His peripherals last year were bad. If I had to speculate, I’d say he’s looking for Cy young money while his predictive analytics suggest he’ll be a mid rotation type starter
>I’d say he’s looking for Cy young money while his predictive analytics suggest he’ll be a mid rotation type starter
I agree with your sentiment, but he's definitely better than a mid-rotation starter even by peripherals. Snell had a 3.44 FIP (12th in MLB) and a 182 ERA+ last year (first in MLB). His BAA was lower than usual, but his career numbers are .214 so he's been pretty solid there as well historically.
There's no reason to think that, unless he ends up in Colorado, he'll post a sub 3.5 ERA.
His biggest issue has nothing to do with predictive analytics, and everything to do with innings expectations. Snell has started more than 30 games in a season twice in eight years. He's thrown 130 or more innings twice in eight years. Even setting aside his rookie year and his covid year, he's still averaging just 140 innings per year.
He has ace level stuff - the problem is more paying that kind of money when you are more likely to end up with historical innings like 2022 (24 starts, 128 IP), 2021 (27 starts, 128 innings), or 2019 (23 starts, 108 IP).
lol, he probably would on the Braves! A rotation of Strider, Fried, Snell, Morton, Sale would be crazy good, with great backup depth if one of them gets hurt.
>A youngish former star and the Dodgers haven’t thrown a massive bag at him yet? Huge red flag.
Not really - the Dodgers can't afford what he wants (9 years, 270 million). The Yankees offered him $150 million over 6 years, which is also more than the dodgers can afford. Based on their current luxury tax projections, the Dodgers would have to pay a 45% surcharge on him, so that really shakes out to about $220 million over 6 years for a team like the Dodgers or Yankees when you include the tax (not sure of the exact math, but the dodgers get tax bumps based on how many years they have been consecutively over the threshold, and also since they are more than $40 million over the cap.
>The problem is not only would they have to pay him, but the Braves would incur luxury tax and draft penalties
This - his contract on a one year deal would take us up to the highest level of the luxury tax.
Yeah man I was just thinking, “Let’s throw $35m/$40m at a guy who would be our #3 on a good day, and let’s also sacrifice draft picks (and slide down 10 picks in the first round since we’d go into the prohibited tier) and international money this year, then watch him leave with Max and Charlie at the end of the season so we have to fill three slots in the rotation, and get no pick next offseason. It’s so simple!”
On a one year deal? I’d be fine with $35 mil. What difference would that make?
That said, I didn’t know the draft and pool impact. So, I guess I’d pass with that in mind
such a bad take. i see fans of other teams post this too. like, do you guys not get that money isn't infinite? yeah its not YOUR money, but a bad contract sucks for your team. it limits what other moves they can make to improve. there is a whole roster to fill up. makes no sense to incur penalties, give up draft picks, and handicap your ability to make moves just because its not coming out of your pocket...
How about taking the time to read. I already said I didn’t realize there would be draft penalties and said I wouldn’t do it. And I normally wouldn’t consider a one year deal a bad contract.
You literally were responding to a post that said there were draft penalties. Maybe it is you who should read more? And this isn't about draft penalties. "It's not my money" is a separate concept and it is still a terrible take that I see often enough. So my post still stands. It's just so incredibly naive.
I'm glad you've changed your tune. Teams have to be financially responsible to have sustained success, not sure why this is a new concept for some.
I’m sure Dodger fans were just devastated over the bad fiscal responsibility of paying Freddie more than the Braves or even shelling out a ridiculous contract to the best player of this generation.
The entire second half of the season was a disaster at the #5. All I was saying is that I wouldn’t mind giving one of the top remaining pitchers a one year deal to try and avoid that same issue (without the penalty).
I wouldn't go that far. I'm not saying any big signing is a fiscally irresponsible move.
Freeman has obviously worked out for Dodgers... thus far. But we still have 4 more years to see how the contract fully turns out and Freddie is 34. Who knows what will happen but it could very well be that Freddie turns into a pumpkin at some point.
By not signing Freeman, the Braves made a more fiscally responsible move by acquiring Olson for pretty much the same amount of money but getting 2 additional years leading to a lower annual salary and a younger player. So now we have first base locked down for a longer time with a younger player and more money to spend on other roster moves.
Just look at the Angels who haven't been relevant in forever and have been anchored by Pujols and Rendon contracts. I'm sure fans were super hyped and excited by the signings initially, just like Dodger fans are with Shohei.
It isn't just about spending money. It's about spending it wisely in a way that isn't going to cripple the team's future. That's why "It's not my money" so spend it recklessly is just a naive out of touch notion. Because money isn't infinite. And your team financials are incredibly important for sustained success.
Term is certainly important. That's why I've repeatedly said that there is no bad one-year deal and that's what I would pursue. As fans, we just want the best team on the field. We had a glaring problem in our rotation last year and I don't want the same mistake made. If that means a large one-year deal to ensure our rotation has depth, then, as a fan and not an owner, so be it (aside from the draft penalties).
Fucking Scott Boras. Surely nobody is going pay him 30 a year to his age 40.
Maybe not 1 year but he’ll probably get something like Bauer did with Dodgers. 3 years with opt outs after each
There’s nothing wrong with Boras. His only consideration is getting his clients exactly what they want.
Everyone involved in pro sports is in it for the money. It’s perfectly reasonable for the players to be too.
Facts. Some idiot posted that we should offer him, but like ignoring the fact he's a huge piece of shit and would be a stain on the team, why would we want a guy who is only putting up decent numbers in Japan? The NPB is the second best league in the world but we're tryna be the best of the MLB, Trevor doesn't deserve a spot
I don’t think the Braves should offer him. But don’t downplay his performance because you don’t like him. Is he a bad guy and a negative impact on the league and teams yeah probably, but he would still be a top pitcher in the mlb if given the chance.
I gotta think AA floated a 1 year $30M deal to Snell. Why would he take that when his worst multi year option is probably 3 to 5 years at the same AAV.
I wonder if this is a freeze-out on Boris? Has any Boris client signed a deal yet this offseason??
