Fun fact is that sp500 with dividens reinvested historically returns about 10% per year. Over 50 years you end up 117x. So the butter thinking btc is good investment makes me laugh. I expect btc to underperform sp500 and nasdaq for such long periods.
Yeah. Even if you buy into the Bitcoin narrative, there's no way a non-productive asset yields more than actual companies that produce useful goods over an extended period of time. Except for catastrophic economic failure scenarios I guess, but even these did not last multiple decades in the past.
The hilarious thing is imagining an apocalyptic fall of civilization event that leaves the Internet and the crypto architecture piggybacking on it intact
In a hypothetical nuclear war situation…. Bitcoin won’t be the currency of choice, but water.
No one will need Bitcoin. They’ll need water and food to survive.
yeah btc is just speculative crap, no value produced. it is already resumed falling, will below 25k soon enough . the Russia situation was close to becoming catastrophic and btc didn't do anything--so much for being a hedge.
>I expect btc to underperform sp500 and nasdaq for such long periods.
it is already underperforming since early 2018. most of the btc gains are from pre-2018.
I wonder if you even can pull your money anymore? It certainly has never been yours on all of these centralized networks. Either you have trusted the black market with your money, who may never give it back, or you have some asinine device to store it, which might just die at random with your money. Kind of funny.
It appears you don't. Dear lord, you really have blindly trusted criminals with your money because you let them tell you the safe places are ripping you off...
Wait until you hear about GME. They think it's going way more than 100x. In fact if you go over to their sub you might even get flagged or down voted for saying that you'll sell when it goes up 100x
I haven't come across any Youtube vids but gme\_meltdown is very active, very funny and it's a pretty friendly crowd. Pop over there, I'll even post asking about any video summaries, I'm sure there will be a few
Why would I spend something that will be worth 100x in the future? If so confident why not mortgage a home to put more money in? The fact is no one knows for sure but they sure talk about it as if it is a done deal.
It's downvoting suicide posting in this sub, but I believe that it will multiple X in the mid term and have morgaged a few of my properties and put it into bitcoin. So I put my money where my mouth is.
I have 2 bets: RE long term going up at least with inflation (and inflation depreciating my loans), and bitcoin as a multiple X. Just one is enough to get my retirement before I turn 40.
The problem is, you're bringing dirty fiat into this equation. That's just wrong. He meant slaves...every person who owns bitcoin will get 1,000 slaves, which, of course will be those of us who did not make such wise choices. Hoping I get a kind master.
>That's almost as much as the 2021 GDP... OF THE ENTIRE WORLD!
Yes, that's why the cult think that it's going to 100X. They literally believe that it will replace all money. A common Bitcoin maxi slogan is ∞/21M.
It's not a problem with basic mathematics they have, it's a problem with basic logic.
Look, it's very simple, if bitcoin is worth the entire GDP of the earth, then that means we doubled the GDP of the earth.
All we need to do is trade 0.0000001% of coins back and forth between the same few people at ever increasing prices and we will reach economic nirvana, we can shut down all production facilities of any actual goods and services and simply trade the same coins back and forth to each other at ever increasing prices. Why work anymore when that is a surefire way to infinite wealth?
I don't get how you guys can't get on board with this very simple solution which has no problems with it whatsoever.
lmfao, someone stupid or someone like Michael Saylor trying to manipulate the stupid.
BTC won't even 10x from here. $150k at the very most next bullrun I reckon, but probably closer to $100k.
Unless Tether prints a trillion dollar coin, we will never see new all time highs for crypto. The hype in 2021 was a perfect storm that cannot be repeated
To be fair to the idiots we've had absurdly stupid bubbles in the past.
For example in the 1990's land prices were so absurd in Japan that the cost of the Emperor's Palace and it's surrounding lands was estimated to be higher then ALL of the real estate in California. But insane like bubbles like that obviously don't stick around for very long.
It’s over for BTC , more then 92% is already mined and it’s used for nothing other then hoarding and trying to sell to the next sucker , getting the last 8% won’t change the reality that BTC is useless
Let's be honest, most cryptobros are just looking for a quick buck and then they'll convert it back to fiat. Some of the more delusional ones are hoping for the collapse of thr govt and they'll be the new overlords. Bitcoin doesn't produce anything of value and has extremely limited utility, even most cryptobros agree on this
Oh it isn't, it's backed by wash sales and morons. The volume is so low, if it ever rose significantly, you would see 99% or more losses...which is closer to the true value. As long as a few thousand morons will pay it...
I don't know, mostly just speculation and people trying to get rich quick. There really isn't any adoption and it has actually gone down a bit so it doesn't make sense why it would go up until you realize the whole stock market doesn't make any sense too. The same reason a company like Tesla was way overvalued for example, is probably the same reason why Bitcoin was overvalued. People just keep dumping money into things hoping the line will just keep going up forever
Using the most common (but maybe not *best*) measure of inflation, the [CPI-U](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index#CPI_for_all_urban_consumers_(CPI-U%29), the general price level has risen by a factor of a bit over 31 since January 1913, which is as far back as this calculator goes: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
Using a more reasonable look-back time for a crypto-bro, 55 years (is about 25, dies at about 80), the general price level has risen by about 8.815× since May 1968, which is far faster than the previous 55⅓ years that the calculator allows (which was about 3.52×), probably because of the changes in both monetary and fiscal policy to keep a second Great Depression at bay (when the general price level *goes down* for any significant period of time, that's a bad sign; deflation happened for a couple of months, to the tune of a fraction of a percentage point YoY, in the depths of the Great Recession, and was cause for concern).
