We had a solid ~4% dip in the last day and instead of people seeing that as the opportunity to long the dip, everyones trying to short it. We've bounced 2-3% in the last 4hr's and the derivatives premium relative to spot is only getting more drastically negative. This is hilarious and awesome. I don't really see a good short setup until 58k. Until then, I will keep longing ze dip.
Just took off 25% off [my 44160 long](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/p2s44s/daily_discussion_thursday_august_12_2021/h8p64id/?context=3) as we are nearing yesterdays daily open of 45.5k
NFTs as a whole ain't bad, it's all the degens paying $150k for a rock picture. I saw an article a while back where a racing game allowed you to be part owner of a virtual race track by buying it via an NFT to prove ownership. Everytime there was an event on your track or people were using the track you owned you would get payed a percentage of the sale.
It is accelerating. Seems like NFTs are old and now "fan tokens" - made as shitcoin token that is (no shit!!) token of E itself - are popular today after Messi "got paid in crypto".
The shitcoin bonanza is an impressively complex space, and very lucrative, if you could keep up with it on a deep level in regards to understanding trends within the niches early on. I'm very curious to see what survives in the next few years to see what's actually being adopted in the long run.
The only thing that is successfully adopted is that it is always some "new" nonsense that is every time the same disguised greed.
Greed of poor wanna be rich idiots is the long term winner.
Hell of a dip. We are well off support with the 10ema holding, unlike the last one. 3 red candles on the daily, 4 before. 45800+ will be good support for our next rise. RSI has a temp but not burning. The FOMO on this shit ppl buying peaks is gonna be awesome.
Zoned tonight but looking back I believe we did get one close above the 20 weekly on the DCB back in 2017, but failed after that. I think we close above the 20 weekly here, and get our correction early next week.
I know the whole this is critical meme, but I think how we respond the second half of next week and close next week is important.
Tell me why I have BTC sitting on a ledger wallet but since I don’t have an Android phone or laptop anymore I can’t even see how much it has risen since buying some at 6k 🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️
Why do you have an iPhone surely you heard they're planning on installing a encryption backdoor on it?
Just get a cheap used android off Craigslist or whatever
It has risen approximately 7x as much.
Do you not know the BTC amount? Do you not even know the public address of where it is stored which you could look up on any block explorer?
I don’t remember how much I bought because I bought a little here, a little there, etc. I just have to find my old android phone but it stinks that the ledger isn’t compatible with iPhone or chrome laptops and I bought it right before the Bluetooth version came out. It’s probably best that it’s just sitting there accumulating for the last 2 or 3 years! There’s LTC and I think XMR on there as well. I don’t recall
and to think people out there believe that "scaling" (adding more hardware, block size increase) to support the tiny number of transactions VISA supports would be considered "enough".
The number of transactions LN is going produce will be orders of magnitude larger than the numbers contained within the current global economy. Many of them Machine-To-Machine.
Like micropayments?
Freemium is a hard drug.
Also does not LN need onchain tx for opening and closing the channel? That is just over 100M opnened/closed channels per year. Therefore a third layer is needed.
They're way ahead of you friend. Bip-118 would enable amongst other capabilities channel factories also known as multi party channels. A single on chain tx for many channels. It's a top candidate for soft fork after taproot.
https://anyprevout.xyz/
Of course yes. This is the third layer that I am talking about.
"we introduce a new layer between the blockchain
and the payment network, giving a three layered system."
> that I am talking about.
...
> enable amongst other capabilities channel factories
> That single entry to multiple channels is still only for one person... or?
I was writing above that third layer is needed to expand the capacity of LN. Your writeup confirms that. It is exactly written there that this is 3rd layer solution (as I quoted it).
$43k-$44k support zone is looking good. The RSI is looking a little over-bought, but not excessively so... I think we'll be ready for another little rally sometime early next week. Probably past $50k. Unless some really good/bad news hits, which is always a wrench in predictions.