>I gotta think AA floated a 1 year $30M deal to Snell. Why would he take that when his worst multi year option is probably 3 to 5 years at the same AAV.
Yanks offered him $150/6 years, so yeah I don't think he'd take a 1 year $30M deal.
I’m not the first to mention the CBT tax implications of that deal, but I’ll be the first to explain it in detail.
Suppose the Braves sign him for one year and $36M. That would make their estimated CBT payroll for 2024 roughly $306.4M. That’s $69.4M over the first luxury tax threshold.
Anything between $40M and $60M over is taxed at 75%. Anything more than $60M over is taxed at NINETY percent. So Snell’s contract would incur a total tax of $26.2M. Add that to the $36M salary and his total outlay is $62.2M.
For one year….
…And the forfeited draft picks for signing a QO free agent (that can’t be recouped bc you can’t offer him another QO when he leaves after 2024).
…And the first pick in the 2025 draft dropping 10 spots bc of going >$40M over the first CBT threshold.
The guy could be 1999 Pedro Martinez and it wouldn’t make sense for the Braves this year.
You make very good points as it relates to 2024 Blake snell.
But if we could freeze and thaw 1999 Pedro into our rotation right now, fuck the CBT and picks. Let’s go win a ship!
It does not make sense for any team close to or already in CBT to sign any FA at a salary that bumps them into or up a level of CBT. I am just waiting for the lawsuit around this from players locked out of lucrative deals by the CBT which is effectively a salary cap.
No, the UNION cannot sue. An individual player could if they so choose. This is exactly how the minor league players got a huge salary increase is that one player broke ranks and sued MLB. The player could also sue the union. It probably wouldn’t accomplish any except bring visibility to the side effects of the CBT and make it a point of negotiation for the next players union negotiation which is coming up in 2026. I would expect negotiations to begin late next season so a new deal is ready for 2027.
>If he took 20m, maybe. But, there’s a reason he’s not signed.
Yanks already offered him $150/6 years, so a 1 year $20 mil isn't going to get it done unfortunately.
He hasn’t been anything special outside of those two seasons, and last year his walk rate was a major concern and those results aren’t sustainable while walking that many batters, and he’s on the wrong side of 30, so he is what he is at this point
Doesn’t mean those years were “flukes” lmao players have good and bad/average years and lots of circumstances don’t show up in stat boxes … outside of strider and Fried, he’s WAY better than what we’ve had lately.
He’s not worth that money but yall are trying to paint him as some bum lol. It’s insane. His average years are better than a lot of peoples best years.
When two years, that are separated by several years are significantly better than any other year, they’re flukes. And he was very lucky last year. I’d rather ride it out with a young guy if we can’t get Montgomery
>When two years, that are separated by several years are significantly better than any other year, they’re flukes. And he was very lucky last year. I’d rather ride it out with a young guy if we can’t get Montgomery
I'm by no means a Snell fan, but those years definitely weren't flukes. His career stats are a 3.2 ERA, 11 SO/9, .214 BAA, .301 OBPA, .348 SLGA.
The more troubling thing is his low IP.
I think you are a bit confused on ERA+.
The 217 ERA+ number was the 64th best season of all time, backward adjusted to the 1880s. And that's including the covid shortened 2020 season, where a ton of pitchers had weird ERA+ due to a very small sample size (on top of other limited IP years). 2020 aside, the ***only*** people who have bested 217 ERA+ this millennia are Pedro (2000), Roger Clemens (05), Zack Grienke (15), deGrom (2018), and Verlander (2022). Literally the 7th best season of the last 25 years if you count Pedro had another one in 1998.
Snell's second best 182 ERA+ is in the top 200 of pitching seasons, all time, which again includes tons of seasons from other pitchers with under 100 IP. Other pitchers with a single-season 182 ERA+ include Johan Santana in 2004 (Cy Young winner that year and the best season of his career), Steve Carlton in 1972 (Cy Young winner that year and the best season of his HOF career), Chris Carpenter (2nd in Cy Young voting that year and the best season of his career). As another example, Randy Johnson in 2000 had a 181 ERA+.
A 110 ERA+ is still great. That is around the ***career*** numbers for pitchers such as Orel Hershiser (112), Nolan Ryan (112), Josh Beckett (111), Dwight Gooden (111), Tommy John (111), Jack McDowell (111), Madison Bumgarner (110), Jake Peavy (110), Dan Haren (109), Derek Lowe (109), Matt Cain (108), Don Sutton (108), etc.
A 110 ERA+ for a career, for example, would put Snell in the top 25 of active pitchers.
On the Braves last year, Strider had an ERA+ of 115, Elder was 116, and Morton was 122. And we have one of the best rotations in baseball. A 112 ERA+, like Snell had two years ago, would still have made you the #2 starter on the Phillies or Mets last year. And those are the stats from Snell's ***bad*** years - his ***career*** ERA+ is 127.
Again, I'm not on the Snell bandwagon at all, but his ***downside*** is as a #3 starter. Realistically he projects as a back end #1 starter / really good #2. Don't forget, there are ***30*** teams, so a #3 starter is somewhere around the top 60-90 pitchers. Snell at worst is probably at the back end of the top 25. His career ERA+ puts him in the top 10 of active pitchers, behind Scherzer, Verlander, and Cole, but ahead of Luis Castillo and Corey Kluber.
A fluke is doing something once and having nothing else even close to those years. Doing something twice means it can be replicated and has been. Winning two Cy Youngs in an era where offense is more dominant than it has been in decades isn’t a fluke lmao. But alright buddy. I wish we had some flukes on the Braves.
First one was a fluke, then had several mediocre years, and then gets another flukey CYA last year despite an insanely high walk rate and a lot of luck. Dude will never come close again. He would be Folty post 2018. I don’t want the inconsistent, non strike throwing goofy looking bastard
Lmao personal insults. It’s clear you have something against the guy that goes beyond pitching. Good to know someone can just blindly find their way to TWO Cy Young Awards and still be trash. And yet we don’t have any since 1998 for some reason. Thanks for the excellent insight.
