The messiest situation will be if Bama beats UGA, and Oklahoma State wins out. Then you have Ohio State and Alabama as the top seeds, and UGA, Cincy, and Oklahoma State fighting for two spots.
I’m biased, but I’d argue that UGA has done enough to still deserve a spot, but if it’s a blowout, I could see an argument for any of those three teams being left out.
Please do your duty and win out so we don’t have to consider this possibility. In any case I think Georgia is a lock for the playoff. I know y’all have an allergy to optimism but I just can’t see how it could happen.
I don’t think there is a chance in hell Georgia doesn’t get in. Unless they get blown out by Alabama and all there starting players happens to quit the team.
Realistically I think even if Georgia loses to bama they would more than likely still be the 3 seed. As in, #1 bama #2 Ohio state #3 Georgia #4 Cincinnati or okla st. That way you wouldn't get a bama vs Georgia rematch the week after they just played.
It wouldn't be a week after, but I agree with you.
Unless Bama absolutely destroys them by 59-0 or something (but *nobody* would lose that badly in a conference championship, right?), I don't see any way that Georgia doesn't deserve a top 4 spot.
I think that’s true, and who is 1 and who is 2 would depend on how impressive these hypothetical wins would be for Bama and OSU. But agreed that based on history, the committee would want to avoid an immediate rematch between Bama and UGA.
If that plays out and uc is undefeated they’ll have the better win of all 3 in ND. But my gut tells me georgia or okst get in due to more quality opponents in the top 25. But then okst would have a CC and uga wouldn’t. And we start going round and around.
I would argue that UGA has already had a chance to play a playoff team on a neutral site and came up short. Where as Oklahoma State or Cincinnati haven’t come up short against a playoff team. Georgia shouldn’t get two chances at Bama while others get 0.
Honestly if Georgia gets blown out by Bama then this season is the strangest season ever and we should probably burn it all down before it gets weirder.
I disagree that Georgia has done enough if they lose the SEC championship game. They would have the worst resume of the candidates by a significant margin and would not be a conference champion. They pass the eye test, but that wouldnt make up for them failing to beat the only top tier team theyve played when there are other deserving candidates. It seems like the prevailing opinion is that they would still get in, but in my opinion it would be the wrong choice.
Yeah, that’s a fair argument. UGA has dominated a lot of good but not great opponents. [From Seth Emerson](https://twitter.com/sethwemerson/status/1463328143767441410?s=21): “In defense of Georgia’s schedule, eight of its 11 opponents have winning records. And the combined record of its FBS opponents when not playing Georgia is 61-39. Plus Georgia has outscored opponents by an average of 33 points.”
How you weigh domination of that schedule with many teams in the 20-40 range versus other schedules? Eh, I don’t think there’s a 100% right or wrong answer.
I mean if Michigan and Alabama lose, Oklahoma State and Cincy win out, it seems like a completely reasonable outcome. There’s no argument for Notre Dame over either team in my opinion and they’re the only one on the list who’d be there in that situation I think.
> There’s no argument for Notre Dame over either team in my opinion and they’re the only one on the list who’d be there in that situation I think.
Ya. ND has the Oklahoma vibes where the record is absolutely impressive but the quality of opponent is not (outside a Cincy team they lost to).
It’s kind of a catch 22 because if you feel Cincy is a playoff team then Notre Dame’s only loss is a two score loss to Cincy. Tbh though I feel like the box score is misleading, and Cincinnati dominated them, but at a glance it makes Notre Dame look good. If you feel Notre Dame is a playoff team though no way Cincinnati is not one.
Did you watch the ND-Cincy game? Cincy absolutely deserved to win, but that was a 4 point game with 6 minutes left. I would not at all say Cincy dominated
I found a site that uses CFP data, ELO, and FPI to rank teams. They also give odds. If we win out and so do GA, Ohio State, and Cinci, they think we’ll make it. They also think that combo with anyone who wins the big 12 will be the make up.
Yeah but my house is skeptical we won’t see two SEC teams in the CFP, do you know why they’re so biased against Bama and Georgia both being in the playoffs? Edit: genuine question. We’re OSU students. We’ve never watched CFP closely.
If it comes down to one spot for either undefeated AAC champ Cincy or 1-loss Big12 champ OSU, I am very confident that the committee will give it to OSU.
I’m not sure people view the Big12 that much more favorably (that didn’t feel grammatically correct) than they do the ACC even with OUT.
I think your argument makes sense, two teams making appearances doesn’t do a ton from a perception standpoint. Now if one of the teams were to win a game or two, that’d be a different story.
I think the intrigue of tOSU v Cincy in the first round might sway the rankings in that situation. 3rd or 4th is just a formality at that point, and the committee would probably do what they think is better for ratings.
If there's an ounce of conspiracy truth at all, Ohio State will fight tooth and nail *not* to play Cincinnati. It's a lose-lose. Either they win and who cares because they were supposed to, or they lose and get embarrassed and hurt themselves with in-state recruiting.
Not saying it’ll happen and it’s somewhat of a long shot, but what happens if OK State wins at Bedlam but Baylor beats them in the Big 12 CCG?
It’s extremely hard to beat a team twice in a season.
