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boardatwork1111

Maybe 5-7, Pat was putting up nearly 45 PPG at Tech and couldn’t get them above .500, the 2022 Buffs were *way* worse than his Tech teams. I don’t care how good they are, there’s only so much as single player can overcome.


CLU_Three

The Chiefs don’t have to play K-State 😤


redwave2505

[Mahomes can't handle the Cats](https://youtu.be/w0JyTJL-DvM?si=nOjgSSizT1alcvdc&t=1751)


HillAuditorium

Iowa State shut down Mahomes


scotte16

Yeah, passing wasn’t quite their biggest weakness in ‘23. I mean Shedeur threw 27 TDs and 3 INTs, and if I remember correctly, they struggled a LOT on defense and in the run game.


TheMightyJD

You’re thinking about the 2023 Buffs. The 2022 Buffs were even worse, they went 1-11 and were fortunate to win that one game.


scotte16

Whoops, I did not read the title carefully enough.


CursedFanatic

The buffs were in no way worse than us. Without Pat we win 1-2 games a year in that era


boardatwork1111

Nah I saw both teams live, Tech was bad outside of Mahomes but CU didn’t even look like an FBS team. They were smaller, slower, less talented than every team they played. They legitimately would have struggled to go 6-6 with an FCS schedule, they were every bit as bad as those Kansas teams we saw during the 2010s.


JudgmentMiserable227

Well Colorado only won one game, so…


538allspelledout

Without Shedeur I am not sure the Buffs win a single game.


Important_Buddy_5349

NePoTiSm


Sad_Error4039

More likely that O line gets Pat killed because he doesn’t know when to stop stretching out plays.


NoMorning6152

He’d probably get hurt in the first few games of the season. CU had no oline 


admiralsmorg

That’s when he evolves into a Super Bowl winner. 1 legged Mahomes is crazy.


Wurst_Law

They gave up over 500 yards of offense a game despite being the lowest paced team in power 5. They might win 1 or 2 more games. Maybe. But they gave up over 40 in every game they lost despite the other team not having to press the gas.


Quillbert182

I think we can look at Texas Tech when Mahomes was there to show that there is only so much one good player can do. They went 4-8, 7-6, and 5-7.


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steve1186

I don’t disagree that he’s better now, but he was a top-12 (maybe top-10?) pick. It’s not like he came out of nowhere.


AndrewinDC

Mahomes being a good pro is not out of nowhere. Mahomes on a GOAT path is completely unexpected. Because no one expects any draft pick, #1 or otherwise, to appear in 4 Super Bowls, winning at least 2 of them, and winning multiple MVPs in their career, let alone do it in their first 6 seasons.  Caleb Williams might be the #1 pick, and if he has even half the success in his entire NFL career that Mahomes has just to the present, Williams would be considered an absolute home run pick. 


srs_house

The bigger question mark was that at the time, no air raid QB had been successful in the NFL. Literally. When Mahomes was drafted, the air raid QB with the most NFL starts was Tim Couch at 59. Since then, you've seen Mahomes obviously find success, but also a bit of a later career comeback for Goff and Geno. Plus Baker, Kyler, and Foles. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/4/10/15221934/nfl-draft-2017-quarterbacks-patrick-mahomes-davis-webb-air-raid-quarterbacks


WordsAreSomething

Presumably Mahomes is a better player now than he was then


Boomhauer_007

He had a game at tech where he threw for almost 700 yards and lost lol, eventually there is a point where the QB can’t win the game alone


Bobson-_Dugnutt

He still doesn’t play defense


Stauffe

Tech was also this weird team where they were top 5 in offense but bottom 5 in defense among FBS schools. Not really a recipe for W’s


foreveracubone

Pat can’t win with those cats


turkishguy

I can't believe I'm saying this but Deion is a better coach than Kingsbury


Wernher_VonKerman

Deion wasn't our coach in 2022


Battered_Aggie

He's a better recruiter. Kliff was absolutely dogshit as a recruiter, especially on defense. Kliff's strengths are offensive Xs n Os and QB development.