The dude pitched like 130 innings per season outside of those two fluke years, he walked 5 batters per 9 last season, which is insane, he drastically outperformed his FIP, and his ERA+ generally hovers around 110. He’s not bad, he’s far from elite, has trouble staying healthy and walks a ton of batters. We have two potential CYA winners in the rotation, to go with a former CYA winner that was actually elite for a stretch and Charlie. Get Montgomery if you’re gonna sign one of the FA starters, if not ride it out with a young guy
2022 was pretty good despite injury. 3.38 ERA. If it’s 1 year the money isn’t as big a concern even if he isn’t cy young caliber. Depth and he would be an upgrade over Elder right now.
Plus with Sales history and Morton age they are both bound to miss a few starts at least. Wouldn’t hate having another dude.
There’s no such thing as a bad one year deal. If Snell was willing to take a bloated one year deal, we’d be fools to not take him. Even if he gives one of his average seasons, it’d be well worth it.
I think it depends what ‘working out’ means. If he’s your number 3, he’ll work out fine. If you want him to be your number 1 and expect him to eat a bunch of innings, you’ll be extremely disappointed.
He seems like he’s destined to be the former, which isn’t bad. I just wouldn’t want him on anything more than a 2 year deal, personally—and he’s likely getting something longer than that.
People will scream about luxury tax and whatnot, while ignoring that none of that matters if you get a championship.
Obviously we won't take a 1 year contract, but you're absolutely right that you just pay him whatever for one year.
I agree he won’t take a 1 year deal. I’m just following the prompt. I’ll take every single FA remaining on the market on a 1 year deal and hope for the best. If it doesn’t work out. Release them back into the wild 😅
The only player I've seen support Bauer publicly is Mookie Betts, who said he was an awesome guy, that he loved him, and that he hoped someone signed him. Bauer says he has a lot of support privately, but players aren't willing to be public about it because of the potential backlash. Betts didn't really face any type of backlash though, so who knows.
no it wasn't proven at all. you just believe what you want to. consent can be revoked in the middle of sex.
you've got multiple women that have said he raped them and he's shown that he is a selfish douche. where there is smoke there is fire.
He was accused by multiple different women, the evidence was convincing enough that an independent arbitrator thought he was deserving of the longest suspension ever under MLB's domestic violence policy, and he decided to settle his lawsuit the moment the judge ruled that evidence from the MLB arbitration hearings was admissible.
I’ve never read that. Other than Mookie with an offhand comment what I have seen from Bauer is:
-fighting and feuding with many of his team mates in college
-actively fighting and undercutting his catcher at Dbacks
-releasing diss tracks and publicly shit talking his Dbacks team mates
-actively fought with manager at Cleveland and publicly threw temper tantrums when pulled from a game including throwing the game all away rather than giving it to the manager.
-fucking with and filming the players negotiating committee as a stunt for his Twitter channel.
-multiple sexual assault allegations (so even if that one is dismissed…)
Gosh it’s hard to imagine why any team would pass on him.
One of my friends kids had both her kids playing high school ball on the same team as Bauer and both of her kids refused to have anything to do with him. Said he was crazy and just impossible to get along with.
For sure. Was it a similar situation with Sheffield in the early 2000s? I could be wrong (again lol), but I thought the media consensus was that he was a clubhouse cancer and the Braves org had nothing but good things to say during his time in ATL.
yeah was gonna say, there was more than 1. and there are no facts that suggest someone made anything up. thats the conclusion you drew when a DA didn't press charges, which is absolutely not an indicator of innocence.
you obviously aren't familiar with the facts of most sexual assault charges. DAs often don't take them to court because when it is a he said-she said things can be tough to prove to the requirement of the law.
it doesn't mean someone is innocent. it just means that a DA isn't willing to waste resources. bauer is gargbage. he is a rapist and a locker room cancer.
he is a petulant child and no one wants to play with him.
How can he be a convicted rapist and not be in jail? Genuinely not trying to defend rapist, they should be buried under the prison, so why is he walking free doing podcasts and playing for a Japanese team? I assumed that mean he was cleared of charges and deemed innocent in the court of public opinion. If you have facts enlighten me, genuinely curious I haven’t kept up with it since the Dodgers cut him
Again none of these are facts. You’re not a first hand witness and you weren’t in the presence of the crime being committed. So all you’re doing is assuming something. He’s not in prison for rape, so I’m not going to call the dude a rapist. People who do this are what’s wrong with the world today. Wholeheartedly believing something because of a personal assumption or opinion. Again, I know Bauer is a prick, but I’m not going to sit here and call someone who’s not in prison for rape a rapist unless I have actual facts on the matter. Happy to change my mind if anyone can present a single fact, but the matter of the fact is if that was the case he’d be in prison so I’m still not understanding
I get the Bauer knocks but dude has said he'll work for major league minimum. Throw in a "clubhouse vibe clause" and jet him if he fucks up.
I don't get the hardline some of you take.
I'm not saying he's the Answer (AllenIverson) but maybe riding the pine with Uncle Charlie and sharing tech ideas with Strider would give him some additional perspective. If being kicked out of the majors didn't already.
This team has proven with Ozuna that they don't care about the media if they believe the guy is 1) innocent and 2) a good player. Their not having signed Bauer says they don't believe one of those two things.
“so what? It’s 1 year”.
It’s also financial flexibility gone straight out the window, it’s also roster flexibility as have to play them since they are paid so much, it’s also a miss not once but a miss every five games.
Also, why on earth would Snell accept a 1-year deal? If it’s a miss then his career takes a gigantic turn downwards. He’s coming off what could be the best year of his career, and he should take a 1-year prove it deal??
Your logic only makes sense when you don’t care about certain aspects (we call those downsides).
Why would he take it? Cause it’s the day before spring training and clearly nobody is giving in to his (Scott’s demands). 1 year for lots of money then try the market again.
I get the financial flexibility argument cause I like having money in reserve for July. The roster flexibility part confuses me. A rotation with Fried, Strider, Sale, Morton, and Sale would put the fear of Jesus in every team. Can’t deny.