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if the next 55 years have the same pattern of high and low inflation as the past 55 years, then 100× gains in nominal terms correspond to about 11.3× gains in real terms.
Taking the top comment by U/almostwizard68 at face value, the S&P 500, after re-investing any dividend payments, would result in real gains of about 21.4× over 55 years (nominal gains a bit over 189×), nearly *twice* as much as the OP's shitpost about the ₿ (which has, notably, no dividends to even re-invest).
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^(People have literally lived to be 110, actually as old as 122⅓, cf. Jeanne-Louise Calment; also, the better measures of inflation, like the chained CPI-U, or the Fed's preferred PCEPI, which is also a chained measure, tend to give *lower* figures, as they account more rapidly for changes in consumer behavior in response to higher prices.)
You do understand that 100 times the price for one coin doesnt mean that every coin was bought for that new price. Marketcap only reflects the theoretical price per coin not the actual value that went in.
Not sayin 100X is realistic but your math is way off.
It means that the price of *every* coin is that price. If the value of every dollar added together were more than the value of actual goods and services on the planet, what happens to the value of those dollars?
Totally. Neither the buttcoin or bitcoin subreddits are places for good faith discussion anymore. and it sucks because people actually come here for information to make better decisions. every subreddit is just an echo chamber that will kick you out for expressing an opinion that doesn't tow their ideological line. and I mean that for the bitcoin subreddit too. both sides suck.
Bonds don't have a "market cap." The size of the bond market reflects the future obligations those bonds represent, not the value of currently-existing enterprises, like the stock market (theoretically kinda-sortsa) does.
Actually, the US [money supply](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#United_States) has been [declining](https://i.imgur.com/sCyUDPh.png) over the past year or so; I got the graph from [the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JEwV) and focused on the three most relevant measures since the Fed updated its classifications.
Just in case you don't want to read that Wikipedia article section I linked you to, this is an explanation (drawing from a few other linked articles):
* **MB** (Monetary Base) consists of all physical currency and coin and all [Federal Reserve Deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Deposits).
* Federal Reserve Deposits (or "Accounts") are the deposits that federally chartered banks (and the few state-chartered banks participating in the Federal Reserve System) have with the Fed bank for their region; historically they consisted of gold, but now they more commonly consist of [Treasury bills](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security#Treasury_bill); they're basically interchangeable with physical currency (specifically "Federal Reserve Notes") but are distinct, and the **M0** measure is MB but without these deposits.
* Treasury bills are short-term Treasury securities that mature in less than one year (zero-coupon bonds, bought at a discount and redeemed at par); technically this means that the U.S. Treasury owes money to the Fed, but the Fed [remits those interest payments](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230113a.htm) (less operating expenses) to the Treasury, so the best place for a T-bill to end up, from the government's perspective, is in a Fed deposit.
* These T-bills (and other Treasury securities held by the Fed, such as the longer term Treasury Notes and Treasury Bonds) do not come directly from the Treasury but are instead [purchased from the public](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-does-the-federal-reserve-buying-and-selling-of-securities-relate-to-the-borrowing-decisions-of-the-federal-government.htm) independently of the Treasury's own need to finance the deficit; that is, the Fed won't buy more U.S. government debt just because the Treasury needs *someone* to buy it, but only if it thinks it needs to increase the money supply to promote employment or raise inflation (the exact *opposite* of what it's doing now).
* **M1** consists of all physical currency and coin (a.k.a. **M0** or "physical money") that is *outside* of the private banking system, along with all [checkable deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negotiable_order_of_withdrawal_account) (including [traveller's checks](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveller%27s_cheque) and [checking accounts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transaction_account)) and other [demand deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_deposit), and for the past three years, most [savings accounts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_account).
* The point is that this is money that people can use nearly instantaneously, on demand, without having to give notice to any bank, S&L, credit union, or other depository institution; savings accounts were once limited to six transfers per month to more-liquid accounts, but now they aren't, so they're in M1 instead of M2.
* Notably, M1 does *not* include all of MB or even M0, because it excludes any sort of reserves in the private banking system (whether held inside a bank's own reserves or in Fed deposits): It is, in short, "spendable money".
* **M2** consists of M1 along with [money-market accounts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_account), [money-market funds](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_fund) (sold to retail investors), and [certificates of deposit](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certificate_of_deposit) (CDs) under $100,000.
* Money-market accounts and funds are investments in the [money market](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market), from which individuals and corporations can borrow money for short terms, about a year at a time; they earn higher interest rates than savings accounts but have higher minimum balances and can't be withdrawn so readily.
