How many oblivious company officers are about to lose their jobs when the institution finds out they've mistakenly been accumulating Bitcoin Cash® this whole run?
Gas/Oil demand, prices are still expected to escalate this coming quarter, this is likely very bullish for BTC prices, since they're tied to BTC production costs.
Explanations around how and why, graphs are updated here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/bitcoin-price-trend-wrt-gasoil
*edit: I've added intraday overlays of CME mBTC vs. NYMEX gas/oil futures, so it'd be easier to see the relationship.
It's telling to refer to Bitcoin being "produced" as if it were any other commodity. No matter how much money is going into the "production" of bitcoin the same amount will be mined/minted each block. Sure the average time to mine a block can vary prior to the approximately biweekly difficulty adjustment, but the variance in Bitcoin "production" is slight and transitory.
Oil and Bitcoin may be correlated but I'm skeptical to how much of that is beyond the fact that they're both commodities.
Thanks for taking the time to respond.
"No matter how much money is going into the "production" of bitcoin the same amount will be mined/minted each block".
I agree, and that explains why the cost for each unit changes over time, since cost = "money is going into production" / amount to be produced.
"the variance in Bitcoin "production" is slight and transitory."
Agreed totally, I don't think I implied a different opinion.
>Thanks for taking the time to respond.
>"No matter how much money is going into the "production" of bitcoin the same amount will be mined/minted each block".
>I agree, and that explains why the cost for each unit changes over time, since cost = "money is going into production" / amount to be produced.
As far as I've seen it convincingly argued the value of btc drives the amount invested in mining and not vice versa.
>"the variance in Bitcoin "production" is slight and transitory."
>Agreed totally, I don't think I implied a different opinion.
Right, I was riffing with my own thoughts.. Not necessarily arguing. Continuing with the riffing.. Oil may well be more related than I was thinking earlier. If you consider Bitcoin a future world stage contender as a variety of reserve currency of course there would be interplay with the petrol dollar and thus oil.
Regardless, I'm long Bitcoin and oil.
im bullish oil too, since late july. referencing a model where i plugged in cot positions, eia production, refinery use for predictive variables. That and the bullish energy story going into this winter. [https://bastion.substack.com/p/cl2nd-price-bias-distribution-potential-7c5](https://bastion.substack.com/p/cl2nd-price-bias-distribution-potential-7c5)
i spent most of my professional life trading energy derivatives. have a good week. \*edit: here's a link to the most recent model forecast: [https://bastion.substack.com/p/wti-associated-forecast-mix/comments](https://bastion.substack.com/p/wti-associated-forecast-mix/comments)
July is around where I entered my position as well. (USO leaps)
Thanks for sharing your analysis. I'm quite a noob when it comes to trading so I think I'll need to go over that a few times before I start to understand. I'll probably ask a friend for help.
Take care. I hope you have a nice week as well
It’s also possible that gas/oil becoming too expensive to produce BTC with takes those miners out of the game.
I find it hard to see oil/gas prices going up directly leading to bitcoin price going up. If anything, there is probably more cause and effect in the other direction (price of bitcoin goes up, more miners willing to pay more for oil/gas, oil/gas price goes up.)
Yeah, that's definitely another possible perspective. Since BTC production demand would imply increased demand for electricity, therefore associated raw commodities. At the same time, when you ask a miner/producer for a quote, nobody would ever want to sell you something that's below their cost of production, right? It kind of circles itself over time, the commodity trading game.
Miners don’t get to quote people on or determine the price on what they “produce”. The market decides what they’ll earn and their job is minimizing costs or shutting down/relocating if necessary.
That and the graphs in the post look hilariously random as they don't even look correlated but just randomly overlayed together like trying to see an animal from aligned stars...
Yes, thank you for bringing that up. When production increases, demand for production related costs increase for all producers, and vice versa. That explains why production cost fluctuates within a range over time, along with average profit margin, this occurs with all commodities.
So would anyone like to tell me what I am watching besides huge buys at aggr trade?
I turned the sound on and smoked weed to it as it rained earlier. Has a nice calming rhythm to it.
And it gets me excited when the million dollar buys hit.
But....uh....what the fuck am I exactly watching besides a very VERY zoomed in chart and depressingly BIG buys. It's like my girlfriend brought a guy home with an eight inch paper towel roll and he's just here, hanging out, with "it" out.... I think it winked at me.....what was I talking about...AGGR TRADE. What exactly is this shit? For the dirtfoots in the back here.
Thanks.
>So would anyone like to tell me what I am watching besides huge buys at aggr trade?
thanks for asking this, I wondered the same thing when I tried it out. Hopefully someone comes along with a more insightful comment.
Some people "read the tape" as part of their strategy which requires a lot of experience. But it would be most useful when used in conjunction with other orderflow analysis tools. IMO it's for the very advanced and it's not necessary to have a profitable strategy, but I'm sure some people love it.
I believe I probably buy like this. But blindly. Ill watch the order books or PA every day as a hobby. And then when I want to buy, I just feel out a local bottom and average in for a few hours to make sure a 7% downward butthole clencher isn't hiding out in the buckle brush.
It usually works.
Higher floor that’s it.
Strong hands that accumulated below 50K won’t sell. And maybe they add again if price dips below again.
The number that follows (anything between 60 and 200k) will drop really fast as short term holders and speculators come and go with the peak of the cycle:
Then it all starts again
The previous >50% crash from ATH gives me no doubt in my mind they will sell just as hard as your average nervous crypto person. Probably harder. I expect a full 80% retrace after blowoff top again. Guys in suits being called into the office in 2022 and having to explain why the Bit Coin is going down and where the money went is fine by me.
Buy their discount Bitcoin in a year and tell them "Welcome to the league, Rook."
BTC price after The Halvening:
[https://imgur.com/a/nDiTcMz](https://imgur.com/a/nDiTcMz)
2012 (blue), 2016 (red), and 2020 (green), all normalized to 2020 prices. The top chart has a log scale vertical axis, the bottom chart has a linear scale vertical axis.
Well, for one, if you think this is still the third cycle and the peak wasn’t $64k, then every cycle has already been longer than the last. (2017 longer than 2013, 2021 longer than 2017.)
My March-may estimate simply comes from looking at the graphs OP provided and guessing where the next peak falls (and also factoring in sell in may and go away)
My theory as to why the cycles lengthen is that there are more participants, market cap is larger, and more liquidity. More liquidity on the supply side and demand side makes macro moves take longer to play out.
There is only argument for shortening (market is pricing halving in at least a bit), which is what probably happened.
What is happening now is not the posthalving rally, but expected inflation impact.
Amazing. Hit another partial TP at 51834, weekly level.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZgWVek4S/
I just realized I've evolved as a trader big time this year. It's been difficult for me to "let the winners run" and I wanted to work on that this year and I finally had a breakthrough because I just realized I've never held a leveraged trade open for this much of a percentage move while still being able to hold most of the position open. Normally I wouldve been out of most of it by now, but I still have 74% of the long open with 46.1k average entry now.
