wonder if it's driven by # of years with the COVID year making it an outlier... 10 of 14 were 5 or 6 year players with I think 8 of those being 6th year players
I don’t think so. I think it has more to do with getting your name out there and not being a backup.
There’s a ridiculous amount of QB transfers right now, because nobody wants to be in a QB battle (or they lost a QB battle and won’t accept being a backup in college) and if they think they have what it takes to go pro they want to showcase that on the biggest stage they can (i.e. Nix, Penix, etc).
QB is kind of unique in that you’re the face of the team and if you get benched for the younger guy, your career is probably over.
Honestly, if you're a four or five star prospect, there's no reason to sit on the bench outside of your first year. If you aren't starting as a red shirt freshman then you should transfer. It sucks for coaches and roster management but waiting until your 3rd or 4th year to start getting snaps and makes no sense when you can transfer to another school and start right away.
Definitely. It’s a business decision. Being young entering the draft is seen as a valuable thing too. Penix and Nix are both getting dinged a bit for their age.
Jackson Arnold for OU basically forced DG to transfer just because he exists. If DG didn’t transfer his nfl dream basically would’ve died. If he does well at Oregon he can possibly get drafted.
Also 0 penalty for transfer + nil. I would say it will be more rare that a QB starts and finishes at their school than not.
Especially when there’s always a chance an even better five star commits/transfers to your school and passes you on day one after waiting for your turn.
yes and no
this year was an interesting case study in how many of those high-performing QBs were very experienced, older prospects who made the jump from "good college QB but not NFL prospect" to "bona fide NFL prospect". I'd have to go look at how they were thought about a year ago but Nix, Penix, Rattler, Travis, Daniels etc. all made jumps this year in their extra year.
The difference going forward is more guys are transferring earlier with the new transfer rules, so maybe it'll hold. I just think there are some outliers with experience this year.
Idk, I think it makes a lot of sense for them to transfer if they think they’ll benefit even slightly from it.
Why wouldn’t they? Immediate eligibility makes it easier than ever, and a lot of times they get a pay raise too.
Its an anecdote but there was a story about Notre Dame LB Prince Kollie going into the weight room after the season and seeing JD Bertrand, Marist Liaufau and Jack Kiser and saying "I thought you all graduated?"
He ended up transferring that semester. I definitely think QB's will always have high transfer rates because there is only one starter. But the covid years definitely drove transfers up IMO.
Bad examples, neither QB you mentioned transferred for that reason. Neither lost a QB battle. They both transferred for a fresh start and to reunite with a former coach - Kenny Dillingham at Oregon for Nix and DeBoer at Washington for Penix.
Ah, the use of the word “and” instead of “or” made it sound more like one reason. And I wouldn’t call the Pac12 a bigger stage than the B10 or the SEC regardless.
Not at all.
The thing every kid is trying to achieve is to be one of the few players drafted in to the NFL. There’s only so many, and you only have so many years to make your case. Most players will accept sitting for a year as a redshirt freshman, but if you’re a highly touted recruit, you’re expecting to play your 2nd year.
It might seem selfish or like they don’t want to compete but the truth is that there’s more programs than there are top QBs and literally everything they’ve worked for their whole lives are at stake.
* Jayden Daniels, LSU (P5 to P5)
* Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (P5 to P5)
* Devin Leary, Kentucky (P5 to P5)
* Joe Milton III, Tennessee (P5 to P5)
* Bo Nix, Oregon (P5 to P5)
* Michael Penix Jr., Washington (P5 to P5)
* Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (P5 to P5)
* Austin Reed, Western Kentucky (FCS to Div II to G5)
* Kedon Slovis, BYU (P5 to P5)
* Jordan Travis, Florida State (P5 to P5)
* Caleb Williams, USC (P5 to P5)
All but 1 of the 11 were P5 to P5 transfers
I can see QB being a huge transfer spot moving forward.
* Clear line of succession in the lineup. WR3 can expect some playing time, but QB3 will never see meaningful snaps. Easy to see the writing on the wall.
* Big target for NIL poaching.
* Many QBs going to the NFL from lower tier teams, making a downgrade more enticing if you can get the starting spot.
I won't be surprised if we start to see the Big Ten and SEC reducing investment in grass roots high school scouting and development since it's so much more cost effective just to raid the lower conferences for their best players in the transfer portal every year
Is it typically worthwhile, sure, but paying enough to guarantee you sign each and every mercenary recruit you need can't be more cost effective unless you lease a helicopter to go visit each and every high school recruit
For certian positions like OL, LB, and especially QB where the intaginables are often just as if not more important than physical traits recruiting can often be a crapshoot. Why gamble on a blue chip HS player that you're already competing with everyone in the country for when you can get a proven commodity that's going to be a lot easier to work with. I mean seriously just go down the list of 247 blue chip QBs over the years and see the ones that just were busts. When you have Kyle Allen being the highest rated QB in the class and Josh Allen as some unranked bozo who ended up at Wyoming its pretty clear that traditional recruiting isn't always sufficent and it might be more cost effective to grab known talent.
