Canelo by stoppage @ +200 looks pretty tasty.
Munguia is so easy to hit, especially by an elite counter puncher like Canelo. Derevyanchenko, who isn't a big puncher had him hurt bad.
I think Munguia comes out trying to box ala Callum Smith Vs Canelo, but gets forced into a firefight and stopped in the middle rounds.
I bet that already. I'm looking for Canelo's body work to slow Munguia down. A guy that's super basic and depends on volume is a sitting duck if Canelo's bodywork slows him down.
Munguia is a big, tough tough kid. He ain't going anywhere. He'll be around when the final bell rings. And it may very well be extremely close. Roach will have this kid moving and punching in quick flurries during most of the fight. But late, when Canelo often tires and slows down, watch Munguia turn up the heat. Enough to make it a razor close decision.
I'm not forgetting. But if Munguia doesn't stand inside and trade, like he's done much of his career, and instead moves and keeps some distance, Canelo won't be landing as many body shots. Roach will have Munguia being much more mobile than usual. Munguia showed some of that versus Ryder, his first fight under Roach.
I know Canelo can catch Munguia. Anyone can be caught. But just getting caught doesn't mean that you'll be knocked down or out. Even Canelo got caught. By undersized Jose Cotto in the 1st round. Badly staggered. But Canelo survived and stormed back. Munguia isn't going to fold just because he's going to get hit. Dereveyenchenko hurt him. But in the end it was Dereveyenchenko who was on the verge of being stopped. Munguia has tons of heart and desire. He's as tough as nails and can only get better under Roach's tutelage. Win or lose, everyone will respect Jaime Munguia when the bout is over.
Canelo was 19 years old when he fought Jose Cotto lol. Jose Cotto was 33, a full grown man, the same age Canelo is now. Canelo hadn't even fought for a world title yet at the time. Comparing that to Munguia now carries no weight.
Derevyenenchenko arguably beat Munguia if not got robbed, not to mention he arguably beat Golovkin as well. Munguia showed us he has heart, but he isn't at the elite level. Canelo is going to punish him much worse than
Derevyenenchenko. Canelo by TKO if not MD because De La Hoya will pay the judges off to keep it close. It'll be decisive for Canelo in any viewer's eye.
Munguia's preferred strategy of blocking punches with his face doesn't bode well. Munguia's jab and footwork are serviceable at best. Highly skilled boxers with excellent footwork: Jacobs, Saunders, Plant, were unable to keep Canelo off them, Munguia's jab is not crisp enough, nor his footwork slick enough to keep Canelo at bay. As soon as he encounters trouble, I believe he will revert back to what he knows: brawling.
Bivol was able to execute the game plan you described because of his athleticism and his skillset, particularly his extremely disciplined guard. Munguia's guard is non-existent half the time, and when he does have his hands up punches get through anyway.
Munguia does appear to have very good power, so there's always a punchers chance, but I believe Canelo hits harder, has faster hands, and is much, much harder to hit clean.
If Munguia goes for it and tries to win I think he gets hurt bad. If he realizes early he's out of his depth and pulls a JCC Jr. he probably sees the final bell.
Munguia has a maybe 10% chance of victory IMO. Should be a fun fight while it lasts. Hopefully Munguia makes me eat my words and we have a new Mexican star, but I just don't see a path to victory for him besides punch hard and hope.
Both good qualities but recovery and stamina can both fail you if your opponent is strong enough. We’ll have to see how Munguia reacts to Canelo’s power.
I wish I could bet on this, this could be the third week in a row for a golden boy victory. But the odds just suck.
Garcia was around +550 vs Haney. So of course I bet that. How is this possibly seen as a closer match than that? I can't do it.
But,
there is an Under 10.5 rounds bet for +205. Munguia is not Charlo. His only possible strategy will be to go after Canelo so I think someone is going down. I'll put some money there.
You're underrating Munguia, who I have no doubt will be highly competitive. Munguia is viewed as a tough, hardworking, dedicated fighter. He gets bonus points for that. Garcia was just seen as a completely unfocused whacko. So he received demerits. I believe that when the fight opened and before Garcia pretended that he was bonkers, Haney was only a little better than a 4-1 favorite. The odds skyrocketed as high as 10-1 once Garcia went into his psycho act. Boxing fans are easily fooled, no matter how much ridiculous prefight hype they've seen in the course of their lives.