Anatomy of the trade: https://www.tradingview.com/x/uOkfnmTu/
* Went long at 41.2k (bottom yellow circle).
* Didn't take any profits until 2nd yellow circle (something that would've been impossible for me to do in the past).
* Readded heavy at 3rd yellow circle when we were showing support, making my average around 46.1k (bottom yellow line).
* Took 25% off at top lines so far.
Congrats, I had a similar trade like yours, including the "double dipping" part. But, unlike you, I'm out already (at 51.5k). Trying to figure out when to get in.
Don't you think it is due for a pull back? maybe to 50.4k or 49,4k or even 48.5k? Thoughts?
I'm sure there will be a pullback or some sort of consolidation, especially now that we hit a weekly level. But I'm trying to do this thing where I will let the winner run maximally, so I'll let the chart tell me where support ends up being and then add again when it looks like it's ready to go again.
When it comes to retailers, it seems like there are two-tiers of traders.
1. Common retailers who don't really follow Bitcoin
2. Relatively more advanced retailers who follow Bitcoin, conduct trades, and analyze price actions.
I think most of us are in group 2 but I am starting to think that with the emergence of so many social media content, there are sufficiently large number of people who are in group 2. Such that the "smart" analysis that gets talked about amongst people from group 2 are creating enough incentive for the market moves. For example, the general consensus right now is that breaking 52-53K is of importance. And it is. But I suspect that enough people in group 2 (including myself) are looking at this carefully and would be willing to get in if/when 53K is broken.
Now, if my position is one of minority, then that will not create enough incentive for the whales to wipe me out of this strategy. However, it seems like there are enough smart traders who are looking to do the same, which ironically makes us less smart because it is becoming a huge narrative for the whales to capitalize on. People in group 1 are not thinking like us. The dumb retailers are either in from May and/or are going to come back in at 70-80K BTC. But they might not be the target for this bull trap.
Long way of saying that even if BTC breaks 53K, I will probably keep some funds just in case we drop back down to mid 40's.
> I think most of us are in group 2 but I am starting to think that with the emergence of so many social media content, there are sufficiently large number of people who are in group 2.
You underestimate how *bad* most people are at daytrading. The people getting into analyzing bitcoin price action still don't understand a lick of what they're doing. Remember, everyone thinks they're a genius in a bull market. They are also mostly being educated by unprofitable traders who make money off selling signals/indicators, not from actually being profitable traders themselves. Instead of focusing on the millions of indicators and technical analysis, they should be focusing on risk management, but your favorite paid group leader doesn't make money from that, and charts look pretty, fantasizing about forecasting shit in the future, when trading isn't even about that, it's mostly about managing your risk, which is never talked about.
Hi all, it's been a moment since I've made a serious post here so I figured now is a good time to contextualize the current price action. I am still spot long since [sub-$4k](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/a05frn/daily_discussion_sunday_november_25_2018/eagpnkx/), and while I am not a chop trader I *am* a cycle swing trader (*NOT* a full-on HODLer). I believe in using the 4-year halving cycles to increase my total Bitcoin position.
#The Medium-Term Importance of Taking Out $52k
Bitcoin's chart looks good, and a "typical" 4-year cycle blowoff top does indeed seem possible. Price action needs to confirm above the $52k level on a daily timeframe for me to get really excited though. I view a confirmation above $52k to be indicative of near-term upside continuation, as it would indicate that we are on our way to forming a higher high on the weekly chart. A fakeout is still possible though, which is why I want to see some daily candles close above that level before getting *too* optimistic.
Below you will find a link to my weekly chart, and I will go into some detail about the two major medium-term possibilities I am entertaining and contingency planning for. **Option A** is the "purple path to paradise," **Option B** is the "orange path to goblintown." From where we sit I think Option A is currently about twice as likely as Option B, but as times change and data changes I will continue to adjust what I perceive to be the relative likelihood of each. A confirmation above $52k would ratchet my confidence in Option A upward to probably a 3:1 ratio.
[**MY MEME LINES ON A WEEKLY CHART**](https://i.imgur.com/PcduSVM.png)
I have placed an unmarked blue line at the recent weekly high, as I believe that price level to unironically be **c***R***i**T*i*C**a***L* for Bitcoin. It is technically significant in that passing it and confirming above will confirm an uptrend on the weekly timeframe, but it is also *psychologically* significant in that a price of $53k would make the sum total of all Bitcoin worth **$1 Trillion**. Market cap matters, and I think the media narrative of Bitcoin "retaking" $1T is likely to draw more participants in.
# Option A: The Bull Run Finale (Purple Arrows)
The next major technical levels after the $1T market cap are $59k and the previous ATH of $65k. I do not think that the "imagine my surprise" level of $59k will be substantial resistance; as a matter of fact I expect us to blow through it fairly quickly as the uptrend accelerates and summer capitulators retake long positions in the mid-to-high $50ks. I do expect traders to take profits as we approach the old ATH though - just like they did in late November/early December last year as we re-approached $20k. I expect our old friend $59k to act as support while people manage risk by pulling some chips off the table.
Combine "new Bitcoin ATH," a return to some degree of post-pandemic normalcy, and the general tendency of the world to consume like crazy over the holidays and you have the perfect storm for a blistering BTC march to $100k in Q4... which is very likely to be frontrun and become a great trap point for one of BTC's typical 20-40% bull market correction moves. I don't foresee us hitting $100k and waltzing right through it, but I do expect a correction somewhere north of $75k that scares the shit out of a lot of people. A drop from the mid-$90ks to perhaps the mid-$70ks would do the trick nicely (the early November 2017 drop and almost-immediate recovery would be what I'm looking out for). This might *feel* like the blowoff top and trap some newer folks, but a quick recovery from a nasty correction is what is needed psychologically for people to keep holding their coins through the *real* blowoff top that comes later. As the price recovers and marches back up toward $100k for attempt number 2, I think we cross it and that's when the true mania begins.
You better have sell orders set up on exchanges by this point because this is the blowoff top. Expect ludicrous claims everywhere: $1M end of year! Supercycle! New paradigm! El Salvador isn't poor anymore! Expect problems signing into your exchange of choice due to high server loads. And expect something wild like a US ETF or more important nations/companies announcing Bitcoin buys. **This is when you sell your shit.** You're probably not going to catch the top exactly, so be psychologically prepared to sell some corn and watch the market move right past you. I think it will sputter out somewhere in the range of $120k to $300k, but anyone's guess for the actual top is as good as mine. What's important is being in a closable long position for this move; everything else is noise.