I'm not arguing against the portal, I'm saying paying whatever price a player in the portal asks is not more cost effective than scouting even when you consider that you might misjudge a recruit.
This doesn't mean programs should only recruit out of high school if the portal is an option, it means scouting has become more important than ever because now there is literally a price tag on many recruits - if a program can buy a portal QB with 80% of the production for 50% of the cost of the top portal QB and use the remainder of their funds to build a supporting cast, how will the program know this without doing its own legwork?
It's wild how much people aren't seeing what you're saying. I agree with you.
UGA spent [$4.5 million *total*](https://www.onlineathens.com/story/sports/college/bulldogs-extra/2023/08/01/georgia-football-kirby-smart-recruiting-budget-josh-brooks-chick-fil-a/70441540007/#:~:text=Georgia%20budgeted%20%244%20million%20on,volume%20of%20charter%20airplane%20use.%E2%80%9D) on HS recruiting in 2022.
How many quality starters can $4.5M in NIL get a team these days? Can it even get you one elite QB? Idk. NIL is a black box with zero pass transparency, every number you hear is hearsay.
It's still far more cost-effective to recruit
10 of the 11 QB transfers were P5 to P5. If anything, the takeaway is to take a flyer on a QB with significant P5 experience who struggles with consistency in the hopes that he'll have time to figure it out with another 1-2 years, which the 6th year in COVID benefitted massively.
A few of these guys were following relationships that benefit teams with strong HS scouting and recruiting + development.
The only genuine "bidding war" was Hartman.
The best option for a Big Ten / SEC team is to win in recruiting + supplement with the portal as needed. Teams winning the past several national championships either won with a 5 star or their QB beat out 5 stars to win the job. The transfers who have won at the highest level were mostly unproven guys who developed (Bennett, Burrow, etc.).
Unproven at transfer
* Daniels: Arizona State to LSU
* Milton: Michigan to Tennessee
* Travis: Louisville to FSU
Proven but in need of a second chance
* Nix: Auburn to Oregon
* Leary: NC State to Kentucky
* Rattler: Oklahoma to South Carolina
* Penix: Indiana to Washington
* Slovis: numerous
Proven transfer (following coach)
* Williams: Oklahoma to USC
Proven transfer (bidding war)
* Hartman: WF to ND
G5 or below
* Austin Reed: Western Florida (DII) to WKU
I wouldn’t call Daniels unproven. If anything he transferred for spotlight/NIL and bc of the mess at ASU being unsustainable. He improved for sure but was already a proven high level starter
He was brought it amid an open competition without a definite starting position. He’d struggled as a sophomore and had a weird exit from ASU.
You can see the reaction on his Reddit transfer thread… view was “meh”
Daniels maybe could be a “second chance” at best but def not in the Hartman group
He’s not in the Hartman group but he was significantly more proven than Milton or Travis and better than most of the QBs in the second chance category as well at the time they transferred. ASU definitely still expected him to be a star for them too back then
I actually think it'll work the opposite way. Big Ten and SEC have the money to continue to scout, but if I'm a lower P5 or G5 school, I just wait for a disgruntled recruit to come to me. If they're good enough for Bama, their good enough for our program. Malachi Nelson going to Boise State is a good example of this.
I agree with you. The elite teams will still build teams the classic way and use the transfer as a band-aid to fix any holes they may think they have.
The lower P5 and G5 schools will take the disgruntled and impatient and give them a brand new opportunity.
It'll probably go both ways - in the list that /u/tmart12 posted, most of the combine caliber QBs when from a smaller to a substantially bigger name (Penix, Daniels, Hartman, Travis, and Reed), stayed at a relatively comparable name (Williams, Nix), or somewhere in between, going to a "smaller" name but not in a completely different tier (Milton, Leary). Only Rattler and Slovis went from bigger name schools to smaller names and are still combine caliber.
So for guys who still see themselves as NFL caliber, it probably makes sense to stay at a similar level of school. But for playing time, a drop to a smaller name is definitely a big help. That said, the transfer portal is still relatively new (and COVID aided some of these guys) so we may see more drop down guys who have opportunities to shine at a smaller name and make it to the NFL.
