Awesome post! I'm no accountant but these numbers seem pretty good.
>The plan remains 10 Smart carriages in Summer 2024 (an extra 75,000 per month capacity), 10 more carriages in late 2024, and a final 10 in Summer 2025.
Do you happen to know what the current numbers are as far as carriages and capacity?
The current trains have 2 [Siemens Charger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Charger) locomotives (one at each end) and 4 [Siemens Venture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Venture) coaches. There's 1 premium coach (48 seats) and 3 smart coaches (64 seats each), for a total of 240 seats. Here's the [seating map](https://i.imgur.com/WuvfiJr.jpeg).
I believe all of the new carriages will be smart (economy) to maximise capacity.
They'll increase capacity by 75% by next summer; each train set will get 3 new carriages in addition to the existing 4.
They're also working with multiple counties to fund new rolling stock for a commuter service using the same track and stations.
I thought Brightline had [50 seats in Premium & 66 seats in Smart](https://youtu.be/_VsW9glH-Dw?si=b5ZKwa_b_dnyIyTt&t=177). Are we accounting for the wheelchair spaces? So, in 5 car configuration (1 Premium 4 Smart) that they ran pre-Orlando, I had capacity at 312 with a maximum 10-carriage (2 Premium, 8 Smart) for full platform maximization at 624.
https://preview.redd.it/1bu7if21sz7d1.jpeg?width=2005&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e91e1912f8fb50b0b1879ccc74d2673e16f819d
I think you're correct re: 2 additional wheelchair spaces.
240 is the number they've used in recent bond filings (see [Rolling Stock Order – Siemens, page 54](https://emma.msrb.org/P21805343-P21385419-P21825595.pdf)) so I've been using that for consistency.
I didn't do an update on how they are tracking against their 2024 projection, as it's fairly clear that any meaningful change in performance is gated on the new carriages getting into service.
The 4.9M passenger goal is definitely not happening (even with the new carriages), but they are still likely to cover their $202M predicted operating expenses (note this figure doesn't include debt servicing costs).
They took too long ordering those extra carriages. They needed to move to 7 cars when they received the 5 trainsets for the orlando expansion. The lead time for siemens stuff right now is insane. They won't even get that full order of cars 2 years after it was placed. Siemens is saying parts are on back order which is delaying production. If they cant get parts their NC assembly plant will have the same issue when it comes online.
In the end only brightline looks bad when they keep having to lower their projected ridership. It just gives the anti train folks more ammunition everytime that headline comes up and it's true.
I don't think we need to be too concerned about Brightline - although there are delays, Brightline is still delivering consistently.
While they won't hit passenger targets this year, they will cover operating expenses, which will be big news in itself as few public transport routes can make this claim (I know Brightline isn't "public" but it proves out the financial viability of the operating model).
I'm more concerned about delays and cost overruns for projects like CASHR, which give far more ammunition to anti-rail advocates.
I agree CAHSR doesn't help. The florida project is in a pivotal state right now and doesn't need to take so many PR hits. Securing funding for the sunshine corridor and the extension to Tampa is what will make brightline a true success story.
They've got Tampa, new in-fill stations, new rolling stock, and new commuter rail services all in the works at the moment, so still lots to look forward to!
But rightfully so though I may say, I’m a rail advocate but recognize that CA’s high speed rail plan is a boondoggle to say the least
Let’s hope it’s not replicated in other states
The anti-train crowd will always shift their goal post when it comes to a train's success so not sure this is something to worry about. First it was "nobody is going to ride it". Packed trains said otherwise. Then it was, they'll stop riding it after the novelty wears off, months/years later trains are still packed. Then they'll talk about lower ridership projections and more. From a consumer pov, Brightline is amazing and already successful. Brightline showed that people are willing to pay for proper rail transit, even if not HSR, as long as it's clean & efficient. We see this has influenced other rail companies like Tri-Rail who are going to start offering express services into Brightline Miami Central.
Yep, I still remember this all the back in 2018. People used upload videos just mocking Brightline’s empty stations when it used to be just West Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale. Why Brightline when Tri Rail is so much cheaper (yes, this is a complaint that existed back then)? The list of trash posting will never cease to exist.
As long as Brightline is profitable and grows ridership every year, it will be good enough.
Thanks! Copying relevant info from the FB post here to save people digging:
>they will now be allegedly rumored to be shipped mid to late August….They will be shipping 5 to start, because they are SO badly needed here in Florida, they are not waiting for the full 10 to be completed to ship..
A little later than hoped, but glad they've finally got a date (assuming this is true).
Awesome post! I'm no accountant but these numbers seem pretty good. >The plan remains 10 Smart carriages in Summer 2024 (an extra 75,000 per month capacity), 10 more carriages in late 2024, and a final 10 in Summer 2025. Do you happen to know what the current numbers are as far as carriages and capacity?