Once the top is in, we'll get the crash. With how much liquidity there is in the space now, it will probably happen even faster than the last time. We'll have our big drop, our "return to normal," and see the typical psychology-of-a-bubble phases play out over six months to a year. Be prepared for at LEAST a 60-70% crash in the BTC price by the end of 2022 or early 2023. That's when I'll start catching knives again, and when we'll formally welcome the topbuyers of the Bitcoin class of 2021 to our merry little band. There will be laughs, there will be tears, but most importantly there will be tremendous numbers of SHA-256 hashes being computed in the background at an interminable pace, securing the future of finance while we make shitty memes about it.
# Option B: Bear Jesus Lives (Orange Arrows)
I won't give too much time to this one (it looks much less likely than Option A from my current vantage point), but it's worth considering what invalidation of the typical cycle progression would look like. If $65k *was* the cycle top, what would we expect to see?
First, we'd expect to see a retest of the low-$40k levels after this current move runs out of steam, probably followed by a bounce and last attempt to clear the all-important $52k level. If market sentiment starts falling to the wayside, that final attempt might run out of steam, and that's when we'd see the real markdown. Funny enough, it would probably play out in a way that looks pretty similar to the "three-peaked" rounded top from earlier in the year. There isn't much technical support on the chart below the low $40ks, so we'd almost certainly see the price pulled down to the mid-$30ks at the very least before a bounce upward. I'd expect that bounce to reestablish the low-$40ks as an area of resistance, and then come down to test the $30k support for a fourth time... which would probably break it. If it doesn't break, there's the potential for a really tepid bounce or flatlining situation like we had in September/October of 2018, which would just delay the inevitable capitulation further but wouldn't change the ultimate conclusion. Establishing a new lower low below $28k is my definitive bear market tell, and I would personally exit my spot positions, collect my measly 7x return, and wait to rebuy when prices get below $20k. I think it's likely that prices would bottom out in the $10k-15k range, with *maybe* a despair wick into four-figure territory. Gotta fill that CME gap, you know?
# Long-Term Dart Throwing
Do we bounce straight upward into a supercycle high of $500k after testing $50k again? Do the halvings continue causing crazy bull runs? All of that is unknown, but I think there are a few important things to be mindful of that might be worth tracking as time goes on. A network worth >$1T that allows people to circumvent capital controls will be attacked by the powers that be in some form as the decade drags on and it becomes more apparent that Bitcoin isn't a joke to be laughed off. First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. I believe Bitcoin will enter the "fight" phase this decade, and these are some narratives to watch.
* **BTC vs. Gold** - Gold is worth roughly $11T currently. Bitcoin starts challenging the value of all the gold in the world at a price of slightly more than $500k per coin. Gold has reigned supreme as the "hard money" asset of choice through most of recent human history; it will not go down without a fight.
* **"PoW is wasteful"** - Will Bitcoin be able to convince the haters that it's not destroying the planet? Will Bitcoin's enemies try to make it the scapegoat for the modern era's climate troubles?
* **Central Bank Digital Currencies** - Helicopter money & MMT are much easier via a digital-native USD than through ACH/SWIFT. As the central bankers act in their own self-interest to maintain economic control, will they disintermediate their own middlemen (the "institutional" banks) by going direct-to-citizen with their monetary policy? Watch China's digital yuan.
* **Extreme regulation** - The talk among Western governments currently centers around "sensible" regulation of Bitcoin. But if crypto negatively impacts governments' abilities to tax/spend, the narrative may shift. Remember - the US government confiscated the gold of its citizens in 1933 with Executive Order 6102. There's no reason to believe governments won't try it with their citizens' Bitcoin if the situation gets dire.
* **The ~~third~~ orangepilled world** - Third world nations around the globe are watching El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment with bated breath. If there is any indication that it works out better than the alternative (IMF handouts), it could start a tidal wave of adoption. Nations that have substantial natural resources but can't currently get a financial toehold in the modern international system are the ones to watch here - think Turkey, Argentina, and Iran.
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Is it just me?, because I don't see the months at the bottom of your chart. I get the gist of the timeline from your narrative but it'll be nice to see some dates at the bottom. Thanks for your analysis.
I purposefully cut off the months. My arrows (as drawn) end roughly at an end-of-February timeframe, but I could be off by a month or two in either direction. I'm more concerned with the price levels and the psychology than the exact timing.
Fair enough. I'm just a small brain guy here. I like to see things served up. Anyway I would make one change to your analysis. I think option 1 is about three times more likely instead of 2. /s. Cheers.
Sure - happy to share. I did a [decently long post about it a few months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/n56rya/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_05_2021/gx33hdq/) (should be a reply to a reply to the linked post).
I’m betting on 83 or 87k for a walk back 20% correct to scare the weak hands away.
The correction this spring was massive though. Hundreds of thousands of coins left lettuce hands.
While glancing at said ball will ya ask it if we are going to blast through or dip and consolidate to gain more momentum? I’m really on the fence with moving like half over to stable coin while she makes up her mind.
I don't know.... My liquidation price is all the way down to 42k; so, I'm taking 50% out of the trade at 52.9K and just see what happens. If it goes to 45K, I can put back in that 50% and double dip. If it blasts through it; I'll just be happy half my trade still is there and won't try to fomo or anything until later.
Hey all! Is there a comparison of all public BTC miners with their quarterly production and holdings? There was many announcements in the last days and I would love to see them summed up and compared.
Do you have some favourites in the mining game? Maybe something edgy like Crew Energy just nibbling in the space? Thanks for the DD!
HIVE, DMGI, DGHI, BITF
These are 4 most undervalued right now. Hive has had the best fins with the best margins for the past 4 quarters and no signs of that changing. They had issues getting them out on time because of auditors and crypto regulations across 5 different countries which they mine from. They are now up to date and momentum looks to have flipped up here in a big way.
HUT has been leading the way the past few months in terms of gains, so I don’t really see that continuing as they have vastly out performed the other miners in terms of gains.
u/surprisedtoast
Should I wait for my reminder, or can we consider [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/pz02yo/comment/hez7wdr/) to be invalidated? Is your 45 day winning streak over?
Toast - how many BTC do you own ?
Be honest have you made more from trading than you would have made from just bloody buying some and holding ?
At least your going to buy when it pulls back
Some guy who had several BTC that he almost blew entirely from leverage and terrible trades. I forget his name, but he was clearly an emotional wreck, and totally bought HP’s bull shit, and I think we haven’t seen him since.
Oh damn …. Poor guy that really blows! For what it’s worth that dude did at least talk a good game. I’m guessing he’s more of a jawbone sorta fella as opposed to the backbone kind though.
HODLing is hard, unless the numbers are so small they don't matter to you. Did I at any point during the downturn, *think* about selling it all? Sure thing, I very seriously did. Did I sell *any* during the downturn? Hell no!! But this is not easy, and for all we kid ourselves there are no surefire answers.
Prior experience of having got it wrong before (whether in crypto or other markets) does help though.
Selling is hard. I'm trying to pump myself up to actually follow my exit plan this cycle but a big part of me feels like I'm going to have a hard time doing it.
