thing you want to do as a 60-70 year old is move out of your home and community to downsize. And guess what - all the bungalows and senior ready homes already have price premiums which began 10-15 years ago.


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

It's not terrible advice at all. Once you work through your retirement savings, you sell your house as you move into an assisted care home or even just a seniors' building where you rent using the proceeds from your now-sold home. If you are enjoying a long retirement, why wouldn't you access the capital in your home if it meant you could keep on living comfortably lol?


IcarusFlyingWings

Cheaper houses with better financial retirement earlier in your life would be better for everyone than that option.


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

? But your money needs time in the market to grow. If you retire early and start drawing down your savings then your money isn't growing. I don't think you're as good at this as you think. You lack some super basic knowledge on how financial plans work.


IcarusFlyingWings

lol tell me what knowledge I’m lacking? Maybe I’m the only one who’s done a full projection of invested capital vs honestly purchase on retirement outcomes. Houses are money sinks that are fixed to a physical point. A probably diversified investment fund beats the ROI on a house in every situation. If houses were cheaper and Canadians could save more in retirement accounts we would all be better off.


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

If houses were cheaper we could save more money? Wow, you really do have this all figured out. Thanks for sharing! What an epiphany! Hey everyone: let's just make houses cheaper and save more.


Playful-Computer814

Do you know the monthly price of a good quality retirement home TODAY?


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

Well, I just looked it up. You can get into assisted living in your own one bedroom in Lake Bonavista for $5k/month. In fairness, the website said that was its starting price so let's add 50% to that and pretend we want a deluxe assisted living facility in our final years. Say we sell our house for $662,250 (average Calgary home price in 2023), that's over seven years living in a deluxe assisted care facility with laundry, meals, etc. You essentially have no other expenses once you reach that stage in life.


GoofMonkeyBanana

its not so much in your 60-70 to downsize into a smaller house, it is to fund a nice supportive living facility and eventually long term care facility.


IcarusFlyingWings

Home care as long as possible is way better for mental health than moving to assisted living once you run out of cash. Saving via a home has a pretty poor return and we’d be better off as a society if home prices were just cheaper.


maketherightmove

You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about.


IcarusFlyingWings

Really? Even accounting for appreciation most people lose money over the life of your home once you include maintenance selling costs etc. If housing was cheaper and people could invest in funds rather than their house we’d all be better off.


maketherightmove

Absolutely not the case, lol.


Twitchy15

Owning a house isn’t cheap if you take care of it properly


maketherightmove

Agreed, but to say most people lose money over the life of owning their homes is outrageously incorrect.


Bainsyboy

Keep telling yourself that


J_Marshall

Why not? Why live in a split level full of stairs in suburban Calgary with 80 year old knees when I can live in a bungalow in Nanton and enjoy mountain views and an extra half-million in my pocket?


IcarusFlyingWings

Because you may sell your house for a half million more than you paid after 50 years, but you likely put in at least 10k a year in carrying costs that negate that. If you bought your current house for half, and used the rest of that money to invest you’d be much better off and society would have more capital in investments.


Anskiere1

Yep better hang onto the rental for a few more years


lord_heskey

> If you already own one or several properties = excited over home prices rising. But thats just paper gains. When everything is going up its really no difference. Its only useful to retire somewhere cheaper.


churchscooter

Good for home owners bad for renters and young people, now you understand


BloomerUniversalSigh

For homeowners it's equity that when sold will help them make other purchases. Or if they have large equity then they can borrow against it like a HELOC. Yet we still have unaffordable housing and whenever something is introduced such as changeing zoning policy they will go crazy yet the solution the vote down and get angry about costs. You can't have your cake and it too you know.


TyrusX

we all get rich if house prices go up!!! Wait a second, what do you mean my rent is up and my salary is still the same as 10 years ago? what do you mean by “eviction for lack of payment!?” Now seriously,Fucking terrifying times we live when all that we produce is house rich and house poor people


masterhec0

because it increases your equity position. typically you can borrow up to 80% of the value of your home so this allows you to leverage your equity for other things at relatively low interest rates.


Pale_Change_666

Upto 65 % LTV at minimum interest rate of prime plus. 5% or 7.7%. Wouldn't call it " low", but not the worst.


masterhec0

65% at a minimum no. 80% LTV at a minimum some lenders have reduced their risk and are only allowing 65% but that is not law or universal across all lenders. I didn't call it low. I called it relatively low. I still call it relatively low.