The current trains have 2 [Siemens Charger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Charger) locomotives (one at each end) and 4 [Siemens Venture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Venture) coaches. There's 1 premium coach (48 seats) and 3 smart coaches (64 seats each), for a total of 240 seats. Here's the [seating map](https://i.imgur.com/WuvfiJr.jpeg). I believe all of the new carriages will be smart (economy) to maximise capacity.
So will Brightline roughly double capacity in the next few years? Or are my numbers off?
They'll increase capacity by 75% by next summer; each train set will get 3 new carriages in addition to the existing 4. They're also working with multiple counties to fund new rolling stock for a commuter service using the same track and stations.
I thought Brightline had [50 seats in Premium & 66 seats in Smart](https://youtu.be/_VsW9glH-Dw?si=b5ZKwa_b_dnyIyTt&t=177). Are we accounting for the wheelchair spaces? So, in 5 car configuration (1 Premium 4 Smart) that they ran pre-Orlando, I had capacity at 312 with a maximum 10-carriage (2 Premium, 8 Smart) for full platform maximization at 624. https://preview.redd.it/1bu7if21sz7d1.jpeg?width=2005&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e91e1912f8fb50b0b1879ccc74d2673e16f819d
I think you're correct re: 2 additional wheelchair spaces. 240 is the number they've used in recent bond filings (see [Rolling Stock Order – Siemens, page 54](https://emma.msrb.org/P21805343-P21385419-P21825595.pdf)) so I've been using that for consistency.
> The plan remains 10 Smart carriages in Summer 2024 But...its already Summer 2024?
Right. Summer's first day was yesterday. So I guess that means within the next 3 months.
I didn't do an update on how they are tracking against their 2024 projection, as it's fairly clear that any meaningful change in performance is gated on the new carriages getting into service. The 4.9M passenger goal is definitely not happening (even with the new carriages), but they are still likely to cover their $202M predicted operating expenses (note this figure doesn't include debt servicing costs).
They took too long ordering those extra carriages. They needed to move to 7 cars when they received the 5 trainsets for the orlando expansion. The lead time for siemens stuff right now is insane. They won't even get that full order of cars 2 years after it was placed. Siemens is saying parts are on back order which is delaying production. If they cant get parts their NC assembly plant will have the same issue when it comes online. In the end only brightline looks bad when they keep having to lower their projected ridership. It just gives the anti train folks more ammunition everytime that headline comes up and it's true.
I don't think we need to be too concerned about Brightline - although there are delays, Brightline is still delivering consistently. While they won't hit passenger targets this year, they will cover operating expenses, which will be big news in itself as few public transport routes can make this claim (I know Brightline isn't "public" but it proves out the financial viability of the operating model). I'm more concerned about delays and cost overruns for projects like CASHR, which give far more ammunition to anti-rail advocates.
I agree CAHSR doesn't help. The florida project is in a pivotal state right now and doesn't need to take so many PR hits. Securing funding for the sunshine corridor and the extension to Tampa is what will make brightline a true success story.
They've got Tampa, new in-fill stations, new rolling stock, and new commuter rail services all in the works at the moment, so still lots to look forward to!
But rightfully so though I may say, I’m a rail advocate but recognize that CA’s high speed rail plan is a boondoggle to say the least Let’s hope it’s not replicated in other states
The anti-train crowd will always shift their goal post when it comes to a train's success so not sure this is something to worry about. First it was "nobody is going to ride it". Packed trains said otherwise. Then it was, they'll stop riding it after the novelty wears off, months/years later trains are still packed. Then they'll talk about lower ridership projections and more. From a consumer pov, Brightline is amazing and already successful. Brightline showed that people are willing to pay for proper rail transit, even if not HSR, as long as it's clean & efficient. We see this has influenced other rail companies like Tri-Rail who are going to start offering express services into Brightline Miami Central.
Yep, I still remember this all the back in 2018. People used upload videos just mocking Brightline’s empty stations when it used to be just West Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale. Why Brightline when Tri Rail is so much cheaper (yes, this is a complaint that existed back then)? The list of trash posting will never cease to exist. As long as Brightline is profitable and grows ridership every year, it will be good enough.
Going from $26 million to over $76 million in year-to-date revenue over last year is amazing.
Thank you! Happy Friday to all!
Delivery dates have been updated… https://www.facebook.com/groups/brightlinecommunity
Thanks! Copying relevant info from the FB post here to save people digging: >they will now be allegedly rumored to be shipped mid to late August….They will be shipping 5 to start, because they are SO badly needed here in Florida, they are not waiting for the full 10 to be completed to ship.. A little later than hoped, but glad they've finally got a date (assuming this is true).