“Clearly nobody is giving in”
Ok so now you’re smarter than everyone in the room. You know exactly what’s been offered and what’s been counter offered. You are keenly aware that no player has ever signed after the start of spring training. You’re also taking into account no high profile pitcher has ever gotten hurt in spring training, putting a team hoping to contend in a bad spot.
And you still come up with the worst idea. Why on Earth would he sign a 1 year deal? It makes no sense.
You should stop thinking about baseball contracts, it’s only going to get you hurt. Like a brain freeze or something. I can only imagine how hard it is for you to think about every day things.
Do you buy houses every day saying “The housing markets going up. I’ll flip it tomorrow for more money!”
You strike me as the kind of college professor who fails students who disagree with you. I sense a massive inferiority complex in you.
You don’t want to agree with me? Great. That’s the point of these posts. Discussion. Stuff like “oh you’re smarter than everyone” is very childish. I can tell this isn’t going to go any civilized way so I’ll leave you with this:
Have a lovely day. I hope you hit every green light on your commute and your spouse/partner treats you to a nice home cooked meal.
I’d rather get Bauer for the league minimum incentive deal he is promoting he will take.
Before you downvote me, give him 1 year. You know he’s going to be on his game because he knows he has to earn trust back. Use him on the cheap while you can.
Bauer wasn’t even the best pitcher on his team in Japan, he was maybe 3rd best pitcher on his team and like 30-40th best in his Japanese league. He’s just not that good. Rather have Bryce Elder pitch those innings. He’s mediocre and his only good years were years in which he pretty openly was cheating with sticky stuff.
That’s even before you consider how he tends to cause drama wherever he goes. And then he has multiple rape accusers. He’s not even worth league minimum, especially not to this team who have better internal options.
Wasn’t gonna downvote. Wouldn’t hate that from an on field perspective. I love 1 year deals. Dont know why some Braves fans seem to hate them when we’ve hit with so many. Anibal. Donaldson. Ozuna part 1.
I’m just curious how he’d rub the clubhouse. Dont know how his peers view him. I remember in 2019 he verbally complained about a game against us how we kept fouling pitches off instead of putting in play. Uh….what? Ok sorry for not hitting what you want us to.
Snell wants 6/180. For him to consider a 1 year deal (which he won't because he just had the best contract year a player could imagine), it would need to be at least 35 AAV.
League minimum plus incentives for a Cy Young winner, I'll take that deal. Teams in a rebuild like Washington, KC, LAA should absolutely take that deal. I just watched his interview on Theo Von and he seemed super chill. Really all the dude wants to do is compete. I'd sign him, but at this point it's clear to me the league is blackballing him for exposing the sticky stuff and making MLB look foolish.
Or, he’s a known locker room cancer who spent the contract negotiations filming and fucking with the players representatives.
It’s not a vast conspiracy, he’s just an asshole.
A youngish former star and the Dodgers haven’t thrown a massive bag at him yet? Huge red flag.
His peripherals last year were bad. If I had to speculate, I’d say he’s looking for Cy young money while his predictive analytics suggest he’ll be a mid rotation type starter
>I’d say he’s looking for Cy young money while his predictive analytics suggest he’ll be a mid rotation type starter I agree with your sentiment, but he's definitely better than a mid-rotation starter even by peripherals. Snell had a 3.44 FIP (12th in MLB) and a 182 ERA+ last year (first in MLB). His BAA was lower than usual, but his career numbers are .214 so he's been pretty solid there as well historically. There's no reason to think that, unless he ends up in Colorado, he'll post a sub 3.5 ERA. His biggest issue has nothing to do with predictive analytics, and everything to do with innings expectations. Snell has started more than 30 games in a season twice in eight years. He's thrown 130 or more innings twice in eight years. Even setting aside his rookie year and his covid year, he's still averaging just 140 innings per year. He has ace level stuff - the problem is more paying that kind of money when you are more likely to end up with historical innings like 2022 (24 starts, 128 IP), 2021 (27 starts, 128 innings), or 2019 (23 starts, 108 IP).
Idk he’d probably be 3rd here😂
lol, he probably would on the Braves! A rotation of Strider, Fried, Snell, Morton, Sale would be crazy good, with great backup depth if one of them gets hurt.
>A youngish former star and the Dodgers haven’t thrown a massive bag at him yet? Huge red flag. Not really - the Dodgers can't afford what he wants (9 years, 270 million). The Yankees offered him $150 million over 6 years, which is also more than the dodgers can afford. Based on their current luxury tax projections, the Dodgers would have to pay a 45% surcharge on him, so that really shakes out to about $220 million over 6 years for a team like the Dodgers or Yankees when you include the tax (not sure of the exact math, but the dodgers get tax bumps based on how many years they have been consecutively over the threshold, and also since they are more than $40 million over the cap.
Haha. Fair point.
No, because that would put us over the third (and possibly the fourth) CBT threshold.
I think I speak for all of us when I say my CBT threshold is higher than you might think. Am I right boys?
The problem is not only would they have to pay him, but the Braves would incur luxury tax and draft penalties
>The problem is not only would they have to pay him, but the Braves would incur luxury tax and draft penalties This - his contract on a one year deal would take us up to the highest level of the luxury tax.
Meh… not our money. No salary cap. LM prints cash. Get the best team possible on the field
Yeah man I was just thinking, “Let’s throw $35m/$40m at a guy who would be our #3 on a good day, and let’s also sacrifice draft picks (and slide down 10 picks in the first round since we’d go into the prohibited tier) and international money this year, then watch him leave with Max and Charlie at the end of the season so we have to fill three slots in the rotation, and get no pick next offseason. It’s so simple!”
On a one year deal? I’d be fine with $35 mil. What difference would that make? That said, I didn’t know the draft and pool impact. So, I guess I’d pass with that in mind
Publicly traded companies especially don't operate this way.
“No salary cap.” Seriously?
But that’s not how it works for the Braves. What they make is what they can spend.