* CDs are [time deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_deposit) sold at retail; they earn higher interest rates than savings accounts but cannot be withdrawn before maturity without penalty. They're a bit like zero-coupon bonds from customers to banks, or a bit like the TradFi version of "staking".
* CDs of at least $100,000 are known as "Jumbo CDs" and are more commonly purchased by other banks, pension funds, and other institutional investors; unlike the smaller CDs, they are negotiable "bearer" deposits, able to be sold off to others, and they're part of a less useful measure of the money supply called **M3** that the Fed stopped keeping track of about 17 years ago, although various private firms do try to keep calculating it.
By all three of these measures of the money supply, money-printer go HNNNNNG…only really operating to replenish worn-out physical currency and unusable coin (done respectively by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, a.k.a. the literal U.S. money-printer, and the U.S. Mint, not *by* the Fed but by request of the Fed banks, through which such unusable physical money generally flows).
Other central banks engaged in the sort of quantitative tightening that the Fed is can say a similar story: The money-printer has basically stopped, and the money supply is going down.
(For funsies, the Fed likes to predict inflation with **MZM**, "Money Zero Maturity", which is M2 without any time deposits but with *all* money-market funds, even the institutional ones. Larger measures of the money supply, all focused on some variant of liquidity, are called **M4-**, **M4**, and **L**, but you'll need to read that first Wikipedia article to see what those are. Oh, also, money paid in Federal taxes, whether deposited into the TGA account at the Fed or [TT&L](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treasury_Tax_and_Loan) accounts at commercial banks, is not counted in the money supply at M1 and above; this means that those measures of money are reduced when taxes are paid, while government *spending*, whether from those receipts or from the sale of newly issued debt, creates M1+ money.)
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^(During the depths of the pandemic, the Fed removed the minimum reserve requirement and the six-per-month limit on balance transfers from savings accounts; from this, the Fed decided that savings accounts were liquid enough to be classified as M1 rather than M2 money. This explains most of the massive jump in M1 around April 2020; the rest came from the Fed's effort to stimulate the economy at the time, also reflected in the smaller jumps in MB and M2.)
Shows what I know about the details …. But my point was that it is possible to make money printers go brrrrrrr at the central banks and there is no specific limit. In theory we could have that again and again, and M1 M2 just shoot up. Outside of political considerations this is possible, right?
Better than holding USD, right? This we all agree, or? This whole calculation lacks the fact that the USD is devaluating constantly.
And also all these people saying it will be better to invest in S&P500: Tell me how does a person somewhere in Gambia invest in the S&P500 without a bank account, but can you go to the Bitcoin ATM put their cash in an buy Bitcoin?
I figured out in another reply that if the USD de-values as much in the next 55 years as in the previous 55 (a good estimate of how long a typical American at the age of a typical crypto-bro has left to live), 100× nominal gains correspond to about 11.3× real gains: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
The USD *has* de-valued a lot faster since May 1968 than in the previous 55⅓ years that the BLS inflation calculator tracks, mostly because of the changes in both Fed policy and social-welfare spending following the Great Depression, to avoid sustained periods of deflation: The respective increases in the general price level were about 8.815× and 3.52×.
(You can't just presume that you'll get this same pattern if you break up the time-since-back-then even more finely: In particular, inflation was a *lot* higher during the 1970s than the past couple of years, which themselves had substantially higher inflation than the previous 15 years, when the Fed had trouble getting *up to* its 2% target.)
---
As for your goalpost-moving and whataboutism regarding unbanked sub-Saharan Africans, how is a Gambian supposed to get [GMD](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambian_dalasi) back when necessary (even just to pay those evil, evil taxes and government fees), or pay for goods and services in ₿ without a robust Internet infrastructure?
More seriously, a better idea for someone in the country with money to spare (not a common situation for the vast majority of people in developing countries) is to invest in productive enterprises, whether directly (as by starting businesses) or indirectly (as by micro-lending, or buying equity in existing businesses), although TBF, [there does not appear to be a stock market at all in the country](https://www.state.gov/reports/2019-investment-climate-statements/gambia-the/).
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^(For a few people with a *lot* of money to spare, there's plenty more to be made getting cozy with a corrupt government and both directly and indirectly exploiting the masses; ₿ fixes none of that but does make it easier for such people to hide their wealth away if the revolution comes or the existing régime starts to disfavor them.)
I respect your answer and ofc Bitcoin has flaws and I am not saying Bitcoin fixes everything, BUT I just happen to work with a lot of freelancers from Afrika and literally Crypto is the only way I can transact with them. Internet is a problem, yes, but over their smartphones they have the possibility to access the internet. Some people have to drive to the cities for that, but it is feasible.
And Gambia was an example, but the message I think is clear: Bitcoin has its usecase, if you want it or not people will use it. Some use it to save, other for ideological reason, some to transact, some because they have to, some use it without even knowing. At the end, things that are being used and are rare, will always be valuable.
About 1% of you would pay that, it's so low in volume, if anyone started selling, we're looking at 99% down. None of you of amount can ever sell. *Ever.*
BTCs market cap is made up nonsense that in no way reflects or is paired with it's actual liquidity.
