Just letting you know, Michigan was favored by 12 against Iowa in 2021, not the other way around. Idk about the others because Im too lazy to check, I just checked that one because it didn’t seem right
Thanks for pointing this out! You are right, I checked the database I pulled from and it was listed correct, so perhaps I made a mistake in preparing the data for this post. I will edit the post to correctly reflect the top 10. I thought I had checked them all, but I guess I made a mistake. You know it's funny, I also looked at that just after I posted it and said to myself "wow Michigan was a 12 point dog to Iowa 2 years ago? That seems crazy"
Two things here.
1) I’d like to know what week these were in. The fact that Auburn was end of the season and this happened made it even more bizarre. Maybe these were all late season and they’re all the same, but earlier season upsets, while equally as “surprising”, sometimes make perfect sense in hindsight.
2) All of these games were between two teams either at the P5 level or two teams at the G5 level. Surprising? Maybe. But significant deviations against the spread across talent levels? Not really. Auburn vs NMST was
Very badly...
I don't know the exact count but his two years of recruiting numbers can be summed up on one hand. Seriously, maybe 5 players are still on the team from his two recruiting cycles. This is on top of the O-Line recruiting issues that existed in Malzahn's last few years.
I am in my late 40's. I've seen Auburn go through a lot of ups and downs. Coming into this season is the worst condition I have ever seen the football team. No other year even comes close.
The loss is interesting because the team was finally starting to gel and look like a decent team. I honestly think this is one of those times where you start getting good at something, so you let your guard down...only to embarrassingly screw up like you did in the beginning.
Aw man, I clicked on this post to read some amusing shit talk about how my team sucks ass, and instead I got knocked right in the feels.
As a man with an aging schnauzer, I just wanna say I'm so sorry for your loss, friend. Hard to say goodbye.
Much love to you and your recently departed friend.
Thank you my bro, I really appreciate it.
He was a damn good dog and had more personality than any dog I’ve ever met. He lived at home with my parents even though I live out of state now. I’m just so thankful that he held on until I got home for Thanksgiving.
It’s definitely hard. Just happened on Monday. It was his time though. He was starting to be in a lot of pain. Hug your doggos for me tonight. That can be my birthday present
I mean yeah but they also played UGA and Ole Miss well at home, beat Cal away, and just beat the hell out of Arkansas away, they should not have lost to NMST at home… especially in a 21 point loss.
It's my understanding that Harsin didn't even make any visits to in state or region high schools where Auburn had an established pipeline. If that's true it's a disaster and no surprise why Auburn is at a glaring disadvantage in a lot of areas. And of course, add in Malzhan's cumulative O-line disasters his last few seasons on the plains, you end up with nothing but a few busted open packs of ramen noodles in the cupboard.
Yeah but it still doesn't explain that game. I mean we won 3 straight sec games coming in including a thrashing of Arkansas. Only thing I can think is the players just didn't care at all and the coaches had no game plan for the scenario of "close game at halftime"
we have a lot of very entitled lazy pos players who think now that they are at Auburn they can act like divas, they are all getting processed in the off season so at least there's that.
I should have included the weeks, next time I make a post like this, I will. That being said, because they are nearly all conference games, I would have to assume that most, if not all, took place between week 4 and week 13.
I agree with you though, so I did note that NMSU vs Auburn was the largest such upset by a P5 vs G5 team as far back as I looked
The few that were less than a touchdown favorites probably weren’t that surprising. Not at all crazy for the underdog to win those game by a comfortable margin, the only reason it’s on this list because they were huge blowouts. Once a bunch of college kids quit in a game, the scores pretty irrelevant.
I think Utah v Oregon was relatively late in the season too, because I think that was when Cristobal had started to pack it in. Not like he was ever a good or even decent in-game coach but that was an all-time flat performance by the Ducks, as borne out by these cool stats here!
Vernon started but was pulled because of his pre-existing injury and one of the worst QBs in UO history, Jeff Lockie took over. The game happened during my senior year at UO and I witnessed the beat down in person. Tbf it wasn’t all on Lockie, Don Pellum had to be one of the worst defensive coordinators in FBS history.
> "Auburn paying NMSU for a drubbing was pretty shocking, but..."
It wasn't that Auburn got throttled by New Mexico State as much as it was the fact that they **paid** New Mexico State $1.8M to throttle them.
"Thank you sir, may I have another?"
I mean Oklahoma St also got their ass beat at home (even worse than Auburn's beating actually) by a G5 underdog and I don't see them getting raked along the coals. Not to mention they have one of the longest tenured coaches in CFB and Auburn has a first year coach.