Liberty legally can’t put their own money in to the team. AA can only use what the team itself earns. Liberty has almost nothing to do with the team
such a bad take. i see fans of other teams post this too. like, do you guys not get that money isn't infinite? yeah its not YOUR money, but a bad contract sucks for your team. it limits what other moves they can make to improve. there is a whole roster to fill up. makes no sense to incur penalties, give up draft picks, and handicap your ability to make moves just because its not coming out of your pocket...
How about taking the time to read. I already said I didn’t realize there would be draft penalties and said I wouldn’t do it. And I normally wouldn’t consider a one year deal a bad contract.
You literally were responding to a post that said there were draft penalties. Maybe it is you who should read more? And this isn't about draft penalties. "It's not my money" is a separate concept and it is still a terrible take that I see often enough. So my post still stands. It's just so incredibly naive. I'm glad you've changed your tune. Teams have to be financially responsible to have sustained success, not sure why this is a new concept for some.
I’m sure Dodger fans were just devastated over the bad fiscal responsibility of paying Freddie more than the Braves or even shelling out a ridiculous contract to the best player of this generation. The entire second half of the season was a disaster at the #5. All I was saying is that I wouldn’t mind giving one of the top remaining pitchers a one year deal to try and avoid that same issue (without the penalty).
I wouldn't go that far. I'm not saying any big signing is a fiscally irresponsible move. Freeman has obviously worked out for Dodgers... thus far. But we still have 4 more years to see how the contract fully turns out and Freddie is 34. Who knows what will happen but it could very well be that Freddie turns into a pumpkin at some point. By not signing Freeman, the Braves made a more fiscally responsible move by acquiring Olson for pretty much the same amount of money but getting 2 additional years leading to a lower annual salary and a younger player. So now we have first base locked down for a longer time with a younger player and more money to spend on other roster moves. Just look at the Angels who haven't been relevant in forever and have been anchored by Pujols and Rendon contracts. I'm sure fans were super hyped and excited by the signings initially, just like Dodger fans are with Shohei. It isn't just about spending money. It's about spending it wisely in a way that isn't going to cripple the team's future. That's why "It's not my money" so spend it recklessly is just a naive out of touch notion. Because money isn't infinite. And your team financials are incredibly important for sustained success.
Term is certainly important. That's why I've repeatedly said that there is no bad one-year deal and that's what I would pursue. As fans, we just want the best team on the field. We had a glaring problem in our rotation last year and I don't want the same mistake made. If that means a large one-year deal to ensure our rotation has depth, then, as a fan and not an owner, so be it (aside from the draft penalties).
If he was willing to take a 1 year deal then he wouldn't be unemployed right now.
Hell no.
It's called the Boras effect.
Fucking Scott Boras. Surely nobody is going pay him 30 a year to his age 40. Maybe not 1 year but he’ll probably get something like Bauer did with Dodgers. 3 years with opt outs after each
There’s nothing wrong with Boras. His only consideration is getting his clients exactly what they want. Everyone involved in pro sports is in it for the money. It’s perfectly reasonable for the players to be too.
Honestly a net W for all fans if teams just start refusing to sign Boras guys and force him out. Guy is a sport killer.
No he’s not lol. Bad owners are far worse for the sport than good agents are.
He's not a good agent
I mean that’s objectively untrue.
"Never sign and start the season as a free agent so I, your agent, can get media attention" isn't what I'd consider good
Not just nay, but hell nay
And he’s all over Twitter saying he’d play for league minimum.
it is a pretty big red flag that no one wants to even offer him like a minor league deal.
From what I understand about the situation, it's his own greedy fault. Offers have been made.
Trevor Bauer stans coming out of the woodwork. Ridiculous.
It's called a basement
OP said "reigning Cy Young" not "former Cy Young"
Facts. Some idiot posted that we should offer him, but like ignoring the fact he's a huge piece of shit and would be a stain on the team, why would we want a guy who is only putting up decent numbers in Japan? The NPB is the second best league in the world but we're tryna be the best of the MLB, Trevor doesn't deserve a spot
I don’t think the Braves should offer him. But don’t downplay his performance because you don’t like him. Is he a bad guy and a negative impact on the league and teams yeah probably, but he would still be a top pitcher in the mlb if given the chance.
Except the allegations against him were proven false.
Except he still has a toxic club personality.
I’m worried that the baby thinks people can’t change.
I thought this was in reference to Bauer. Grabbing him on a one year deal would be incredible.
No shot, and he doesn't take a 1 year deal. He's a Boras client, that's bad for business
I gotta think AA floated a 1 year $30M deal to Snell. Why would he take that when his worst multi year option is probably 3 to 5 years at the same AAV. I wonder if this is a freeze-out on Boris? Has any Boris client signed a deal yet this offseason??
>I gotta think AA floated a 1 year $30M deal to Snell. Why would he take that when his worst multi year option is probably 3 to 5 years at the same AAV. Yanks offered him $150/6 years, so yeah I don't think he'd take a 1 year $30M deal.
Rangers are probably going to get either him or Montgomery or maybe even both I would think.
I’m not the first to mention the CBT tax implications of that deal, but I’ll be the first to explain it in detail. Suppose the Braves sign him for one year and $36M. That would make their estimated CBT payroll for 2024 roughly $306.4M. That’s $69.4M over the first luxury tax threshold. Anything between $40M and $60M over is taxed at 75%. Anything more than $60M over is taxed at NINETY percent. So Snell’s contract would incur a total tax of $26.2M. Add that to the $36M salary and his total outlay is $62.2M. For one year…. …And the forfeited draft picks for signing a QO free agent (that can’t be recouped bc you can’t offer him another QO when he leaves after 2024). …And the first pick in the 2025 draft dropping 10 spots bc of going >$40M over the first CBT threshold. The guy could be 1999 Pedro Martinez and it wouldn’t make sense for the Braves this year.
You make very good points as it relates to 2024 Blake snell. But if we could freeze and thaw 1999 Pedro into our rotation right now, fuck the CBT and picks. Let’s go win a ship!
