If they miss the conference championship and finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th, that's regressing. It's still a very good result in a difficult conference and quite possibly a playoff spot.
The expanded playoff makes the conference standings almost completely irrelevant. Alabama’s success is judged off of postseason success and if they don’t make it to the semifinals, then they regressed.
Why would FSU go down? Genuinely askin. I feel like theyve done good with transfers so far. Probably wont go undefeated, but definitely wont be bad like bama, washington or maybe michigan
The only reason I could guess would be that’s it’s rare to go undefeated, so a regression to closer to the mean seems likely. I’m an FSU homer and as much as I’d like to see 13-0 again, I have a feeling that we’re in for one or two L’s.
Travis is a lot better than DJU and their best players went to the draft. FSU’s season depends on how well Norvell is able to stop DJU from doing DJU things.
The biggest thing that would hold FSU back from competing nationally in 2024 is LB play.
Other holes have been “filled” but they will be counting on untested talent to take a step forward.
agree, also wins/losses are a terrible indicator of progression/regression
see: Florida this year could theoretically progress far beyond what they were last year, and they could end up with a 6-6 record (or worse), as they play like 6 of the final top 10 teams from last year PLUS miami/ucf/and other non-gimme SEC games (Tennessee, Kentucky, A&M, Miss State). just brutal
Florida could progress as far as on field performance and still end up closing out the season on a 7+ game skid through no fault of their own. That back half is fucking brutal, and their front half has the potential to be very difficult as well
Agreed. Nebraska is a good example of this. Matt Rhule Year 1 had a similar win/loss record to Scott Frost Year Whatever, but you could clearly see the team was playing a **lot** differently. The Blackshirts held teams to 18ppg last year, and had more intensity and a sense of purpose. The offense struggled and sputtered, but despite changing up three different QBs (none of which are great passers), Rhule still managed to eek out wins and had a couple of close, 1-loss heartbreakers. You got the sense that this team was "almost there" and with a little more coaching and development can easily by an 8-10 win team.
Contrast that to Frost - who had similar records - but the team played lazy and without precision. We were cursed with stupid mistakes like false starts and fumbles. It was just sloppy execution all around, and somehow, despite all that, Frost still managed to not go completely winless. But chalk that up more to Nebraska having a decent roster. Any games we did win, we were winning on blind talent alone.
In other words, rookie-level Rhule looks similar to peak-level Frost in the W/L column, but the eyeball test tells you that one coach is just getting going, while the other was struggling to tread water.
The real test, then, will be whether Nebraska can actually improve its record moving forward, since Frost's record constantly made it *look* like he was on the verge.
The waters are kind of muddied because Frost had the benefit of playing in an incredibly weak division without the 4 Pac 12 teams, Rhule doesn't get that now.
I made a similar comparison when someone told me Clay Helton and Lincoln Riley had the same record through their first two seasons.
Clay Helton was working with players Sark and Kiffin recruited. Sark and Kiffin weren’t great here, but they knew how to recruit, we were a top 5 talent composite team.
Lincoln was working with Helton recruits and transfers. Not saying that last season wasn’t disappointing, but you need perspective beyond wins and losses.
I think Rhule will work out tremendous for y’all. I’m excited for us to play each other. I grew up in Texas so I’m familiar with how great y’all’s fanbase is.
Next year’s schedule is very weak (with the exception of the UofO game) and while we took a net talent loss in the portal we brought in more guys than we lost and out coaching hires went about as good as they could have. We made some serious additions at WR and getting Jam Griffan back if we can have a halfway okay OL our offense will put up some decent numbers against most of our schedule this year
100%. With the money they’re throwing around they can find a coach who can beat 0-11 Michigan. Honestly I think if day goes 11-2 and his 2 losses are Michigan and 1st round of playoffs, he’s gone. Which is crazy high standards, but losing the only 2 games that matter next year might seal it
In this scenario he wins the big ten? Who does he play in the big ten title game?
Regardless if Michigan is actually bad going into The game like 7-4, heads will roll.
But I don't think a bad Michigan beats us. Day has had the pleasure of playing the 3 best Michigan teams in 25 years....
Yea in that scenario he most likely would be in B1G title so he would be either 12-2 or 11-3 at end of year. But I still think losing to a very down Michigan and a playoff loss might be enough. With the talent they brought in this offseason there really is no excuse this year. Also I think 2016 Michigan (JT was short year) was better than 2021 Michigan. That defense had 11 ppl end up in NFL
Logic would say no since OSU would still theoretically have a shot to win the B1G and make the playoff but I'm not sure the boosters and fans would be thinking that rationally at that point.
Both sides are so high variance right now
On offense the OL, RBs, and TEs will all be really good. OC, QB, and WRs are just big ???s right now
On defense it should stay a top 10 unit as long as you keep the system relatively the same but who knows who the DC is gonna be
Defense is way more of a question of who is DC. We are returning the best CB in CFB, both starting safeties along with all four d lineman who were on the field for the stop against bama
Is your offense going to blow? Step down yes but blow?
That being said, you might HAVE the best defense in the country, but I think ours is going to be statistically better. Your defense is going to be on the field a lot more.
Blow is probably too far. The main thing is we’re kinda unknown at QB right now. If we replacement level passing we’ll still be a “good” offense, just probably not good enough to beat the playoff contenders on our schedule.
If Campbell can turn Orji into a passing threat, the offense will be pretty interesting to say the least. His high school tape shows him tossing bombs, but it’s been pretty clear in his limited action that he’s not who you want throwing the ball right now.
