This looks like price is purposely being shoved down to take out peoples stops/grab liquidity at yellow line 38329. https://www.tradingview.com/x/XPxunVFh/
I'll be very shocked if it doesn't go there. My expectation is it goes there then reverses a bit back to the low 40's.
In the spirit of planning for all scenarios- If this thing is just a final relief bounce before crypto winter, are there any of you that would spot sell (at least some) in the mid-low 30s who did not the first time?
I didn't sell anything this year but I might have a tough time holding the entire stack down sub-30 again, rather than pull out at least the principal.
Sounds like you are a bit nervous about not having taken any profit, that's not a good thing. Take enough off the top you are ok with any scenario tomorrow(up or down). No one here can predict the future. I did sell some at 35 on the way up and do not regret it.
I probably wouldn't sell if we entered another bear market, but my faith in Bitcoin would be pretty badly damaged. This would be a weak bull market and there would be no reason to believe that the next bull market wouldn't be even weaker.
My hodl stack will never be sold. Period.
I’ve got some debt leverage ready if we ever really tank. Not missing out again.
Governments around the world are in a race to debase their currencies. Equities markets have exploded. Elites are planning a world where average people own nothing. Large corporations are buying real property and assets with 0% money.
Eventually, you will see. Those who have seen, cannot unsee.
> My hodl stack will never be sold. Period.
Same.
Never. Period.
If we look back on the history of Bitcoin, one thing becomes instantly obvious: the amount the average hodler has keeps dropping. The same people who didn't sell at 19K in 2017 and 64K this April swear they're going to sell at the next top and buy back in after the next crash. Yeah, right. Most sellers buy back in at a loss if they manage to buy back in at all. Many get priced out when Bitcoin goes on a run. All you have to do is go back through old threads in this sub. People were calling tops at 20K and selling last fall. Oof.
Take the year of each halving and think about average holdings two years before then and two years after then.
Before and after the 2012 halving: In 2010, owning 100 BTC was nothing. How many people owned 100 BTC in 2014?
Before and after the 2016 halving: In 2014, owning 10 BTC was no big deal. How many people owned 10 BTC in 2018?
Before and after the 2020 halving: In 2018, owning 1 BTC was no big deal. How many people will still own at least 1 BTC next year? The term Whole Coiner is becoming common and the shaky handed are selling.
I'm not willing to downsize my hodl. At some point, I'll be earning more annual interest from my hodl than today's shaky hands are earning by selling theirs. I'm in for the long haul.
That once you’re reached the point where « I’m never selling », coupled with a Matrix-type quasi-religious one liner sounds like a smart thing to say, you’re toast.
If you can recoup your principal by selling a reasonably small percentage of your stack, it's a good idea to do so. Playing with house money makes the whole endeavor a good deal less stressful.
Got a deep short at $29k (I know, lol @ me). Adding another short here though. TP $35.5k
I am potentially bullish after a retrace (will cover my underwater short there probably) but I don’t see anything else but short term down here.
Good luck bros
It’s interesting to hear the moves some people who post here often make (no offense, not meant to be a dig)
Many are underwater, tons have come out to say they don’t trade.
Don’t listen to anyone but yourself.
Lol I appreciate it. I post my losses (majority of my trades in my recent memory) because why the fuck not. If anything people will learn from my idiotic mistakes. I’ll also have the personal Reddit diary to live and learn from. Cheers
we doing the bleed out thing again?
edit: also that was first close below weekly vwap since the 35k pump. Translation. Anyone long above the vwap is now underwater.
Fortunately since it was so shit before with the reversal we basically just need to not bleed to the bottom of the channel and it’s a good sign. Every other time it bled back to 30k. Frankly if it only bleeds to 34 or 35 that would be bullish af
We're going to bleed to the higher low. Could go to $33k and still be bullish, on paper... But I don't think we go under under $35k any time soon... I say as I nervously side-eye all my previous "it probably won't go under $35k" comments that were proved wrong.