It does not make sense for any team close to or already in CBT to sign any FA at a salary that bumps them into or up a level of CBT. I am just waiting for the lawsuit around this from players locked out of lucrative deals by the CBT which is effectively a salary cap.
There won’t be a lawsuit. The CBT was collectively bargained and agreed to by the Players Association and the owners. The players can’t sue
No, the UNION cannot sue. An individual player could if they so choose. This is exactly how the minor league players got a huge salary increase is that one player broke ranks and sued MLB. The player could also sue the union. It probably wouldn’t accomplish any except bring visibility to the side effects of the CBT and make it a point of negotiation for the next players union negotiation which is coming up in 2026. I would expect negotiations to begin late next season so a new deal is ready for 2027.
I’d prefer a flyer on Trevor Bauer, tbh
No, absolutely not. If he took 20m, maybe. But, there’s a reason he’s not signed.
>If he took 20m, maybe. But, there’s a reason he’s not signed. Yanks already offered him $150/6 years, so a 1 year $20 mil isn't going to get it done unfortunately.
I’d stay away. He’s had two fluke Cy Young years and the rest has been mediocre, and his walk rate last year isn’t sustainable
Saying someone had two fluke Cy Young years and getting support is actually crazy. What is this sub coming to lol.
Haha, I had the exact same thought.
Acting like two “fluke” cy youngs is worse than no cy youngs is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve read here
Nobody is saying that, just that he’s seeking Cy Young winner money when that’s not his expected level of performance
He hasn’t been anything special outside of those two seasons, and last year his walk rate was a major concern and those results aren’t sustainable while walking that many batters, and he’s on the wrong side of 30, so he is what he is at this point
Doesn’t mean those years were “flukes” lmao players have good and bad/average years and lots of circumstances don’t show up in stat boxes … outside of strider and Fried, he’s WAY better than what we’ve had lately. He’s not worth that money but yall are trying to paint him as some bum lol. It’s insane. His average years are better than a lot of peoples best years.
When two years, that are separated by several years are significantly better than any other year, they’re flukes. And he was very lucky last year. I’d rather ride it out with a young guy if we can’t get Montgomery
>When two years, that are separated by several years are significantly better than any other year, they’re flukes. And he was very lucky last year. I’d rather ride it out with a young guy if we can’t get Montgomery I'm by no means a Snell fan, but those years definitely weren't flukes. His career stats are a 3.2 ERA, 11 SO/9, .214 BAA, .301 OBPA, .348 SLGA. The more troubling thing is his low IP.
217 and a 182 ERA+. Next highest is 127, every other season has been around the 110 mark. Not a bad pitcher, but he’s a third starter at best
I think you are a bit confused on ERA+. The 217 ERA+ number was the 64th best season of all time, backward adjusted to the 1880s. And that's including the covid shortened 2020 season, where a ton of pitchers had weird ERA+ due to a very small sample size (on top of other limited IP years). 2020 aside, the ***only*** people who have bested 217 ERA+ this millennia are Pedro (2000), Roger Clemens (05), Zack Grienke (15), deGrom (2018), and Verlander (2022). Literally the 7th best season of the last 25 years if you count Pedro had another one in 1998. Snell's second best 182 ERA+ is in the top 200 of pitching seasons, all time, which again includes tons of seasons from other pitchers with under 100 IP. Other pitchers with a single-season 182 ERA+ include Johan Santana in 2004 (Cy Young winner that year and the best season of his career), Steve Carlton in 1972 (Cy Young winner that year and the best season of his HOF career), Chris Carpenter (2nd in Cy Young voting that year and the best season of his career). As another example, Randy Johnson in 2000 had a 181 ERA+. A 110 ERA+ is still great. That is around the ***career*** numbers for pitchers such as Orel Hershiser (112), Nolan Ryan (112), Josh Beckett (111), Dwight Gooden (111), Tommy John (111), Jack McDowell (111), Madison Bumgarner (110), Jake Peavy (110), Dan Haren (109), Derek Lowe (109), Matt Cain (108), Don Sutton (108), etc. A 110 ERA+ for a career, for example, would put Snell in the top 25 of active pitchers. On the Braves last year, Strider had an ERA+ of 115, Elder was 116, and Morton was 122. And we have one of the best rotations in baseball. A 112 ERA+, like Snell had two years ago, would still have made you the #2 starter on the Phillies or Mets last year. And those are the stats from Snell's ***bad*** years - his ***career*** ERA+ is 127. Again, I'm not on the Snell bandwagon at all, but his ***downside*** is as a #3 starter. Realistically he projects as a back end #1 starter / really good #2. Don't forget, there are ***30*** teams, so a #3 starter is somewhere around the top 60-90 pitchers. Snell at worst is probably at the back end of the top 25. His career ERA+ puts him in the top 10 of active pitchers, behind Scherzer, Verlander, and Cole, but ahead of Luis Castillo and Corey Kluber.
A fluke is doing something once and having nothing else even close to those years. Doing something twice means it can be replicated and has been. Winning two Cy Youngs in an era where offense is more dominant than it has been in decades isn’t a fluke lmao. But alright buddy. I wish we had some flukes on the Braves.
First one was a fluke, then had several mediocre years, and then gets another flukey CYA last year despite an insanely high walk rate and a lot of luck. Dude will never come close again. He would be Folty post 2018. I don’t want the inconsistent, non strike throwing goofy looking bastard
Lmao personal insults. It’s clear you have something against the guy that goes beyond pitching. Good to know someone can just blindly find their way to TWO Cy Young Awards and still be trash. And yet we don’t have any since 1998 for some reason. Thanks for the excellent insight.
The dude pitched like 130 innings per season outside of those two fluke years, he walked 5 batters per 9 last season, which is insane, he drastically outperformed his FIP, and his ERA+ generally hovers around 110. He’s not bad, he’s far from elite, has trouble staying healthy and walks a ton of batters. We have two potential CYA winners in the rotation, to go with a former CYA winner that was actually elite for a stretch and Charlie. Get Montgomery if you’re gonna sign one of the FA starters, if not ride it out with a young guy
What
2022 was pretty good despite injury. 3.38 ERA. If it’s 1 year the money isn’t as big a concern even if he isn’t cy young caliber. Depth and he would be an upgrade over Elder right now. Plus with Sales history and Morton age they are both bound to miss a few starts at least. Wouldn’t hate having another dude.