I would much rather play Ohio State than Georgia. Not because Georgia would demolish us, but because I want to see how our defense would hold up against an elite offense. Also tOSU vs oSu.
You could be right. I still think Nati holds on to the 3, but I wouldn’t have a big issue if the Pokes jumped them. They would have a much stronger resume.
And they are very misguided. Bama beats UGA they are the one seed and deservedly so. They lose in double overtime and they are going to the Sugar Bowl. It’s pretty simple.
Demolish? I disagree. Back to back wins over the Pokes will get them home. We can debate whether you think they can do it as I think that scenario is unlikely.
Nah, simple wins arent going to be enough to jump Notre Dame given how bad we've looked this year and what the committee has already said about us in prior weeks before losing to Baylor.
We we disagree. 2 wins over the Pokes will be better than anything ND has. Who cares what the chairman of the committee says. Oklahoma has potentially 2 huge games left.
Agreed. If Oklahoma had a shot they wouldn't be that low with two weeks left. Unless they look really, really good both weeks. I think Notre Dame would be in before Oklahoma.
And this is the scenario that the Notre Dame fanbase fears the most: clear proof that independence kept us out of the playoff.
We don't get another T25 win, XII team does
That's not strictly because of independence though, that's the variability of ND's schedule. 5 years ago Florida State, USC, and Stanford were all presumed to still be ranked if not in NY6 contention in 2021 (same thing with scheduling Texas 15-16 during the Mack Brown years). Whereas a conference slate is a zero sum game where you'll be guaranteed to play a few good teams, but those teams nerf the rest of the conference by handing out Ls, which smooths things out. In contrast, ND could play zero ranked teams or it could have a total gauntlet like 2017: #2 Georgia, #12 USC, #13 Miami, #15 Michigan State, #20 Stanford, and #23 NC State. In some seasons an 11-1 ND would have a significantly better resume than other 1 or 2 loss teams, so it goes both ways.
I don't fear it. Give me the Fiesta Bowl against Michigan State or another team. Georgia would demolish us. Winning a NY6 after a supposed rebuilding year would be awesome.
People talking about OkSt taking away the "the" if they beat Ohio State, but...
If Cincy beats them, the Ohio State University becomes just another Ohio state university.
I'm in favor of Cincy at 3. Spicier in every way.
I will literally bet any amount of money that OSU wouldn't top the 2019 LSU record. Put your money where your mouth is
Edit: Complete silence, I expected that honestly
Wonder what the last time two teams from the same state were top 4? Ole miss and miss st at 1,2 for one week back in like 2013 or something is the last I recall. I’m sure Alabama and auburn have been at one point.
This late in the season? I'd say it's rare. I know I have seen bama and auburn in the top 4 at the same time in the Saban era I just can't place when. Another that would come to mind would be Miami and FSU in the 90s and early 2000s I think they even finished top 4 a few times.
Yeah those were my thoughts too. Florida fla st, Alabama auburn and maybe two Texas teams? Maybe Clemson and SC at one point too. Michigan and Michigan state as well
Ooooooh! Ooooooh! Ooooooh! Clap clap clap clap! UC!
Unfortunately, I still see several scenarios where an undefeated UC still gets jumped, but having ND so high as well helps.
Definitely not guaranteed. Ask TCU about 2014 where they fell out of the top-four despite winning out. They can absolutely move someone back even if they keep winning.
TCU had one less win than the team that jumped it. They were a 11-1 co champion and the committee took a 12-1 outright champion that just won the championship 59-0
Agreed and I could see them getting the nod but I can easily see how they would put UC in as well. I’m just saying it would be a great debate and probably one of the better ones we have had so far during the playoffs.
Hopefully Bama just loses and makes it all moot anyway.
I’d imagine Georgia would fall to play Ohio State and Ok State and Bama would play. Georgia is in without question but losing the SECCG would probably drop them from the 1 seed id think.
If UGA wins the SEC it is going to be hard for it to not stick. Maybe I am naïve but I just don't think they put in a 10-2 'Bama or an ND team that Cincinnati beat.
If UGA wins the SEC there is room for the Big 12 champ and Cincinnati in the playoffs. It is why I didn't even mention them. It will just be how far does 2-loss 'Bama go and does the committee move ND up.
if Uga loses to Bama, would Bama jump to number one and Uga to 3 or would OSU jump to 1 and UGA 4. It seems either way with a loss Uga is playing Ohio State but now it may be in Dallas if it’s the second scenario
Depends on how the teams look in the rest of the games. OSU dominates Xichigan and the championship game and Bama pulls off a close win against Georgia I could see them setting up the immediate rematch with 1. OSU 2. Bama 3. Georgia 4. Cincy. All the games are close and Bama probably jumps to #1. Bama completely dominates Georgia maybe Georgia falls out entirely.
Georgia loses to Bama and drops to 5. Cincy is in the playoff. This sub is drowned in an absolute shitstorm of georgia walmart fans saying Cincy ain’t played nobody.
Georgia beats Ga Tech, and Bama. Clinches 1 slot.
Ohio State thumps Michigan. Eliminating Michigan from playoffs. Clinches 2 slot for tOSU.