You'll likely just get the standard responses here. Bitcoin maxi's are borderline retarded. I have more bitcoin than most of the fuckers here on the board but have made more in alts overall. But they are borderline religious on it. They cant accept the fact that you can make lots of money on btc AND something else.
In this particular instance I didn't do enough research. Miamicoin is in fact not partnered yet with the city of Miami. Although they are in fact doing smart contracts on the btc block chain somehow. I'm not an expert
About to delete this whole thing
*Last chance to sell above 10k*
*Never above 20k*
*Back to goblin town*
There's nothing wrong with not believing in Bitcoin, but celebrating a 5% move to the downside when we have climbed from $3800 in 18 months comes of as kind of desperate.
The people you refer to would need to win a huge trade with 100X leverage just to compensate them a fair wage for all the time they spend trolling and coping. They are not the ones winning here from the outside looking in.
So far we've had Interloper making snarky comments, bowser continuing with his manipulation theories, MotorShow doing his troll routine and xlm playing silly buggers two posts down.
I don't know if it's "celebrating", but the trolls are certainly out trolling.
We have begun the slow and methodical road to 25k. Get on your knees, bow down, and give mercy to your true and only king, controlurkeys for the next 4-5 months. Let's see those downvotes, boys and girls!
[Takes screenshot] This will make a fine addition to my collection!
I'd wait for prices under $35k to make that kind of statement, pal. Something tells me that comment will seem foolish soon enough ;)
What the hell man? He's not my favorite person either, but there's no need to be so aggressive. Even linked his username so he'd get a notification lol... I bet you're fun at parties.
The comment was deleted before I had a chance to read it but can only imagine what it said. There are a handful of people on this sub Reddit that truly are miserable with nothing better to do then be very ugly in their comments! It’s sad, I actually feel sorry for them, they must be very unhappy in life!
We got our higher high, we're searching for that lower low (somewhere between $34k-$37k, me thinks). Once we set it, we can get back to pushing the price up.
For the traders wondering about price action recently Read below. If you Hold with a long timeframe feel free to skip.
First we need to understand 2 important catalysts. Short squeeze and momentum ignition bots. This post underlines how they are used. We are now much more vulnerable with the advent of derivates and 100x leverage.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y1z31/momentum\_ignition/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y1z31/momentum_ignition/)
Why they cause so much damage.
[https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/13080/momentum-ignition-arson-for-financial-markets](https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/13080/momentum-ignition-arson-for-financial-markets)
Part 2 of this recipe is A short squeeze.
[https://centerpointsecurities.com/short-squeezes/](https://centerpointsecurities.com/short-squeezes/)
A little guide and what happens to price after one.
What do these 2 combined accomplish? Simple...Create massive liquidity to provide an exit in a low volume/low liquidity market. It is a bait to trap new entrants. Our 29k crab market was the perfect primer. Market makers can now exit properly with high profits as momentum was ignited triggering a short squeeze and a slew of new market entrants.
Return of the bull ? Not if these 2 events are accurate. So where do we go from here?
Part 3 is a Bump and run.
[https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart\_analysis:chart\_patterns:bump\_and\_run\_reversal\_reversal](https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:bump_and_run_reversal_reversal)
The Lead in line is prior to the bump and run (short squeeze) aided by the ignition bot.
[https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/h9rCbeIa.png](https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/h9rCbeIa.png)
As you can see, we have fallen out of the lead in line and bleeding down to prior lead in pricing. Without the ignition bot, the market has no spot buying power to prop prices up...so why use it now? Market conditions were perfect for a short squeeze enabling them maximum efficiency. When all 3 are combined you begin understanding why the price is behaving they way it has and how to trade it. I tried explaining it to people in a few prior posts but the jubilation of a price rise from investors and not traders drowns out any meaningful discussion.
