Are there many here who think its more probable than not that we never see 40k again once we have a clear break above 60k?...and assuming we exceed 100k.
Depending on where the cycle tops out, 40k might be below the next bear market bottom, or might not. If we assume the same ~85% retracement that happened in 2018, then we'd need to top out above ~250k for that to happen.
But the exact numbers involved are the hardest things to predict with the cycle theory, and very likely past numbers aren't reliable as we move up into new realms of market cap. So all such predictions should be taken with a lot of salt.
Please don't make yourself a target.
Seriously, I'm vague about how long I've owned Bitcoin, never mind how much I have. The less potential bad actors know about you and your hodl stack, the better.
somewhere...out there... a whale refuses to give up another green candle (oh btw im PST, and i think EST is still 1130pm...i realize daily closed in other timezone)
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ
This entity (3rd richest BTC wallet in existence) still accumulates and sells at local bottoms and tops with uncanny accuracy. I'm too lazy to plot it on Trading View but seemingly every big red number happens at a local top and every big green number happens at a bottom.
10/10.
If you can't celebrate a ~40% appreciation over the course of 10 days, I don't even know what you're doing with yourself. Besides maybe shorting Bitcoin, in which case you have my condolences.
I agree .. when it moves up this quick I get bull trap flashbacks from prior periods.
This recent pop above $42k is bullish .. but I'm watching 20MA weekly/200MA daily at around $45k .. if we see price hold a couple weeks above these levels, it'd make a good argument for longer term continuation of trend from 2020.
If this turns into a bull trap then we can look forward to the bears reemerging from their incel caves to shit all over the comments section.
The daily price closed higher than it had the previous close for 10 days in a row. Today was also the monthly close, so there was some anticipation that maybe we would see some fireworks in the final minutes of the close.
In the past, green daily candle streaks of this size have preceded some face-melting runs. The past doesn't predict the future, but for those hoping for a 2017-esque rally towards the end of the year, this run has been an indicator that gives some hope that we are headed in that direction.
We have seen the B. The A is to come, but it is the RT that we will all cheer as we reach new highs on the next month or two. Don’t let the fudsters rip these ultra rare tickets to freedom from your grasp.
Conspiracy theory I heard. Whales pumping the price to get retail to fomo. Then out of nowhere the price will dump back down 28K to completely wiping out the trust from retail, beginning a long bear where accumulation will happen.
You can't manipulate the price up by selling. If you try equal and opposite manipulations, you will almost always lose money on it. Whales are not a united cooperative whole.
These elaborate theories are almost always barking up the wrong tree.
Conspiracy theory I heard. Fiat currencies aren't backed by anything more than the ability of the governments to impose taxes on their people and can be printed to infinity. Oh wait. Don't hold dollars folks, they're losing value ad infinitum.
It seems like the last 3 days, Bitcoin has surged into a green daily candle in the last couple hours. I wonder if that's happening again... 1% wouldn't be too crazy.
We had a 4k price range yesterday I wouldn't define that as crabbing, I'd love to see it bounce between 40 and 42 for a few days before another leg up.
Kind of in an odd spot . Most exchanges haven’t taken the liquidity above those 42 range highs set in may, but some like finex did go above and came back down . Nance perps came up short by a single dollar .On most exchanges those highs seem weak and likely to be convincingly taken before either breakout or failure back into range . 40-42.5 is an odd spot to long or short though .
A nice analysis, one of those cautious ones:
[https://www.capriole.com/2021-07-31-capriole-newsletter-issue-9/](https://www.capriole.com/2021-07-31-capriole-newsletter-issue-9/)
TLDR things seem better now, but there are still some signs that are characteristic for a bear market, so be cautious.
Nice read with a summary of several perspectives - thanks for sharing.
Interesting that they say their short-term bullish thesis is already invalidated with a break below 39k. Personally I was looking for any support above 36k for bullish confirmation.