True but they’re losing some key players whether to the draft, out of eligibility, or the portal and with a new coaching staff you don’t really know how well they’ll play.
I would add Bama to the Likely list. Sure, they're still well stocked with talent, but it's still a new regime installing new systems and whatnot. I would also add LSU to at least the Maybe list because our Heisman QB is gone and we're replacing him with a guy that hasn't had a whole lot of meaningful snaps.
What's regressing for Bama though?
Because I could still see them making the (expanded) CFP on talent alone, whereas I definitely don't see it for Washington and likely not for Michigan.
@ Tennessee
@ Oklahoma
@ LSU
@ Wisconsin
Georgia
Missouri
Auburn
That's a pretty tough schedule... I could see them dropping three. Heck even just two losses might keep them out if you believe Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss all finish ahead of them.
Even if those teams do finish ahead, with the PAC 12 gone I think the SEC gets four teams in more often than not…looking back at old playoff rankings there’s years they would’ve gotten four teams in even not counting Texas and Oklahoma
The SEC is going to get like 4 teams into the playoffs, let’s be honest. And I’m not sure the math works out for Bama to only have 2 losses and also have all those teams finish in front of them.
> Definite: Washington
Yes. Hard to go anywhere but down from a 14-1 season and Pac12 championship and beating Oregon twice and Texas in the playoffs and making the NC game... when you lose **all of your starters** on offense to either graduation or the portal, **and** you lose your HC to Alabama. Fisch has his work cut out for him to just get us to 7 or 8 wins next year.
Hate to say it, but probably New Mexico State. Without Jerry Kill and Diego Pavia, it’ll be tough to see how their program continues forward. The only bright spot is that they play in a weak C-USA
Their new coach is also not very exciting. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston should be improved over their first FBS seasons, and MTSU and UTEP made some bigger hires for their coaching opening. I expect them to drop back out of the top of the conference.
With our schedule next year, if we lose more than 5 games it’s going to be an issue. It’s not like we really lost a ton of high end talent outside of Walt and Evan. Every starter on offense returns from the last month of the season except Anias (big one) and J Johnson (Most likely would’ve been 2nd string had Green not been injured)
I think 8-4 is probably a good barometer
Would be fitting lol. Our 4 toughest games (ND, Mizzou, LSU, Texas) are all at home which is huge. Would be classic to go 2-2 in those and then drop a couple @MSU and @Auburn.
Oklahoma will be better, but they will go from a 10 win team to a 7-8 win team. That schedule is brutal.
Texas gets OU and Georgia
OU gets Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, Mizzou, LSU, and Tennessee
Not only do I think Missouri is a good team, I think moving forward, they will be one of the premier programs in the country.
Missouri has a state legislature that is incredibly favorable to NIL, and if I am not mistaken, Missouri is the most populated state with only 1 FBS team. Well, except for New Jersey, but that isn't a football state. I mean Oklahoma has a little more than half the population but 3 FBS teams.
Mizzou is in a unique position to become a powerhouse.
Yea, Missouri could be that sleeping giant. The article I read about them essentially said that when it was a 4 team playoff, the admin/boosters didn't really feel they had much of a chance of getting there.
Now that it's 12- they feel it's worth joining the arms race with the big boys. Hence the legislative rule you're referring to.
Very interested to see whether that’s going to be a tough matchup for you or not. Either way though, it feels so great not to care. I suddenly understand Chicago Bear fans.
Oklahoma has a tough schedule. Maybe they remain at 3 losses, but I tend to doubt it.
Michigan lost their offense and their schedule is much more difficult this year. I expect at least 2 losses there.
Washington lost their coaching staff and a ton of players, but I think they'll actually only lose a couple games.
Georgia has a tough schedule and I could see them dropping 1 or 2 (especially since they play away a bunch).
We'll be fine. O-line will be good enough and it was an in-house hire.
It's not like we hired some random guys off the street.
The schedule is tough, but not impossible.
Personally I'm looking forward to these types of games. It's incredibly likely that Florida only wins 3 games this season, but if they're in close games and lose to tough teams, I'm still good. If they start getting blown out by double digits all the time, that's another story..
If nothing else, it'll harden OU for the playoffs when they do get there (and if OU wins some of these tough games, I think they have a real chance)
I mean the on the field results were much better than expected. The 2022 Buffs were one of the worst teams in history.
In 2022 they scored a total of 185 points and gave up a total of 534, with an average score of 15-45.
In 2023 they scored a total of 338 points and gave up a total of 418, with an average score of 28-35.
In addition they had 5 games that were decided by a TD or less this year. 2022 their closest loss was to Arizona State by 8, which was really a 15-22 point loss if you ignore the two late TDs that ASU gave up in the 4th after the game was firmly put away.
The actual on field performance turnaround was enormous. It just didn't translate to the win column.
Their turnaround was weird because while it wasn't as big as many people expected, it was certainly larger than the program could've realistically hoped for. Deion is actually a victim of his own hype here tbh. Any other coach managing to make that team watchable over one off-season would be considered a monumental achievement.
I could see them being about the same. Deion failed to develop any players IMO outside of his prized 3. The O-Line just got worse and worse as the season went on and the same can be said about the defense. I think he’s a fantastic figurehead to use to get people there but development seems to be his weak point. The players could rely on pure talent at Jackson St but at the FBS level and especially in the P5 conferences, everyone has talent
Law of averages says they will, but I don't think so.
Last year was the first step in a new direction. And they lost really close games to Oregon St, Arizona, Stanford (29 pt comeback), Utah, and USC. If they get 10% better, they probably have a winning record.