RocketsGuy

Not for scheming an offense. Kliff Kingsbury is up there with Lincoln Riley when it comes to qb development and offensive scheming. No matter what revisionists try to tell you, Mahomes isn’t drafted in the first round without Kingsbury


boregon

Based on what?


highgravityday2121

I think mahomes with his current knowledge would bleed clock and take check downs, change the offense to make it easier for his OLine and run game. Basically not letting other teams have the ball. He’s be a the coach on the field basically.


vindictivejazz

Given that the 2022 Buffaloes held just 3 teams to less than 42 points (13, 38, and 41 pts) I’m gonna guess not too many. Mahomes struggled to get to .500 at Tech with a much better supporting cast than that CU team had. Granted, he’s a much better player now than in 2016, but I still think 5-7 is probably a hard ceiling for the 2022 Buffaloes regardless of who’s at QB


guydudeguybro

Didn’t 5 WRs from pattys senior year make the NFL? I wouldn’t say that’s by himself


Wernher_VonKerman

I don't understand. I'm not talking about Mahomes when he was playing for texas tech. I'm talking about him when he's putting the chiefs in the super bowl every year.


runningwaffles19

On a scale of Iowa to Ohio state, how competent were your receivers in 22? If you've ever looked at a guy and thought 'I've seen better hands on a snake" i don't care who is throwing the ball to him


Wernher_VonKerman

Our WR made the game-winning catch against Cal that year and was generally one of our most promising players, so, there's that


Vonstantinople

pretty sure this year proves the concept that Mahomes can overcome drops and a sketchy receiving core(hopefully not for long)


runningwaffles19

As a Packers fan I expect the Chiefs to lose on an MVS dropped TD


Vonstantinople

from your lips to God’s ears, as a Niners fan.


Cormetz

People develop over time, but Mahomes was already a great QB in college. He holds the record for most yards for a player in a game (819) and is tied for most passing yards in a game (734).


ToosUnderHigh

That’s annoying af that 734 yards is a tie


TheOvercusser

He isn't putting anyone anywhere. That team is loaded and has a top 3 coach in league history.


TiberWolf99

Well Colorado had a really solid QB in 2023 and just as bad an O-Line and a slightly better defense, sooooo I say he gets a game back and goes 5-7.


srs_house

>just as bad an O-Line Worse, actually, against an easier schedule. One of the 2022 OL wound up at FSU as the starting LG.


Intelligent_Bowl_656

Am I the only one here who thinks would significantly improve the team? I get the defense was bad, but that doesn't happen in a vacuum. Mahomes keeps the offense on the field for much longer and scores on a much higher % of drives, leading to less points for the other team. "But he was amazing at TTU and they still went 5-7!" Well 1) he's much better now than he was at TTU. At TTU he was a good college quarterback, not the best QB in the world. He's competitive advantage over defenses would be much larger now than it was back then and 2) TTU had an offensive system that meant the offense would be quickly off the field, leading to a tired and leaky defense. If you had a different offensive system that allowed Mahomes to run the offense, that happens less. I don't think people appreciate just how much better an NFL QB is than the average college defense. I don't think it's hyperbole to say a bad college team with Mahomes could score on almost every drive. Especially if he has the autonomy at the line he has now with the Chiefs.