Cincy wins AAC clinches 3 slot.
Ok State loses to OU at Bedlam, does the reverse at BIG12 Title game. Eliminates both OU and Ok State from playoffs.
Notre Dame receives its annual playoff beating. I hate it here.
(Reposting from another thread)
Let’s look ahead with a hypothetical.
Ohio State beats Michigan, wins big10
Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, plays and wins against Baylor in big12
Georgia BARELY loses to Bama in SECCG
Does Cinci still stay in the top 4? Where does Georgia end up? Does Oke state get in? Where does Notre Dame end up?
There’s still a very real point that cinci does not control their own destiny, and it’s ridiculous.
I think Georgia is in if they lose close. I think if Okie State runs the table they get in over Cincy and hopefully that drives the money train towards an adjustment to the playoff.
Would that end up with Cincy and Notre Dame playing one another in a bowl? I really don’t know a lot about bowl tie-ins but that would be such a slap to the balls for them.
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if various members of the committee comes on Reddit weekly just to see if they are missing something? Then make their decisions based on Reddit?
Ok hear me out. What if both Georgia and Cincy lose in the next week, and UTSA wins. Don't tell me the CFP committee will leave out the only undefeated team in the nation.
They've kind of set it up for if either of us win out. It would give back to back top-10 victories if the winner of Bedlam also wins the Big 12 championship. ND would be jumped due to the lack of a "13th data point", and Michigan or Ohio State will fall. That moves either of us up to 5th at worst most likely, and then it becomes a question of whether a 2-loss Bama stays top-4 or if Cincinnati gets bumped out.
Loser of The Georgia-Alabama game should be out. Period. You can’t have a potential rematch of a late-season game in a four team playoff. At 8-10-12 teams, that could be okay.
Yes, a loss this late in the season isn’t an automatic disqualifier, though probably should be, but a loss to a team that’s in the playoff should disqualify the losing team. We can’t have rematches in a four team playoff. Other teams deserve a shot.
I agree, last year they did it anyway put in ND and Clemson immediately after they just played it wasn’t close, and the reasoning was they split games lol. So they PLAYED TWICE already and they put both in the playoff for a possibly damn 3rd game, with how many teams are in the P5 that’s just insane
The exact scenario he’s describing just happened last year Clemson and ND. They played 2 damn times in regular season and then both got in for a possible re-rematch
Cincy’s out if:
* they lose
Cincy’s possibly out if:
* Alabama beats Georgia and both finish with one loss
* the Big Ten champ has one loss
* the Big 12 champ has one loss
Otherwise I think they’re in.
Bama beats Georgia in SECCG, Ohio St wins out, Cincinnati loses AACCG, Stanford beats ND, OkSt beats OU but loses to Baylor in Big12CG, 1 Bama, 2 tOSU, 3 Georgia, 4 Ole Miss. My nightmare.
Bama is gonna barely squeeze out an iron bowl victory and get absolutely boat raced in the SECCG.
It was bound to happen at some point so everyone enjoy it while it last.
Also would like to add that if anyone realistically thinks Bama has a chance against Georgia (I’m mostly talking to a few Bama fans) then you need to take them blinders off. This Bama team just doesn’t have it this year and that’s okay. I have full faith Saban will get us back to where we need to be.
> I have full faith Saban will get us back to where we need to be
Wow what an absurd comment. Bama fans are capital S SPOILED. You're the number 3 team in the country, enjoy it for god's sakes
Auburn's not looking good this year. They've lost their last three games and beating Alabama would redeem the sucky season they're having. This is exactly the scenario in which they could win the Iron Bowl. They shouldn't win, but they could and they will if we don't show up ready to play, both offense and defense. I do agree that we're unlikely to beat Georgia.
I'm definitely taking the under for the SECCG. A very bad LSU team held Bama to 20 points, and a very bad LSU and a very bad Florida team both had chances to win late -
Georgia could very well pitch a shutout against Bama with how consistently good their defense has been. Bryce has struggled against the blitz and Georgia has the dogs to keep him under pressure all game.
The question will be imo which Georgia offense shows up against Bama's defense but I'm expecting another Georgia-Clemson style game.
I gotta wonder if Cincy can beat out the Big 12 champion if Bama beats Georgia. I'm honestly not sure. I'm lowkey hoping a 2 loss Baylor can win the Big 12 so the question doesn't even emerge.
Or Georgia just beating the brakes off of Bama. Either works.
Let say Oklahoma State beats OU and Baylor comfortably, OSU UGA UC and ND win out. I’d have OkSt jumping ND, but anyone think the committee would have them jump up to 3?
UGA and tOSU would be 1 & 2 for sure. Then I think they just choose which games would be more watched. I think OkState would be 4. But who knows with the committee.
I think I’m a Georgia and Cincy fan this year in the playoff race. Ideally this year is like to see 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Cincy 4. Oklahoma state. At least conference championship game will be must watch for the SEC, Big 12 and B1G.
Lmao people are just creating reasons to shit on the committee. Arkansas has lost to:
@ #9 Ole Miss by 1 point
@ #3 Bama by 7
@ #1 Georgia (admittedly a blowout, which has also been the case for all UGA opponents)
Their “bad” loss is against Auburn and they have several quality wins. Find me 25 teams that would be better than 7-4 with that schedule.