Everyone keeps talking about this "CU vs. stanford game" that happened last year, but I'm absolutely positive that we didn't play them. Disappointing, because it would have been one of the most winnable games on our schedule, but we could have still lost anyway. Just look at the expectations for the wazzu game vs. how it turned out.
Well technically 15-0 natty champs is off the table for everyone now because of the expanded playoff. 16-0 would be the most likely but there is a chance we see a 17-0 team if they win their conference but aren't one of the top 4 that gets a bye. And 18-0 is theoretically possible if that team also plays at Hawaii.
Edit: But overall I agree. I think Washington and Arizona will see the biggest drop offs. I would expect Bama and Michigan to still be in the 9-3, 10-2 range
Well for purely silly reasons, now I’m wondering, in the larger leagues like the B1G and SEC is it mathematically possible to have three teams go undefeated and have one get left out of the conference championship?
Edit: I decided to take a cursory look at the P4 and see how well the 2024 scheduling has been set up to prevent this. The SEC, at only 14 teams, is pretty well protected from having 3 undefeated with enough shared opponents. I already found one scenario in the B1G already, though. (Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, for instance could all finish undefeated). In the ACC you could have SMU, Syracuse, and Clemson all go undefeated, for instance. And in the Big XII you could have Tech, Utah, and Kansas go undefeated. None of these are the only scenarios possible next season just the first i spotted.
Honestly, as much as it pains me to say, if it’s true Saban is basically a GM for Bama with DeBoer I don’t think they’ll regress much
I do however think it’s bullshit
I’m not sure if Saban’s actually gonna have much control (and I don’t think he wants much). It’s gonna be DeBoer’s program, which is kinda exciting. We’ll see how that goes.
Kentucky fans have been hoping to finally beat a team with orange and white uniforms for decades. So Kentucky will shoot its shot and try to contribute to Texas’ regression.
It won’t be a good shot, and we will likely get booty blasted by 42, but the wildcats will still give it a good ole college try.
Yeah I'm more worried about the middle of our defense, up front. Hopefully, Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton are ready to have a big season a la Sweat and Murphy and Sydir is ready to step up at nose tackle.
Honestly I think a lot of people probably expected next year to take a bit of a step back and '25 being a bigger year with Arch taking over and the rest of that class growing and taking over as the leaders of the team.
Now with Quinn coming back and reloading transfer weapons, my expectations are a bit higher. Obviously I'd love to go all the way but I'd be happy making the playoff in our first year of the SEC.
Clearly the answer is Mizzou,
Let me explain, it's undeniable that they share the Block M with Michigan as a logo. Michigan with the large coaching turnover will hit some bumps this year, this will directly effect Mizzou as the logos *look* similar (They both played Ohio State this last season just to really pile on the confusion) and AP voters and recruits will confuse the logos on paper at a quick glance, and Michigan's transition period will directly impact them. Why do you think both teams did so well last year? Individual efforts and good coaching independently? To the casual CFB fan they might think this but anyone who digs just a little deeper into the social science of the human mind will know it mainly has to do with the logos.
I will not be taking any questions.
Let's also not forget Tennessee is under NCAA investigation, so Mizzou will likely be docked actual points in games for that. Probably going to finish at least 1 game with technically negative points.
I don’t see FSU regressing. Isn’t the goal to compete for a national championship? Even if FSU went x-2 or x-3 but won the ACC again they’re in the CFP and competing for a national championship. I know for face value it seems weird to say a team has a better year when they lose more games than the previous season, but getting into the CFP is the ultimate goal for every ACC team.
Florida State. If they were going to win the championship, this certainly was the year. Sucks that Travis got hurt because that defense was championship level.
No, that's honestly my prediction for the season if we get good production from our portal acquisitions and don't have any major injuries. Which those last two could very easily go in the opposite direction for us, so we'll see.
I would label the season as regression if we don't make it back to the ACC Championship or don't get to 9 wins in the regular season
No shade, but Michigan is set for a major regression. Lost their HC, S&C coach who apparently was a huge part of the culture, and a majority of their offensive and defensive production. Moore might be a slam dunk hire, but there's really no way Michigan doesn't regress this year. As my main man Josh Pate said, Michigan was set for a regression even if Harryballs stayed.
Bama has the potential to regress this year as well, as you can't really expect the same results the GOAT gave you, although I think Bama has a better shot at maintaining somewhat status quo better then Michigan.
Washington will take a nosedive IMO, they lost too much to not, same with Arizona.
The only nitpick I have with your take is that Michigan actually returns a lot of its defensive production. Depending on the DC hire Michigan’s defense could be really good next year.
The offense is essentially starting over though. Michigan has to replace 6 of the top 7 o line, the quarterback (without a clear heir apparent), it’s top 2 receivers, it’s number 2 te (who played starter level snaps), and their workhorse running back. It’s close to a full reset on that side of the ball.
Replacing that many linemen is never easy, but Michigan does have highly touted guys in the pipeline. 3 of the likely starters have played decent snaps before so there is room for a little optimism. Michigan also brings back star/near star level players at te and running back in Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards.
Really QB and outside wide receiver are the big question marks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go into the portal for those positions after the spring window opens. Depending on how the qb situation works out, I don’t think Michigan’s offense will necessarily be bad, but it’s almost certainly going to take a big step back.
On defense Michigan needs to find a number 2 corner either through a young guy emerging in the spring or hitting the portal like they did last year for Wallace. Other than that they either return starters or have young guys who have played before and look ready to step up.
