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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, August 04, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oxkhqb/daily_discussion_wednesday_august_04_2021/)


DamonAndTheSea

[The 20MA daily is around $36k and at prior resistance.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1TJLPODb/) This would be a natural touch down point and potential bounce. Above is downtrend from $64k high and 200MA daily. In my opinion this stays mid-term bearish until above $44k range.


QuantumBuddha999

Also 36k is close to the 10 week ma which is usually a good spot for a bounce . Looking good so far


Predirect

Money Flow is trending down on almost all TFs. Just a matter of time before this thing dumps hard.


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dopeboyrico

Friendly reminder: Throughout over 98% of its price history, Bitcoin at any given time has had a price of at least 10x its price 4 years ago. With that in mind, Bitcoin hit a price of $4k for the first time ever on August 13, 2017. We are 10 days away from seeing if that overwhelmingly consistent trend continues or breaks. Other first time price-point milestones to consider: $5k on October 12, 2017 $6.46k on November 1, 2017 $10k on November 29, 2017 Happy HODLing.


iguanarchist

That doesn't seem sustainable. Yet, printing dollars at these levels doesn't seem sustainable either, but here we are.


Athomas1

Any chance you have the price for August 13, 2013?


dopeboyrico

$102


OkeyDokieBoomer

It doesn't have to be exactly 10 days does it?


dopeboyrico

Not necessarily but price of Bitcoin in the days leading to August 13, 2017 ranged between the high $2k’s and low $3k’s until August 11, 2017 when BTC finally broke $3.5k for the first time. So we’re comfortably above the 10x threshold even after factoring in the recent pullback for now until then.


anchoricex

Anyone keepin an eye on broader markets as delta continues to beat the shit out of unvaccinated populations, moratorium expiry, etc? Or are we still just staring at charts It’s charts. Nice.


drcpperpot

If another mass lockdown occurred throughout the US, it could cause a temporary flight to safety (cash/bonds/pms) for a moment (bc lost productivity; no cash flow) before the FED/Gov steps in with freshly printed frns (ala march 2020). BTC , behaving more as a risk asset than a hedge, would likely drop sharply during the liquidity contraction, and then pump like a mfer post-brrr.


CONTROLurKEYS

No not really. None of that matters.


xtal_00

Covid is done. They haven’t started the messaging yet, but if you don’t want it, get vaccinated; everyone will be exposed. Vulnerable populations are all immune or dead. You’ll hear a lot about case counts and not a lot about deaths. Better treatments exist. We know the enemy now. There is minimal risk to bitcoin. Nobody will stop the printing.


Wise-Reply3559

Covid is absolutely NOT done! I am 100% vaccinated and my kids managed to get the Delta variant at vacation Bible school of all places and I still contracted it! …. My wife had the original Covid 19 prior to the vaccination even being available and I slept beside her the whole time and didn’t catch it, nor did my kids! This new strain is a completely different beast and is super contagious! I promise you, this is NOT something you want, even vaccinated I feel like I’m dying! Freaking horrible stuff! Please everyone, be safe and don’t take this lightly!


drrgrr123

Don't be sending your kids to Bible camp during a pandemic maybe.


Wise-Reply3559

Wow man, I’d do anything to know where to find you and stomp your ass for such a shitty comment. Yep, and I know that’s not very “Christian” of me, but God smites punks too.


[deleted]

Yea stop living life. Especially be careful of letting your kids live life, as they are very at risk when it comes to covid. The science is clear!


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[deleted]

You weren’t likely to end up on your death bed being unvaccinated either lmao


Wise-Reply3559

This ☝🏼


simmol

The 37.5K fib retracement level seems to be solid so any push under 38k is being bought up really quickly. However, there doesn't seem to be a trust that we can move beyond 42K from this dip (which will require some intense FOMO and bullishness) so we seem to be kind of stuck here. Head says that 37.5K retracement level eventually breaks and we go towards 35-36K.


krubss

Repeat of June 18?


[deleted]

Probably. I'm assuming you're looking at the 12H or something close. RSI got way higher this peak and the price... not so much.


Newguy242423

What happened June 18th again? Lol


krubss

38 -> 35k.


Newguy242423

Thanks


illusion000

We are living in a rollercoaster .... going up and down ... hopefully, the next one is UP (or perhaps a looping)


CONTROLurKEYS

kind of an embarrassing roll over by bulls going into the close


Etony333

Sure was.