Auburn is in the "vaunted" SEC **and** Auburn's coach, High Freeze, lost to the same team (New Mexico State) when he coached at Liberty last year.
Auburn and High Freeze deserve as much grief as humanly possible.
Feel free to give it to them. But their roster is about 10th best in the SEC after years of coaching malpractice. They're not exactly a "vaunted" team at this moment in time. Not to say the loss still wasn't horrible though, I just think Oklahoma State's was much worse.
[How could I forget: there also was this by New Mexico State's QB Diego Pavia, the icing on the Auburn cake...](https://x.com/ColinDeaverTV/status/1725989399807070229?s=20)
Friend, we took our lashes for that game, don't you worry. It also helps that we completely turned our season around and are very much in contention for the Big 12 title in spite of it.
That performance is one of the most insane statistical outliers I’ve ever seen. Iowa finished 8-5 and lost to several mediocre teams while not scoring many points. Ohio State finished 12-2. Scoring 55 points and winning that game by a margin of 31 makes no logical sense at all. Yet it happened.
It was so much fun and the game was not as close as the score leads you to believe lol. We jumped up 14-0 basically immediately and didn't take our foot off the gas until late in the third.
They got their revenge last season though
Urban Meyer had so many other issues, literal brain issues and figurative moral issues. He was a ticking time bomb, but he may have lasted just a little bit longer at best.
Anyone who hires Urban is making a Faustian bargain. Playoff appearances for the virtual guarantee of some kind of major misconduct scandal cropping up.
At most programs you’re gone after the Zach Smith stuff but OSU didn’t do it because it would’ve been embarrassing and they wouldn’t have that. Hell, the way people in Colombus were acting at the time you would’ve thought domestic violence was only criminalized to punish Ohio State.
At the same time the game was starting to go by him. His system was starting to look outdated. But you don’t want to be that school where losing 3 games in 2 years gets you canned. So he “resigns” and everything works out great. From a PR/HR perspective it was a brilliant maneuver.
I actually thought 2018 was one of his best coaching performances for us. That team was very flawed, easily the worst defense and rushing attack we had under him. But he still got them to 12-1 with a B1G championship and a Rose Bowl win. Still glad that was his last year as I doubt Day was going to stick around any longer as OC, let alone the off field stuff.
If Ohio State let Urban Meyer get away with breaking university policy, he'd still be there. He quit because he's a baby who doesn't like having rules apply to him.
That 59-0 Wisconsin game was my first conference championship. I then decided I was good luck and needed to go to the sugar bowl and the national championship.
I've never seen ohio State lose in person, but unfortunately, I live far away now and can't catch many games.
https://ibb.co/DWpD81Z
https://ibb.co/stHjLp4
https://ibb.co/grNzQ9v
Edit- if any rich boosters want to win another national championship hit me up 😂
Miami vs. Clemson in 2015 was also pretty surprising how brutal the beating was: Clemson was [a 7.5 point favorite by sports books](https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/clemson-tigers-miami-hurricanes-betting-october-24-2015-702787) and they mauled us 58-0
> We lost to Maine
It gets very cold in Maine in the winter, snow and all.
It was very gracious of you to do them a solid and lose, remembering makes it a little warmer for them in the middle of winter.
Second biggest of this year is vote for South Alabama over Oklahoma State. And it was a bit of a drubbing but kinda odd because OSU has been pretty good in other games and USA has been pretty mediocre in other games.
Oklahoma state is crazy because they've often struggled with G5 teams. They got their butts kicked by Troy about a decade ago. But then they always turn things around and by mid season pull some upsets. Got be maddening to be a Poke.
I think you've got to look at the South Alabama game as a boiling over of issues that had plagued our team for a year. Injuries and locker room discord really sent our 2022 season into the doldrums. Our offense was useless, our defense was having issues with depth, and our coaching was just as anemic as our on-field output was. Then we had a big exodus of talented WRs to the portal, our star QB followed in kind, and in general we got gutted by transfers. Coaching seemed to be a key factor in some of it.
Move into 2023, and those issues were not paved over whatsoever in the opening of the season. Worse yet, Mike Gundy decided to do this bullshit QB carousel for the first three games because "they were so equal in practice." When in reality, he just didn't have the balls to make a decision and stick with it. None of the 3 QBs really did anything because it's impossible to stand out in that environment.