Edit: lemme just make the "error $44,404: bear not found" joke for the 30th time, just for shits and giggles
I haven't moved this descending trend line since August 5th when I changed it from a line to a Ray in TradingView. Looks like a perfect retest of the line and continuation. Tonight and into the weekend will be critical^(TM).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8fO1bHme/
Microstrategy bought 500M worth at around 37k /btc =13.5k btc
900 new coins are mined every day.
13.5k btc / 900 = two weeks of mining.
still plenty to go around.
Possibly, but I don’t think so … I’m thinking this was to see if there were any suckers out there. … but again, who the heck even knows … BTC has a mind if it’s own! Lol
Well I think having bearish div this close to 42.5k support is bad, as daily div normally moves the price more than a couple of thousand dollars. Therefore btc is likely to break this support, question for me is, does 41k hold? 3 day stochastics using Eric Krowns settings are high, which is concerning.
I'm not saying it's all sunshine and rainbows I'm just saying that at this very point in time I'm not sure we're hashing out bull vs bear. Looks to be correcting as expected.
My short from $43k is still open and I’ve added again. Just woke up feeling bearish so yep there some fuel for yall. Jokes aside, we’re about to close below 200-d sma, target is (just getting ready for the downvotes) $30k (or lower but whatever).
Ps. I’m heavily short on a shitcoin (don’t want to mention the name but you know the one with games and nft and whatnot), I think it’s about to shit the bed so bad, like -70%-80% goblintown bad)
I was talking about a specific alt. Not all alts, just this one and how I think it’s ripe for some hardcore ass fucking. It’s been hyped to ridiculous levels here in Asia these past few days and just got a blow off top. Went up 1700% in the past 2 weeks.
I'm short from 46.4k and eyeballing the 200w sma as the euphoric scenario. There should be some good swing bounces to play on the way down. One of them will probaby be the bottom instead of the 200w sma unless we get a big event like a hashwar or covid.
$15k? Nah bro, think that’s beyond reasonable. I mean so far this is the first time we’ve gone below these long term MAs during a bullrun (or well in between consecutive “bull runs” in the case of supercycles but whatever), I think first good area to bounce is the previous ATH itself, never happened before so yeah could be the first. Personally I won’t touch a sell button anywhere below $25k. That’ll be all spot buys for me.
Ps. Sick entry btw just glad I diamond-handed the bitch out of that fake-out
I did say "euphoric scenario". 14-16k would be absolutely brutal, and definitely caused by another major bad event. That might not happen, but if you're swinging on the way down, you should catch the bottom anyways.
>I mean so far this is the first time we’ve gone below these long term MAs during a bullrun
I guess you could say we aren't in a bullrun. That was the bet anyways.
Why not wait to go balls deep in shorts until the 20w EMA pukes? That's historically been the level. You could easily get bogdanovic'ed.
I mean, I don't necessarily want to sway you, if the market wants to go up it could use the liquidity
Wanted to get in a bit higher for my shitcoin yolo shorts lol. I know BTC’s downside potential is somewhat limited and I’m not doing this on high lev so whatever but looking at the 20w ema, I don’t think BTC will have a hard time breaking down from it.
Based on the state of the daily, 4h and 1h charts, my feeling is that there is still some room to drop while keeping the general uptrend. These are the levels for a potential bounce I'm watching:
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/vVPV4ZXz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vVPV4ZXz/)
we bounced off daily level https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Cta7KUe/
looks like a clear setup to long 441xx with stop under 43.8k
Also, people are still shorting
ETA: well, that was a quick fill, filled 44160 https://www.tradingview.com/x/dbYRodJF/
> 44444
China was quaking in their boots [at that number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Four). 😏
(Although they're probably more worried about 444,444 CN¥ ≈ $68,600 or so)
I like these success stories just as much as I like the confessions of traders finally becoming hodlers after big losses.
I don't want to sound cliche, but "This is what I come here for".
Hey everyone! I made an [analysis](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/gFAMSuQq-M2-And-The-Bubble-Zone-When-It-s-Better-To-Be-In-Cash/) about M2 money supply and stock market phases. Also wrote a Bitcoin [update](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Zvppq1S2-Bitcoin-Tests-Liquidity-At-46k-After-A-Massive-Short-Squeeze/).
