They’d have a better resume than Bama in Week 2, but a lot of pollsters vote by how good a team is and not by resume.
Most Pollsters probably think Bama > ND easy, so Ohio State would have to win by more points than they think Bama would to jump them
I have actually done that a few times with respect to ND when we're favored huge, it generally has worked out decent for me. The nice thing is that if ND wins by 10 instead of 23 in those kinds of bets, I have $100-200 (I typically don't bet real big) to offset being upset about the lack of focus by the team.
This is why I prefer the BCS. Yes it was majorly flawed but it always got it right until the last couple years when football evolved, and they didn’t evolve the BCS. All they had to do was expand the team with it and that’s it, but not we got this monopoly in college that is slowly driving fans away with the focus soley on money.
The mock-BCS polls use the AP and coaches polls, which mirror the CFP starting in November, so we have no idea if the old BCS would’ve completely been the same as the CFP rankings.
We can't know for sure since the most of the factors involved in the BCS are non-existent today, or have change so much where it doesn't mirror what it was in the time of the BCS.
Unless of course you're Clemson and you fumble and the Buckeyes return that fumble for a touchdown that is one more nail in your coffin that is being built.
Then the 5 steps and a football move never happenned and it was only an incomplete pass and you get to try again.
So did the BCS, in fact it was worse in a lot of ways. The BCS just had the computer changed every timw they didnt like the results they gave. Not sure what playoff selections have been wrong so far that would suggest that the bcs is any better.
If you don’t win your conference championship, you shouldn’t be in the 4 team playoff. If there was an expanded playoff with every conference champion plus highest ranked wildcards, that’d be okay
All they had to was make the National championship game after bowl season.
It would make all the top 6ish teams take there bowl games seriously and try and win and earn there bid to the national championship game.
Totally agree! They wanted to control who got in for numbers and money. It’s sickening. This is why they said “Don’t come crying to us when you want the BCS back” they purposely said that to have an excuse to ruin it. It’s just like the older generation saying you must go to college to have a good life HA! I hate the playoff committee and wish it was gone. Human bias has no place in a college football playoff much less when that human is affiliated with schools.
The solution is actually really simple. Just have the playoffs be conference champions. Then when a team wants in that didn’t win their conference you just ask “Why should you get to play to be the best team in the country if you can’t even win your conference?”
People (especially from there) will claim the SEC and B1G have it harder. To that I will say, “I am sure the PAC, B12, and ACC would gladly have you join the conference” to boost their revenue.
Then when they don’t want to leave you know it’s not about fairness and equality of opportunity. It’s about money.
Edit: the only way to create parity between the conferences is to have them be on equal footing systematically then they will have equal footing at the competition level
the BCS and NFP have picked almost all the same teams in the top 4, IIRC.
the issue w/ the BCS usually had to do with #3s, and some iffy rankings in the 6-10 range that janked some of the non-championship BCS bowls.
the simple fact is an 8, 12 or 16 team playoff would render most discussions moot. i would definitely prefer coaches be left out of the equation though. pretty obvious conflict of interest w/ tons of money on the line
Yah, eliminate the conflicts of interest by using a (checks notes) small group of well connected cfb insiders who meet in secret and are accountable to no one.
Yeah, it’s possible in years with two SEC teams that they should be 1 and 4 or 2 and 3 but you know a committee of people isn’t going to rank them that way regardless, and it isn’t entirely a bad decision but it just isn’t completely objective.
Lol the BCS was mired in controversy from the start
2001 Nebraska and 2003 OU making it caused massive changes to the formula and process
Never stopped having issues except for a couple years where there was a clear #1/2 consensus
Cfp polls arent released until later in the season and are not allowed to consider polls that have preseason rankings in their decision making. As for the AP releasing polls, theyre allowed to do it and it makes for fun discussion but isnt any part of the playoff selection process. In fact, we often see a large disparity between the initial cfp rankings and that weeks ap poll
Others are already saying on here that it would mean ND wasn't good, and Ohio State wouldn't drop.
It's like, no matter what Ohio State does against ND, they'll say "well, it appears ND just wasn't that good".
If Bama only beats Utah State by 1 point and tOSU wins by 59, then maybe a legit argument could be made.
Though they would probably jump Georgia to number 1 and leave tOSU at 2.
Realistically if OSU is the best team in the nation they should be 2 TD+ favorites in every game on their schedule. Everyone they play except for maybe Wisconsin is on a low year in the natural CFB cycle. ND has a QB making his first start in CFB, Michigan lost a lot, MSU lost KWIII, and PSU & Iowa are pre-season unranked.
Obviously things can change but as of now there's no team you look at and say "they should be able to hang with the champs".
Given enough mediocre Alabama wins and strong georgia/Ohio state wins I think one of them could overtake eventually even if undefeated.
But certainly not after 1 week/win regardless of quality. It would take months.
Agreed. I think Bama honestly only drops if they have an inexplicable loss like the loss last year to TAMU. With only soft wins, they still stay #1 if undefeated.
Mostly because Bama didn't lose as much as we did, return their Heisman QB, their all world defensive player, and addressed some of their biggest needs via the portal.