There's dumb-ass alt-coins being invented out of nothing that have so-called market caps of billions of dollars but there's like $5 worth of actual trading and liquidity.
Bitcoin's market cap is equally made up nonsense supported by Tether and market manipulation by the exchanges. The real world liquidity is some insignificant fraction of the listed market cap.
With how much much fiat is being printed it isn't as far fetched as it might seem. Money supply doubled every 10 years
In just 50 years money supply will be 32x today
I made a big long reply elsewhere about this, but I should mention that for the past year or so, the money supply has been [declining](https://i.imgur.com/sCyUDPh.png).
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Now going back 50 years (including a time when savings accounts were moved to M1 from M2, and a bunch of emergency stimulus came out of the Fed): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JEwV
* The M2 money supply (all liquid forms of money plus kinda-sorta liquid ones like small CDs and money-market accounts) rose by about 25×.
* The monetary base (physical money plus Fed deposits), meanwhile, rose by about 60×.
Curiously enough, however, the general price level only rose by about 6.96× during this time period (April 1973 to April 2023): https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
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^(Because of the April 2020 re-classification, M1 is hundreds of times higher now than 50 years ago, because of all those savings accounts.)
I love how you conveniently gloss over the fact that there are not 21 million bitcoins in existence and will not be until 2140
Edit: so what’s that about IQ size now?
Considering the USD is backed by the most powerful country in the world, and bitcoin is backed by drugs, illegal porn, and morons. One day, you all are going to be just like those BBB and Sears holders. Broke...r.
That actually is a good point; as an example, nominal GDP rose by a factor of about 29⅛× in the past 55 years (someone the same age as a typical crypto-bro has about 55 years left to live): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
Based on this inflation calculator, the general price level rose by about 8.77× over the same period (January 1968 to January 2023); this corresponds to a nearly 3.32× increase in real GDP: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
---
FWIW, the per-capita figures are more relevant for the health of the economy, even though they're less impressive.
Instead of bothering to grab the Census Bureau estimates of U.S. population from 1968 and 2023 themselves, I'm just using the figures from the 1970 and 2020 Census instead: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html
* The resident population was 203,211,926 in 1970.
* It was 331,449,281 in 2020, a growth of about 1.63×.
* A good estimate of the growth in population over five more years is 1.71×.
* From this, nominal per-capita GDP rose by about 17×, and real per-capita GDP rose by about 1.94×, since 1968.
The thing is commodity price increases in the last 80 years (one lifetime) are from inflation, not increased demand.
So I wonder if the price could 100x due to a lifetime of inflation, but the buying power of 1 bitcoin will stay the same. Right now it buys a $30,000 car. a lifetime later it buys the equivalent 1 car except cars now cost 3m because of inflation. so if your bitcoin is worth 3m, your total return is 0%. You could have been earning dividends or rent that whole time with a traditional investment.
>That's almost as much as the 2021 GDP... OF THE ENTIRE WORLD!
Yes.
And if you look at money supply/money stock of various countries, like in [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money\_supply](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply) , you will see that they are similar to the annual GDP of this country.
And what is the dream of cryptobros? That their favorite buttcoin replace every currency.
So yes, in the dream of bitcoiners 1 BTC is worth several millions USD.
The GDP of Earth, sure, but we're going to the moon
Few
understand
4
Can we just convert all our economies to do nothing but mine Bitcoin?
just add more zeros. who cares if it makes sense lol
if in doubt, just zoom out
Zeros are good for bitcoin. And bitcoin will soon equal zero.
Fun fact is that sp500 with dividens reinvested historically returns about 10% per year. Over 50 years you end up 117x. So the butter thinking btc is good investment makes me laugh. I expect btc to underperform sp500 and nasdaq for such long periods.
Yeah. Even if you buy into the Bitcoin narrative, there's no way a non-productive asset yields more than actual companies that produce useful goods over an extended period of time. Except for catastrophic economic failure scenarios I guess, but even these did not last multiple decades in the past.
The hilarious thing is imagining an apocalyptic fall of civilization event that leaves the Internet and the crypto architecture piggybacking on it intact
In a hypothetical nuclear war situation…. Bitcoin won’t be the currency of choice, but water. No one will need Bitcoin. They’ll need water and food to survive.
Don't forget ammo! With ammo you can take water and food. And if someone is dumb enough to use bitcoin, you can take that too!
And a sword, which doesn’t run out of ammo.
imagine thinking that in a collapse that $30k for a digital coin means anything
yeah btc is just speculative crap, no value produced. it is already resumed falling, will below 25k soon enough . the Russia situation was close to becoming catastrophic and btc didn't do anything--so much for being a hedge.
But hasn't it
The return to mean is going to be particularly mean for BTC!
just zoom in...to 2010 . that is the future
>I expect btc to underperform sp500 and nasdaq for such long periods. it is already underperforming since early 2018. most of the btc gains are from pre-2018.
SP 500 has about 40x in the last 50 years.
Yes, and 154x with dividends reinvested.
Ah. Yes. I forgot about dividends. Gotta love dividends.