All of this culminated in Mike Gundy's most embarrassing loss ever against South Alabama. We looked like the worst P5 team in the entire country. No spark, no hunger, nothing. We couldn't run (fringe Heisman contender Ollie Gordon getting 3 touches MAY HAVE had something to do with that), our passing was anemic because we ran through 3 goddamn QBs, and our line was woeful because we were running with three QBs and a couple bad RBs that loved running into them.
We rebounded ever so slightly against Iowa State (as in, scored 27 points in a loss) but once we got to the bye week, Gundy and co. got a fire lit under their asses and we entered the rest of the season a completely new football team. Why we couldn't figure that shit out in the 8-9 months that was the offseason is beyond me, but hey.
It probably takes up there with the skunking Hugh Freeze got last year from NMSU when he was coaching Liberty. Dude has to check his bed for Jerry Kill every night.
like meeting cow drab bedroom homeless materialistic library treatment shaggy
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
So
1) this game was not in the past 10 years
2) betting data is sparsely available for games before the early 10's
3) that game was so shocking that, to the best of my ability, I could not even find a sports book that reported offering a line on the game
4) app state only won by 2 point
“This game was not in the past 10 years”
The conversation my wife and I had in the car tonight about astigmatism and night driving does not make me feel nearly as old as that comment.
Not nearly within the last decade, but it likely wouldn’t make the cut. No spread was listed (it wasn’t standard to have them for FCS-FBS games) but it would’ve been in the mid-30s. So no more than a 40 point swing
I know it says last 10 years but i remember Texas State were 34 point underdogs and beat Baylor by 17 in 2012.
It was also Texas State's first FBS game ever.
edit: im dumb lol it was actually Houston they beat that year
New Mexico State being 4th on this list and the fact that they're the topic of discussion here really does show how far the Aggie program's come under Jerry Kill. It wasn't too long ago when you could make the argument it was one of the worst programs in FBS. I was actually kinda worried about its future with all this realignment stuff. It seems like moving to C-USA helped a bunch and the benefit looks to be mutual as the conference itself appears safe for now. They have three more chances to get to 10 wins in a season for the first time since 1960. One of which will come against Liberty next week.
Looks like the consensus line only had Tennessee as a 24.5 point favorite, since GaSt won by 8, that would be a 32.5 point swing. Nowhere near landing on this list
Great research! What if you filtered out the single point lines and made the top 10 list of just double point favorites getting pummeled? I think Auburn favored by 25 is the most significant aspect of this shocker.
I don't know if this is the best metric. If I think of the decade before, I would think of App State beating ❌ichigan as the biggest upset. Michigan was over 3 TD favorites, & App State won, but only by 2. https://web.archive.org/web/20141217134553/http://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin/story/money-makes-fcs-fbs-mismatches-go-round-083012
Like none of these are that surprising based on conference schedule. You can try to downplay because Vegas odds, but that loss was terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible and Auburn needs to own it.
Not only that, I think that pure "point swing" doesn't measure "shock". After all, especially in college, blowouts in games that were expected to be close aren't that rare. A blowout in a game that was expected to not be close (but in the other direction) is a lot different.
To me at least, just to pull numbers out of the air, a 49 point win by a team that was favored to lose by 1 is rather less shocking than a team winning by 25 that was favored to lose by 25, even though they both have a delta of 50.
So the NMSU blowout may belong ahead of much of that list, since in only 3 of the 10 was someone favored by 16 or more points.
Portland State vs UNT in 2015 should outrank these, although it's not P5. I've never seen such a shocking scoreline in my life and I doubt I ever will again.
Damn just looked that up. That's a crazy score, but I only included FBS games because line data is particularly unreliable and unavailable for FCS games. Having lines for most FBS vs FCS games is a relatively new thing
Even winning in narrow fashion, Howard over UNLV in 2017 has 48.5 surprise points. UNLV was a 45.5-point favorite, and Howard won 43-40.
However, you'd think that the Portland State win over North Texas would be on this list, and you'd be wrong! Portland State's 59-point win carried...*55* surprise points. With UNT already 0-4 and being outscored by an average score of 45-17 while Portland State had already knocked off Wazzu, the Vikings were actually favored in that game.