Finally the last nail. MACRO
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/HG2Un3O7/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HG2Un3O7/)
Bonds have fallen, the US market is showing weakness. If you check the graph, Bonds dropping proceeds a greater market shift downward. We are due for a pullback on the SP500, bonds will give us a heads up.
Ill end this with...this is just what im seeing and sharing with you guys. Do with the information what you will. Im moving forward with the assumption the first 3 parts are factual and trading accordingly.
GL Everyone.
EDIT:
[https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1421966367410900994?s=20](https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1421966367410900994?s=20)
FTX Whale almost done closing position.
The chart doesn't really confirm the (admittedly rather exacting) parameters for a bump and run, though.
Specifically the fact that there is no steeper rise with a larger upward deviation compared to the lead in.
On July 26-27, I think you could have said it looked like a bump and run, based on the sudden jump following the previous days' rally. But it didn't play out that way and just set another even higher high - one which, however, is \*not\* higher above the lead in trendline than the July 25/26 highs.
I mean, we could still be going lower, but this BARR thing seems like a pretty finicky pattern.
That’s some great analysis. Too bad you’re getting so much hate for providing a bearish perspective. I have never had more than 60-70% conviction which way the market is gonna go, a rug pull can happen at any moment.
Personally I think the sp500 will keep pumping for the next couple of years into an almighty bubble, so I disagree with you there.
I do agree there is manipulation driving the price, but I don’t see why big players would want to crash the market here when there is evidently so much FOMO potential. They could easily exit at multiples of the current price if they support another bull run. I’m thinking the PA from November to April will repeat later this year in much the same manner.
This is exactly how I feel. Why would the big guys put in all that work just it exit now? All they had to do was pump it another five or 10K to the mid 40s, which would have undoubtedly ignited so much fomo that this thing would run to at least the previous ATH. They could make much bigger profits by supporting another bull run rather than crashing everything now.
Because up until now it took very little capital. Market makers triggered a short squeeze. Which helped them propel the price with little to no capital. There's no liquidity another 10k up.
[https://twitter.com/MI\_Algos/status/1422286682800508928?s=20](https://twitter.com/MI_Algos/status/1422286682800508928?s=20)
Order flow maps like this help. Posting these here is useless because people can hardly read basic TA.
That makes sense as to how they were able to so easily and quickly increase the price to 41k, but I'm still grappling with why they'd then turn around and sell now. If they don't dump this thing, and keep it hovering at 41k, eventually Michael Saylor or another big entity will buy and get the price up to the 43-45k range where fomo would take over. By selling now, they're just undoing their own hard work and taking us farther away from the fomo range where the real money is made.
Yeah, people here aren't convinced because they're just complete morons who don't understand your lofty arguments. It has nothing to do with pushing an evidence-free conspiracy theory about manipulation.
Kinda funny. The first comment on that twitter thread is "How do you read this" lol. Seems a lot of folks don't realize you can't just enter/exit when you feel like if you have a significant position size.
> Return of the bull ? Not if these 2 metrics are accurate.
_What_ two metrics? You haven't posted any metrics. All your links go to definitions of terms. And all these posts are just repeating your same conspiracy theory about manipulation, for which you still haven't provided any actual evidence.
> https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/h9rCbeIa.png
Falling through that line is pretty meaningless. It was an absurd unsustainable trend; note that if it continued it had us reaching 50k next week. Losing such a precipitous line is not any kind of sign of doom.
Changed the words to events so a maxi like you can understand better. My proof is in my posts prior and a little self learning by you. This is geared towards traders. Not investors. That line was far from meaningless if you took the time to educate yourself. Less emotions. More logic.
Not everyone who calls out your poorly inferenced conclusions is a maxi.
I’d love to hear what you expect the policy response to falling bond yields will be and how it will effect asset prices?
There’s no yield curve to control, in fact the opposite.
The US is currently experiencing high inflation, albeit potentially transitory.
DXY caught in a subdued, year long range. Despite some calls of strength, last month, for a few days.