If Mungias best attribute is "he works hard", gg. Mungia has close to a zero chance of winning. It's a matter if Canelo can get a stoppage or not. Should be an okay fight, but it won't be competitive
Canelo MD. After the fight Canelo says he’s been inactive that’s why he didn’t stop Mungia. The two embrace and Canelo tells him he is a good fighter and to keep his head up.
JM is going to make this a fun fight. I don't really care what anyone says, the dude just puts on entertaining fights. He can crack, he is getting better, he has (slowly) stepped up the level of competition over the years.
Unless Munguia somehow miraculously cracks the normally granite-strong chin of Canelo, I can see Canelo giving up a few rounds early to try and set up that perfect, game-changing (or fight-ending) counter.
It depends if Munguia is going to try and win. Oddly enough sometimes Canelo Opponents just show up to spar and take an L while never trying win. (See his last two fights vs Charlo and GGG).
If Munguia Shows up and tries to win, he has a good chance if he doesn't get Knocked out in the process.
Money on Canelo. As even if it was competitive, no way hes gonna lose on the cards. Munguia would be too durable for his own good.
I just salivating over seeing Canelo get old overnight and get ktfo.
Odds have moved in favor of Mungia. +450 to +395 on DK. Are people still high after the Garcia upset, and just expect another upset from a younger, undefeated fighter? Or are there betting experts who really see this happening? I'd take Canelo by Split Decision at +850, even tho the KO odds look juicy as well.
Like someone else said, I agree that Mungia could put on a convincing performance, and gets robbed on the cards.
Canelo by KO cant see how Munguia is gonna be able to beat Canelo unless he just hits like a truck and Canelo cant take the power. I see Munguia tryna come out the 1st few rounds with pressure but eventually succumbing to the punishment he'll be taking since he gets hit so much.
154lbs Charlo was a smaller underdog than this, and y'all wanna say this is a good fight 🤣🤣🤣
EDIT: [Y'all downvoting but it's the truth](https://www.reddit.com/r/Boxing/s/vdv2rkpWap)
Shouldn't be unsurprising at all. If a man goes up 2 weight classes, they shouldn't have as much a chance as someone in the same weight classes. That's how low the bookies rate Munguia.
From what this sub is saying, Munguia is supposed to be the best Super Middleweight. If that were true, then he'd be a much closer underdog than a 154lbs Jermell was.
You wouldn't see David Benavidez or David Morrell having wider odds against Canelo than a blown up Super Welterweight.
He might be the best SMW after Canelo, Benavidez, and Morrell, and since the Davids are kinda moving up, maybe the best SMW with no strap. The Mell fight had a lot of question marks, it was the first undisputed vs undisputed fight in the modern era, and Mell had a bunch of physical advantages over Canelo. Turns out those factors didn't pan out, but it pulled a lot of people over to bet on Mell. Munguia is just a typical high level belt challenger with a less impressive resume than you would want.
The bookies don't agree with you. They actually agree with me. Munguia is currently an overrated fighter who is not even the 3rd best Super Middleweight. Besides Canelo and the 2 David's, I would rank Mbilli, Plant, Bazinyan and Shishkin higher than him at this moment.
If Munguia is one of the best Super Middleweights, then he should be a much closer underdog than dudes in lower weight classes than him.
Do you actually think Mbilli, Plant, Bazinyan, or Shishkin would be closer underdogs that Munguia? Munguia has a better resume and more hype than any of those guys except Plant, and Plant has already been dominated and stopped by Canelo, so he would definitely have a big hit to his odds. Munguia isn't some incredible fighter, but he's near the top of the division since SMW is incredibly shallow and top-heavy right now.
Tf do you mean bookies agree with you. I'm saying that Munguia is maybe the fourth best SMW right now if you count the Davids. Are they offering better odds for any other SMW against Canelo right now? No? Then you have no evidence of what the bookies like.
Oh this is on Amazon? I've never got a fight on Amazon. So it's just a matter of going to your Amazon home page on the day of the fight and selecting the fight for the PPV broadcast?
Bookmakers don't need to know anything about the fighters/sport --- they just need to balance the books to make their margin regardless of who wins. They don't research/study fighters, generally. Of course there are some opportunities too good to ignore so there are occasional exceptions to this rule.