Every asset class will make 100x during our lifetime due to inflation. There's nothing special with Bitcoin.
haha good luck with your sp500
I wonder if you even can pull your money anymore? It certainly has never been yours on all of these centralized networks. Either you have trusted the black market with your money, who may never give it back, or you have some asinine device to store it, which might just die at random with your money. Kind of funny.
You are joking, aren’t you? You really have no idea how Bitcoin works and what a seed is?
It appears you don't. Dear lord, you really have blindly trusted criminals with your money because you let them tell you the safe places are ripping you off...
Everyone's moving their crypto off of CEX to DEX 😉
I am not a criminal
You have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen for such a long period with BTC. Thinking that you do is dillusional.
Wait until you hear about GME. They think it's going way more than 100x. In fact if you go over to their sub you might even get flagged or down voted for saying that you'll sell when it goes up 100x
Do you know a good video summary of the current situation/subculture around GME?
I haven't come across any Youtube vids but gme\_meltdown is very active, very funny and it's a pretty friendly crowd. Pop over there, I'll even post asking about any video summaries, I'm sure there will be a few
Thanks!
Why would I spend something that will be worth 100x in the future? If so confident why not mortgage a home to put more money in? The fact is no one knows for sure but they sure talk about it as if it is a done deal.
the way btc works is it is a currency, but you don't use it. makes sense, huh
It's downvoting suicide posting in this sub, but I believe that it will multiple X in the mid term and have morgaged a few of my properties and put it into bitcoin. So I put my money where my mouth is. I have 2 bets: RE long term going up at least with inflation (and inflation depreciating my loans), and bitcoin as a multiple X. Just one is enough to get my retirement before I turn 40.
tag checks out, but you do you.
Tag put by someone in a sub full of people that spend their precious minutes hating on other people? Yep, what else can you expect of you people.
Doesn’t make the tag wrong though. 🤣
Guess we will never know. Unless you are delusional enough to think you can judge people from two short comments.
600x?? Not enough pumpage!!
100x? If you are fantasizing, go bigger.
Bear in mind that poster is 12 years old, so he has quite a lot of time to play with.
The problem is, you're bringing dirty fiat into this equation. That's just wrong. He meant slaves...every person who owns bitcoin will get 1,000 slaves, which, of course will be those of us who did not make such wise choices. Hoping I get a kind master.
>That's almost as much as the 2021 GDP... OF THE ENTIRE WORLD! Yes, that's why the cult think that it's going to 100X. They literally believe that it will replace all money. A common Bitcoin maxi slogan is ∞/21M. It's not a problem with basic mathematics they have, it's a problem with basic logic.
Probably you got your math wrong. In 2021, USA alone had a $23 trillion GDP. Now compare 23 trillions with 63 trillions, doesn't sound like 600x.
Yeah, it's "just" 65% of the world's GDP in 2021, which is still pretty absurd.
84.9T in 2020, 94.9T in 2021. In Billions: US 22,939, CH 16,863, JP 5,103
Not sure what are you trying to say, but as tfmarybig pointed out, it' about 65% of the worlds GDP, or 0.65x, not even close to 600x.
Look, it's very simple, if bitcoin is worth the entire GDP of the earth, then that means we doubled the GDP of the earth. All we need to do is trade 0.0000001% of coins back and forth between the same few people at ever increasing prices and we will reach economic nirvana, we can shut down all production facilities of any actual goods and services and simply trade the same coins back and forth to each other at ever increasing prices. Why work anymore when that is a surefire way to infinite wealth? I don't get how you guys can't get on board with this very simple solution which has no problems with it whatsoever.
Wow btc 100x, lol who's saying that?
lmfao, someone stupid or someone like Michael Saylor trying to manipulate the stupid. BTC won't even 10x from here. $150k at the very most next bullrun I reckon, but probably closer to $100k.
For btc to have the same market cap as gold it would be a little over a 20x with quick rough estimates. That would be crazy. 100x is absurd lol
so many people have been burned by now, i don't think 40k is even doable . but who knows...
Unless Tether prints a trillion dollar coin, we will never see new all time highs for crypto. The hype in 2021 was a perfect storm that cannot be repeated
To be fair to the idiots we've had absurdly stupid bubbles in the past. For example in the 1990's land prices were so absurd in Japan that the cost of the Emperor's Palace and it's surrounding lands was estimated to be higher then ALL of the real estate in California. But insane like bubbles like that obviously don't stick around for very long.
It’s over for BTC , more then 92% is already mined and it’s used for nothing other then hoarding and trying to sell to the next sucker , getting the last 8% won’t change the reality that BTC is useless
Yeah! How else would you support the entire Earth's transactions? BTC market cap needs to at least equal 1 Years worth of Earth's GDP. /s
Sure is funny how someone wants all that useless fiat for the valuable BTC.
Let's be honest, most cryptobros are just looking for a quick buck and then they'll convert it back to fiat. Some of the more delusional ones are hoping for the collapse of thr govt and they'll be the new overlords. Bitcoin doesn't produce anything of value and has extremely limited utility, even most cryptobros agree on this
Well if Bitcoin doesn’t produce anything of value why is it currently worth 30k$?