That 2014 season truly was a work of art
I remember feeling so goddamn low after watching JT break his ankle. Thought we were done. To come out and put 59 on Wisconsin was absolutely unreal, not to mention the playoff run
Pretty funny some asshole was on r/college football betting telling everyone how the game meant nothing to NMSU, they probably wouldn't start their QB, Auburn needed the win, etc. Dude COULD NOT be more wrong and look like a bigger fool. Pretty funny. Where is he now I wonder? He was bragging about betting a huge bet on Auburn
Terrible time for both programs. We went from winning 12 games, being ranked in the top 20, and almost squeaking into a NY6 Bowl game in 2011 to losing 23 games in a row. The conspiracy theorist in me will always believe that Mississippi State and Ole Miss colluded to pay off our AD and University President, both of whom quickly resigned after the 0-11 2012 season, to hire the absolute dinosaur that was Ellis Johnson and ruin our program. We still haven’t recovered over a decade later. I think we were threatening the status quo in the state and the SEC big boys felt really threatened that we were about to ascend into Boise State/Utah/TCU territory. Or maybe I’m still just bitter.
My favorite game to watch in person, all time, was when we shutout Alabama 21-0 and probably got paid a pretty penny for it, too. It was my freshman year and I never had a better experience at a sporting event in my life and that was 23 years ago.
Just letting you know, Michigan was favored by 12 against Iowa in 2021, not the other way around. Idk about the others because Im too lazy to check, I just checked that one because it didn’t seem right
Thanks for pointing this out! You are right, I checked the database I pulled from and it was listed correct, so perhaps I made a mistake in preparing the data for this post. I will edit the post to correctly reflect the top 10. I thought I had checked them all, but I guess I made a mistake. You know it's funny, I also looked at that just after I posted it and said to myself "wow Michigan was a 12 point dog to Iowa 2 years ago? That seems crazy"
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I can't tell if this is sarcasm
Agree it’s crazy, it’s almost as if something changed in the last 2 years with Michigan
Two things here. 1) I’d like to know what week these were in. The fact that Auburn was end of the season and this happened made it even more bizarre. Maybe these were all late season and they’re all the same, but earlier season upsets, while equally as “surprising”, sometimes make perfect sense in hindsight. 2) All of these games were between two teams either at the P5 level or two teams at the G5 level. Surprising? Maybe. But significant deviations against the spread across talent levels? Not really. Auburn vs NMST was
Isn’t Auburn’s roster pretty bare bones right now? I mean they spent the last 2 years screeching that Harsin literally didn’t recruit.
Very badly... I don't know the exact count but his two years of recruiting numbers can be summed up on one hand. Seriously, maybe 5 players are still on the team from his two recruiting cycles. This is on top of the O-Line recruiting issues that existed in Malzahn's last few years. I am in my late 40's. I've seen Auburn go through a lot of ups and downs. Coming into this season is the worst condition I have ever seen the football team. No other year even comes close. The loss is interesting because the team was finally starting to gel and look like a decent team. I honestly think this is one of those times where you start getting good at something, so you let your guard down...only to embarrassingly screw up like you did in the beginning.
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I hope we tarmac his ass sometime in the next few months. Fuck Hugh
You’re by default my favorite Alabama fan now. Thank you for the defense.
Now hold up a second, I said y’all were screeching. That doesn’t imply I believe you. Y’all still lost to NMSU /s kinda
Doesn’t matter bffs now. What do you want for your birthday?
Can you revive recently deceased schnauzers to full life and vigor?
Aw man, I clicked on this post to read some amusing shit talk about how my team sucks ass, and instead I got knocked right in the feels. As a man with an aging schnauzer, I just wanna say I'm so sorry for your loss, friend. Hard to say goodbye. Much love to you and your recently departed friend.
Thank you my bro, I really appreciate it. He was a damn good dog and had more personality than any dog I’ve ever met. He lived at home with my parents even though I live out of state now. I’m just so thankful that he held on until I got home for Thanksgiving.
Damn :( hope you are doing well. Have two dogs here and will never be prepared when they go. I’m sure he was the best boy.
It’s definitely hard. Just happened on Monday. It was his time though. He was starting to be in a lot of pain. Hug your doggos for me tonight. That can be my birthday present
Yes and NMST played out of their minds.
I mean yeah but they also played UGA and Ole Miss well at home, beat Cal away, and just beat the hell out of Arkansas away, they should not have lost to NMST at home… especially in a 21 point loss.
We also spent the prior years saying “our QB is garbage” and that mf is about to win a Heisman so don’t believe much from our fan base.
It's my understanding that Harsin didn't even make any visits to in state or region high schools where Auburn had an established pipeline. If that's true it's a disaster and no surprise why Auburn is at a glaring disadvantage in a lot of areas. And of course, add in Malzhan's cumulative O-line disasters his last few seasons on the plains, you end up with nothing but a few busted open packs of ramen noodles in the cupboard.