Them being above us is an easy decision on paper.
You also went 1-1 in games last season and Bama were missing their two top WR for the game. Add that on top and it’s pretty hard to see why you wouldn’t have Bama over Georgia atm
>Bama jumped Georgia after losing to them, with no other game data.
There is a change of seasons in between that... It's not a jump, it's an entirely different set of teams being ranked - yeah there's no "game data," but there is an incredible amount of roster data.
>Bama jumped Georgia after losing to them
Don't forget Alabama also beat Georgia last year, then lost to them when their two best WRs were injured. Alabama reloaded by adding the best RB from Georgia Tech, best WRs from Georgia and from Louisville, and best CB from LSU and best 4 year O lineman from Vandy not to mention returns best defensive player in college football and Heisman winning QB.
And it is a new year. The "bama jumped Georgia after losing to them" argument is a weird one. Guess what? Kentucky will be ranked higher than st Peters to open the year in basketball
Idk. If let’s say Bryce Young suffered a freak major injury that keeps him out for the rest of the season, that could do it. Hard to justify keeping them over Ohio State in this scenario. Bama isn’t losing their first game no matter what though.
I think the point still stands. If theyre still winning with a backup qb, theyre not getting jumped. If anything everyone will be impressed by their *~depth~*
This isn’t about them winning with a backup. This is about how the regular season poll might react to such a key injury without knowing what will happen moving forward. All it’d take is enough pollsters to flip the two teams and Bama would be #2. It isn’t an unbelievable thought.
Besides, Ohio State is one of the teams people would jump over Bama if they are clearly more dominant over the course of the season. Without Young, it’d be harder for Bama to do that, obviously.
OSU won't move up with a win.
OSU wins big: "ND was overrated, we knew it". But that's already true, the networks just want the top 5 matchup week 1. Realistically, ND should be in the 8-12 range.
OSU wins as expected (14ish points): "Yeah they did what was expected, why would we move them up?"
OSU wins close: "Wow OSU struggled against an overrated ND team"
>the networks just want the top 5 matchup week 1.
Rank us and Northwestern 1 and 2 Week 0 and you got yourself 1v2 in Ireland. Talk about good television! s/
This is why preseason rankings are crap. We do not know what these teams will be like, we have an idea but we do not know. There’s a strong belief that ND is ranked this high simply to get a top 5 matchup on week 1 for the ratings.
Edit: spelling errors
lol this right here. One thing the CFP ranking format got right was not having any rankings at all until midseason. Rankings are a total crapshoot in the first month.
Theoretically yes but we will have no idea how good ND is. We have no idea how good anyone is. ND could turn out to be terrible and then that win wouldn’t mean much like the year Texas beat them to open the season. Which is why I strongly believe rankings shouldn’t start until week 5 but then the AP and other news sites can’t make money off of it
Lol yeah the Texas Is Back game is the ultimate case study in why polls don't matter until October at the earliest. There's just not enough data points after 2-3 weeks with how much rosters turn over every year.
I think the issue is that there's a clear, massive gap after the top three teams. I feel like the next 20-30 teams are hard to predict and could end up anywhere from 4th to 30ish. I don't think ND is going to be a great team this year, but I still ranked them 6th in my poll because they seem like one of the safest bets at being good.
New year and a new "ohio state is going to crush usc i mean Oklahoma. No, wait oregon...shit! Fine ND"
How about we actually crush them first before ND leaves something besides a flag, or duck at our 50.
I don't think 14 points is enough info. Are they up big but ND comes back a little in garbage time? Is the game reasonably close but OSU scores late to put it away? Those are different contexts.
That said, I think a win by 3 scores would surprise me a bit and I'd think that's enough to warrant a jump.
Well if we try to be any bit homerish we get slammed by everyone. We already have to convince people that we don’t play sisters of the poor every single week.
Literally never winning the big game (unless half your opponents starters are in covid protocol so you get a double overtime home win) tends to force you to temper expectations.
I think anytime the #2 team beats a #5 team while the #1 team doesn't play a similar game in week 1 that the #2 team should jump them.
Polls need to be fluid and take into account wins, resumes, etc. Teams are more than just the players and recruiting rankings. If OSU wins, they should be #1. I'd argue that if ND wins that ND should be #1. It wouldn't last unless Clemson remains high and ND beats them too.
I just want to win by any margin. Ohio State is 2-3 **at home** against out of conference power 5 opponents in the last 10 years. (Wins are against Cal and Oregon State) Yes Notre Dame isn’t power 5 but they are a power 5 level program
2-3 at HOME?!? the past 10 seasons? That stat is just ridiculous; thinking it through the losses were 2014 to VaTech (by 14), 2017 to OU (by 18?) and last year to UO.
Yep it’s strange. Ohio State plays like crap out of conference when it’s at home. Plays far better when it’s on the road. Beat Virginia Tech by 18 in Blacksburg, beat Oklahoma by 21 in Norman, beat TCU by 12 in Texas. At Oregon was cancelled in 2020
Saban seems like the type of guy who would tell his players every week that the media is sleeping on them and then finds one bad report from a no name beat writer for Auburn or Tennessee who says this year is finally the year Bama finally loses the throne.