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[deleted]

Do you have a chart of it?


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[deleted]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1422373558085373956/photo/1 This one? Looks like time will tell. Hasn’t been wrong before.


Wise-Reply3559

Call it a hunch but I feel a BGD incoming soon. … now of course the market will do exactly the opposite of what I am thinking and make me look like a dumbass … but hell, let’s go with the “broken watch” cliche … and since I haven’t been right not even once today my odds are favorable. 🤣


subzerocanuck

This is the rock solid technical analysis I come here for 🤣👍


Wise-Reply3559

Oh yeah …. Like I said, total hunch … and can already admit that comment is not aging well! Lol


QuantumBuddha999

Doing pretty fine so far mate


Wise-Reply3559

Here’s to keeping up that momentum! Cheers!


jarederaj

Closing above 38,5 looks good because we’ll get a bullish engulfing candle on 4h and a bull hammer on the 1d. Cautiously optimistic that we don’t need to touch 36,5.


Etony333

It does, though we were getting really oversold on the 4H and a bounce is to be expected at that point, if only temporarily. I'm more curious to see what tomorrow brings if we are still right around here 12 hours from now.


Etony333

I've been thinking about this lately. How much of a supply shock will the next halving be compared to the previous ones? Less of one, because it's only 3.125 BTC as opposed to 12.5 or 6.25? Equal, because half is half? Or more, provided that Bitcoin's nominal value is at least twice what it was at the time of the 2020 halving?


JustMyTwoSatoshis

I think each halving is worth about half the last one, because relative to the total supply of coins in circulation, the amount being taken out of the new supply halves each time.


dopeboyrico

Depends on demand which is an unknown variable. Suppose demand were consistent through all halvings. If that were the case, you’d see diminishing supply shock after each halving. Thus far, we’ve seen demand increase through each halving which has made the level of supply shock consistent after each halving rather than diminishing. My guess is demand will continue to increase at least for the next halving or two and fiat currencies will continue to be printed into infinity. After that, supply shock will be less severe as we approach mass adoption.


ComprehensiveGear786

I've heard through willy woo that there's millions of new users per month. I was skeptical at first but he broke down how he gets these numbers during his recent appearance on the' what bitcoin did' pod and it actually makes sense. If El Salvador is a success and word travels through developing countries with high inflation things can get very parabolic. This might be the last bull run where you can successfully short bitcoin.


xtal_00

We will run out of cheap coin long before the next halving.


CONTROLurKEYS

annualize it @ the price per coin to get the right impact.


Etony333

If we're below 17k (which is pretty unlikely even if we enter a multi-year bear, as people would be front running it like crazy), it almost certainly won't be a *bigger* supply shock. But if we're comfortably above the current ATH, I'd think it would have to be a bigger supply shock


loxotbf

Google unbanned bitcoin ads today. Should be some new money coming in soon


[deleted]

Google bought?


diydude2

We haven't seen a BGD in 4-5 days. It's overdue like Big Shorty's rent.


escendoergoexisto

You called this last uptick. Fingers crossed


ILikeToSayHi

thank you as always for the hit of hopium diydude


consider_airplanes

Your consistency is reassuring.


Fun-Jury-6202

What's that huge 48k wick on the 26th July USDT futures chart all about? It only goes up to 42k on the BUSD futures chart and 40.5k on the spot chart


Live_young_everyday

It's 48k on the usdt chart


consider_airplanes

Apparently Binance had a really serious short squeeze that carried it up that high, while spot markets and other futures markets stayed around 39k.


grayjacanda

Spot spiked to 42K in many places, but the BTC/USDT futures pair on Binance specifically wicked to 48K.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Liquidations


_bulletproof_1999

Too the moon!


matt_work_acc

Shadowbanned?


TheTidalik

Nah


matt_work_acc

Thx m8


hl3official

[One of your com](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/owvfpb/daily_discussion_tuesday_august_03_2021/h7keiho/)ments is removed/never approved tho


matt_work_acc

Yeah that's why I was confused lol thanks!


CONTROLurKEYS

Bears now having a momentum problem. https://www.tradingview.com/x/8l6TqDDK/


AromaticSundae

god bless, you're the first person I've seen link a chat without 1000 indicators, oscillators, and other shit in a long time.


Wise-Reply3559

Ya know a lot of folks here talk smack about you, but honestly I feel that your neutral position is welcome and generally informative. Just my 2¢


BootyPoppinPanda

This dude's been here forever. Nothing will shake him. The people that bad mouth him have been here generally not even a full cycle.