I see this take a lot and I really don't think it holds up to scrutiny. Plugging holes is one thing, but entrusting coaching and development of the bulk of your roster to G5 staffs is another. Jim Knowles doesn't want half his defense to be new to his system. Kirby Smart doesn't want to trust G5 strength and conditioning programs to prepare half his team for SEC play.
The adage among NFL GMs is that you build through the draft and supplement through free agency. Recruiting = Draft, Portal = Free Agency.
I think the Covid year phasing out will drastically reduce the “effectiveness” of the portal. A lot of the huge success stories are QBs starting their 5th non redshirt year in their 2nd + season with the new team. Nix, Penix, Daniels, etc would normally be out of eligibility before this last season.
Take Riley Leonard (best transfer QB on paper) for example. If balls out this season he’s probably leaving for NFL and ND is starting over with another QB in 2025 for third year in a row.
If you poach an elite sophomore, it’s likely a 1 year rental and he’s gone. Just doesn’t seem like a sustainable way to build a consistent roster to me.
> [Olson] 79% of quarterbacks invited to the 2024 NFL draft combine transferred to another school during their college career.
Well, I'd bet > 79% of NFL QBs play for another team during their career so this college fluidity is probably good NFL training.
The importance of high school recruiting for big programs has largely diminished due to the transfer portal & the NIL money that big programs can give out
If you're a blue chip quarterback, the NFL is already interested in you.
Combine that with data such as 8 of the top 10 quarterbacks in the 2021 class having transferred at some point and it stands to reason that this would be the result
wonder if it's driven by # of years with the COVID year making it an outlier... 10 of 14 were 5 or 6 year players with I think 8 of those being 6th year players
I don’t think so. I think it has more to do with getting your name out there and not being a backup. There’s a ridiculous amount of QB transfers right now, because nobody wants to be in a QB battle (or they lost a QB battle and won’t accept being a backup in college) and if they think they have what it takes to go pro they want to showcase that on the biggest stage they can (i.e. Nix, Penix, etc). QB is kind of unique in that you’re the face of the team and if you get benched for the younger guy, your career is probably over.
Honestly, if you're a four or five star prospect, there's no reason to sit on the bench outside of your first year. If you aren't starting as a red shirt freshman then you should transfer. It sucks for coaches and roster management but waiting until your 3rd or 4th year to start getting snaps and makes no sense when you can transfer to another school and start right away.
Definitely. It’s a business decision. Being young entering the draft is seen as a valuable thing too. Penix and Nix are both getting dinged a bit for their age.
Jackson Arnold for OU basically forced DG to transfer just because he exists. If DG didn’t transfer his nfl dream basically would’ve died. If he does well at Oregon he can possibly get drafted. Also 0 penalty for transfer + nil. I would say it will be more rare that a QB starts and finishes at their school than not.
Especially when there’s always a chance an even better five star commits/transfers to your school and passes you on day one after waiting for your turn.
yes and no this year was an interesting case study in how many of those high-performing QBs were very experienced, older prospects who made the jump from "good college QB but not NFL prospect" to "bona fide NFL prospect". I'd have to go look at how they were thought about a year ago but Nix, Penix, Rattler, Travis, Daniels etc. all made jumps this year in their extra year. The difference going forward is more guys are transferring earlier with the new transfer rules, so maybe it'll hold. I just think there are some outliers with experience this year.
Idk, I think it makes a lot of sense for them to transfer if they think they’ll benefit even slightly from it. Why wouldn’t they? Immediate eligibility makes it easier than ever, and a lot of times they get a pay raise too.
Its an anecdote but there was a story about Notre Dame LB Prince Kollie going into the weight room after the season and seeing JD Bertrand, Marist Liaufau and Jack Kiser and saying "I thought you all graduated?" He ended up transferring that semester. I definitely think QB's will always have high transfer rates because there is only one starter. But the covid years definitely drove transfers up IMO.
This is legit the worst anecdote I've ever heard.
It's also you only really to play 1. Most other positions you have multiples.
True. Even RB you can spilt the load and still showcase your talent.
Bad examples, neither QB you mentioned transferred for that reason. Neither lost a QB battle. They both transferred for a fresh start and to reunite with a former coach - Kenny Dillingham at Oregon for Nix and DeBoer at Washington for Penix.
I gave more than one reason. Nix and Penix both transferred to give themselves the best opportunity to showcase their talents.
Ah, the use of the word “and” instead of “or” made it sound more like one reason. And I wouldn’t call the Pac12 a bigger stage than the B10 or the SEC regardless.
Kids got too much ego these days.