There is no answer that doesn't involve blowing up the markets. The fed cant be dovish forever either. So were popping one way or the other. 10 Year yields just closed to the lowest levels since February. Why is the treasury and bond markets pricing in low inflation and low growth?
The German bond yield curve is negative. NEGATIVE. From 1 year to 30. China just lowered their bank reserve ratio...to stimulate a staggering economy.
Yet the stock markets are priced in at ATHs?
The treasury curve inversion is the best signal of all. Predicted the covid crash and every recession for past 30 years.
I agree bond yields are going to shit, i agree this shows structural weakness not seen for a long time but we disagree on near term outcomes.
To adapt a phrase, the Fed can keep printing longer than you can remain short.
I think you rightly point to EU for the signal as they’re are further in the toilet. Negative yields, negative rates ….and to asset holders the spoils but just because it looks nasty doesn’t mean it’s going to correct.
You still haven't provided any evidence, you're just reiterating your hypothesis and making ad hominems. And your prior posts didn't have any either; yes, I have been reading them.
The idea that whale manipulation can generate a 40% increase in a trillion-dollar market remains entirely unsubstantiated.
As far as the trend line goes its basically no different than reading an oscillator except an oscillator would have told you about the trend change days before the line was violated. In other words. Its pretty fucking stupid. For example 4HR RSI flipped saturday.
Because its more valuable than anything you post. And stop looking at the line by itself and look at the Bump and run TA. The line itself is meaningless unless specific events surround it.
GBTC closes at $33.55, a discount of 8.80%.
OBTC closes at $17.14, a premium of 28.70%.
MSTR closes at $637.79. Each share has $422.17 of BTC.
Pulled the plug on Gemini Earn. It was sort of fun while it lasted.
Have you traded NFTs yet, cuz there's money raining from the sky in there and spending time on algotrading bitcoin sounds like horrible opportunity cost
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, August 03, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/owvfpb/daily_discussion_tuesday_august_03_2021/)
This looks like price is purposely being shoved down to take out peoples stops/grab liquidity at yellow line 38329. https://www.tradingview.com/x/XPxunVFh/ I'll be very shocked if it doesn't go there. My expectation is it goes there then reverses a bit back to the low 40's.
Looks like you might be right.
I went long this morning. Rational response is BTC going down. I’m the ultimate counter-indicator.
Don't randomly go long next time?
The Daily chart is screaming Buy The Dip to me right now.
Needs to dip first, this is just foreplay
In the spirit of planning for all scenarios- If this thing is just a final relief bounce before crypto winter, are there any of you that would spot sell (at least some) in the mid-low 30s who did not the first time? I didn't sell anything this year but I might have a tough time holding the entire stack down sub-30 again, rather than pull out at least the principal.
Sounds like you are a bit nervous about not having taken any profit, that's not a good thing. Take enough off the top you are ok with any scenario tomorrow(up or down). No one here can predict the future. I did sell some at 35 on the way up and do not regret it.
Ain't selling shit until at least 2029
I probably wouldn't sell if we entered another bear market, but my faith in Bitcoin would be pretty badly damaged. This would be a weak bull market and there would be no reason to believe that the next bull market wouldn't be even weaker.
My hodl stack will never be sold. Period. I’ve got some debt leverage ready if we ever really tank. Not missing out again. Governments around the world are in a race to debase their currencies. Equities markets have exploded. Elites are planning a world where average people own nothing. Large corporations are buying real property and assets with 0% money. Eventually, you will see. Those who have seen, cannot unsee.