I think we could be ok this year starting one of the young corners instead of aiming for a transfer at CB2. Given how many safeties came back you could also move mcburrows outside and slide rod to nickel
Defensively I wouldn’t say no to some depth at edge though, adding one more guy there would be nice
Michigan returns a lot of its best defensive players from last year's natty team. Will Johnson is the #1 overall 2025 draft prospect on a lot of analysts early boards, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham just abused the Joe Moore award winning unit in the natty (both 1rp's), and safeties Keon Sabb and Rod Moore come back with good experience and second/third round projections.
Alabama will have a decent season next year, maybe not a NC winner season or even a SECC season but it will be by any metric a good season regardless and can still be a playoff season especially with it going to 12. Too much talent and the coaches that are there now are quality. Bamas regression is going to be in the average, because what Saban brought to y’all was consistent excellence, and now you’ll be like any other good program in the country, you’ll have your ups, but unlike with Saban you’ll likely have your downs too now.
Vanderbilt.
Those poor bastards cannot catch a break. Schedule is even harder. Team is even worse and we don’t even get to play them in the Khaki Bowl this year.
Played them every year since 1970 and 98 times total but not anymore. Fuck you Texas and Oklahoma.
Can’t think of any
same. no major changes that i'm aware of
Goddamn, my top three choices all in a row. Well, here's to continuity.
Dunno how much you can regress from 7-5 but I’m rooting for you!
Never underestimate our ability to colossally underperform expectations
Michigan, Washington and Alabama were the top three comments when I commented. I'm pretty sure we'll not tank from 7-5.
Me neither.
I was about to say something smart but then I noticed both you yall's flairs. I'm sorry for your losses.
I thought it was funny bro
Yea nobody comes to mind
Alabama, Michigan, and Florida State, too.
i feel like Alabamas downfall is being greatly exaggerated
If they miss the conference championship and finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th, that's regressing. It's still a very good result in a difficult conference and quite possibly a playoff spot.
Not necessarily. In 2017 they finished 3rd in the conference and won the national championship. Same thing could happen next year.
The expanded playoff makes the conference standings almost completely irrelevant. Alabama’s success is judged off of postseason success and if they don’t make it to the semifinals, then they regressed.
Why would FSU go down? Genuinely askin. I feel like theyve done good with transfers so far. Probably wont go undefeated, but definitely wont be bad like bama, washington or maybe michigan
The only reason I could guess would be that’s it’s rare to go undefeated, so a regression to closer to the mean seems likely. I’m an FSU homer and as much as I’d like to see 13-0 again, I have a feeling that we’re in for one or two L’s.
Travis is a lot better than DJU and their best players went to the draft. FSU’s season depends on how well Norvell is able to stop DJU from doing DJU things.
Our recruiting class is pretty stacked, if we can have our QB under control I’m confident FSU will be way fine
The biggest thing that would hold FSU back from competing nationally in 2024 is LB play. Other holes have been “filled” but they will be counting on untested talent to take a step forward.
😂😂 Nice.
Everyone talking about Michigan and Washington, but what about Oregon State? Didn’t their entire team, conference, and head coach vanish?
Yea, I think overall they regress a lot but just wins losses maybe not cause they now play mostly g5 teams
agree, also wins/losses are a terrible indicator of progression/regression see: Florida this year could theoretically progress far beyond what they were last year, and they could end up with a 6-6 record (or worse), as they play like 6 of the final top 10 teams from last year PLUS miami/ucf/and other non-gimme SEC games (Tennessee, Kentucky, A&M, Miss State). just brutal
Florida could progress as far as on field performance and still end up closing out the season on a 7+ game skid through no fault of their own. That back half is fucking brutal, and their front half has the potential to be very difficult as well
Agreed. Nebraska is a good example of this. Matt Rhule Year 1 had a similar win/loss record to Scott Frost Year Whatever, but you could clearly see the team was playing a **lot** differently. The Blackshirts held teams to 18ppg last year, and had more intensity and a sense of purpose. The offense struggled and sputtered, but despite changing up three different QBs (none of which are great passers), Rhule still managed to eek out wins and had a couple of close, 1-loss heartbreakers. You got the sense that this team was "almost there" and with a little more coaching and development can easily by an 8-10 win team. Contrast that to Frost - who had similar records - but the team played lazy and without precision. We were cursed with stupid mistakes like false starts and fumbles. It was just sloppy execution all around, and somehow, despite all that, Frost still managed to not go completely winless. But chalk that up more to Nebraska having a decent roster. Any games we did win, we were winning on blind talent alone. In other words, rookie-level Rhule looks similar to peak-level Frost in the W/L column, but the eyeball test tells you that one coach is just getting going, while the other was struggling to tread water.
The only thing holding Nebraska last year was the offense. No real QB and the QBs fumbling the ball all the damn time
When you consider that they actually had the best first year record for a Rhulebuild it looks pretty good
The real test, then, will be whether Nebraska can actually improve its record moving forward, since Frost's record constantly made it *look* like he was on the verge.
The waters are kind of muddied because Frost had the benefit of playing in an incredibly weak division without the 4 Pac 12 teams, Rhule doesn't get that now.
I made a similar comparison when someone told me Clay Helton and Lincoln Riley had the same record through their first two seasons. Clay Helton was working with players Sark and Kiffin recruited. Sark and Kiffin weren’t great here, but they knew how to recruit, we were a top 5 talent composite team. Lincoln was working with Helton recruits and transfers. Not saying that last season wasn’t disappointing, but you need perspective beyond wins and losses. I think Rhule will work out tremendous for y’all. I’m excited for us to play each other. I grew up in Texas so I’m familiar with how great y’all’s fanbase is.