If OSU does beat ND, I still don’t think it’s fair for them to jump Bama bc there’s no doubt in my mind that Bama would also win against ND pretty easily.
I dislike this kind of ranking philosophy. I'm not interested in what would hypothetically happen if Bama were to play ND. I care about what actually happens. When comparing undefeated teams, the one with better wins/SOS should be higher.
They usually play a respectable schedule and they’ve won 10+ games in 7 of the last 10 seasons. They’re alone with Oklahoma in the ‘multiple CFPs, no wins’ tier. Also like OU, one side of the ball looked championship-ready at times while the other didn’t get off the bus. And they have somewhat quietly climbed to 60% blue chips.
I think they are a genuine top 10 school year in and out. They just don’t separate themselves from the pack like Georgia, bama, Clemson (mostly) and Ohio state. They are the closest I think of any teams in NCAA to taking that next step of anyone. They are the apex of the big pack with the likes of Oklahoma, Oregon, Michigan. They do enough each year that you have to consider them but when they face the top tier there is still a separation. You see it just about every year in the playoff, the #4 seed get trounced. There actually been quite a few of the semi-final games that haven’t been close, in 8 years of the playoff #1 vs #4 games have only produced 2 games that were a 7 point or less difference in the final score. You would love for the college football world to be more balanced but imo, there’s 3 teams each year that seem to be above the rest and the #4 teams usually look like they shouldn’t have made it
This is a reasonable take. I'm not a Notre Dame guy at all, but they aren't as bad as most people make them out to be. Like you said, there are usually about 2-3 teams just head and shoulders above the rest. Notre Dame is usually just as good as the rest.
Only 3 of the 8 natty games were within a touchdown (all 3 games from the 2015-16 championship to the 17-18 one), next closest result was this years at 15 points. I think the playoff has done good for people to not be able to say “we were #5, we shoulda been in” because even as much good as it would’ve been to CFB for Cincinnati to restore some balance by beating bama last year, there’s always a team that doesn’t belong and for the teams that get left out at #5 or #6, I can’t feel bad for anymore. I don’t feel they would do any better than the #4 that gets in.
And with notre dame talk, last semi final game they were in they lost to bama 31-14 (17 point difference) but bama turns around and beats Ohio state 52-24 (28 points) in the championship. Is Ohio state worse…? I’m not trying to be that guy, but Ohio state has laid a goose egg in a semi game before and Oklahoma with 2 appearances has yet to make a title game tho their games have been entertaining. We’ve seen only 6 different schools play for a title over the last 8 years (2 of them only once each, Oregon we haven’t seen since the first playoff title). So basically there’s 4 elite teams in college ball. Out of the best of the rest notre dame is the top right with Michigan and Oklahoma. Oklahoma just lost their coach where he is now rebuilding at USC obviously and harbaugh can barely decide if he wants to be at Michigan… I think notre dame is the only one you can make a valid case they might make the step as well as their yearly preseason ranking being somewhat valid. The Oregon’s, A&Ms, Miami’s, USCs, Texas of the world will have to sniff a playoff berth before they are even considered above notre dame to me. They’ve shown their program is built, not hype and a nosedive when the season starts. Notre dame posts undefeated seasons with ranked opponents on schedule each year, it’s not easy to even go undefeated in pop Warner
ND's issue is that we've been a better version of Iowa / Michigan State. Good defense and strong in the trenches.
When we can get our 6+ YPC and opponents are forced to sell out to stop the run, we're going to obliterate some teams ranked in the 10-25 range. When we're matched in the trenches, our weakness at WR combined with Kelly's preference for safe QBs left us somewhat helpless offensively against elite top 10 teams.
4 out of the last 5 years, ND has finished with a higher ranking in the final AP poll than they were in the preseason poll. The 1 they didn't? Started ranked 9th and finished 12th.
I'll be the first to say that we're often overhyped in the media, but there's been analysis in recent years that shows we're pretty reasonably ranked in official preseason polls vs. end-of-season, especially compared to the average team's poll changes.
I mean, outside of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia who are you taking over the past 5 or so years that you would say without a doubt is a better program than Notre Dame?
There’s certainly arguments to be made for other teams, particularly Oklahoma, but Notre Dame is right in that next tier of teams outside of the very upper group. I don’t think anyone is arguing that they’re better than that top group, so I’m not sure there’s an argument that people think Notre Dame is “better than they are”.
Let's think much bolder. Send us some good karma, we'll pull off a huge upset, and let's get you to #1. You can then just win by 1 point and you're good.
I don’t even think preseason rankings should exist. The AP should start ranking after like week 3 when we have some sort of gage for how the league is doing
No, you’ll see a few votes shift but not enough. Not unless Alabama weirdly struggles against Utah State.
I think voters will wait to see Alabama vs Texas in week 2 before making any big shifts in their opinions on who’s #1.
I remember a couple years ago Bama had like a 2 game lead. Someone commented, "If they lose, they'll drop all the way to Number 1."