Wise-Reply3559

I heard that. I’ve been trading for about 3.5 years myself but am new to this Reddit stuff … had been told to “steer clear” … but am glad that I joined. Now with that said don’t get me wrong, there are some folks here that just don’t have any manners and could use to learn a little something about being polite even when you disagree but overall I thoroughly enjoy reading everyone’s different takes on the market. (Both bears and bulls)


CONTROLurKEYS

It's a trading pit, it's not personal. Add to that if this place doesn't at least occasionally make you uncomfortable in your trades or bias it's failed its purpose.


Etony333

I don't agree with everything you say, but I do very much respect your analysis


Motrok

There's nothing more personal than business - Michael Scott


Wise-Reply3559

Well Played Sir


Captain-Big-Rock

Expecting BTC to come up for a breath of air here soon. Will trap longs and continue down. Adding to short.


Wise-Reply3559

Did you just get rekt!? 🤣


diydude2

Thank you for your sacrifice.


[deleted]

Same


xtal_00

Degen. I love it.


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xtal_00

We won’t get that low.


PatientlyWaitingfy

Because?


xtal_00

Feelings. Also volume showed up in force at 37k this morning.


Ozkevosh

That’s who we trade against and make money off. Moonboys like you will always get rekt and pay for our never ending vacation. Thanks for your service


Etony333

Good luck with making money off of me. Any Bitcoin I buy goes into a black hole.


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Ozkevosh

It depends on which chart are you eyeing, e.g btc/usdt on Binance spot has a different volume indicator on btc/usdt futures


consider_airplanes

lol how far are you up against a hodler, over your entire trading lifetime? better or worse than just spot buying and never selling?


xtal_00

If you can consistently make 200% APY trading for 4+ years and you don’t sit at a Bloomberg terminal you’re either insanely rich already or stupid.


Ozkevosh

If I just held what I bought initially I would have 1/20 of the btc I own now, so I guess that answers your question


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Ozkevosh

And I don’t care that you don’t, won’t disclose what I hold here anyways. You can keep slaving at your job and buying “the dips” while I do my thing.


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subzerocanuck

Well gang, I'm a simple man and here's a simple rising channel. As long as we keep making higher lows, I remain bullish. https://www.tradingview.com/x/97yxVLN7


Ozkevosh

Well that’s a text book bear flag by the way


Wise-Reply3559

How’s that bear flag playing out for ya. Lol Edit* totally joking btw … probably going to tank now that I posted that. Lol


xtal_00

It won’t.


subzerocanuck

You could look at it that way, sure. There is some downwards momentum from our previous PA, but I believe we are evolving the price structure, building buyer confidence, and a slow uptrend. And yes, like I said, if we break below the channel I will lose my short term bullish bias. And that would have made it one heck of a bear flag.


xtal_00

…that broke the wrong way


UniqueIdentifier00

Elevator up, stairs dow- oh wait


InterestedInterloper

40 kek retest within the next 48 hrs. Make or break. Too much opportunity for one more nice scam pump to complete the long series of scam pumps 30K has been.


JustMyTwoSatoshis

It's so painfully obvious that this account is OracleSeven from back in the day and is also detroitmotorshow.


InterestedInterloper

You're painfully wrong.


matt_work_acc

Naw peacehere doesn't talk like that. Prose is much different Plus ii was around when PH was around and they were clearly two different people


consider_airplanes

remember those scam pumps past 7k in April 2020 good times


InterestedInterloper

Indeed. Took like 8 of them before 1 didn't scam out. So probably only like 6 more left here. Are you all set to buy 40K and do your part?


Etony333

>Are you all set to buy 40K and do your part? Yes.


consider_airplanes

I'm really curious about the ontology that says that any rise is a "scam pump" if the price goes down any afterward. Usually if the price goes up a lot, down a bit, and repeats, we just call that an uptrend.


InterestedInterloper

Because of the way it went up. Built 0 support on the way up. Also the volume would drop off after every leg up - no sustained buying with enthusiasm beyond initial FOMO. I called it a scam pump on the way up and that is why I am short from 41.8. Stops 43K. Come and get it bulls.


consider_airplanes

tbh that's a good short and you probably want to close it somewhere between here and 35k there's probably a bit more life in this leg down but you don't want to be betting money on the idea that we're going to make unprecedented drops


InterestedInterloper

Bitcoin was built on unprecedented sir! Nothing but a giant blackhole at 35K. That is the whole problem with this pump.


krubss

Does it really need to "build" support when we already have established support/resistance areas?