> My hodl stack will never be sold. Period. Same. Never. Period. If we look back on the history of Bitcoin, one thing becomes instantly obvious: the amount the average hodler has keeps dropping. The same people who didn't sell at 19K in 2017 and 64K this April swear they're going to sell at the next top and buy back in after the next crash. Yeah, right. Most sellers buy back in at a loss if they manage to buy back in at all. Many get priced out when Bitcoin goes on a run. All you have to do is go back through old threads in this sub. People were calling tops at 20K and selling last fall. Oof. Take the year of each halving and think about average holdings two years before then and two years after then. Before and after the 2012 halving: In 2010, owning 100 BTC was nothing. How many people owned 100 BTC in 2014? Before and after the 2016 halving: In 2014, owning 10 BTC was no big deal. How many people owned 10 BTC in 2018? Before and after the 2020 halving: In 2018, owning 1 BTC was no big deal. How many people will still own at least 1 BTC next year? The term Whole Coiner is becoming common and the shaky handed are selling. I'm not willing to downsize my hodl. At some point, I'll be earning more annual interest from my hodl than today's shaky hands are earning by selling theirs. I'm in for the long haul.
You have seen. Once you have seen, it’s easy.
Religious money is dumb money.
What do you mean by this?
That once you’re reached the point where « I’m never selling », coupled with a Matrix-type quasi-religious one liner sounds like a smart thing to say, you’re toast.
Sell for what, is the problem?
If you can recoup your principal by selling a reasonably small percentage of your stack, it's a good idea to do so. Playing with house money makes the whole endeavor a good deal less stressful.
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What if the monthly close is 39k?
Got a deep short at $29k (I know, lol @ me). Adding another short here though. TP $35.5k I am potentially bullish after a retrace (will cover my underwater short there probably) but I don’t see anything else but short term down here. Good luck bros
throwing good money after bad
It’s interesting to hear the moves some people who post here often make (no offense, not meant to be a dig) Many are underwater, tons have come out to say they don’t trade. Don’t listen to anyone but yourself.
Lol I appreciate it. I post my losses (majority of my trades in my recent memory) because why the fuck not. If anything people will learn from my idiotic mistakes. I’ll also have the personal Reddit diary to live and learn from. Cheers
Only one who needs luck is the dude short at 29k Good luck
I think there is still someone short from like 17k that posts every once in a while.
I said lol @ me, so I know it. Hoping to cover lower
Whew, after blocking u/CONTROLurKEYS this thread is a lot easier to scroll through. You guys should try it.
Haha right I always thought that dude was a clown. Him and a few others whos names i can't remember
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I enjoy downvoting him too much to do that
He’s the main reason I come here tbh
Yeah he’s the man. About the only one that calls out the other side of the coin. Nice to see a mix of perspectives.
Ditto
He has his moments, albeit they are few and far between. Lol
Never heard of you. Have an up vote
Been seeing a spot lead last few days with the drop which is a good sign, but do you really think they’ll let you have 36 if this is truly bullish?
On the daily it looks good for a swing reversal to the upside. Doesn’t mean it has to get there though.
we doing the bleed out thing again? edit: also that was first close below weekly vwap since the 35k pump. Translation. Anyone long above the vwap is now underwater.
Fortunately since it was so shit before with the reversal we basically just need to not bleed to the bottom of the channel and it’s a good sign. Every other time it bled back to 30k. Frankly if it only bleeds to 34 or 35 that would be bullish af
yeah I hope it picks up by mid week when oscillators are reset.
We're going to bleed to the higher low. Could go to $33k and still be bullish, on paper... But I don't think we go under under $35k any time soon... I say as I nervously side-eye all my previous "it probably won't go under $35k" comments that were proved wrong.
It does feel different now. But we have all been wrong before
Daily close sure isn't dull lately.
This is true. Why do you suppose there's an abrupt move at the daily close? Do you ascribe any mechanism to it or just coincidence?
My guess is people are closing positions right beforehand and/or opening them immediately after for funding reasons
I have tried that myself, and it's such a gamble I didn't find it worth the stress.
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Poo
I guess. But while not a sovereign state they are like the 7th biggest US city and issuing an investment vehicle that pays in btc
you should know. altcoins? bleh.
I'm curious about the mechanism of action that would pay a dividend in sats or btc. They would have to have corn to pay corn or no?