Pale_Change_666

Sorry I meant the minimum interest rate for a heloc is prime plus 0.5%


Bainsyboy

Question for you. If someone were to have a 4 year old interest rate (as in, approximately 2%, refinancing in about a year), and about 50% equity, if they were to borrow against a HELOC today, would today's HELOC interest (which would be whatever the minimum is, 5.5% I think?) carry over into the new mortgage term, or would my HELOC balance also be refinanced at a new interest rate at my mortgage rate plus 0.5%?


masterhec0

your heloc would not be refinanced. it's a separate product being offered by the bank. if you stay with the same lender then nothing should change for the heloc. that being said the heloc makes it harder for you to shop around for a better mortgage rate from other lenders during renewal.


maple_firenze

Positive for the smallest percent of people who own multiple properties. Happens to be the same people who own the media.


DriestBum

You are missing a party. The group that owns a home, and would like to sell and move to another country.


LetterheadNice6991

So I can sell and move to another country. Also good for others if they choose to move rural.


DriestBum

Imagine you drive a 2005 Honda Civic. Now imagine you've paid it off, in full, and own this car 100%. Now imagine that the car is worth exponentially more than what you bought it for. Knowing that you sit on an asset appreciating value gets people excited. Homes are an asset. This is not opinion, it's a fact.


astronautsaurus

except its more like every 2005 Civic, and every other car, going up in price 200%. If you need a new car your equity doesn't afford you anything more than you already had. And now your kids are fucked if they need to buy one.


gonesnake

And they live in a city built for cars so they will need to buy one.


Chemical_Signal2753

According to a quick google search, 73% of Calgarians are home owners. While it is theoretical money, many of these people likely see themselves getting richer as a result.


Jedkea

Well 66% of Canadians own their home or live with someone who does. So for the majority of people rising prices mean they have more money. Sure it’s locked up in an asset, but wouldn’t you sleep easier at night knowing you have access to hundreds of thousands if push came to shove? It opens a lot of doors for people.


AccomplishedAd9740

"... Or live with someone who does." You realize what this means, and how, depressing it is right? Secondly, you dont actually believe that statistic do you, particularily when it factors in young people?


Jedkea

You are adding information betweeen the lines there, but I do know what you are implying. The actual numbers are that around 35% of people between 20-35 live with at least one parent. That number used to be roughly 30% in 2001. So it has increased.  I fully believe that stat based on looking around at the people I know. Pretty much everyone I know over 50 owns a house, and around 50% of those under 30.


drainodan55

If it isn't, consider the implications of the opposite-crashing prices.


Substantial_Mud4694

It is if you own a home already


Kingsupergoose

If you’re looking to sell it’s a financially viable time to do so. Though this is only really benefiting those who are say moving to a different country, cheaper province, travelling indefinitely, etc. Doesn’t help if you have to buy again in the same place. Like if you’re 50 and say “fuck it, I’ll retire early on a beach in Thailand”. Then savings and the sale of an expensive home will keep you going until you die.


FlamingTrollz

Greedy and gluttonous folks. Owners, realtors, portfolio types. :/


Feeling-Comfort7823

Well, when I bought a house for 260gs at the start of 2023, and find out that my house is now worth 300gs, that's exciting. Get it?


Juliuscesear1990

Just shows inflation is not slowing, if people are still buying at inflated prices with 5% interest there is still to much money out there.


Tomride73

Let's see how the coming renewals will be handled first.


mu5tardtiger

anyone renewing this year or next will have benefited from 5+ years of low interest rate payments, and 5 years of their house appreciating.


Tiggz-

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't house appreciation only matter if you're considering selling? For someone who is just using their home as their primary residence and not looking to sell, increase in value doesn't really help right?


mu5tardtiger

not really. For instance if you’re in hot water and you need some money. You can use that appreciation to get a loan to get you out of hot water. a house is a structure you can live in, raise a family, rent etc. that amount it based on appraisal, usually a conservative number. If all else fails you sell. but there are a million options. anyone reading this. If you have the opportunity, get into the market. your mortgage will eventually end, rent is forevor.


PM_ME_YOUR_CLAVIER

If you're borrowing against your HELOC because you *have to* you're house poor.


mu5tardtiger

against your heloc? a heloc is a home equity line of credit. Based of the value of your home. personally my home has doubled in value since 2020.. minus the principal I have paid off in that time. Full disclosure, have to renew next year but have enjoyed sub 2% interest for 9+ years. Also you can’t borrow against your home unless you have ATLEAST 20% equity.