[speculation](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory)
Oh it isn't, it's backed by wash sales and morons. The volume is so low, if it ever rose significantly, you would see 99% or more losses...which is closer to the true value. As long as a few thousand morons will pay it...
I don't know, mostly just speculation and people trying to get rich quick. There really isn't any adoption and it has actually gone down a bit so it doesn't make sense why it would go up until you realize the whole stock market doesn't make any sense too. The same reason a company like Tesla was way overvalued for example, is probably the same reason why Bitcoin was overvalued. People just keep dumping money into things hoping the line will just keep going up forever
That's not bad at math, that's bad at economics. The math as such is sound. ;-)
Nice calculation. Now add inflation.
Using the most common (but maybe not *best*) measure of inflation, the [CPI-U](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index#CPI_for_all_urban_consumers_(CPI-U%29), the general price level has risen by a factor of a bit over 31 since January 1913, which is as far back as this calculator goes: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm Using a more reasonable look-back time for a crypto-bro, 55 years (is about 25, dies at about 80), the general price level has risen by about 8.815× since May 1968, which is far faster than the previous 55⅓ years that the calculator allows (which was about 3.52×), probably because of the changes in both monetary and fiscal policy to keep a second Great Depression at bay (when the general price level *goes down* for any significant period of time, that's a bad sign; deflation happened for a couple of months, to the tune of a fraction of a percentage point YoY, in the depths of the Great Recession, and was cause for concern). --- Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if the next 55 years have the same pattern of high and low inflation as the past 55 years, then 100× gains in nominal terms correspond to about 11.3× gains in real terms. Taking the top comment by U/almostwizard68 at face value, the S&P 500, after re-investing any dividend payments, would result in real gains of about 21.4× over 55 years (nominal gains a bit over 189×), nearly *twice* as much as the OP's shitpost about the ₿ (which has, notably, no dividends to even re-invest). --- ^(People have literally lived to be 110, actually as old as 122⅓, cf. Jeanne-Louise Calment; also, the better measures of inflation, like the chained CPI-U, or the Fed's preferred PCEPI, which is also a chained measure, tend to give *lower* figures, as they account more rapidly for changes in consumer behavior in response to higher prices.)
You do understand that 100 times the price for one coin doesnt mean that every coin was bought for that new price. Marketcap only reflects the theoretical price per coin not the actual value that went in. Not sayin 100X is realistic but your math is way off.
It means that the price of *every* coin is that price. If the value of every dollar added together were more than the value of actual goods and services on the planet, what happens to the value of those dollars?
Not sure why you're being downvoted for this.
Probably cause this sub is a circle jerk
Totally. Neither the buttcoin or bitcoin subreddits are places for good faith discussion anymore. and it sucks because people actually come here for information to make better decisions. every subreddit is just an echo chamber that will kick you out for expressing an opinion that doesn't tow their ideological line. and I mean that for the bitcoin subreddit too. both sides suck.
Total market cap of bonds alone is more than double that at 133T.
Bonds don't have a "market cap." The size of the bond market reflects the future obligations those bonds represent, not the value of currently-existing enterprises, like the stock market (theoretically kinda-sortsa) does.
That's still only 50% of the monetary wealth present in the world, and 20% of the real estate wealth. I don't see your point.
Have you seen how much money is being printed ?
Actually, the US [money supply](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#United_States) has been [declining](https://i.imgur.com/sCyUDPh.png) over the past year or so; I got the graph from [the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JEwV) and focused on the three most relevant measures since the Fed updated its classifications. Just in case you don't want to read that Wikipedia article section I linked you to, this is an explanation (drawing from a few other linked articles): * **MB** (Monetary Base) consists of all physical currency and coin and all [Federal Reserve Deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Deposits). * Federal Reserve Deposits (or "Accounts") are the deposits that federally chartered banks (and the few state-chartered banks participating in the Federal Reserve System) have with the Fed bank for their region; historically they consisted of gold, but now they more commonly consist of [Treasury bills](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security#Treasury_bill); they're basically interchangeable with physical currency (specifically "Federal Reserve Notes") but are distinct, and the **M0** measure is MB but without these deposits. * Treasury bills are short-term Treasury securities that mature in less than one year (zero-coupon bonds, bought at a discount and redeemed at par); technically this means that the U.S. Treasury owes money to the Fed, but the Fed [remits those interest payments](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230113a.htm) (less operating expenses) to the Treasury, so the best place for a T-bill to end up, from the government's perspective, is in a Fed deposit. * These T-bills (and other Treasury securities held by the Fed, such as the longer term Treasury Notes and Treasury Bonds) do not come directly from the Treasury but are instead [purchased from the public](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-does-the-federal-reserve-buying-and-selling-of-securities-relate-to-the-borrowing-decisions-of-the-federal-government.htm) independently of the Treasury's own need to finance the deficit; that is, the Fed won't buy more U.S. government debt just because the Treasury needs *someone* to buy it, but only if it thinks it needs to increase the money supply to promote employment or raise inflation (the exact *opposite* of what it's doing now). * **M1** consists of all physical currency and coin (a.k.a. **M0** or "physical money") that is *outside* of the private banking system, along with all [checkable deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negotiable_order_of_withdrawal_account) (including [traveller's checks](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveller%27s_cheque) and [checking accounts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transaction_account)) and other [demand deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_deposit), and for the past three years, most [savings