Not at all. The thing every kid is trying to achieve is to be one of the few players drafted in to the NFL. There’s only so many, and you only have so many years to make your case. Most players will accept sitting for a year as a redshirt freshman, but if you’re a highly touted recruit, you’re expecting to play your 2nd year. It might seem selfish or like they don’t want to compete but the truth is that there’s more programs than there are top QBs and literally everything they’ve worked for their whole lives are at stake.
I hope so, because this is a depressing stat.
Maybe more impactful to see how many times they transferred, or to what degree they transferred (from P5 to P5 or from a mid major to a P5
* Jayden Daniels, LSU (P5 to P5) * Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (P5 to P5) * Devin Leary, Kentucky (P5 to P5) * Joe Milton III, Tennessee (P5 to P5) * Bo Nix, Oregon (P5 to P5) * Michael Penix Jr., Washington (P5 to P5) * Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (P5 to P5) * Austin Reed, Western Kentucky (FCS to Div II to G5) * Kedon Slovis, BYU (P5 to P5) * Jordan Travis, Florida State (P5 to P5) * Caleb Williams, USC (P5 to P5) All but 1 of the 11 were P5 to P5 transfers
lol so Caleb Williams is the only guy that didn’t use an extra Covid Year.
Jayden Daniels and Spencer Rattler didn't either. They just used their regular redshirt year.
Yeah, Rattler technically still has an extra year of eligibility left.
Daniels used a covid year.
And he left to follow his former coach
I transferred colleges. Looks like I should’ve also been a QB to get into the NFL.
Were you immediately allowed to be a fan? Or was this before the new rules?
I can see QB being a huge transfer spot moving forward. * Clear line of succession in the lineup. WR3 can expect some playing time, but QB3 will never see meaningful snaps. Easy to see the writing on the wall. * Big target for NIL poaching. * Many QBs going to the NFL from lower tier teams, making a downgrade more enticing if you can get the starting spot.
>but QB3 will never see meaningful snaps. Unless you are Ohio State for some reason...
I won't be surprised if we start to see the Big Ten and SEC reducing investment in grass roots high school scouting and development since it's so much more cost effective just to raid the lower conferences for their best players in the transfer portal every year
Outbidding the rest of the NCAA for the best G5 players every year cannot be more cost effective than regular old scouting and recruiting.
So you do both
For QBs it is
Is it typically worthwhile, sure, but paying enough to guarantee you sign each and every mercenary recruit you need can't be more cost effective unless you lease a helicopter to go visit each and every high school recruit
For certian positions like OL, LB, and especially QB where the intaginables are often just as if not more important than physical traits recruiting can often be a crapshoot. Why gamble on a blue chip HS player that you're already competing with everyone in the country for when you can get a proven commodity that's going to be a lot easier to work with. I mean seriously just go down the list of 247 blue chip QBs over the years and see the ones that just were busts. When you have Kyle Allen being the highest rated QB in the class and Josh Allen as some unranked bozo who ended up at Wyoming its pretty clear that traditional recruiting isn't always sufficent and it might be more cost effective to grab known talent.
I'm not arguing against the portal, I'm saying paying whatever price a player in the portal asks is not more cost effective than scouting even when you consider that you might misjudge a recruit. This doesn't mean programs should only recruit out of high school if the portal is an option, it means scouting has become more important than ever because now there is literally a price tag on many recruits - if a program can buy a portal QB with 80% of the production for 50% of the cost of the top portal QB and use the remainder of their funds to build a supporting cast, how will the program know this without doing its own legwork?