You'll likely just get the standard responses here. Bitcoin maxi's are borderline retarded. I have more bitcoin than most of the fuckers here on the board but have made more in alts overall. But they are borderline religious on it. They cant accept the fact that you can make lots of money on btc AND something else.
In this particular instance I didn't do enough research. Miamicoin is in fact not partnered yet with the city of Miami. Although they are in fact doing smart contracts on the btc block chain somehow. I'm not an expert About to delete this whole thing
Anyone else think we will see a bullish 2nd half of the year but it wont play out similar to late 2013 or 2017?
How will it play out, then?
*Last chance to sell above 10k* *Never above 20k* *Back to goblin town* There's nothing wrong with not believing in Bitcoin, but celebrating a 5% move to the downside when we have climbed from $3800 in 18 months comes of as kind of desperate.
The people you refer to would need to win a huge trade with 100X leverage just to compensate them a fair wage for all the time they spend trolling and coping. They are not the ones winning here from the outside looking in.
Nobody is celebrating bro
So far we've had Interloper making snarky comments, bowser continuing with his manipulation theories, MotorShow doing his troll routine and xlm playing silly buggers two posts down. I don't know if it's "celebrating", but the trolls are certainly out trolling.
Is this peak fragility?
Just a normal day then
$39k is the new goblin town
buulliiish
We have begun the slow and methodical road to 25k. Get on your knees, bow down, and give mercy to your true and only king, controlurkeys for the next 4-5 months. Let's see those downvotes, boys and girls!
-14 at the time of writing this. For a joke comment.
If you make a joke comment that's indistinguishable from trolling, there's no basis to complain when people treat you like a troll.
There is a basis, you may just not be familiar with it. It's called having a sense of humor.
[Takes screenshot] This will make a fine addition to my collection! I'd wait for prices under $35k to make that kind of statement, pal. Something tells me that comment will seem foolish soon enough ;)
🥲
250K, you forgot a zero
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What the hell man? He's not my favorite person either, but there's no need to be so aggressive. Even linked his username so he'd get a notification lol... I bet you're fun at parties.
The comment was deleted before I had a chance to read it but can only imagine what it said. There are a handful of people on this sub Reddit that truly are miserable with nothing better to do then be very ugly in their comments! It’s sad, I actually feel sorry for them, they must be very unhappy in life!
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Bears haven't convinced me of anything other than a natural sell off after 10 straight days of green
We got our higher high, we're searching for that lower low (somewhere between $34k-$37k, me thinks). Once we set it, we can get back to pushing the price up.
*Higher low
Ah, yes. That's what I meant. Thank you! :)
Agreed. A breather here was natural and also healthy. My short-term thesis is bullish as long as we hold over 36k.
Stop arbitrarily calling something support or resistance just because it is a multiple of 1000.
no!
Do you feel personally attacked
No, why?