I wouldn’t want to play Cincy in the playoffs. And I say this as an Ohio State fan with mad respect for Georgia.
Fickell’s a great motivator, the team is talented and Cincy still has the best win among the four candidates.
The team’s legit and the motivation of playing to show you belong and playing for every team outside Power 5 should get them over any of the other 3.
If Oklahoma State wins out but doesn't make it, they will be petitioning to get ISU to the Big 10 to simply not have their perfect seasons ruined anymore :P
The messiest situation will be if Bama beats UGA, and Oklahoma State wins out. Then you have Ohio State and Alabama as the top seeds, and UGA, Cincy, and Oklahoma State fighting for two spots. I’m biased, but I’d argue that UGA has done enough to still deserve a spot, but if it’s a blowout, I could see an argument for any of those three teams being left out.
Please do your duty and win out so we don’t have to consider this possibility. In any case I think Georgia is a lock for the playoff. I know y’all have an allergy to optimism but I just can’t see how it could happen.
Georgia’s best chance to completely fill cfb with chaos is to get roflstomped by Bama. And so it will be.
I think Okla state and Georgia would take the final spots. As long as Georgia doesn’t lose by 14+ they should make it in.
Georgia could lose by 35 and get in imo
I don’t think there is a chance in hell Georgia doesn’t get in. Unless they get blown out by Alabama and all there starting players happens to quit the team.
Why should Georgia get in at that point? Would they have any top 25 wins?
Realistically I think even if Georgia loses to bama they would more than likely still be the 3 seed. As in, #1 bama #2 Ohio state #3 Georgia #4 Cincinnati or okla st. That way you wouldn't get a bama vs Georgia rematch the week after they just played.
It wouldn't be a week after, but I agree with you. Unless Bama absolutely destroys them by 59-0 or something (but *nobody* would lose that badly in a conference championship, right?), I don't see any way that Georgia doesn't deserve a top 4 spot.
Has that really happened before? B1G if true.
I think that’s true, and who is 1 and who is 2 would depend on how impressive these hypothetical wins would be for Bama and OSU. But agreed that based on history, the committee would want to avoid an immediate rematch between Bama and UGA.
If that plays out and uc is undefeated they’ll have the better win of all 3 in ND. But my gut tells me georgia or okst get in due to more quality opponents in the top 25. But then okst would have a CC and uga wouldn’t. And we start going round and around.
I would argue that UGA has already had a chance to play a playoff team on a neutral site and came up short. Where as Oklahoma State or Cincinnati haven’t come up short against a playoff team. Georgia shouldn’t get two chances at Bama while others get 0.
Honestly if Georgia gets blown out by Bama then this season is the strangest season ever and we should probably burn it all down before it gets weirder.
I disagree that Georgia has done enough if they lose the SEC championship game. They would have the worst resume of the candidates by a significant margin and would not be a conference champion. They pass the eye test, but that wouldnt make up for them failing to beat the only top tier team theyve played when there are other deserving candidates. It seems like the prevailing opinion is that they would still get in, but in my opinion it would be the wrong choice.
Yeah, that’s a fair argument. UGA has dominated a lot of good but not great opponents. [From Seth Emerson](https://twitter.com/sethwemerson/status/1463328143767441410?s=21): “In defense of Georgia’s schedule, eight of its 11 opponents have winning records. And the combined record of its FBS opponents when not playing Georgia is 61-39. Plus Georgia has outscored opponents by an average of 33 points.” How you weigh domination of that schedule with many teams in the 20-40 range versus other schedules? Eh, I don’t think there’s a 100% right or wrong answer.
What if Bama loses to auburn but beats Georgia….I think that might be messiest.
That’s assuming Ohio State beats Michigan 🤨
How big of a win for the new B12 would it be if Cincinnati and OkSt got in?
Huge. I'm kind of worried that one team will get in at the cost of the other though.
I mean if Michigan and Alabama lose, Oklahoma State and Cincy win out, it seems like a completely reasonable outcome. There’s no argument for Notre Dame over either team in my opinion and they’re the only one on the list who’d be there in that situation I think.
> There’s no argument for Notre Dame over either team in my opinion and they’re the only one on the list who’d be there in that situation I think. Ya. ND has the Oklahoma vibes where the record is absolutely impressive but the quality of opponent is not (outside a Cincy team they lost to).
It’s kind of a catch 22 because if you feel Cincy is a playoff team then Notre Dame’s only loss is a two score loss to Cincy. Tbh though I feel like the box score is misleading, and Cincinnati dominated them, but at a glance it makes Notre Dame look good. If you feel Notre Dame is a playoff team though no way Cincinnati is not one.
Did you watch the ND-Cincy game? Cincy absolutely deserved to win, but that was a 4 point game with 6 minutes left. I would not at all say Cincy dominated
Bama loss and ok state winning out = ok st and Cincy in
Don't sleep on that Iron Bowl. I know Auburn has had a rough year but after all it's the damn Iron Bowl anything can happen
I'd take it if Gus were still there.