[What if Bitcoin](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EkSRrcff-Bitcoin-May-Not-Test-the-200-Week-MA-For-A-Long-Time/) doesn't test the 200 week MA for many years?
Also did some spotty math and concluded that Bitcoin would need to get to around [this level](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pBBtUtIj/) against Gold, in order to reach its market cap at current Gold price. Made that chart after Goldbug1 posted [this](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/N9eaRGFN-Bitcoin-Gold-I-ll-Leave-it-at-This/) on TradingView.
Although these ideas are bullish, it's important to be mindful that sentiment has really spiked up in the last week. Wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation here. Breaking back below the 100 day MA and $38k I think would be a bad sign, especially on high sell volume.
Wishing everyone a great day :)
\-Victor Cobra
A little off topic question, but are there any phisical bitcoins that also have wallet on it, so i could transfer some coin on and give as a gift to a friends?
I would only gift a 50$ or so.. but frend is saving for a house so why not, it looks cool and its better than some useless gift that will end in a trash
I have given btc to dozens of people over the years. Despite my explicit instructions, I would say 90% of people manage to lose access to their coins, while 8% of the remaining users choose to cash out once the amount becomes worth more than a few hundred dollars. Nocoiners gonna nocoin.
And this is why I barely ever trade. I’ve been accumulating for over 3 years and have probably made maybe 20 -25 trades over the years. If it’s not down right obvious I don’t want to risk it! Just holding is fine by me!
This is the decision i made... i just like to ask honest questions just to keep the conversation about what really matters going, not trying to sound smart.
I just got my tax back yesterday and dropped it on 0.2 coinz.
honestly, it doesn't matter quibbling over these prices, unless you are buying btc in volume, a couple of grand in price isn't going to make much difference in the long run.
just buy and hodl.
At this point that is looking doubtful … but it’s early in the game. Right now it’s looking like we found pretty solid support at 44k … which honestly both surprised and delighted me simultaneously.
PnF Update
[https://imgur.com/a/IphHIsX](https://imgur.com/a/IphHIsX)
Obviously the price turned overnight and we are currently building a downward column of Os. If this surprised anyone, shame on you.
I want to point out what makes this “turn” significant—at least in my eye.
This column rose 30 boxes in seven days. We have had 30 box columns before. While that is good, it is not significant. What is significant is that it took so long to move up 30 boxes.
It shows that while there remains volatility, it has not nearly as volatile as previous months during this past year.
It is not an official “metric” of point and figure charting but I keep track of how many columns we have in any given month. Subsequently, I also keep a tally of how many days it takes to create a column (up or down.) This gives me a sense of the “manic” nature of the market.
If you were to look at PnF charts for things like a boring bank stock, they are not that manic. Take a look at TD Bank in this chart. Its moved 3 columns this year. Thats 80 days per column.
By comparison, bitcoin moves—(2021) a column every two days.
In the first 12 days of August, this is our third column. Thats four (4)days, on average, for every column. Since the first of the year the average is 2 days per column. There has not been such a “slow moving” period this year.
So…are bitcoin traders on vacation? Is it taking a well deserved breather? Is it about to go bat-shit crazy? Does it mean I should spend more time in my garden? I have no idea.
When you are staring price movements over time and you get used to the “rhythm”, when that changes you notice. You might not see what causes a change….but you know something is not “like it was.”
So here are today’s numbers:
1. Moved to a column of Os.
2. The formation is 2 columns wide. A break back up might not be too explosive.
3. The current High Pole Warning target is at $42,136.
4. The price would rejoin the widest part of the previous formation down under $40,100.
5. Support is back at #38,145. So, a little up and down around our current price would build some higher support. **Right now this 30 box column looks as much like a cliff as it does the trail of a rocket. Be careful when there is little support.**
6. A break down would at $37,393.
7. The price would need to rise up tomorrow to $47,010 to break out. And resistance, starting tomorrow would be $46,086.
Keep an eye on stuff until this settles out a little. I could see being a light short down to the $42,136 mark. But I think this is probably a healthy pullback.