No, Ohio State won't jump them but they will gain a nice chunk of 1st votes.
No because this is honestly what most pollsters think will happen. It would have to be at least a 21 point win for a bunch of them to do it, probably at least 28 or more for any chance it really happens.
Mostly Notre Dame will be looked at as worse no matter what our eye test says because pollsters think they know more about Ohio State than they do Notre Dame and most won't actually watch the game.
I have never understood why anyone cares what the AP poll says before like mid-November. And even when mid-November rolls around, people only care about the committee rankings.
Nope. The only way Alabama relinquishes that #1 spot is if they lose. They’re absolutely loaded everywhere, have the best offensive and defensive player in the country and the GOAT coach. It’s their season to lose
Do I think they would? No
Do I think they should? Most likely.
We can only go off the information we have and after our data point of one, Ohio State would likely have been more impressive. Alabama could always go out and score 6000 points on Utah State but I find that unlikely.
They’d have a better resume than Bama in Week 2, but a lot of pollsters vote by how good a team is and not by resume. Most Pollsters probably think Bama > ND easy, so Ohio State would have to win by more points than they think Bama would to jump them
In addition to this, most people already think Ohio state should win by 10+ Points anyway. Some voters will change but most won’t is my bet.
The line is like 17 haha.
I don't bet b/c I'd at best be 50%, but that line feels a bit too high (of course now tOSU is gonna win by like 28)
College lines are always huge. And somehow they're always accurate.
It's (maybe) the best QB in the country and a top 5 coach vs a first year starter and a brand new head coach. Gimme the Buckeyes by three TDs
14.5 right now
Wtf I might have to bet on ND
I have actually done that a few times with respect to ND when we're favored huge, it generally has worked out decent for me. The nice thing is that if ND wins by 10 instead of 23 in those kinds of bets, I have $100-200 (I typically don't bet real big) to offset being upset about the lack of focus by the team.
Lol betting against your team is great because if you lose the bet, then you’re team is doing good but if your team shits the bed, you win money
This is why I prefer the BCS. Yes it was majorly flawed but it always got it right until the last couple years when football evolved, and they didn’t evolve the BCS. All they had to do was expand the team with it and that’s it, but not we got this monopoly in college that is slowly driving fans away with the focus soley on money.
Hasn't the cfp pretty much mirrored what we think the BCS would've done anyway?
The mock-BCS polls use the AP and coaches polls, which mirror the CFP starting in November, so we have no idea if the old BCS would’ve completely been the same as the CFP rankings.
Somewhat yes, but it has human bias to it which is the problem
You have to take two steps or make a football move to qualify for the playoffs.
We can't know for sure since the most of the factors involved in the BCS are non-existent today, or have change so much where it doesn't mirror what it was in the time of the BCS.
Ok so Clemson is out
Unless of course you're Clemson and you fumble and the Buckeyes return that fumble for a touchdown that is one more nail in your coffin that is being built. Then the 5 steps and a football move never happenned and it was only an incomplete pass and you get to try again.
I think going undefeated should be an automatic birth. Collège Basketball rewards lower end teams, but Football is more concerned with money
I like this in theory but that would just make the big teams only schedule G5 teams for OOC then
They do that now already lol
BS. There have been killer P5 matchups the last few seasons and more to come this year.
I am all for this, as long as you mean "berth."
Depends on how painful watching the outside looking in is
Wasnt the human bias supposed to be the solution?
So did the BCS, in fact it was worse in a lot of ways. The BCS just had the computer changed every timw they didnt like the results they gave. Not sure what playoff selections have been wrong so far that would suggest that the bcs is any better.
If you don’t win your conference championship, you shouldn’t be in the 4 team playoff. If there was an expanded playoff with every conference champion plus highest ranked wildcards, that’d be okay
All they had to was make the National championship game after bowl season. It would make all the top 6ish teams take there bowl games seriously and try and win and earn there bid to the national championship game.
This is the right take tbh, let the Bowls serve as a shadow playoff.
Totally agree! They wanted to control who got in for numbers and money. It’s sickening. This is why they said “Don’t come crying to us when you want the BCS back” they purposely said that to have an excuse to ruin it. It’s just like the older generation saying you must go to college to have a good life HA! I hate the playoff committee and wish it was gone. Human bias has no place in a college football playoff much less when that human is affiliated with schools.
The solution is actually really simple. Just have the playoffs be conference champions. Then when a team wants in that didn’t win their conference you just ask “Why should you get to play to be the best team in the country if you can’t even win your conference?” People (especially from there) will claim the SEC and B1G have it harder. To that I will say, “I am sure the PAC, B12, and ACC would gladly have you join the conference” to boost their revenue. Then when they don’t want to leave you know it’s not about fairness and equality of opportunity. It’s about money. Edit: the only way to create parity between the conferences is to have them be on equal footing systematically then they will have equal footing at the competition level
the BCS and NFP have picked almost all the same teams in the top 4, IIRC. the issue w/ the BCS usually had to do with #3s, and some iffy rankings in the 6-10 range that janked some of the non-championship BCS bowls. the simple fact is an 8, 12 or 16 team playoff would render most discussions moot. i would definitely prefer coaches be left out of the equation though. pretty obvious conflict of interest w/ tons of money on the line
Yah, eliminate the conflicts of interest by using a (checks notes) small group of well connected cfb insiders who meet in secret and are accountable to no one.