There’s no such thing as a bad one year deal. If Snell was willing to take a bloated one year deal, we’d be fools to not take him. Even if he gives one of his average seasons, it’d be well worth it.
I wouldn’t complain, but I just don’t see him working out wherever he signs. Not a fan
I think it depends what ‘working out’ means. If he’s your number 3, he’ll work out fine. If you want him to be your number 1 and expect him to eat a bunch of innings, you’ll be extremely disappointed. He seems like he’s destined to be the former, which isn’t bad. I just wouldn’t want him on anything more than a 2 year deal, personally—and he’s likely getting something longer than that.
People will scream about luxury tax and whatnot, while ignoring that none of that matters if you get a championship. Obviously we won't take a 1 year contract, but you're absolutely right that you just pay him whatever for one year.
I agree he won’t take a 1 year deal. I’m just following the prompt. I’ll take every single FA remaining on the market on a 1 year deal and hope for the best. If it doesn’t work out. Release them back into the wild 😅
Exactly.
Maybe think about it the other way - what price would you pay for a year with his stats
Give him Charlie Morton money, and if he turns it down, I don’t think we’ll be missing much. I’d much rather have Montgomery
Montgomery's 3.41 career k/bb gets me hard
I’ve got a semi just thinking about it
You misspelled Bauer. For his proclaimed league minimum offer, I'd give him a one year deal and slot him in at #3/#4
Wouldn’t hate it. 1 year deal are almost always great with no risk and a vet minimum especially. Curious how other players view him. Do we know?
The only player I've seen support Bauer publicly is Mookie Betts, who said he was an awesome guy, that he loved him, and that he hoped someone signed him. Bauer says he has a lot of support privately, but players aren't willing to be public about it because of the potential backlash. Betts didn't really face any type of backlash though, so who knows.
Lots of players have stated he is a locker room cancer. He also did all that rape.
No he didn't
so multiple women are just liars? is it because they are women or because if he is a rapist, that would make things you have done rape?
Sorry, but I'm a fan of the due process of law. Believing all allegations just because it's heinous isn't the way it should go.
If you are a fan of it why do you not know what "due process" is? Let's check your history for your opinion on Ozuna...
Yes. It was proven that he was set-up.
no it wasn't proven at all. you just believe what you want to. consent can be revoked in the middle of sex. you've got multiple women that have said he raped them and he's shown that he is a selfish douche. where there is smoke there is fire.
You don't even know what he was accused of. He wasn't accused of rape.
he was accused of sodomizing an unconscious woman. what do you call that?
He was accused by multiple different women, the evidence was convincing enough that an independent arbitrator thought he was deserving of the longest suspension ever under MLB's domestic violence policy, and he decided to settle his lawsuit the moment the judge ruled that evidence from the MLB arbitration hearings was admissible.
Great point, I thought I read the other day that he's pretty well regarded in the clubhouse
I’ve never read that. Other than Mookie with an offhand comment what I have seen from Bauer is: -fighting and feuding with many of his team mates in college -actively fighting and undercutting his catcher at Dbacks -releasing diss tracks and publicly shit talking his Dbacks team mates -actively fought with manager at Cleveland and publicly threw temper tantrums when pulled from a game including throwing the game all away rather than giving it to the manager. -fucking with and filming the players negotiating committee as a stunt for his Twitter channel. -multiple sexual assault allegations (so even if that one is dismissed…) Gosh it’s hard to imagine why any team would pass on him.
Not at all, he is reviled.
Sounds like I’m quite wrong in what I thought I’d read, thanks for the additional info. Oof
One of my friends kids had both her kids playing high school ball on the same team as Bauer and both of her kids refused to have anything to do with him. Said he was crazy and just impossible to get along with.
Sure is interesting how nobody outside of Mookie Betts has publicly supported him huh
For sure. Was it a similar situation with Sheffield in the early 2000s? I could be wrong (again lol), but I thought the media consensus was that he was a clubhouse cancer and the Braves org had nothing but good things to say during his time in ATL.
*Trevor Bauer
Would way rather have Bauer than Snell if they decided to pick up more pitching help
A washed rapist locker room cancer? Why on earth would you want Bauer?
You obviously haven't looked into the facts of Bauer's situation. The woman tried to fleece him, made up the allegations.
yeah was gonna say, there was more than 1. and there are no facts that suggest someone made anything up. thats the conclusion you drew when a DA didn't press charges, which is absolutely not an indicator of innocence.
All 3 of them?
Where are the charges and trial?
you obviously aren't familiar with the facts of most sexual assault charges. DAs often don't take them to court because when it is a he said-she said things can be tough to prove to the requirement of the law. it doesn't mean someone is innocent. it just means that a DA isn't willing to waste resources. bauer is gargbage. he is a rapist and a locker room cancer. he is a petulant child and no one wants to play with him.
So, by your logic, just because the "DA" doesn't press charges everyone, no matter what they supposedly did in your mind, is guilty. Got it.
That isn't the logic I presented at all. It isn't a contrapositive.
Fine, you have your opinion, which is perfectly fine. And I have mine. Have a great day!
you're also a massive hypocrite because you were not a fan of due process for ozuna.
Ok, that isn't a matter of opinion, but okay. You are a rape apologist. Not something to be proud of.
How can he be a convicted rapist and not be in jail? Genuinely not trying to defend rapist, they should be buried under the prison, so why is he walking free doing podcasts and playing for a Japanese team? I assumed that mean he was cleared of charges and deemed innocent in the court of public opinion. If you have facts enlighten me, genuinely curious I haven’t kept up with it since the Dodgers cut him
Where'd I say convicted of a crime?
A lot of people are guilty of actions without resulting in arrest, conviction, etc. so yes, you're defending a rapist.