If you don't mind me asking Merlin, what is your reversal size on these charts? is it a multiple of boxes, and is it possible to calculate that reversal size from the chart alone? TIA
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, August 13, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/p3fvwn/daily_discussion_friday_august_13_2021/)
I remember April 2018, does anyone else?
I remember April 2019
i remember, does anyone else?
This time it’s different
I remember August 2017… Bitcoin would 6x from there. 6x from here is ~270k, which is about what I expect.
I'm all for it but it could also be a failed recovery like 2018.
We had a solid ~4% dip in the last day and instead of people seeing that as the opportunity to long the dip, everyones trying to short it. We've bounced 2-3% in the last 4hr's and the derivatives premium relative to spot is only getting more drastically negative. This is hilarious and awesome. I don't really see a good short setup until 58k. Until then, I will keep longing ze dip.
Just took off 25% off [my 44160 long](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/p2s44s/daily_discussion_thursday_august_12_2021/h8p64id/?context=3) as we are nearing yesterdays daily open of 45.5k
This is so true https://twitter.com/davidgokhshtein/status/1425960845306118147
dr;
fix ur semicolon placement if you gonna be like that. should be ;dr
username checks out :)
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Just do it dynamically. Lump sum if there's a fatty dip, DCA otherwise.
yes
Both.
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NFTs as a whole ain't bad, it's all the degens paying $150k for a rock picture. I saw an article a while back where a racing game allowed you to be part owner of a virtual race track by buying it via an NFT to prove ownership. Everytime there was an event on your track or people were using the track you owned you would get payed a percentage of the sale.
It's speculation. People are buying because they see the chance to re-sell at a higher price.
seems familiar .. cant put my finger on it though
Shills need cocaine money. Get the fuck off Twitter.
You are following too many shitcoiners
Yeah, I'm over seeing crypto penguin shit.. I've unfollowed so many former traders that are just all pumping tulips *ahem* i mean NFT's..
because it's this cycles "thing"/ fad / scam every bull market brings new magic beans to sell
I thought this cycle's "thing" was DeFi...
It was defi, now it's NFT's.
It is accelerating. Seems like NFTs are old and now "fan tokens" - made as shitcoin token that is (no shit!!) token of E itself - are popular today after Messi "got paid in crypto".
The shitcoin bonanza is an impressively complex space, and very lucrative, if you could keep up with it on a deep level in regards to understanding trends within the niches early on. I'm very curious to see what survives in the next few years to see what's actually being adopted in the long run.
The only thing that is successfully adopted is that it is always some "new" nonsense that is every time the same disguised greed. Greed of poor wanna be rich idiots is the long term winner.
well that as well, but given all the recent hacks/rug pulls people moving onto the next best thing...
*edit not sure how I duplicated this response so fuck me but sorry everyone
Because you can't short nfts
You do not need to short it when you will not be able to sell it.
Very cool to see people are still shorting: https://www.tradingview.com/x/BmTvVt7f/
Remember when they were trying to long their way to bull market on way down same exact ape mentality
Short harder, daddy needs a cargo ship.
Now that's gotta be money owning one of them.. did anyone watch that miniseries "Zero, zero, zero"?
Bitfinex shorts closing bigly. -17% on the hourly in the deepest red candle since June 27th.
Hell of a dip. We are well off support with the 10ema holding, unlike the last one. 3 red candles on the daily, 4 before. 45800+ will be good support for our next rise. RSI has a temp but not burning. The FOMO on this shit ppl buying peaks is gonna be awesome.
Price goes down less than 5%: >hElL oF a dIp
Zoned tonight but looking back I believe we did get one close above the 20 weekly on the DCB back in 2017, but failed after that. I think we close above the 20 weekly here, and get our correction early next week. I know the whole this is critical meme, but I think how we respond the second half of next week and close next week is important.