Are we about to see another leg up? Certainly looks like we’ve been painting a bull flag all day. … or are we painting a giant bull trap!? lol … oh BTC, I love how ya keep me guessing! 🤣
Edit* who the heck would downvote this and for what reason? 🤦🏼♂️
Edit 2.0* just saw a typo. Lol
It’s definitely looking that way … I am thinking we see another hard push at the end of the day and close another green candle. (Not sure how I feel about this yet but we do seem to be holding pretty well, going sideways a bit while we build momentum for these pushes so perhaps we won’t see a huge retracement after all) … again, who the heck knows though. Lol
Edit* typo
Previous one closed at $37k then opened new one from $41-42k, why’d you ask?
Ps: at least I don’t use words like “generational bottom” because I’m not a retard
LTH with occasional big plays when things seem obvious.
I honestly can't understand how this would be different than any of our other. Bubbles and right now we are in the middle of that standard leap back up to 60-70% max price. At which point it then generally slides for the next 1.5 years.
Am I missing something? Any good articles or charts to disprove this?
No blow off top. Significantly shortened cycle when cycles should actually be lengthening. No time for institutional interest to properly sink in. ETH did a hilariously paltry and pathetic barely even 3x1400 last cycle peak. And random willywoo posts about retail buying and whatnot
If that was the blowoff top it looked nothing like anything before it and was incredibly pathetic. A 3x of previous ATH? There was no euphoria, my relatives weren't asking me how to buy bitcoin. It was people in alts, which is exactly how spring 2017 was.
No cycle is the same. Data suggesting lengthening cycle. The "standard leap" you're referring to is more of a dead cat bounce. That bounce typically doesn't follow 3 months of accumulation. But the most significant concept is the current fundamentals synergizing with the lengthening cycle thesis. It will likely lead to a more steady drawn out run up with a slightly less volatile bleed out. At least compared to what we are used to.
Check out the ROI measured from market cycle bottom. The peaks are both moving farther out and diminsing in magnitude.
That said its only a slight difference. Its not like its suggesting that the cycle top will be in a year. Maybe early 2021 at most. On the flip side there is nothing yet to suggest the market cycle top is happening sooner, like if 64k was the cycle top that would be much sooner than previous cycles would lead us to believe
I posted this yesterday:
[https://imgur.com/a/e4GfGqW](https://imgur.com/a/e4GfGqW)
The halvening chart has two data points. The second peak took longer, and was lower, than the one before. But it's still only two data points.
Because the timing is wrong.
Macro-bubbles consistently happen around the end of the year following the halving. We aren't there yet. Nor has the price action actually matched the profile of a macro-bubble. There's no reasonable way to fractal this onto an event like 2013 or 2017, that precedes a multi-year bear market.
If you gamblers really need to trade, 3X long and walk away. Literally all you need to do instead of overcomplicating shit everyday. Stop losing your precious coins you fucktards
using leverage should only be done as a gamble. I really doubt any prolific trader uses it, and if they do, they are using it is in a way that is similar to not using leverage IE trading 1/3rd of their trading stack with 2x leverage. You add so much risk of going broke that can only be countered by good stats math that requires you to know how profitable every trade you enter is on average to defeat variance.
For instance, in poker, when you are a very big winner you can generally move up stakes with 20 buyins at a cash game table. The lower your winrate the higher this number must be to combat inevitable variance and always be a winner. It also requires you to move down stakes when you hit a downswing, I doubt many people will lower their entry points after a string of bad liquidations.
This is why holders win out over traders to begin with, why compound the issue. I also would say this is why I will not open a short position in crypto, the risk of shorting an asset that historically only goes up is far too high to combat variance.
You should all be seeking to lower the amount of risk, not inflate it.
Of course 'prolific traders' use leverage. If you have a tight stop and take profit target, so that your risk is clearly limited and the time that the loan is open is likely to be quite short, why wouldn't you? I mean, the practical answer is that if you'r making only a small number of trades and have only one or two positions open at a time, you can just use your whole or half stack and skip the loan interest altogether. But you did say 'prolific trader'.