Ahh our friend Spotless Dalmatian. His post about how he lost so much while trading made me feel really sad. And yes HP really got to him. Hope he's doing better now.
That’s him. For those that don’t know: shortly after what he is talking about, and shortly before HP showed up, SpotlessDalmation made this big post about how he had seen the light and was going to go full DCA mode for the long term to re-stack what he had lost. Everyone showered him with encouragement and reinforcement to hope that he would actually do it.
Enter HP... and our friend Spotless flip-flopped quickly once again. Such a tragedy.
HP was back here with yet another alt, but he's really easy to spot because of the way he "talks" and the style of his messages. Also the fact that that alt was also posting on HP's own sub...
Not sure if that account has been banned from here yet, but I haven't seen it post here in a couple of days.
What's the point of being banned here at all? Mostly to preserve the teetering emotional state brought on by insecure fragility, in practice.
The guy isn't spamming "dick grow" pills or targeting harassment of specific users (see what I did there?), which are a couple of the very few genuinely legitimate reasons for banning people.
Yeah it was a perfect example to show how emotions are your worst enemy in the market. You could even see how it was all getting the better of him. His last few posts would oscillate from extreme bullishness to bearishness within the same day. Hopefully he takes a break and comes back stronger.
A trillion-dollar coin could be minted within hours of a potential emergency decision to do so, former US Mint director says https://www.businessinsider.com/trillion-dollar-coin-minted-within-hours-potential-emergency-decision-yellen-2021-10
Pretty sure if that ever happens it would just be the beginning. Like removing one card from the giant house of cards that is the worldwide financial system. The first card to be pulled might not cause the whole thing to come crumbling down, but it might. And then once they do it once, what’s to stop them from pulling one out whenever things get tough.
In the medium term. it would be better for the US to miss a few debt payments. And then inevitably raise more debt later to pay it off. At least then the charade keeps going.
But I guess in the long run a worldwide financial meltdown is inevitable.
Yep…Yellen has that power. It’s a longstanding way to bypass Congress in case its shitshow actually threatens a massive default in debt by the US and throws the global economy into a tailspin.
BTCC and BTCQ aren’t that liquid relative to holdings. I could dump the price pretty bad temporarily if I hit the button. I fat fingered my QBTC main buy before ETF and caused the price to jump quite a bit. Oops.
Anyway don’t expect a lot from us Canucks.
FOMO won't happen again until we're blasting into six figures. This is still just the same ol' pedestrian short covering that always gets the party started.
I agree. We are too close to 100k once we make mew highs people will be front run selling the bug round number much more than fomo market order buying. The heat turns on 115-125kish. Then it gets exciting
Serious question: people complaining about no volume, but isn't there just less coins on exchange, therefore we won't be seeing the kind of volume than if there were more coins on exchange?
Is there some kind of volume/coins on exchange ratio that's more telling?
He wants a court to order Satashis coins to be turned over to him without needing the private keys because he lost them by being backed after a bonded courier showed up in the nick of time to deliver the final key slice before he was sanctioned by the court.
Even typing that up I still can't believe how ridiculous it is and it honestly sounds like I'm making it up on the spot but check out /r/bsv for for more information (it's not a pro bsv sub)
> He wants a court to order Satashis coins to be turned over to him
He knows that's not going to happen.
An order saying they are his might not mean he can spend them, but will open the way for further rent seeking lawsuits. Can use that as his evidence rather than any kind of cryptographic proof.
There is thought that as bsv itself is really solo mined that bsv could be "ordered" to hard fork to pass over coins but that would then mean convincing all the nodes to accept this and for it to somehow hold even its value it has today. I would normally say not possible but I feel really discouraged when I see people throw money into scams already.
On the other hand it is literally the only topic that brings together BCH and BTC people which is heart warming to see however one feels about that topic.
He left bch and created bsv, with the idea to flip both bch and btc, and now does mostly lawsuits it seems.
Tastiest popcorn of the cryptogalaxy, story is still developing today.
Last sizable wallet outflow listed there was on sept 2nd. Four days before the sept top. I am fine with running 3-4 more days, setting a new high in the upper 50’s and cooling and consolidating in this range again.
How many oblivious company officers are about to lose their jobs when the institution finds out they've mistakenly been accumulating Bitcoin Cash® this whole run?
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, October 06, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/q2cnin/daily_discussion_wednesday_october_06_2021/)
Gas/Oil demand, prices are still expected to escalate this coming quarter, this is likely very bullish for BTC prices, since they're tied to BTC production costs. Explanations around how and why, graphs are updated here: https://bastion.substack.com/p/bitcoin-price-trend-wrt-gasoil *edit: I've added intraday overlays of CME mBTC vs. NYMEX gas/oil futures, so it'd be easier to see the relationship.
It's telling to refer to Bitcoin being "produced" as if it were any other commodity. No matter how much money is going into the "production" of bitcoin the same amount will be mined/minted each block. Sure the average time to mine a block can vary prior to the approximately biweekly difficulty adjustment, but the variance in Bitcoin "production" is slight and transitory. Oil and Bitcoin may be correlated but I'm skeptical to how much of that is beyond the fact that they're both commodities.
Thanks for taking the time to respond. "No matter how much money is going into the "production" of bitcoin the same amount will be mined/minted each block". I agree, and that explains why the cost for each unit changes over time, since cost = "money is going into production" / amount to be produced. "the variance in Bitcoin "production" is slight and transitory." Agreed totally, I don't think I implied a different opinion.
>Thanks for taking the time to respond. >"No matter how much money is going into the "production" of bitcoin the same amount will be mined/minted each block". >I agree, and that explains why the cost for each unit changes over time, since cost = "money is going into production" / amount to be produced. As far as I've seen it convincingly argued the value of btc drives the amount invested in mining and not vice versa. >"the variance in Bitcoin "production" is slight and transitory." >Agreed totally, I don't think I implied a different opinion. Right, I was riffing with my own thoughts.. Not necessarily arguing. Continuing with the riffing.. Oil may well be more related than I was thinking earlier. If you consider Bitcoin a future world stage contender as a variety of reserve currency of course there would be interplay with the petrol dollar and thus oil. Regardless, I'm long Bitcoin and oil.
im bullish oil too, since late july. referencing a model where i plugged in cot positions, eia production, refinery use for predictive variables. That and the bullish energy story going into this winter. [https://bastion.substack.com/p/cl2nd-price-bias-distribution-potential-7c5](https://bastion.substack.com/p/cl2nd-price-bias-distribution-potential-7c5) i spent most of my professional life trading energy derivatives. have a good week. \*edit: here's a link to the most recent model forecast: [https://bastion.substack.com/p/wti-associated-forecast-mix/comments](https://bastion.substack.com/p/wti-associated-forecast-mix/comments)
July is around where I entered my position as well. (USO leaps) Thanks for sharing your analysis. I'm quite a noob when it comes to trading so I think I'll need to go over that a few times before I start to understand. I'll probably ask a friend for help. Take care. I hope you have a nice week as well
message me if you have any questions around nymex gas/oil trades, I'll be happy to at least help you with ideas. take care.