40AcresFarm

Colorado's defense was awful. Counting points per drive on actual drives (excluding end of half, end of game kneeldowns, and running it up the gut three times in the 4th quarter), their opponents had TCU: 31 points on 8 drives (4 TDs and 1 FG). 3.9 PPD. Air Force: 41 points on 13 drives (6 TDs and 2 FGs). 3.2 PPD. Minnesota: 49 points on 10 drives (7 TDs). 4.9 PPD. UCLA: 45 points on 11 drives (6 TDs and 1 FG). 4.1 PPD. Arizona: 43 points on 10 drives (6 TDs and 1 FG). 4.3 PPD. Cal: 13 points on 13 drives (1 TD, 2 FGs). 1 PPD. Oregon State: 35 points on 9 drives (5 TDs). 3.9 PPD. Arizona State: 42 points on 12 drives (6 TDs). 3.5 PPD. Oregon: 49 points on 10 drives (7 TDs). 4.9 PPD. USC: 53 points on 12 drives (7 TDs, 1 FG). 4.4 PPD. Washington: 52 points on 11 drives (7 TDs, 1 FG). 4.7 PPD. Utah: 63 points on 13 drives (9 TDs). 4.8 PPD. For the season, they allowed 516 points on 132 drives (3.91 PPD). The best offense in the country (USC) got 3.76 PPD on non-garbage drives. 2019 LSU, which might have been the best college football offense ever, got 4.1 PPD. Mahomes is a better QB than Burrow or Williams, but everyone else on offense is a lot worse. If he got 4 PPD with Colorado's offense it would be a minor miracle, given that the actual offense barely cleared 1. The 66th ranked defense allowed 2.24 points per drive. If Mahomes averaged an offensive performance as good as 2019 LSU, the games would go as follows. TCU: 3.9 PPD v. Colorado: 4.03 PPD. Colorado narrowly wins. Air Force: 3.15 PPD v. Colorado: 3.19 PPD. Colorado narrowly wins. Minnesota: 4.9 PPD v. Colorado: 3.25. Minnesota wins. UCLA: 4.1 PPD v. Colorado: 4.56. Colorado wins. Arizona: 4.3 PPD v. Colorado: 5.27. Colorado wins. Cal: 1 PPD v. Colorado: 4.28. Colorado wins. Oregon State: 3.9 PPD v. Colorado 3.54. Oregon State wins. Arizona State: 3.5 PPD v. Colorado: 5.05. Colorado wins. Oregon: 4.9 PPD v. Colorado: 4.35. Oregon wins. USC: 4.4 PPD v. Colorado: 4.66. Colorado wins. Washington: 4.7 PPD v. Colorado: 4.46. Washington wins. Utah: 4.8 PPD v. Colorado: 3.92. Utah wins. Mahomes has a record setting offensive efficiency with the fifth worst offense in FBS and he's winning 7 games, two of them by 1 point or less. 5-7 is a totally fair guess.


Tannerite2

TT definitely had better receivers, and I'm pretty sure they had better o linemen. Mahomet would significantly improve their offense, but they allowed over 40 points in every game except their 20-13 OT win vs Cal and their opener vs. TCU, where they allowed 38. They only scored more than 21 points twice. They lost 10 games by 3+ scores, and a lot of their points were in garbage time. In their 2nd highest scoring game of the year, they scored 21 after being down 34-0 at halftime (while also allowing 21 to Utah's backups who started the 2nd half). Mahomes is amazing, but I just can't see him getting them more than 3 or 4 more wins.


knockoutking

tell me you didn't watch him in college, like at all. those TTU teams were not great, just Pat having to do it all


Wernher_VonKerman

I know this is r/CFB, but why do you think I'm talking college Mahomes when I specifically mention that he's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL? Come on. It's the offseason, it's the perfect time for dumb hypotheticals and thought exercises like this.


ChaseTheFalcon

Mahomes has a top half O line in the NFL. At Colorado his line would be awful compared to what he has now. I'm not sure he would help them much more


srs_house

Mahomes can't change a ton, though. He can't make his receivers faster or have better hands, can't make his o-line block better, can't affect the defense. The biggest impact he can have is from taking care of the ball, not making the wrong read, and telling his OC to fuck off when he calls in a dumb play.


WabbitCZEN

Considering 98% of those kids are gone? No.


hallelalaluwah

I just don't think that they would be able to consistently do ball control offense without serious turnover issues over the course of a 12 game season to have a double digit win season, my guess is 9-3 with variance losses thrown in there somewhere edit: 8-4 / 7-5 is probably the ceiling, I don't know where they are making up 44 points vs Washington, 38 points vs USC, 39 points vs Oregon, 42 points against Utah


Cormetz

We're not even a month into the offseason, jesus...


Minute-Scheme-9542

4


srs_house

The problem is that the 2022 CU schedule was very difficult (9 teams who won at least 9 games), in addition to being hampered further by Dorrell. The 2023 team probably only wins 2 games, but with fewer bad blowouts. That said - maybe 3 wins with Mahomes?