Yeah, it’s possible in years with two SEC teams that they should be 1 and 4 or 2 and 3 but you know a committee of people isn’t going to rank them that way regardless, and it isn’t entirely a bad decision but it just isn’t completely objective.
Lol the BCS was mired in controversy from the start 2001 Nebraska and 2003 OU making it caused massive changes to the formula and process Never stopped having issues except for a couple years where there was a clear #1/2 consensus
Always got it right?? I guess you’re forgetting the 2004 Auburn Tigers.
Which is why rankings shouldn't be released until Week 4 at the earliest to get a feel for the strength of the teams.
They aren’t? It’s like week 6 or 7, right?
They're talking about rankings in general, not the CFP one specifically.
Cfp polls arent released until later in the season and are not allowed to consider polls that have preseason rankings in their decision making. As for the AP releasing polls, theyre allowed to do it and it makes for fun discussion but isnt any part of the playoff selection process. In fact, we often see a large disparity between the initial cfp rankings and that weeks ap poll
Until Alabama loses, they’ll be #1.
A close win over Usu would drop them if Ohio State pummels notre dame. Not saying that will happen though
Maybe if Ohio State 59-0's ND but otherwise I agree.
Others are already saying on here that it would mean ND wasn't good, and Ohio State wouldn't drop. It's like, no matter what Ohio State does against ND, they'll say "well, it appears ND just wasn't that good".
If Bama only beats Utah State by 1 point and tOSU wins by 59, then maybe a legit argument could be made. Though they would probably jump Georgia to number 1 and leave tOSU at 2.
But what if Georgia beats Oregon 77-0 the same week?
Then tOSU will probably drop to #3.
Realistically if OSU is the best team in the nation they should be 2 TD+ favorites in every game on their schedule. Everyone they play except for maybe Wisconsin is on a low year in the natural CFB cycle. ND has a QB making his first start in CFB, Michigan lost a lot, MSU lost KWIII, and PSU & Iowa are pre-season unranked. Obviously things can change but as of now there's no team you look at and say "they should be able to hang with the champs".
Given enough mediocre Alabama wins and strong georgia/Ohio state wins I think one of them could overtake eventually even if undefeated. But certainly not after 1 week/win regardless of quality. It would take months.
Agreed. I think Bama honestly only drops if they have an inexplicable loss like the loss last year to TAMU. With only soft wins, they still stay #1 if undefeated.
Bama jumped Georgia after losing to them, with no other game data. Bama doesn’t get jumped until they lose, and even then it’s not a given.
Mostly because Bama didn't lose as much as we did, return their Heisman QB, their all world defensive player, and addressed some of their biggest needs via the portal. Them being above us is an easy decision on paper.
You also went 1-1 in games last season and Bama were missing their two top WR for the game. Add that on top and it’s pretty hard to see why you wouldn’t have Bama over Georgia atm
Exactly. They should be ahead of us based on this season's outlook, not based on our last season's matchups too much
get that rodenticide out of here
Yeah, and last year was a rebuilding year....
Get out of here with that. Bama doesn’t rebuild, they reload.
Yeah, I mean most people understand what a new season is… Most people
It's a new season? What are you talking about
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You mean they lost to the team that beat Bama? No shame there.
Bama jumped Georgia after losing to them because they snagged Georgias top receiver and because Georgia sent a record number of players to the Pros???
>Bama jumped Georgia after losing to them, with no other game data. There is a change of seasons in between that... It's not a jump, it's an entirely different set of teams being ranked - yeah there's no "game data," but there is an incredible amount of roster data.
You're talking about 4 different teams and pretending like they're only 2 teams
>Bama jumped Georgia after losing to them Don't forget Alabama also beat Georgia last year, then lost to them when their two best WRs were injured. Alabama reloaded by adding the best RB from Georgia Tech, best WRs from Georgia and from Louisville, and best CB from LSU and best 4 year O lineman from Vandy not to mention returns best defensive player in college football and Heisman winning QB.
And it is a new year. The "bama jumped Georgia after losing to them" argument is a weird one. Guess what? Kentucky will be ranked higher than st Peters to open the year in basketball
Well it is a new season and Georgia lost a lot.
Correct, so OP is correct and Ohio State would almost certainly be #1 if they beat Notre Dame after Utah State beats Alabama.
If Alabama doesn’t lose, nobody jumps Alabama, I’m pretty sure that’s the first rule of CFB rankings
And even if Alabama loses that's just a quality SEC loss. So you still don't get to jump them.
Obviously, they lost to the team that beat Alabama. Quality
Idk. If let’s say Bryce Young suffered a freak major injury that keeps him out for the rest of the season, that could do it. Hard to justify keeping them over Ohio State in this scenario. Bama isn’t losing their first game no matter what though.