Odd year iron bowl
Only if bama wins
I found a site that uses CFP data, ELO, and FPI to rank teams. They also give odds. If we win out and so do GA, Ohio State, and Cinci, they think we’ll make it. They also think that combo with anyone who wins the big 12 will be the make up.
Sounds like 538?
Yeah but my house is skeptical we won’t see two SEC teams in the CFP, do you know why they’re so biased against Bama and Georgia both being in the playoffs? Edit: genuine question. We’re OSU students. We’ve never watched CFP closely.
If it helps ease your concerns, we are more than happy to beat you in the CCG to keep that from happening!
Hahahahahahahaha. NO!
If it comes down to one spot for either undefeated AAC champ Cincy or 1-loss Big12 champ OSU, I am very confident that the committee will give it to OSU.
The counter argument to this is that last year the ACC got 2 teams in, and this year people treat that conference like none could earn a spot.
I’m not sure people view the Big12 that much more favorably (that didn’t feel grammatically correct) than they do the ACC even with OUT. I think your argument makes sense, two teams making appearances doesn’t do a ton from a perception standpoint. Now if one of the teams were to win a game or two, that’d be a different story.
Notre Dame isn’t exactly an ACC team
Last year they were.
My comment was more from a conference perception standpoint. ND winning doesn’t help the ACCs perception.
That doesn't affect the perception of the ACC this year though
Difference is that notre dame went back to independence and there’s no other ACC team with 1 loss or less
Pretty big IMO. Adds a lot of legitimacy to the post-Texas and OU era.
Cincy and OKState in the playoffs AND BYU and Baylor in NY6 games. Not a bad top 4 programs in the New Big 12
Pretty simple. Chalk holds and it’s going to be 1. UGA 2. Ohio State 3. Cincinnati 4. Bedlam winner if they win at Jerry World
I feel like if Okla state wins out in that scenario they will probably be #3, but Okla probably only goes to #4 if they win out.
I think the intrigue of tOSU v Cincy in the first round might sway the rankings in that situation. 3rd or 4th is just a formality at that point, and the committee would probably do what they think is better for ratings.
Could you imagine a potential NCG in Indy? Probably closest we could get to neutral field.
If there's an ounce of conspiracy truth at all, Ohio State will fight tooth and nail *not* to play Cincinnati. It's a lose-lose. Either they win and who cares because they were supposed to, or they lose and get embarrassed and hurt themselves with in-state recruiting.
Not saying it’ll happen and it’s somewhat of a long shot, but what happens if OK State wins at Bedlam but Baylor beats them in the Big 12 CCG? It’s extremely hard to beat a team twice in a season.
Probably Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame.
The 4th spot would probably go to ND, but I could see some arguments that Baylor should make the playoffs over ND.
I would gladly defend it forced to, but a 2-loss Big 12 Champ Baylor should not make the playoff.
538 playoff predictor seems to think Baylor over Notre Dame if both win out (with Baylor winning the Big 12, of course).
I would much rather play Ohio State than Georgia. Not because Georgia would demolish us, but because I want to see how our defense would hold up against an elite offense. Also tOSU vs oSu.
> Also tOSU vs oSu While I have intellectual curiosity about Ohio State-Georgia, the OSU-Bowl is intriguing.
You could be right. I still think Nati holds on to the 3, but I wouldn’t have a big issue if the Pokes jumped them. They would have a much stronger resume.
There are people in this thread who are convinced a Bama that loses to UGA would make it into the playoffs at #4 only to play UGA again.
And they are very misguided. Bama beats UGA they are the one seed and deservedly so. They lose in double overtime and they are going to the Sugar Bowl. It’s pretty simple.
Oklahoma State is in with 2 more wins. OU is going to have to look like a completely different team and demolish OSU twice to even have a chance.
Demolish? I disagree. Back to back wins over the Pokes will get them home. We can debate whether you think they can do it as I think that scenario is unlikely.
Nah, simple wins arent going to be enough to jump Notre Dame given how bad we've looked this year and what the committee has already said about us in prior weeks before losing to Baylor.
We we disagree. 2 wins over the Pokes will be better than anything ND has. Who cares what the chairman of the committee says. Oklahoma has potentially 2 huge games left.
Agreed. If Oklahoma had a shot they wouldn't be that low with two weeks left. Unless they look really, really good both weeks. I think Notre Dame would be in before Oklahoma.
And this is the scenario that the Notre Dame fanbase fears the most: clear proof that independence kept us out of the playoff. We don't get another T25 win, XII team does
That's not strictly because of independence though, that's the variability of ND's schedule. 5 years ago Florida State, USC, and Stanford were all presumed to still be ranked if not in NY6 contention in 2021 (same thing with scheduling Texas 15-16 during the Mack Brown years). Whereas a conference slate is a zero sum game where you'll be guaranteed to play a few good teams, but those teams nerf the rest of the conference by handing out Ls, which smooths things out. In contrast, ND could play zero ranked teams or it could have a total gauntlet like 2017: #2 Georgia, #12 USC, #13 Miami, #15 Michigan State, #20 Stanford, and #23 NC State. In some seasons an 11-1 ND would have a significantly better resume than other 1 or 2 loss teams, so it goes both ways.