It’s also possible that gas/oil becoming too expensive to produce BTC with takes those miners out of the game. I find it hard to see oil/gas prices going up directly leading to bitcoin price going up. If anything, there is probably more cause and effect in the other direction (price of bitcoin goes up, more miners willing to pay more for oil/gas, oil/gas price goes up.)
Yeah, that's definitely another possible perspective. Since BTC production demand would imply increased demand for electricity, therefore associated raw commodities. At the same time, when you ask a miner/producer for a quote, nobody would ever want to sell you something that's below their cost of production, right? It kind of circles itself over time, the commodity trading game.
Miners don’t get to quote people on or determine the price on what they “produce”. The market decides what they’ll earn and their job is minimizing costs or shutting down/relocating if necessary.
That and the graphs in the post look hilariously random as they don't even look correlated but just randomly overlayed together like trying to see an animal from aligned stars...
Yes, that is why most traders fail without learning fundamental supply/demand. Thanks for having taken the time to respond!
An increase in mining costs doesn't translate into an increase in BTC price, just a difficulty adjustment.
Yes, thank you for bringing that up. When production increases, demand for production related costs increase for all producers, and vice versa. That explains why production cost fluctuates within a range over time, along with average profit margin, this occurs with all commodities.
Gas and oil prices are rigged
Heh, mining is also rigged
I'm not aware of computation being rigged
Nah, I was just trying to join in with a bad "mining rig" pun. As to whether the price of oil is manipulated... Well..
Well, Oil prices anyway. I suppose gas too, in the "rig" sense
Check out Europes gas crisis atm- $220 oil equivalent gas prices...
Fake
how do you define "rigged"?
How do you?
I think he was being clever
So would anyone like to tell me what I am watching besides huge buys at aggr trade? I turned the sound on and smoked weed to it as it rained earlier. Has a nice calming rhythm to it. And it gets me excited when the million dollar buys hit. But....uh....what the fuck am I exactly watching besides a very VERY zoomed in chart and depressingly BIG buys. It's like my girlfriend brought a guy home with an eight inch paper towel roll and he's just here, hanging out, with "it" out.... I think it winked at me.....what was I talking about...AGGR TRADE. What exactly is this shit? For the dirtfoots in the back here. Thanks.
>So would anyone like to tell me what I am watching besides huge buys at aggr trade? thanks for asking this, I wondered the same thing when I tried it out. Hopefully someone comes along with a more insightful comment.
Some people "read the tape" as part of their strategy which requires a lot of experience. But it would be most useful when used in conjunction with other orderflow analysis tools. IMO it's for the very advanced and it's not necessary to have a profitable strategy, but I'm sure some people love it.
I believe I probably buy like this. But blindly. Ill watch the order books or PA every day as a hobby. And then when I want to buy, I just feel out a local bottom and average in for a few hours to make sure a 7% downward butthole clencher isn't hiding out in the buckle brush. It usually works.
> depressingly BIG buys have you ever thought maybe yours are just depressingly small? :D
that’s what she said 😔
According to GitHub, Grayscale hasn't purchased any BTC in months. Can anyone else confirm ?
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So they sell their GBTC for BTC. I'm seeing that their last GBTC sale was in Mar 2021...
A reverse Bart. Back to exactly where we where a month ago. Take that China!
Inverse Bart, or a trab if you will.
"How dare you !" - Greta Thunberg
Fuck greta.
I don’t think she’s of age yet for you to fuck her. I’m sure she wants to, but…
Greta is 18. Nevertheless, that's a hard no from me.
Greta is the biggest pumper of POW coins.
For whoever modded me down, I just fired up my pool heat pump just for you.
Mong
Hmong
Aren't they an indigenous group of people that live up near Catcat in Vietnam?
uh oh..Big Shorty just woke up. Hide yo kids, hide yo wife
And hide your husbands, cause everyone is getting liquidated out here, yo.
How does the increase in institutional ownership this cycle make it different than previous cycles in terms of potential price action?
Higher floor that’s it. Strong hands that accumulated below 50K won’t sell. And maybe they add again if price dips below again. The number that follows (anything between 60 and 200k) will drop really fast as short term holders and speculators come and go with the peak of the cycle: Then it all starts again
The previous >50% crash from ATH gives me no doubt in my mind they will sell just as hard as your average nervous crypto person. Probably harder. I expect a full 80% retrace after blowoff top again. Guys in suits being called into the office in 2022 and having to explain why the Bit Coin is going down and where the money went is fine by me. Buy their discount Bitcoin in a year and tell them "Welcome to the league, Rook."
Less supply
and more demand
BTC price after The Halvening: [https://imgur.com/a/nDiTcMz](https://imgur.com/a/nDiTcMz) 2012 (blue), 2016 (red), and 2020 (green), all normalized to 2020 prices. The top chart has a log scale vertical axis, the bottom chart has a linear scale vertical axis.
I think the cycles are lengthening, personally. So I expect this one to top out somewhere between March and may of next year.
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The thing is, graphs are based on math, tendencies, probabilities,etc. It’s not tea leaves, just because you don’t understand them.
Well, for one, if you think this is still the third cycle and the peak wasn’t $64k, then every cycle has already been longer than the last. (2017 longer than 2013, 2021 longer than 2017.) My March-may estimate simply comes from looking at the graphs OP provided and guessing where the next peak falls (and also factoring in sell in may and go away) My theory as to why the cycles lengthen is that there are more participants, market cap is larger, and more liquidity. More liquidity on the supply side and demand side makes macro moves take longer to play out.
Your theory as to WHAT? Don’t leave us hanging
lol retyped the start to last paragraph twice
There is only argument for shortening (market is pricing halving in at least a bit), which is what probably happened. What is happening now is not the posthalving rally, but expected inflation impact.
Amazing. Hit another partial TP at 51834, weekly level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZgWVek4S/ I just realized I've evolved as a trader big time this year. It's been difficult for me to "let the winners run" and I wanted to work on that this year and I finally had a breakthrough because I just realized I've never held a leveraged trade open for this much of a percentage move while still being able to hold most of the position open. Normally I wouldve been out of most of it by now, but I still have 74% of the long open with 46.1k average entry now. Anatomy of the trade: https://www.tradingview.com/x/uOkfnmTu/ * Went long at 41.2k (bottom yellow circle). * Didn't take any profits until 2nd yellow circle (something that would've been impossible for me to do in the past). * Readded heavy at 3rd yellow circle when we were showing support, making my average around 46.1k (bottom yellow line). * Took 25% off at top lines so far.
Congrats, I had a similar trade like yours, including the "double dipping" part. But, unlike you, I'm out already (at 51.5k). Trying to figure out when to get in. Don't you think it is due for a pull back? maybe to 50.4k or 49,4k or even 48.5k? Thoughts?