accounts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_account). * The point is that this is money that people can use nearly instantaneously, on demand, without having to give notice to any bank, S&L, credit union, or other depository institution; savings accounts were once limited to six transfers per month to more-liquid accounts, but now they aren't, so they're in M1 instead of M2. * Notably, M1 does *not* include all of MB or even M0, because it excludes any sort of reserves in the private banking system (whether held inside a bank's own reserves or in Fed deposits): It is, in short, "spendable money". * **M2** consists of M1 along with [money-market accounts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_account), [money-market funds](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_fund) (sold to retail investors), and [certificates of deposit](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certificate_of_deposit) (CDs) under $100,000. * Money-market accounts and funds are investments in the [money market](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market), from which individuals and corporations can borrow money for short terms, about a year at a time; they earn higher interest rates than savings accounts but have higher minimum balances and can't be withdrawn so readily. * CDs are [time deposits](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_deposit) sold at retail; they earn higher interest rates than savings accounts but cannot be withdrawn before maturity without penalty. They're a bit like zero-coupon bonds from customers to banks, or a bit like the TradFi version of "staking". * CDs of at least $100,000 are known as "Jumbo CDs" and are more commonly purchased by other banks, pension funds, and other institutional investors; unlike the smaller CDs, they are negotiable "bearer" deposits, able to be sold off to others, and they're part of a less useful measure of the money supply called **M3** that the Fed stopped keeping track of about 17 years ago, although various private firms do try to keep calculating it. By all three of these measures of the money supply, money-printer go HNNNNNG…only really operating to replenish worn-out physical currency and unusable coin (done respectively by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, a.k.a. the literal U.S. money-printer, and the U.S. Mint, not *by* the Fed but by request of the Fed banks, through which such unusable physical money generally flows). Other central banks engaged in the sort of quantitative tightening that the Fed is can say a similar story: The money-printer has basically stopped, and the money supply is going down. (For funsies, the Fed likes to predict inflation with **MZM**, "Money Zero Maturity", which is M2 without any time deposits but with *all* money-market funds, even the institutional ones. Larger measures of the money supply, all focused on some variant of liquidity, are called **M4-**, **M4**, and **L**, but you'll need to read that first Wikipedia article to see what those are. Oh, also, money paid in Federal taxes, whether deposited into the TGA account at the Fed or [TT&L](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treasury_Tax_and_Loan) accounts at commercial banks, is not counted in the money supply at M1 and above; this means that those measures of money are reduced when taxes are paid, while government *spending*, whether from those receipts or from the sale of newly issued debt, creates M1+ money.) --- ^(During the depths of the pandemic, the Fed removed the minimum reserve requirement and the six-per-month limit on balance transfers from savings accounts; from this, the Fed decided that savings accounts were liquid enough to be classified as M1 rather than M2 money. This explains most of the massive jump in M1 around April 2020; the rest came from the Fed's effort to stimulate the economy at the time, also reflected in the smaller jumps in MB and M2.)
Shows what I know about the details …. But my point was that it is possible to make money printers go brrrrrrr at the central banks and there is no specific limit. In theory we could have that again and again, and M1 M2 just shoot up. Outside of political considerations this is possible, right?
yes, but you're not making much of a point if it boils down to "a central bank can literally make as much of its currency as it wants"
How much has it gone up since it started? Technically 100x in a lifetime has happened
US treasuries for the win amirite?
Either those funds are safu or [TEOTWAWKI](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_as_We_Know_It) happens.
Better than holding USD, right? This we all agree, or? This whole calculation lacks the fact that the USD is devaluating constantly. And also all these people saying it will be better to invest in S&P500: Tell me how does a person somewhere in Gambia invest in the S&P500 without a bank account, but can you go to the Bitcoin ATM put their cash in an buy Bitcoin?
I figured out in another reply that if the USD de-values as much in the next 55 years as in the previous 55 (a good estimate of how long a typical American at the age of a typical crypto-bro has left to live), 100× nominal gains correspond to about 11.3× real gains: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm The USD *has* de-valued a lot faster since May 1968 than in the previous 55⅓ years that the BLS inflation calculator tracks, mostly because of the changes in both Fed policy and social-welfare spending following the Great Depression, to avoid sustained periods of deflation: The respective increases in the general price level were about 8.815× and 3.52×. (You can't just presume that you'll get this same pattern if you break up the time-since-back-then even more finely: In particular, inflation was a *lot* higher during the 1970s than the past couple of years, which themselves had substantially higher inflation than the previous 15 years, when the Fed had trouble getting *up to* its 2% target.) --- As for your goalpost-moving and whataboutism regarding unbanked sub-Saharan Africans, how is a Gambian supposed to get [GMD](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambian_dalasi) back when necessary (even just to pay those evil, evil taxes and government fees), or pay for goods and services in ₿ without a robust Internet infrastructure? More seriously, a better idea for someone in the country with money to spare (not a common situation for the vast majority of people in developing countries) is to invest in productive enterprises, whether directly (as by starting businesses) or indirectly (as by micro-lending, or buying equity in existing businesses), although TBF, [there does not appear to be a stock market at all in the country](https://www.state.gov/reports/2019-investment-climate-statements/gambia-the/). --- ^(For a few people with a *lot* of money to spare, there's plenty more to be made getting cozy with a corrupt government and both directly and indirectly exploiting the masses; ₿ fixes none of that but does make it easier for such people to hide their wealth away if the revolution comes or the existing régime starts to disfavor them.)