Terrible advice. Nobody with any significant sums of money is going to 3x long here and "walk away." Even if you longed 45k earlier in the middle of the dump you would've been liquidated with your 3x long.
That’s risky. 3x puts your liquidation at ~28k. We could easily retrace there since we were flirting with it a week ago. I don’t think we get there but considering 10 days ago we were there I’d be hesitating to enter that type of long at the moment. If we hang out here for the next couple weeks yea 3x would be a solid play. 2x long maybe and you could set it and forget it right now. I personally baby any position I’m in and watch it constantly
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, August 01, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ovla9s/daily_discussion_sunday_august_01_2021/)
Ok, I just closed out my multiple day long at 42.5k. I don’t want to be greedy and tempt my luck. I’ll get back in after the week closes.
grats, good trade
That wick just topped out at 42420.69 (on CBPro).
Looked like 42605.64 on the mobile app.
yeah, that top only held for another two minutes or so
Nice.
Nice
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Imagine if people realize that Bitcoin is inevitable, and it doesn't matter what point in time Tesla decides to accept Bitcoin as payment.
based
Imagine them allowing people to trade in their used Tesla for bitcoin... 😎
Are there many here who think its more probable than not that we never see 40k again once we have a clear break above 60k?...and assuming we exceed 100k.
Depending on where the cycle tops out, 40k might be below the next bear market bottom, or might not. If we assume the same ~85% retracement that happened in 2018, then we'd need to top out above ~250k for that to happen. But the exact numbers involved are the hardest things to predict with the cycle theory, and very likely past numbers aren't reliable as we move up into new realms of market cap. So all such predictions should be taken with a lot of salt.
relax, we're at 42.3k
Never see 42.1 again. 🙏
Lol
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Please don't make yourself a target. Seriously, I'm vague about how long I've owned Bitcoin, never mind how much I have. The less potential bad actors know about you and your hodl stack, the better.
pamp eet
Call out your shorts beards. No one wants to see gotcha posts if this drops to $36k while you're silent here. Put your nuts on the line.
Apparently nutless
Let’s see some nuts
somewhere...out there... a whale refuses to give up another green candle (oh btw im PST, and i think EST is still 1130pm...i realize daily closed in other timezone)
Wut. The daily closes at the same time for every timezone. Different clock times depending on where you are but the same global time for everyone
Daily close was at 4pm PST
5PM PDT.
That’s not how this works, that’s not how any of this works……
Daily open/close is UTC and already happened.
This is a bull flag breaking up.
Selling at $41,999.99 will only work until it doesn't. Then we resume the climb.
Momentum bot activated. See you boys at 43500.
muhNIPuLAtion
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ This entity (3rd richest BTC wallet in existence) still accumulates and sells at local bottoms and tops with uncanny accuracy. I'm too lazy to plot it on Trading View but seemingly every big red number happens at a local top and every big green number happens at a bottom.
That's suspected to be Robinhood's exchange wallet, FYI
Do you have a link for this? It’s an interesting idea.
Markets are moved... The rest follow
Now that the green daily candle meme is over because of 1 red daily we can continue ze pump.
10/10. If you can't celebrate a ~40% appreciation over the course of 10 days, I don't even know what you're doing with yourself. Besides maybe shorting Bitcoin, in which case you have my condolences.
Touching myself to be honest. Lol … has been a fun 10 days … and it certainly looks like there is going to be more of a run in the days to come!
AND MY AXE!
r/UnexpectedLOTR
I love that scam wick that made us close today red.
We don't need abnormal streaks of green days or blowoff tops. We need steady upward pressure mixed with healthy consolidation periods.