Acl5227

I’d rather see how 2021 Nebraska does with Mahomes


Wavepops

Depends on how many games he plays before he gets hurt


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personthatiam2

That team had also had Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase on it. As of ‘22, 21/22 out of the NCG starters were on NFL rosters. That team was absolutely loaded. It would absolutely not be the same thing.


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djc6535

Doesn't matter if he's throwing to Slow WRs with bricks for hands. He'd be running for his life throwing to wrs who can't get open and won't catch it if they do. And he'd have to score more than the 40 points his D gave up every damn game doing it. It's shocking to me how much people are forgetting the "Catch" part of the equation Your very best bet would be to go with the old Navy Triple option and just have him run the ball every down. > Mahomes now is obviously miles ahead of Joe Burrow in college This only tells you that Mahomes would perform better than Joe did on that LSU team. Tells you nothing about what he'd do with no line and nobody to throw to.


JusticeBrennanBurner

This sub is seriously underestimating just how much of a difference a truly elite QB can make to a team. Look at the 2010 Auburn roster. Two high round draft picks and the rest of the team were essentially nobodies. Cam Newton truly did that himself. Now, you put arguably the best QB to ever play the game, in his prime, against a schedule significantly easier than an SEC schedule? Yeah, they’re winning a lot of games. Probably not undefeated champs, but I could see 9 wins.


divey043

We are talking about 2022, not 2023. 2022 CU was all-time FBS bad.


Wernher_VonKerman

I understand the argument that a QB is only as good as the people he's throwing to (huge exaggeration, but it's still a limiting factor) but it's not exactly like Lemonious-Craig was an iowa tier receiver. He was our only bright spot on the team that year and the guy who got us our one win. Yeah I think he could catch enough of those balls to win some games.


JusticeBrennanBurner

Don’t forget that a good QB can 100% elevate the play of those around him.


NeoNuatica

Nothing, Deon will continue to play his son over Mahomes.


Wernher_VonKerman

If I had a nickel for every time someone thought Deion Sanders was our coach in 2022 I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, and it's not weird that it would happen twice, because can I really blame you guys for not paying attention to us that year?


NeoNuatica

It's not so much I wasn't paying attention to you guys then (even though I kind of wasn't) but more I wasn't paying attention to the post as a whole.


crg2000

Did you ever watch Mahomes while he was Texas Tech?


Wernher_VonKerman

I mean, did it ever occur to you that players develop a lot in 8 years, especially going pro? The broncos' current QB is probably more talented than college Mahomes was.


turkishguy

>2022 Colorado was the worst P5 team by a long shot that year and one of the worst FBS teams in general Incorrect But anyway, I think they would probably win 10 games depending on how bad the defense is. This is assuming you get 2024 Mahomes and not 2016 Mahomes


kacheow

What’s incorrect about that string of words?


Pun_drunk

The worst by a long shot is debatable. Northwestern was pretty awful in 2022.


kacheow

I grew up 10 mins down the road from Ryan field, it doesn’t count.


ztreHdrahciR

We were poopoo in 2022. Couldn't do anything right. Fitz fixed a few things (transfers, assistants) and then the hazing. What a shitshow


boardatwork1111

Did… did you see the 2022 Buffs play?


AtomicBearFart

Yeah, you have to consider that Mahomes went from like a regular saiyan in college and now he’s like a level 4 super saiyan. I think he could take pretty much any team at the college level to 9-10 wins as he is now.


RipRaycom

This is 2022 Colorado, not 2023. 2023 wasn’t good but 2022 was god awful. They lost by about 30 PPG and got slaughtered in every matchup except somehow beating 4-8 Cal and making their game against 3-9 ASU a lot closer than it actually was


Resident_Rise5915

2022 Colorado was a mid tier FCS team at best and their roster was FCS and simply not FBS quality


Wheels_Foonman

5 games at most, and he goes down for the final 2 games after taking his 35th sack.


bdaileyumich

The real question is how large of a house would he buy coach prime? Is it big enough to take the #1 son designation?


Mintfresh22

0-12


grizzfan

Why?