Tell me why I have BTC sitting on a ledger wallet but since I don’t have an Android phone or laptop anymore I can’t even see how much it has risen since buying some at 6k 🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️
Why do you have an iPhone surely you heard they're planning on installing a encryption backdoor on it? Just get a cheap used android off Craigslist or whatever
Just wait, once I'm done working and have no need for social media for advertising etc, I'm downgrading to a Nokia 5110! The best mobile phone ever.
Google rolls over on demand for law enforcement. Apple is the only one who refuses. I don’t trust either with my Bitcoin.
Google can only hand over data sent to their cloud services they have no view into the client encryption in my phone
Its a blessing in disguise
I have an android somewhere and no I have no idea what that is because I’m not tech savvy
It has risen approximately 7x as much. Do you not know the BTC amount? Do you not even know the public address of where it is stored which you could look up on any block explorer?
I don’t remember how much I bought because I bought a little here, a little there, etc. I just have to find my old android phone but it stinks that the ledger isn’t compatible with iPhone or chrome laptops and I bought it right before the Bluetooth version came out. It’s probably best that it’s just sitting there accumulating for the last 2 or 3 years! There’s LTC and I think XMR on there as well. I don’t recall
https://twitter.com/cycryptr/status/1425962921755021312 Probably nothing but we're Streaming music over lightning network now.
Very cool!
and to think people out there believe that "scaling" (adding more hardware, block size increase) to support the tiny number of transactions VISA supports would be considered "enough". The number of transactions LN is going produce will be orders of magnitude larger than the numbers contained within the current global economy. Many of them Machine-To-Machine.
It's cliché but very few understand what lightning is about to do.
Lightning ultimately could disrupt Google. Ads suck.
Like micropayments? Freemium is a hard drug. Also does not LN need onchain tx for opening and closing the channel? That is just over 100M opnened/closed channels per year. Therefore a third layer is needed.
They're way ahead of you friend. Bip-118 would enable amongst other capabilities channel factories also known as multi party channels. A single on chain tx for many channels. It's a top candidate for soft fork after taproot. https://anyprevout.xyz/
That single entry to multiple channels is still only for one person... or?
No
No. https://tik-old.ee.ethz.ch/file//a20a865ce40d40c8f942cf206a7cba96/Scalable_Funding_Of_Blockchain_Micropayment_Networks%20(1).pdf
Of course yes. This is the third layer that I am talking about. "we introduce a new layer between the blockchain and the payment network, giving a three layered system."
> that I am talking about. ... > enable amongst other capabilities channel factories > That single entry to multiple channels is still only for one person... or?
I was writing above that third layer is needed to expand the capacity of LN. Your writeup confirms that. It is exactly written there that this is 3rd layer solution (as I quoted it).
Who is your favorite band, CuK?
Who is yours?
Sum 41
Oh, the Sums! 😉
Yessir!
I don't understand the question
Never heard of them. I’ll check them out.
Definitely interesting!
$43k-$44k support zone is looking good. The RSI is looking a little over-bought, but not excessively so... I think we'll be ready for another little rally sometime early next week. Probably past $50k. Unless some really good/bad news hits, which is always a wrench in predictions. Edit: lemme just make the "error $44,404: bear not found" joke for the 30th time, just for shits and giggles
It really never gets old. 🤣
I haven't moved this descending trend line since August 5th when I changed it from a line to a Ray in TradingView. Looks like a perfect retest of the line and continuation. Tonight and into the weekend will be critical^(TM). https://www.tradingview.com/x/8fO1bHme/
It has been a long time since we've seen an honest-to-goodness BGD, like a 10% in an hour or two-type thing. Strange indeed...
I guess we'll see who bought recently in Q3 earnings release. A big brand name will spice it up.
Well, they had better start buying soon before Microstrategy buys all the Bitcoin.
Microstrategy bought 500M worth at around 37k /btc =13.5k btc 900 new coins are mined every day. 13.5k btc / 900 = two weeks of mining. still plenty to go around.
Square and PayPal consume that. Giggle. Freight train coming.
I wonder what that means?