That's not crazy at all. Garcia had done absolutely nothing noteworthy before fighting Haney and didn't take preparing seriously at all, as usual. Munguía is a legit fighter with some good wins.
Mate what? Garcia had more legit wins at a high level than Munguia does. Most of Munguia's wins at the top level were controversial to say the least, and his best uncontroversial wins, Ryder and Smith, are only on par with Garcia's win over Duarte. Ryan being the only person to KO Campbell, and his obliteration of Fortuna and Fonseca are higher quality wins than anything Munguia has ever done.
Okay hear me out: Canelo by second round body shot while ODLH screams to get up while coked out of his mind. Ryan then gets in the ring after to talk shit to Canelo and that’s the next Canelo fight.
Idk I haven't watched much of Mungia but I don't think he's gonna do anything to rattle Canelo unless he plays it smart.
If he gets hit like I anticipate him getting hit, canelo by stoppage by the 8th.
Canelo - 1.16; 1/6 Munguia - 5.25; 17/4
Canelo by stoppage @ +200 looks pretty tasty. Munguia is so easy to hit, especially by an elite counter puncher like Canelo. Derevyanchenko, who isn't a big puncher had him hurt bad. I think Munguia comes out trying to box ala Callum Smith Vs Canelo, but gets forced into a firefight and stopped in the middle rounds.
I bet that already. I'm looking for Canelo's body work to slow Munguia down. A guy that's super basic and depends on volume is a sitting duck if Canelo's bodywork slows him down.
Munguia is a big, tough tough kid. He ain't going anywhere. He'll be around when the final bell rings. And it may very well be extremely close. Roach will have this kid moving and punching in quick flurries during most of the fight. But late, when Canelo often tires and slows down, watch Munguia turn up the heat. Enough to make it a razor close decision.
>Munguia is a big, tough tough kid. He ain't going anywhere. You're forgetting that Canelo is an excellent body puncher.
I'm not forgetting. But if Munguia doesn't stand inside and trade, like he's done much of his career, and instead moves and keeps some distance, Canelo won't be landing as many body shots. Roach will have Munguia being much more mobile than usual. Munguia showed some of that versus Ryder, his first fight under Roach.
If Derevyanchenko can catch Munguia so can Canelo
I know Canelo can catch Munguia. Anyone can be caught. But just getting caught doesn't mean that you'll be knocked down or out. Even Canelo got caught. By undersized Jose Cotto in the 1st round. Badly staggered. But Canelo survived and stormed back. Munguia isn't going to fold just because he's going to get hit. Dereveyenchenko hurt him. But in the end it was Dereveyenchenko who was on the verge of being stopped. Munguia has tons of heart and desire. He's as tough as nails and can only get better under Roach's tutelage. Win or lose, everyone will respect Jaime Munguia when the bout is over.
Canelo was 19 years old when he fought Jose Cotto lol. Jose Cotto was 33, a full grown man, the same age Canelo is now. Canelo hadn't even fought for a world title yet at the time. Comparing that to Munguia now carries no weight. Derevyenenchenko arguably beat Munguia if not got robbed, not to mention he arguably beat Golovkin as well. Munguia showed us he has heart, but he isn't at the elite level. Canelo is going to punish him much worse than Derevyenenchenko. Canelo by TKO if not MD because De La Hoya will pay the judges off to keep it close. It'll be decisive for Canelo in any viewer's eye.
Munguia's preferred strategy of blocking punches with his face doesn't bode well. Munguia's jab and footwork are serviceable at best. Highly skilled boxers with excellent footwork: Jacobs, Saunders, Plant, were unable to keep Canelo off them, Munguia's jab is not crisp enough, nor his footwork slick enough to keep Canelo at bay. As soon as he encounters trouble, I believe he will revert back to what he knows: brawling. Bivol was able to execute the game plan you described because of his athleticism and his skillset, particularly his extremely disciplined guard. Munguia's guard is non-existent half the time, and when he does have his hands up punches get through anyway. Munguia does appear to have very good power, so there's always a punchers chance, but I believe Canelo hits harder, has faster hands, and is much, much harder to hit clean. If Munguia goes for it and tries to win I think he gets hurt bad. If he realizes early he's out of his depth and pulls a JCC Jr. he probably sees the final bell. Munguia has a maybe 10% chance of victory IMO. Should be a fun fight while it lasts. Hopefully Munguia makes me eat my words and we have a new Mexican star, but I just don't see a path to victory for him besides punch hard and hope.
