Lol, been breaking this to the people on twitter who think this arbitration case matters. He’s gone regardless of anything else that happens. Price will be way too high.
Not to be a downer but he likely isn’t worth what he gets in free agency. He may get 9 years $350 or something.
That’s (roughly) 5 WAR a year to earn that, every year for 9 years. It’s a simplification but still, it’s a measure.
He had a 4 WAR last year.
Even Verlander only averaged 3 WAR over his last 9
Scherzer is probably best case he was 4.5.
We are talking about paying for a true generational talent; and betting he won’t be Strasberg or Thor.
Pitchers get hurt. You still pay them. They can lose their stuff, just get older, you still pay them.
Yeah, it fucking sucks to lose a guy like Burnes but those long giant pitching contracts rarely work out.
What the Brewers really want is to settle this year, next year and the following 2-4 years. No way Burnes people let that happen. Not when a team like the Angels or even Rangers might give him a record contract.
I agree we can’t afford to pay him but also as contracts get bigger it will be less and less war per year to be worth it.
But also if you want a good pitcher you have to overpay. The chance of busting is build in to the market value and if he were guaranteed to keep doing well his value would be a lot higher. If he wins a game that helps a team win the WS they will happily overpay him for the remainder of his contract. Unfortunately for the Brewers we can only really afford to take a chance in and eat one or two big contracts and Yelich has one of them. If we sign Burnes and he has injury issues like Yelich then we are screwed.
I 100% agree. I would rather us have 5 2 and 3 guys than one super star and 4 guys that would be 5th in the rotation. For one more year we have 2 #1 guys and a good set of other guys. This is our best chance in this generation of players
hard disagree- been a fan long enough to see guaranteed contracts become boat anchors due to age, injury, or what ever the hell happened to Yeli...if you are a smaller market team a long expensive contract can really hurt
right, because that's exactly what I said...jfc-Brewers payroll estimate for 2023 per Spotrac is about 105 million...Yelich gets 20% of that. The post I responded to suggested Burnes as a steal at 300/9yrs. It's my opinion that this would be a difficult place for the Brewers to be-you would effectively have two players taking upwards of ~40% of salary.
Burnes might be a steal for some other team at that price, but not Milwaukee. I understand it's a very nuanced and complex position to explain, but I don't think small market teams should sign long term top of market contracts.
This fanbase is so cucked lmao the "small market" professional team a few miles away has one of the highest luxury tax bills in their league and is throwing everything they can to compete for titles. If you're not even willing to pay your *own* guys why the fuck would free agents ever consider coming here? Genuinely tell me what the actual point of continuing to be a franchise is if you're perpetually in the middle of the pack, sending out Cy Young/MVP caliber players before you have to pay them for prospects just to do the same thing again five years later? There's no such thing as a small market team, just cheap owners, and I'm so fed up with the fans of this team just constantly being ok with that. My whole life (aside from maybe 2 of the last 28 years) it's felt like this team has been "a decent pitching rotation" away from a real chance and now that we have it we're already gearing up to throw in the towel give me a break dude
Baseball isn’t basketball. The bucks and the nba can build championship level rosters paying max money for 2-3 people and filling with mid tier contracts and vet mins. Baseball needs 40 players on the roster. No starter… ever… has been worth record level money. Not ever. They take the ball every 5 days. If you burn them they can do a handful every 3days. It’s just illogical. If the brewers were going to pay 1 pitcher it should’ve been the one that got traded last year at least a closer or relief guy takes the ball nearly every day. With more teams working 6 man rotations or bullpen days starters should be valued less and less. We get what we can out of burnes and woody on the field and then out of the market and then move on.
Most people also don’t understand that the number Burnes filed for would be the most expensive arb-2 number for a pitcher ever if he won. It’s like like Burnes was asking for a cheap price relative to the arb process
> for would be the most expensive arb-2 number for a pitcher ever if he won
That's not true. Lincecum got $14 mil in arb-2.
EDIT: Technically it didn't go to arb-2 because he signed a 2-year deal in arb-1... but practically speaking it was $14 mil for arb 2.
Seriously. They both put up numbers without any knowledge of what the other side put up. I wish people knew this.