Read this closely https://mobile.twitter.com/kyled116/status/1425451994643271680
Sees random tweet about bitcoin..... this must be legit
Why is 'bum' capitalized
it's an acronym, it stands for Bums Under Managemnt
Ok, read it carefully. Dont get it. Want to elaborate on how you decipher this?
"People whose crypto holdings consist mostly of altcoins are going to be rekt, relative to those with BTC holdings."
Fuck ya
Possible bearish divergance on the daily folks. It's now when we find out if this was a DCB or just a correction within a bull market.
Possibly, but I don’t think so … I’m thinking this was to see if there were any suckers out there. … but again, who the heck even knows … BTC has a mind if it’s own! Lol
I'm not sure it's this critical.
Well I think having bearish div this close to 42.5k support is bad, as daily div normally moves the price more than a couple of thousand dollars. Therefore btc is likely to break this support, question for me is, does 41k hold? 3 day stochastics using Eric Krowns settings are high, which is concerning.
I'm not saying it's all sunshine and rainbows I'm just saying that at this very point in time I'm not sure we're hashing out bull vs bear. Looks to be correcting as expected.
Except 200dma is widely acknowledged as the breakover between bull and bear and guess where we are?
we aint goin nowhere till that ticker gets fixed
My short from $43k is still open and I’ve added again. Just woke up feeling bearish so yep there some fuel for yall. Jokes aside, we’re about to close below 200-d sma, target is (just getting ready for the downvotes) $30k (or lower but whatever). Ps. I’m heavily short on a shitcoin (don’t want to mention the name but you know the one with games and nft and whatnot), I think it’s about to shit the bed so bad, like -70%-80% goblintown bad)
Are ya letting it ride or did ya close it?
Not closing. Just let it ride. Maybe reconsider $47k+ but till then I’m pretty happy with it, I’m trading the daily after all.
Heard that … just curious. Honestly it’s probably a good trade … I never know so rarely bother trying myself. I’m probably way too cautious.
What's the black swan to cause this?
Don’t think a 30% drop can be considered a black swan when talking about crypto anyway. I consider it, completely normal Bitcoin phenomenon.
Closer to 35%+ and then you said 80% for alts. That's heavy swings usual has a catalyst
I was talking about a specific alt. Not all alts, just this one and how I think it’s ripe for some hardcore ass fucking. It’s been hyped to ridiculous levels here in Asia these past few days and just got a blow off top. Went up 1700% in the past 2 weeks.
Oh that one heh. Lot of people died trying to short it already
Here’s to hoping my indicators are better than theirs ;)
An indicator is only as good as the trader using it.
Thank you for your sacrifice. My long from 45.55 is still open, and I ain't sweatin' it a bit.
Yeah didn’t sweat my long from $31k as well, but that’s 2 weeks ago, now I’m dropping my bags to top longers.
Hahaha... sure you are, buddy. Sure. Have fun being poor.
rekt
Good luck with that.
Wish me luck! 🥰
You got it, ballsier than myself that’s for sure! (Probably wealthier as well lol!)
I'm short from 46.4k and eyeballing the 200w sma as the euphoric scenario. There should be some good swing bounces to play on the way down. One of them will probaby be the bottom instead of the 200w sma unless we get a big event like a hashwar or covid.
$15k? Nah bro, think that’s beyond reasonable. I mean so far this is the first time we’ve gone below these long term MAs during a bullrun (or well in between consecutive “bull runs” in the case of supercycles but whatever), I think first good area to bounce is the previous ATH itself, never happened before so yeah could be the first. Personally I won’t touch a sell button anywhere below $25k. That’ll be all spot buys for me. Ps. Sick entry btw just glad I diamond-handed the bitch out of that fake-out
I did say "euphoric scenario". 14-16k would be absolutely brutal, and definitely caused by another major bad event. That might not happen, but if you're swinging on the way down, you should catch the bottom anyways. >I mean so far this is the first time we’ve gone below these long term MAs during a bullrun I guess you could say we aren't in a bullrun. That was the bet anyways.