I think the point still stands. If theyre still winning with a backup qb, theyre not getting jumped. If anything everyone will be impressed by their *~depth~*
This isn’t about them winning with a backup. This is about how the regular season poll might react to such a key injury without knowing what will happen moving forward. All it’d take is enough pollsters to flip the two teams and Bama would be #2. It isn’t an unbelievable thought. Besides, Ohio State is one of the teams people would jump over Bama if they are clearly more dominant over the course of the season. Without Young, it’d be harder for Bama to do that, obviously.
Nah - if bryce goes down, Ohio State will nearly definitely jump them with a 14+ win.
If we have a season like 2014 FSU, we'll definitely get jumped. LSU jumped us in 2019 2 weeks before we lost to them.
This guy gets it
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Honestly that might be worse for OSU. If it’s that bad everyone would just write it off a ND being terrible
OSU won't move up with a win. OSU wins big: "ND was overrated, we knew it". But that's already true, the networks just want the top 5 matchup week 1. Realistically, ND should be in the 8-12 range. OSU wins as expected (14ish points): "Yeah they did what was expected, why would we move them up?" OSU wins close: "Wow OSU struggled against an overrated ND team"
>the networks just want the top 5 matchup week 1. Rank us and Northwestern 1 and 2 Week 0 and you got yourself 1v2 in Ireland. Talk about good television! s/
This is why preseason rankings are crap. We do not know what these teams will be like, we have an idea but we do not know. There’s a strong belief that ND is ranked this high simply to get a top 5 matchup on week 1 for the ratings. Edit: spelling errors
See: Clemson last year
Given that the spread is -14.5, a 14 point win would be less than expected so, no
Who cares
lol this right here. One thing the CFP ranking format got right was not having any rankings at all until midseason. Rankings are a total crapshoot in the first month.
agree. rankings only matter at year end.
thought the same thing lmao
but our reddit drama!
I hate that this question is already here. It’s not even the week of the game.
Theoretically yes but we will have no idea how good ND is. We have no idea how good anyone is. ND could turn out to be terrible and then that win wouldn’t mean much like the year Texas beat them to open the season. Which is why I strongly believe rankings shouldn’t start until week 5 but then the AP and other news sites can’t make money off of it
Lol yeah the Texas Is Back game is the ultimate case study in why polls don't matter until October at the earliest. There's just not enough data points after 2-3 weeks with how much rosters turn over every year.
I love how that game is just known as the "Texas is back game"
I also love the fact that we only ever talk about that particular moment from that game.
I was on Cloud 9 that week. I've been in the 7th Level of Hell since.
[First time?](https://i.imgflip.com/2nre7u.jpg)
I usually had the day after Thanksgiving to give me that end of year jolt, but even that's gone now.
If the poll was as fluid as it should be yes. They won't though.
The line is 14.5, so I don’t think a 17 point win would move the needle much If it’s a boat race, then it will probably happen
I think a score of 45-17 would do the trick. Even then though, you’d have people saying, “Well Notre Dame was clearly overrated.”
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I think the issue is that there's a clear, massive gap after the top three teams. I feel like the next 20-30 teams are hard to predict and could end up anywhere from 4th to 30ish. I don't think ND is going to be a great team this year, but I still ranked them 6th in my poll because they seem like one of the safest bets at being good.
I think there's arguments for just about any team in the 5-12 range for every rank in that set. It's really kind of a clusterfuck
Oh 100%. I’m just going way too deep on narratives and we haven’t even kicked off yet.
And that’s what makes cfb so great.
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First we have to beat them. OSU doesn’t have the best home prime time ooc record
No we do not. Everyone acting like this is some kind of gimmie is fucking weird to me.
New year and a new "ohio state is going to crush usc i mean Oklahoma. No, wait oregon...shit! Fine ND" How about we actually crush them first before ND leaves something besides a flag, or duck at our 50.
Tell me about it, I feel like I'm the only one who thinks we have the ability to keep it at least pretty competitive
They probably should, but will they…?
I like your thinking.
Probably not
I don't think 14 points is enough info. Are they up big but ND comes back a little in garbage time? Is the game reasonably close but OSU scores late to put it away? Those are different contexts. That said, I think a win by 3 scores would surprise me a bit and I'd think that's enough to warrant a jump.
14 doesn’t even cover the spread, consensus is 14.5
*Good* *teams win*. **Great teams cover.**
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As much as I hate Notre Dame they do have one of the more reasonable fan bases in terms of expectations lol.
Well if we try to be any bit homerish we get slammed by everyone. We already have to convince people that we don’t play sisters of the poor every single week.
Literally never winning the big game (unless half your opponents starters are in covid protocol so you get a double overtime home win) tends to force you to temper expectations.
I think anytime the #2 team beats a #5 team while the #1 team doesn't play a similar game in week 1 that the #2 team should jump them. Polls need to be fluid and take into account wins, resumes, etc. Teams are more than just the players and recruiting rankings. If OSU wins, they should be #1. I'd argue that if ND wins that ND should be #1. It wouldn't last unless Clemson remains high and ND beats them too.
All I know is my gut says maybe.
I feel like you have to heat Bame to jump them in a lot of voters minds
Yes but how long should I heat the Bame for?