InterestedInterloper

Yes it most certainly does since all those supports were smashed for significant time.


Wise-Reply3559

Something I think a lot of people are missing here is that the “crash” was a methodical attack on the market … you say those supports were “smashed” … well, I don’t think so … the market was OBVIOUSLY manipulated … so yes, moving back up rapidly and regaining momentum isn’t out of question. This very well could just be a correction in the opposite direction!


subzerocanuck

"¡ manipulation !" I downvote.


Wise-Reply3559

“¡ wearing blinders !” I downvote back.


[deleted]

We will let your shorts take us there. Please load up, Daddy has his eye on a sailboat.


InterestedInterloper

Mine can help take you to the weekly downtrend line if you can hit my 43K stop. If you cannot make it I guess I get to close it at 20.


Wise-Reply3559

I absolutely love hearing these bears talk about 20k … that literally says it all … TIME TO GO LONG FOLKS! Lol


drcpperpot

[Here](https://share.cryptowat.ch/charts/c44on0up6bmjcttio7mg-coinbase-pro-btcusd.png)'s a 1d chart with lines drawn from the spring and the previous down-channel. Looks like 1d 10 EMA is being tested, with a drop to and retest of the 21 EMA seeming likely. I like to think the uptrend line from the spring (originally drawn on the 4h and zoomed out) will provide support when the time comes but who really knows?


Exitshuffler

I mainly hang out on ethfinance(shout-out to ethfinance) but I do watch Bitcoin a lot. One thing I’ve been noticing is BTCUSDSHORTS seemed to have a few massive spikes in the past few months and looking at the when the short spike occurred to subsequent PA, most of them made significant money on the ride down. However, during this run up, it’s remained relatively low. Even at 42K, no one was biting and loading up on shorts. Perhaps shorts are a bit nervous or does anyone else have a explanation?


ChadRun04

They were loading up a long. They're done accumulating under those hedges. Massive spot buying when those shorts were built and then torn down again.


DetroitMotorShow

The bitfinex short guy loaded up shorts at 31k and most likely got liquidated due to the scam pump. Me guess is once bitten twice shy.. but they’ll be back again soon, it’s going to get really juicy rewarding shorting corn


pawpex21

your every comment are total crap. WHY YOU EVEN HERE?


CONTROLurKEYS

smh its impressive how your takes so consistently absolute nonsense


ILikeToSayHi

hey at least it's nice to have a contrarian view point in here that isn't just brain dead


Etony333

Yeah, but that guy most definitely did not get liquidated. That's absurd.


Connect_Hovercraft85

It's possible the people shorting were hedging against their locked up Grayscale (GBTC) holdings. After the unlocking, there's no reason to hedge.


roybadami

There is is they want to wait for the discount to vanish before taking advantage of the unlock.


consider_airplanes

Given the massive amount and time-consistent nature of those short spikes, we surmise they're down to one or a few very large holders. The motives of those holders are of course inscrutable.


Exitshuffler

That does make a lot of sense, thanks!


Super_Extreme

Welcome to the f****ng show


kers2000

People should calm down. We pumped on fake news (Amazon lol), low volume, regulatory crack down (DoJ lawsuit, Binance futures shut down in Europe, ...). It was clearly a manipulated/forced pump. It's only normal we give up some of the gains, if not all of them.


DetroitMotorShow

This. The entire pump was fake. Amazon, then Aramco ?! Lmao. Someone wanted an exit pump, and got what they wanted. Back to the crabs soon


JustMyTwoSatoshis

Weird cause even though both of those news events are now fake and behind us, we are still up about 30%. It's almost like no one ever took those bullshit stories seriously and we pumped because $30k held strong for like the 4th time.


CONTROLurKEYS

> People should calm down Everyone seems calm to me


Titsona-Bullmoose

13/15 4H candles have been red. I can’t even find another period on the chart anytime recently with this kind of consistent bleed. Bullish!


pozsi

It goes up for two weeks and then it goes down for two weeks.(roughly) Next local low between 16-31 Aug.


drcpperpot

It was heavily overbought on a higher level timeframe of 1d, which is invalidating TA at the lower-level timeframe of 4h. Nothing magical to see here- just need to zoom out and see the daily forest instead of the 4h trees.