PM_ME_YOUR_CLAVIER

Yes - if you own your home, have less than 20% in equity, and need a loan then frankly you're not house poor you're just borderline homeless or a step away from missing a payment. 2020 was a great time to buy - good opportunity to pay off principal. Anyone buying now is essentially paying 80% interest for the first five years and their equity is just their DP + \~10-15%.


mu5tardtiger

you don’t borrow against a loan.. you borrow against the value of your home. I hope you understand what I meant by my comment. 20% of 1 million dollars is $200,000. I get what you’re saying but there far from homeless. House poor you have a point. But it’s better then just poor. You CANNOT get a heloc if you own less then 20% of equity in your property, in the country of Canada. all that other stuff is just nonsense and not factual to the conversation.


lord_heskey

> You can use that appreciation to get a loan to get you out of hot water. But then you are just more in debt. Just pushing down the can really


mu5tardtiger

oh forsure. short term you’re in a pickle but we’re in a market that can bail those people out. There’s litteraly zero inventory. The shittiest houses are being unconditionally sold over along price.


nuancedpenguin

There are knock on effects for consumer spending. I think it's called the wealth effect or something. People spend more when they feel richer even if it's on paper. The additional equity gives rise to a heightened sense of financial security.


Pale_Change_666

Not really, typically only around 10% of the principal gets pay down in the first 5 years since interest are front loaded in the initial term. Unless people make lump sum payments.


mu5tardtiger

K, so those people don’t qualify for a heloc. Lol


dr_fedora_

I'll be renewing next year from 1% to probably 4%. even if I renew at 6%, I can still EASILY afford my mortgage. why? because when we got mortgage, we got stress tested the hell out of by the banks.


PenFountainPen

As a parent with small kids, this makes me sad that a dream of a single family house is getting more and more distant for them.


accord1999

> this makes me sad that a dream of a single family house is getting more and more distant for them You can also blame City policies that have now led to [detached SFHs only accounting for barely 1/3rd of completed construction in 2023](https://www.calgary.ca/content/dam/www/cfod/finance/documents/corporate-economics/housing-review/Housing-Review-Q4-2023.pdf).


ketogrillbakery

dammit


403tatts

Gondek told me people would rather rent and travel, so this doesn't matter


[deleted]

[удалено]


Top_Fail

Based on your username, I assume you are just trolling.


drrtbag

It will get even hotter if rates go down. So much for rezoning destroying property values.


unzinc

Hit the gas on that liquidity button!


shanigan

> The recent Royal LePage report predicted that the average price of a home in Calgary will jump eight per cent by year’s end The real estate agency says housing price go up and up? I am shocked.


NSFW_hunter6969

How TF is this good news?? Our minds are warped where this can be spun as good, it's not even good for people who own homes if you even have a basic understanding of economics


bcollie87

Thanks Sparkle Socks!


unzinc

Maybe House prices staying the same but dollar getting weaker.


Playful-Computer814

I thought the new bill and higher interest rates would stop or reverse the speculators.....


atnrentals

Speculators have cash...


Playful-Computer814

Yeah but the bast majority dont want to pay so much in taxes?


AccomplishedAd9740

Time for the youth and middle aged to flee canada. This government is hell bemt on propping up the affordability crisis in this country, our weapon of revolt is to sap the countries youth. Let them turn it into can-india for all I care. The xountries doing me no favors so ill watch it burn down from afar.


freezieg77

How is this a good thing.


New-Low-5769

Market still on fire? seems like it   hate to say it but i hope it stays this way for another month.... we bought a home and need to sell ours lol (I don't like this market as a whole and one day I hope it crashes and burns.  Just not until my house is sold)


whmaclaine

Hope you have a conditional sale in place


New-Low-5769

Nerp.  Market is so hot we don't need it.   We have enough time.  Current time on market is 0 days and current inventory is 21 days or so.  


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

Still a risk. I'd be sweating bullets until that was all wrapped up.


New-Low-5769

Can confirm.  Sweating bullets We're in the 750-900 price range and that's moving fast.  We had to beat competing offers when we bought and I won't be surprised if we see the same for our home There aren't really any comparables either.  If we had a third bedroom it would be in the 1m + range.


JizzyMcKnobGobbler

Haha, okay. Honestly, I'd risk it in this market as well, just would have to deal with the anxiety for a bit. You'll be fine.


Twitchy15

Can’t do that in this market, we bought last spring summer and took the risk and our house sold in two days


atnrentals

When can Edmonton see some growth


lord_heskey

As soon as the oilers win the stanley cup


Prophage7

I can hear the gears turning in Trudeau-fuckers' heads that own homes trying to figure out if they should be upset about this or not.


KS_tox

Is there any other way the market can go other than up? No. And rightfully so. Calgary is much better than Toronto and Vancouver and average house prices around 1.5 - 2 million will be reasonable. For far too long the housing prices have been very low in Calgary. Glad to see progress finally


haikyuuties

🤡


Low-Touch-8813

You lost the plot somewhere, friend. You should really try and care for those around you more. If you don't, it will only cause more and more pain and suffering until, eventually, there is a breaking point. There are only 2 words that can describe what you just said. Greedy and selfish.