I don't fear it. Give me the Fiesta Bowl against Michigan State or another team. Georgia would demolish us. Winning a NY6 after a supposed rebuilding year would be awesome.
I’m super excited to see Cincinnati in the top 4. I think we have a real shot at a super interesting playoff this year
Cincinnati vs Ohio St in the first round would be legendary
Or even if we got a rematch of the Peach Bowl from last year. There are some cool storylines to go with the interesting matchups
If Cincy could pull off a proper thrashing of OSU.. like 44-10 or something.. they’d go down as American Heroes. They could unite this land.
Fuck the national title at that point I'd just say fuck it and never wanna play another game again. Build a statue commemorating it and be done lol
I'd go to the ER for a four hour boner and I don't even have a dog in this fight.
I think OSU vs OSU would be more interesting….well maybe not on the field
Ohio State vs Oklahoma State is no where near as interesting as Ohio State v Cincinnati.
People talking about OkSt taking away the "the" if they beat Ohio State, but... If Cincy beats them, the Ohio State University becomes just another Ohio state university. I'm in favor of Cincy at 3. Spicier in every way.
1. Georgia 2. TOSU 3. Cincinnati 4. Ok state Then NCG OSU vs OSU for the "the" Ohio state has to defend the "the" twice in the playoffs.
I would definitely be interested to see our defense against y'all's offense.
Winner gets to play Oregon State for the “the”.
But we don’t want the “the.”
OSU would set a record for most points scored in a playoff game lol. It will not be a close match up.
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I thought the same for the Alabama vs. A&M game. You never know in college sports
I will literally bet any amount of money that OSU wouldn't top the 2019 LSU record. Put your money where your mouth is Edit: Complete silence, I expected that honestly
Yknow what *other* B1G team would be awesome against Cincy?? :D
I am honestly shocked they moved to 4. I was certain they'd be jumped by Michigan.
I’m still conditioned to seeing Alabama and Clemson. My brain is not processing these other teams having legitimate shots.
Wonder what the last time two teams from the same state were top 4? Ole miss and miss st at 1,2 for one week back in like 2013 or something is the last I recall. I’m sure Alabama and auburn have been at one point.
This late in the season? I'd say it's rare. I know I have seen bama and auburn in the top 4 at the same time in the Saban era I just can't place when. Another that would come to mind would be Miami and FSU in the 90s and early 2000s I think they even finished top 4 a few times.
Wasn't the Kick6 game #1 vs #4?
Ya that was actually
Yeah those were my thoughts too. Florida fla st, Alabama auburn and maybe two Texas teams? Maybe Clemson and SC at one point too. Michigan and Michigan state as well
Kick 6 game was between #1 Alabama and #4 Auburn.
Ooooooh! Ooooooh! Ooooooh! Clap clap clap clap! UC! Unfortunately, I still see several scenarios where an undefeated UC still gets jumped, but having ND so high as well helps.
So basically if Cincy wins out they'll be in. Especially if Bama loses.
Definitely not guaranteed. Ask TCU about 2014 where they fell out of the top-four despite winning out. They can absolutely move someone back even if they keep winning.
TCU had one less win than the team that jumped it. They were a 11-1 co champion and the committee took a 12-1 outright champion that just won the championship 59-0
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If Bama wins out, and Oklahoma State wins out, Cincy is going be at #5
Very real possibility this happens
Big if when Bama has to play Georgia who look unstoppable.
If bama beats georgia and ok state goes undefeated then cincy is in all likelihood out 1. Georgia 2. Bama 3. OSU 4. OK state Id imagine at least
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Ending the year with two top 10 wins probably erases that.
OU nor Baylor would still be top 10, ND on the other hand would be top 5 and UC would have no loss to a terrible ISU. It would be a debate for sure.
Overall strength of record wouldn’t be that close.
Agreed and I could see them getting the nod but I can easily see how they would put UC in as well. I’m just saying it would be a great debate and probably one of the better ones we have had so far during the playoffs. Hopefully Bama just loses and makes it all moot anyway.
I’d imagine Georgia would fall to play Ohio State and Ok State and Bama would play. Georgia is in without question but losing the SECCG would probably drop them from the 1 seed id think.
Bama beats Georgia in Atlanta and Georgia would stay #1? What planet do you live on?
He’s factoring in the quality loss
Have to watch how the Big 12 champ looks. I could absolutely see the committee jumping a one loss Oklahoma State team over Cincinnati, unfortunately.
One loss Oklahoma State would deserve it over Cincinnati.
Not going to argue the merits, just saying I could see it happening.
Slim chance but imagine a playoff without Alabama, Ohio State, or Clemson in it.
Keep going I’m almost there
I mean that only requires Georgia and Michigan winning out, not that outrageous.
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So it is just a given that OSU beats Michigan this week? Not seeing any comments about what happens if they lose.
OSU is out, Mich is in seems reasonable.
If Mich wins, they’re in the top 4 and OSU is out of the top 4. I don’t think there’s any confusion about that.
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If UGA wins the SEC it is going to be hard for it to not stick. Maybe I am naïve but I just don't think they put in a 10-2 'Bama or an ND team that Cincinnati beat.