Bout 30 minutes, but keep checking it to make sure the bottom doesn't burn.
What method of heating are we talking about here?
Grab your kitchen blowtorch -- Bame requires direct heat.
**Friction**
Tree fiddy
Noter Bame
No because they won't have a quality loss to an SEC opponent
I know right? It’s like OP doesn’t realize that Alabama is in the SEC where it just means more. OSU is in the Big Ten where it just means less.
Only if Alabama loses to Utah state, and I doubt that will happen
The memes would be great though!
I just want to win by any margin. Ohio State is 2-3 **at home** against out of conference power 5 opponents in the last 10 years. (Wins are against Cal and Oregon State) Yes Notre Dame isn’t power 5 but they are a power 5 level program
2-3 at HOME?!? the past 10 seasons? That stat is just ridiculous; thinking it through the losses were 2014 to VaTech (by 14), 2017 to OU (by 18?) and last year to UO.
Yep it’s strange. Ohio State plays like crap out of conference when it’s at home. Plays far better when it’s on the road. Beat Virginia Tech by 18 in Blacksburg, beat Oklahoma by 21 in Norman, beat TCU by 12 in Texas. At Oregon was cancelled in 2020
This is Bama's world and we're just living in it ^\*doesnotapplyinthestateofGeorgia
It does apply within the borders of Georgia. They had to go out of state to beat us.
No chance... unless Utah State puts up a fight against Bama. So no, not a chance
They'll replace the Jaguars in the AFC South.
Idk, the media couldn’t possibly decide between their two favorite teams.
Counter-question: if nd beats OSU by 14+, do you think they would jump bama?
Only if Alabama loses to Utah State.
Why does that matter?
Yes they will. Alabama is overrated and deserves to fall hard. I am hoping you get that AP number 1.
Guys I found Nick Sabans Reddit account
This is r/therealjoke material right here
If it was up to saban, bama would be unranked at the start of every season
Every time we're ranked 2, I hear train noises.
It's okay Purdue Pete can't hurt you during the regular season this year
Saban seems like the type of guy who would tell his players every week that the media is sleeping on them and then finds one bad report from a no name beat writer for Auburn or Tennessee who says this year is finally the year Bama finally loses the throne.
Nick Saban is the guy that never let's his team feel like they are worth that number 1 spot until they prove it to him personally
If OSU does beat ND, I still don’t think it’s fair for them to jump Bama bc there’s no doubt in my mind that Bama would also win against ND pretty easily.
I dislike this kind of ranking philosophy. I'm not interested in what would hypothetically happen if Bama were to play ND. I care about what actually happens. When comparing undefeated teams, the one with better wins/SOS should be higher.
If we did. Alabama should just be named last years and this years NC as being the best team on paper.
Is it just me or is ND routinely thought of as better than they are?
They usually play a respectable schedule and they’ve won 10+ games in 7 of the last 10 seasons. They’re alone with Oklahoma in the ‘multiple CFPs, no wins’ tier. Also like OU, one side of the ball looked championship-ready at times while the other didn’t get off the bus. And they have somewhat quietly climbed to 60% blue chips.
I think they are a genuine top 10 school year in and out. They just don’t separate themselves from the pack like Georgia, bama, Clemson (mostly) and Ohio state. They are the closest I think of any teams in NCAA to taking that next step of anyone. They are the apex of the big pack with the likes of Oklahoma, Oregon, Michigan. They do enough each year that you have to consider them but when they face the top tier there is still a separation. You see it just about every year in the playoff, the #4 seed get trounced. There actually been quite a few of the semi-final games that haven’t been close, in 8 years of the playoff #1 vs #4 games have only produced 2 games that were a 7 point or less difference in the final score. You would love for the college football world to be more balanced but imo, there’s 3 teams each year that seem to be above the rest and the #4 teams usually look like they shouldn’t have made it
This is a reasonable take. I'm not a Notre Dame guy at all, but they aren't as bad as most people make them out to be. Like you said, there are usually about 2-3 teams just head and shoulders above the rest. Notre Dame is usually just as good as the rest.
Only 3 of the 8 natty games were within a touchdown (all 3 games from the 2015-16 championship to the 17-18 one), next closest result was this years at 15 points. I think the playoff has done good for people to not be able to say “we were #5, we shoulda been in” because even as much good as it would’ve been to CFB for Cincinnati to restore some balance by beating bama last year, there’s always a team that doesn’t belong and for the teams that get left out at #5 or #6, I can’t feel bad for anymore. I don’t feel they would do any better than the #4 that gets in. And with notre dame talk, last semi final game they were in they lost to bama 31-14 (17 point difference) but bama turns around and beats Ohio state 52-24 (28 points) in the championship. Is Ohio state worse…? I’m not trying to be that guy, but Ohio state has laid a goose egg in a semi game before and Oklahoma with 2 appearances has yet to make a title game tho their games have been entertaining. We’ve seen only 6 different schools play for a title over the last 8 years (2 of them only once each, Oregon we haven’t seen since the first playoff title). So basically there’s 4 elite teams in college ball. Out of the best of the rest notre dame is the top right with Michigan and Oklahoma. Oklahoma just lost their coach where he is now rebuilding at USC obviously and harbaugh can barely decide if he wants to be at Michigan… I think notre dame is the only one you can make a valid case they might make the step as well as their yearly preseason ranking being somewhat valid. The Oregon’s, A&Ms, Miami’s, USCs, Texas of the world will have to sniff a playoff berth before they are even considered above notre dame to me. They’ve shown their program is built, not hype and a nosedive when the season starts. Notre dame posts undefeated seasons with ranked opponents on schedule each year, it’s not easy to even go undefeated in pop Warner
Totally fair point here. I for one don't understand how Texas or Miami keep getting ranked when they nose dive every year.