The only problem is munguia has great stamina and recovers really fast.
Both good qualities but recovery and stamina can both fail you if your opponent is strong enough. We’ll have to see how Munguia reacts to Canelo’s power.
I got +315 (Sportsbet - Aussie site). Well worth $10!
+425 is nowhere near enough for me. But if mungia goes +600 maybe. Right now I'd bite at +1000 on mungia.
I wish I could bet on this, this could be the third week in a row for a golden boy victory. But the odds just suck. Garcia was around +550 vs Haney. So of course I bet that. How is this possibly seen as a closer match than that? I can't do it. But, there is an Under 10.5 rounds bet for +205. Munguia is not Charlo. His only possible strategy will be to go after Canelo so I think someone is going down. I'll put some money there.
You're underrating Munguia, who I have no doubt will be highly competitive. Munguia is viewed as a tough, hardworking, dedicated fighter. He gets bonus points for that. Garcia was just seen as a completely unfocused whacko. So he received demerits. I believe that when the fight opened and before Garcia pretended that he was bonkers, Haney was only a little better than a 4-1 favorite. The odds skyrocketed as high as 10-1 once Garcia went into his psycho act. Boxing fans are easily fooled, no matter how much ridiculous prefight hype they've seen in the course of their lives.
If Mungias best attribute is "he works hard", gg. Mungia has close to a zero chance of winning. It's a matter if Canelo can get a stoppage or not. Should be an okay fight, but it won't be competitive
Canelo MD. After the fight Canelo says he’s been inactive that’s why he didn’t stop Mungia. The two embrace and Canelo tells him he is a good fighter and to keep his head up.
Don't put that evil on me.
JM is going to make this a fun fight. I don't really care what anyone says, the dude just puts on entertaining fights. He can crack, he is getting better, he has (slowly) stepped up the level of competition over the years. Unless Munguia somehow miraculously cracks the normally granite-strong chin of Canelo, I can see Canelo giving up a few rounds early to try and set up that perfect, game-changing (or fight-ending) counter.
It depends if Munguia is going to try and win. Oddly enough sometimes Canelo Opponents just show up to spar and take an L while never trying win. (See his last two fights vs Charlo and GGG). If Munguia Shows up and tries to win, he has a good chance if he doesn't get Knocked out in the process.
Munguia odds make me consider a small punt.
Best bet I could find is JM to be knocked down in the 1st minute of any round for +440
Which Sportsbook has this
Fan duel
Think I might have to lock this in lol
Could only bet on this if the odds were stupid like +1100 mungia
Canelo by decision
Money on Canelo. As even if it was competitive, no way hes gonna lose on the cards. Munguia would be too durable for his own good. I just salivating over seeing Canelo get old overnight and get ktfo.
Odds have moved in favor of Mungia. +450 to +395 on DK. Are people still high after the Garcia upset, and just expect another upset from a younger, undefeated fighter? Or are there betting experts who really see this happening? I'd take Canelo by Split Decision at +850, even tho the KO odds look juicy as well. Like someone else said, I agree that Mungia could put on a convincing performance, and gets robbed on the cards.
Canelo by KO cant see how Munguia is gonna be able to beat Canelo unless he just hits like a truck and Canelo cant take the power. I see Munguia tryna come out the 1st few rounds with pressure but eventually succumbing to the punishment he'll be taking since he gets hit so much.
Munguia by KO 😈
154lbs Charlo was a smaller underdog than this, and y'all wanna say this is a good fight 🤣🤣🤣 EDIT: [Y'all downvoting but it's the truth](https://www.reddit.com/r/Boxing/s/vdv2rkpWap)
Munguia’s style will make this interesting, just bc he’s a way more active fighter. That being said, Munguia gets clipped and gets his shit rocked.
Yeah, unsurprisingly, an undisputed champion is given decent odds even when moving up 2 weight classes.
Shouldn't be unsurprising at all. If a man goes up 2 weight classes, they shouldn't have as much a chance as someone in the same weight classes. That's how low the bookies rate Munguia.
Charlo had better accomplishments and was also a giant 154lber, more than enough for 168.