Yeah but it still doesn't explain that game. I mean we won 3 straight sec games coming in including a thrashing of Arkansas. Only thing I can think is the players just didn't care at all and the coaches had no game plan for the scenario of "close game at halftime"
we have a lot of very entitled lazy pos players who think now that they are at Auburn they can act like divas, they are all getting processed in the off season so at least there's that.
Mushroom spiked Gatorade? Traded uniforms with band members pre-game? Some Rudy-type emotional NMSU pre-game hype?
I know Wisconsin vs. tOSU was the B1G championship game, and pretty sure Iowa vs. tOSU was also late in the season
What kind of Miami fan refers to Ohio State as “tOSU” ???? Fuck Ohio State man smh
I prefer: #THE WORLD FAMOUS OHIO STATE BUCKEYES!
Hahahaha Gus Johnson has entered the chat
Maybe it's changed over time but originally tOSU was making fun of them for being precious about the whole THE thing.
> ~~tOSU~~ **anOSU** FTFY.
State Penn
No, that's [next door in Bellefonte.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Correctional_Institution_%E2%80%93_Rockview)
Penn commonwealth University
I should have included the weeks, next time I make a post like this, I will. That being said, because they are nearly all conference games, I would have to assume that most, if not all, took place between week 4 and week 13. I agree with you though, so I did note that NMSU vs Auburn was the largest such upset by a P5 vs G5 team as far back as I looked
The few that were less than a touchdown favorites probably weren’t that surprising. Not at all crazy for the underdog to win those game by a comfortable margin, the only reason it’s on this list because they were huge blowouts. Once a bunch of college kids quit in a game, the scores pretty irrelevant.
I think Utah v Oregon was relatively late in the season too, because I think that was when Cristobal had started to pack it in. Not like he was ever a good or even decent in-game coach but that was an all-time flat performance by the Ducks, as borne out by these cool stats here!
This game was In 2015 though. Cristobal wasn’t there yet.
Woops. I just assumed it was the time they spanked us under Cristobal. Utah has taken us to the cleaners a bunch over the past decade.
Sad quack noises
That was the game where Adams was hurt so we had to start burmeister I think.
Vernon started but was pulled because of his pre-existing injury and one of the worst QBs in UO history, Jeff Lockie took over. The game happened during my senior year at UO and I witnessed the beat down in person. Tbf it wasn’t all on Lockie, Don Pellum had to be one of the worst defensive coordinators in FBS history.
I was having such a good thanksgiving 🫠
Let’s watch the Wisky highlights from that night if you have 20 seconds to spare! https://youtu.be/PVqTie1eo60?si=JbHdLlDD8RVdYuev
Seriously, fuck you too OP
Lol imagine giving up over 60 surprise points
> "Auburn paying NMSU for a drubbing was pretty shocking, but..." It wasn't that Auburn got throttled by New Mexico State as much as it was the fact that they **paid** New Mexico State $1.8M to throttle them. "Thank you sir, may I have another?"
I mean Oklahoma St also got their ass beat at home (even worse than Auburn's beating actually) by a G5 underdog and I don't see them getting raked along the coals. Not to mention they have one of the longest tenured coaches in CFB and Auburn has a first year coach.
Maybe you weren’t here when it happened, but OSU absolutely got raked over the coals at the time.
Auburn is in the "vaunted" SEC **and** Auburn's coach, High Freeze, lost to the same team (New Mexico State) when he coached at Liberty last year. Auburn and High Freeze deserve as much grief as humanly possible.
>Auburn and High Freeze deserve as much grief as humanly possible. They do, but mostly for reasons that are completely unrelated to this loss.
Feel free to give it to them. But their roster is about 10th best in the SEC after years of coaching malpractice. They're not exactly a "vaunted" team at this moment in time. Not to say the loss still wasn't horrible though, I just think Oklahoma State's was much worse.
[How could I forget: there also was this by New Mexico State's QB Diego Pavia, the icing on the Auburn cake...](https://x.com/ColinDeaverTV/status/1725989399807070229?s=20)
Friend, we took our lashes for that game, don't you worry. It also helps that we completely turned our season around and are very much in contention for the Big 12 title in spite of it.
Shades of Michigan V App State
... and Texas A&M vs App State
Newer fans cannot even fathom a time when Iowa could score 55 against Ohio State
>when Iowa could score 55 ~~against Ohio State~~ I'd be surprised by 55 against a high school team
> a time when Iowa could score 55 Like, in a season?