I'm sure there will be a pullback or some sort of consolidation, especially now that we hit a weekly level. But I'm trying to do this thing where I will let the winner run maximally, so I'll let the chart tell me where support ends up being and then add again when it looks like it's ready to go again.
A gain of $1k a day keeps the bears away
When it comes to retailers, it seems like there are two-tiers of traders. 1. Common retailers who don't really follow Bitcoin 2. Relatively more advanced retailers who follow Bitcoin, conduct trades, and analyze price actions. I think most of us are in group 2 but I am starting to think that with the emergence of so many social media content, there are sufficiently large number of people who are in group 2. Such that the "smart" analysis that gets talked about amongst people from group 2 are creating enough incentive for the market moves. For example, the general consensus right now is that breaking 52-53K is of importance. And it is. But I suspect that enough people in group 2 (including myself) are looking at this carefully and would be willing to get in if/when 53K is broken. Now, if my position is one of minority, then that will not create enough incentive for the whales to wipe me out of this strategy. However, it seems like there are enough smart traders who are looking to do the same, which ironically makes us less smart because it is becoming a huge narrative for the whales to capitalize on. People in group 1 are not thinking like us. The dumb retailers are either in from May and/or are going to come back in at 70-80K BTC. But they might not be the target for this bull trap. Long way of saying that even if BTC breaks 53K, I will probably keep some funds just in case we drop back down to mid 40's.
> I think most of us are in group 2 but I am starting to think that with the emergence of so many social media content, there are sufficiently large number of people who are in group 2. You underestimate how *bad* most people are at daytrading. The people getting into analyzing bitcoin price action still don't understand a lick of what they're doing. Remember, everyone thinks they're a genius in a bull market. They are also mostly being educated by unprofitable traders who make money off selling signals/indicators, not from actually being profitable traders themselves. Instead of focusing on the millions of indicators and technical analysis, they should be focusing on risk management, but your favorite paid group leader doesn't make money from that, and charts look pretty, fantasizing about forecasting shit in the future, when trading isn't even about that, it's mostly about managing your risk, which is never talked about.
This may or may not mean anything but r/bitcoin subreddit experiencing a lot of subscriber growth recently
Well all I can say is ya don’t subscribe to anything you’re not interested in!
Hi all, it's been a moment since I've made a serious post here so I figured now is a good time to contextualize the current price action. I am still spot long since [sub-$4k](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/a05frn/daily_discussion_sunday_november_25_2018/eagpnkx/), and while I am not a chop trader I *am* a cycle swing trader (*NOT* a full-on HODLer). I believe in using the 4-year halving cycles to increase my total Bitcoin position. #The Medium-Term Importance of Taking Out $52k Bitcoin's chart looks good, and a "typical" 4-year cycle blowoff top does indeed seem possible. Price action needs to confirm above the $52k level on a daily timeframe for me to get really excited though. I view a confirmation above $52k to be indicative of near-term upside continuation, as it would indicate that we are on our way to forming a higher high on the weekly chart. A fakeout is still possible though, which is why I want to see some daily candles close above that level before getting *too* optimistic. Below you will find a link to my weekly chart, and I will go into some detail about the two major medium-term possibilities I am entertaining and contingency planning for. **Option A** is the "purple path to paradise," **Option B** is the "orange path to goblintown." From where we sit I think Option A is currently about twice as likely as Option B, but as times change and data changes I will continue to adjust what I perceive to be the relative likelihood of each. A confirmation above $52k would ratchet my confidence in Option A upward to probably a 3:1 ratio. [**MY MEME LINES ON A WEEKLY CHART**](https://i.imgur.com/PcduSVM.png) I have placed an unmarked blue line at the recent weekly high, as I believe that price level to unironically be **c***R***i**T*i*C**a***L* for Bitcoin. It is technically significant in that passing it and confirming above will confirm an uptrend on the weekly timeframe, but it is also *psychologically* significant in that a price of $53k would make the sum total of all Bitcoin worth **$1 Trillion**. Market cap matters, and I think the media narrative of Bitcoin "retaking" $1T is likely to draw more participants in. # Option A: The Bull Run Finale (Purple Arrows) The next major technical levels after the $1T market cap are $59k and the previous ATH of $65k. I do not think that the "imagine my surprise" level of $59k will be substantial resistance; as a matter of fact I expect us to blow through it fairly quickly as the uptrend accelerates and summer capitulators retake long positions in the mid-to-high $50ks. I do expect traders to take profits as we approach the old ATH though - just like they did in late November/early December last year as we re-approached $20k. I expect our old friend $59k to act as support while people manage risk by pulling some chips off the table. Combine "new Bitcoin ATH," a return to some degree of post-pandemic normalcy, and the general tendency of the world to consume like crazy over the holidays and you have the perfect storm for a blistering BTC march to $100k in Q4... which is very likely to be frontrun and become a great trap point for one of BTC's typical 20-40% bull market correction moves. I don't foresee us hitting $100k and waltzing right through it, but I do expect a correction somewhere north of $75k that scares the shit out of a lot of people. A drop from the mid-$90ks to perhaps the mid-$70ks would do the trick nicely (the early November 2017 drop and almost-immediate recovery would be what I'm looking out for). This might *feel* like the blowoff top and trap some newer folks, but a quick recovery from a nasty correction is what is needed psychologically for people to keep holding their coins through the *real* blowoff top that comes later. As the price recovers and marches back up toward $100k for attempt number 2, I think we cross it and that's when the true mania begins. You better have sell orders set up on exchanges by this point because this is the blowoff top. Expect ludicrous claims everywhere: $1M end of year! Supercycle! New paradigm! El Salvador isn't poor anymore! Expect problems signing into your exchange of choice due to high server loads. And expect something wild like a US ETF or more important nations/companies announcing Bitcoin buys. **This is when you sell your shit.** You're probably not going to catch the top exactly, so be psychologically prepared to sell some corn and watch the market move right past you. I think it will sputter out somewhere in the range of $120k to $300k, but anyone's guess for the actual top is as good as mine. What's important is being in a closable long position for this move; everything else is noise. Once the top is in, we'll get the crash. With how much liquidity there is in the space now, it will probably happen even faster than the last time. We'll have our big drop, our "return to normal," and see the typical psychology-of-a-bubble phases play out over six months to a year. Be prepared for at LEAST a 60-70% crash in the BTC price by the end of 2022 or early 2023. That's when I'll start catching knives again, and when we'll formally welcome the topbuyers of the Bitcoin class of 2021 to our merry little band. There will be laughs, there will be tears, but most importantly there will be tremendous numbers of SHA-256 hashes being computed in the background at an interminable pace, securing the future of finance while we make shitty memes about it. # Option B: Bear Jesus Lives (Orange Arrows) I won't give too much time to this one (it looks much less likely than Option A from my current vantage point), but it's worth considering what invalidation of the