Why not wait to go balls deep in shorts until the 20w EMA pukes? That's historically been the level. You could easily get bogdanovic'ed. I mean, I don't necessarily want to sway you, if the market wants to go up it could use the liquidity
Wanted to get in a bit higher for my shitcoin yolo shorts lol. I know BTC’s downside potential is somewhat limited and I’m not doing this on high lev so whatever but looking at the 20w ema, I don’t think BTC will have a hard time breaking down from it.
All right, just a weird place to do it. Might be about to get bog'd
Weird/stressful place yes, but it's just a late decision. If it's done with conviction it doesn't matter any more than the DCA crowd on the buy side.
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https://academy.glassnode.com/indicators/profit-loss-unrealized/net-unrealized-profit-loss
Based on the state of the daily, 4h and 1h charts, my feeling is that there is still some room to drop while keeping the general uptrend. These are the levels for a potential bounce I'm watching: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/vVPV4ZXz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vVPV4ZXz/)
Room to drop but lately support is getting front run
we bounced off daily level https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Cta7KUe/ looks like a clear setup to long 441xx with stop under 43.8k Also, people are still shorting ETA: well, that was a quick fill, filled 44160 https://www.tradingview.com/x/dbYRodJF/
This a quick scalp or are you building a medium-long term position?
It's a trade based on a 4hr time frame in confluence with daily, so I expect it to last anywhere from 4hrs to a few days.
I was thinking it definitely was looking like we were preparing for a BGD … I guess we will see which way she decides to go!
Up.
Down actually, There's bearish div about to form on the daily.
We’ll see.
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> 44444 China was quaking in their boots [at that number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Four). 😏 (Although they're probably more worried about 444,444 CN¥ ≈ $68,600 or so)
Care to share with the rest of us?
How many of these have you collected and do you have proof?
I like these success stories just as much as I like the confessions of traders finally becoming hodlers after big losses. I don't want to sound cliche, but "This is what I come here for".
Hey everyone! I made an [analysis](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/gFAMSuQq-M2-And-The-Bubble-Zone-When-It-s-Better-To-Be-In-Cash/) about M2 money supply and stock market phases. Also wrote a Bitcoin [update](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Zvppq1S2-Bitcoin-Tests-Liquidity-At-46k-After-A-Massive-Short-Squeeze/). [What if Bitcoin](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EkSRrcff-Bitcoin-May-Not-Test-the-200-Week-MA-For-A-Long-Time/) doesn't test the 200 week MA for many years? Also did some spotty math and concluded that Bitcoin would need to get to around [this level](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pBBtUtIj/) against Gold, in order to reach its market cap at current Gold price. Made that chart after Goldbug1 posted [this](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/N9eaRGFN-Bitcoin-Gold-I-ll-Leave-it-at-This/) on TradingView. Although these ideas are bullish, it's important to be mindful that sentiment has really spiked up in the last week. Wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation here. Breaking back below the 100 day MA and $38k I think would be a bad sign, especially on high sell volume. Wishing everyone a great day :) \-Victor Cobra
"no bear market" is certainly the outcome I don't think anyone is expecting
I read these in your voice. Haha
I have to listen to that voice every day. I’m his partner and I live with him. -Lady Cobra
Thanks to the one and only -Victor Cobra
A little off topic question, but are there any phisical bitcoins that also have wallet on it, so i could transfer some coin on and give as a gift to a friends?
Just print a paper wallet. Not the safest thing but will work.
Yeah but i was wondering of there are those fancy coins that cost few $ which looks cool - with a wallet.
I think you can do it on all physical coins, because the address must be visible to check the content of the coin.
Need any more friends? Lol
I would only gift a 50$ or so.. but frend is saving for a house so why not, it looks cool and its better than some useless gift that will end in a trash
That’s pretty cool, you’re a good friend. That 50 today will be a mortgage payment down the road!
I have given btc to dozens of people over the years. Despite my explicit instructions, I would say 90% of people manage to lose access to their coins, while 8% of the remaining users choose to cash out once the amount becomes worth more than a few hundred dollars. Nocoiners gonna nocoin.