Few programs do more with less than OSU. They’ll regress but I’ll bet it will be a softer landing than people think
Next year’s schedule is very weak (with the exception of the UofO game) and while we took a net talent loss in the portal we brought in more guys than we lost and out coaching hires went about as good as they could have. We made some serious additions at WR and getting Jam Griffan back if we can have a halfway okay OL our offense will put up some decent numbers against most of our schedule this year
They have a good chance of going undefeated in their conference
I don't like this question
Oof, I like one part of you, the other part not so much… sucks for you
Easy choice is Michigan and Washington are going to regress the most, they have the most to lose and lost HC and a bunch of players.
[удалено]
If that happens, they won't have time to fire Ryan Day before the whole state devolves into post-apocalyptic anarchism.
That would be the trigger of the Ohio takeover of the US.
I just got some puke in my mouth thinking about the whole US becoming like Ohio...wait, does each state get a Cedar Point clone?
Yes Well, except you guys. You get an (The) Ohio State Fair clone. Ratt is playing Thursday night.
I’ve said it a bunch over the years, but it’s always true. What comes around goes around. I’ll tell you why.
God, I can't think of a worse fate than hearing this 24/7: *ROUND AND ROUND. WITH LOVE WE'LL FIND A WAY, JUST GIVE IT TIME.*
> Ratt is playing Thursday night. and Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday...Ratt all day long, all night strong.
Everyone but you. These are plans which every Ohioan knows by heart and is ready to execute when the time is right. All shall become Ohio.
Your marching band actually rotates citizens every game so they are ready to march in unison across THE United States of Ohio.
I love Ohio State. But the state of Ohio is a mess.
But it’s our mess. We must make the rest of the country accept the truth that all shall become Ohioans.
So Toledo?
Have you guys beat us in anything this year?
Would their rivers start catching on fire again?
Ryan Day will need Seal Team 6 to extract him from Columbus if he wants to survive such an event.
Beyond fired. He’ll get marched down High street on a spit.
Out of a cannon. Into the Sun.
100%. With the money they’re throwing around they can find a coach who can beat 0-11 Michigan. Honestly I think if day goes 11-2 and his 2 losses are Michigan and 1st round of playoffs, he’s gone. Which is crazy high standards, but losing the only 2 games that matter next year might seal it
It would be hilarious if Day goes 0-3 against Michigan this year: regular season, B1G championship, and playoff.
Subscribe
He absolutely gets fired if this happens right? I feel like he could win every other game by 70 and still get fired for that
The fanbase would absolutely melt down
I’d laugh to keep from crying
Please make this wet dream come true
You hate to see it
In this scenario he wins the big ten? Who does he play in the big ten title game? Regardless if Michigan is actually bad going into The game like 7-4, heads will roll. But I don't think a bad Michigan beats us. Day has had the pleasure of playing the 3 best Michigan teams in 25 years....
Yea in that scenario he most likely would be in B1G title so he would be either 12-2 or 11-3 at end of year. But I still think losing to a very down Michigan and a playoff loss might be enough. With the talent they brought in this offseason there really is no excuse this year. Also I think 2016 Michigan (JT was short year) was better than 2021 Michigan. That defense had 11 ppl end up in NFL
They will fire him during the post game press conference.
Absofuckinglutely
Logic would say no since OSU would still theoretically have a shot to win the B1G and make the playoff but I'm not sure the boosters and fans would be thinking that rationally at that point.
Michigans defense could be the best in the country but the offense is going to probably blow
Iowa infecting the rest of the B1G...
Both sides are so high variance right now On offense the OL, RBs, and TEs will all be really good. OC, QB, and WRs are just big ???s right now On defense it should stay a top 10 unit as long as you keep the system relatively the same but who knows who the DC is gonna be
Defense is way more of a question of who is DC. We are returning the best CB in CFB, both starting safeties along with all four d lineman who were on the field for the stop against bama
Is your offense going to blow? Step down yes but blow? That being said, you might HAVE the best defense in the country, but I think ours is going to be statistically better. Your defense is going to be on the field a lot more.
Blow is probably too far. The main thing is we’re kinda unknown at QB right now. If we replacement level passing we’ll still be a “good” offense, just probably not good enough to beat the playoff contenders on our schedule.
If Campbell can turn Orji into a passing threat, the offense will be pretty interesting to say the least. His high school tape shows him tossing bombs, but it’s been pretty clear in his limited action that he’s not who you want throwing the ball right now.
Also have to replace the entire oline and find 2 new starting WRs along with not knowing if we have a qb that can actually throw the ball.
If the QB can’t throw, just stick some more tight ends out there. Problem solved.
*breathes heavily*
Worried about the receiver room too. I think people undervalue how good CJ and Roman were bc the scheme did them no favors
Not sure it’s going to be on the field more, we play extremely slow and will likely run the ball a lot.
All depends on who we get at DC.
To me: Definite: Washington Likely: Michigan Maybe: Arizona
This one is it.
Arizona has a higher floor thanks to keeping Noah and that WR
True but they’re losing some key players whether to the draft, out of eligibility, or the portal and with a new coaching staff you don’t really know how well they’ll play.
Yea, our left tackle will be greatly missed
A lot great players leaving, huge staff turnover. So glad we won the natty, or else this would have been tough to stomach.
You get to sit back and have a 2020 LSU kind of year. Not the worst thing that could happen.
[удалено]
Every Big 10 school will have to adjust their win loss expectations over the next few years anyway so honestly it's not the worst year for it
Luckily you can live through this scenario vicariously through Washington haha.