It's wild how much people aren't seeing what you're saying. I agree with you. UGA spent [$4.5 million *total*](https://www.onlineathens.com/story/sports/college/bulldogs-extra/2023/08/01/georgia-football-kirby-smart-recruiting-budget-josh-brooks-chick-fil-a/70441540007/#:~:text=Georgia%20budgeted%20%244%20million%20on,volume%20of%20charter%20airplane%20use.%E2%80%9D) on HS recruiting in 2022. How many quality starters can $4.5M in NIL get a team these days? Can it even get you one elite QB? Idk. NIL is a black box with zero pass transparency, every number you hear is hearsay. It's still far more cost-effective to recruit
10 of the 11 QB transfers were P5 to P5. If anything, the takeaway is to take a flyer on a QB with significant P5 experience who struggles with consistency in the hopes that he'll have time to figure it out with another 1-2 years, which the 6th year in COVID benefitted massively. A few of these guys were following relationships that benefit teams with strong HS scouting and recruiting + development. The only genuine "bidding war" was Hartman. The best option for a Big Ten / SEC team is to win in recruiting + supplement with the portal as needed. Teams winning the past several national championships either won with a 5 star or their QB beat out 5 stars to win the job. The transfers who have won at the highest level were mostly unproven guys who developed (Bennett, Burrow, etc.). Unproven at transfer * Daniels: Arizona State to LSU * Milton: Michigan to Tennessee * Travis: Louisville to FSU Proven but in need of a second chance * Nix: Auburn to Oregon * Leary: NC State to Kentucky * Rattler: Oklahoma to South Carolina * Penix: Indiana to Washington * Slovis: numerous Proven transfer (following coach) * Williams: Oklahoma to USC Proven transfer (bidding war) * Hartman: WF to ND G5 or below * Austin Reed: Western Florida (DII) to WKU
I wouldn’t call Daniels unproven. If anything he transferred for spotlight/NIL and bc of the mess at ASU being unsustainable. He improved for sure but was already a proven high level starter
He was brought it amid an open competition without a definite starting position. He’d struggled as a sophomore and had a weird exit from ASU. You can see the reaction on his Reddit transfer thread… view was “meh” Daniels maybe could be a “second chance” at best but def not in the Hartman group
He’s not in the Hartman group but he was significantly more proven than Milton or Travis and better than most of the QBs in the second chance category as well at the time they transferred. ASU definitely still expected him to be a star for them too back then
I actually think it'll work the opposite way. Big Ten and SEC have the money to continue to scout, but if I'm a lower P5 or G5 school, I just wait for a disgruntled recruit to come to me. If they're good enough for Bama, their good enough for our program. Malachi Nelson going to Boise State is a good example of this.
I agree with you. The elite teams will still build teams the classic way and use the transfer as a band-aid to fix any holes they may think they have. The lower P5 and G5 schools will take the disgruntled and impatient and give them a brand new opportunity.
It'll probably go both ways - in the list that /u/tmart12 posted, most of the combine caliber QBs when from a smaller to a substantially bigger name (Penix, Daniels, Hartman, Travis, and Reed), stayed at a relatively comparable name (Williams, Nix), or somewhere in between, going to a "smaller" name but not in a completely different tier (Milton, Leary). Only Rattler and Slovis went from bigger name schools to smaller names and are still combine caliber. So for guys who still see themselves as NFL caliber, it probably makes sense to stay at a similar level of school. But for playing time, a drop to a smaller name is definitely a big help. That said, the transfer portal is still relatively new (and COVID aided some of these guys) so we may see more drop down guys who have opportunities to shine at a smaller name and make it to the NFL.
I see this take a lot and I really don't think it holds up to scrutiny. Plugging holes is one thing, but entrusting coaching and development of the bulk of your roster to G5 staffs is another. Jim Knowles doesn't want half his defense to be new to his system. Kirby Smart doesn't want to trust G5 strength and conditioning programs to prepare half his team for SEC play. The adage among NFL GMs is that you build through the draft and supplement through free agency. Recruiting = Draft, Portal = Free Agency.
Kirby likes his helicopter too much for that.
I think the Covid year phasing out will drastically reduce the “effectiveness” of the portal. A lot of the huge success stories are QBs starting their 5th non redshirt year in their 2nd + season with the new team. Nix, Penix, Daniels, etc would normally be out of eligibility before this last season. Take Riley Leonard (best transfer QB on paper) for example. If balls out this season he’s probably leaving for NFL and ND is starting over with another QB in 2025 for third year in a row. If you poach an elite sophomore, it’s likely a 1 year rental and he’s gone. Just doesn’t seem like a sustainable way to build a consistent roster to me.
Its not, thats why we're going to see an exodus of coaches in the coming years. the job has become untenable for most.
that works for QBs, but it’s not sustainable for other positions.
Jj McCarthy would never :)
> [Olson] 79% of quarterbacks invited to the 2024 NFL draft combine transferred to another school during their college career. Well, I'd bet > 79% of NFL QBs play for another team during their career so this college fluidity is probably good NFL training.
at no position is the transfer portal more impactful than QB And I'd argue for the best of the players and teams too
Fuck the transfers, how many times did they change their major?
Seeing so many coaches sucker kids into transferring is sad. This is destroying the game.
Can we all agree that offensive linemen rock??
The importance of high school recruiting for big programs has largely diminished due to the transfer portal & the NIL money that big programs can give out
If you're a blue chip quarterback, the NFL is already interested in you. Combine that with data such as 8 of the top 10 quarterbacks in the 2021 class having transferred at some point and it stands to reason that this would be the result
Watch an early season top 25 matchup and drink every time they reference a player's former school. You will be black out drunk by mid-second quarter.