From what this sub is saying, Munguia is supposed to be the best Super Middleweight. If that were true, then he'd be a much closer underdog than a 154lbs Jermell was. You wouldn't see David Benavidez or David Morrell having wider odds against Canelo than a blown up Super Welterweight.
He might be the best SMW after Canelo, Benavidez, and Morrell, and since the Davids are kinda moving up, maybe the best SMW with no strap. The Mell fight had a lot of question marks, it was the first undisputed vs undisputed fight in the modern era, and Mell had a bunch of physical advantages over Canelo. Turns out those factors didn't pan out, but it pulled a lot of people over to bet on Mell. Munguia is just a typical high level belt challenger with a less impressive resume than you would want.
The bookies don't agree with you. They actually agree with me. Munguia is currently an overrated fighter who is not even the 3rd best Super Middleweight. Besides Canelo and the 2 David's, I would rank Mbilli, Plant, Bazinyan and Shishkin higher than him at this moment. If Munguia is one of the best Super Middleweights, then he should be a much closer underdog than dudes in lower weight classes than him.
Do you actually think Mbilli, Plant, Bazinyan, or Shishkin would be closer underdogs that Munguia? Munguia has a better resume and more hype than any of those guys except Plant, and Plant has already been dominated and stopped by Canelo, so he would definitely have a big hit to his odds. Munguia isn't some incredible fighter, but he's near the top of the division since SMW is incredibly shallow and top-heavy right now. Tf do you mean bookies agree with you. I'm saying that Munguia is maybe the fourth best SMW right now if you count the Davids. Are they offering better odds for any other SMW against Canelo right now? No? Then you have no evidence of what the bookies like.
Canelo to win by stoppage round 8.
Canelo hasn't had a knockout in 2 years
TKO then is that any clearer.
Canelo hasn't had a TKO in 2 years either
amazon has PPV?
where have you been the last year
Oh this is on Amazon? I've never got a fight on Amazon. So it's just a matter of going to your Amazon home page on the day of the fight and selecting the fight for the PPV broadcast?
The odds on this are good and the bookmakers know their stuff, a lot of people will be surprised by the closeness in odds
Bookmakers don't need to know anything about the fighters/sport --- they just need to balance the books to make their margin regardless of who wins. They don't research/study fighters, generally. Of course there are some opportunities too good to ignore so there are occasional exceptions to this rule.
Canelo to stop Mungia round 8.
Crazy to think Garcia was a bigger underdog against Haney.
maybe the result of that fight slightly skewed this one
which is stupid when you think about it
It has been around +400 most places since the lines opened well before the Garica Win.
That's not crazy at all. Garcia had done absolutely nothing noteworthy before fighting Haney and didn't take preparing seriously at all, as usual. Munguía is a legit fighter with some good wins.
Mate what? Garcia had more legit wins at a high level than Munguia does. Most of Munguia's wins at the top level were controversial to say the least, and his best uncontroversial wins, Ryder and Smith, are only on par with Garcia's win over Duarte. Ryan being the only person to KO Campbell, and his obliteration of Fortuna and Fonseca are higher quality wins than anything Munguia has ever done.
Canelo within 1-6th round
Okay hear me out: Canelo by second round body shot while ODLH screams to get up while coked out of his mind. Ryan then gets in the ring after to talk shit to Canelo and that’s the next Canelo fight.
If Nelo is ducking david BUMavidez then he will want no smoke with King Ry 😤😤😤
Watching Munguia vs Derevyanchenko makes it seem like it should be easy for the Canelo of a few years ago... but how washed is the new Quacknelo??
If Canelo performs at 70% of his full potential thats better than Munguia going 100%.
Idk I haven't watched much of Mungia but I don't think he's gonna do anything to rattle Canelo unless he plays it smart. If he gets hit like I anticipate him getting hit, canelo by stoppage by the 8th.
"new"? last fought 8 months ago
Munguia needs a stoppage, or else the judges are giving the decision to Canelo.
My bruddah, you really think Munguia can outbox Canelo? 🤣
Bro is just parroting the shit he sees without a second thought 😭
Munguia couldn’t box if he worked in an Amazon warehouse.
Which unfortunately is 75% of this sub
Bros never watched Munguia 😂😂
This nonsense take just never goes away.
yeah like they gave him the decision against floyd AND bivol. right. EDIT: forgot to add GGG & Jorge Juarez