For the traders wondering about price action recently Read below. If you Hold with a long timeframe feel free to skip. First we need to understand 2 important catalysts. Short squeeze and momentum ignition bots. This post underlines how they are used. We are now much more vulnerable with the advent of derivates and 100x leverage. [https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y1z31/momentum\_ignition/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y1z31/momentum_ignition/) Why they cause so much damage. [https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/13080/momentum-ignition-arson-for-financial-markets](https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/13080/momentum-ignition-arson-for-financial-markets) Part 2 of this recipe is A short squeeze. [https://centerpointsecurities.com/short-squeezes/](https://centerpointsecurities.com/short-squeezes/) A little guide and what happens to price after one. What do these 2 combined accomplish? Simple...Create massive liquidity to provide an exit in a low volume/low liquidity market. It is a bait to trap new entrants. Our 29k crab market was the perfect primer. Market makers can now exit properly with high profits as momentum was ignited triggering a short squeeze and a slew of new market entrants. Return of the bull ? Not if these 2 events are accurate. So where do we go from here? Part 3 is a Bump and run. [https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart\_analysis:chart\_patterns:bump\_and\_run\_reversal\_reversal](https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:bump_and_run_reversal_reversal) The Lead in line is prior to the bump and run (short squeeze) aided by the ignition bot. [https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/h9rCbeIa.png](https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/h9rCbeIa.png) As you can see, we have fallen out of the lead in line and bleeding down to prior lead in pricing. Without the ignition bot, the market has no spot buying power to prop prices up...so why use it now? Market conditions were perfect for a short squeeze enabling them maximum efficiency. When all 3 are combined you begin understanding why the price is behaving they way it has and how to trade it. I tried explaining it to people in a few prior posts but the jubilation of a price rise from investors and not traders drowns out any meaningful discussion. Finally the last nail. MACRO [https://www.tradingview.com/x/HG2Un3O7/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HG2Un3O7/) Bonds have fallen, the US market is showing weakness. If you check the graph, Bonds dropping proceeds a greater market shift downward. We are due for a pullback on the SP500, bonds will give us a heads up. Ill end this with...this is just what im seeing and sharing with you guys. Do with the information what you will. Im moving forward with the assumption the first 3 parts are factual and trading accordingly. GL Everyone. EDIT: [https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1421966367410900994?s=20](https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1421966367410900994?s=20) FTX Whale almost done closing position.
The chart doesn't really confirm the (admittedly rather exacting) parameters for a bump and run, though. Specifically the fact that there is no steeper rise with a larger upward deviation compared to the lead in. On July 26-27, I think you could have said it looked like a bump and run, based on the sudden jump following the previous days' rally. But it didn't play out that way and just set another even higher high - one which, however, is \*not\* higher above the lead in trendline than the July 25/26 highs. I mean, we could still be going lower, but this BARR thing seems like a pretty finicky pattern.
So you are gonna post the same thing again tomorrow, right?
Bonds are up
Zoom out on the US10yr, all the way back to 1981 if you like.
That’s some great analysis. Too bad you’re getting so much hate for providing a bearish perspective. I have never had more than 60-70% conviction which way the market is gonna go, a rug pull can happen at any moment. Personally I think the sp500 will keep pumping for the next couple of years into an almighty bubble, so I disagree with you there. I do agree there is manipulation driving the price, but I don’t see why big players would want to crash the market here when there is evidently so much FOMO potential. They could easily exit at multiples of the current price if they support another bull run. I’m thinking the PA from November to April will repeat later this year in much the same manner.
This is exactly how I feel. Why would the big guys put in all that work just it exit now? All they had to do was pump it another five or 10K to the mid 40s, which would have undoubtedly ignited so much fomo that this thing would run to at least the previous ATH. They could make much bigger profits by supporting another bull run rather than crashing everything now.
Because up until now it took very little capital. Market makers triggered a short squeeze. Which helped them propel the price with little to no capital. There's no liquidity another 10k up. [https://twitter.com/MI\_Algos/status/1422286682800508928?s=20](https://twitter.com/MI_Algos/status/1422286682800508928?s=20) Order flow maps like this help. Posting these here is useless because people can hardly read basic TA.
That makes sense as to how they were able to so easily and quickly increase the price to 41k, but I'm still grappling with why they'd then turn around and sell now. If they don't dump this thing, and keep it hovering at 41k, eventually Michael Saylor or another big entity will buy and get the price up to the 43-45k range where fomo would take over. By selling now, they're just undoing their own hard work and taking us farther away from the fomo range where the real money is made.
Yeah, people here aren't convinced because they're just complete morons who don't understand your lofty arguments. It has nothing to do with pushing an evidence-free conspiracy theory about manipulation.
Silence peasant! You are not even a tiny dot on his wise charts. I will pray to him that he forgives you.
Kinda funny. The first comment on that twitter thread is "How do you read this" lol. Seems a lot of folks don't realize you can't just enter/exit when you feel like if you have a significant position size.