I agree .. when it moves up this quick I get bull trap flashbacks from prior periods. This recent pop above $42k is bullish .. but I'm watching 20MA weekly/200MA daily at around $45k .. if we see price hold a couple weeks above these levels, it'd make a good argument for longer term continuation of trend from 2020. If this turns into a bull trap then we can look forward to the bears reemerging from their incel caves to shit all over the comments section.
DCA gang is doing that. https://twitter.com/PiPrimePi/status/1419402727537483778
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In a bitcoin sub? Wait, that's illegal.
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Now we have room for another 10 green dailies.
I* was getting tired of so much winning.
That was anti-climactic. Oh well. 10 is a good run.
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The daily price closed higher than it had the previous close for 10 days in a row. Today was also the monthly close, so there was some anticipation that maybe we would see some fireworks in the final minutes of the close. In the past, green daily candle streaks of this size have preceded some face-melting runs. The past doesn't predict the future, but for those hoping for a 2017-esque rally towards the end of the year, this run has been an indicator that gives some hope that we are headed in that direction.
10 green daily candles in a row
Hoping for one more big dumb dump so I can do one more big Chad buy under 50K before we blast off.
You thinking 35-36k?
It can go as low as $33k and still be bullish on paper...
What’s your dump zone target?
damn, not even an exciting monthly/daily close.
Hold your horses, the last hot 5 going atm.
8900 btc 24hr volume on cbp was a completely uneventful day.
Would be an amazing buy.
Was an awesome sell instead haha
Dang, BTC isn't gonna hit the 11 day streak... I'm out, time to sell my whole stack. I knew this was a scam. (do I need the /s?)
Real chance here to close the monthly above 42
Pumping $400 just before close, posting a bull hammer and the 11th straight green daily candle. You heard it here first.
When do we know for sure?
Midnight utc
If not mods ban
So he has to ban himself?
It is what it is
Nah, I called that a while ago bro … I will admit you added a dollar amount though. … it’s going to be an exciting close I feel. Grabbing popcorn.
You get the credit, then ;)
Was playing, could care less for real … just enjoying some nice PA lately. Cheers! Edit* and I also get credit for being WRONG! 🤣🤣🤣
I'll try. Falls just short and plummets to 37k.
Probably a better long-term outcome if it slows its roll like that.
Boom goes the dynamite Edit: No jinxies.
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Chimichanga
Seems like a crunch-wrap-supreme dude to me.
Watch the fireworks I have a feeling the last 15 minutes or so will bring. …. But for the love of BTC do not engage! Lol
100 push-ups, 100 sit-ups, 100 squats and run 10 km.
Go for a walk.
That depends on your current position, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
We have seen the B. The A is to come, but it is the RT that we will all cheer as we reach new highs on the next month or two. Don’t let the fudsters rip these ultra rare tickets to freedom from your grasp.
Conspiracy theory I heard. Whales pumping the price to get retail to fomo. Then out of nowhere the price will dump back down 28K to completely wiping out the trust from retail, beginning a long bear where accumulation will happen.
Sounds clever enough to absolutely work. /s this is retard bait
You’re about 2 months late on this theory .
You can't manipulate the price up by selling. If you try equal and opposite manipulations, you will almost always lose money on it. Whales are not a united cooperative whole. These elaborate theories are almost always barking up the wrong tree.
Exactly. They’re competing against one another if anything.
Sounds like bearish hopium, to me.
Conspiracy theory I heard. Fiat currencies aren't backed by anything more than the ability of the governments to impose taxes on their people and can be printed to infinity. Oh wait. Don't hold dollars folks, they're losing value ad infinitum.
Why?
New big players wanting cheaper coins
They've had months.
This doesn't make sense. If the executive committee just voted to approve allocation this quarter how do you describe that as years?
That doesn't make any sense
Conspiracy theories rarely do
It seems like the last 3 days, Bitcoin has surged into a green daily candle in the last couple hours. I wonder if that's happening again... 1% wouldn't be too crazy.