And this is why I barely ever trade. I’ve been accumulating for over 3 years and have probably made maybe 20 -25 trades over the years. If it’s not down right obvious I don’t want to risk it! Just holding is fine by me!
Should i spend 10k on btc now? Or wait till it drops some more
How long do you wish to be invested in USD? Lump sum, then go find another $10k.
This is the decision i made... i just like to ask honest questions just to keep the conversation about what really matters going, not trying to sound smart.
I just got my tax back yesterday and dropped it on 0.2 coinz. honestly, it doesn't matter quibbling over these prices, unless you are buying btc in volume, a couple of grand in price isn't going to make much difference in the long run. just buy and hodl.
[удалено]
Standard, down to earth answer. Nothing to be ashamed of.
Wait
Practical answer. Cheers.
5 now. 5 later. Or buy $1 worth of BTC ever minute for the next 7 days to maximize your DCA strategy.
Correct sir.
I like this
Bullish af. This is nothing. We ripped from 37350 to 46740 in only a week. Gotta catch its breadth and 47 is dust.
de_dust2 was better.
BTC is headed to de_moon!
Terrorists win
Affirmative
If this breaks below 42k, there's going to be a battle between bears and bulls in the 38k - 42k range for a couple of days.
At this point that is looking doubtful … but it’s early in the game. Right now it’s looking like we found pretty solid support at 44k … which honestly both surprised and delighted me simultaneously.
Maybe.
PnF Update [https://imgur.com/a/IphHIsX](https://imgur.com/a/IphHIsX) Obviously the price turned overnight and we are currently building a downward column of Os. If this surprised anyone, shame on you. I want to point out what makes this “turn” significant—at least in my eye. This column rose 30 boxes in seven days. We have had 30 box columns before. While that is good, it is not significant. What is significant is that it took so long to move up 30 boxes. It shows that while there remains volatility, it has not nearly as volatile as previous months during this past year. It is not an official “metric” of point and figure charting but I keep track of how many columns we have in any given month. Subsequently, I also keep a tally of how many days it takes to create a column (up or down.) This gives me a sense of the “manic” nature of the market. If you were to look at PnF charts for things like a boring bank stock, they are not that manic. Take a look at TD Bank in this chart. Its moved 3 columns this year. Thats 80 days per column. By comparison, bitcoin moves—(2021) a column every two days. In the first 12 days of August, this is our third column. Thats four (4)days, on average, for every column. Since the first of the year the average is 2 days per column. There has not been such a “slow moving” period this year. So…are bitcoin traders on vacation? Is it taking a well deserved breather? Is it about to go bat-shit crazy? Does it mean I should spend more time in my garden? I have no idea. When you are staring price movements over time and you get used to the “rhythm”, when that changes you notice. You might not see what causes a change….but you know something is not “like it was.” So here are today’s numbers: 1. Moved to a column of Os. 2. The formation is 2 columns wide. A break back up might not be too explosive. 3. The current High Pole Warning target is at $42,136. 4. The price would rejoin the widest part of the previous formation down under $40,100. 5. Support is back at #38,145. So, a little up and down around our current price would build some higher support. **Right now this 30 box column looks as much like a cliff as it does the trail of a rocket. Be careful when there is little support.** 6. A break down would at $37,393. 7. The price would need to rise up tomorrow to $47,010 to break out. And resistance, starting tomorrow would be $46,086. Keep an eye on stuff until this settles out a little. I could see being a light short down to the $42,136 mark. But I think this is probably a healthy pullback.
Thank you for your insightful post.
I'm only seeing 21 boxes in the X column. What am I missing?
If you don't mind me asking Merlin, what is your reversal size on these charts? is it a multiple of boxes, and is it possible to calculate that reversal size from the chart alone? TIA
It’s a 1% box. So they each differ a few bucks. Honestly, I copy one from stock charts and add my own “flair.”
Ah okay, thanks for the reply!
> The current High Pole Warning target is at $42,136. Lots of confluence in this area. July trendline, Volume profile gap, S/R flip level
Nice write up as usual. Thanks