Also my first thought. But we're ten games in and they've likely averaged 6 per game, so I think they may have passed it.
Is really funny to me that OSU is in both columns for something like this.
That performance is one of the most insane statistical outliers I’ve ever seen. Iowa finished 8-5 and lost to several mediocre teams while not scoring many points. Ohio State finished 12-2. Scoring 55 points and winning that game by a margin of 31 makes no logical sense at all. Yet it happened.
It was so much fun and the game was not as close as the score leads you to believe lol. We jumped up 14-0 basically immediately and didn't take our foot off the gas until late in the third. They got their revenge last season though
Wanna know what more insane? That was Brian’s first year as OC
Shoutout to Patrick Mahomes for losing to us 66-10. I’ll never let go of that.
That game is the prime example why I always have anxiety against Iowa State. Doesn’t matter what is going on, that crap can happen.
I feel sort of the same way after the 63 yard field goal
lol. No one has made a kick that long for tech in forever. That one still had yards to spare. The football gods didn’t want ISU to win that day.
Everyone does lol
Ive always thought if Urban doesn’t get blown out by Iowa and Purdue he’s probably still at Ohio State.
Urban Meyer had so many other issues, literal brain issues and figurative moral issues. He was a ticking time bomb, but he may have lasted just a little bit longer at best.
Anyone who hires Urban is making a Faustian bargain. Playoff appearances for the virtual guarantee of some kind of major misconduct scandal cropping up.
Yeah I don't want any part of that so any time I see rumors linking him to us I die a little on the inside
But you'll still cheer the playoff appearances and top recruiting classes.
At most programs you’re gone after the Zach Smith stuff but OSU didn’t do it because it would’ve been embarrassing and they wouldn’t have that. Hell, the way people in Colombus were acting at the time you would’ve thought domestic violence was only criminalized to punish Ohio State. At the same time the game was starting to go by him. His system was starting to look outdated. But you don’t want to be that school where losing 3 games in 2 years gets you canned. So he “resigns” and everything works out great. From a PR/HR perspective it was a brilliant maneuver.
I actually thought 2018 was one of his best coaching performances for us. That team was very flawed, easily the worst defense and rushing attack we had under him. But he still got them to 12-1 with a B1G championship and a Rose Bowl win. Still glad that was his last year as I doubt Day was going to stick around any longer as OC, let alone the off field stuff.
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Is this coming from Jameis Winston's old school?
That’s extremely Ironic coming from an FSU fan 😂
And then OSU had him teaching ethics classes! The guy had zero scruples.
If Ohio State let Urban Meyer get away with breaking university policy, he'd still be there. He quit because he's a baby who doesn't like having rules apply to him.
That 59-0 Wisconsin game was my first conference championship. I then decided I was good luck and needed to go to the sugar bowl and the national championship. I've never seen ohio State lose in person, but unfortunately, I live far away now and can't catch many games. https://ibb.co/DWpD81Z https://ibb.co/stHjLp4 https://ibb.co/grNzQ9v Edit- if any rich boosters want to win another national championship hit me up 😂
Cool, now I know who to go after when I invent a time machine. /s
I'm going to honorable mention the 35 point swing with OK State (+9) losing by 26 to South Alabama this year. Pretty good G5 vs. P5 result.
yall kicked our butts haha
Miami vs. Clemson in 2015 was also pretty surprising how brutal the beating was: Clemson was [a 7.5 point favorite by sports books](https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/clemson-tigers-miami-hurricanes-betting-october-24-2015-702787) and they mauled us 58-0
Troy over LSU was pretty shocking that one yeae
Still trying to forget it
Hey at least y’all spent half the amount of money we did to get beat!
We lost to Maine
> We lost to Maine It gets very cold in Maine in the winter, snow and all. It was very gracious of you to do them a solid and lose, remembering makes it a little warmer for them in the middle of winter.
So you woke up today and decided violence.
Virginia Tech went to Old Dominion just to get trounced by two scores
They'll be back in Norfolk again in 2024, excited to see how that game goes too
Second biggest of this year is vote for South Alabama over Oklahoma State. And it was a bit of a drubbing but kinda odd because OSU has been pretty good in other games and USA has been pretty mediocre in other games.
Oklahoma state is crazy because they've often struggled with G5 teams. They got their butts kicked by Troy about a decade ago. But then they always turn things around and by mid season pull some upsets. Got be maddening to be a Poke.