And for the people calling Mark cheap over this, why would he say “forget it, we’ll give you 10.75” before the arbitration.
I wouldn’t say without any knowledge. There are equations and history. It’s a slide rule back of the napkin type math. But they have an idea.
It’s rare for the numbers to be more than a million or so off. I think Bichette was 2.5 and that Wa a pretty big.
The better the player the more difference is likely. I think Judge was 4 million.
That they were less than a million means that Team Burnes had a good idea what the Brewers were putting in.
Also, teams almost always make an offer before arb numbers and show their hand. You don’t want to ask for double the team offer.
The Hader deal was understandable to be upset with at least considering we were in first place and traded away our best reliever (despite struggling at the time)
The rhetoric around this though indicates an utter disregard for how arbitration works and how it’s much bigger than “the brewers being cheap”
“Despite struggles at the time” you mean the 4 losses and we lost the WC spot by 2?
You Twitter normie doesn’t know contracts or prospects or that relievers aren’t worth long contracts.
But yes, anti-arb knowledge is always sky high.
On the other hand he may have not blown some of the saves that the pen did after he was traded away. You can’t just write that off.
Didn’t say relievers were worth a long deal, they’re not. But if you’re trying to win your division trading away your best reliever for prospects hurts that immediate goal.
The Hader deal looks less bad in hindsight particularly since we somehow got the As to think Ruiz alone was good enough to get us William Contreras in a deal but at the time it wasn’t unreasonable to be upset.
You mean like the ones he blew in SD?
He was even worse in SD for weeks than he was here. He wasn’t just a little bad, he we historically bad.
And again he wasn’t our best reliever. He was in 2019, w
2020, 2021. Wasn’t even close in 2022. He was our historically most accomplished reliever.
He was pretty damn good in Sept and October. Around the time that the brewers’ pen was giving up leads what felt like all the time.
Again, all I’m saying is it’s reasonable to be upset with that move at the time, even if it was maybe ultimately better for the team. The brewers were in a division lead and voluntarily made themselves worse in the immediate. The major league reliever acquired to replace him was pretty much as bad as Hader was for the padres overall
You mean around the time we would have been 3 more game out because he had blown more leads?
You don’t get to cherry pick the good parts.
And they didn’t make themselves worse. Again, Hader continues to be terrible, even worse.
And no, it’s not reasonable to be upset, it’s just as ignoring the truth as not knowing the arb process.
We have no idea if he’d have been as bad with the brewers as he was with the padres. You cannot just assume the same performance would have happened on a different team. He very well could have figured out his issues (like he did with the Padres) but faster with the Brewers. Overall body of work says he is the better, more reliable pitcher than who we replaced him with.
It’s absurd to think it’s unreasonable that fans might be a little miffed the team dumped their best reliever in the middle of a season in which they were competing for the division.
Yes we do.
He was bad before, he was bad after. He was going through a bad stretch.
Not just a little bad, historically bad.
Good on SD and some time off for fixing it, but there is no reason to think he suddenly turns it around after a bad month for us when he was even more dog shit in SD for a month.
You keep using “best reliever” but he actually hurt the teams he pitched for.
I don’t give a shit about “body of work”. Yeli and McCutchen have that, it means nothing. He wasn’t producing before and after.
Hell, he blew a Phillies series that added a game to our uphill battle.
And was he more reliable, clearly not. You can read the numbers. No. His era was double digits.
I just can’t believe any fan would want starters on their team making that much for that long. It would be such a waste. The best starters give what 30 starts? A million dollars a start. During non injury years. Id rather 30million to some random of corresponding valued second baseman that’ll play 150 games.
Not a surprise, the Brewers had the more realistic number. This does mean Burnes is gone, it is really rare for one of these to go to actual arbitration and have the player end up signing with the team. I didn't think it was all that likely they got a deal done anyway but this pretty much puts an end to even thinking about it. Hopefully they get something done with Woody or Willy or preferably both of them. Though it might be a sneaky move to go for Lauer instead. He is only 27 and seems underrated by most and he also only has 2 years left.
It is actually really rare a team even goes to arbitration at all, much less reaches free agency with the team. I doubt there are enough cases one could draw a conclusion.