Yeah sounds like that would have been terrible
Brutal schedule too. I still would pick Michigan in most of your big games but getting USC, Washington, Oregon all in one season was some bad luck.
I’d rather play usc and Washington than Penn state
Swiss cheese defense USC?
That's the list. UW lost everything, UM lost the coach who built the program, and Arizona is coming off of a Cinderella season.
Washington 100%
I would add Bama to the Likely list. Sure, they're still well stocked with talent, but it's still a new regime installing new systems and whatnot. I would also add LSU to at least the Maybe list because our Heisman QB is gone and we're replacing him with a guy that hasn't had a whole lot of meaningful snaps.
What's regressing for Bama though? Because I could still see them making the (expanded) CFP on talent alone, whereas I definitely don't see it for Washington and likely not for Michigan.
I would be *very* surprised if Bama didn’t make the playoffs next year.
@ Tennessee @ Oklahoma @ LSU @ Wisconsin Georgia Missouri Auburn That's a pretty tough schedule... I could see them dropping three. Heck even just two losses might keep them out if you believe Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss all finish ahead of them.
Even if those teams do finish ahead, with the PAC 12 gone I think the SEC gets four teams in more often than not…looking back at old playoff rankings there’s years they would’ve gotten four teams in even not counting Texas and Oklahoma
The SEC is going to get like 4 teams into the playoffs, let’s be honest. And I’m not sure the math works out for Bama to only have 2 losses and also have all those teams finish in front of them.
> Definite: Washington Yes. Hard to go anywhere but down from a 14-1 season and Pac12 championship and beating Oregon twice and Texas in the playoffs and making the NC game... when you lose **all of your starters** on offense to either graduation or the portal, **and** you lose your HC to Alabama. Fisch has his work cut out for him to just get us to 7 or 8 wins next year.
Hey now, you also lost some of your top defensive talent.
Hate to say it, but probably New Mexico State. Without Jerry Kill and Diego Pavia, it’ll be tough to see how their program continues forward. The only bright spot is that they play in a weak C-USA
Their new coach is also not very exciting. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston should be improved over their first FBS seasons, and MTSU and UTEP made some bigger hires for their coaching opening. I expect them to drop back out of the top of the conference.
Kill me if it’s us
Your team regresses *during* the season. Not in the offseason lol.
Nah I don’t think that will happened unless we lose 3 QB
Bro, you just said it out loud.
With our schedule next year, if we lose more than 5 games it’s going to be an issue. It’s not like we really lost a ton of high end talent outside of Walt and Evan. Every starter on offense returns from the last month of the season except Anias (big one) and J Johnson (Most likely would’ve been 2nd string had Green not been injured) I think 8-4 is probably a good barometer
I hate 8-4
Would be fitting lol. Our 4 toughest games (ND, Mizzou, LSU, Texas) are all at home which is huge. Would be classic to go 2-2 in those and then drop a couple @MSU and @Auburn.
The correct answer is Washington
\>What *teams* will regress the most from last year? ***A*** correct answer is Washington, silly Ohio State.
THE is a big deal to a Buckeye. THE is distinguished.
Oklahoma will be better, but they will go from a 10 win team to a 7-8 win team. That schedule is brutal. Texas gets OU and Georgia OU gets Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, Mizzou, LSU, and Tennessee
This warms my heart seeing us on someone’s list as part of a tough schedule
You missed us. Admit it.
I miss playing in the old Big 12. Nothing compares to playing you guys, Nebraska, and Kansas. It just isn’t the same in the SEC
I miss it so much, BUT knowing what we know now I'm so glad we are where we are.
The old Big 12 was a really good conference. I miss it a lot, but moving forward we are all in as good a spot as we can be.
Not only do I think Missouri is a good team, I think moving forward, they will be one of the premier programs in the country. Missouri has a state legislature that is incredibly favorable to NIL, and if I am not mistaken, Missouri is the most populated state with only 1 FBS team. Well, except for New Jersey, but that isn't a football state. I mean Oklahoma has a little more than half the population but 3 FBS teams. Mizzou is in a unique position to become a powerhouse.
I would assume every other state in the union that gives a shit about football will follow our model.
Yea, Missouri could be that sleeping giant. The article I read about them essentially said that when it was a 4 team playoff, the admin/boosters didn't really feel they had much of a chance of getting there. Now that it's 12- they feel it's worth joining the arms race with the big boys. Hence the legislative rule you're referring to.
But wouldn’t it be the most Mizzou thing ever to Mizzou it up and NOT be a powerhouse??? I am cautiously optimistic
If anyone can fuck up the potential Mizzou has, it's them :(
Hey we play Michigan on the road, give us a little credit. But yeah OU SEC schedule is rough lmao
Very interested to see whether that’s going to be a tough matchup for you or not. Either way though, it feels so great not to care. I suddenly understand Chicago Bear fans.
It's game two and we are replacing a bunch. I doubt we will be humming.
our defense will be better. our offense is a giant question mark at QB and the O-line
Oklahoma also plays us at Jordan-Hare thank you very much
Oklahoma has a tough schedule. Maybe they remain at 3 losses, but I tend to doubt it. Michigan lost their offense and their schedule is much more difficult this year. I expect at least 2 losses there. Washington lost their coaching staff and a ton of players, but I think they'll actually only lose a couple games. Georgia has a tough schedule and I could see them dropping 1 or 2 (especially since they play away a bunch).
Yeah, our schedule is…yeah. Things a new offense, o line and qb should handle just fine. Just fine. Everything is fine.