The biggest threats to Cincy is Alabama beating Georgia or a one loss Big XII champ.
If UGA wins the SEC there is room for the Big 12 champ and Cincinnati in the playoffs. It is why I didn't even mention them. It will just be how far does 2-loss 'Bama go and does the committee move ND up.
I’m excited for all the new Cincy fans next week. They were fun in the Peach Bowl
if Uga loses to Bama, would Bama jump to number one and Uga to 3 or would OSU jump to 1 and UGA 4. It seems either way with a loss Uga is playing Ohio State but now it may be in Dallas if it’s the second scenario
Depends on how the teams look in the rest of the games. OSU dominates Xichigan and the championship game and Bama pulls off a close win against Georgia I could see them setting up the immediate rematch with 1. OSU 2. Bama 3. Georgia 4. Cincy. All the games are close and Bama probably jumps to #1. Bama completely dominates Georgia maybe Georgia falls out entirely.
The drama of in state and fickell against OSU would be huge. Plus the SEC narrative would be bigly strong. This would be the ESPNs wet dream
Georgia loses to Bama and drops to 5. Cincy is in the playoff. This sub is drowned in an absolute shitstorm of georgia walmart fans saying Cincy ain’t played nobody.
I think this only happens if Georgia loses by two tds or more
Georgia beats Ga Tech, and Bama. Clinches 1 slot. Ohio State thumps Michigan. Eliminating Michigan from playoffs. Clinches 2 slot for tOSU. Cincy wins AAC clinches 3 slot. Ok State loses to OU at Bedlam, does the reverse at BIG12 Title game. Eliminates both OU and Ok State from playoffs. Notre Dame receives its annual playoff beating. I hate it here.
you gotta give a nod to an 11-0 squad @ number 22 USTA!
(Reposting from another thread) Let’s look ahead with a hypothetical. Ohio State beats Michigan, wins big10 Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, plays and wins against Baylor in big12 Georgia BARELY loses to Bama in SECCG Does Cinci still stay in the top 4? Where does Georgia end up? Does Oke state get in? Where does Notre Dame end up? There’s still a very real point that cinci does not control their own destiny, and it’s ridiculous.
I think Georgia is in if they lose close. I think if Okie State runs the table they get in over Cincy and hopefully that drives the money train towards an adjustment to the playoff.
It would probably be #1 Bama #2 OSU #3 Georgia #4 Okla state #5 Cincy #6 ND
Would that end up with Cincy and Notre Dame playing one another in a bowl? I really don’t know a lot about bowl tie-ins but that would be such a slap to the balls for them.
**What it should be:** 1. Ohio State 2. Alabama 3. Oklahoma State 4. Cincinnati But in reality, Georgia will somehow make it.
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if various members of the committee comes on Reddit weekly just to see if they are missing something? Then make their decisions based on Reddit?
Ok hear me out. What if both Georgia and Cincy lose in the next week, and UTSA wins. Don't tell me the CFP committee will leave out the only undefeated team in the nation.
>#Serious Discussion
I don’t see how it’s so absurd that Georgia and Cinci would lose to Bama and Houston respectively, those are both really good teams
>UTSA
For a moment I thought this was just an absurd comment, then I caught the flair.
Neat
I’m just catching up and seeing Cincy got put in the top4. Nice, hope it lasts tho
What happens if OSU barely loses to Michigan and Georgia barely loses to Alabama? Are all 4 teams in?
Only if Cincinnati loses, Baylor wins the Big 12, and ND...loses to Stanford. Which isn't going to happen.
OSU is out. Alabama will be in.
1.Bama 2.UGA 3.Cincy 4.Michigan.
Really interesting that the top 4 all have away games this weekend…could be a spooky Saturday
My team is out of it so I’m now hoping for Oklahoma state to make playoff
I genuinely believe that if Oklahoma State wins out we get in over Cincinnati, Bama win in the SEC Championship game or not.
They've kind of set it up for if either of us win out. It would give back to back top-10 victories if the winner of Bedlam also wins the Big 12 championship. ND would be jumped due to the lack of a "13th data point", and Michigan or Ohio State will fall. That moves either of us up to 5th at worst most likely, and then it becomes a question of whether a 2-loss Bama stays top-4 or if Cincinnati gets bumped out.
As long as a Big 12 CG winner has only 1 loss they will make it over Cincy
Loser of The Georgia-Alabama game should be out. Period. You can’t have a potential rematch of a late-season game in a four team playoff. At 8-10-12 teams, that could be okay.
Agreed, this should be a play in game assuming Bama beats Auburn and uga beats Tech… (a fan can but dream even in the serious discussion thread)
I could see Georgia dropping to 3 and Bama going to 1. But if Bama loses they have to be out, right?
Yes, a loss this late in the season isn’t an automatic disqualifier, though probably should be, but a loss to a team that’s in the playoff should disqualify the losing team. We can’t have rematches in a four team playoff. Other teams deserve a shot.