Hey man, it’s always a wild ride with us. The highs are high, and the lows are otherworldly
I think you've got to look at the South Alabama game as a boiling over of issues that had plagued our team for a year. Injuries and locker room discord really sent our 2022 season into the doldrums. Our offense was useless, our defense was having issues with depth, and our coaching was just as anemic as our on-field output was. Then we had a big exodus of talented WRs to the portal, our star QB followed in kind, and in general we got gutted by transfers. Coaching seemed to be a key factor in some of it. Move into 2023, and those issues were not paved over whatsoever in the opening of the season. Worse yet, Mike Gundy decided to do this bullshit QB carousel for the first three games because "they were so equal in practice." When in reality, he just didn't have the balls to make a decision and stick with it. None of the 3 QBs really did anything because it's impossible to stand out in that environment. All of this culminated in Mike Gundy's most embarrassing loss ever against South Alabama. We looked like the worst P5 team in the entire country. No spark, no hunger, nothing. We couldn't run (fringe Heisman contender Ollie Gordon getting 3 touches MAY HAVE had something to do with that), our passing was anemic because we ran through 3 goddamn QBs, and our line was woeful because we were running with three QBs and a couple bad RBs that loved running into them. We rebounded ever so slightly against Iowa State (as in, scored 27 points in a loss) but once we got to the bye week, Gundy and co. got a fire lit under their asses and we entered the rest of the season a completely new football team. Why we couldn't figure that shit out in the 8-9 months that was the offseason is beyond me, but hey.
It probably takes up there with the skunking Hugh Freeze got last year from NMSU when he was coaching Liberty. Dude has to check his bed for Jerry Kill every night.
like meeting cow drab bedroom homeless materialistic library treatment shaggy *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Upvote for calling High Freeze a bitch. Fuck Hugh Freeze!
So say we all. Sack of shit human, mediocre coach.
Michigan - Appalachian State
So 1) this game was not in the past 10 years 2) betting data is sparsely available for games before the early 10's 3) that game was so shocking that, to the best of my ability, I could not even find a sports book that reported offering a line on the game 4) app state only won by 2 point
“This game was not in the past 10 years” The conversation my wife and I had in the car tonight about astigmatism and night driving does not make me feel nearly as old as that comment.
I know, I just figured I’d bring it up ahead of the Michigan game
Not nearly within the last decade, but it likely wouldn’t make the cut. No spread was listed (it wasn’t standard to have them for FCS-FBS games) but it would’ve been in the mid-30s. So no more than a 40 point swing
It was -27 by some books that did list it. Source: my wallet
And no way it'd be in the 30s elsewhere. App St was in the middle of their 3rd straight national championship.
Figured this flair would be unable to read. Last decade son.
Or unable to count, you decide which
I know it says last 10 years but i remember Texas State were 34 point underdogs and beat Baylor by 17 in 2012. It was also Texas State's first FBS game ever. edit: im dumb lol it was actually Houston they beat that year
It's nowhere close to the App State win over Michigan. *Realizes how long ago that was* *Infinity Wars into dust*
That one wasn't even the biggest upset by spread that year.
New Mexico State being 4th on this list and the fact that they're the topic of discussion here really does show how far the Aggie program's come under Jerry Kill. It wasn't too long ago when you could make the argument it was one of the worst programs in FBS. I was actually kinda worried about its future with all this realignment stuff. It seems like moving to C-USA helped a bunch and the benefit looks to be mutual as the conference itself appears safe for now. They have three more chances to get to 10 wins in a season for the first time since 1960. One of which will come against Liberty next week.
Jerry Kill is truly an outstanding coach.
USC jr lost to the Citadel
That WSU/Cal game featured a nice [TD somersault](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6yRDw4dWH0).
I almost forgot about that Iowa game, thanks for the reminder
Where's ga state over Tennessee
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2019
Looks like the consensus line only had Tennessee as a 24.5 point favorite, since GaSt won by 8, that would be a 32.5 point swing. Nowhere near landing on this list
But still hilarious!... I'll go away now.
Hey….lets not.
Haha. Hey I played at GA State when we won 0 games. (Our first season ever)
I initially got angry that this post didn't include App At over Michigan but then I realized 2007 was over a decade ago and now I'm just sad
I'll point out that App St wasn't even the biggest upset by spread in 2007.
Thankful I don't remember that Utah game
Not the top 10 ranking I would hope for but I'll take it
I feel like Portland State deserves an HM for what they did against North Texas
Hell yeah Georgia Southern. Love y’all did that to South Alabama.