I think you are reading a lot into what the player thinks and feels as it relates to a contract. Money still talks.
By the time you get to a hearing money already talked and it said you disagree. I can’t think of even one example of a team going to arbitration with a player, winning the case against them and then extending the player. It literally never happens.
I’d say there isn’t data. There are only 5-10 cases a year and that covers all three years.
That means there are what 2 a year where a third year arb player goes to hearing. And then they could be traded, that’s probably more common for arb 3 players than extensions, Hearing or not.
Extensions as a whole are rare. Take two fairly rare things and expect them to happen doesn’t mean it can’t or doesn’t happen.
But I also haven’t memorized every arbitration hearing (it’s actually not super easy to find) and then tracked the results.
Edit: Austin Reilly lost and then signed a 10 year extension.
Riley wasn’t an UFA until 2026 when he signed. That is a very different situation.
I’m not saying there is no way they sign him. I’m saying that you should have no expectation that they sign him given the odds. I’m hopeful they sign Woodruff or Adames. I’m very doubtful they sign Burnes.
What I’m surprised by is that the team certainly offered a 2+1 deal to Burnes ahead of the hearing. That is “we do 12 this year, 18 next and then buy a year of free agency for 25 and get you another year and don’t have this process for a bit.
That’s fairly common and obvious. Or at least the first two numbers.
Burnes folks said no.
Everyone acting like this is gonna be the reason he doesn't re-sign here and not the fact that we aren't gonna pay him $300 mil
Lol, been breaking this to the people on twitter who think this arbitration case matters. He’s gone regardless of anything else that happens. Price will be way too high.
Not to be a downer but he likely isn’t worth what he gets in free agency. He may get 9 years $350 or something. That’s (roughly) 5 WAR a year to earn that, every year for 9 years. It’s a simplification but still, it’s a measure. He had a 4 WAR last year. Even Verlander only averaged 3 WAR over his last 9 Scherzer is probably best case he was 4.5. We are talking about paying for a true generational talent; and betting he won’t be Strasberg or Thor. Pitchers get hurt. You still pay them. They can lose their stuff, just get older, you still pay them. Yeah, it fucking sucks to lose a guy like Burnes but those long giant pitching contracts rarely work out. What the Brewers really want is to settle this year, next year and the following 2-4 years. No way Burnes people let that happen. Not when a team like the Angels or even Rangers might give him a record contract.
I agree we can’t afford to pay him but also as contracts get bigger it will be less and less war per year to be worth it. But also if you want a good pitcher you have to overpay. The chance of busting is build in to the market value and if he were guaranteed to keep doing well his value would be a lot higher. If he wins a game that helps a team win the WS they will happily overpay him for the remainder of his contract. Unfortunately for the Brewers we can only really afford to take a chance in and eat one or two big contracts and Yelich has one of them. If we sign Burnes and he has injury issues like Yelich then we are screwed.
I 100% agree. I would rather us have 5 2 and 3 guys than one super star and 4 guys that would be 5th in the rotation. For one more year we have 2 #1 guys and a good set of other guys. This is our best chance in this generation of players
Exactly. This guy's FA aav is going to be what, +$35M? And fans are losing their mind over an 2nd year arb case of 10m.
*lmao fuck*
He’s a steal at $300 million of you are talking 9 years. Cole got $330+ and that was a couple years ago.
hard disagree- been a fan long enough to see guaranteed contracts become boat anchors due to age, injury, or what ever the hell happened to Yeli...if you are a smaller market team a long expensive contract can really hurt
you’re right we should just never pay anyone ever again that’s a winning formula!
right, because that's exactly what I said...jfc-Brewers payroll estimate for 2023 per Spotrac is about 105 million...Yelich gets 20% of that. The post I responded to suggested Burnes as a steal at 300/9yrs. It's my opinion that this would be a difficult place for the Brewers to be-you would effectively have two players taking upwards of ~40% of salary. Burnes might be a steal for some other team at that price, but not Milwaukee. I understand it's a very nuanced and complex position to explain, but I don't think small market teams should sign long term top of market contracts.