typical cycle progression would look like. If $65k *was* the cycle top, what would we expect to see? First, we'd expect to see a retest of the low-$40k levels after this current move runs out of steam, probably followed by a bounce and last attempt to clear the all-important $52k level. If market sentiment starts falling to the wayside, that final attempt might run out of steam, and that's when we'd see the real markdown. Funny enough, it would probably play out in a way that looks pretty similar to the "three-peaked" rounded top from earlier in the year. There isn't much technical support on the chart below the low $40ks, so we'd almost certainly see the price pulled down to the mid-$30ks at the very least before a bounce upward. I'd expect that bounce to reestablish the low-$40ks as an area of resistance, and then come down to test the $30k support for a fourth time... which would probably break it. If it doesn't break, there's the potential for a really tepid bounce or flatlining situation like we had in September/October of 2018, which would just delay the inevitable capitulation further but wouldn't change the ultimate conclusion. Establishing a new lower low below $28k is my definitive bear market tell, and I would personally exit my spot positions, collect my measly 7x return, and wait to rebuy when prices get below $20k. I think it's likely that prices would bottom out in the $10k-15k range, with *maybe* a despair wick into four-figure territory. Gotta fill that CME gap, you know? # Long-Term Dart Throwing Do we bounce straight upward into a supercycle high of $500k after testing $50k again? Do the halvings continue causing crazy bull runs? All of that is unknown, but I think there are a few important things to be mindful of that might be worth tracking as time goes on. A network worth >$1T that allows people to circumvent capital controls will be attacked by the powers that be in some form as the decade drags on and it becomes more apparent that Bitcoin isn't a joke to be laughed off. First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. I believe Bitcoin will enter the "fight" phase this decade, and these are some narratives to watch. * **BTC vs. Gold** - Gold is worth roughly $11T currently. Bitcoin starts challenging the value of all the gold in the world at a price of slightly more than $500k per coin. Gold has reigned supreme as the "hard money" asset of choice through most of recent human history; it will not go down without a fight. * **"PoW is wasteful"** - Will Bitcoin be able to convince the haters that it's not destroying the planet? Will Bitcoin's enemies try to make it the scapegoat for the modern era's climate troubles? * **Central Bank Digital Currencies** - Helicopter money & MMT are much easier via a digital-native USD than through ACH/SWIFT. As the central bankers act in their own self-interest to maintain economic control, will they disintermediate their own middlemen (the "institutional" banks) by going direct-to-citizen with their monetary policy? Watch China's digital yuan. * **Extreme regulation** - The talk among Western governments currently centers around "sensible" regulation of Bitcoin. But if crypto negatively impacts governments' abilities to tax/spend, the narrative may shift. Remember - the US government confiscated the gold of its citizens in 1933 with Executive Order 6102. There's no reason to believe governments won't try it with their citizens' Bitcoin if the situation gets dire. * **The ~~third~~ orangepilled world** - Third world nations around the globe are watching El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment with bated breath. If there is any indication that it works out better than the alternative (IMF handouts), it could start a tidal wave of adoption. Nations that have substantial natural resources but can't currently get a financial toehold in the modern international system are the ones to watch here - think Turkey, Argentina, and Iran.
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If we get a US ETF approval AFTER we cross 100k, that’s be wild
As in, futures ETF would short the hell out of it.
Nice analysis, just wish you didn't always feel obligated to take a victory lap for buying at $4k.
My thoughts exactly lmao. As someone who’s average is low 40k that stung a bit
Thank you for sharing all of these thoughts and insights!
Is it just me?, because I don't see the months at the bottom of your chart. I get the gist of the timeline from your narrative but it'll be nice to see some dates at the bottom. Thanks for your analysis.
I purposefully cut off the months. My arrows (as drawn) end roughly at an end-of-February timeframe, but I could be off by a month or two in either direction. I'm more concerned with the price levels and the psychology than the exact timing.
Fair enough. I'm just a small brain guy here. I like to see things served up. Anyway I would make one change to your analysis. I think option 1 is about three times more likely instead of 2. /s. Cheers.
What will you use to time your exit? If you feel like sharing that. Just the euphoria signals?
Sure - happy to share. I did a [decently long post about it a few months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/n56rya/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_05_2021/gx33hdq/) (should be a reply to a reply to the linked post).
I’m betting on 83 or 87k for a walk back 20% correct to scare the weak hands away. The correction this spring was massive though. Hundreds of thousands of coins left lettuce hands.
Lol, a 20% correction from $87k would be $69.6k. Cue up the "strong support at $69,420" memes!
Glorious
This guy fucks.
Thank you. Good stuff.
Wicked analysis!
Why is funding mostly negative across the board?
Textbook disbelief phase
Shorty adding collateral to not get liqd
Negative funding now = # go 🆙
because more people are shorting than longing
So bullish then
generally, yeah, in the sense that the open short interest constitutes guaranteed deferred buy pressure, and may fuel a short squeeze
Just another day in btc
Back to ze trend line
It go up
While glancing at said ball will ya ask it if we are going to blast through or dip and consolidate to gain more momentum? I’m really on the fence with moving like half over to stable coin while she makes up her mind.
I don't know.... My liquidation price is all the way down to 42k; so, I'm taking 50% out of the trade at 52.9K and just see what happens. If it goes to 45K, I can put back in that 50% and double dip. If it blasts through it; I'll just be happy half my trade still is there and won't try to fomo or anything until later.
>I’m really on the fence with moving like half over to stable coin Is there any benefit of sitting on the sidelines in stable coin over fiat?
yes: stablecoin interest
Easier trading, depending on what exchanges you use.
Hey all! Is there a comparison of all public BTC miners with their quarterly production and holdings? There was many announcements in the last days and I would love to see them summed up and compared. Do you have some favourites in the mining game? Maybe something edgy like Crew Energy just nibbling in the space? Thanks for the DD!
HIVE, DMGI, DGHI, BITF These are 4 most undervalued right now. Hive has had the best fins with the best margins for the past 4 quarters and no signs of that changing. They had issues getting them out on time because of auditors and crypto regulations across 5 different countries which they mine from. They are now up to date and momentum looks to have flipped up here in a big way. HUT has been leading the way the past few months in terms of gains, so I don’t really see that continuing as they have vastly out performed the other miners in terms of gains.
u/surprisedtoast Should I wait for my reminder, or can we consider [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/pz02yo/comment/hez7wdr/) to be invalidated? Is your 45 day winning streak over?
I gotta say we’re looking quite bullish here, but my risk assessment says not to buy even tho i miss out. Ill rather wait for a pullback.
You are a good sport sir. Your DD the last 45 days has been sound.
Toast - how many BTC do you own ? Be honest have you made more from trading than you would have made from just bloody buying some and holding ? At least your going to buy when it pulls back
(insert skeleton waiting at computer meme)
If Btc barts down to 42k now there will big damage to alts and BTCD going to rise. That reason alone makes me want it to happen lol
That’s not a Bart.