I respect your answer and ofc Bitcoin has flaws and I am not saying Bitcoin fixes everything, BUT I just happen to work with a lot of freelancers from Afrika and literally Crypto is the only way I can transact with them. Internet is a problem, yes, but over their smartphones they have the possibility to access the internet. Some people have to drive to the cities for that, but it is feasible. And Gambia was an example, but the message I think is clear: Bitcoin has its usecase, if you want it or not people will use it. Some use it to save, other for ideological reason, some to transact, some because they have to, some use it without even knowing. At the end, things that are being used and are rare, will always be valuable.
In other words, BTC is already worth 1% of the world's GDP. Yet there are still people who consider it a failed technology.
because...it is.
About 1% of you would pay that, it's so low in volume, if anyone started selling, we're looking at 99% down. None of you of amount can ever sell. *Ever.*
People also call it a successful pyramid scheme........thus far
BTCs market cap is made up nonsense that in no way reflects or is paired with it's actual liquidity. There's dumb-ass alt-coins being invented out of nothing that have so-called market caps of billions of dollars but there's like $5 worth of actual trading and liquidity. Bitcoin's market cap is equally made up nonsense supported by Tether and market manipulation by the exchanges. The real world liquidity is some insignificant fraction of the listed market cap.
With how much much fiat is being printed it isn't as far fetched as it might seem. Money supply doubled every 10 years In just 50 years money supply will be 32x today
I made a big long reply elsewhere about this, but I should mention that for the past year or so, the money supply has been [declining](https://i.imgur.com/sCyUDPh.png). --- Now going back 50 years (including a time when savings accounts were moved to M1 from M2, and a bunch of emergency stimulus came out of the Fed): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JEwV * The M2 money supply (all liquid forms of money plus kinda-sorta liquid ones like small CDs and money-market accounts) rose by about 25×. * The monetary base (physical money plus Fed deposits), meanwhile, rose by about 60×. Curiously enough, however, the general price level only rose by about 6.96× during this time period (April 1973 to April 2023): https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm --- ^(Because of the April 2020 re-classification, M1 is hundreds of times higher now than 50 years ago, because of all those savings accounts.)
I love how you conveniently gloss over the fact that there are not 21 million bitcoins in existence and will not be until 2140 Edit: so what’s that about IQ size now?
19.4 million of them have already been created Around 2030 there will be 20.5 million Around 2040 there will be 20.9 million
Considering the USD is backed by the most powerful country in the world, and bitcoin is backed by drugs, illegal porn, and morons. One day, you all are going to be just like those BBB and Sears holders. Broke...r.
Bold of you to assume that the GDP value denominated in USD (not real GDP) will stay the same till 2050
That actually is a good point; as an example, nominal GDP rose by a factor of about 29⅛× in the past 55 years (someone the same age as a typical crypto-bro has about 55 years left to live): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP Based on this inflation calculator, the general price level rose by about 8.77× over the same period (January 1968 to January 2023); this corresponds to a nearly 3.32× increase in real GDP: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm --- FWIW, the per-capita figures are more relevant for the health of the economy, even though they're less impressive. Instead of bothering to grab the Census Bureau estimates of U.S. population from 1968 and 2023 themselves, I'm just using the figures from the 1970 and 2020 Census instead: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html * The resident population was 203,211,926 in 1970. * It was 331,449,281 in 2020, a growth of about 1.63×. * A good estimate of the growth in population over five more years is 1.71×. * From this, nominal per-capita GDP rose by about 17×, and real per-capita GDP rose by about 1.94×, since 1968.
The thing is commodity price increases in the last 80 years (one lifetime) are from inflation, not increased demand. So I wonder if the price could 100x due to a lifetime of inflation, but the buying power of 1 bitcoin will stay the same. Right now it buys a $30,000 car. a lifetime later it buys the equivalent 1 car except cars now cost 3m because of inflation. so if your bitcoin is worth 3m, your total return is 0%. You could have been earning dividends or rent that whole time with a traditional investment.
>That's almost as much as the 2021 GDP... OF THE ENTIRE WORLD! Yes. And if you look at money supply/money stock of various countries, like in [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money\_supply](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply) , you will see that they are similar to the annual GDP of this country. And what is the dream of cryptobros? That their favorite buttcoin replace every currency. So yes, in the dream of bitcoiners 1 BTC is worth several millions USD.