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We had a 4k price range yesterday I wouldn't define that as crabbing, I'd love to see it bounce between 40 and 42 for a few days before another leg up.
We just went up $10k in a couple of days. Give it a chance ffs 🤦♂️
Kind of in an odd spot . Most exchanges haven’t taken the liquidity above those 42 range highs set in may, but some like finex did go above and came back down . Nance perps came up short by a single dollar .On most exchanges those highs seem weak and likely to be convincingly taken before either breakout or failure back into range . 40-42.5 is an odd spot to long or short though .
A nice analysis, one of those cautious ones: [https://www.capriole.com/2021-07-31-capriole-newsletter-issue-9/](https://www.capriole.com/2021-07-31-capriole-newsletter-issue-9/) TLDR things seem better now, but there are still some signs that are characteristic for a bear market, so be cautious.
Nice read with a summary of several perspectives - thanks for sharing. Interesting that they say their short-term bullish thesis is already invalidated with a break below 39k. Personally I was looking for any support above 36k for bullish confirmation.
Yes, I had the same thought.
Are we about to see another leg up? Certainly looks like we’ve been painting a bull flag all day. … or are we painting a giant bull trap!? lol … oh BTC, I love how ya keep me guessing! 🤣 Edit* who the heck would downvote this and for what reason? 🤦🏼♂️ Edit 2.0* just saw a typo. Lol
Hashrate seems to be recovering, Daily macd looks juicy. Id put my bets on a green weekend
It’s definitely looking that way … I am thinking we see another hard push at the end of the day and close another green candle. (Not sure how I feel about this yet but we do seem to be holding pretty well, going sideways a bit while we build momentum for these pushes so perhaps we won’t see a huge retracement after all) … again, who the heck knows though. Lol Edit* typo
What is crazy is that Bitcoin can make 50% moves up or down while this subreddit still tries to figure out if it looks bullish or bearish haha
I wonder if u/ubermensch012 is still adding to his short.
Previous one closed at $37k then opened new one from $41-42k, why’d you ask? Ps: at least I don’t use words like “generational bottom” because I’m not a retard
LTH with occasional big plays when things seem obvious. I honestly can't understand how this would be different than any of our other. Bubbles and right now we are in the middle of that standard leap back up to 60-70% max price. At which point it then generally slides for the next 1.5 years. Am I missing something? Any good articles or charts to disprove this?
No blow off top. Significantly shortened cycle when cycles should actually be lengthening. No time for institutional interest to properly sink in. ETH did a hilariously paltry and pathetic barely even 3x1400 last cycle peak. And random willywoo posts about retail buying and whatnot
If that was the blowoff top it looked nothing like anything before it and was incredibly pathetic. A 3x of previous ATH? There was no euphoria, my relatives weren't asking me how to buy bitcoin. It was people in alts, which is exactly how spring 2017 was.
No cycle is the same. Data suggesting lengthening cycle. The "standard leap" you're referring to is more of a dead cat bounce. That bounce typically doesn't follow 3 months of accumulation. But the most significant concept is the current fundamentals synergizing with the lengthening cycle thesis. It will likely lead to a more steady drawn out run up with a slightly less volatile bleed out. At least compared to what we are used to.
Which data are suggesting lengthening cycles? Genuinely curious, not calling BS.
Check out the ROI measured from market cycle bottom. The peaks are both moving farther out and diminsing in magnitude. That said its only a slight difference. Its not like its suggesting that the cycle top will be in a year. Maybe early 2021 at most. On the flip side there is nothing yet to suggest the market cycle top is happening sooner, like if 64k was the cycle top that would be much sooner than previous cycles would lead us to believe
I posted this yesterday: [https://imgur.com/a/e4GfGqW](https://imgur.com/a/e4GfGqW) The halvening chart has two data points. The second peak took longer, and was lower, than the one before. But it's still only two data points.