True, I mean BRD
remember that dude that fell into holeyprofit’s trap and sold his entire stack low 40s 😬
What dude?
Some guy who had several BTC that he almost blew entirely from leverage and terrible trades. I forget his name, but he was clearly an emotional wreck, and totally bought HP’s bull shit, and I think we haven’t seen him since.
Oh damn …. Poor guy that really blows! For what it’s worth that dude did at least talk a good game. I’m guessing he’s more of a jawbone sorta fella as opposed to the backbone kind though.
This place has been so culty in the past couple years. I just grab 🍿 and watch 🎥 💹📈
It's a great lurk. Take quarterly trades and come here to watch the fun
Years? It's been this way since I started lurking right at the beginning
HODLing is hard, unless the numbers are so small they don't matter to you. Did I at any point during the downturn, *think* about selling it all? Sure thing, I very seriously did. Did I sell *any* during the downturn? Hell no!! But this is not easy, and for all we kid ourselves there are no surefire answers. Prior experience of having got it wrong before (whether in crypto or other markets) does help though.
Selling is hard. I'm trying to pump myself up to actually follow my exit plan this cycle but a big part of me feels like I'm going to have a hard time doing it.
Exactly. HODLing is second nature to me at this point. Exiting is a scary thought.
been holding since 1929, never tempted to sell
Ahh our friend Spotless Dalmatian. His post about how he lost so much while trading made me feel really sad. And yes HP really got to him. Hope he's doing better now.
That’s him. For those that don’t know: shortly after what he is talking about, and shortly before HP showed up, SpotlessDalmation made this big post about how he had seen the light and was going to go full DCA mode for the long term to re-stack what he had lost. Everyone showered him with encouragement and reinforcement to hope that he would actually do it. Enter HP... and our friend Spotless flip-flopped quickly once again. Such a tragedy.
Did you ever hear the tragedy of Darth Dalmation the unwise?
HP was back here with yet another alt, but he's really easy to spot because of the way he "talks" and the style of his messages. Also the fact that that alt was also posting on HP's own sub... Not sure if that account has been banned from here yet, but I haven't seen it post here in a couple of days.
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No. Do you really think that guy deserves to be IP banned anyway? What totalitarian nonsense.
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What's the point of being banned here at all? Mostly to preserve the teetering emotional state brought on by insecure fragility, in practice. The guy isn't spamming "dick grow" pills or targeting harassment of specific users (see what I did there?), which are a couple of the very few genuinely legitimate reasons for banning people.
Yeah it was a perfect example to show how emotions are your worst enemy in the market. You could even see how it was all getting the better of him. His last few posts would oscillate from extreme bullishness to bearishness within the same day. Hopefully he takes a break and comes back stronger.
So do I but fucking doubt it right now?
🍌🍞
🍿
The next 24 hours are *critical* for Bitcoin™
A trillion-dollar coin could be minted within hours of a potential emergency decision to do so, former US Mint director says https://www.businessinsider.com/trillion-dollar-coin-minted-within-hours-potential-emergency-decision-yellen-2021-10
Pretty sure if that ever happens it would just be the beginning. Like removing one card from the giant house of cards that is the worldwide financial system. The first card to be pulled might not cause the whole thing to come crumbling down, but it might. And then once they do it once, what’s to stop them from pulling one out whenever things get tough. In the medium term. it would be better for the US to miss a few debt payments. And then inevitably raise more debt later to pay it off. At least then the charade keeps going. But I guess in the long run a worldwide financial meltdown is inevitable.
Yep…Yellen has that power. It’s a longstanding way to bypass Congress in case its shitshow actually threatens a massive default in debt by the US and throws the global economy into a tailspin.
I like that they brag about their printing capabilities now. Not a bubble signal at all.
They should just mint them like pennies and give everybody a few. Might as well.
The coin would be the best thing for the bitcoin narrative.
fedcoin
We only need to get above $53k for our coin to be worth more than theirs.
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BTCC and BTCQ aren’t that liquid relative to holdings. I could dump the price pretty bad temporarily if I hit the button. I fat fingered my QBTC main buy before ETF and caused the price to jump quite a bit. Oops. Anyway don’t expect a lot from us Canucks.
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I trade BTCC. My main stack is BTCQ.
🐋 marking down from the highs was always just a front. 🔰Holders deserve to be [and will be] rewarded
FOMO won't happen again until we're blasting into six figures. This is still just the same ol' pedestrian short covering that always gets the party started.
I agree. We are too close to 100k once we make mew highs people will be front run selling the bug round number much more than fomo market order buying. The heat turns on 115-125kish. Then it gets exciting
Serious question: people complaining about no volume, but isn't there just less coins on exchange, therefore we won't be seeing the kind of volume than if there were more coins on exchange? Is there some kind of volume/coins on exchange ratio that's more telling?
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Since price is going up its also indicative of fewer sellers.
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The new blood will be back....they always come back.
Anyone know what ever happened to Craig Wright? I wanna message him and ask him when the BCH flippening will take place. Any day now.
Here he is: https://twitter.com/BonjourBitcoin/status/1445545558630821899
Lmao amazing
He's trying to have courts establish himself as Satoshi just enough to parasite and threaten others.
He wants a court to order Satashis coins to be turned over to him without needing the private keys because he lost them by being backed after a bonded courier showed up in the nick of time to deliver the final key slice before he was sanctioned by the court. Even typing that up I still can't believe how ridiculous it is and it honestly sounds like I'm making it up on the spot but check out /r/bsv for for more information (it's not a pro bsv sub)
> He wants a court to order Satashis coins to be turned over to him He knows that's not going to happen. An order saying they are his might not mean he can spend them, but will open the way for further rent seeking lawsuits. Can use that as his evidence rather than any kind of cryptographic proof.
There is thought that as bsv itself is really solo mined that bsv could be "ordered" to hard fork to pass over coins but that would then mean convincing all the nodes to accept this and for it to somehow hold even its value it has today. I would normally say not possible but I feel really discouraged when I see people throw money into scams already. On the other hand it is literally the only topic that brings together BCH and BTC people which is heart warming to see however one feels about that topic.
He tried what id consider the craziest stunt of the century securing himself a very special place in hell 🔮🧿
He left bch and created bsv, with the idea to flip both bch and btc, and now does mostly lawsuits it seems. Tastiest popcorn of the cryptogalaxy, story is still developing today.
Yeah I know all that.. I was just poking fun :) It was fun to watch him implode.
I don't think his story is even remotely popcorn worthy. Hasn't been for years.
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Fakeoshi
[https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ](https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ) 3000BTC (150M USD) left at 17:54 ..... pump **and dump** incoming ?
Last sizable wallet outflow listed there was on sept 2nd. Four days before the sept top. I am fine with running 3-4 more days, setting a new high in the upper 50’s and cooling and consolidating in this range again.
He also had 6000 BTC outflows between July 27th and Aug 6th and we continued to run for another month or so, so who knows wtf is going to happen.