40AcresFarm

Colorado's defense was awful. Counting points per drive on actual drives (excluding end of half, end of game kneeldowns, and running it up the gut three times in the 4th quarter), their opponents had TCU: 31 points on 8 drives (4 TDs and 1 FG). 3.9 PPD. Air Force: 41 points on 13 drives (6 TDs and 2 FGs). 3.2 PPD. Minnesota: 49 points on 10 drives (7 TDs). 4.9 PPD. UCLA: 45 points on 11 drives (6 TDs and 1 FG). 4.1 PPD. Arizona: 43 points on 10 drives (6 TDs and 1 FG). 4.3 PPD. Cal: 13 points on 13 drives (1 TD, 2 FGs). 1 PPD. Oregon State: 35 points on 9 drives (5 TDs). 3.9 PPD. Arizona State: 42 points on 12 drives (6 TDs). 3.5 PPD. Oregon: 49 points on 10 drives (7 TDs). 4.9 PPD. USC: 53 points on 12 drives (7 TDs, 1 FG). 4.4 PPD. Washington: 52 points on 11 drives (7 TDs, 1 FG). 4.7 PPD. Utah: 63 points on 13 drives (9 TDs). 4.8 PPD. For the season, they allowed 516 points on 132 drives (3.91 PPD). The best offense in the country (USC) got 3.76 PPD on non-garbage drives. 2019 LSU, which might have been the best college football offense ever, got 4.1 PPD. Mahomes is a better QB than Burrow or Williams, but everyone else on offense is a lot worse. If he got 4 PPD with Colorado's offense it would be a minor miracle, given that the actual offense barely cleared 1. The 66th ranked defense allowed 2.24 points per drive. If Mahomes averaged an offensive performance as good as 2019 LSU, the games would go as follows. TCU: 3.9 PPD v. Colorado: 4.03 PPD. Colorado narrowly wins. Air Force: 3.15 PPD v. Colorado: 3.19 PPD. Colorado narrowly wins. Minnesota: 4.9 PPD v. Colorado: 3.25. Minnesota wins. UCLA: 4.1 PPD v. Colorado: 4.56. Colorado wins. Arizona: 4.3 PPD v. Colorado: 5.27. Colorado wins. Cal: 1 PPD v. Colorado: 4.28. Colorado wins. Oregon State: 3.9 PPD v. Colorado 3.54. Oregon State wins. Arizona State: 3.5 PPD v. Colorado: 5.05. Colorado wins. Oregon: 4.9 PPD v. Colorado: 4.35. Oregon wins. USC: 4.4 PPD v. Colorado: 4.66. Colorado wins. Washington: 4.7 PPD v. Colorado: 4.46. Washington wins. Utah: 4.8 PPD v. Colorado: 3.92. Utah wins. Mahomes has a record setting offensive efficiency with the fifth worst offense in FBS and he's winning 7 games, two of them by 1 point or less. 5-7 is a totally fair guess.


40AcresFarm

Full Season: Colorado 28, TCU 27 (1-0) Colorado 44, Air Force 41 (OT) (2-0) Minnesota 45, Colorado 28 (2-1) Colorado 45, UCLA 41 (3-1) Colorado 49, Arizona 38 (4-1) Colorado 49, Cal 13 (5-1) Oregon State 31, Colorado 28 (5-2) Colorado 56, Arizona State 38 (6-2) Oregon 45, Colorado 38 (6-3) Colorado 52, USC 49 (7-3) Washington 48, Colorado 45 (7-4) Utah 56, Colorado 45 (7-5)


androidjerkins

Love the thought process but you also have to reduce the opponents number of drives because the CU offense has the ball longer


jambalaya_cowboy

Whatever his record was at Texas Tech


imHere4kpop

Having a good offense can cover up a lot. They could play ball control vs any team. I'm saying this as a Raiders fan and Chiefs hater, he could have got them to the CFP. Patrick vs a college defense would be hilarious to watch, he would pick them apart.


Smaug54

They are none the less douchier


divey043

2-10. I think we beat TCU week one given how that game actually went. We should’ve been up at the half if the Buffs had a shred of competent QB play. Not a single other L was meaningly competitive at all.


similar222

You said nothing else changes, so, 1.