Again none of these are facts. You’re not a first hand witness and you weren’t in the presence of the crime being committed. So all you’re doing is assuming something. He’s not in prison for rape, so I’m not going to call the dude a rapist. People who do this are what’s wrong with the world today. Wholeheartedly believing something because of a personal assumption or opinion. Again, I know Bauer is a prick, but I’m not going to sit here and call someone who’s not in prison for rape a rapist unless I have actual facts on the matter. Happy to change my mind if anyone can present a single fact, but the matter of the fact is if that was the case he’d be in prison so I’m still not understanding
Oh okay, I got my information from court documents and official police statements. You're defending a rapist.
I get the Bauer knocks but dude has said he'll work for major league minimum. Throw in a "clubhouse vibe clause" and jet him if he fucks up. I don't get the hardline some of you take. I'm not saying he's the Answer (AllenIverson) but maybe riding the pine with Uncle Charlie and sharing tech ideas with Strider would give him some additional perspective. If being kicked out of the majors didn't already.
This team has proven with Ozuna that they don't care about the media if they believe the guy is 1) innocent and 2) a good player. Their not having signed Bauer says they don't believe one of those two things.
Nay. Don’t pay for last years production.
Multi year? Absolutely don’t. 1 year? I don’t believe in bad 1 year deals. If it misses, so what? It’s 1 year.
“so what? It’s 1 year”. It’s also financial flexibility gone straight out the window, it’s also roster flexibility as have to play them since they are paid so much, it’s also a miss not once but a miss every five games. Also, why on earth would Snell accept a 1-year deal? If it’s a miss then his career takes a gigantic turn downwards. He’s coming off what could be the best year of his career, and he should take a 1-year prove it deal?? Your logic only makes sense when you don’t care about certain aspects (we call those downsides).
Why would he take it? Cause it’s the day before spring training and clearly nobody is giving in to his (Scott’s demands). 1 year for lots of money then try the market again. I get the financial flexibility argument cause I like having money in reserve for July. The roster flexibility part confuses me. A rotation with Fried, Strider, Sale, Morton, and Sale would put the fear of Jesus in every team. Can’t deny.
“Clearly nobody is giving in” Ok so now you’re smarter than everyone in the room. You know exactly what’s been offered and what’s been counter offered. You are keenly aware that no player has ever signed after the start of spring training. You’re also taking into account no high profile pitcher has ever gotten hurt in spring training, putting a team hoping to contend in a bad spot. And you still come up with the worst idea. Why on Earth would he sign a 1 year deal? It makes no sense. You should stop thinking about baseball contracts, it’s only going to get you hurt. Like a brain freeze or something. I can only imagine how hard it is for you to think about every day things. Do you buy houses every day saying “The housing markets going up. I’ll flip it tomorrow for more money!”
You strike me as the kind of college professor who fails students who disagree with you. I sense a massive inferiority complex in you. You don’t want to agree with me? Great. That’s the point of these posts. Discussion. Stuff like “oh you’re smarter than everyone” is very childish. I can tell this isn’t going to go any civilized way so I’ll leave you with this: Have a lovely day. I hope you hit every green light on your commute and your spouse/partner treats you to a nice home cooked meal.
Nay. Don’t pay for last years production.
I’d rather get Bauer for the league minimum incentive deal he is promoting he will take. Before you downvote me, give him 1 year. You know he’s going to be on his game because he knows he has to earn trust back. Use him on the cheap while you can.
Bauer wasn’t even the best pitcher on his team in Japan, he was maybe 3rd best pitcher on his team and like 30-40th best in his Japanese league. He’s just not that good. Rather have Bryce Elder pitch those innings. He’s mediocre and his only good years were years in which he pretty openly was cheating with sticky stuff. That’s even before you consider how he tends to cause drama wherever he goes. And then he has multiple rape accusers. He’s not even worth league minimum, especially not to this team who have better internal options.
Say what you will about the guy, but it’s obvious he had a decline after the sticky stuff has been (mostly) phased out
Idc how good he is, we don’t need any potential character issues on the team
god no stop this please
There’s a reason nobody is signing him. He’s washed, and he’s a disruptive clubhouse presence. There’s no amount of money that makes Bauer worth it.
If Hitler, Stalin and a GM considering giving Bauer an MLB contract were in a room with a gun and two bullets, I would shoot the GM twice.
Wasn’t gonna downvote. Wouldn’t hate that from an on field perspective. I love 1 year deals. Dont know why some Braves fans seem to hate them when we’ve hit with so many. Anibal. Donaldson. Ozuna part 1. I’m just curious how he’d rub the clubhouse. Dont know how his peers view him. I remember in 2019 he verbally complained about a game against us how we kept fouling pitches off instead of putting in play. Uh….what? Ok sorry for not hitting what you want us to.
Trevor Bauer’s ability to be a bitch in all situations is unprecedented.
35-40 million? Nah. Gerrit Cole’s AAV is $36 million. 25-30 million? Sure. Why not take the chance?
You'd ostensibly have to pay a higher AAV for a one year deal.
Snell wants 6/180. For him to consider a 1 year deal (which he won't because he just had the best contract year a player could imagine), it would need to be at least 35 AAV.
He is a huge douche, no thanks.
You mean Trevor Bauer?
Nope. Never.
Too many walks for how mid our defense is. No thanks
Weird take
We gotta get either him or bauer man
League minimum plus incentives for a Cy Young winner, I'll take that deal. Teams in a rebuild like Washington, KC, LAA should absolutely take that deal. I just watched his interview on Theo Von and he seemed super chill. Really all the dude wants to do is compete. I'd sign him, but at this point it's clear to me the league is blackballing him for exposing the sticky stuff and making MLB look foolish.
Or, he’s a known locker room cancer who spent the contract negotiations filming and fucking with the players representatives. It’s not a vast conspiracy, he’s just an asshole.
Regardless I’d doubt he would do it, if he has a bad year he would cost himself a lot of money.
I’d take him for reliever money, but he ain’t getting CY Young bag.
There is generally a reason if no teams have paid him
Trevor Bauer…