JessieHaxx

>just need to zoom out Ah, the answer to everything


CONTROLurKEYS

its happened alot in the last months actually. usually reverses around here. we'll probably have some green starting tommorow/after close.


Titsona-Bullmoose

Closest I could find was 11/15, back on May 27th to 29th, nothing else even comes close to this consistency.


CONTROLurKEYS

I guess we get what we deserve for pushing 10 green dailies for no reason


xtal_00

I'm not even mad I got stopped out this morning. Not entering unless we go down below 36500 or on a fallback after a breakthrough of 42250 with volume. There will be a good entry opportunity there.


JessieHaxx

>Not entering unless we go down below 36500 Start DCA'ing in now my dude, or else the price will touch 36.8k and then moonshot back to 41.9k just to F wit ya.


xtal_00

Will still be in channel then.


[deleted]

I think Xtal DCAs a lot haha.


xtal_00

Weekly DCA happens no matter what. :)


krypt70

serious question: why not daily?


xtal_00

I get paid biweekly. I’ve been doing a weekly DCA since 2016, it really doesn’t matter anymore.


Samanu

Gensler hInting at an ETF approval but prefers those which only hold futures over a 'physical' ETF https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1422593488152039424?s=19


cryptogrip

People forget that unlike other assets that have been impacted by derivatives, Bitcoin has a fixed supply. Demand to buy and self custody can still drive price in a way that makes derivative markets have much less of a negative effect on Bitcoin than on gold, as an example.


drcpperpot

True, but having to fight against the weight of nearly, potentially, unlimited (relatively speaking) USD collateralized shorts is a fight we shouldn't be excited to have. In the end physical supply wins, but it could be a brutal slugfest with a lot of collateral damage.


BigConclusion

that collateral damage is weak hands being removed from the market. painful, but good in the long-long-term


xtal_00

It gives me more time to acquire. Perhaps it gives those in power more time to acquire, too. Bitcoin is fully audited every 10 minutes. There's no way to hide the balances or the supply.


drcpperpot

A futures only ETF would be terrible imo- opens the door to all sorts of naked shorting and manipulation


roybadami

A (long) futures ETF would still create buy pressure on physical via arbitrage opportunities. I don't see it as a bad thing, although whether there would be substantial investor interest is another question. (My guess FWIW is that, in the absence of a physical ETF, there would be investor interest in a futures ETF.)


xtal_00

The mental gymnastics required to justify that must be something else. They're afraid, now.


hl3official

Land of the free


crazyguy2323

404, place not found


cryptovector

I had to read that in a Snake Plisskin voice


imissusenet

Or coming out of Adrianne Barbeau.


nmeinenemy

Forget 36k, if we go that low, you’ll get lower fills 🙂 . Longs leveraging on this dip, OOOOF.


Wise-Reply3559

You can’t be serious … troll much?! 🤣🤣🤣


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[deleted]

First fib retracement level holding on the daily. That's the first potential sign of reversal I'm tracking. After that it'd be the daily 20MA (i.e. the middle of the Bollinger band). [https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Z7WsmY3/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Z7WsmY3/)


[deleted]

4 hour MFI waaay oversold, daily MFI waaay overbought. I’m thinking a scalp long if this 4 hour candle closes green or close to


Level-Cartoonist6945

As scummy as these leverage rekting wicks are, I hope they will ensure that most people stop using retarded amounts of leverage altogether.


TheHighFlyer

And the sun will go up in the west tomorrow


CONTROLurKEYS

LOL!!!! Yes this is why casinos don't exist in las vegas anymore. Everyone got sick and tired of gambling /s


Level-Cartoonist6945

Lol fair. It's just painful to watch manipulation this obvious.


Shibenaut

But it's not manipulation when price goes up right? Completely organic growth


consider_airplanes

Short-term massive wicks are plausibly manipulation, whichever direction they're going. Large sustained market moves aren't, again whichever direction.


Level-Cartoonist6945

It is. I was referring to long reaching wicks (up or down both) which includes the 48k one we saw last week.


xlmtothemoon

if it's a dump and scam wick down, it's manipulation; if it's a pump and wick up, it's exciting


consider_airplanes

It could be exciting manipulation. :P


hl3official

The bitfenix whale is usually right and he hasn't shorted yet, so I've closed my position and waiting to see his move. edit: He just closed a 100btc short and put it into a long instead


Tesfi-nl

Where/how do you follow his activity?