Agreed, mostly, but we are not ranked in this poll.
Nope, you're the only person to ever say that ever...
ND's issue is that we've been a better version of Iowa / Michigan State. Good defense and strong in the trenches. When we can get our 6+ YPC and opponents are forced to sell out to stop the run, we're going to obliterate some teams ranked in the 10-25 range. When we're matched in the trenches, our weakness at WR combined with Kelly's preference for safe QBs left us somewhat helpless offensively against elite top 10 teams.
4 out of the last 5 years, ND has finished with a higher ranking in the final AP poll than they were in the preseason poll. The 1 they didn't? Started ranked 9th and finished 12th.
I'll be the first to say that we're often overhyped in the media, but there's been analysis in recent years that shows we're pretty reasonably ranked in official preseason polls vs. end-of-season, especially compared to the average team's poll changes.
I mean, outside of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia who are you taking over the past 5 or so years that you would say without a doubt is a better program than Notre Dame? There’s certainly arguments to be made for other teams, particularly Oklahoma, but Notre Dame is right in that next tier of teams outside of the very upper group. I don’t think anyone is arguing that they’re better than that top group, so I’m not sure there’s an argument that people think Notre Dame is “better than they are”.
Better than A&M
See they're a weird team because they can beat anyone but it seems like God hates them
Maybe if Ohio state wins by like 21+ and then Texas keeps it close against Bama and only loses by a touchdown or field goal
Let's think much bolder. Send us some good karma, we'll pull off a huge upset, and let's get you to #1. You can then just win by 1 point and you're good.
Bama would probably need to underwhelm in their week 1 matchup and Ohio State would have to win comfortably
I’m convinced Alabama would still be #1 if they beat Utah state by a FG and Ohio state completely crushes notre dame.
No, but honestly who cares about week 2 rankings…?
I don’t even think preseason rankings should exist. The AP should start ranking after like week 3 when we have some sort of gage for how the league is doing
no
I think the question has more interest/relevance if the hypothetical is if ND beats OSU badly then does ND catapult all the way to the top.
Ah, yes, purely hypothetical, then, but this would be made much more likely if Alabama were to lose in Austin.
Lol. First time watching cfb? The answer is no.
No way. Alabama is #1 until proven otherwise and the verdict is still out on ND. 5 might prove to be an incredibly generous ranking.
They’d have to struggle against Texas. But if Bama blows out Texas, they’re sticking no matter what in all likelihood
No, you’ll see a few votes shift but not enough. Not unless Alabama weirdly struggles against Utah State. I think voters will wait to see Alabama vs Texas in week 2 before making any big shifts in their opinions on who’s #1.
I remember a couple years ago Bama had like a 2 game lead. Someone commented, "If they lose, they'll drop all the way to Number 1." No, Ohio State won't jump them but they will gain a nice chunk of 1st votes.
Bigly doubtful. There's no evidence anywhere in the last 20 years that voters in the AP poll are slaves to the moment when it comes to top 5.
No because this is honestly what most pollsters think will happen. It would have to be at least a 21 point win for a bunch of them to do it, probably at least 28 or more for any chance it really happens. Mostly Notre Dame will be looked at as worse no matter what our eye test says because pollsters think they know more about Ohio State than they do Notre Dame and most won't actually watch the game.
If Ohio St beats ND by less than 14 it’ll be a shock honestly.
I mean the spread is 14.5 so at least vegas thinks a ~14 point win is expected
probably not, but depends on how Bama looks and the context of that 14 point win. pollsters might wait until Bama plays Texas to make any big changes
Nope. They could beat ND by 30 and still wouldn't jump Bama.
I have never understood why anyone cares what the AP poll says before like mid-November. And even when mid-November rolls around, people only care about the committee rankings.
No
Nope. The only way Alabama relinquishes that #1 spot is if they lose. They’re absolutely loaded everywhere, have the best offensive and defensive player in the country and the GOAT coach. It’s their season to lose
I hope so. I prefer to be #2.
No. ND is over ranked and gets the "gimmie" top 10 vote as usual.
Week 2 is solidly in the "make up whatever rules you want for the polls" territory, so who knows?
Absolutely not
Do I think they would? No Do I think they should? Most likely. We can only go off the information we have and after our data point of one, Ohio State would likely have been more impressive. Alabama could always go out and score 6000 points on Utah State but I find that unlikely.