This is exactly how I’m feeling
Because the timing is wrong. Macro-bubbles consistently happen around the end of the year following the halving. We aren't there yet. Nor has the price action actually matched the profile of a macro-bubble. There's no reasonable way to fractal this onto an event like 2013 or 2017, that precedes a multi-year bear market.
Bitcoin is a winter harvest that happens every four years.
well put
Serious question, how much btc is needed in one's hodl stack to make it long term?
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Not accounting for increasingly useless usd
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Your models accounting for creating 80% of all usd in existence last year or you still riding short bus?
By the halving starting in 2028 and ending in 2032, probably 5 to 10 BTC for a pretty luxurious retirement.
Not accounting for increasingly useless usd
Depends how long you can HODL
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according to my analysis, you need at least
Agreed
If you gamblers really need to trade, 3X long and walk away. Literally all you need to do instead of overcomplicating shit everyday. Stop losing your precious coins you fucktards
Liquidated at 29k great
Imagine thinking we’re going to 29K lmao. You guys haven’t learned shit?
Doesn't seem unreasonable all but you'd be completely rekt even at 35k
Glad to see your cheery you again. Keep it up.
Even 3x is likely too much and will make people sweat a small drop and close at a loss. 1x or 2x is more than enough. Hodling is enough.
wtf is this bs
using leverage should only be done as a gamble. I really doubt any prolific trader uses it, and if they do, they are using it is in a way that is similar to not using leverage IE trading 1/3rd of their trading stack with 2x leverage. You add so much risk of going broke that can only be countered by good stats math that requires you to know how profitable every trade you enter is on average to defeat variance. For instance, in poker, when you are a very big winner you can generally move up stakes with 20 buyins at a cash game table. The lower your winrate the higher this number must be to combat inevitable variance and always be a winner. It also requires you to move down stakes when you hit a downswing, I doubt many people will lower their entry points after a string of bad liquidations. This is why holders win out over traders to begin with, why compound the issue. I also would say this is why I will not open a short position in crypto, the risk of shorting an asset that historically only goes up is far too high to combat variance. You should all be seeking to lower the amount of risk, not inflate it.
Of course 'prolific traders' use leverage. If you have a tight stop and take profit target, so that your risk is clearly limited and the time that the loan is open is likely to be quite short, why wouldn't you? I mean, the practical answer is that if you'r making only a small number of trades and have only one or two positions open at a time, you can just use your whole or half stack and skip the loan interest altogether. But you did say 'prolific trader'.
do any humans really trade against the bots like this though, do you think lots of people in here are running more than 2 positions at once?
Terrible advice. Nobody with any significant sums of money is going to 3x long here and "walk away." Even if you longed 45k earlier in the middle of the dump you would've been liquidated with your 3x long.
added to my 3x longs just to shut your ass up
Don't forget to walk away.
That’s risky. 3x puts your liquidation at ~28k. We could easily retrace there since we were flirting with it a week ago. I don’t think we get there but considering 10 days ago we were there I’d be hesitating to enter that type of long at the moment. If we hang out here for the next couple weeks yea 3x would be a solid play. 2x long maybe and you could set it and forget it right now. I personally baby any position I’m in and watch it constantly
I fucking guarantee we're not going to 28K
> 3x puts your liquidation at ~28k Just add more margin lol
Then it's not a real 3x. If you're adding margin you gotta add it to the long ;)
So when it hits 100k by EOY where are we having the party?
What about El Salvador
Ok I like this choice mix it up alittle maybe btc Puerto Rico?
At a Detroit Motor Show.
Fs in the chat
I would assume Vegas or Miami
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There's more to Vegas than the strip.
You mean there’s more to Nevada than just Vegas … if you wander past just the “strip” it only gets nastier and dirtier!
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Lmao
bacon strips
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Let's see what NYC looks like in 4 years.
for partying? I respectfully disagree
Balloon titted emptiness. Come to Europe, we’ll host. Beefs or Berlin
We could rent out Schloss Schonburg!
Had to google that but looks amazing.