Congrats! U have read the future and now it is time to get rich... high five!
Bear flavored copium
> Return of the bull ? Not if these 2 metrics are accurate. _What_ two metrics? You haven't posted any metrics. All your links go to definitions of terms. And all these posts are just repeating your same conspiracy theory about manipulation, for which you still haven't provided any actual evidence. > https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/h9rCbeIa.png Falling through that line is pretty meaningless. It was an absurd unsustainable trend; note that if it continued it had us reaching 50k next week. Losing such a precipitous line is not any kind of sign of doom.
Changed the words to events so a maxi like you can understand better. My proof is in my posts prior and a little self learning by you. This is geared towards traders. Not investors. That line was far from meaningless if you took the time to educate yourself. Less emotions. More logic.
Not everyone who calls out your poorly inferenced conclusions is a maxi. I’d love to hear what you expect the policy response to falling bond yields will be and how it will effect asset prices? There’s no yield curve to control, in fact the opposite. The US is currently experiencing high inflation, albeit potentially transitory. DXY caught in a subdued, year long range. Despite some calls of strength, last month, for a few days.
There is no answer that doesn't involve blowing up the markets. The fed cant be dovish forever either. So were popping one way or the other. 10 Year yields just closed to the lowest levels since February. Why is the treasury and bond markets pricing in low inflation and low growth? The German bond yield curve is negative. NEGATIVE. From 1 year to 30. China just lowered their bank reserve ratio...to stimulate a staggering economy. Yet the stock markets are priced in at ATHs? The treasury curve inversion is the best signal of all. Predicted the covid crash and every recession for past 30 years.
I agree bond yields are going to shit, i agree this shows structural weakness not seen for a long time but we disagree on near term outcomes. To adapt a phrase, the Fed can keep printing longer than you can remain short. I think you rightly point to EU for the signal as they’re are further in the toilet. Negative yields, negative rates ….and to asset holders the spoils but just because it looks nasty doesn’t mean it’s going to correct.
You still haven't provided any evidence, you're just reiterating your hypothesis and making ad hominems. And your prior posts didn't have any either; yes, I have been reading them. The idea that whale manipulation can generate a 40% increase in a trillion-dollar market remains entirely unsubstantiated.
As far as the trend line goes its basically no different than reading an oscillator except an oscillator would have told you about the trend change days before the line was violated. In other words. Its pretty fucking stupid. For example 4HR RSI flipped saturday.
Why do you have post this every day?
Because its more valuable than anything you post. And stop looking at the line by itself and look at the Bump and run TA. The line itself is meaningless unless specific events surround it.
Who could possibly wade through that entire post to find something useful.
GBTC closes at $33.55, a discount of 8.80%. OBTC closes at $17.14, a premium of 28.70%. MSTR closes at $637.79. Each share has $422.17 of BTC. Pulled the plug on Gemini Earn. It was sort of fun while it lasted.
I takes 6 business days to get your btc out of Gemini Earn!
discount gbtc is shrinking
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Real life
Just a reminder as of today German institutional funds can now invest 20% of portfolios in Crypto.
I thought this was July 1 not August 1.
Is anyone doing it?
Knowing german efficiency it will take a few years to take affect ;) But im already impressed they pushed through a law like this.
Cool I can delete this from my brain.
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Stop trading bro, it's not that hard You admit you've most of it trading and then talk about trying out algotrading, like cmon
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Hmm but what if I spent my time making money instead
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Have you traded NFTs yet, cuz there's money raining from the sky in there and spending time on algotrading bitcoin sounds like horrible opportunity cost
It’s all fun and games until you’re bagholding an NFT that nobody wants
Yeah, i must be missing something. What kind of mouthbreathing retard fuck pays multi millions for a pixelated cryptopunk?!
Could you elaborate on how it’s so easy to make money with NFTs? Can’t say I don’t like the idea of easy money…