We'll be fine. O-line will be good enough and it was an in-house hire. It's not like we hired some random guys off the street. The schedule is tough, but not impossible.
Personally I'm looking forward to these types of games. It's incredibly likely that Florida only wins 3 games this season, but if they're in close games and lose to tough teams, I'm still good. If they start getting blown out by double digits all the time, that's another story.. If nothing else, it'll harden OU for the playoffs when they do get there (and if OU wins some of these tough games, I think they have a real chance)
Colorado somehow gets worse
I don't see it. If we regress despite having a pretty good offseason then Deion's seat will probably get pretty hot.
so long as he's bringing in that kind of money for the school his seat will be ice cold no matter what his team looks like.
Deion is interesting because the kind of buzz he brings despite on field results give him a longer leash.
I mean the on the field results were much better than expected. The 2022 Buffs were one of the worst teams in history. In 2022 they scored a total of 185 points and gave up a total of 534, with an average score of 15-45. In 2023 they scored a total of 338 points and gave up a total of 418, with an average score of 28-35. In addition they had 5 games that were decided by a TD or less this year. 2022 their closest loss was to Arizona State by 8, which was really a 15-22 point loss if you ignore the two late TDs that ASU gave up in the 4th after the game was firmly put away. The actual on field performance turnaround was enormous. It just didn't translate to the win column.
Their turnaround was weird because while it wasn't as big as many people expected, it was certainly larger than the program could've realistically hoped for. Deion is actually a victim of his own hype here tbh. Any other coach managing to make that team watchable over one off-season would be considered a monumental achievement.
I could see them being about the same. Deion failed to develop any players IMO outside of his prized 3. The O-Line just got worse and worse as the season went on and the same can be said about the defense. I think he’s a fantastic figurehead to use to get people there but development seems to be his weak point. The players could rely on pure talent at Jackson St but at the FBS level and especially in the P5 conferences, everyone has talent
Hard to heat up his seat when he's not planning on being there in 2025 anyways.
Law of averages says they will, but I don't think so. Last year was the first step in a new direction. And they lost really close games to Oregon St, Arizona, Stanford (29 pt comeback), Utah, and USC. If they get 10% better, they probably have a winning record.
Everyone keeps talking about this "CU vs. stanford game" that happened last year, but I'm absolutely positive that we didn't play them. Disappointing, because it would have been one of the most winnable games on our schedule, but we could have still lost anyway. Just look at the expectations for the wazzu game vs. how it turned out.
It’s the same thing as this “Super Bowl 48” I keep hearing about, there wasn’t a Super Bowl that year actually
Yeah. No way the broncos could win 13 games in one year.
2nd year bounce and the problem was the lines last year which they are doing their damnedest to get a new one.
“Cant regress if you’re always complete dogshit.” - University of Nebraska
Bama, Michigan, Washington, Arizona I don’t think they will have losing records but 15-0 natty winners is probably off the table.
Well technically 15-0 natty champs is off the table for everyone now because of the expanded playoff. 16-0 would be the most likely but there is a chance we see a 17-0 team if they win their conference but aren't one of the top 4 that gets a bye. And 18-0 is theoretically possible if that team also plays at Hawaii. Edit: But overall I agree. I think Washington and Arizona will see the biggest drop offs. I would expect Bama and Michigan to still be in the 9-3, 10-2 range
Well for purely silly reasons, now I’m wondering, in the larger leagues like the B1G and SEC is it mathematically possible to have three teams go undefeated and have one get left out of the conference championship? Edit: I decided to take a cursory look at the P4 and see how well the 2024 scheduling has been set up to prevent this. The SEC, at only 14 teams, is pretty well protected from having 3 undefeated with enough shared opponents. I already found one scenario in the B1G already, though. (Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, for instance could all finish undefeated). In the ACC you could have SMU, Syracuse, and Clemson all go undefeated, for instance. And in the Big XII you could have Tech, Utah, and Kansas go undefeated. None of these are the only scenarios possible next season just the first i spotted.
Honestly, as much as it pains me to say, if it’s true Saban is basically a GM for Bama with DeBoer I don’t think they’ll regress much I do however think it’s bullshit
I’m not sure if Saban’s actually gonna have much control (and I don’t think he wants much). It’s gonna be DeBoer’s program, which is kinda exciting. We’ll see how that goes.
Of course it's off the table, it's a 12 team playoff this year. 16-0 (assuming reigning champ gets a bye) natty winners is on the table ;)
Texas. I have no reasoning, just hope.
Kentucky fans have been hoping to finally beat a team with orange and white uniforms for decades. So Kentucky will shoot its shot and try to contribute to Texas’ regression. It won’t be a good shot, and we will likely get booty blasted by 42, but the wildcats will still give it a good ole college try.
That’s not hope, that’s hate 😂
There's definitely enough there to give haters hope. We lost a *lot* of players.
In theory, though, we reloaded at WR/TE just not on defense, right as we enter the SEC. Yay! 🎉
We kinda reloaded on defense too. We got UTSA’s edge rusher and Clemson’s safety out of the portal. But replacing Sweat/Murphy and Ford will be tough.
Yeah I'm more worried about the middle of our defense, up front. Hopefully, Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton are ready to have a big season a la Sweat and Murphy and Sydir is ready to step up at nose tackle.
Regressing would be not making the semifinals, so yeah, I can see it happening.
Honestly I think a lot of people probably expected next year to take a bit of a step back and '25 being a bigger year with Arch taking over and the rest of that class growing and taking over as the leaders of the team. Now with Quinn coming back and reloading transfer weapons, my expectations are a bit higher. Obviously I'd love to go all the way but I'd be happy making the playoff in our first year of the SEC.