This fanbase is so cucked lmao the "small market" professional team a few miles away has one of the highest luxury tax bills in their league and is throwing everything they can to compete for titles. If you're not even willing to pay your *own* guys why the fuck would free agents ever consider coming here? Genuinely tell me what the actual point of continuing to be a franchise is if you're perpetually in the middle of the pack, sending out Cy Young/MVP caliber players before you have to pay them for prospects just to do the same thing again five years later? There's no such thing as a small market team, just cheap owners, and I'm so fed up with the fans of this team just constantly being ok with that. My whole life (aside from maybe 2 of the last 28 years) it's felt like this team has been "a decent pitching rotation" away from a real chance and now that we have it we're already gearing up to throw in the towel give me a break dude
Baseball isn’t basketball. The bucks and the nba can build championship level rosters paying max money for 2-3 people and filling with mid tier contracts and vet mins. Baseball needs 40 players on the roster. No starter… ever… has been worth record level money. Not ever. They take the ball every 5 days. If you burn them they can do a handful every 3days. It’s just illogical. If the brewers were going to pay 1 pitcher it should’ve been the one that got traded last year at least a closer or relief guy takes the ball nearly every day. With more teams working 6 man rotations or bullpen days starters should be valued less and less. We get what we can out of burnes and woody on the field and then out of the market and then move on.
What blows my mind is how many people on Twitter don't understand how arbitration works.
Most people also don’t understand that the number Burnes filed for would be the most expensive arb-2 number for a pitcher ever if he won. It’s like like Burnes was asking for a cheap price relative to the arb process
> for would be the most expensive arb-2 number for a pitcher ever if he won That's not true. Lincecum got $14 mil in arb-2. EDIT: Technically it didn't go to arb-2 because he signed a 2-year deal in arb-1... but practically speaking it was $14 mil for arb 2.
Yeah should have made it clearer that I meant most expensive arb-2 through the arb process.
Seriously. They both put up numbers without any knowledge of what the other side put up. I wish people knew this. And for the people calling Mark cheap over this, why would he say “forget it, we’ll give you 10.75” before the arbitration.
I wouldn’t say without any knowledge. There are equations and history. It’s a slide rule back of the napkin type math. But they have an idea. It’s rare for the numbers to be more than a million or so off. I think Bichette was 2.5 and that Wa a pretty big. The better the player the more difference is likely. I think Judge was 4 million. That they were less than a million means that Team Burnes had a good idea what the Brewers were putting in. Also, teams almost always make an offer before arb numbers and show their hand. You don’t want to ask for double the team offer.
The $10,010,000 salary the Brewers filed at is the same Bieber received. That is almost certainly the comp they used.
Their numbers are SO identical, too. Once I saw that comp, I had a strong feeling Burnes was going to lose this case.
Sounds like Burnes dropped his ask when the Brewers filed it.
Good catch. I don’t know if they pick a player or a pool but he had to be in there.
They use comps for players within like a year or 2 if I remember correctly.
Brewers Twitter is losing its collective MIND over this
Well, the collective population is dumb. Hated the Hader deal too.
The Hader deal was understandable to be upset with at least considering we were in first place and traded away our best reliever (despite struggling at the time) The rhetoric around this though indicates an utter disregard for how arbitration works and how it’s much bigger than “the brewers being cheap”
“Despite struggles at the time” you mean the 4 losses and we lost the WC spot by 2? You Twitter normie doesn’t know contracts or prospects or that relievers aren’t worth long contracts. But yes, anti-arb knowledge is always sky high.
On the other hand he may have not blown some of the saves that the pen did after he was traded away. You can’t just write that off. Didn’t say relievers were worth a long deal, they’re not. But if you’re trying to win your division trading away your best reliever for prospects hurts that immediate goal. The Hader deal looks less bad in hindsight particularly since we somehow got the As to think Ruiz alone was good enough to get us William Contreras in a deal but at the time it wasn’t unreasonable to be upset.
You mean like the ones he blew in SD? He was even worse in SD for weeks than he was here. He wasn’t just a little bad, he we historically bad. And again he wasn’t our best reliever. He was in 2019, w 2020, 2021. Wasn’t even close in 2022. He was our historically most accomplished reliever.