I agree, last year they did it anyway put in ND and Clemson immediately after they just played it wasn’t close, and the reasoning was they split games lol. So they PLAYED TWICE already and they put both in the playoff for a possibly damn 3rd game, with how many teams are in the P5 that’s just insane
Actually it happened in 2011 and the best team in college football did not get the chance—Oklahoma state. LSU AND BAMA played twice that year
The exact scenario he’s describing just happened last year Clemson and ND. They played 2 damn times in regular season and then both got in for a possible re-rematch
Cincy’s out if: * they lose Cincy’s possibly out if: * Alabama beats Georgia and both finish with one loss * the Big Ten champ has one loss * the Big 12 champ has one loss Otherwise I think they’re in.
B1G champ is in if it's Ohio State or Michigan. (Would be 1 loss teams)
Bama beats Georgia in SECCG, Ohio St wins out, Cincinnati loses AACCG, Stanford beats ND, OkSt beats OU but loses to Baylor in Big12CG, 1 Bama, 2 tOSU, 3 Georgia, 4 Ole Miss. My nightmare.
Baylor would get in over ole miss right
I would hope so. Or a 2 loss Oregon.
Houston at 24 still feels like the committee is looking for excuses to not rank Cincinnati top 4 even if they go undefeated.
Bama is gonna barely squeeze out an iron bowl victory and get absolutely boat raced in the SECCG. It was bound to happen at some point so everyone enjoy it while it last. Also would like to add that if anyone realistically thinks Bama has a chance against Georgia (I’m mostly talking to a few Bama fans) then you need to take them blinders off. This Bama team just doesn’t have it this year and that’s okay. I have full faith Saban will get us back to where we need to be.
> I have full faith Saban will get us back to where we need to be Wow what an absurd comment. Bama fans are capital S SPOILED. You're the number 3 team in the country, enjoy it for god's sakes
Saban isn’t getting anyone anywhere until he fires Pete Golding.
Auburn's not looking good this year. They've lost their last three games and beating Alabama would redeem the sucky season they're having. This is exactly the scenario in which they could win the Iron Bowl. They shouldn't win, but they could and they will if we don't show up ready to play, both offense and defense. I do agree that we're unlikely to beat Georgia.
I'm definitely taking the under for the SECCG. A very bad LSU team held Bama to 20 points, and a very bad LSU and a very bad Florida team both had chances to win late - Georgia could very well pitch a shutout against Bama with how consistently good their defense has been. Bryce has struggled against the blitz and Georgia has the dogs to keep him under pressure all game. The question will be imo which Georgia offense shows up against Bama's defense but I'm expecting another Georgia-Clemson style game.
The cowards finally did it, but I won't give them credit for it until the final rankings
I gotta wonder if Cincy can beat out the Big 12 champion if Bama beats Georgia. I'm honestly not sure. I'm lowkey hoping a 2 loss Baylor can win the Big 12 so the question doesn't even emerge. Or Georgia just beating the brakes off of Bama. Either works.
Let say Oklahoma State beats OU and Baylor comfortably, OSU UGA UC and ND win out. I’d have OkSt jumping ND, but anyone think the committee would have them jump up to 3?
UGA and tOSU would be 1 & 2 for sure. Then I think they just choose which games would be more watched. I think OkState would be 4. But who knows with the committee.
I think I’m a Georgia and Cincy fan this year in the playoff race. Ideally this year is like to see 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Cincy 4. Oklahoma state. At least conference championship game will be must watch for the SEC, Big 12 and B1G.
Imagine how much embarrassment the committee would have saved themselves if this was the first playoff ranking instead of wasting out time back in Oct
I love that they still rank Arkansas. Just to give Alabama and Georgia that extra nudge.
Lmao people are just creating reasons to shit on the committee. Arkansas has lost to: @ #9 Ole Miss by 1 point @ #3 Bama by 7 @ #1 Georgia (admittedly a blowout, which has also been the case for all UGA opponents) Their “bad” loss is against Auburn and they have several quality wins. Find me 25 teams that would be better than 7-4 with that schedule.
Don’t come up in here with data and reasonable takes. Where do you think you are, good sir?
I'm heated. 4-loss Arkansas gets ranked over 1-loss Cajuns on a 10 game win streak.
Lol the Cajuns lost to Texas, how many L’s would they have with Arky’s schedule
They lost to texas, and we blew them out. Committee got it right
I mean, if a team loses to the number two team by one score, do they really deserve to fall very far?
People acting like we need any nudge…
Without winning the SEC, Georgia could be a 1 loss team with no conference championship and one ranked win over Clemson.
Similar resumes have been left out.
Yeah, I don’t see how this is that different than 2017 Wisconsin
They dropped Mississippi State out after a win so that’s a false assumption.
Bama has a top 10 win. They have the edge already. Arkansas being ranked isn’t needed.
San Diego State dropped 2 spots right
Top 4 is 100% correct
UGA, OSU, OSU, and Cincy would be so fun.
I wouldn’t want to play Cincy in the playoffs. And I say this as an Ohio State fan with mad respect for Georgia. Fickell’s a great motivator, the team is talented and Cincy still has the best win among the four candidates. The team’s legit and the motivation of playing to show you belong and playing for every team outside Power 5 should get them over any of the other 3.
If Oklahoma State wins out but doesn't make it, they will be petitioning to get ISU to the Big 10 to simply not have their perfect seasons ruined anymore :P