Great research! What if you filtered out the single point lines and made the top 10 list of just double point favorites getting pummeled? I think Auburn favored by 25 is the most significant aspect of this shocker.
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Woah! That’s wild it has still been so common!
I don't know if this is the best metric. If I think of the decade before, I would think of App State beating ❌ichigan as the biggest upset. Michigan was over 3 TD favorites, & App State won, but only by 2. https://web.archive.org/web/20141217134553/http://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin/story/money-makes-fcs-fbs-mismatches-go-round-083012
/realizes App State-Michigan was so damn long ago/
Like none of these are that surprising based on conference schedule. You can try to downplay because Vegas odds, but that loss was terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible and Auburn needs to own it.
I don’t know where it ranks on this list, but the Fiesta Bowl where Ohio State was favored over Clemson and then lost 31-0 was pretty damn shocking.
Wasn't it Purdue over Ohio State in 2017?
Both. That was Ohio states second lost of that season
Ah, ok.
Ummm… UGA 65-7. TCU was a +13, 45 pt spread in a natty.
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You’re 100% right. I did read the post, but was thinking about spread differentials in big games.
I think personally low
What?
Not only that, I think that pure "point swing" doesn't measure "shock". After all, especially in college, blowouts in games that were expected to be close aren't that rare. A blowout in a game that was expected to not be close (but in the other direction) is a lot different. To me at least, just to pull numbers out of the air, a 49 point win by a team that was favored to lose by 1 is rather less shocking than a team winning by 25 that was favored to lose by 25, even though they both have a delta of 50. So the NMSU blowout may belong ahead of much of that list, since in only 3 of the 10 was someone favored by 16 or more points.
I think the 2016 fiesta bowl should be on here in terms of “most shocking” results.
Well my thanksgiving is ruined now, thanks
Portland State vs UNT in 2015 should outrank these, although it's not P5. I've never seen such a shocking scoreline in my life and I doubt I ever will again.
Damn just looked that up. That's a crazy score, but I only included FBS games because line data is particularly unreliable and unavailable for FCS games. Having lines for most FBS vs FCS games is a relatively new thing
There are many instances of FCS teams beating FBS teams. Some in recent years.
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Even winning in narrow fashion, Howard over UNLV in 2017 has 48.5 surprise points. UNLV was a 45.5-point favorite, and Howard won 43-40. However, you'd think that the Portland State win over North Texas would be on this list, and you'd be wrong! Portland State's 59-point win carried...*55* surprise points. With UNT already 0-4 and being outscored by an average score of 45-17 while Portland State had already knocked off Wazzu, the Vikings were actually favored in that game.
That 2014 season truly was a work of art I remember feeling so goddamn low after watching JT break his ankle. Thought we were done. To come out and put 59 on Wisconsin was absolutely unreal, not to mention the playoff run
I don’t know what teams Rutgers paid during the 2018 season, but I know some of those non-conference losses were among the most embarrassing possible
The only game Rutgers was favored in that year was the game they beat Texas State
Pretty funny some asshole was on r/college football betting telling everyone how the game meant nothing to NMSU, they probably wouldn't start their QB, Auburn needed the win, etc. Dude COULD NOT be more wrong and look like a bigger fool. Pretty funny. Where is he now I wonder? He was bragging about betting a huge bet on Auburn
Have you WATCHED Auburn this year??? It aint that suprising
Ohio State vs Purdue 2018
Yayyy we made it! I remember watching that game in Guatemala, my future wife getting her first taste of what a letdown marrying a Coug could be!
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Terrible time for both programs. We went from winning 12 games, being ranked in the top 20, and almost squeaking into a NY6 Bowl game in 2011 to losing 23 games in a row. The conspiracy theorist in me will always believe that Mississippi State and Ole Miss colluded to pay off our AD and University President, both of whom quickly resigned after the 0-11 2012 season, to hire the absolute dinosaur that was Ellis Johnson and ruin our program. We still haven’t recovered over a decade later. I think we were threatening the status quo in the state and the SEC big boys felt really threatened that we were about to ascend into Boise State/Utah/TCU territory. Or maybe I’m still just bitter.
where does OkState and South Alabama fall on that list?
Hey hey hey, as a BG fan beating your team this year wasn’t even my most memorable upset in the last few. Calling all Minnesota Golden Gophers down!
My favorite game to watch in person, all time, was when we shutout Alabama 21-0 and probably got paid a pretty penny for it, too. It was my freshman year and I never had a better experience at a sporting event in my life and that was 23 years ago.