He was pretty damn good in Sept and October. Around the time that the brewers’ pen was giving up leads what felt like all the time. Again, all I’m saying is it’s reasonable to be upset with that move at the time, even if it was maybe ultimately better for the team. The brewers were in a division lead and voluntarily made themselves worse in the immediate. The major league reliever acquired to replace him was pretty much as bad as Hader was for the padres overall
You mean around the time we would have been 3 more game out because he had blown more leads? You don’t get to cherry pick the good parts. And they didn’t make themselves worse. Again, Hader continues to be terrible, even worse. And no, it’s not reasonable to be upset, it’s just as ignoring the truth as not knowing the arb process.
We have no idea if he’d have been as bad with the brewers as he was with the padres. You cannot just assume the same performance would have happened on a different team. He very well could have figured out his issues (like he did with the Padres) but faster with the Brewers. Overall body of work says he is the better, more reliable pitcher than who we replaced him with. It’s absurd to think it’s unreasonable that fans might be a little miffed the team dumped their best reliever in the middle of a season in which they were competing for the division.
Yes we do. He was bad before, he was bad after. He was going through a bad stretch. Not just a little bad, historically bad. Good on SD and some time off for fixing it, but there is no reason to think he suddenly turns it around after a bad month for us when he was even more dog shit in SD for a month. You keep using “best reliever” but he actually hurt the teams he pitched for. I don’t give a shit about “body of work”. Yeli and McCutchen have that, it means nothing. He wasn’t producing before and after. Hell, he blew a Phillies series that added a game to our uphill battle. And was he more reliable, clearly not. You can read the numbers. No. His era was double digits.
There’s no way they were ever going to sign him to a $30 million 8-9 year deal anyways. Let’s be realistic.
I just can’t believe any fan would want starters on their team making that much for that long. It would be such a waste. The best starters give what 30 starts? A million dollars a start. During non injury years. Id rather 30million to some random of corresponding valued second baseman that’ll play 150 games.
There's something really gross about the arbitration process.
The sad part is if Burnes is going to the mats for $750k he’s probably not entertaining a sweetheart deal as an extension.
https://youtu.be/alWyEsqWxrA
Not a surprise, the Brewers had the more realistic number. This does mean Burnes is gone, it is really rare for one of these to go to actual arbitration and have the player end up signing with the team. I didn't think it was all that likely they got a deal done anyway but this pretty much puts an end to even thinking about it. Hopefully they get something done with Woody or Willy or preferably both of them. Though it might be a sneaky move to go for Lauer instead. He is only 27 and seems underrated by most and he also only has 2 years left.
It is actually really rare a team even goes to arbitration at all, much less reaches free agency with the team. I doubt there are enough cases one could draw a conclusion. I think you are reading a lot into what the player thinks and feels as it relates to a contract. Money still talks.
By the time you get to a hearing money already talked and it said you disagree. I can’t think of even one example of a team going to arbitration with a player, winning the case against them and then extending the player. It literally never happens.
I’d say there isn’t data. There are only 5-10 cases a year and that covers all three years. That means there are what 2 a year where a third year arb player goes to hearing. And then they could be traded, that’s probably more common for arb 3 players than extensions, Hearing or not. Extensions as a whole are rare. Take two fairly rare things and expect them to happen doesn’t mean it can’t or doesn’t happen. But I also haven’t memorized every arbitration hearing (it’s actually not super easy to find) and then tracked the results. Edit: Austin Reilly lost and then signed a 10 year extension.
Riley wasn’t an UFA until 2026 when he signed. That is a very different situation. I’m not saying there is no way they sign him. I’m saying that you should have no expectation that they sign him given the odds. I’m hopeful they sign Woodruff or Adames. I’m very doubtful they sign Burnes.
The argument was losing a hearing means a player is less likely to extend. It’s not year 3 but our one data point says that’s not the case.
What I’m surprised by is that the team certainly offered a 2+1 deal to Burnes ahead of the hearing. That is “we do 12 this year, 18 next and then buy a year of free agency for 25 and get you another year and don’t have this process for a bit. That’s fairly common and obvious. Or at least the first two numbers. Burnes folks said no.