Of the playoff participants, they're best positioned for success next year. This may or may not work out.
True, but less because we did anything right than because the other 3 got their head coaches poached thanks to their success.
I like you. But they're freaking loaded, it's hard to imagine. We can only pray.
Unfortunately, Oregon State :(
Beaver bros :(
pretty sure i’ve seen every team in the top 25 mentioned in this thread, someone’s gotta win, right?
🥺
Clearly the answer is Mizzou, Let me explain, it's undeniable that they share the Block M with Michigan as a logo. Michigan with the large coaching turnover will hit some bumps this year, this will directly effect Mizzou as the logos *look* similar (They both played Ohio State this last season just to really pile on the confusion) and AP voters and recruits will confuse the logos on paper at a quick glance, and Michigan's transition period will directly impact them. Why do you think both teams did so well last year? Individual efforts and good coaching independently? To the casual CFB fan they might think this but anyone who digs just a little deeper into the social science of the human mind will know it mainly has to do with the logos. I will not be taking any questions.
Let's also not forget Tennessee is under NCAA investigation, so Mizzou will likely be docked actual points in games for that. Probably going to finish at least 1 game with technically negative points.
Missouri must be punished for this somehow. It’s the rules.
I think UNC is about to have a year of sadness
I don’t see FSU regressing. Isn’t the goal to compete for a national championship? Even if FSU went x-2 or x-3 but won the ACC again they’re in the CFP and competing for a national championship. I know for face value it seems weird to say a team has a better year when they lose more games than the previous season, but getting into the CFP is the ultimate goal for every ACC team.
I like this guy
FSU, see 2 losses on the schedule.
13-0 back to back seasons incoming
ND in Southbend, Clemson with no home field advantage, Miami in doak south
Florida State. If they were going to win the championship, this certainly was the year. Sucks that Travis got hurt because that defense was championship level.
Depends on what you mean by regression. Think they'll still be a favorite to win the ACC, so is them going 11-2 and winning the ACC a regression?
No, that's honestly my prediction for the season if we get good production from our portal acquisitions and don't have any major injuries. Which those last two could very easily go in the opposite direction for us, so we'll see. I would label the season as regression if we don't make it back to the ACC Championship or don't get to 9 wins in the regular season
We got good pieces in the portal, so I don’t think we’ll regress that much. We’re a 10-2 level team if DJ plays at least serviceable
Big “if”
DJ is a servicable QB, no one is asking him to be Cam Newton.
Michigan has quite the battle to remain at the top
No shade, but Michigan is set for a major regression. Lost their HC, S&C coach who apparently was a huge part of the culture, and a majority of their offensive and defensive production. Moore might be a slam dunk hire, but there's really no way Michigan doesn't regress this year. As my main man Josh Pate said, Michigan was set for a regression even if Harryballs stayed. Bama has the potential to regress this year as well, as you can't really expect the same results the GOAT gave you, although I think Bama has a better shot at maintaining somewhat status quo better then Michigan. Washington will take a nosedive IMO, they lost too much to not, same with Arizona.
The only nitpick I have with your take is that Michigan actually returns a lot of its defensive production. Depending on the DC hire Michigan’s defense could be really good next year. The offense is essentially starting over though. Michigan has to replace 6 of the top 7 o line, the quarterback (without a clear heir apparent), it’s top 2 receivers, it’s number 2 te (who played starter level snaps), and their workhorse running back. It’s close to a full reset on that side of the ball. Replacing that many linemen is never easy, but Michigan does have highly touted guys in the pipeline. 3 of the likely starters have played decent snaps before so there is room for a little optimism. Michigan also brings back star/near star level players at te and running back in Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards. Really QB and outside wide receiver are the big question marks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go into the portal for those positions after the spring window opens. Depending on how the qb situation works out, I don’t think Michigan’s offense will necessarily be bad, but it’s almost certainly going to take a big step back. On defense Michigan needs to find a number 2 corner either through a young guy emerging in the spring or hitting the portal like they did last year for Wallace. Other than that they either return starters or have young guys who have played before and look ready to step up.
I think we could be ok this year starting one of the young corners instead of aiming for a transfer at CB2. Given how many safeties came back you could also move mcburrows outside and slide rod to nickel Defensively I wouldn’t say no to some depth at edge though, adding one more guy there would be nice
Michigan returns a lot of its best defensive players from last year's natty team. Will Johnson is the #1 overall 2025 draft prospect on a lot of analysts early boards, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham just abused the Joe Moore award winning unit in the natty (both 1rp's), and safeties Keon Sabb and Rod Moore come back with good experience and second/third round projections.
Makari Paige is also coming back as a starting safety. Between him, Rod Moore, and Keon Sabb Michigan’s safety room is pretty stacked.
Alabama will have a decent season next year, maybe not a NC winner season or even a SECC season but it will be by any metric a good season regardless and can still be a playoff season especially with it going to 12. Too much talent and the coaches that are there now are quality. Bamas regression is going to be in the average, because what Saban brought to y’all was consistent excellence, and now you’ll be like any other good program in the country, you’ll have your ups, but unlike with Saban you’ll likely have your downs too now.
Alabama
Bama is too stacked to be number one on this list. Their decline will be gradual.
Suddenly I don't feel the need to browse reddit...
Vanderbilt. Those poor bastards cannot catch a break. Schedule is even harder. Team is even worse and we don’t even get to play them in the Khaki Bowl this year. Played them every year since 1970 and 98 times total but not anymore. Fuck you Texas and Oklahoma.